11 individual horses
45 individual runs
17 winners (38% SR)
31 placed (69% SR)
With a few of those twos and threes turning into ones and a little bit more luck on side, these stats could have easily been all the more impressive, but that's the nature of racing and especially so over obstacles.
Hopefully it will be more of the same for the horses on the level and this list has been compiled from a combination of personal notes, my own form study, trainers comments, word of mouth, the work and recommendations of other knowledgable racing folk and one or two were even put forward by the good people of Twitter-land themselves. From 40+ contenders, I've whittled it down to fifteen horses that are, in my head at least, must follows for the year ahead. If you have a tracker then add the names below, if you don't but would like your own then I find the free 'My Stable' feature on the Sportinglife website to be very easy to use. You can add horses and even trainers/jockeys if you wish and you will get an email the night before they run to let you know they are declared. All you need is a Skybet account and away you go. Furthermore with the Sportinglife website, you can watch race replays, look into form, entries etc - I find myself on there more than Racing Post and Attheraces sites in all honesty. Anyway, on to the selections:
ALJULJALAH - 3yo filly by Exhange Rate/Ruler's Charm - 19
It's still early days for this American bred filly but she knew her job on debut when nicely winning a Newmarket maiden. Atzeni kept things simple having her on the heels of the leaders and letting her do her thing as they approached the furlong marker. She put the race to bed nicely and while the form of that race is yet to really be tested, one horse of Sir Michael Stoute's has subsequently come out and won. Next time she was asked a big question bumped up into Group 3 company. She came there travelling well enough 2f out but didn't have the toe to really ever make much of an impression. The bit of juice in the ground that day would not have suited her and she is better than that, but only being beaten 6L in Group company on only her second career start is nothing to be too disappointed with. She has reportedly been doing some promising homework and will likely be campaigned over a mile. Fast ground is key to this horse and she is likely to start her campaign at York in a listed race next month after a little setback prevented her running in a Guineas trial earlier on in the season. The Roger Varian trained 3yo holds a Coronation Stakes entry too and could well turn out to be an above average filly.
ANDASTRA - 3yo filly by Kamsin/Arpista - 1
This German bred filly put up a very professional performance on debut when making all unchallenged at Nottingham back in September. The form hasn't amounted to much as many behind have since been brought along with handicaps in mind though the third from that race has subsequently won a maiden at the least. The manner which she travelled through the race and put the race to bed is what created a lasting impression and she clocked a decent time in the process. Her pedigree suggests stepping up in trip could bring out the best in her and this is exactly the type of horse Ralph Beckett excels with. She had a bit of a niggle over winter but is back in full work now and heads to the Lingfield Oaks Trial all being well. A bold show there could well see her lining up at Epsom; her trainer has high aspirations for her this season and she is a filly to keep on side through the course of the coming months.
BESS OF HARDWICK - 4yo filly by Dansili/Request - 31
Luca Cumani is a trainer I really like and he has started the season in fine form. This half-sister to Ask could be one of his leading lights this season judged by her two runs last term. Her debut form has worked out very well, with the winner she was beaten 2L by having subsequently won a Listed contest and a Group 2. She also had a horse behind that's now rated 96 as well as a few other horses in her trail who have since come out and won. Despite being markedly green, she came home with an encouraging rattle and might have troubled the winner and the second with another few strides. Bess duly won her maiden next time at short odds beating a subsequent winner on the bridle in the process and was then put away for winter. If she reappears in a handicap she will take some stopping off 87. Whether her trainer saves her for a staying handicap such as the Ebor or whether he cracks on with her right away, I'm not sure, but either way she looks like she'll stay further than the mile and a half and she looks a serious filly in the making. Any amount of improvement to come and despite my slight loathing feeling for the phrase, 'could be anything' does apply here. A must follow.
BROROCCO - 3yo gelding by Shirocco/Lady Brora - 69467
A five race maiden isn't the type of horse you would expect to see on a horses to follow list but bear with me. He was obviously showing something at home as he was put in a Group 3 on his second start but ran too green to do himself justice, running an encouraging race nevertheless. He was then very well fancied on his reappearance/handicap debut (11/10 market leader) but he got a bit upset in the prelims and took off down to the start with his rider and basically lost the race before the off in which he ran far too keen to ever have had much of a chance anyway. Connections tried a hood last time but that didn't work either, he pulled far too hard once more and gave himself no chance of staying the trip. Now rated 5lbs his handicap debut when well backed, he gives the impression that he could be dangerously well handicapped if they find the key to settling him at home. A drop in trip could be on the cards due to his free going nature and he is clearly showing a lot more on the gallops than he is allowing himself to do on the track. He has been called 'high class' and has 'considerable ability' according to his trainer Andrew Balding and is the type to rack up a sequence if they can get inside his head at home. A risky and odd addition to this list I know, but he could be chucked in off 74.
CHESS MASTER - 3yo colt by Sharmardal/Cassandra Go - 3
This son of Sharmardal ran a very encouraging race on debut at Leicester staying on steadily into the money behind subsequent Royal Lodge third Muntazah. Charlie Appleby's usually need their debut run and will often show marked improvement on their second outing and this one can do the same. A maiden should be a formality in the coming weeks and he can make his presence felt in handicaps after he's got a win under his belt. He could progress enough to line up in a big 3yo handicap later in the season and ultimately could be a pattern horse. Positive reports in a recent stable tour only add fuel to the fire and I'm looking forward to seeing this nicely named 3yo back out on the track.
DANCING STAR - 3yo filly by Aqlaam/Strictly Dancing - 417
Another one to follow in run of the mill handicaps this season, this daughter of Aqlaam can make her presence felt off what could be a lenient mark of 75. She came on from her highly encouraging debut run at Windsor to win nicely on her second start at the same track. With the substance of the form yet to be really tested despite a dual subsequent winner finishing in behind it is hard to say quite how well handicapped she could be but the manner of the victory was impressive. Despite reportedly hating the course last time at Chester she was still only beaten four lengths in a Class 2 conditions race and can take advantage of a drop in class when she reappears in a handicap on a better suiting track. She has no entries at the time of writing but the time to catch her could be first time out though she can hopefully rack up a bit of a sequence and progress through the handicap ranks throughout the season.
G K CHESTERTON - 3yo colt by Poet's Voice/Neptune's Bride - 31
When I've seen Charlie Appleby talk about this horse, I've got the impression he holds this son of Poet's Voice in the highest regard. Despite a perfectly nice but fairly unexciting pedigree he ran a cracker on debut to finish 3rd beaten a neck and a head by two nice horses. A neck in front of him was a very exciting filly of Ralph Beckett's called Mountain Bell (rated 95) who hosed up in a maiden at Windsor next time and could turn into a credible Oaks contender as the season develops. A length behind GKC in forth was Ennaadd, a horse that has since completed a hattrick and is now rated 106. This gives the form a very solid look and he duly confirmed his debut promise when winning professionally at Redcar on soft ground. He won comfortably by 5L from a subsequent maiden winner of William Haggas' and was alloted a mark of 89. This looks extremely exploitable and he is one to watch out for on reappearance. His target was meant to be a 0-95 handicap at the Guineas meeting (for which he would have been a cracking bet) but he holds no entry. He can progress from handicap company rather quickly though this season and could be seen racing at up to 1m4f as the year goes on. A must follow and remains in the Derby at the time of writing.
GREAT AND SMALL - 3yo filly by Galileo/Gryada - 8
Finishing a well beaten eighth of ten on debut isn't usually one that screams out as a horse to follow but this filly by the most successful sire in racing history is of interest though admittedly this is a risky addition to the list. She's closely rated to Aiden O'Brien's brilliant stayer Fame And Glory and will be seen to best effect as she gradually steps up in distance herself. It's no secret that this trainer's horses often need their first run and she was a raw backward type last year. Reportedly wintered brilliantly and has come back in looking a different horse and worth watching out for in a maiden in the coming weeks as her work has apparently been pleasing those close to the horse at home. Could progress into a nice handicap prospect later on in the year and should win races.
GREAT ORDER - 3yo colt by Distorted Humour/Michita - 4
Went off favourite on debut in traditionally strong maiden at Newmarket but the penny dropped all too late when storming home from off the pace for a never nearer forth. The form is working out with the winner having since won a Group 3 and a maiden will be a formality on reappearance. He posesses a lovely pedigree as you would expect and can make his presence felt in some decent races this season at a mile and beyond. Could be an exciting prospect for the boys in blue and certainly worthy of an addition to your tracker.
MUTAWAALY - 3yo colt by Cape Cross/Sana Abel - 15
This colt out of a half sister to 2005 Oaks heroine Eswarah won a Wolverhampton maiden back in December and reappeared with a disappointing fifth on his first handicap start when the ground went against him. He needs top of the ground and the soft ground at Newmarket prevented him from rewarding the significant market confidence behind him. (11/10 fav) While his dam is yet unproven, his trainer seems to think plenty of him with a potential trip to Royal Ascot already on the radar despite a current handicap rating of only 85. When he gets his ideal conditions, he should show himself to be a progressive sort and he heads to Chester over 1m4f on May 4th all being well and must hold every chance if the ground comes up right.
NEW WORLD POWER - 3yo colt by Deep Impact/Listen - Unraced
Another Roger Varian inmate, this time the impeccably bred New World Power. His exciting Japanese pedigree points towards this horse staying 1m4f+ in time and he still holds the Derby entry. He is extremely well regarded by his trainer and was given a very positive report in a recent stable tour when mentioned alongsides Choreographer who won impressively on his first career start at Windsor on 25th April. With horses from this outfit usually knowing their job on debut, first time up could be the time to catch him. Exciting horse that should be seen on a racecourse in the next couple of weeks.
RAH RAH - 3yo filly by Lonhro/Rahiyah - 110541
A filly I kept onside last year, I'm a big fan of this Godolphin-owned 3yo. I'm always a little cautious when fillies have had busy 2yo campaigns but Rah Rah showed no ill-effects when winning nicely on her reappearance despite being outpaced in rear and having them all to pass in the straight. She won cosily despite the inadequate trip and is likely to be competing in Group races from now on. There is talk of a potential move up to 7f+ and she holds an eye-catching Coronation Stakes entry at Royal Ascot despite a current mark of only 102. She picked up a niggle after that last run but is back in work and although she has a tempting mark for a big heritage handicap, her likely next race will be the Group 2 Duke of York Clipper Logisitics Stakes in May. As her trainer has said about her, 'the sky's the limit.'
SHADAD - 3yo colt by Zamindar/Tender Morn - 6
Very backward colt who ran a promising debut when not unfancied at two. He was very keen going to post and also refused to settle in the race but wasn't beaten all that far and will have learnt a lot from the experience. Put away for the winter, he's back in full training and has been doing some good homework, showing the benefits of a recent gelding operation. His trainer thinks a bit of him and we are likely to see him racing over 7f-1m. He should be well up to winning a maiden in the coming weeks and can progress through the handicap ranks once he's got his head in front. Not an obvious one but he can win races this season and could be alright with a nice pedigree to boot.
SPANGLED - 4yo filly by Starspangledbanner/Zykina - 71147
The forth Roger Varian inmate on this list, this big imposing filly by Starspangledbanner can make considerable improvement from three to four like the stable's Talmada and Ambivalent have shown in the past. She had an excuse at York and is better than she ran on her final 3yo start at HQ. With reports of exciting homework it is likely she can make the most of a mark of 97 when she returns which is likely to be in a fillies handicap at Ascot in May. Her trainer is hopeful she can make the jump from handicap to pattern company sooner rather than later and is likely to be kept over 7f-1m. The form of her Newmarket win on handicap debut has worked out well (five subsequent winners behind) and continues to be franked and this filly is sure to improve considerably as the season progresses.
TO BE WILD - 3yo colt by Big Bad Bob/Fire Up - 5
This Al Kazeem relation ran a most encouraging race on debut in a Newmarket maiden, green as grass in rear before powering home once the penny dropped for a never nearer fifth beaten eight or so lengths by Mustajeer, who has since shown himself to be pretty useful finishing second in the Fielden and holding the Dante/Derby entries. In second that day was Linguistic of John Gosden's who won the 200,000 Tatersalls 3yo Trophy on reappearance and himself holds the Dante entry for which he's likely to be prominent in the betting on the day if he lines up. In third was stablemate Mengli Khan who since won a maiden and then ran in the Racing Post Trophy before being beaten 3L in the Fielden on reappearance this season. Muzdawaj was forth that day and he subsequently won a maiden and two horses behind have also since come out and won. In short this was a very decent maiden and with the experience under his belt and a potential step up in trip in order, To Be Wild can shed his tag before progressing to bigger and better things for a trainer on the ascent. One to be excited about.
Fifteen to follow:
Aljuljalah - 208422
Andastra -
*Bess Of Hardwick - 8411
Brorocco - 42311433
Chess Master - 7
Dancing Star - 112119
*G K Chesterton - 57
Great and Small - 9124
Great Order - 31122
Mutawaaly - 8
New World Power - 234
Rah Rah - 90
Shadad - 4210
Spangled - 10511
*To Be Wild - 11
* = Must Follow
Form:
91272048114233212912854803101111142119413420134527121
Winners:
Dancing Star 4/1
Spangled 11/8
Dancing Star 5/2
Shadad 4/1
Shadad 4/1
Dancing Star 7/1
Great Order 11/10
Spangled 5/2
Great and Small 10/1
To Be Wild 4/6
Brorocco 13/2
Dancing Star 9/2
Brorocco 5/4
Great Order 5/2
Spangled 14/1
Bess Of Hardwick 10/3
To Be Wild 6/1
Bess of Hardwick 9/2
Bess of Hardwick 9/2
LSP (SP):
+41.72pts
Hope you enjoyed the read and should be plenty of winners to be backed from this lot throughout the course of the season. Let me know your thoughts and feedback on Twitter @THTRacing.
THT
