DAY 1
Supreme
We've already put up with truckloads of hype, some dodgy headlines and a hilarious UK mark of 153 for Melon but with the yard's recent record in the race and the infectious confidence seemingly behind him, he's clearly expected to go pretty close. 4/1 is the type of price that you have the feeling could look very generous in ten days time and I'm sure he'll go off nearer to 2/1 fav. That being said, he's only won a weak maiden hurdle and his lack of experience could mean the hype is worth taking on with a bit of form. Battle-hardened champion bumper winner Ballyandy is one to consider if lining up though putting your hard earned on Moonracer is taking an awful lot on trust for a yard that have had a desperate season by their standards. Bunk Off Early is an intriguing contender as the apparent second string for Willie Mullins while you could see River Wylde finishing in the money as he is unbeaten over hurdles, though he was beaten out of sight on his sole course start in a bumper - enough to put me off. Pingshou is probably a bigger price than he should be as this is his confirmed target and he beat a couple of nice horses over C/D before Christmas. He had every chance coming to the last in a Listed race next time out over 2m4f but just got tired up the straight. The drop back in trip will suit so 50/1 looks generous though you'd fancy at least one or two to be too good either way. Movewiththetimes is the tentative selection here for Paul Nicholls whose squad seems a little underestimated this time around. With many well handicapped horses in his midst and the odd nice novice, I could see him equalling or pushing past last year's total of three winners over the four days. This lad has shown a record of steady improvement and I really like the look of some of his form. He looked the winner of the Betfair Hurdle before just being outjumped at the last but he should have improved from that and will really appreciate the better ground that is forecast. The two times he has been beaten, the ground was soft and this progressive young novice has to be an each way bet at the 9/1 still on offer at the time of writing. Not one to be overly confident in a trappy Supreme, but he should have the class to be in the shake up in the closing stages.
EDIT - With Movewiththetimes now being a NR as well as Moonracer heading for the Champion Hurdle, I'm going to advise a small each way punt on Pingshou who remains at 50/1 despite the two notable absentees. Ballyandy is probably the one to beat now but in a trappy Supreme that looks like it could throw up a big price, it may be Pingshou that outruns his odds.
Selection - Pingshou 50/1 each way
Arkle
I'm fully convinced that Altior is the best horse in training and despite connections opting not to provide a blockbuster clash with Douvan in the QMCC, he will likely have no problem seeing off what looks like being a fairly depleted field against him. Charbel is a horse I do like and is probably one for the forecast despite the fact I would have loved to have seen him in the JLT but if Altior gets round I can't see anything getting close and a winning distance bet may be the only thing to considerb at an inflated price, if that's your thing.
No bet.
Ultima
This looks like being the best renewal of this race in living memory with a host of big named handicappers set to do battle. Last year's 1-2-3 all look likely to line up again and Holywell off 5lbs lower looks the most appealing to me and I have him backed. With no other obvious targets this season, this looks like being the race they'll have him primed for and he is dangerously well treated considering some of his course form. He is taken to be in the money. Un Temps Pour Tout is entitled to run well again though connections of The Young Master wouldn't want to leave his season behind here with The Grand National just around the corner. In such a competitive race you can't be afraid to throw a couple of darts and that's just what I've done here as off the same mark as when winning this two years ago I can't let The Druids Nephew go unbacked. With positive reports from his trainer in the press and no doubts about his stamina I'm happy to take some 14/1 before it dries up. Some of the Irish contingent look interesting but I fancy one of the English to take it this year and with a bit of luck it will be one of the two selections.
Selections - The Druids Nephew 14/1 each way and Holywell 14/1 each way
Champion Hurdle
JP McManus looks to have one hand on the trophy already with both Yanworth and Buveur D'Air sporting his colours here though it is a very open renewal. With no superstar lining up and holes to be picked in many of the runners, it's there for the taking and a young progressive horse like Brain Power could well be the type of horse that could step up to the plate. His win in the Grade 3 at Ascot was visually impressive and he comes here a fresh horse though I'd want a bit more each way juice to warrant parting with my hard earned. At this stage I haven't backed any of them but if you held a gun to my head then I'd opt for the Henderson second string to step up and be in the first three.
No bet.
Mares Hurdle
There is little doubt that Limini is probably the one to beat here though Apples Jade will certainly throw down a strong challenge with her liking for the track displayed when a close second in last year's triumph. With Vroum Vroum Mag expected to take up her chance in the Champion Hurdle this leaves a very open market excluding the top two and there is an each way opportunity to be had. Plenty in the betting probably won't run but one that looks likely to is Indian Stream. She hasn't been seen since getting the better of Theatre Guide at Wetherby who has since franked the form but her record fresh is a perfect two from two. She is a tremendously consistent mare having finished in the first three on fifteen of her eighteen career starts and with the possibility of plenty more improvement to come I fancy she is wildly overpriced at 66/1. While she would be better suited by fences (rated 10lbs higher over larger obstacles) she showed a liking for the place when trouncing up in a listed mares chase on her only course start and with the front two being very short I'll take a punt on her to outrun her odds.
Selection - Indian Stream 66/1 each way
National Hunt Chase
Bigbadjohn catches the eye in this race as he looks like he'll really benefit from a step up in trip. A progressive young horse with staying potential and some smart form to his name, he ticks plenty of boxes and 16/1 is worth a wager each way. He has yet to face the Cheltenham hill however and showed a tendency to jump left at Ascot, though that shouldn't be a probelm here going left handed. He'll certainly give whoever rides him a good spin round but I'm going double handed again here by also taking some 16/1 about Arpege D'Alene for the Champion trainer. The way he powered clear at Aintree earlier in the season was memorable and he has been outpaced before rallying well on his last two starts, most recently behind the other selection Bigbadjohn. I really feel moving up in trip and the bigger field will see considerable improvement from this grey who holds that precious bit of course form having come a close second in last year's Pertemps. He's taken to reverse the form with John under these different conditions and would be one of my stronger selections over the four days - I can't see him being out of the frame.
Selections - Bigbadjohn 16/1 each way and Arpege D'Alene* 16/1 each way - placed
Close Brothers Novices Handicap Chase
The final race on day one sees a fiendishly difficult handicap to sort out and it's hard to be overly confident with anything. Foxtail Hill ran a super trial for this when winning impressively over C/D from some decent horses in the Grade 3 Barbados Trophy and he's been understandably well supported since that success for local connections. I've gone with Romain De Senam though, who very nearly won the Fred Winter at last year's meeting and that precious festival form always instills confidence especially when it looks as if one has been targeted for a race all season as this lad looks to have been. The step up in trip and return to Cheltenham promises to suit this unexposed chaser and 10/1 is a big enough price for me to have a go. One that's way down the list for most but who is guaranteed a run is Tom George's in and out novice, Bun Doran. His trainer believes he will improve for some better underfoot conditions and he has always been well thought of at home. If he can put it all together on the day then this strong traveller could well outrun his odds of 33/1 and he's worth a small wager against the main selection.
EDIT - Romain De Senam missed the cut by one, which is pretty gutting. I'll stick with our longshot as the only selection for this race now.
Selection - Bun Doran 33/1 each way
*Day One NAP - Arpege D'Alene 16/1 each way - placed
DAY 2
Neptune
Everything I've heard regarding Neon Wolf says he's very well fancied despite being the type to save his best for the track but there are a few contenders of interest here. Despite the Tolworth Hurdle form being pretty mundane, Finian's Oscar has answered every question put to him so far and it's hard to knock the credentials of an unbeaten horse. Bacardys is of more interest to me at 5/1 and showed a liking for the course when he wasn't beaten far in last year's Champion Bumper. He was travelling strongly when falling on his reappearance but put that right with two wins since, last time in the Grade 1 Deloitte and that form is pretty good. More needed here however and he is more exposed than the two already mentioned so I'm looking for an alternative, though he has as good a chance as any and I would rate him the main danger against my tentative selection. The horse carrying my money here is Ben Pauling's Willoughby Court at what looks an overly generous 16/1. He was beaten on hurdle debut/seasonal reappearance but has put that right twice since, last time winning a Grade 2 when heavily backed, making all. The form looks good and has been franked since; with plenty more to come he looks the standout bet though not the type of race to get too heavily involved with for me. That said, his trainer is convinced that he is in super form at home and with no ground concerns either way he looks the solid bet of the race.
Selection - Willoughby Court 16/1 each way - WINNER
RSA
I don't think I've seen a horse put up as lay of the festival more than Might Bite who remains the antepost favourite for this race at the time of writing. He was going to fizz up in the Feltham before a horrid looking fall at the last - something which can often take the horse some time to get over. He was understandably not as fluent as you may have liked next time out when his victory was a formality in a three runner race, where Ma Du Fou sadly fell and lost his life. This will be a completely different test and I do understand the negatives, especially as I am not a particular fan of his sire, Scorpion. That said, if his jumping holds up he seems to have the class to go very close. It's a wide open race and you can expect a much better performance from Alpha Des Obeaux though it is a great concern that he burst a blood vessel last time out and that's enough to put me off. He does have festival form however, finishing a clear second behind Thistlecrack in last year's World Hurdle. 2014 Coral Cup winner Whisper loves the place and has to be feared while Acapella Bourgeois' recent romp probably shouldn't be taken too literally though he is a young chaser on the up. I've had an each way play in this race at what looks an overly generous 20/1 about Our Kaempfer. He's certainly not a speedball but with a solid fifth (beaten 2L) in last year's Pertemps under his belt as well as an impressive win last time out, he's well worth his place in the field; after all he is only 4lbs lower than the favourite on official ratings. He seems pretty unfussed when it comes to ground conditions and with the horse in good form and with the prospect of more improvement to come, I fancy he is overpriced and well worth an each way bet.
Selection - Our Kaempfer 20/1 each way*
Coral Cup
Notoriously one of the hardest puzzles to solve at the festival with the last winning favourite being in 2003, the Coral Cup is a minefield of well handicapped horses to pick through. With no specific trends in terms of age groups or trainers that target the race, it's the type of race that some punters love, but ultimately it's where the bookmakers are happiest doing business. Finding a well handicapped horse in this race is easy and my pin has dropped on Bleu Et Rouge. With NRNB assurances, if he ends up going elsewhere (only other entry is County Hurdle) it's not the end of the world. Granted, he isn't the most fluent jumper in the world and would likely prefer a bit of juice in the ground but this horse is still fairly unexposed and looks leniently treated off 147. He's had horses like Tombstone, Petit Mouchoir and Belshill behind him in the past and he should enjoy a strongly run race around Prestbury Park. At 20/1 he's worth an each way stab but it really is a race to have a little each way bet in and not expect a lot back. Other contenders include Automated who has been put up by Gordon Elliot and Jack Kennedy as their dark horse, Tombstone who has been backed for this in the last few days but holds other entries and Peregrine Run who looks well treated but may possibly be kept fresh for Punchestown. The rapid-improving Kalondra and last year's Triumph winner Ivanovich Gorbatov are others to consider but it's a wide open race and I'm happy with my selection.
EDIT - Bleu Et Rouge doesn't go so I'm taking a punt on former JLT winner Taquin Du Seuil to out run his odds of 22/1. Some bookmakers are paying six places each way and on his best form he'd have a real shout. His most eyecatching run was his reappearance over hurdles in October and he's clearly been primed for a run at the festival. He is a real class angle of the race and can make his presence felt in a traditionally wide open Coral Cup.
Selection - Taquin Du Seuil 22/1 each way
Champion Chase
This is likely to be a small field and one way traffic barring a mishap. I'm not a big bettor in the W/O the favourite markets so for me it's a watching brief and hopefully Douvan can do something really special, though his likely lack of opposition may mean he won't come far out of second gear.
No bet.
Cross Country
This is a race I don't bet in, though whatever turns up in the green and gold hoops usually goes off favourite and he looks to have a few intriguing contenders this year, especially in the shape of Cause Of Causes. Cantlow is the 9/4 favourite at the time of writing and whilst I enjoy watching the race, there's nothing that stands out. That said, if you want to steal a bit of place money then there'd be worse bets than old boy Any Currency though I won't have any of my hard earned on the line.
No bet.
Fred Winter
Another race I don't get too heavily involved with but I'll probably have a few quid on whatever Paul Nicholls sends here given his impressive recent record in the race. They look likely to be Dolos and Dreamcatching by the looks of things. I'll wait til the day either way anyway.
No bet.
Champion Bumper
The Wednesday is usually a fairly quiet betting day for me as the Champion Bumper is another race I tend to leave alone. With that said, Western Ryder is a big enough price to warrant an each way bet at 10/1 for me this time around. He looks to be the best chance of a British winner and can put his experience to good use against those with less runs under their belt. He's tough, has a good turn of foot and the occasion won't faze him and just looks the solid bet of the race. It would be no shock if one of the lesser exposed rivals improved past him on the day but at the price I'm happy with a little each way play on him.
Selection - Western Ryder 10/1 each way
*Day Two NAP - Our Kaempfer 20/1 each way
DAY 3
JLT
This looks like it'll end up being a pretty small but select field and Yorkhill is the obvious answer given he has only tasted defeat once in his career under rules when feeling the effects of a long season at Punchestown last year. He is a horse with an abundance of ability and after Altior and Douvan, this lad could well be the best horse around over trips shorter than three miles. Dodging Altior wasn't unexpected but I would love to have seen this horse back over two miles where the stronger gallop would just help him settle that bit better. With that being said, the horse is a character to say the least and does have an alarming tendency to jump left and sometimes wildly at his fences. On raw ability alone though, he should be pretty hard to beat here. The opposition includes the small but mightily brave Top Notch who has won his last four but faces a stiffer task bossing this field though could be the one for the forecast as he has previous festival form on the CV. The way the Nicholls camp are talking, Politologue is the next best thing but he didn't get up the hill last year in the Coral Cup and 6/1 doesn't offer much juice each way as he'll need to improve on the bare form of two and three runner races he has been contesting of late. Disko is an improving young chaser but has never visited Cheltenham before though shouldn't be wanting for stamina as he stays further than 2m4f. He is an intriguing contender for Noel Meade and the Gigginstown second string Balko Des Flos is no mug either. For me though, the biggest disappointment for me is that Charbel is not lining up here. Connections obviously feel that 2m is his trip and they'd rather come second to Altior than being unsure whether his stamina would hold out over the extra half a mile but it surely would have been the race to find out in. From a betting perspective, despite the fact I do really rate Yorkhill and think he is the likeliest winner, his temperament and his jumping are enough to have me just watching without shelling out at 7/4. If you are on at bigger prices, well done, but I'm not and happy to just watch this one.
No bet.
Pertemps
It would be great for the remarkable Tobefair to win this for Debra Hamer and his enthusiastic bunch of owners and with form figures of 1111111 you can't really knock him. The only thing you would say is that he will have to improve again though this isn't the type of horse you would be doubting on that front. He deserves his place at the head of the market and it would be a great victory for the 'little guy.' With that being said I want to find a horse ahead of his handicap mark at a bigger price and Impulsive Star looks to have solid claims. He won a decent qualifier at Chepstow in good style and looks assured to run a big race with course form in the book though I'm going to go for something at a meatier price. Like the Coral Cup, it's a minefield and you'll do well to back the winner but For Good Measure is my fancy here. Exclusively raced at Cheltenham this season, he certainly knows his way around the place and was short headed by a stablemate on seasonal debut in a qualifier before never being put in the race next time out in November. He needed a better run to ensure he had a good chance of getting in and he delivered with a good second behind Call To Order before Christmas. He hasn't been seen since and with a protected mark of 138 and this looking the plan all along, he looks a worthy wager at 14/1 each way for a race that both trainer and owner nearly won last year with If In Doubt. He's raced on every type of ground but it may be that the better the ground the better his chance and I'm convinced he won't go off anything like the price he is now.
Selection - For Good Measure 14/1 each way
Ryanair
It's a very open and competitive looking renewal with Un De Sceaux the market leader at 3/1. He's seen to best effect over the bare minimum trip and there will be stronger stayers in the field than him. I'm aware he has run over further in France but a Festival race around Cheltenham being run at Grade 1 pace is a totally different game and there are plenty of alternatives at bigger prices that warrant consideration. I'd fancy 2015 winner Uxizandre to reverse the form for a start as he showed he was as good as ever with a fine reappearance run over an inadequate trip. That was his first start since that Ryanair success and his fine course record enhances his appeal. Bounce factor aside, he appears to have a great shout of being in the shake up with the likely reapplication of headgear another positive. If he was a couple of points bigger he'd be one of the best value each way bets of the week for me. Fox Norton is looking likelier to run here with every day that passes and he would hold place claims while Empire Of Dirt's form is strong and he has a festival win to his name so is hard to knock. Gordon Elliott hasn't been shy in letting people know he'd rather see him in the Gold Cup and it's a shame the owner is the way he is as he'd have been a very interesting contender for the big one. It's possible this will be a bit on the sharp side for him but he'll be coming up the hill better than any and can't be discounted. Overall, despite being a slightly skinnier price than I'd have liked, there's still just enough juice to warrant backing Uxizandre each way and I recommend you do the same at 6/1 before that disappears.
Selection - Uxizandre 6/1 each way
Stayers Hurdle
Cole Harden has finished in the first four on nineteen of his twenty career starts and just doesn't know how to run a bad race. He wants good ground and has had a knee issue but that's now been sorted and he posted his best effort since winning this race in 2015 on his last outing. (Popular theme building here) That run was over this course and distance but on his unpreffered soft ground, beaten less than two lengths by 11/8 favourite Unowhatimeanharry. This is his time of the year and at 9/1 he is a cracking bet each way against the favourite as he has been there and done it and will be tough to pass from the front. The better the ground, the better his chance and while the favourite has incredibly won his last eight, the price difference is way too exaggerated for me and I think these two have it between them though I would love to see Jeki go well too. I can't see Cole Harden out of the frame though; solid.
Selection - Cole Harden 9/1 each way
Brown Advisory Plate
Diamond King has an obvious chance here off what looks a manageable mark based on his Coral Cup win last year but in a race of this nature you want a big price to really get stuck in to. I have actually backed Diamond King antepost at 10/1+ but as he's now 6/1 and this is when I'm posting this blog, I'm not going to sit here and say back him at the current price. (In case the Twitter Police come and find me) This race is probably one for nearer the day in all honesty as with around 100 horses currently in the market it's a minefield of potential NR's.
No bet.
Mares Novices Hurdle
The two Irish mares at the top of the betting look like shaping the market if they both turn up but there's a horse in here for the each way thieves like myself and that horse is La Bague Au Roi. She's unbeaten over hurdles and looked good at Newbury the last day when really sticking to her task and readily asserting up the run in from a decent yardstick of Alan King's. She's not been seen since November but her trainer couldn't hold her in higher regard and better ground will only aid her cause. I think she has a big performance in her and could have the Irish mares in trouble swinging for home and like Cole Harden from the same yard, she could be tough to pass from the front.
Selection - La Bague Au Roi 7/1 each way
Kim Muir
The trickily named Squouateur was the gamble of the festival last year in the Martin Pipe but could never get into the race. This year he is probably the most obvious 'plotjob' going into the festival but off 135 he might struggle to get a run anywhere now. He is being backed for this race however, and must come under consideration if he did sneak in off bottom weight. Mall Dini has been a popular choice in the build up to the race and has been steadily supported into 8/1 favouritsm. Last year's Pertemps winner has posted a string of consistent performances this season over fences but is yet to get his head in front. He'll consequently run off 143 if he turns up and is clearly capable off a mark like that. Doctor Harper is an interesting contender and I really fancied him last year but one who has been confirmed for the race and is undoubtedly well handicapped is Southfield Royale. We all know how good the form of last year's National Hunt Chase is and he was dropped a generous 6lbs for his reappearance run which he would be expected to come on plenty for. That puts him off 141 here, a mark this young progressive chaser looks very well treated off. At 12/1, he represents super each way value and it's not out of the question to see him going off favourite on the day as he did at last year's festival.
Selection - Southfield Royale 12/1 each way*
*Day Three NAP - Southfield Royale 12/1 each way
DAY 4
Triumph
Charli Parcs was still bang there when falling two out at Kempton last month and had previously hammered Master Blueyes over the same C/D. I'm inclined to forgive that and he looks overpriced at 10/1, especially considering the horse he beat on the bridle the time before is shorter at 7/1, though the latter has clearly improved since then. With that being said, it's a poor crop this year on the face of it and it's very likely the green and gold hoops will be carried to success but I suspect it will be by the jockey riding the favourite, Defi Du Seuil, who is probably entitled to be shorter than the 5/2 on offer. He's unbeaten in the UK under rules and just keeps winning so easily, he looks a standout head and shoulders above the field on what we've seen so far. He's 3/3 at the course and can put his experience to good use though this will be the first time he encounters a big field. But is that really a reason to oppose him? Definitely not and he's the shortest priced horse I have backed for this year's festival, by some way too.
Selection - Defi Du Seuil 5/2 - WINNER
Foxhunters
No bet - not a race I have any interest in.
County Hurdle
Mick Jazz had very few of my shillings each way at 20/1 a few weeks ago but having looked at the race again and seen he has been shaved in eight points, I can't say he'd leap off the page now at current price. There a numerous interesting potential contenders here, most of all Peace and Co who won the Triumph here in 2015. Last season was a write off with three below par runs and he hasn't been seen for a year but off 144 and with encouraging reports from home, he could be chucked in here as he's a horse that has a proper engine. He's a keen going sort who has predominantly run on soft ground but he is certainly a horse of interest though a lot has to be taken on trust. The favourite at time of writing is Dan Skelton's North Hill Harvey who hasn't been seen since November when he won the Greatwood, the form of which has been franked left, right and centre. He has plenty of similarities to last year's winner for the same yard and you can expect him to run a big race. Arctic Fire would be another to consider despite top weight but it looks like he may not line up. This is another race to leave til the day I think and I'm happy with my little antepost on Mick for now.
EDIT - with Arctic Fire at 25/1 paying five places, he appeals despite top weight. The absence should be no problem as he'll be fine tuned for this and is the class angle of the race.
Selection - Bun Doran 33/1 each way
*Day One NAP - Arpege D'Alene 16/1 each way - placed
DAY 2
Neptune
Everything I've heard regarding Neon Wolf says he's very well fancied despite being the type to save his best for the track but there are a few contenders of interest here. Despite the Tolworth Hurdle form being pretty mundane, Finian's Oscar has answered every question put to him so far and it's hard to knock the credentials of an unbeaten horse. Bacardys is of more interest to me at 5/1 and showed a liking for the course when he wasn't beaten far in last year's Champion Bumper. He was travelling strongly when falling on his reappearance but put that right with two wins since, last time in the Grade 1 Deloitte and that form is pretty good. More needed here however and he is more exposed than the two already mentioned so I'm looking for an alternative, though he has as good a chance as any and I would rate him the main danger against my tentative selection. The horse carrying my money here is Ben Pauling's Willoughby Court at what looks an overly generous 16/1. He was beaten on hurdle debut/seasonal reappearance but has put that right twice since, last time winning a Grade 2 when heavily backed, making all. The form looks good and has been franked since; with plenty more to come he looks the standout bet though not the type of race to get too heavily involved with for me. That said, his trainer is convinced that he is in super form at home and with no ground concerns either way he looks the solid bet of the race.
Selection - Willoughby Court 16/1 each way - WINNER
RSA
I don't think I've seen a horse put up as lay of the festival more than Might Bite who remains the antepost favourite for this race at the time of writing. He was going to fizz up in the Feltham before a horrid looking fall at the last - something which can often take the horse some time to get over. He was understandably not as fluent as you may have liked next time out when his victory was a formality in a three runner race, where Ma Du Fou sadly fell and lost his life. This will be a completely different test and I do understand the negatives, especially as I am not a particular fan of his sire, Scorpion. That said, if his jumping holds up he seems to have the class to go very close. It's a wide open race and you can expect a much better performance from Alpha Des Obeaux though it is a great concern that he burst a blood vessel last time out and that's enough to put me off. He does have festival form however, finishing a clear second behind Thistlecrack in last year's World Hurdle. 2014 Coral Cup winner Whisper loves the place and has to be feared while Acapella Bourgeois' recent romp probably shouldn't be taken too literally though he is a young chaser on the up. I've had an each way play in this race at what looks an overly generous 20/1 about Our Kaempfer. He's certainly not a speedball but with a solid fifth (beaten 2L) in last year's Pertemps under his belt as well as an impressive win last time out, he's well worth his place in the field; after all he is only 4lbs lower than the favourite on official ratings. He seems pretty unfussed when it comes to ground conditions and with the horse in good form and with the prospect of more improvement to come, I fancy he is overpriced and well worth an each way bet.
Selection - Our Kaempfer 20/1 each way*
Coral Cup
Notoriously one of the hardest puzzles to solve at the festival with the last winning favourite being in 2003, the Coral Cup is a minefield of well handicapped horses to pick through. With no specific trends in terms of age groups or trainers that target the race, it's the type of race that some punters love, but ultimately it's where the bookmakers are happiest doing business. Finding a well handicapped horse in this race is easy and my pin has dropped on Bleu Et Rouge. With NRNB assurances, if he ends up going elsewhere (only other entry is County Hurdle) it's not the end of the world. Granted, he isn't the most fluent jumper in the world and would likely prefer a bit of juice in the ground but this horse is still fairly unexposed and looks leniently treated off 147. He's had horses like Tombstone, Petit Mouchoir and Belshill behind him in the past and he should enjoy a strongly run race around Prestbury Park. At 20/1 he's worth an each way stab but it really is a race to have a little each way bet in and not expect a lot back. Other contenders include Automated who has been put up by Gordon Elliot and Jack Kennedy as their dark horse, Tombstone who has been backed for this in the last few days but holds other entries and Peregrine Run who looks well treated but may possibly be kept fresh for Punchestown. The rapid-improving Kalondra and last year's Triumph winner Ivanovich Gorbatov are others to consider but it's a wide open race and I'm happy with my selection.
EDIT - Bleu Et Rouge doesn't go so I'm taking a punt on former JLT winner Taquin Du Seuil to out run his odds of 22/1. Some bookmakers are paying six places each way and on his best form he'd have a real shout. His most eyecatching run was his reappearance over hurdles in October and he's clearly been primed for a run at the festival. He is a real class angle of the race and can make his presence felt in a traditionally wide open Coral Cup.
Selection - Taquin Du Seuil 22/1 each way
Champion Chase
This is likely to be a small field and one way traffic barring a mishap. I'm not a big bettor in the W/O the favourite markets so for me it's a watching brief and hopefully Douvan can do something really special, though his likely lack of opposition may mean he won't come far out of second gear.
No bet.
Cross Country
This is a race I don't bet in, though whatever turns up in the green and gold hoops usually goes off favourite and he looks to have a few intriguing contenders this year, especially in the shape of Cause Of Causes. Cantlow is the 9/4 favourite at the time of writing and whilst I enjoy watching the race, there's nothing that stands out. That said, if you want to steal a bit of place money then there'd be worse bets than old boy Any Currency though I won't have any of my hard earned on the line.
No bet.
Fred Winter
Another race I don't get too heavily involved with but I'll probably have a few quid on whatever Paul Nicholls sends here given his impressive recent record in the race. They look likely to be Dolos and Dreamcatching by the looks of things. I'll wait til the day either way anyway.
No bet.
Champion Bumper
The Wednesday is usually a fairly quiet betting day for me as the Champion Bumper is another race I tend to leave alone. With that said, Western Ryder is a big enough price to warrant an each way bet at 10/1 for me this time around. He looks to be the best chance of a British winner and can put his experience to good use against those with less runs under their belt. He's tough, has a good turn of foot and the occasion won't faze him and just looks the solid bet of the race. It would be no shock if one of the lesser exposed rivals improved past him on the day but at the price I'm happy with a little each way play on him.
Selection - Western Ryder 10/1 each way
*Day Two NAP - Our Kaempfer 20/1 each way
DAY 3
JLT
This looks like it'll end up being a pretty small but select field and Yorkhill is the obvious answer given he has only tasted defeat once in his career under rules when feeling the effects of a long season at Punchestown last year. He is a horse with an abundance of ability and after Altior and Douvan, this lad could well be the best horse around over trips shorter than three miles. Dodging Altior wasn't unexpected but I would love to have seen this horse back over two miles where the stronger gallop would just help him settle that bit better. With that being said, the horse is a character to say the least and does have an alarming tendency to jump left and sometimes wildly at his fences. On raw ability alone though, he should be pretty hard to beat here. The opposition includes the small but mightily brave Top Notch who has won his last four but faces a stiffer task bossing this field though could be the one for the forecast as he has previous festival form on the CV. The way the Nicholls camp are talking, Politologue is the next best thing but he didn't get up the hill last year in the Coral Cup and 6/1 doesn't offer much juice each way as he'll need to improve on the bare form of two and three runner races he has been contesting of late. Disko is an improving young chaser but has never visited Cheltenham before though shouldn't be wanting for stamina as he stays further than 2m4f. He is an intriguing contender for Noel Meade and the Gigginstown second string Balko Des Flos is no mug either. For me though, the biggest disappointment for me is that Charbel is not lining up here. Connections obviously feel that 2m is his trip and they'd rather come second to Altior than being unsure whether his stamina would hold out over the extra half a mile but it surely would have been the race to find out in. From a betting perspective, despite the fact I do really rate Yorkhill and think he is the likeliest winner, his temperament and his jumping are enough to have me just watching without shelling out at 7/4. If you are on at bigger prices, well done, but I'm not and happy to just watch this one.
No bet.
Pertemps
It would be great for the remarkable Tobefair to win this for Debra Hamer and his enthusiastic bunch of owners and with form figures of 1111111 you can't really knock him. The only thing you would say is that he will have to improve again though this isn't the type of horse you would be doubting on that front. He deserves his place at the head of the market and it would be a great victory for the 'little guy.' With that being said I want to find a horse ahead of his handicap mark at a bigger price and Impulsive Star looks to have solid claims. He won a decent qualifier at Chepstow in good style and looks assured to run a big race with course form in the book though I'm going to go for something at a meatier price. Like the Coral Cup, it's a minefield and you'll do well to back the winner but For Good Measure is my fancy here. Exclusively raced at Cheltenham this season, he certainly knows his way around the place and was short headed by a stablemate on seasonal debut in a qualifier before never being put in the race next time out in November. He needed a better run to ensure he had a good chance of getting in and he delivered with a good second behind Call To Order before Christmas. He hasn't been seen since and with a protected mark of 138 and this looking the plan all along, he looks a worthy wager at 14/1 each way for a race that both trainer and owner nearly won last year with If In Doubt. He's raced on every type of ground but it may be that the better the ground the better his chance and I'm convinced he won't go off anything like the price he is now.
Selection - For Good Measure 14/1 each way
Ryanair
It's a very open and competitive looking renewal with Un De Sceaux the market leader at 3/1. He's seen to best effect over the bare minimum trip and there will be stronger stayers in the field than him. I'm aware he has run over further in France but a Festival race around Cheltenham being run at Grade 1 pace is a totally different game and there are plenty of alternatives at bigger prices that warrant consideration. I'd fancy 2015 winner Uxizandre to reverse the form for a start as he showed he was as good as ever with a fine reappearance run over an inadequate trip. That was his first start since that Ryanair success and his fine course record enhances his appeal. Bounce factor aside, he appears to have a great shout of being in the shake up with the likely reapplication of headgear another positive. If he was a couple of points bigger he'd be one of the best value each way bets of the week for me. Fox Norton is looking likelier to run here with every day that passes and he would hold place claims while Empire Of Dirt's form is strong and he has a festival win to his name so is hard to knock. Gordon Elliott hasn't been shy in letting people know he'd rather see him in the Gold Cup and it's a shame the owner is the way he is as he'd have been a very interesting contender for the big one. It's possible this will be a bit on the sharp side for him but he'll be coming up the hill better than any and can't be discounted. Overall, despite being a slightly skinnier price than I'd have liked, there's still just enough juice to warrant backing Uxizandre each way and I recommend you do the same at 6/1 before that disappears.
Selection - Uxizandre 6/1 each way
Stayers Hurdle
Cole Harden has finished in the first four on nineteen of his twenty career starts and just doesn't know how to run a bad race. He wants good ground and has had a knee issue but that's now been sorted and he posted his best effort since winning this race in 2015 on his last outing. (Popular theme building here) That run was over this course and distance but on his unpreffered soft ground, beaten less than two lengths by 11/8 favourite Unowhatimeanharry. This is his time of the year and at 9/1 he is a cracking bet each way against the favourite as he has been there and done it and will be tough to pass from the front. The better the ground, the better his chance and while the favourite has incredibly won his last eight, the price difference is way too exaggerated for me and I think these two have it between them though I would love to see Jeki go well too. I can't see Cole Harden out of the frame though; solid.
Selection - Cole Harden 9/1 each way
Brown Advisory Plate
Diamond King has an obvious chance here off what looks a manageable mark based on his Coral Cup win last year but in a race of this nature you want a big price to really get stuck in to. I have actually backed Diamond King antepost at 10/1+ but as he's now 6/1 and this is when I'm posting this blog, I'm not going to sit here and say back him at the current price. (In case the Twitter Police come and find me) This race is probably one for nearer the day in all honesty as with around 100 horses currently in the market it's a minefield of potential NR's.
No bet.
Mares Novices Hurdle
The two Irish mares at the top of the betting look like shaping the market if they both turn up but there's a horse in here for the each way thieves like myself and that horse is La Bague Au Roi. She's unbeaten over hurdles and looked good at Newbury the last day when really sticking to her task and readily asserting up the run in from a decent yardstick of Alan King's. She's not been seen since November but her trainer couldn't hold her in higher regard and better ground will only aid her cause. I think she has a big performance in her and could have the Irish mares in trouble swinging for home and like Cole Harden from the same yard, she could be tough to pass from the front.
Selection - La Bague Au Roi 7/1 each way
Kim Muir
The trickily named Squouateur was the gamble of the festival last year in the Martin Pipe but could never get into the race. This year he is probably the most obvious 'plotjob' going into the festival but off 135 he might struggle to get a run anywhere now. He is being backed for this race however, and must come under consideration if he did sneak in off bottom weight. Mall Dini has been a popular choice in the build up to the race and has been steadily supported into 8/1 favouritsm. Last year's Pertemps winner has posted a string of consistent performances this season over fences but is yet to get his head in front. He'll consequently run off 143 if he turns up and is clearly capable off a mark like that. Doctor Harper is an interesting contender and I really fancied him last year but one who has been confirmed for the race and is undoubtedly well handicapped is Southfield Royale. We all know how good the form of last year's National Hunt Chase is and he was dropped a generous 6lbs for his reappearance run which he would be expected to come on plenty for. That puts him off 141 here, a mark this young progressive chaser looks very well treated off. At 12/1, he represents super each way value and it's not out of the question to see him going off favourite on the day as he did at last year's festival.
Selection - Southfield Royale 12/1 each way*
*Day Three NAP - Southfield Royale 12/1 each way
DAY 4
Triumph
Charli Parcs was still bang there when falling two out at Kempton last month and had previously hammered Master Blueyes over the same C/D. I'm inclined to forgive that and he looks overpriced at 10/1, especially considering the horse he beat on the bridle the time before is shorter at 7/1, though the latter has clearly improved since then. With that being said, it's a poor crop this year on the face of it and it's very likely the green and gold hoops will be carried to success but I suspect it will be by the jockey riding the favourite, Defi Du Seuil, who is probably entitled to be shorter than the 5/2 on offer. He's unbeaten in the UK under rules and just keeps winning so easily, he looks a standout head and shoulders above the field on what we've seen so far. He's 3/3 at the course and can put his experience to good use though this will be the first time he encounters a big field. But is that really a reason to oppose him? Definitely not and he's the shortest priced horse I have backed for this year's festival, by some way too.
Selection - Defi Du Seuil 5/2 - WINNER
Foxhunters
No bet - not a race I have any interest in.
County Hurdle
Mick Jazz had very few of my shillings each way at 20/1 a few weeks ago but having looked at the race again and seen he has been shaved in eight points, I can't say he'd leap off the page now at current price. There a numerous interesting potential contenders here, most of all Peace and Co who won the Triumph here in 2015. Last season was a write off with three below par runs and he hasn't been seen for a year but off 144 and with encouraging reports from home, he could be chucked in here as he's a horse that has a proper engine. He's a keen going sort who has predominantly run on soft ground but he is certainly a horse of interest though a lot has to be taken on trust. The favourite at time of writing is Dan Skelton's North Hill Harvey who hasn't been seen since November when he won the Greatwood, the form of which has been franked left, right and centre. He has plenty of similarities to last year's winner for the same yard and you can expect him to run a big race. Arctic Fire would be another to consider despite top weight but it looks like he may not line up. This is another race to leave til the day I think and I'm happy with my little antepost on Mick for now.
EDIT - with Arctic Fire at 25/1 paying five places, he appeals despite top weight. The absence should be no problem as he'll be fine tuned for this and is the class angle of the race.
Selection - Arctic Fire 25/1 each way - WINNER
Albert Bartlett
This looks a better renewal than usual and the obvious place to start is Death Duty who I put up as a novice hurdler to follow at the start of the season. This is a serious horse who is 4/4 over hurdles this campaign, travels well in his races and then finds plenty for pressure when asked to go and put the race to bed, last time doing so in a Grade 1 at Naas. He'll need more again stepped up in trip on likely different ground and he is the unknown quantity in the race. West Approach has looked the type to have a big race in him and he ran a career best last time behind two leading World Hurdle contenders and on that form he has to be taken very seriously. The reopposing Wholestone had previously beaten him the three times they met, before landing a Grade 2 last time out and he looks the solid horse of the race with the track and ground holding no fears. At 13/2 you could make a case for a decent each way bet. There are interesting contenders at bigger prices too, including Monalee and The Worlds End but I'm not overly confident on anything here to risk putting my money on the line. I'd love to see Death Duty win and win well and if I was pushed I'd probably stay loyal to him with Wholestone as a good each way bet against but I'm going to leave this race for now.
No bet.
Gold Cup
An intriguing and open showcase this year, especially with the absence of Thistlecrack and you could imagine six or seven of these winning the race. The noise behind Djakadam is infectious and he obviously has the form in the book to be a serious contender while I have been coming round to Native River in recent weeks and he probably deserves to be favourite to cap off his fantastic season. Cue Card needs no introduction and he'd be the fairytale winner though he isn't getting any younger and it will have to be now or never you would imagine. Arguably the Ryanair would have suited him nicely and there's no doubt he would have had a better chance but you can't possibly argue with his owners who understandably want to have a shot at a Cheltenham Gold Cup - they may never get the chance again with any horse and good for them that they have gone for it. One horse it would have been nice to see line up is Empire Of Dirt who against his trainer's own desires has been put in the Ryanair. Hard to rule anything out in our sport though and don't be surprised to see him rerouted in the coming days! He'd have to have a proper each way chance if he lines up. I've had two antepost bets in this race though and they aren't any mentioned above. I've gone with the green and gold and dutched More of That and Minella Rocco here. I managed to get a good bit on at 50's and 40's for MOT but he still offers good each way value at 20/1 though I'd equally fancy Minella Rocco and he's a bigger price at 25/1. There's no doubt that he'll come up the hill stronger than anything else and that four miler form is as solid as it comes. The National may be the ultimate aim but he's sure to run a race if cutting out the errors. It's wide open and at current prices I'd only advise a small each way bet on them both but my heart would love to see Cue Card win it.
Selections - Minella Rocco 25/1 each way - placed and More Of That 20/1 each way
Martin Pipe
The 25/1 on offer about The Storyteller in the New Year has long since evaporated and he is the shortest priced horse in the festival handicaps at time of writing. This is probably in part down to the way his trainer has been bigging him up but also down to the good jockey booking of Donagh Meyler as well as the fact that the horse looks well handicapped off 142 and is assured a run. It's not hard to see him running well but at 4/1 he makes no appeal in a race like this to me. This is another contest to wait for the day as plenty aren't guaranteed a run but I'd be keen to back something against the fav at the prices.
No bet.
Grand Annual
This looks like being a decent renewal of the Grand Annual but one names sticks out like a sore thumb to me. Previous festival winner and former Champion Chaser Dodging Bullets isn't the force of old and I know it wasn't an amazing renewal he won but he's shown enough this year (while being minded for this race) to warrant a decent interest at 14/1. A strongly run race with a big field could suit him back over two miles these days and his run behind Altior and Fox Norton last time out was a lovely prep for this. Off 151 you'd hope he can run a big race and paying four places he's a cracking each way proposition for last year's winning stable. Anything in JP's colours must be a danger, considering his recent record in the race but I've had a coverbet on the intriguing L'Ami Serge. Not a horse to put too much trust in, especially with the way he travels before finding a limited amount for pressure, but he has to come into the reckoning. His course record reads 432 (two festival races) and this race could really be run to suit. He'd appreciate a good gallop back over the bare minimum and they've protected his chase mark over the winter with his last three runs being over hurdles with the best of those when beaten a head in the Grade 2 Reelkeel here in January. He won't mind the ground any which way and at 25/1 has to be worth of an each way punt with all of the above considered. He is a horse with bucketloads of raw ability and this could be the day he finally puts it all together - well worth an each way wager against the main selection. Last year's second, Dandridge may be the chief danger as well as anything of JP's.
Albert Bartlett
This looks a better renewal than usual and the obvious place to start is Death Duty who I put up as a novice hurdler to follow at the start of the season. This is a serious horse who is 4/4 over hurdles this campaign, travels well in his races and then finds plenty for pressure when asked to go and put the race to bed, last time doing so in a Grade 1 at Naas. He'll need more again stepped up in trip on likely different ground and he is the unknown quantity in the race. West Approach has looked the type to have a big race in him and he ran a career best last time behind two leading World Hurdle contenders and on that form he has to be taken very seriously. The reopposing Wholestone had previously beaten him the three times they met, before landing a Grade 2 last time out and he looks the solid horse of the race with the track and ground holding no fears. At 13/2 you could make a case for a decent each way bet. There are interesting contenders at bigger prices too, including Monalee and The Worlds End but I'm not overly confident on anything here to risk putting my money on the line. I'd love to see Death Duty win and win well and if I was pushed I'd probably stay loyal to him with Wholestone as a good each way bet against but I'm going to leave this race for now.
No bet.
Gold Cup
An intriguing and open showcase this year, especially with the absence of Thistlecrack and you could imagine six or seven of these winning the race. The noise behind Djakadam is infectious and he obviously has the form in the book to be a serious contender while I have been coming round to Native River in recent weeks and he probably deserves to be favourite to cap off his fantastic season. Cue Card needs no introduction and he'd be the fairytale winner though he isn't getting any younger and it will have to be now or never you would imagine. Arguably the Ryanair would have suited him nicely and there's no doubt he would have had a better chance but you can't possibly argue with his owners who understandably want to have a shot at a Cheltenham Gold Cup - they may never get the chance again with any horse and good for them that they have gone for it. One horse it would have been nice to see line up is Empire Of Dirt who against his trainer's own desires has been put in the Ryanair. Hard to rule anything out in our sport though and don't be surprised to see him rerouted in the coming days! He'd have to have a proper each way chance if he lines up. I've had two antepost bets in this race though and they aren't any mentioned above. I've gone with the green and gold and dutched More of That and Minella Rocco here. I managed to get a good bit on at 50's and 40's for MOT but he still offers good each way value at 20/1 though I'd equally fancy Minella Rocco and he's a bigger price at 25/1. There's no doubt that he'll come up the hill stronger than anything else and that four miler form is as solid as it comes. The National may be the ultimate aim but he's sure to run a race if cutting out the errors. It's wide open and at current prices I'd only advise a small each way bet on them both but my heart would love to see Cue Card win it.
Selections - Minella Rocco 25/1 each way - placed and More Of That 20/1 each way
Martin Pipe
The 25/1 on offer about The Storyteller in the New Year has long since evaporated and he is the shortest priced horse in the festival handicaps at time of writing. This is probably in part down to the way his trainer has been bigging him up but also down to the good jockey booking of Donagh Meyler as well as the fact that the horse looks well handicapped off 142 and is assured a run. It's not hard to see him running well but at 4/1 he makes no appeal in a race like this to me. This is another contest to wait for the day as plenty aren't guaranteed a run but I'd be keen to back something against the fav at the prices.
No bet.
Grand Annual
This looks like being a decent renewal of the Grand Annual but one names sticks out like a sore thumb to me. Previous festival winner and former Champion Chaser Dodging Bullets isn't the force of old and I know it wasn't an amazing renewal he won but he's shown enough this year (while being minded for this race) to warrant a decent interest at 14/1. A strongly run race with a big field could suit him back over two miles these days and his run behind Altior and Fox Norton last time out was a lovely prep for this. Off 151 you'd hope he can run a big race and paying four places he's a cracking each way proposition for last year's winning stable. Anything in JP's colours must be a danger, considering his recent record in the race but I've had a coverbet on the intriguing L'Ami Serge. Not a horse to put too much trust in, especially with the way he travels before finding a limited amount for pressure, but he has to come into the reckoning. His course record reads 432 (two festival races) and this race could really be run to suit. He'd appreciate a good gallop back over the bare minimum and they've protected his chase mark over the winter with his last three runs being over hurdles with the best of those when beaten a head in the Grade 2 Reelkeel here in January. He won't mind the ground any which way and at 25/1 has to be worth of an each way punt with all of the above considered. He is a horse with bucketloads of raw ability and this could be the day he finally puts it all together - well worth an each way wager against the main selection. Last year's second, Dandridge may be the chief danger as well as anything of JP's.
EDIT - L'Ami Serge NR (nearly nailed my County Hurdle fancy in the end!)
Selections - Dodging Bullets* 14/1 each way
Day Four NAP - Dodging Bullets 14/1 each way
Day One:
Supreme - Pingshou 50/1 ew
Ultima - The Druids Nephew 14/1 ew and Holywell 14/1 ew
Mares - Indian Stream 66/1 ew
NH Chase - Bigbadjohn 16/1 ew and Arpege D'Alene* 16/1 ew - placed
Nov Chase - Bun Doran 33/1 ew
Day Two:
Neptune - Willoughby Court 16/1 ew - WINNER
RSA - Our Kaempfer* 20/1 ew
Coral Cup - Taquin Du Seuil 22/1 ew - placed
Bumper - Western Ryder 10/1 ew
Day Three:
Pertemps - For Good Measure 14/1 ew
Ryanair - Uxizandre 6/1 ew
Stayers - Cole Harden 9/1 ew
Mares Nov - La Bague Au Roi 7/1 ew
Kim Muir - Southfield Royale* 12/1 ew
Day Four:
Triumph - Defi Du Seuil 5/2 - WINNER
County - Arctic Fire 25/1 ew - WINNER
Gold Cup - Minella Rocco 25/1 ew - placed and More Of That 20/1 ew
Grand Annual - Dodging Bullets* 14/1 ew
Each Way NAP's Yankee:
NH Chase - Arpege D'Alene 16/1 - placed
RSA - Our Kaempfer 20/1
Kim Muir - Southfield Royale 12/1
Grand Annual - Dodging Bullets 14/1
All that's left to say is thanks ever so much for taking the time to read my thoughts and any feedback on Twitter is always greatly appreciated. We are now into the latter stages of the countdown to the festival and I for one can't wait.
EDIT - Three winners over the course of the four days at 5/2, 16/1 and 25/1 and three place returns at 16/1, 22/1 and 25/1 mean we end the week in decent profit. £20 each way on all selections (£40 win on Defi Du Seuil) would have seen you return £1620 on a £800 investment for a £820 profit just playing the singles. A decent festival by most standards and already counting down til next year! Hope this preview proved useful for you, and hopefully made you a few quid in the process.
THT
Gold Cup - Minella Rocco 25/1 ew - placed and More Of That 20/1 ew
Grand Annual - Dodging Bullets* 14/1 ew
Each Way NAP's Yankee:
NH Chase - Arpege D'Alene 16/1 - placed
RSA - Our Kaempfer 20/1
Kim Muir - Southfield Royale 12/1
Grand Annual - Dodging Bullets 14/1
All that's left to say is thanks ever so much for taking the time to read my thoughts and any feedback on Twitter is always greatly appreciated. We are now into the latter stages of the countdown to the festival and I for one can't wait.
EDIT - Three winners over the course of the four days at 5/2, 16/1 and 25/1 and three place returns at 16/1, 22/1 and 25/1 mean we end the week in decent profit. £20 each way on all selections (£40 win on Defi Du Seuil) would have seen you return £1620 on a £800 investment for a £820 profit just playing the singles. A decent festival by most standards and already counting down til next year! Hope this preview proved useful for you, and hopefully made you a few quid in the process.
THT
