NH Horses to follow 2015/2016

It's that time of year when us NH fans are looking forward to the proper jumping season getting started again. I love the flat but my passion like many others is the jumps, we see the horses for longer and we can love them for who they are over many seasons. I've said before that NH is more about love and passion while the flat is more of a business, it's what seperates the two. The longevity of the careers of the animal is also much different, we don't get a chance to love the flat horses like we do the jumpers, the great ones aren't around for long enough. The people involved in jumps racing do it because they love it, not because it's profitable to them, because it very rarely is. The horses are generally bigger, braver and stronger and seeing a thoroughbred soar over a big fence - doing something the horse itself loves doing; there is no greater spectacle in racing. I can't wait for it all to kick off again. And despite what many people say, yes, for a lot of people it IS all about Cheltenham Festival and in my mind there is nothing wrong with that at all. A four day bonanza of world class racing with the best jumps horses in the world doing what they do best, it's a great way to bring the curtain down on the jumps season. (Yes I know there is Aintree too!) Cheltenham is where the owners want runners, it's where the trainers want to train a winner and it's where the jockeys want to ride. When a new horse is bought into a yard, the first thing everyone wants to know is will this horse  be the one to take them to the festival. Hopefully a few below will do just that for their connections.

Novice Chasers:

VALUE AT RISK is held in the highest regard by his trainer, Dan Skelton and judged on his three starts for him last season you can see why. A demolition job on debut was followed up by a serious effort in what turned out to be a very strong race before his solid run in the Albert Bartlett where he was bang in contention before weakening after the last. He has always been seen as a chaser and is one to eagerly anticipate over fences this season, with the RSA his likely main aim, of which he can be backed at 20/1 at this early stage with most firms.

FOX NORTON dotted up on his first start over fences earlier in the year on debut for the rising Neil Mulholland yard. He already has graded form to his name from his days with Nick Williams and already looks a high class prospect for the season ahead. Something like the JLT may be on the agenda if he makes it to the festival but he'll win races this season for sure.

EMERGING TALENT like many Nicholls horses, was bought with chasing in mind. Whilst frustrating last season (three seconds and a fall when every chance) he can really make an impact over the bigger obstacles this time around for the champion trainer who excels with exactly this type of animal. He has had a good break and a wind op over the summer (who hasn't from his yard?!) and has been nominated by all sorts of people as one to follow from the yard this year. His Cheltenham target would either be the Arkle if he shows himself to be an out and out two miler, or the more likely step up to 2m4f in the JLT.

Coral Cup winner AUX PTITS SOINS is one of the more obvious and exciting contenders on the list. To win a Cheltenham Festival race on stable debut like he did suggests this horse is something very special, especially considering he was still babyish and made a few pretty bad blunders throughout the race. He is likely to have one hurdles run at Ascot at the end of November before going novice chasing and is already as short as 10/1 for the 2016 RSA. He'll be in everyone's notebook, but for good reason.

MINELLA ROCCO has only had the two starts over hurdles but was bought with chasing in mind and connections are wasting no time in sending this one over the bigger obstacles. He hasn't beaten an awful lot in his two starts to date but has done so with consummate ease and rates a really exciting prospect for the relentless JP McManus/Jonjo O'Neill partnership. Another who is likely RSA bound and could make up to a Gold Cup horse in a few seasons time. Big horse who will stay all day, the novice chasing division over 3m+ looks mouthwatering this season.

Cue Card may be past his best but the very exciting ROBINSFIRTH may be ready to take over stable star status this coming season. The form of his most recent start is extremely strong, with the likes of Thistlecrack, Value At Risk, Ordo Ab Chao, Present View and Vago Collonges making up the numbers that day. He was only beaten a couple of lengths before being put away - he has very much always been seen as a chaser and is the horse I am probably most looking forward to this year of any on this list. As I've just mentioned, the staying Novice Chasing division looks the strongest it has been for some time this season and this lad may end up being the top of the pile if he stays sound. His aforementioned stablemate Thistlecrack has been nominated by many but this lad is the one with more potential for me. A must follow this year.

Novice Hurdlers:

MA DU FOU can be forgiven his two starts at the back end of 2014 when still babyish and weak. He looked in trouble on debut when very well backed - green as grass before the penny finally dropped and he stormed clear, before two lesser efforts, after which he was put away for a long break. He would have matured mentally and physically over the sping and summer and three miles might end up being his trip. At this early stage, a target such as the Albert Bartlett may not be too far fetched if he makes the progress his trainer thinks he can. One to keep an eye out for as he progresses through the handicap this season.

WILLIAM HENRY confirmed the promise of his debut run on boxing day 2014 when winning a couple of bumpers as he liked in the spring. He had a short break and is now back in work and could be anything over hurdles this year. Two miles may end up being a bit sharp for him as the season goes on, but if he makes some serious progress over obstacles, a race like the Neptune could be where he ends up. Still early days but subject of very favourable recent reports from Nicky Henderson's open day.

PENGLAI PAVILION will probably be the only horse to ever run in an Arc at Longchamps and a novice hurdle round Hexham but it's his touch of class and raw flat speed that have seen him barely come off the bit in his two starts over timber to date. John Ferguson has had many similar types before and he's been waiting for the one horse that can give him a Festival winner and this lad may just be the best chance he will get this year. He'll probably line up in the Supreme on the opening day of which he can be backed at 33/1 antepost. Interesting to see how he progresses through the year.

BARTERS HILL may have his first big test in the Challow Hurdle at Newbury but is likely to make his seasonal reappearance at Huntingdon on November 1st before that. He was a big shell of a horse last year but remained unbeaten winning his four starts in bumpers. Ben Pauling's stable star has reportedly beefed up over the summer and has come back in a lot bigger and stronger for this campaign. He signed off by winning a Grade 2 at Aintree and could be the horse to fire his up and coming trainer into the spotlight this year.

MEET THE LEGEND is a bit of a wildcard addition to the list but a few people connected to the horse weren't surprised to see him win as he did on debut last month for Keith Dalgeish. The way he won (despite the probable lack of class in opposition) was very striking and it will be interesting to see where he goes next. He may pave his way in bumpers but I think he may want some obstacles and a step up in trip sooner rather than later and he could be sent novice hurdling in the New Year. May not be a superstar, but should improve upon debut when very keen and displaying signs of greenness before putting the race to bed very readily. Surefire winner again this season, could turn into a nice prospect for predominantly flat yard.

SEE THE WORLD ran the race of the season last year and needs no introduction. If you somehow missed his run on debut, I strongly urge you to watch it. For him to win going away as he did after what happened mid race was truly unbelievable. He was quickly nominated for the Champion Bumper but admirably connections decided to put him away and that decision may pay dividends this season as he embarks on a novice hurdle campaign. 2m 4f may end up being his trip this year and the Neptune is probably where he'll end up, can't wait to see this one out again.

CAPTAIN CHAOS landed a proper plunge at Newcastle in January of this year when heavily backed into around 4/1 from 20/1+ before dotting up as he liked. He has since been sold for six figures and is now in the care of Dan Skelton. The form hasn't had a chance to mount up to much yet but the way he was backed and the way he won suggests this horse should be winning his fair share of races this year and could turn out to be a very useful animal. One of the more intriguing ones on the list.

Summary:

Novice Chasers:

Value at Risk - FF921
Fox Norton - 123331
Emerging Talent - 41211
Aux Ptits Soins - 5
Minella Rocco - 3P621
Robinsfirth - Out for Season

Novice Hurdlers:

Ma Du Fou - 111P6
William Henry - Out for Season
Penglai Pavilion - 130
Barters Hill - 1114
Meet The Legend - 2513
See The World - 3P
Captain Chaos - 12712


Form and LSP:

31121131234F2P151716F923321211P13130411115P62

Final total: +2.37pts


Overall I think they are a really exciting but select few packed with potential and quality. A few obvious ones, a few dark horses and a few wild cards, I am really happy with this list, especially the Novice Chasers and I'll be pretty surprised if every horse mentioned above doesn't win at least one race this season. Get these in your trackers and let me know what you think on twitter @THTRacing. Feel free to tell me if you think I have missed one and please offer your own suggestions.

THT

Glorious Goodwood - Day Five

What a torrid week it has been for my wallet and I can only apologise to those of you good enough to follow me in, we win together and lose together but I'll stop there or I might end up sounding like King Kris. Today is the day I have been waiting for, and the day connections of a certain horse have been waiting for too. It may be obvious and it may even have a whiff of muggy about it but today's NAP is a strong one and at 16/1 we can make the money back and more if he does the business.

Barnet Fair is the horse in question. This is seemingly the only day in the calendar that matters for this horse this season and you won't have seen a more obvious plot for quite some time. You simply need to look at the replay of his last run to see what I mean, Hughesie never touched him but in the process got to know him and he will have a great chance of a winner on his final day in the saddle. At the end of the day, however it is a 28 runner sprint, so you need a lot of luck. 16/1 paying five places is a bet I can't fathom you not seeing some sort of return on though. He's on the same mark as when winning this last year and despite most riders barely moving on him this season, the most he has been beaten is by 5 lengths. If you are looking for some sort of coverbet then Go Far and Links Drive Lady could both go close both at a huge 40/1 and may be worth tidying your account balance on each way but this will hopefully be Barnet Fair's day.

John Gosden has won the Nassau the last three years and he looks to have a very strong hand with the exciting Bright Appraoch, (albeit chucked into the deep end with her pockets full of stones and her feet tied together) the never nearer Oaks runner Jazzi Top and the Prix De Diane winner Star Of Seville. It is the latter that I really like for this, she has some of the best form and was right there in the Oaks when badly hampered from which recovery was impossible. That trip was too far anyway and 10f is exactly what she wants as shown by her Group 1 win last time. Frankie and John Gosden have had a memorable season to say the least and this filly can add another feather in the cap of the rejuvenated partnership. At 7/1, I struggle to see how that doesn't stand out to the average punter as an extremely appealling each way proposition. Yes the favourite is very classy but she's been beaten the last twice and while the rest of the field are no pushovers, this looks the stable number one and she has the ideal profile for this race. The jockey is unbeaten when riding her and can make it four from four tomorrow and make it four in a row for the Gosden yard in this race in the process.

For a horse to carry top weight to victory in a race like the Stewards Cup, it has to be a Group level performer and that's exactly what Tropics is. It's disappointing to see Pat Cosgrave at Newmarket tomorrow instead of on this lad's back as I thought he gave him an exceptional ride the last day when only beaten a nose in the Group 1 July Cup at a huge price. That said Adam Kirby was successful the only time he was on board so hopefully it will make little difference. I presume the top weight statistics aren't great, they rarely are in a race of this nature but I think this horse has the neccessary talent to defy it. This is his first handicap run in two years, that run being this race two festivals ago when a never nearer sixth. Since then he has won a couple of listed races and a Group 3 and ran a clear career best last time when beaten a whisker by the rapidly improving Muharrar at Newmarket. This was nominated as his target straight after that race and he has to have a serious chance on that form despite shouldering a big weight. Huntsmans Close and especially Ninjago are the likely dangers but it's wide open and at 14/1 paying five places, this lad has to be the bet and is the real class angle on the race.

Ignoring a horse having a 100% course record isn't something I can usually do, especially at a unique track like Goodwood and especially when trained by Mark Johnston. Enlace is the horse in question and goes in the penultimate handicap. She's been well beaten of late, the latest only seven days ago but that gives us the appealling 10/1 price and reverted to her usual front running tactics returned to this course with my favourite jockey in the saddle, I can't not have a few quid each way. Saying that the yard runs three others in the race and knowing my luck this week I've backed completely the wrong one. She's the only course and distance winner in the field and I'm hopeful there may still be a bit of jucie left in her mark, worth a small punt I think.


Selections:

14.00 Barnet Fair 16/1 ew (5 places) NAP
15.10 Star Of Seville 7/1 ew NB
15.45 Tropics 14/1 ew (5 places) IWAC
16.55 Enlace 10/1 ew

It's been a tough week but this was the day I was looking forward to and I am confident we can turn the tables on Goodwood 2015. It's been a very lucky festival for me in the past and hopefully it's been saving a big final day.

Good luck if you follow, hopefully the faith will be rewarded.

THT

Glorious Goodwood Day Four

Happy I left yesterday alone, wouldn't have backed any of the winners except possibly the brilliant Shalaa, what an exciting prospect he is for the classics next season. Wednesday was a tough day but the small stakes involved meant it wasn't as painful as it could have been. On to Friday where I have two strong selections that should both take all the beating.

I was torn between two in the feature sprint but I'm siding with Cotai Glory over Moviesta. A classy two year old, he ran a massive race on reappearance where he was said to 'badly need the run' by his trainer only going down by a neck or so to the reopposing Out Do. He would have come on a bunch for that and it will have him absolutely spot on for this race, a welcome return to the course he was successful at last year in the Molecomb. He still has improvement in him and can take this on route to the Nunthorpe at York later in the season. I'll have a little on the RFC with Moviesta too, this race clearly been a target for a while, C/D winner and has every chance, not won for a while though and prefer the progressive younger horse here.

Seven furlongs looks like the perfect trip for Fadhayyil to continue her progression. She flew home last time at Royal Ascot when only going down by half a length to Dutch Connection who has since ran two superb races in Group company. The Barry Hills inmate had earlier ran a very solid race in the Guineas over a trip that now looks to have been too far, that as well as her bandage unravelling inside the final two furlongs which can't have been much help. She is the least exposed runner in this field and will hopefully get a good pace to aim at. She will be coming late and fast and can gain her first deserved success of the season.

Selections:

15.45 Cotai Glory 11/2
16.55 Fadhayyil 11/4

The double pays at 23/1 so having a few on that too.

Best of luck, hoping for a change in fortune.

THT

Glorious Goodwood Day Two

The opening day was a tough one in the end. The NAP didn't get the best of runs at a crucial stage but to be honest it would have only been place returns at best anyway. The NB was frustratingly beaten by his stablemate at a huge price, though not unbacked late on course. The IWAC ran a solid race coming from the back to finish a never nearer 3rd, SP 6/1 so there were a few having a few on each way, backed down from 12/1. Day two looks even tougher so I'm betting light.

The opening handicap is a devil to solve, partly because so many runners are unexposed over extreme trips like this one. One such horse is Aramist, who before his never dangerous tenth last time out in the Northumberland, was a model of consistency hitting the frame six starts in a row including a win at Hamilton a few runs back. Elidor gave his run at Newmarket a boost yesterday running a big race in a stronger heat off 106 and while this is a highish mark Aramist runs off today the new trip might be the difference. Ben Curtis also gets on well with the horse, he has won four times on him from the nine spins and he himself is having a good season in the saddle. Course form is important at Goodwood but the two course winners in the race don't make much appeal off their career high marks though last year's winner will probably run his race with James Doyle up. Aramist is one of those that always seems to do his best work late on and hopefully he can be picking them off late on coming from the rear - there are a few front runners in here, and if Boite goes off in front like he did last time this could be run to suit. At 22/1 paying 5 places with Ladbrokes, he is worth an each way tickle.

I'm takng a chance on Sunny Spirit in the maiden. Winter Rose looks the one to beat on the strength of her debut 3rd but not many of the others have the experience that this filly does. She ran a quiet race on debut held up in rear and never asked to close - a typical type from the yard. She improved on that run with the extra furlong no doubt a help when coming home well after missing the break and being short of room inside the final furlong. The winner of that race is a very highly regarded inmate of Hugo Palmer's and the way she stuck to her task was encouraging late on. There is no doubt she needs a bit more but it's eyecatching to see that the yard won this race last year with a very similar type. Worth also noting the trainer has a higher strike rate here than he does at any other course in the country and with all that considered, she looks well worth chancing at a generous each way price, providing she can put her experience to good use.

Serena Grae is certainly a chancey one and fitness is to be taken on trust after a near 300-day absence. She'd had enough of her long season when finishing ninth of nine on her final start of last season but was previously in great nick winning four of her previous six. She is a buzzy filly, the main reason behind her headgear and she usually likes to bowl along out in front. She might get an easy lead as many of her rivals are hold up types though the Godolphin runner has made the running the last twice. She looks the type to do some damage in handicaps off her mark in the next few months and if she's come on for her holiday and is ready to go, she should be therabouts at the business end. Also worth mentioning she is the only course winner in the field and her stable are in great nick with last five runners finishing 33121. At 16/1 paying four places, I'll chance her for a small stake.

I never like to back horses that have a tendency to hang and Saucy Minx is obviously a tricky customer judging by the hood/blinkers combination. That said I can't resist a small each way punt at 18/1 for a horse with a course record of 3/7. She was entered in a more valuable handicap and a Group 3 later in the week and connections have clearly had this festival in mind in her last few runs when she's been ridden fairly quietly out the back and it's interesting to see they've kept her in this rather than taking up her other entries. She's off a mark I think she can win off and a strongly run 7f could be exactly what she needs. The talented Kieran Shoemark claims a valuable 5lbs which can only aid her cause and she looks well worth chancing for a yard that rarely seems out of form.

Selections:

14.00 Aramist 22/1 ew (5 places with Ladbrokes) NAP
16.20 Sunny Spirit 14/1 ew NB
16.55 Serena Grae 16/1 ew (4 places) IWAC
17.30 Saucy Minx 18/1 ew (4 places)

It's not a day to go mad on by any means but a few quid on the each way singles and a little each way yankee will keep me interested. Better opportunites to come in the next few days. Enjoy the racing and best of luck if you follow.

THT

Glorious Goodwood - Day 1

It's finally upon us, my favourite flat racing festival of the year. Royal Ascot is all well and good but it's Glorious Goodwood that I most look forward to each and every year on the level. The unique nature of the track and atmosphere, as well as my own punting success there over the last few years is what makes it special for me. My approach on reading the average race is often unorthodox at best and while usually hit and miss it's that style that seems to work here, a peculiar track with unexpected results the norm. Mark Johnston targets this meeting every single year and I fancy a couple of his on the opening day, hopefully he can get off to a good start.

Long term followers will know that Sennockian Star is a horse I have backed several times this year. 12/1 is a huge price and I can't believe he is that big paying four places despite the fact it's a naturally competitive opening race. He won this race last year off 1lb higher and gets on ever so well with Franny Norton with form figures before last run of 14112. He is a course and distance winner, won't mind the ground having won on it before and for the yard renowned for winners at this festival he is the best bet you will find on day one of the festival for me.

Notarised is the only C/D winner in the field in the 3.45 and this makes him of interest despite only fair odds of 8/1. He beat a fair few of these when winning gamely last time meaning he is up in the handicap for that but won well here two starts before and on that form he is porbably just about the one to beat here. He's won three of his last five and could be allowed his own way up front; it's naturally wide open but he's worth a small each way bet at those odds though not one I'm going mad on.

Top Boy really should have won last time and could be the answer to the 16.20 sprint handicap. The favourite has been ultra progressive dropped to 5f this year and did it nicely last time. That said carrying top weight on a totally different track is enough to put you off especially at the likely skinnyish odds. My alternative is from a yard I rarely back but the horseusually runs his race, despite not quite getting his head in front as much as he should. He won a valuable sprint at York last season and is currently in good form and off a very winnable mark. He enjoys a bit of cut in the ground and if the rider can get the fractions right he can go very close here at a double figure price.

Selections:

14.00 Sennockian Star 12/1 ew (4 places) NAP
15.45 Notarised 8/1 ew NB
16.20 Top Boy 12/1 ew IWAC

I quite fancy these three, especially the NAP. Good luck if you follow, hopefully it will be a profiitable week again.

Royal Ascot Day 5

Another great day's racing at Royal Ascot, the feature being won by French raider Ervedya nailing Found close home with the running on Lucida back in third - three very high class fillies all running their hearts out, great to see. Muhaarar was talked up plenty by his trainer, he said he was the horse he was most looking forward to running - having already had a winner, maybe the signs were there - a stunning performace, destroying a high class field, has the world at his feet now. Illuminate was another one very well talked up by trainer and jockey and she won the first very nicely. They went fast early doors but she quickened and won like a very exciting horse for the future - quotes already being thrown about for the Guineas. Other winners included Aloft in the finale, holding on from Keith Dalgleish's Tommy Docc that I mentioned being a big price yesterday when 66/1. The NB Vive Ma Fille led all the way to inside the final furlong where she hung quite badly and Fanning had to stop riding, frustratingly this had enough effect to see her nailed for 3rd close home denying healthy place money at 33/1. Watersmeet had earlier run a good race, but annoyingly finished one outside the places and the 50/1 IWAC ran like a 50/1 shot in all honesty! On to the fifth and final day.


Whilst Mahsoob looks a potential Group horse, I'm not letting Sennockian Star go off at 20/1 without a few of my hard earned on his back. He is one of the toughest handicappers out there, even by Mark Johnston standards and takes his racing so very well. He has won two of his last three and was only beaten two lengths in this last year. He now races off a 4lb lower mark and sneaks in off bottom weight. Franny Norton gets on particularly well with him, having been successful on three of the four ocassions he has ridden him. Worth also noting he is the only course and distance winner in the entire field. The re-opposing Collaboration has given him a decent beating a couple of times but he is better off at the weights here and can race under different conditions. Him and the unbeaten favourite, however will be well fancied to run well but this lad has to be in the mix with his usual front running style, on ground he has an exceptional record on.

Cracking renewal of the Hardwicke and Telescope is sure to be all the rage. However, Sir Michael Stoute runners have had a very strange week, three have been pulled up - whether it's desperate bad luck or something stopping them, I'm not sure. On best form he is the one to beat but I'd much rather side with Luca Cumani's Postponed who has been crying out for a return to a mile and a half. He ran a screamer over an inadequate trip in ground conditions that weren't ideal last time out when only beaten half a length in the Group 1 in Ireland - the form being advertised earlier in the week with the very unlucky Grey Gatsby going down by a nostril in the Prince Of Wales Stakes. He is 2/2 when racing over further than 1m2f and the never out of form yard of Luca Cumani can notch their first success of the week at Royal Ascot here. 7/2 is a very fair price as the rest shouldn't be good enough unless Eagle Top comes on leaps and bounds for his disappointing reappearance run.

I have to say I rarely back any Aidan O'Brien trained horse - usually because it is underpriced and overhyped but I still think there is a bit of juice in the price of Due Dilligence tomorrow in the Diamond Jubilee. He's clearly been prepared for this since he was a close 2nd in last year's renewal and you can totally ignore his reappearance run. Despite the big field and seemingly competitive nature of the race, there are only one or two that really stand out as top notchers and this lad is one of them. If the favourite is as good as the Australian's seem to think he is, then we will only be getting place money returns but at 7/1 he is a very solid each way bet here. With the best jockey in the world in the plate and O'Brien horses under him running to form figures of 321161121421 this week, he has to be the play as the favourite is a total unknown.

I've been waiting for Huntsman's Close to run again since his superb reappearance run when short-headed at Newmarket. He has really improved since joining Roger Charlton and he is well up to winning a big handicap like this. He sneaks in off near bottom weight off a rating of 98 which may underestimate him despite this being a career high mark. He won the Silver Cup at Ayr on his final start last year and seems to enjoy racing in big fields. The Wokingham was a nominated target early in the season and he looks to have a favourites chance with the very talented William Buick in the plate. The trainer had a very nice filly run a close second in a big handicap earlier in the week and he'll be hoping this lad can go one better. 12/1 available but is 11/1 paying 6 places with one firm so I've backed him with them. Of course you need a lot of luck in running but everything looks set for a big run.



Selections:

15.05 Sennockian Star 20/1 ew (4 places) 2ND
15.40 Postponed 7/2 3rd
16.20 Due Dilligence 7/1 ew
17.00 Huntsman's Close 11/1 ew (6 places) NR

THT

Royal Ascot Day 4

A double on day one, a treble on day two and another treble on day three at Royal Ascot for man of the moment Ryan Moore, what a jockey he is, and it could have even been another if he had gotten a bit more luck in running in the feature on Kingfisher. Pandora ran a shocker and was eased right out of it as if something was amiss - better was expected. Curvy was the winner - frustrating as I had it between the two. The big handicap I also liked two but went with the wrong one again, Emirates Airline never involved, Rotherwick my other fancy ran a big race for fifth in the Britannia. Scottish ran a screamer in the last but just couldn't quite get up, nice horse to keep onside. Overall ended the day with a small loss but as it was only half stakes not too much damage done at all. On to day four where I've gone for a huge Johnston double and an overpriced Ralph Beckett filly.

The Albany is a total minefield and it's becoming a cliche this week but I usually try and avoid these events unless one really stands out. Illuminate, the favourite, was given a glowing reference by her trainer earlier in the week and could well turn out to be a very nice filly but there are seven other horses that have ran just once and won so 3/1 isn't the type of price I would take in a field like this with so many unknowns. Races like these aren't shy of throwing up a few big priced winners and I'm hopeful of more of the same this year. Miss Moneypenny is the horse in question. She ran an encouraging race on debut running on strongly close home after being badly bumped coming out of the stalls and the winner advertised the form with a very bold showing in the Queen Mary earlier in the week. She then progressed to win her maiden on her second start before being chucked in the deep end at Epsom in the Woodcote. Buratino formlines are working out well already and the subsequent Coventry winner dotted up there but this filly was in the mix for the places behind. That was a solid run and Beckett doesn't enter his horses unless he thinks they have a genuine chance of bringing home some prize money. She's related to 2yo 6f Group 1 winners and while she probably isn't quite up to that level herself, she can put her experience to good use here and shouldn't mind the open track having run at HQ on debut. Don't get me wrong, she is an outsider, if she was 20-25/1 I would have probably thought fair enough and passed her over. However, at 50/1 I can't resist a very small each way punt although being paid only three places is very frustrating in a race like this. Just a tickle for me and the IWAC for day four.

The penultimate race on day four is a mile and a half handicap and the one I like the look of is Mark Johnston's Watersmeet. They grey son of Dansili has shown significant improvement this year rising through the handicap to the tune of 26lbs. His improvement is showing no signs of stopping and despite being up in the weights he can give Joe Fanning his first winner of the week. He completed a quick-fire hattrick at the start of the season before looking the likely winner 1f out in a competitive Newmarket handicap before hanging terribly inside the final furlong and completely throwing the race away. His tendency to hang is a slight negative, especially at a wide open track like Ascot but he was better last time when resuming his progress winning a similar handicap to this one, beating a very decent field. While he probably needs to improve a few pounds again, the front runner is the one to go with each way with bookmakers paying four places and will need a very good showing here if he is to take up his engagement in a Newmarket Group 2 next month. I make him the best each way bet of the day and he gets the NAP treatment.

Vive Ma Fille has been quietly progressing at what in time may have turned out to be an inadequate trip. She has been screaming for a step up in distance, shown clearly by her last run where she was badly outpaced before rallying well and finishing with a rattle to come 2nd by the reopposing winner (who looks pricey at 66/1). She has long been under consideration for a run at Royal Ascot and connections clearly feel they have seen enough to warrant a place here. She has a few pounds to find but this new trip can be the making of her and she can make a bold bid for the same trainer/jockey that won this race last year with a similar horse moving up in trip from around 1m4f. How Aloft can be bordering even money is a farce, only ever raced at a mile and been off 237 days - also the trainer has turned to a tongue tie and cheekpeices - hardly encouraging and despite posessing the best form as a 2yo he is a joke of a price in my opinion. That said Moore/O'Brien are in scintillating form so may let this one get away without pressing the pink button. Fabricate I am more worried about, progressive, well regarded and likely to stay but with that one at 7/1 and this filly at 33/1 I know what I'll be backing.

Selections:

14.30 Albany Stakes - Miss Moneypenny 50/1 each way
17.00 DOE Stakes - Watersmeet 14/1 each way (4 places)
17.35 Queens Vase - Vive Ma Fille 33/1 each way

THT

Royal Ascot Day 3

Well what a frustrating, yet profitable day yesterday was. All three selections came 2nd at each way prices, beaten under a length in total between them. The Grey Gatsby was definitely the most unlucky, boxed in by Dettori on the Gosden runner until mercifully, the gap came and the Kevin Ryan stable star chased after Free Eagle who had got first run. The line came a stride too soon, and Spencer will certainly have been venting his frustrations in the weighing room no doubt! Before that, Fadhayill ran a screamer in the Jersey stakes, beaten half a length by the trainer's son, who led home a Hills family 1-2 in the opener. Later on in the card, Temptress showed her potential, quietly weaving her way through the field on the far side but just getting done close home by GM Hopkins of the never out of form Gosden yard and yet another winner for Ryan Moore who doubled up on the day. The Charlton filly is certainly one to keep in your notebooks, she will be plying her trade in pattern company from now on. All in all another very solid day, that's four placed and one winner from six selections so far, all at each way prices, hopefully more of the same going on into the later part of the week.

The Ribblesdale and indeed the entire day three card looks very competitive and pretty tricky to solve. The progressive Curvy now has the services of Ryan Moore and at 8/1 I can totally understand those siding with her in the each way market. The Irish 1000 winner does look very much the one to beat however, and looks likely though far from certain to stay. The Cumani filly is the exact type of horse the trainer excels with and that one looks likely to run a big race but I'm siding with Pandora, at a bigger price than all those mentioned above. I won't be going mad, but her last run took a huge boost when Star Of Seville won a very competitive Prix De Diane in France the other day and she is certainly no 12/1 shot here with further improvement expected. Connections had once considered the Oaks but have really had this race lined up ever since her run in the Musidora. She is a big filly, is expected to improve for the step up in trip and can give Charlie Hills his second winner at this year's Royal Meeting.

There is a bit of a gamble brewing on War Envoy in the Britannia and I can sort of understand why. There are plenty of improving and unexposed types elsewhere and it is an utter minefield so just a small each way punt for me. Rotherwick can go well to boost that Jack Hobbs/Stravagante formline even more but one I like at a bigger price is one of the Godolphin foursome. Emirates Airline had two runs as a two year old, both disappointing efforts considering his price in the market on both occasions. The summer break/gelding operation and step up in trip from sprinting seemed to work the magic when he won with any amount in hand in a Chelmsford handicap on reappearance. He has since ran once more, finishing a length behind Dissolution, who is favourite for the race after this at time of writing and that form could turn out to be okay. This is before you consider that the 10f trip stretched him that day and he was far too keen - a strongly run race over this trip could be exactly what this horse needs to be shown to best effect. He also gets a hood first time which can only help his cause and should help him to settle a little better. If everything comes together he could run a very big race under Harry Bentley - backing his mounts would have you operating at a very impressive £85 LSP this season. As I say, just a small bet and you need a lot of luck but paying 6 places at 28/1 he is worth a play. (33/1 available but only 4 places)

The closing handicap on Day 3 has the aforementioned Dissolution as favourite and he has already been popular and no longer an each way price for me. He has solid claims stepping up in trip but at 11/1 so does Scottish. He was only just nailed by Mr Singh of Gosden's yard two starts back, who runs in a Group 2 later in the week. He improved from that run to make all last time beating off another Gosden inmate who has since made a mockery of a mark of 86 making Socttish look fairly treated off 91, especially now moving up in trip which looks sure to suit. The worry in a field of this size is that the competition for the lead may be fierce but I don't think he has to lead to be seen to best effect. This is a step up in class but the Balding inmate is open to improvement and the jockey nominated him as one of his best rides of the week (already had a winner) Paying four places, he looks worth an each way play at 11/1 in the finale.

A note of caution - a very trappy day today so I'm playing at half stakes and done a little each way trixie as well as each way singles - don't give all the profit we've made in the last two days straight back to the bookies! Much better racing later in the week to wait for.

Selections:

15.40 Ribblesdale - Pandora 12/1 each way
17.00 Britannia - Emirates Airline 28/1 each way (six places)
17.35 King George V - Scottish 11/1 each way (four places) 2ND

THT

Royal Ascot - Day 2

Cracking opening day at Ascot. Ryan Moore stole the show with a treble but arguably the most impressive perofmance of the day was Buratino who we made our NAP in the Coventry. Always travelling well, he hit the front at the furlong pole and Buick needn't have carried his stick, hugely exciting horse going forward. Sole Power just had too much to do and his ageing legs couldn't make up the ground quick enough in the Kings Stand, but he ran creditably finishing a close enough 5th. Noble Silk was the IWAC and ran a very good race to finish fourth in the Ascot Stakes, landing some tidy each way profit at early price of 33/1. All in all, a very solid start. On to day two.

Ivawood is the red hot favourite in the opener and Richard Hughes has called him the banker of the week. While he obviously has a leading chance, I'm keen to take him on with a solid each way alternative. Two of the last five runnings have been won by fillies and with FADHAYILL coming back in trip to 7f, it may be another that takes the Jersey stakes this year. She was only beaten a length by Lucida on her final 2yo start and reappeared with a huge run in the Guineas to finish 5th, this despite a front bandage causing all sorts of problems in the final furlong. She drops in class and drops in trip and has always been very well regarded, she can run into a place at the very least here and may give the favourite most to think about, Grab 10/1 while you can, it won't last.

It's always nice to get a big price about a runner with the best form going into a race (like Buratino yesterday) and it's the case again tomorrow in the Prince Of Wales Stakes. Kevin Ryan has often said that THE GREY GATSBY doesn't get the credit he deserves, and judged by the fact you can get 13/2 about a multiple Group 1 winner who is rated 6lbs higher than his nearest rival in the race, suggests he may be right. Yesterday Solow boosted the form of his 2nd In Meydan two starts back and while his run in Ireland was underwhelming, he was only beaten two lengths. Jamie Spencer can be hit and miss but will hopefully get it right tomorrow, he is very possibly the each way bet of the entire meeting and I certainly wouldn't put you off a sizeable each way punt. That said I'm backing him for the win - on 2014 form he would be different gravy to these, it isn't the strongest renewal, and while Free Eagle is an unknown quantity, 11/4 makes no appeal compared to the grey, no brainer for me and my NAP on day 2.

A 30 runner handicap is the type of race I barely even look at but when you feel there is a potential Group level horse running off near bottom weight, you have to have a play. TEMPTRESS is the horse in question. She absolutely dotted up on reappearance over C/D of which she is 2/2. She was only raised 7lbs for that performace which is a huge underestimation in my eyes. Roger Charlton's filly looks to have really come on over winter and he was quoted as saying 'we will definitely be looking to get some bacak type with her,' in a recent stable tour. This is a (very competitive) handicap and she looks sure to run well before going on to bigger and brighter things later in the season. She's the least exposed runner in the field and highly progressive, the ideal profile for a race like this, she'll be coming late and fast.  The progressive Speculative Bid is the main worry but going back up to 1m may be his undoing in ths stronger race and at a smidgen bigger, I'm happy to side with Temptress at 14/1.


Selections:

14.30 Jersey Stakes - Fadhayill 10/1 each way 2ND
16.20 Prince Of Wales - The Grey Gatsby 13/2 2ND
17.00 Royal Hunt Cup - Temptress 14/1 each way (5 places) 2ND

THT

Royal Ascot - Day 1

A scintillating five days racing are in order with several of the world's best horses on show. Filled with mouthwatering clashes, potential superstars and multiple Group 1 winning performers strutting their stuff - it is sure to live up to it's reputation yet again. Here are my selections for Day 1 of the best flat racing festival in the world.

Godolphin have a strong hand on the opening day of the festival with Night Of Thunder and the more intriguing Steady Pace hoping to give the boys in blue a better time of it than last year with just the one winner over the five days in a handicap. That said, I was really taken aback with Buratino's performace in the Woodcote at the Derby meeting, especially as he missed the break and was then a little keen early on. Despite that race not usually being associated with Coventry winners, he has always been held in the highest regard by his trainer who has an exceptional bunch of 2yos at his disposal. The way he travelled and then sprinted clear was very much in the style of a Coventry winner in my mind. Ascot, is of course a very different track but he ran well here on his second start and also won well at Newmarket so he should handle it just fine. The market for this race is formed upon hype and potential, but this fellow has arguably the best form on offer and can improve further still. At 8/1, he rates the best each way bet on Day 1 to me.

Sole Power can make history by winning the sprint for a third time, and with 4/1 still available in a place or two, he is well worth backing to do just that. Despite being an 8yo now, he is still one of the fastest horses in the world and looks too classy for the rest of these. You can completely ignore his reappearance run, 6f on soft ground was never going to suit him and he wasn't knocked about either. 5f on rattling ground is ideal and he loves Ascot, in my mind he's a 9/4 shot and even that's being generous. Muthmir ran a career best last time and he looks the only real danger, though hasn't run here before and has flopped on big wide open tracks in the past - it's Sole Power's to lose.

Noble Silk has always promised a big handicap prize and this could be his day in the 2m4f Ascot Stakes. He shapes as if this new trip will bring the best out of him, usually galloping on strongly in the closing stages from well off the pace. He will come on a bunch for his reappearance when he wasn't knocked about and that will have him set up perfectly for this. Oisin Murphy has ridden him twice before, winning last time he was in the saddle. He has course form too having come 3rd over an inadequate trip doing all his best work at the finish. He likes to weave his way through a big field and this race should really suit him. He will be coming through the field late, and at a general 25/1 but still 33/1 in a place, he rates a cracking each way proposition with firms paying four places. Fun Mac may be the one to be most wary of judged by his demolition job on reappearance - this new trip could help him too but at 7/1 vs this fella at 33/1, it's a no brainer.

Selections:

3.05 Coventry Stakes: Buratino 8/1 each way - WINNER

3.40 King's Stand Stakes: Sole Power 4/1

5.00 Ascot Stakes: Noble Silk 33/1 each way (4 places) PLACED

THT

Cheltenham Ramblings

 There are so many numbers, horses and races going through my head that I felt the need to get some of it written down. This won't be detailed or structured in any way, hence the title. I'll just share what I hear about potential race targets etc and will also be updating it frequently. Long term followers will know that I believe doing the rounds on the Cheltenham Festival preview evenings is invaluable and will be doing so again this year. More than anything they are a great laugh and you always hear a few exclusives and a bit of inside information or the odd anecdote or two from a member of the panel, typically filled with jockeys, trainers and tipsters, all good fun. All of the good bits will be posted below. I have only made a few decent sized ante-post bets but have dotted the cash around here and there on a few others. Will use this space to ramble on like I am already doing and we haven't even started. Please feel free to get involved on Twitter @THTRacing - I love hearing everyone's views and thoughts, usually far more sturctured and accurate than my own. Cheers for reading, hope what follows comes in useful or is at least an interesting read. Please keep checking every week or so, it will be updated all the way up to the night before the Festival kicks off.

Starting with the opening race of the meeting and Douvan looks all the rage. We heard about him before he had seen a racetrack for Mullins and put him up on our NH horses to follow 2015. He has since won both of his starts without coming out of second gear but at 5/2-9/4 makes no appeal whatsoever to me. I have heard on Twitter that certain people paid to know this stuff believe that the JP McManus owned Alvisio Ville is just as good if not just that little bit better than Douvan and I have backed him at 10/1 as there shouldn't be such a difference in price. He will be seen again before the festival so we will see where we stand after his next run but at 5/2 Douvan and 10/1 for the lesser exposed Alvisio Ville, it's a no brainer for me. There has been a midweek plunge on Alvisio Ville for the Neptune so looks like I have backed him for the wrong race. The perils of antepost betting! After disappointing last run I'm binning this slip and tbh won't be expecting much back from Neptune bet either. L'Ami Serge really impressed me last time. He didn't beat many horses but Dan Skelton's Shelford is no mug and Harry Fry's horse could be nice and he made them both look very very average. Whether he will like the hustle and bustle of a big field and a blistering pace, as well as the stiff finish, is a different matter but certainly looks a nice weapon for Simon Munir, who has a few exciting novices this year. I am on LS for a few quid at 14/1, he is around the 5/1 mark at time of writing. War Sound made a very impressive start to his career at Exeter and looks to be held in the highest regard. He is 33/1 for the Supreme and Neptune at the time of writing, if he beats Emerging Talent, especially if impressive he could come right to the fore of the markets. Has to be worth an each way tickle for interest in both just in case he is the real deal. Has the name of a proper horse too. Ran very disappointingly but race wasn't run to suit and the huge delay before the race can't have been ideal for such an inexperienced horse. Potentially worth another chance but needs to learn to settle, a strongly run Supreme or Neptune will suit if he goes to the Festival. Now looks a NR for the Supreme so another slip in the bin!! Alvisio Ville now back on track for this race. Seen suggestions he ran out of puff last time whereas I originally thought he had been outpaced. Either way he is probably worth another chance and I'll have a bit of 20/1 before that disappears to go with earlier slips. A place would be great, more bets riding on him than I thought.

Ante-post bets:

L'Ami Serge 14/1 - unplaced
Alvisio Ville 20/1 - unplaced

The Arkle is an interesting one and my main ante-post bet will hopefully be in the line up. Un De Sceaux has beaten everything asked of him in impressive fashion apart from when he fell, though the substance of the form is yet to be tested. There are rumours he will be off to France instead but I hope they aren't true, would love to see him at the festival, and so would my wallet! He is now the 9/4 fav and I can't say I would back him at that price now. It doesn't look the best renewal but Gilgamboa and Josses Hill are very worthy of their place, the latter is a slightly bigger price than I expected at 12/1 despite being unimpressive last time. Vibrato Valtat is a horse I have backed plenty before but would only imagine a place at best for that one. I would be very disappointed if he could handle the likes of Un De Sceaux anyway. I did hear that Vautour is being aimed at this race from someone usually very reliable. Problem is one man says one thing and another says JLT and there will even be one or two suggesting QMCC still. I hope he goes to the JLT to leave this for UDS but if UDS does go to France then Vautour looks huge at 8/1 if he is coming here. There has been a few quid for him and is as short as 5's with a few firms. He is also that price for JLT, so if you aren't sure you could always back him for both. Will hold a favourites chance wherever he ends up. Gilgamboa is also shorter price for the JLT than this so not really sure what to make of it all at the moment. I just hope UDS runs because he will pay for the week in just the second race of the four day festival. Clarcam worth a mention too, looked a different horse since his wind operation and this is his likely target, being backed too. Screw the rest, after his unreal performance at Leopardstown he showed how good he really was and if he gets there fit and well on the morning he just needs a clear round to win it. He had a turn of foot like a world class horse and made some serious horses look very ordinary. What can beat him? The occasion possibly, he wears earplugs anyway and can get worked up. This is my only concern and it's very minor. He will go off in front and won't be troubled, Ruby couldn't pull him up at the end of the last run and he stayed 20f on heavy over hurdles in France so claims of 'won't get up the hill' are total nonsense. There are zero serious reasons to oppose this horse. He just has to jump, like all the rest I suppose. Banker.

Ante-post bets:

Un De Sceaux 6/1, 5/1, 4/1 - Winner

The Champion Hurdle doesn't look the best renewal in the world but maybe that's unfair as last year's was such a cracker. Will be great to see TNO vs Jezki vs Faugheen up the hill though. Faugheen could take some pegging back mind. Nothing else should get involved unless The Fly runs again in which case I'll be cheering the old boy on. No bet. I just wish poor Our Conor was still here, that ruined the festival for me last year losing him, smashing horse, great looker too. I have decided to have a little ante-post punt, but it is a small one. As I said above this is a race to watch but Arctic Fire may still be a little underestimated in the market and Mullins' comments in the RP caught the eye. Probably only place money and wouldn't be my strongest bet but little tickle anyway for some interest. Promises to be a cracker.

Ante-post bets:

Arctic Fire 20/1 - placed

Mares Hurdle looks to be Annie Power's to lose if she is fit and if she runs. I'm on Aurore D'Estruval for a few quid at 9/1 after she impressed me earlier in the season, I'm happy where I stand here but if Annie Power runs I will be collecting each way money only I think. Wouldn't back her at current price mind. Since been ruled out due to injury.

The Neptune at time of writing is wide open. It's 8/1 the field and it's anybody's guess but one horse I have backed at this stage is Tell Us More. Got nailed on the line by stablemate Mckinley earlier in the year suggesting a potential drop in trip which brings the Supreme into play. (20/1) People saying TUM has more speed than Douvan etc but in my opinion Tell Us More is the Mullins main Neptune horse. Excuses were made for his defeat to his stablemate but we will see what TUM has to offer in March. That said 25/1 does look fair enough for Mckinley. Don't be suprised if the trainer makes some unexpected and drastic moves though. I can't resist a punt on Our Sam either for Henderson. His stable debut form is bulletproof and he is out again today with a leading chance, as the Neptune is so wide open he could be the new favourite if he does something special later on. Despite winning his race they aren't planning on a tilt at the Neptune as I understand. Therefore am scratching my bet. Of course I'll still have the slip just in case things change but very likely they won't. He is a potential for the Albert Bartlett too but skipping the festival looks the likely option at this stage. Despite completely missing the plunge on Alvisio Ville, 8/1 is still a fair price in a wide open Neptune. As I mentioned above, he is apparently the real deal, so i'll have a little on him for this race. Still 8/1 the field but won't be if he wins today. Ran disappointingly and now 20/1 again, will have a couple on that in case they find something wrong but Albert Bartlett a potential possibly? << Since been confirmed he goes to the Supreme so that mad plunge on him before he ran last time was cash down the drain. Nichols Canyon now heads the market but it's still wide open, Outlander has to have a great chance too and the Neptune is said to be right up his street and more to come from him. Tell Us More has hit a few funny prices on the machine and isn't working that well at home either supposedly. Looks like another one down the drain but will still keep hoping for now. Supreme bound!

Not backed anything in the RSA but if Don Poli heads there he will hold every chance. 5/1 for both him and King's Palace make limited appeal however. Coneygree is a horse I have followed this year and I would love him to run well but whether he quite has the class to win an RSA I am not so sure. What a performance from Coneygree at the weekend, looks the real deal to me. Looks as if the Gold Cup cpuld now be on the cards after jumping and travelling supremely well. Hope he runs a big one, lovely horse. Looks a cracker and I have now included Don Poli in a few multiples here and there. He is the one they all have to beat but I won't be playing anything as a single in this with any great confidence.

The QMCC laregley revolves around one animal. The magnificent Sprinter Sacre not been seen since pulling up with an apparent heart murmur. Due to run today and is as short as 10/11 which offers no value to me at all. IF they have him back to his best and IF he still retains his ability and that heart problem hasn't hindered his exuberance or jumping prowess then fair enough. But they are big if's and I won't listen to any argument suggesting that to be value. The second favourite for the QMCC Sire De Grugy is biggish at 5/1 but then he has had his injury problems too. If SS doesn't run, that 5/1 will quickly become 5/2 and probably shorter. The one I will chance despite never personally warming to the horse is Champagne Fever. Despite being tried in the King George (and running very respectably) 2 miles is his optimum trip and with doubts about the front two he has to be value at 10/1 despite the fact he is also entered up and well fancied by some for the Ryanair. Al Ferof would be a fascinating contender and it could be the day everything falls right for him but nothing else should be classy enough to win. If Dodging Bullets or Uxizandre can win a QMCC then it is a weak renewal, fact. The two greys are the interesting runners, but I couldn't put you off taking some 5/1 about Sire De Grugy too. Sprinter Sacre ran a good race on reappearance despite not winning and you would be a fool to rule him out. He will come on for the run an awful lot and Barry wasn't overly hard on him. Whether he is quite the same horse I don't know, we will find out on the day. He is a juicy price IF they get him back. Sire De Grugy was probably about 80% fit on reappearance from a serious injury but still travelled with menace before unseating Jamie Moore a few from home. He will come on a lot for that, and connections won't mind what happened yesterday. He will be 100% on QMCC day and 7/1 now makes him extremely backable each way at least. Could boil down to a two horse race with the mighty Sprinter Sacre because at both these horses' best, they are a class apart, but I'll take some 7/1 about SDG at the bigger price and with less to prove. Since showed he is still top class with some unreal leaps and despite conceding lumps of weight his class shone through. You won't find that 7/1 now and with SDG and Champagne Fever on side, I can't see how I won't see a return on this race. 

Ante Post bets: 

Champagne Fever 10/1 - NR

Sire De Grugy 7/1 - unplaced

I am ashamed to admit I have backed three horses all trained by one man in the Champion Bumper. Bellshill, Bordini and at a huge price a few of my hard earned on Fulham Road. (NR) Looking over this blog again it looks like I have backed everything of Mullins' but looking at his record at the fesitval this could be no bad thing. In race like this I just back what I am told by people who know better than me so that's what I have done, am sure you will have picked out your own. Just three little plays more for interest for me tbh, not a race I play heavily in. Let's just hope they all come home safe which very sadly they didn't last year. I did the same then too, backing a horse I was told to back. Stack The Deck was held in the highest regard but broke down in the race and was put to sleep, a huge loss to the yard. The cruel irony being that it is the one and only flat race of the week. Christ knows what he beat but you need some engine to do what See The World did on racecourse debut. The stiff finish at Cheltenham will suit and if following a straighter course he surely has to be bang there. He was well regarded anyway and they are good judges over there. No concrete plans yet but it will certainly be in the pipeline and 25/1 looks huge with Paddy Power when you watch this back: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=BL7zEXIboW0 - Now a NR after scoping badly. Shame, but still a fascinating prospect. Just an update on Bellshill. I keep hearing things every week that make me put another few quid on each way and as it stands he would be my best result of the festival. This was the main one I was given months back by someone in the know who says forget the markets or the media, Bellshill is the Mullins number one. With things I am hearing weekly he isn't wrong, I will be investing a few quid each week or everytime I put up a winner. Still a huge price.

Ante-post bets:

Belshill 25/1 (best bet) - unplaced

Bordini 16/1 - unplaced

The JLT is the biggest puzzle for me at the moment. Everyone has their own thoughts and opinions but mine are the following. I think Valseur Lido won't run unless he fails to stay his first try at 3m this Sunday. I think Vautour is a huge price if he does run which seems to be looking likelier and likelier now. Close Touch is one to keep on side. He is right up there with the best of Henderson's Novices and came back from injury with a facile success last time. He lines up again today and I think he is the real deal and this is his target race. 12/1 won't exist come 1pm I don't think and he's my main play each way. One other horse that has slipped under the radar is Vroum Vroum Mag. The mare looks smart, another weapon in the Ricci artillery and at 16/1 is worthy of a few quid each way as she looks likely to line up and will have a handy mares allowance too. Not a massive bet at this stage, can't wait to see how the Mullins team is deployed for this one but if VL goes RSA and Vautour goes for the Arkle then VVM will be the yard's number one on the day and 16/1 will be long gone. Small each way, Close Touch my main bet. Close Touch ran a stinker finishing last of four but he lost a shoe, was hampered and never travelled that well plus bounce factor could also have played a part. Worth another chance I think especially if ground turns up soft and is now out to 25/1 which is worth a few extra quid each way. Gilgamboa is my latest addition and is a replacement for Vroum Vroum Mag as she now looks unlikely to line up. This race now looks the surefire target for Gilgamboa after being outpaced in UDS race at Leopardstown. He wasn't given a hard time and the greater stamina test should suit. Vautour looks hard to beat but this race isn't strong and standout 14/1 with Paddy Power offers plenty of each way profit at the least. Seems I got Close Touch all wrong. Awful and pretty hopeless run last time, still think a bigger field and softer ground could see him in better light but has to be unlikely to turn up now so binning this slip. Gilgamboa also beaten so a terrible day for my JLT bets, the perils of AP betting. Gilgamboa is a top class horse and Cheltenham will suit him. Now out to 25/1 and in a weak looking JLT I am going to keep the faith for a good run for my money. << Since been scratched and I can see why tbh. Completely ballsed the JLT up ante-post, hope I have better luck on the day!

One of my favourite horses in training looks likely to be heading to the Ryanair and I can't not back him at a standout 8/1. (Cut to 6/1 after beating Champagne Fever) Please take the opportunity to go and see him in the paddock if you are at the festival this year, some brute. Dynaste will run his race as always, Cue Card could place but he's not the same horse he was a year or two ago and the next few in the market are either not good enough or aren't running in this race. With Dynaste ruled out for the season I had to look at this race again. Don Cossack is now the favourite but wanted to find another at a big each way price. Ummed and ahhed until someone I really respect on Twitter made a case for Ballynagour. Trip too far last time, very effective when fresh and bolted up here last year in the Byrne Plate. With the stablemate out this horse now looks Pipe's number one and at a huge 33/1 he has to be an each way play dropping back down in trip, with this race looking the likely target.

Ante-post bets:

Don Cossack 8/1 - placed 

Ballynagour 33/1 - NR

More of That is quite tempting at 4/1 but the World Hurdle makes limited appeal to me at this stage from a betting proposition. That said the favourite will be half that price or shorter if he turns up on the day so from that perspective he offers a bit of ante-post value I suppose. Race blown wide open now the fav looks unlikely to run. Probably won't bet in this race even on the day, one to watch.

Had two AP plays in the Triumph and won't be playing anything else unless something on the day looks as amazing as Tiger Roll did last year in the paddock. Peace and Co looked like something from another planet when destroying some okay horses on debut for Nicky Henderson. He pulled his rider's arms out all the way round and the jockey was still taking a pull as he cruised into the lead while everything else was under the pump. He might not have beaten too much but he made them look very moderate and this horse could be anything. I took some 8/1, you now won't find much better than 11/4. Exciting horse and I'm sold. The other one I backed ages ago, probably my first AP Cheltenham bet (hence why i forgot it probably) is Kalkir for Ricci and Mullins at 14/1, only a smidgen shorter now. These two will go off fav and second fav I think so I'm delighted with my book for this race. Also added Dicosimo to my ante-post plays, 33/1 too big, I had heard very good reports and he asserted very impressively last time and the step up in trip sure to suit. Peace and Co confirmed he was a good thing at Cheltenham. He was very keen early held up this time in a ploy to help him learn to settle. He wasn't overly impressive and needs to improve a tad but the stronger pace will suit him in March and he travelled extremely strongly. Karezak was only 3L behind and it's mad that he is 25/1 while P&C is now as short as 6/4. Kalkir was a disappointing 2nd behind stablemate Petite Parisienne last time but may surprise a few.

Ante-post bets:

Peace and Co 8/1 - Winner

Kalkir 16/1 - unplaced

Dicosimo 33/1 - unplaced

Backed a few for the Albert Bartlett. Black Hercules is the Mullins number one I think and has got a bit of my cash at 10/1 but No More Heroes is the one I am keener on. He won his maiden hurdle on reappearance without coming out of first gear but was then dumped in the deep end in a Grade 2 Novice Hurdle at Navan. He assetively beat the Mullins jolly, Shaneshill, and the way he stayed on in the closing stages really stayed with me and he looks a proper stayer in the making. The Cheltenham hill and going up in trip to 3m look to be perfect. I am on at 8/1, but couldn't put you off having a go at current best price of 6/1, worthy favourite and sure to be a lot shorter on the day. Another I somehow forgot. Only remembered as he is running today (Jan 23rd) If it turns up soft then Zeroeshadesofgrey has to be a serious player on the day, hugely progressive and you won't hear the trainer say a bad word about him. I am close to backing half the field here but heard this evening that Value At Risk is likely to be aimed at the Albert Bartlett. 14/1 won't be available if he wins tomorrow, small go each way in case he is as serious as his trainer thinks he is Didn't win but lost nothing in defeat and was out to 20/1 for a short time but now been backed in again. No More Heroes ran a below par race and can now be backed at  14/1 which is madness, going in again. I'll forgive him the run as he jumped poorly and the stamina test moving up in trip at Cheltenham will suit him better. It is a small possibility he could miss this festival but in my mind he is a likely runner. Zeroeshadesofgrey is now a non runner so scratching him. Can't not have a small each way on Out Sam too. His form is serious and I had originally punted him for the Neptune. At 20/1 he is worth an each way bet and I think there is some confidence behind him. Backed four for this race now, VAR probably being my best but only just. If I don't see a return on this race I'll close my account.

Antepost bets:

Black Hercules 10/1 - unplaced

No More Heroes 14/1 - placed

Value at Risk 14/1 - unplaced

Out Sam 20/1 - fell

The Gold Cup market has Silviniaco Conti as worthy favourite. I haven't backed him outright but couldn't put you off , 3/1 is fair. I am on a KG/GC double with him though as I mentioned on Twitter before he won so easily at Kempton. People say he doesn't like Cheltenham need to stop betting and use their brains. He has ran there three times. A staying on third behind Menorah and Cue Card in 2010, a fall when going best in the 2013 Gold Cup and a two length forth in this last year when beating the favourite and title holder Bob's Worth after they got racing way too early. He deserves to win and I hope he wins. If you are moronic enough to believe 'he doesn't like that hill' then just block me now tbh, I love opinions but stupidity does get boring after a while. Rant over and moving on - I was so happy to see Road To Riches win so well beating some proper horses in the Lexus. He really asserted well in the closing stages and has to be a serious Gold Cup contender now. I backed him on the day and also advised jumping on him at 20/1 for the festival feature before he ran. That 20/1 is gone, 8/1 now best price. Finally I must mention Holywell again as I have so many times on Twitter. Jonjo horses not been running great and neither has this lad this year. His jumping has gone to pot but if anyone is a master of getting a horse ready for one day, for one big performance, it's Jonjo. If everything falls right he can win a Gold Cup I believe. You won't see the blinkers reapplied till Gold Cup day and that day is the only day that matters. Seen so many people writing him off but no lay slips for some reason?! 14/1 he gets some of my cash each way and I hope he runs a mighty race. Think I have got a strong hand in the GC antepost market when you factor in a decent double if the favourite wins too. Have decided to back Silviniaco Conti for the Gold Cup outright as 7/2 shoule be 9/4 and I think he will be very well backed on the day. He is the one they all have to beat and looks worth a bet.

Antepost bets:

Holywell 14/1 - unplaced

Road To Riches 20/1 - placed

Silviniaco Conti 7/2 - unplaced

Without Balthazar King, Any Currency is surely going to be going off a lot shorter than 6/1 available now. Looks one of the each way bets of the meeting as he jumps so well, stays all day and loves the cross country course at Cheltenham. Only beaten a nose last year, front two well clear. Looks a cracking bet paying 4 places at 1/4 odds. The biggest danger could be Quantitative Easing and he may be worth a small ew coverbet on the day.

Any Currency 6/1 - placed

Handicap and minor race bets:

Others I will be backing wherever they run will be the grey Dawalan - tonnes of ability and some funny races he has ran this year, was hammered in the betting at last year's festival but didn't run his race, can get his revenge this time, potentially in the Coral Cup. Since won very nicely on first try at 3m which brings the Pertemps into play. I hope they bite the bullet and supplement him for a World Hurdle crack but that might be next year now. Really classy animal and I am a big fan of his, can you tell? He has a stone or two in hand, I am sure and is being plotted for a festival win in my mind. Robinsfirth is another horse of immense ability but still not exactly sure where he will go. He is a big 3m chaser in the making and anything he does this season a bonus but one to keep very much on side. (misses festival) Finally Ericht is worth a mention. Another who is very good on his day, likes to be up with the pace when seen to best, been quietly dropping in the handicap after being ridden in rear this season, one to keep an eye out for in one of the festival handicaps. Green Flag is another one to add to the list. Ran a huge eyecatcher at the Festival last year when outpaced but flew home and been campaigned this year with the festival in mind, will have a cracking chance wherever he ends up. (Grand National bound) Olofi is another horse that has been very highly tried and showed himself in very good light these past few months. He is always overpriced in the market and we will finally see just how much talent he has in one of the lesser races at the festival. (No entries) I was convinced Alaivan was a Jonjo plot horse last year and he ran a good race but not quite what I expected. He is better than his mark and could be interesting going up in trip. One to look out for in March. Edeymi recieved a questionable ride to say the least and is probably the most obvious 'plot' horse going into the festival. Indian Castle is crying out for a drop back in trip and ran a very encouraging prep run. Tap Night may not get in but if he does he is very well handicapped and will be off a very low weight. He needed a good tun last time when falling but now we just have to wait and see. 3m may have been preferable but he'll be lucky to sneak in. Dell Arca has a big one in him and he looks like a Cheltenham plot. The yard will want to win the race at it's named after the trainers father and 25/1 needs to be snapped up before it disappears. That said just seen Mckinley entered as connections want to make most of his mark rather than run in Supreme or Neptune. He's absolutely fired in here and has to have outstanding chance at 16/1, mad price.

Tracker:

Dawalan (14/1 Pertemps) - unplaced

Ericht (40/1 Byrne) - unplaced

Alaivan - NR

Edeymi (12/1 Pertemps) - unplaced

Indian Castle (25/1 Hcap Chase) - placed

Tap Night (16/1 Byrne) - unplaced

Dell Arca (25/1 Coral Cup) - fell

McKinley (16/1 Martin Pipe) - unplaced

Three other potential handicap good things could be a trio of classy horses that have to have a sound chance if connections decide to go the handicap route:

Taquin Du Seuil (goes Ryanair)

Thomas Crapper (16/1 Nov Hcap Chase) - placed

Un Ace (14/1 Byrne Plate) - unplaced

Any additional notes or updates will be added above in bold. Information and stories from various Cheltenham Festival Preview evenings will be added below.

Multiples:

Everyone will have their own ideas of a life changing bet and every year at least one or two people land a proper biggy. I've had various all over the place but my best few would probably be below. They are using current prices at time of writing.

Doubles/trebles/accumulators:

Don Cossack 4/1 - placed
Don Poli 4/1 -Winner
Sire De Grugy 4/1 - unplaced

Silviniaco Conti 7/2 - unplaced

Any Currency 6/1 - placed

EW doubles/trebles/accumulators:

Bellshill 20/1 - unplaced
Alvisio Ville 20/1 - unplaced
Value At Risk 14/1 - unplaced
Dicosimo 16/1 - unplaced

Dawalan 14/1 - unplaced

McKinley 16/1 - unplaced 

^^ went well!!

Handicap good things ew Lucky 15:

Dawalan 14/1 Pertemps - unplaced

Un Ace 14/1 Byrne Plate - unplaced

Thomas Crapper 16/1 Nov Chase - placed

Mckinley 16/1 Martin Pipe - unplaced

Preview evening quotes and gossip:

Question to Value at Risk Owner/Breeder: Should we back him? - 'Yes and for RSA next year'

'Don Cossack is now the horse we always thought he could be' - Davy Russell

Apparently Barry Geraghty has been telling everyone that Sprinter Sacre is back and will win the Champion Chase.

'If Bradstock runs Coneygree in the Gold Cup they should take his trainer's license off him, he'll win the RSA' - Davy Russell

'If Un De Sceaux gets to the start without getting worked up, your money is safe' - Davy Russell

'Douvan is a machine' - nearly everybody!!

'He's a bit special, knew going to the start the last day that something was off' - Bryan Cooper on No More Heroes

'If Vautour ran in Arkle he would be 2nd' - Katie Walsh talking about Un De Sceaux and Vautour.

Michael O'Leary (Gigginstown) apparently told Bryan Cooper that he won't leave him in the weighing room while Patrick Mullins has a nice ride in the four miler, regarding Don Poli. RSA bound.

'Don Poli as much of a certainty as Douvan' - Katie Walsh

'The faster Coneygree goes, the further Don Poli will beat him' - Katie Walsh

'5/4 Faugheen is ridiculous' - Katie Walsh

'No such thing as a good thing at Cheltenham but Don Cossack is one of the best rides I have' - Bryan Cooper

'Definite hopes of first three' - Bryan Cooper regarding Road To Riches

'Annie won't come off the bridle' - Katie Walsh

Cheers for reading, please get involved and tweet me your fancies and longshots @THTRacing.

THT