Hello and welcome to my 2016 Cheltenham Festival preview. These blogs have had good success with main highlight being last years 'festival banker' being large bets on Un De Sceaux at 6/1, 5/1 and 4/1 antepost for the Arkle, - hopefully more of the same this time around. Cheltenham needs no introduction, it's every NH racing fan's favourite four days of the year and as ever, this year's festival looks to be a proper cracker. Below you will find brief analysis of races and runners, ante post fancies, any gossip and likely race targets as well as the usual word from various preview evenings which are held in various locations across the country in the weeks leading up to that roar early Tuesday afternoon mid March. This blog will regularly be updated in the run up to Chelt so keep an eye out on Twitter @THTRacing for any added info or tips.
Supreme Novices Hurdle - Min for the Win?
Last year's winner Douvan looks like he is something very very special indeed. Willie said before the Supreme that 'this is as nice a horse as we have ever taken to Cheltenham' and he has since shown why his trainer said that of him. He is a short priced favourite for the next race on the card and you can't possibly oppose him, he looks an absolute certainty but more about that next. The reason I mention him is due to his extremely similar profile to this year's hotpot, Min. Both 2/2 over here at this stage, both won the Moscow Flyer Grade 2 Novice Hurdle very easily, both were bought from the same connections and both are sired by Walk In The Park. That said, there hasn't been the same superstar hype about him as the last two winners, Vautour and the previously mentioned Douvan. There may be a bit of vulnerability about him, he may not be a real top notcher but he may not have to be as on the face of it this year's Supreme doesn't look overly strong. Tombstone looks the right type for the race and his trainer has always liked him for the Supreme. His latest run where he loomed up looking like the winner before getting tired close home suggests dropping back 2f to the bare 2m in the Supreme will be ideal. He has some of the best form in the line up, certainly a lot stronger than the favourite who is priced on the Mullins/Ricci factor and the manner in which he has beaten relative trees. His last victory, priced at 1/7 he comfortably beat one horse who definitely won't be at Cheltenham and another that is very unlikely to be at Cheltenham, so it is hard to compare. I've always been a fan of backing form over hype and potential and at
best priced 13/8, Min makes no appeal whatsoever. Altior is a very interesting alternative. He possesses some encouraging attributes, the first of which is form at Cheltenham. His form isn't overly exciting though and has taken a few knocks but this horse certainly doesn't shy away from a battle. He is a real fighter; really tries and is unbeaten in four over hurdles. He is likely to run his heart out once more. 6/1 is probably about the fair price for him at this stage and doesn't really entice. The manner of stablemate Buveur D'Air's victories has really impressed. He beat Wait For Me as he liked (who has since followed up with two workmanlike victories) before winning again in a bit of a non event where he was 2/11 favourite.
He comes into this race as a bit of an unknown quantity and he is priced at 8/1. Two nice darts for the Henderson team though this will be a big step up for Altior and a huge step up for Buveur D'Air. Bleu Et Rouge is also worth mentioning, after all he downed Tombstone over 2m2f in the Grade 1 Deloitte and that victory
seemed to come at no surprise to connections. He really battled on well when asked by Geraghty but could he be more of a Neptune type? He is a best priced 16/1 for both races at this stage but if he turns up here he would be a talented second string for Mr Mullins. JP already has the favourite for the Neptune and on that argument maybe you would suggest he is more likely to line up here in which case he represents decent each way value. My final mention goes to Moonracer. He ran out an ultimately impressive (blew the start and made up a lot of ground) winner of the bumper here 12 months ago but his season has had a few niggles and he won't have time to have a prep run, so is being aimed to make a reappearance in the Supreme itself. On the face of it this looks a huge ask but his bumper form has worked out well and he has always been held in the highest regard by connections. He's 25/1 at this stage which is probably about right, but if he's still that price on the day with likely four/five place offers flying around he may tempt some into having a little tickle each way. That said he is a 7yo now (only two 7yos won in past 40 years) and may end up wanting a bit further and have connections possibly got half an eye on Aintree too? Too many doubts to warrant backing him at this stage but I am excited to see him reappear. At this stage,
Tombstone is my selection. This is a race to look for some each way value against Min who takes up so much of the book. Tombstone is well regarded, looks the right type, has some very soild form, is definitely going for this race and will be shorter on the day. At a best priced 16/1 with Ladbrokes, he is my sole selection and rates a decent each way proposition in the opener.
Tombstone 16/1 each way (Ladbrokes) 4th
Arkle - Ar you Mad to take on Douvan?
Like the Supreme, the Arkle market revolves around one horse. Unlike the horse at the head of the Supreme market however, Douvan has already proved himself on the big stage. Three of the last four winners of this race have been odds on favourites and it looks extremely likely that at 14.10 on the Tuesday afternoon will see that record improve to four of the last five. As mentioned above, Willie was extremely complimentary about him before he won the Supreme and he has been faultless so far over fences. He hasn't beaten any superstars, but he's beaten everything that other connections were good enough to compete against him, and beaten them merclilessly. The Arkle will be his biggest test to date but this horse looks like
he will be extremely hard to beat. Unlike in the Supreme, I don't think there is any point backing something each way against him in the standard books. The w/o Douvan market is of more interest however. L'Ami Serge will line up here instead of the JLT despite running over 2m3f on heavy last time out. (and he wasn't stopping at the end either) He slammed Doctor Harper at Plumpton the time before and that horse has since won again and had been heavily backed for the Centenary Novice Chase before the handicapper gave him a mark of 141 (race is 0-140) L'Ami Serge's Wetherby
performance was faultless and a nice prep run for this. He ran a cracker in the Supreme last year, just getting going too late after being badly hampered twice on the way round and though this will be a big step up from his two sets of competition this season, he is a classy horse and for Nicky Henderson has only tasted defeat on that one occasion. It is still hard to say quite how good he is but at 5/2 in the w/o Douvan market he doesn't represent enough value for me. Vaniteux and Ar Mad faced eachother at Kempton two days after Christmas having a right set two up the straight. Vaniteux came to win the race but the tough and loveable Ar Mad didn't know when he was beaten and re-rallied to get back up close home, a real gritty and hardy performance that won the horse many fans, including me. That form has since been boosted when Vaniteux got back to winning ways last time out at Doncaster beating a small but very decent field, including confirming the form with Arzal and Fox Norton who likely skips the festival for Aintree. Ar Mad has improved over 30lbs this year and has been transformed for the removal of the hood and the revert to front running. Whether he will get an easy lead and whether he is as effective going left handed are questions hanging over him but
at 7/1 he represents a very good bet in the without Douvan markets each way. He may have more improvement to come and connections are looking to having a prep race round Plumpton in the next week or two. I think the market has this race about right and these four look a class apart from the rest of the field. I think this race might really cut up, nothing stands out at all at bigger prices. Ar Mad in the w/o Douvan market will see some each way profit at the very least but I, like many, expect Douvan to win and win well.
EDIT << Ar Mad has since been ruled out of the race with a leg injury so the race may as well be awarded to Douvan now. Big shame for the Moore's and my antepost book! Always one or to casualties when you back horses a month or two in advance but that's the compensation for the much bigger prices you can find. >>
Festival Handicap Chase - The Master Plan all along?
The most competitive race on day one is the Festival Handicap Chase. Last year's winner was The Druids Nephew and his stablemate looks a good place to start this year. The Young Master has been aimed at this race all season (like most who will line up) and has a
profile very similar to that of last years winner. Both ran in the Hennessy (if you can call TYM's effort a run) and both had their prep in the Cleeve, both incidentally beaten just over 40 lengths. A prep over hurdles suggests the trainer is happy with the mark going into this race and wants to protect it rather than running over fences again. Furthermore, The Druids Nephew won this last year off 146, and with Sam Waley Cohen's claim taken into account The Young Master will effectively be off the same mark. That last sentence however highlights the one downside to backing him, the jockey - who is now contracted to ride with Daddy having bought half a share. The WC's get involved with horses they see as Grand National types and this horse certianly looks like he'll be lining up in the coming seasons though not this time around. I won't go into much detail about many other runners as
20/1 for The Young Master is my each way fancy. On this season's performances, you'd think twice but with a profile so similar to last year's winner, he rates a very solid each way chance with course form and thorough staying ability in the armoury. Others to mention include the very disappointing Minella Rocco for the ever-shrewd Jonjo O'Neill who knows how to win this race (3 of last 7 renewals) - If they can get him right (genuinely or by 'chance') on the day then 143 may underestimate him despite his wayward jumping. However this race isn't necessarily the target, he has various entries and would be the least exposed and only the third 6yo to ever win this race if he were to be successful. If he lines up on the day and is still around 20/1 you may think about chancing a couple each way. Kings Palace is also worthy of a mention. I never saw the hype around this horse but his trainer has always admired him and he is
coming in very much under the radar unlike last year where people were all over him in the RSA. He too is entered in a few races and ran a quiet race in the Paddy Power but he has good form at Cheltenham and has slipped to a mark of 152 which in a competitive handicap like this would be a big ask as he'd carry almost top weight but we'll have to wait and see where he ends up. Minella Foru is the current 14/1 favourite, raised 12lbs to 146 for his win in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown, he can probably still do some damage off that mark and is an interesting runner despite only being a 6yo himself. McManus entrants in this race are often worth a second look and no reason why this lad wont run well if he turns up on the day too, but my preference is for the Neil Mulholland raider.
EDIT << With this race the confirmed target for Holywell, he has to be backed at 14/1 for this. With a nice racing weight of 11st 2lbs and course form of 114 including wins in the 2013 Pertemps, this race 2014 and a superb forth in last year's Gold Cup he looks a real standout bet in this race and I can't possibly imagine he'll be a double figure price on the day. I probably fancy him more than my original selection in all honesty. >>
The Young Master 20/1 each way (Paddy Power)
3rd
Holywell 14/1 each way (Ladbrokes, Hills, Boyles)
2nd
Champion Hurdle - Old boy New One to roll back the years?
Faugheen needs little introduction. He's clearly a monster and would be a faultless 13/13 had he not been chinned by his stablemate Nichols Canyon when barely half fit on reappearance. He's since put things right with ruthless displays in the Christmas and Irish Champion Hurdles. In short, he'll win this race, and his price (as short as 1/4 in places) says that it's very likely too. The question is, is there any point backing something each way against him? Arctic Fire was last year's runner up and will likely run well again but he's had a funny old season and is yet to win a two mile graded race over hurdles in seven attempts. At 8/1 for the win and 2/1 in the w/o Faugheen markets I'll look elsewhere. Nichols Canyon is in his own right a very good horse, and forms the third leg of Mullins grip at the head of the Champion Hurdle market. He's in at 12/1 which just isn't enticing enough despite his record of never being out of the first three over hurdles. (when completing) Nevertheless, likely to go well. The one that did half interest me was The New One at what a couple of seasons ago would have looked a ridiculous 25/1. I certainly wouldn't have (the admittedly unexposed) Identity Thief at 14/1 with this lad sitting pretty at 25's. Yes he isn't getting any younger and yes he hangs a bit and yes he sometimes jumps right handed but
he is a top class horse. His impressive record of 16 wins from 23 career starts is there for all to see and the furthest he has ever been beaten was 9 lengths. I'm not going to sit here and say he will beat Faugheen because Faugheen is a better horse than him but I do think 25/1 is a bit of an insult for a horse that has won five times at the course and who has finished a very unlucky third and a close up fifth in two stronger renewals of this race. He makes some appeal in the w/o Faugheen market at 8/1 each way as he'll only have to finish in the top four to steal a little bit of profit from this race. Even if Mullins completes an historic follow up 1-2-3 I think this lad looks likeliest to be forth. Admittedly this isn't an ideal long term betting strategy, but all I am saying is that if you really feel the need to have a small half point bet for a bit of fun then The New One in the w/o Faugheen market could be for you. My Tent Or Yours is certainly worthy of a mention. He's the forgotten horse and people forget he was only beaten a neck by Jezki in this race two seasons back. If they manage to sneak a last minute prep run into him to get a bit of freshness out of him he could well go off shorter than 25/1 on offer and there seems to be a little bit of quiet money around for him on the exchange. Overall, I'm not backing anything just yet and to be honest I likely won't, I just hope they run their races and come home safe, unlike poor Our Conor who's horror fall two years back still eats away in the memory.
EDIT << With Faugheen ruled out through injury the market has been totally reshaped. The New One is now 10/1 and he still stands out a bit as a decent each way bet. Annie Power could be supplemented for this but I think quotes of 7/4 are a bit tight. This will be her toughest test to date and she will become only the third mare to ever win this race if successful. I think I'm still unlikely to back anything in this race, but if any it will be TNO for a couple of quid each way.>>
No Selection
Mares Hurdle - Third time lucky for Annie?
The market for this one on the face of it is still sorting itself out. You have Annie Power at odds on across the board and a standout 8/11 and she'll be bidding to make it third time lucky at the festival after losing out to More Of That in the World Hurdle 2014 before her devastating fall at the last with the race at her mercy in this event last year. She's the best NH mare in training, no doubt and the lack of prep run is not off putting looking at the way she tanked clear of them last year on her first run for ten months, before meeting her fate in front of the stands. You find yourself saying it a lot for these Mullins favourites, but she will be hard to beat on the day. Vroum Vroum Mag is priced between 9/4 and 8/1 but she looks likelier to head for the Ryanair so we'll ignore her for now. She does play a nice role in ensuring some bigger prices elsewhere though, for the time being at least. Glens Melody, last year's lucky winner doesn't line up which brings me on nicely to my very boring and predictable play in this race, though only a small one. Polly Peachum is still relatively lightly raced for her age but she's tough, she likes Cheltenham and
she is sure to run her race again. She got nailed on the line in this race last year after looking the winner after the last and her reappearance defeat over the wrong trip can be overlooked. She returned to winning ways last time and will go there on the day with a solid chance of bringing home a good chunk of the prize money. Bitofapuzzle could have another crack at this race but ran a poor race last time and was reported to have a breathing problem. Whether that can be properly sorted in time, I have my doubts. All things considered, 16/1 is probably no more than fair. The Govaness is a huge price on the exchange so is presumably skipping the festival and Petite Parisienne may be a few points shorter if she wins at the weekend but is unlikely to be good enough to land a blow on the day. Overall, I think and hope that Annie Power will finally have the day she deserves with last year's runner up repeating the feat back in second.
EDIT << VVM is now the hot favourite and Annie could be off elsewhere so the market for my selection has now disappeared and can't be backed so I have decided to remove it from this blog. >>
No Selection
National Hunt Steeplechase - Southfield to outstay them?
You are a braver man than I if you are backing Black Hercules at 4/1 and less at this stage of proceedings for the 'four miler.' He was beaten out of sight in the Albert Bartlett here last year when favourite and his recent form is fair but no more than that. With most of his form on heavy ground and doubts about the new trip, he really makes no appeal at a price you wouldn't back each way. Patrick Mullins is also very likely to be on top, and he is responsible for the
worst ride in Cheltenham Festival history aboard the ill-fated Suntiep two seasons back. Okay that's probably a bit harsh but crikey it was bad. BH has a run this weekend pencilled in and a bold show could see that price contract even further, even more reason to look elsewhere. Races like this are totally wide open at this stage with many entrants having other races they could easily go for instead across the four days. One who looks more than likely to line up is the handsome white-faced Southfield Royale. He's really thrived for the step up to staying trips over fences and the signs are that he'll be heading here instead of the RSA. While like many, he has to prove himself over an extreme trip such as this, he looks every inch a thorough stayer judged by his ruthless display at Doncaster and his one-paced but keeping on second in the Grade One Feltham last time out. The form has been let down a little since but the extreme test of stamina and going left handed on a testing track like Cheltenham
look as if they will suit this lad really well. 11/1 is not to be sniffed at as he may just have that touch of class that some of his likely competition may not possess. Feltham opponent Native River (14/1 for this) shaped in behind as though a test like this would really suit him and further confirmed that impression last time out at Wetherby. With this race being the obvious target, I can see why he would make some appeal at this stage for the Tizzard's who arguably have the best Festival team they have ever gone to war with. However, with the market still assembling and the final field looking hard to pin down, the young and progressive stayer Southfield Royale is the one I'll chance at the price despite the winner of this race usually being a year or two older.
Southfield Royale 11/1 each way (Bet365)
4th
Centenary Novice Chase
Killer Crow has been subject of many a postive report and Bouvreuil has supposedly had this race mapped out for him all season and these two are probably of most interest. However there is nothing that really stands out enough for me to warrant shifting some of my hard earned.
No Selection
Neptune Novices Hurdle - Is Yan worth the banker label?
My first instinct when watching Yanworth laugh at unbeaten Shantou Village on the bridle at Trials Day was 'Neptune winner.' Everything since this moment has reinforced this thought in my head. His form has been franked left right and centre and from 7/2 immediately after his romp on Trials Day he is now a best priced 5/4 for this race and you know what?
That's a very fair price. He handles any ground, has won at the track and has barely come off the bridle to beat anything this season, he looks a serious weapon for the relentless Alan King yard who are having a fine season. In short,
I think this is banker material for the week. I'm not the type of punter to steam into a shortie but I think this lad represents the best value of all the shorties over the four days. Whilst unbeaten, Yorkhill hasn't looked as visually impressive and his form isn't quite the level of Yanworth's and to be honest little else appeals against him so he can't be taken on. Yanworth will feature in the multiples section below and I'm putting him up as my Fez banker.
Yanworth 5/4 (Various) - Festival Banker
2nd
RSA Chase - Heroes a cut above his rivals?
At the start of the season I predicted that this race would be one of the best of the festival. With staying noce chasing prospects such as Un Temps Pour Tout, Value At Risk, Aux Ptits Soins, Minella Rocco, Robinsfirth, More Of That and No More Heroes, I thought we could be in for a mouthwatering contest come March. However a few have disappointed or suffered setbacks and ultimately the 2016 running looks to be quite an average renewal. However, a couple of those mentioned look like lining up thankfully. No More Heroes is the obvious starting point here. He went close to winning the Albert Bartlett last year but chasing was always going to be his game. He has looked faultless in his three starts over fences this season, winning Grade 1's the last twice. He
may well end up being a Gold Cup horse in the next few seasons and seems well fancied for this year's RSA. The form of his last two wins is very good and he has been described as 'a cut above' the grade by far wiser men than I, which on the face of it looks a very fair thing to say. At 3/1, he makes plenty of appeal. More Of That looked to have the world at his feet when beating Annie Power here two years ago (breaking my heart in the process) but was hammered on reappearance at Newbury. He was swiftly sent chasing where he has begun to make amends, winning two from two, latterly in a three runner contest as the 1/3f. This form amounts to little compared to the favourite but this horse still has big potential and can only beat what dares to line up against him. All in all he is no more than a fair price in at 9/2 second fav but he is entered up on Saturday and what he does there is likely to effect the RSA market. Moving on and Blaklion certainly has the heart of his animal namesake. A real little fighter, he just keeps improving and keeps surprising people. His win in the Towton took his form to a new level and he appears to get on especially well with the very capable Ryan Hatch. However, he will need to improve again and his run in the Albert Bartlett last season is a little offputting, though he does have course form and is open to more improvement. Seeyouatmidnight will bid to give trainer Sandy Thomson a day to remember if he can pull it off. Beaten 12L in last year's World Hurdle, he has won really nicely on his last two starts over the bigger obstacles, including at Cheltenham when defeating a decent field including the aforementioned Blaklion. A real mud-lover, there are certianly no doubts about his stamina and he will be galloping all the way to the line. Groud without the word 'soft' in the going description would be a concern but he is well worth his place in this field and will make a bold bid to burn them all off from the front. He's lightly raced for an 8yo having just had the nine starts and you would be hopeful he may have a lot more to offer over fences. I wish Sandy and the apple of her eye the very best of luck. The final mention must go to Pont Alexandre. He's a gorgeous but funny old horse. With only six runs under his belt he is arguably open to most improvement of any and is an intriguing runner, especially at a current standout 33/1 on offer with Paddy. He had every chance last time out when making a bad mistake at the last behind Outlander (who is now toward the head of the JLT market) but was also beaten by Monksland who was hammered by No More Heroes the last time they met, showing that this lad needs to up his game. Pont's form is matched closely with Roi De Francs and there has been a bit of money around for that one but it's hard to say who looks the Mullins number one at this stage. With all of that said, I do hate being a favourite backer but simply put; No More Heroes has the best form, has shown he handles the track and looks an exciting staying chaser for the season's to come. I agree he looks a cut above his rivals at the time of writing and
it's a confident bet at 3/1 unless More Of That comes out and does something spectacular at the weekend. If he doesn't, that 3/1 may not be around much longer for this lad. Gigginstown to follow up in the race they won last year with loveable rogue Don Poli for me.
No More Heroes 3/1 (Betfair SB)
4th
Coral Cup
No Selection
Champion Chase - Stage is set for Un De Sceaux to claim throne
I can already tell you the best bet for this race and that is to place lay Dodging Bullets. Now on to the contenders for the win. My admiration is no secret for the classy teraway front-runner Un De Sceaux. He is one of my favourite horses in training and has never been beaten by anything in training except the odd fence. (He even took a fall, got back up and charged past his rivals up the home straight to win riderless last time!) Despite this fact, people are still out to get him. They still say his form isn't that strong, still say he wouldn't beat a 'fully fit' Sprinter Sacre, still say he can't jump and everything else in between. His last run was arguably his best form to date, cruising clear of former Champion Chaser Sire De Grugy and the very promising but unfortunately injured Traffic Fluide. He won the Arkle last season and ever since has been a short price for this race and rightly so. 5/6 is meaty enough for me to put in a multiple or two. I backed him last year antepost at 6/1, 5/1 and 4/1for Arkle Glory - he was my 'festival banker.' At a shorter price this time around, he may be many people's idea of their 2016 banker but this time for the QMCC. It's unlikely Sire De Grugy can win another Champion Chase, but my personal highlight of the season so far was when he 'came back' in the Tingle Creek. With mixed messages coming from the Moore camp before the race, many thought it might have been game over for Sire but he came out and battled on with the heart of a lion to fend off the attentions of likely reopposer Special Tiara. At 8/1 in the w/o Un De Sceaux market he makes some appeal each way. That said I think I would rather back UDS at 5/6 for the win than play around in this market. The once invincible Sprinter Sacre continued his long ascent back towards reclaiming his throne in the 2m chasing division last time when showing he can really scrap and battle when he needs to. Rarely coming off the bridle in the glory days, the way he found for pressure last time out was something a lot of us had never really seen. If some have the luster has indeed disappeared forever, then at least we know
he has a heart as well as an abundance of class. He's in at 5/1, the biggest price he has ever been over fences and in that respect he's a big price. I hope he runs a great race, he is worthy second favourite. Despite his stop-start chasing career and wayward jumping, Josses Hill has always been held in very high regard by his trainer. You get the impression he has a huge run in him somewhere and his standout performance was his fantastic 2nd in the Supreme behind Vautour in 2014. He didn't run badly at all in the Arkle last season, only beaten 8 lengths and one of these days it will all come together for him in a big race. He's out again tomorrow over the longer distance of 2m4f but his best form has been at the bare 2m and I would think it likely that this race is the preference over the Ryanair. With a smidge of 40/1 available, I can see the logic in a small each way punt or a play in the w/o UDS market as he is likely to shorten tomorrow if he is victorious.
EDIT - <<After his nice win at Kempton, the Ryanair has been nominated as the likely race for him at the Festival.>> That said, to summarise, I won't be backing anything in this race against Un De Sceaux and 5/6 is a fair price. I wonder if he wins this race impressively, finally people will see him for what he really is: a champion. Probably not...
No Selection
Cross Country Chase
No Selection
Fred Winter - Fred glory for Frod?
Usually not a race I would get involved with until the day but I have had a few each way on Frodon for Paul Nicholls at this stage. This horse ran a cracker on British debut off 137 taking on some talented older horses finishing third at Cheltenham at the end of January. He travelled really well throughout and was looming large until he blew up a bit inside the last furlong or two. It was a big eye catcher of a run and with improvement very likely and the handicapper only nudging him up 1lb for that run, you would be hopeful of a bold show in this race against his age group, despite the fact he will be carrying a biggish weight with that mark. Nicholls has done very well with his entrants in this race in recent years;
1st and 2nd 2015, 2nd and 4th 2014 and 2nd and 3rd 2013. With Tommy Silver a likely runner for the yard also, he has a good chance of keeping up his good record, but my preference for this lad at this stage.
EDIT << Frodon has since won and will likely now be Triumph bound. However he showed he was well handicapped so Nicholls must have something seriously well handicapped for this year. I'll be backing whatever he runs now on the day each way and Diego Du Charmil seems to be the horse with a bit of confidence behind him. I've scrapped the multiple slip that was below and put it up without Frodon selected meaning it is now an each way trixie as well as the singles. EDIT(2) << Added the Nicholls runner Diego Du Charmil as mentioned above. >>
Diego Du Charmil 7/1 each way (Various)
WINNER
Champion Bumper
Ballyandy's form is solid and not a lot of the field really stand out against. There hasn't been a great deal of hype about any of these and the NTD inmate is sure to run well. Ricci said his Turcagua was a good each way bet for this at a recent Cheltenham Preview night but it's not a race I bet in.
No Selection
JLT Novices Chase - Musketeers the play on day three opener
After writing a detailed review on this race which took a good chunk of my Sunday evening I somehow managed to delete the whole thing but these things happen so we go again! The market for this race was shaken up and reshaped when the news broke that antepost favourite Killultagh Vic was injured, promoting Bristol De Mai to favouritsm and he remains your 7/2 market leader. The grey has won his last three over fences this season, his latest run his best yet when winning a (weak) Grade 1. Despite recent form, people still haven't really warmed to the horse, myself included. I think it's because he gives the impression that he has a high cruising speed but lacks that extra gear and possibly would find little and come out worse if he really had to battle in a finish. He's dominated small fields so far and this will be a different test to try and make all. Furthermore the JLT will be his seventh run of the season and that may just tell in the closing stages up that hill where he won't be as fresh as some of his rivals. At 7/2 he is worth taking on with something each way in a race like this. Garde La Victoire looks destined to run here instead of the Arkle which seemed the plan at the start of the season and it's probably a wise move to switch. (Douvan!!) He has already beaten the favourite for this race twice when they have met before and there is a lot of blue on oddschecker for the Hobbs inmate who has won on his last three visits to Cheltenham. He's unbeaten over fences and looks to have more improvement to come. He should stay the trip no bother (won at 20f here over hurdles) and makes some appeal to the each way players. However, his novice races have lacked depth and the form of his beating of Fox Norton and Calipto in November has been let down a bit since. All in all, 12/1 is probably no more than fair and while it is very possible he can run into a place, there are stronger alternatives. Shaneshill may be one of them. I am convinced there is
something lurking in this race at a mad price and this horse may just be the smoking gun. Despite his disappointing run last time out, he was only beaten a length in the Champion Bumper 2014 and ran a cracker last year to only be beaten four lengths by the unstoppable Douvan in the Supreme. That kind of form should have him near favourite in a relatively weak JLT and I think the market may have overreacted to his run last time out. While it was offputting, there were possible excuses and he shaped as though he is ready for this step up to 2m4f. 10/1 is an appealing price if they get him there on the day at a course he clearly relishes. I do think he has a good chance and I totally understand the logic behind backing him. Outlander is the other potential Mullins raider and he has sound claims if lining up. While workmanlike, he finds admirably for pressure and seems to have always been a bit underrated by most. He's 3/3 over fences, including his ultimately decisive win in the Grade 1 Flogas last time at Leopardstown, beating Monksland, Pont Alexandre and Zabana. That's pretty good form in this context and he will stay the trip really well. Fences may be the making of him and he has clearly improved for the switch to the larger obstacles. He is another that is hard to rule out in a competitive though probably below average JLT. Despite this, 6/1 doesn't scream out to me at this stage as being wildly overpriced so he won't be taking my cash. One that I have had a very small each way dabble on is the joint top rated Three Musketeers. He came on for his reappearance run/chase debut when winning the Grade 2 Berkshire Novices Chase at Newbury before running a stinker last time in the Dipper NC. That run looked too bad to be true and his trainer was quick to draw a line through that run and said one or two things had come to light and the heavy ground was another possible factor too. He travelled into the race nicely from the rear but found absolutely nil and was beaten long before his bad blunder at the last. He was the favourite for that race and had looked a high class prospect over fences before that. He is the least exposed runner in the field with only six starts under his belt and at 20/1 is worth a small each way interest as it is very likely we are yet to see the best of him. The Flemensfirth gelding looks the one runner open to most improvement and his trainer seems to hold him in very high regard. Already rated 155 after just three runs over fences, he will stay the trip really well and this race should be a perfect test for him. Just a smallish bet but a worthy one in the JLT for me.
Three Musketeers 20/1 each way (Various)
4th
Pertemps - Missed the best Approach in the Pertemps?
Cup Final landed a gamble on return from 14 months away from the track last time out at Mussleburgh. He realistically needed to win the race to get into this and considering his time away from the track, he did it nice enough. I do think the horse to take away from the race was his stablemate and last year's winner Call The Cops who was clearly just having a little day out before a potential tilt at the double, last completed by David Pipe's Buena Vista in 2010 and 2011. He'll carry a big weight but is still improving and could be up to the task. I'm looking forward to seeing him over a fence next season anyway. Unowhatimeanharry has really improved for the switch to the Harry Fry yard this season. His last run made it 4/4 for the trainer and also ensured a place in the line up for this. He's been backed and if continuing his upward curve, looks to have every chance of running a big race. Missed Approach is a very intriguing runner. His only defeat in four career starts came at the hands of my JLT pick on his final start in 2014. His reappearance run was very impressive when bolting up from a few decent horses who have advertised the form since. That run put him up to 140 which will mean a nice weight in this and probably means this horse is still well handicapped as he is still so unexposed. At 12/1 he makes some appeal and has been subject to very positive reports from his ever complimentary trainer. With better Spring ground likely to aid his cause he looks likely to go well. At this early stage he is probably the one to have a small tickle on though this is a race to come back to once the weights are out and the line up finalised as this race is no stranger to throwing up winners at huge prices.
Missed Approach 12/1 each way (Various)
Unplaced
Ryanair Chase
No Selection
World Hurdle - Stage set for Thistlecrack to confirm his dominance in staying hurdle division
Four of the current top seven in the betting look very unlikely to line up here; Annie Power, Aux Ptits Soins, Vroum Vroum Mag and Nichols Canyon. I'm not a fan of piling into short priced favourites and have never played the game like that, but the favourite Thistlecrack is one of the strongest market leaders of the week in my opinion. If in the hands of more fashionable connections, namely Mr Mullins/Ricci this horse would be more of a similar price to Douvan (4/9) and that price wouldn't be unwarranted. He has
developed into the leading light of the staying hurdle division this season and dismissed theories about not liking the track with a bloodless display in the Cleeve last time out, coming away from a decent field on the bridle. He really does look a cut above his main rivals and at 11/10 is still decent value against a field that lacks real depth. He's beaten a lot of these already, namely last year's winner, Cole Harden. The apple of trainer Warren Greatrex's eye, the Westerner gelding has clearly been brought along with this race in mind all season, embarking on a very light campaign to date. He ran a very decent race behind Thistlecrack on reappearance in the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury before being outpaced in the Relkeel on New Years Day on ground that wouldn't have suited. With this horse being fresher than most and the return to 3m to suit, you will likely get a good run for your money if 8/1 tempts you to back him each way. Alpha Des Obeaux for me looks too short. While fairly impressive last time, ikt was only the second win of his career and he was earlier well beaten by progressive and exciting Prince Of Scars (20/1 for this race) Whilst rarely far away (six 2nds from nine starts) he is likely to find Thistlecrack far too hot to handle and despite his best form coming over this trip, he is opposable and doesn't offer much value in my mind. As I've just mentioned, Prince Of Scars on the face of it is a huge price in comparison though a word of warning, he was a NR the other day, and is quite a big price on the exchanges so not quite sure what's going on with him at the moment, one to keep an eye on in the coming weeks. Saphir Du Rheu went off favourite in this last year and ran a very good race to be second. He was sent chasing but that was quickly abandoned after the Hennessy despite two easy wins in novice company at odds on before that. He returned to hurdles last time out when disappointing to be a well beaten 5th in the Long Walk. He's been kept under lock and key since and Nicholls hasn't had a great year but a case can be made for this C/D winner. If you took away the favourite, this race is no stronger than last year's renewal and 16/1 is probably a few points too big. I can see some appeal in backing this horse each way, especially with
recent reports of a wind op coming to light. The way to play it though is by taking some 10/1 in the without Thistlecrack market that Paddy Power are offering - that's a big price and one I can't resist throwing a couple at each way. A final mention and one I've also had a small tickle on is last year's Albert Bartlett winner Martello Tower. He ran a quiet but decent enough race in the Christmas Hurdle and the Galmoy, beaten around 10 lengths in both but showed enough to convince that he can be an each way contender here; a race he is very likely to have been primed for. We know he likes the track and he comes here after a very conservative campaign. His career record of
1411112133 (when completed) shows his consistency and at a generous 33/1 offered by Bet365, he is worthy of a small interest bet though the softer the ground the better for him. Just to be clear, despite these two little plays, I am of the belief that
Thistlecrack will win the World Hurdle and is included in the multiples section below.
Saphir Du Rheu 10/1 each way w/o Thistlecrack (Paddy Power)
Unplaced
Martello Tower 33/1 each way (Bet365)
Unplaced
Byrne Plate - Course lover John well handicapped to strike
A minefield with 'plotjobs' galore up and down the card. One such type would be John's Spirit. A standing dish around this course, he's been running solid but quiet races all year in big handicaps, dropping a very handy 12lbs in the process bringing him into this race off a mark of 145 which is a very appealing mark. His last win here was off 147 and his staying on all too late forth in this race in 2014 was off 148. Both these efforts suggest he is going to be very dangerous off 145 and the better ground will only aid his cause (heavy last twice) Hard to be confident in a race like this as you need a lot of luck but he is my
handicap each way NAP of the festival at a very meaty 20/1. Worth a decent go at each way. David Pipe's runners are always worth a second look as he's won this race three times in the last six years and Monetaire looks the yard's best hope this time around. He was sent off favourite and ran a cracker for 2nd in this last year off 138 and after two quietish runs this season has slipped back down to the same mark. He can make his presence felt and the yard record in this race means he is worth backing each way too at this stage at the same price as John's Spirit. I can easily see these two going off sub 10/1 jt favs on the day and they are the two standouts at this stage. Darna, last year's winner, will race off 4lbs higher if lining up but has only been seen the once when pulling up in the Paddy Power. He's 25/1 but no idea of his well being or their plans with him and the only back to back winner in the race's history (65 years) was The Tsarevich for Nicky Henderson in 1986.
EDIT << Monetaire goes elsewhere which is very frustrating as thought he had a cracking chance here. Maybe this means David Pipe has something even better handicapped, keep an eye out on the day - a race he does well in.
Johns Spirit 20/1 each way (Various)
PU
Kim Muir - Doctor Harper for Pipe/Johnson Family double?
The one that interests me here is Doctor Harper lining up off 141 for last year's winning yard and in the same colours. While having a different profile to last year's victor (younger and progressive/older and well handicapped) he
looks the standout bet at this stage. A Grade 3 winner over hurdles, he has made a bright start to his chasing career. His first run was a hopeless task against L'Ami Serge before he ran well behind Garde La Victoire over what is sure to turn out to be an inadequate 2m and on ground that wouldn't have been ideal for him. He slaughtered two fairly decent novices last time out and looks to be on a nice mark stepping up in trip for this. While the new trip obviously poses a bit of a question mark, his career best run was over three miles and he gives the impression that he has been campaigned over the inadequate bare minimum to preserve his mark for a tilt at a race like this.
Doctor Harper 12/1 each way (Various)
UR
Mares Novices Hurdle
No Selection
Triumph Hurdle
Zubayr is obviously of interest and there was a bit of buzz about him before his impressive debut. He's worthy favourite and should give Nick Schofield a great spin round. However I've been very reliably told from a few people that Who Dares Wins is extremely well fancied in the Alan King yard. Can forgive last run, better ground and faster pace will suit him and at 14/1 there is still a good bit of juice in the price.
Who Dares Wins 14/1 each way (Paddy/Hills)
County Hurdle - Unexposed Wait For Me well in off 139
Wait For Me looks a standout bet to me in this race off 139. He's still unexposed with only the five career runs to his name with his only defeats coming at the hands of Supreme hopeful Buveur D'Air at Newbury and Moonracer/Modus in last years champion bumper. Though unimpressive in his last couple of starts, he still won in workmanlike fashion despite some erratic jumping and him still showing signs of immaturity. With more improvement to come for his good yard, he is the one to side with at a generous 16/1 with this race confirmed as the target.
EDIT << I'm also going to put up Montbazon at 25/1. His form at Cheltenham reads 343 including a 2L 4th in the 2012 Supreme and a 1L 3rd in the 2014 running of this race. Eyecatcher when very fresh back from absence last time in the same race used as a prep for this last year and with that run under his belt and a further 2lbs ease in the weights he rates a cracking each way bet off 138 at the price. >>
Wait For Me 16/1 each way (Various)
Montbazon 25/1 each way (Various)
Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle - Shantou to end Hill's unbeaten record
In my mind there has been two clear standout contenders for this race from the New Year onwards. Despite many people's 'shrewd sources' and 'definitely goes Neptune' nonsense, both Barters Hill and Shantou Village have always looked far likelier to line up in this race rather than the 2m5f contest. (Both can be backed at 20/1 for the Neptune if you have scrambled egg for brains) Ben Pauling's stable star just about held on to his unbeaten record when gamely holding off the charge of 18lbs inferior rated Ballydine last time out. He is still described as a big baby, races a bit lazily, often just about doing enough and obviously has a character to him. He is sure to continue to improve and he just keeps on winning so he is hard to knock. However, that last run may have just shown a bit of vulnerability to something top class. He has faced some decent horses but none as good as Shantou Village. The 6yo bay gelding was devastating upped in class at Cheltenham in November when scooting clear of a small but select field, including Champers On Ice who has advertised the form really well since. Shantou Village beat him again last time on Trials day when he looked a bit outpaced before coming home well to finish clear of the rest in second behind the seemingly tip-top Yanworth who has beaten everything he has faced on the bridle over hurdles. This performance suggested the step up in trip to the AB was imminent for the Mulholland novice and the market for this race agreed, squeezing him into 6/1 from 12/1 in the week or two after that run. Yanworth form is being franked everywhere you look and overall Shantou Village has better form than Barters Hill, who has never been raced at Cheltenham. It is understandable that connections of Shantou are keen to avoid Yanworth despite more solid underfoot conditions at the Festival promising to suit. With only four runs under his belt, better ground and the stiffer stamina test to suit, I really do feel this lad is a cracking bet at 6/1 vs the 5/2 fav who still must prove himself against the best novice hurdlers and who doesn't have the benefit of previous course form to his name. I already had him backed minutes after his run in late November (12/1) which I was really taken with and his run last time was further evidence to me that this trip will see him in an even better light. I think this formline is really strong and despite seemingly being held by Shantou, Champers On Ice is far too big at 33/1. He is understandably sure to be backed by the each way thieves and may even be worth a little saver. He could well take Barters Hill on for the lead which should ensure a nice end to end gallop which looks like it should suit my fancy. Despite him now being half the price I've already got him backed at, SV still rates a very good bet, I think he will go off close to favouritsm on the day, I really do. EDIT << With his jumping to come under too much pressure in the Supreme (according to Mullins) and JP McManus having Yanworth in the Neptune, Bleu Et Rouge could well end up in this race along with a few other stablemates. His Deloitte win is very solid form and he wasn't stopping at the end. He is massively unexposed and with the step up in trip potentially bringing about further improvement, I really think 25/1 is far too big for this lad and he is worth a little coverbet against my main bet in the race. >>
Shantou Village 6/1 (Various)
Bleu Et Rouge 25/1 (Betfred)
Cheltenham Gold Cup - Poli to come out on top in Gold Cup cracker
This year's Gold Cup would have been one of the best renewals in living memory if last year's winner Coneygree hadn't been ruled out with injury. Nevertheless, it still looks pretty damn good. The top five in the market are all pretty much the same price, it is totally wide open on the face of it.
The contenders:
Don Cossack - he was the highest rated chaser in training until Cue Card won the King George where this lad would have gone very close if he hadn't come down at the penultimate, though luck never been great around Cheltenham. Strong stayer and likely to run very well if staying on his feet. 9/2.
Vautour - Would have won the King George if the race was a yard shorter and Ruby said he would have done things differently if he could ride the race again. People confused 'didn't stay' with 'outstayed.' There will be stronger stayers in this field, but he probably has the most natural ability and class. Bang there but might need to battle like he has never done before up that hill. 9/2.
Djakadam - Possibly held by Don Cossack when that horse is at his best and fell last time. If none the worse, he is sure to have another good go after his excellent second in this last year when really well backed in the run up. This is a far stronger renewal though and can't imagine Ruby will choose this lad over Vautour. Opposable. 11/2.
Cue Card - Revitalised Betfair Chase and King George winner in line for a £1million bonus for connections if he wins this to land the 'Jumps Triple Crown.' Popular and classy 10yo who is in the best shape of his life. Must run another career best but not impossible and sure to bring the house down if victorious. Won the Champion Bumper and Ryanair and to he deserves to be the favourite here. 13/2.
Don Poli - Loveable rogue is one of my favourite horses in training. Strongest stayer in the field with a touch of class too. Won at the last two festivals though this is the day that will make a man of him. Usually first off the bridle but will never stop galloping, he'll be coming home best of all after becoming outpaced on the turn. 6/1.
Smad Place is also worth a mention but this looks too deep a race for him. If it was last year's field with the grey coming into it in his current form then you certainly would be tempted to back him each way at 12/1. He is sure to be a popular winner if he manages to pull it off but it will be a big achievement for him to even beat one or two of these, let alone all five.
In short, the five market leaders are a class apart and if you ran the race five different times you'd be fairly close to five different results. Nothing at bigger prices is worth considering, the winner has to come from this five and probably the second and third places too. In my mind Cue Card should be favourite and has a fantastic chance - would be great to see him win this and the £1million bonus for the popular Tizzard family and his owners. However, I'm going with heart over head as I always believe you should in life and Don Poli is my selection. He saved my 2014 festival when he won the Martin Pipe and I also had plenty on him for the RSA last year so I'm not going to desert him now on his road to Gold Cup glory. Hard to say who Bryan Cooper will ride but hopefully it's Cossack and if there is a god Davy Russell will ride this lad. While it's billed as the showpeice of the four days, recent renewals of the Gold Cup have lacked the line-up to boot, but this year it is very different. Make no mistake about it, this is going to be one hell of a Gold Cup.
Don Poli 6/1 (Various)
Foxhunters Steeple Chase
No Selection
Martin Pipe Conditional Handicap Hurdle - Qualando to peak for festival follow up
If Qualando gets in (very likely to) he has to be the bet in this race for me at this stage. It's not a race to go mad in but last years Fred Winter winner looks well treated off 136 and he took a big step back in the right direction last time. Acts round Cheltenham, will love the better ground and with Nicholls horses starting to fire this lad looks like he could be one of the yard's best chances of the Festival. Presumably the very capable Harry Cobden will ride as he was on top last time out when narrowly beaten by the well backed Tizzard fav and 12/1 is a price that has just about enough meat left on the bones to be chewed upon.
Qualando 12/1 each way (Various)
Grand Annual - Next Sensation to double up in finale
Next Sensation has been extremely popular on social media and for good reason. He continues to be backed and is under 8/1 on the exchange and looks likely to go off favourite for the festival curtain closer. He looked the winner of this in 2014 over the last when just tiring close home to be beaten just over a length for fourth off 142 but followed up that effort by winning this race last year off 143. He's been well beaten since but is now back down to 144, a mark that connections declared they were happy with for the follow up bid. He goes straight to the festival as one of the most obvious plots of the season as has to be backed on the back of his last two efforts in the race. Eastlake is a very likely danger racing off 1lb lower than when second in this last year and Minella Present is the improving horse to also consider after his unlucky 2nd last time out over C/D. The most solid option however, is Next Sensation who can burn them all off from the front to follow up last year's success in the finale.
Nex Sensation 12/1 each way (Boyles/BetVictor)
All Selections
I've rated the following from one to three stars to give you an idea of my thinking behind each one. One being a small chancy outsider bet, two being a solid bet, three being a very confident selection.
Supreme - Tombstone 16/1 each way (Ladbrokes) **
Festival H'Cap - The Young Master 20/1 each way (Paddy Power) **
Festival H'Cap - Holywell 14/1 each way (Ladbrokes, Hills, Boyles) **
NH Steeple Chase - Southfield Royale 11/1 each way (Bet365) **
Neptune - Yanworth 5/4 (Various) *****
RSA - No More Heroes 3/1 (Betfair SB) ***
Fred Winter - Diego Du Charmil 7/1 each way (Various)
JLT - Three Musketeers 20/1 each way (Various) *
Pertemps - Missed Approach 12/1 each way (Various) *
WH - Saphir Du Rheu 10/1 each way w/o Thistlecrack (Paddy Power) *
WH - Martello Tower 33/1 each way (Bet365) *
Byrne Plate - Johns Spirit 20/1 each way (Various) ***
Kim Muir - Doctor Harper 12/1 each way (Various) **
Triumph - Who Dares Wins 14/1 each way (Paddy/Hills) **
County Hurdle
Wait For Me 16/1 each way (Various) **
County Hudle
Montbazon 25/1 eacy way (Various) **
Albert Bartlett -
Shantou Village 6/1 (Various) ***
Albert Bartlett -
Bleu Et Rouge 25/1 each way (Betfred) **
Gold Cup -
Don Poli 6/1 (Various) **
Martin Pipe -
Qualando 12/1 each way (Various) **
Grand Annual -
Next Sensation 12/1 each way (Boyles/BetVictor) **
Results:
Winners: 7/1
Placed: 11/1, 14/1, 20/1, 16/1
Singles LSP at 1pt win and 0.5pt ew: -3.37pts
Banker: Yanworth - 2nd
NAP: No More Heroes - 4th
NB: Shantou Village - Unplaced
E/W NAP: John's Spirit - PU
E/W NB: Next Sensation - Unplaced
Handicap selections:
Festival Handicap - The Young Master 20/1 3rd
Festival Handicap - Holywell 14/1* 2nd
Fred Winter - Diego Du Charmil 7/1 WINNER
Pertemps - Missed Approach 12/1 Unplaced
Byrne Plate - Johns Spirit 20/1 PU
Kim Muir - Doctor Harper 12/1 UR
County Hurdle - Montbazon 25/1 UR
County Hurdle - Wait For Me 16/1* 4th
Matin Pipe - Qualando 12/1 Unplaced
Grand Annual - Next Sensation 12/1 Unplaced
The * next to the name represents the stronger fancy where there are two selections in one race.
Multiples
Banker/NAP/NB trixie:
Pays 45/1. - Lost
Arkle -
Douvan - 1st
Neptune -
Yanworth - 2nd
QMCC -
Un De Sceaux - 2nd
World Hurdle -
Thistlecrack - 1st
RSA -
No More Heroes - 4th
Albert Bartlett -
Shantou Village - Unplaced
Trebles, 4folds, 5folds, 6 fold.
Pays 208/1. - Lost
Retirement fund each way handicap yankee (1) :
Festival H'Cap - The Young Master
3rd
Byrne Plate - Johns Spirit
PU
Kim Muir - Doctor Harper
UR
Grand Annual - Next Sensation
Unplaced
Pays 47,123/1.
Retirement fund each way handicap yankee (2) :
County Hurdle - Wait For Me 4th
Pertemps - Missed Approach Unplaced
Byrne Plate - Johns Spirit PU
Grand Annual - Next Sensation Unplaced
Pays 60,332/1.
Retirement fund each way handicap yankee (3) :
County Hurdle - Montbazon
UR
Grand Annual - Next Sensation
Unplaced
Kim Muir - Doctor Harper
UR
Martin Pipe - Qualando
Unplaced
Pays 48,333/1.
Retirement fund each way handicap yankee (4) :
County Hurdle - Wait For Me
4th
Festival Handicap - Holywell
2nd
Martin Pipe - Squouateur
Byrne Plate - Johns Spirit
PU
Pays 28,610/1.
Each Way handicap Trixie (1) :
Triumph - Who Dares Wins
Unplaced
Martin Pipe - Squouateur
Unplaced
Fred Winter - Diego Du Charmil
WINNER
Pays 727/1.
Each Way handicap Trixie (2) :
Pays 4334/1.
Preview Evening Notes
Thursday 25th February - Paddy Power Preview Evening:
Panel: Sir Anthony McCoy (AP), Ruby Walsh (RW), Noel O'Brien (Irish Snr H'capper - NOB).
AP - Weak Supreme, Supasundae good each way chance.
RW - Min is a good thing to kick off the festival.
AP - Yanworth hard to beat and fancies him for the race.
RW - Yorkhill could run but both him and Willie afriad of Yanworth.
NOB - Yanworth outstanding.
RW - Long Dog a fair bit better than Bachasson.
RW - Myska the only thing that could get close to Limini.
AP - Douvan special, RW concurs.
AP - Thinks More of That will win the JLT. 'Bombproof.'
NOB - Facies Outlander, RW confirms he runs here instead of RSA or anywhere else.
RW - More of That 2nd best novice in training behind Douvan, wins wherever he runs.
RW - No More Heroes is beatable, Roi Des Francs good ew alternative.
RW - No standout in Champion Bumper. Augusta Kate is decent but fillies have poor record in race.
AP - Aspen Colorado far from a certain runner.
AP - Cup Final, If In Doubt and Doctor Harper his main three handicap fancies.
NOB - Leave at Dawn big chance after eyecatching run last time.
RW - Likes Children's List, Clondaw Warrior, Blazer, PFN's 2 unraced French horses in Fred Winter.
RW - No Decision on Annie Power yet. Only runs in CH if VVM is in top shape for Mares Hurdle.
RW - Annie not as good as Fly or Faugheen but has enough ability to win weak renewal like this.
AP - My Tent Or Yours in good shape, puts up Nichols Canyon as his bet for Champion Hurdle.
RW - Felix Younger a good ew bet in QMCC but UDS wins if he jumps.
AP - Felix Younger ew shout, UDS hard to beat, Dodging Bullets needs a transformation to compete.
RW - Ryanair weakest race of the festival. Fancies Smashing, Road To Riches too slow.
NOB - Likes Al Ferof, AP fancies Smashing each way like Ruby,
RW - Going to desperately try and persuade Ricci/Mullins to run Vautour in the Ryanair.
AP - Thistlecrack the banker of the meeting.
RW - Prince of Scars better value than Alpha Des Obeaux. Aux Ptits Soins he likes.
RW - Vroum Vroum Mag will definitely not run in the World Hurdle.
AP - Sceau Royale the pick of the brits for the Triumph. Panel agrees it's a weak renewal.
RW - Not decided on Gold Cup ride, will make mind up when they both work at the Curragh one week before.
AP - Vautour not a strong enough stayer, fancies Don Cossack.
RW - Puts up reverse forecast Djakadam/Vautour Gold Cup and Limini/Min/Douvan treble.
AP - More Of That in whatever race he runs in.
AP - Modus likely to go to the County Hurdle.
AP - MTOY will run a big race in the Champion Hurdle but acknowledges it's a huge ask to win.
Thursday 3rd March - Betbright Cheltenham Preview Evening:
Panel: Rich Ricci (RR), Sam Twiston Davies (STD), Paul Kealy (PK), Matt Chapman (MC).
Altior one of the best Nicky has sent to the Supreme for many years, RR points out that he hasn't won it in 24 years.
RR - Min is our best novice, not as good as Douvan but could be as good as Vautour.
Panel agrees Min will be a bigger price on day and best to wait if you fancy him. Henderson supposedly bullish about Altior and these two beginning to make the market a little bit. Min rated 152, Altior 154.
RR - Douvan something very special, big unit, still improving, best we've ever had.
RR - Thinks Douvan would beat Un De Sceaux if they ran against eachother in the QMCC.
RR - When Faugheen ruled out of Champion Hurdle, entering Douvan did cross his mind.
Vaniteux supposedly schooled incredibly well that morning, one of the best Henderson has ever sent to the Arkle.
PK - Sizing John 4/1 in the w/o Douvan market is 'amazing value.'
Garde La Victoire very likely to run in the JLT. Panel all fancy each way.
Think More of That JLT talk was nonsense, if Jonjo had his way he would be in Gold Cup cause he rates him that highly. Panel agree he is one to beat in RSA except PK who is a long term No More Heroes fan and thinks he has less to prove.
MC - Amazed Yanworth not supplemented for the Champion Hurdle.
RR - Likes Long Dog, tries hard, disappointed if doesn't make the frame though admits Yanworth looks very tough to beat.
MC - Barters Hill the Don Poli of the hurdle world.
Panel generally against him for the AB. Bleu et Rouge popular each way, out and out stayer, serious price.
RR - Thomas Hobson has some flat speed and class, MC says he cant jump.
PK - Likes Shantou Village on better ground and upped in trip, BH hurdling not improved, clumsy.
RR - Thomas Hobson will run a huge race, been schooling intensively and seemed very confident.
More of That put up as one of the bts of the week for the RSA by Irish Expert.
STD - Schofield on Zubayr, Bowen on Frodon, STD likely to ride Clan Des Obeaux after working better than Dodging Bullets at home that morning, says wouldn't take much to switch to Connetable mind.
STD - Diego Du Charmil the bet of the week in the Fred Winter. Nicholls happy with mark and saved him for this race. Worked all over other juveniles at an early season racecourse gallop including Frodon who he came clear of.
PK - Who Dares Wins to go well, better ground and faster pace to suit, quietly fancied.
Panel agree that Ivan Gorb is a terrible price. Won maiden, slammed up in grade and somehow still favourite for the Triumph.
STD - Dad's best chance of a winner is Bristol De Mai. May need it a tad softer but take some passing from the front.
STD - Bouvreuil been laid out for novice chase on day one all season. Nicholls runners always to be feared when targeting a specific race.
RR - Adamant that Annie in the CH is not a done deal. He has to be 100% happy with Vroum Vroum Mag in the days leading up before he'll supplement Annie.
STD - TNO unlucky 2014, bad prep 2015, this year he is as good as ever and couldnt possibly be in better shape. If he finishes 3rd then that's as good as he is now and will never be better,
STD - Chose Saphir Du Rheu because he's been there and done it and had a much more straightforward prep than Aux Ptits Soins who has had lots of training problems.
Nicky Henderson has apparently said that Whisper is his best chance of a festival winner in the World Hurdle. In sensational form and thinks he'll run a huge race.
RR - Great for racing if Sprinter Sacre wins the Champion Chase. (applause)
PK - UK horses not good enough, UDS in a different league for the QMCC.
STD - Dodge in good form and stays the trip really well, will like the strong pace but obviously must improve massively for comeback.
RR - Not seeing the usual spark from Vautour at home in recent weeks but stresses it was the same last year and he suddenly picked up again just before the festival. Stresses he runs in the Gold Cup or stays at home in his box.
Panel agrees that Road To RIches is the one to beat in a weak Ryanair that will cut up, prob go off clear fav.
Ruby is convinced on good-soft or better that Vautour will stay and have an outstanding chance of winning the Gold Cup.
RR - refuses to answer who he prefers of his two GC runners despite persistent questioning but later sides with Vautour as his pick for the race.
PK/MC - Supreme winners don't win Gold Cups.
RR - Djakadam not schooled since his fall and the next time he leaves the ground will be the first fence in the Gold Cup.
STD - Would ride Vautour if he had the choice of any runner in the race.
RR - Turcagua has a very good each way chance in the bumper. Also says Kalkir misses the festival with injury.
MC - Gordon Elliot thinks Desoto County chucked in for the County Hurdle. Killer Crow was put away and wrapped up after been given 136 by the h'capper. Great chance of 136 in the Nov Hcap Chase day 1.
MC - Hobbs told him his best chances were Kruzhlinin, Rock The Kasbah, If in Doubt but especially Wait for Me in the County Hurdle.
PK - Fancies Fingal Bay in race 3 day 1. Good ground, fences what he wants, 2/3 Chelt, 20/1 huge.
Irish expert says Leave At Dawn and Squoateour very well in. Former has sole entry and course form, thinks later could be punted in to a short priced fav closer to the time.
RR - Festival NAP is a banker treble of Limini, VVM and Douvan. Adds Annie for the fourfold.
PK - Festival NAP is Altior.
MC - Festival NAP is Yanworth.
STD - Diego Du Charmil but also mentions looking forward to riding Ballyandy.
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THT
