Fifteen Flat Horses to Follow 2017

The jumps horses to follow thankfully proved pretty successful with an impressive 39% strike rate though we didn't hit too many big priced winners despite plenty of near misses. That said we still achieved a LSP of +15.23pts which is respectable enough. Still just over a week left of the season but as of 17th April the stats below are correct.

12 individual horses
44 individual runs
17 winners (39% SR)
26 placed (59% SR)

LSP: +15.23pts

As you can see, it was another successful season over jumps though I'm always looking to improve on the final points total so I'll be making one or two slight tweaks this time around to try and push us towards the 50pt mark which will be an ambitious but hopefully realistic target as the season progresses. In recent seasons I've been concentrating too much on what I perceived to be horses with plenty of ability, rather than well handicapped horses so don't be suprised to see a few extra wildcards thrown in that you'll be unlikely to find on any other 'horses to follow' list this time around.

AL HAMDANY - 3yo colt by Kodiac/Easy Times trained by Marco Botti - 41212

Despite a very exploitable mark of 97, connections seem keen to waste no time letting Al Hamdany run around for handicap prize money. He holds entries in the Listed Fielden Stakes tomorrow and I'm looking forward to seeing how he gets on. His penultimate run was impressive when well backed and winning comfortably. The form has since been boosted as the second has since come out and bolted up in a maiden and the fifth placed horse also won next time out. He was then stepped up into Listed company and was agonisingly beaten a head after being hampered close home by D'bai who then ran in Group 1 company on his next start, though never got into the race. The form has substance though as the third placed horse has since impressively scored in a conditions race and the forth also won next time out. He may be seen over further and he is a colt with plenty more to give this season.


APRES MIDI - 4yo filly by Galileo/Rose Bonheur trained by Karl Burke - 3221

This filly broke her maiden tag in good style at the forth time of asking after three previous solid runs in defeat. Beautifully bred and now another year wiser, this filly could really progress through the handicap ranks this season starting off on a mark of 81. Several winners have come out of her maiden runs and she looks strikingly well handicapped. I'll be surprised if she doesn't have some black type under her belt before the season is out.


BELLE DIVA* - 3yo filly by Dark Angel/Red Intrigue trained by Ralph Beckett - 61

Despite being a tall but light and weak 2yo, this Dark Angel filly was good enough to get off the mark at her second attempt in September before quickly being put away for the winter. The second, third and forth were dual subsequent winner Hersigh, (80) next time out winner Castellated (73) and next time out winner Choumicha. (83) This makes this filly look extremely well handicapped of 77 with the promise of much more to come this season especially as she was so far from the finished article when winning her maiden. She has a very good pedigree and she could definitely progress to pick up some black type this year. Should be well ahead of her mark and is the type her trainer really excels with. A must follow for me this season.


COSTA PERCY - 3yo gelding by Sir Percy/Costa Brava trained by Karl Burke - 8750

Certainly not an obvious one but he has caught the eye on more than one occasion when running in maiden company and is open to improvement as he steps up in trip and runs on the turf. His first run in handicap company when never involved (dropped 3lbs) should have him spot on to now start putting his best foot forward and he should be more than capable off of a lowly mark of 62. Could be one to rack up a bit of a sequence once he breaks his duck and likely to be a decent price when next seen - worth keeping an eye out for.


DANIELSFLYER - 3yo colt by Dandy Man/Warm Welcome trained by David Barron - 2120

This well thought of sprinter was heavily backed on debut and despite stumbling and running a little green he ran a nice race, ridden to lead 1f out and shaping well before just finding one too strong in the closing stages. The winner hasn't been seen since but he offered plenty of debut promise of which he duly followed up on next time out in an Ayr maiden with minimal fuss, beating plenty of subsequent winners. He was then chucked in the deep end on his third start when contesting the Woodcote Stakes at the Derby meeting, agonisingly going down by a nostril to Legendary Lunch (now rated 105) despite having fought his way to the front inside the final furlong. It was a great effort from this son of Dandy Man on just his third career start and he was very well fancied for the Goffs Premier Yearling Stakes at York next time out. However, things didn't go to plan for him as he missed the break, stumbled very badly during the race and could never get into contention. The very quick ground may have also played a part but he came in lame after the race and that run is best totally forgiven. He is the type to make up into a very useful 3yo and a mark of 93 gives connections options though it is possible that he'll need his first run back.


ENTANGLING - 3yo gelding by Fastnet Rock/Question Times trained by Chris Wall - 639

This horse has caught the eye on all three outings to date, shaping like a horse with much more raw ability than he has currently been able to fully show on the racecourse. He has clearly been brought along with handicaps in mind and has shown that he is well up to winning races. On his first outing behind Surrey Hope he was detached in rear early before keeping on most encouragingly under hands and heels throughout the final two furlongs. He shaped like an improver and duly stepped up next time behind Sabador when travelling powerfully in mid-division with nowhere to go until too late, at which point he was merely pushed out to grab third. With one more run needed for a mark, he was given a very interesting ride to say the least, held up in rear, racing very wide throughout before being nudged along and just keeping on at the one pace once the race was already all over. Expect plenty of improvement next time out and off a mark of 69 from a shrewd yard, he should progress through the handicap ranks as the season wears on.


HORSEPLAY - 3yo filly by Cape Cross/Mischief Maker trained by Andrew Balding - 41

There is no reason why this filly can't progress into a credible Oaks contender (40/1) this season for Andrew Balding and Cliveden Stud. She ran a nice enough race on her first start in an Ascot maiden but typically of her trainer, it wasn't until her second start where we saw a different horse and she was one of the most impressive maiden winners I can recall from last season when proving a different league to her opposition over a mile at Nottingham in soft ground. She mightn't have beaten much, but the manner she pulled away was memorable and the further they went the better she looked. She took a good bit of pulling up after the race too which is always a good sign and there's no doubt that this exciting filly should stay a mile and a half. One of the more talented horses on this list, no doubt.


INSTIGATION* - 3yo filly by Bated Breath/Rainbow's Edge trained by Ed Dunlop - 059

A Newmarket maiden was the first time we saw this Bated Breath filly on the racecourse and she ran like her price suggested, finishing out the back but far from disgraced only being beaten seven lengths. She showed the benefit of that experience, aswell as a switch of surface and step up in trip when running an extremely pleasing and eyecatching fifth over 7f at Kempton. She took a little while to find her stride but kept on stoutly inside the final furlong, really picking up quite well into a never nearer fifth behind some really nice types including Belle Diva mentioned above as well as the three others mentioned now rated 73, 80 and 83. This effort was followed by her final run to get a mark when nonsensically dropped back to 6f and was slowly away and always outpaced thereafter. This got her qualified for handicaps of which she will start life off 64, which I strongly suspect grossly underestimates her ability, especially as she is stepped up in trip. Could be ready to strike at the first time of asking for her trainer who knows the time of day but one to follow thereafter whatever happens on her reappearance. Probably the best handicapped horse on this list so I make her a must follow.


LUGANO - 4yo colt by Galileo/Swiss Lake trained by Sir Mark Prescott - 9471

For 1m4f and 97 yards of this colt's handicap debut over 1m4f and 98 yards, defeat looked certain. When the pace lifted round the Newcastle home turn he completely lost his position and looked woefully one paced as they came down the straight, shuffled back in the pack with seemingly no response despite being hard ridden. With an awkward looking head carriage and a tendency to lug left handed apparent, he looked one to avoid. About 100 yards out however, his stamina kicked in and something clicked in his mind that it was time to run on. And run on he did, somehow getting up in the final stride for a most unlikely victory. I urge you to watch a replay of it, quite remarkable. He was too green/slow in his maidens to show his true worth and in typical fashion of his trainer, a step up in trip did the trick on his first venture into handicap company. Despite winning, he still appeared to be a big raw backward type and interestingly we haven't seen him since this victory which suggests as much but this means he has been given time to mature over the Winter. A 9lbs rise for that success takes him to a revised rating of 69, which given the manner of this victory and the promise of a switch to turf and a step up in trip to bring about plenty more improvement, this is definitely a horse to keep on the right side of this season. Very well handicapped and bucketloads to come - a big staying handicap later in the season could well be on the agenda if he makes the likely progress anticipated.

MACH ONE - 3yo colt by Makfi/Perfect Spirit trained by Clive Cox - 457

Despite his relatively uninspiring form figures, this horse is one I am very much looking forward to seeing now qualified for handicaps. On debut he looked totally clueless and was badly outpaced but did come home quite nicely over a mile at Salisbury, albeit a long way behind the leaders. That said, everything he ran against that day has since won and the winner Salouen subsequently placed in Group 1 company. Next time out he ran in what looks an even stronger maiden, coming home in fifth behind credible Derby candidate Monarch's Glen, the exciting Frankel colt Count Octave as well as a promising type of Ralph Beckett's who also features on this list later on. He showed up well for a long way though and it was a nice improvement from his debut where he appeared a lot more professional, though still some way off the finished article. His final run in maiden company was in another deep contest, this time at Nottingham when sent to the front and showing up well before gradually weakening into seventh, beaten about eight lengths. On the back of his maiden efforts, the handicapper allotted him a mark of 65 which I think is very exploitable indeed. Bearing in mind that it is likely that he will have been brought along with handicaps in mind, I think he rates as a very appealing proposition to follow through the handicap ranks this season as he progresses with his racing.


REALLY SUPER - 3yo filly by Cacique/Sensationally trained by Ralph Beckett - 4

This filly probably went into a couple of notebooks after her very pleasing debut run when staying on eyecatchingly well over 9f at Goodwood last September. Despite showing signs of inexperience and being well back in the field, Really Super picked up very well inside the final couple of furlongs, making relentless progress and going on at the finish. The form looks good too with the winner Monarch's Glen looking like a smart prospect after making a mockery of his opening handicap mark of 87, while the third Count Octave has since won a maiden too. Her pedigree and her debut run suggest she will come into her own over middle distances and she can win a maiden on her reappearance before going on to better things.


RICHIE MCCAW - 4yo gelding by Zamindar/Cochin trained by Ian Williams - 51344

I doubt this horse will have made any horses to follow list this season whatsoever; after all what's the appeal of a 77 rated gelding by Zamindar? That said he was well thought of in his early days with Mark Johnston and won a Chelmsford maiden in decisive fashion beaten a couple of horses now rated in the 80's. After that victory, he could never stay sound and his problems meant he was off the track for nearly a year, in that time being switched to his current trainer. He reappeared with a decent though well beaten third in a 10f handicap at Doncaster before a much improved run over the same distance at Sandown, outpaced before staying on well inside the final furlong to finish a never nearer 4th beaten a length. A step up in trip looked likely next time out but he was kept to 10f when sent off joint favourite, keeping on at the one pace for forth behind some useful types. (rated 88-90) There should be a bit of improvement to come on that basis, especially for one so lightly raced. With the horse having reportedly come back in a much bigger and stronger individual and having got over his niggly problems, he rates as one to keep an eye out for this summer, especially if stepped up in trip which I think could suit. In the care of one of the shrewdest trainers around, this horse is certainly in the right hands to live up to his early promise and any market support would likely be significant on reappearance.


SABADOR* - 3yo gelding by Kendargent/Sabadora trained by Ed Walker - 41

Ed Walker usually leaves his debutants with plenty to work on and this French bred gelding was no different, showing the benefit of his first run at two and a gelding operation when winning in quite taking style in a Kempton maiden on his first 3yo start last month. Despite taking a very keen hold early on, he settled down at halfway before making his move inside the final two furlongs when picking up nicely, quickening and extending throughout the final furlong to win in decisive fashion, going away. He clearly had plenty left in the tank as his rider almost completed another circuit before he could pull him up to return to the winners enclosure. The form has yet to really be tested but has since stood up a bit with the forth placed horse winning on handicap debut next time out and the fifth coming close to doing the same and I really feel Sabador has been let in lightly off 78. The manner of his victory suggests he has plenty more to give and a step up in trip is very likely to bring about further improvement provided he settles a little better. To run as keen as he did early on and then quicken as he did for pressure suggests his mark is very lenient and he is must follow as he climbs through the handicap rankings.


SCUZEME - 3yo gelding by Kheleyf/Barbieri trained by David Barron - 5812

This horse had been showing plenty at home before making his 2yo debut and was well supported into odds on to make a winning start to his racing career. However, he finished tailed off last and it was a similar story next time when the same happened to an even greater extent. He was put away, seemingly too weak and backward to show his true ability on the racecourse. With a holiday under his belt, a gelding operation performed and some physical and mental maturion completed, he returned a totally different proposition when heavily backed and bolting up in a Newcastle maiden. He tanked his way through the race before cruising through and putting the race to bed in a matter of strides when asked to quicken. It was a taking performance and he was allotted a mark of 80 to start his career in handicaps. After three months off the track he reappeared at Nottingham last week, opening at around 2/1 when the markets first went up. By post time he was on offer at an amazing 9/1 - quite the drift and it told, as he was held up in rear and left with plenty to do, never looking like getting to the winner. He still beat the other twelve home and stayed on encouragingly all the way to the line. The betting pre-race and the way he shaped during it suggests he'll really come on for that run and is definitely one to watch out for next time out. Unexposed and plenty of juice in his mark, he's definitely one to add to your tracker for the coming season.

SURREY HOPE - 3yo colt by Lemon Drop Kid/She Be Classy trained by Joseph Tuite - 61

This American bred colt was a 66/1 poke on debut in a Newbury maiden last October when shaping with huge promise, held up in rear, green when first asked for an effort but with the penny dropping late on and him seeing his race out nicely for a never nearer sixth behind a few with previous experience. He was then put away before reappearing with a decisive victory switched to the all-weather at Kempton for his second start over a mile. Keen early but soon settled in nicely behind the leaders, travelling powerfully turning in before being shaken up and sprinting clear inside the final furlong. Visually impressive and well regarded by his trainer, he appeals as a horse with plenty more to come and a mark of 81 could have him let in lightly. He is being aimed at a handicap on Craven day at Newmarket and is likely to give a bold showing. Worth a follow but I have a niggling concern that he may need artificial surfaces to be seen to best effect.


The List:

Al Hamdany - 650752
Apres Midi - 336817
*Belle Diva - 0
Costa Percy - 11231
Danielsflyer - 10085
Entangling - 21
Horseplay - 144
*Instigation -
Lugano - 11135
Mach One - 053
Really Super - 4344232
Richie McCaw - 55
*Sabador - 210
Scuzeme - 67
Surrey Hope - 131

* = Must Follow


Form: 636401125370403111115041681043450328317527231515523213


Winners:

Danielsflyer 25/1
Horseplay 11/2
Sabador 9/4
Costa Percy 8/1
Surrey Hope 8/1
Lugano 2/1
Lugano 1/1
Lugano 4/11
Costa Percy 5/1
Apres Midi 4/1
Costa Percy 7/2
Entangling 4/5
Surrey Hope 11/4

LSP: +20.16pts

Cheltenham Festival 2017

With the festival rapidly descending on us, I've scribbled down my race-by-race thoughts below. Slightly different format to recent years but it's quick, clean and easy to access and read and hopefully you'll find it useful or at least interesting and thought provoking. This page will be updated every day up until the Monday night before the festival kicks off and I'm looking forward to hearing your feedback on Twitter @THTRacing.

DAY 1

Supreme

We've already put up with truckloads of hype, some dodgy headlines and a hilarious UK mark of 153 for Melon but with the yard's recent record in the race and the infectious confidence seemingly behind him, he's clearly expected to go pretty close. 4/1 is the type of price that you have the feeling could look very generous in ten days time and I'm sure he'll go off nearer to 2/1 fav. That being said, he's only won a weak maiden hurdle and his lack of experience could mean the hype is worth taking on with a bit of form. Battle-hardened champion bumper winner Ballyandy is one to consider if lining up though putting your hard earned on Moonracer is taking an awful lot on trust for a yard that have had a desperate season by their standards. Bunk Off Early is an intriguing contender as the apparent second string for Willie Mullins while you could see River Wylde finishing in the money as he is unbeaten over hurdles, though he was beaten out of sight on his sole course start in a bumper - enough to put me off. Pingshou is probably a bigger price than he should be as this is his confirmed target and he beat a couple of nice horses over C/D before Christmas. He had every chance coming to the last in a Listed race next time out over 2m4f but just got tired up the straight. The drop back in trip will suit so 50/1 looks generous though you'd fancy at least one or two to be too good either way. Movewiththetimes is the tentative selection here for Paul Nicholls whose squad seems a little underestimated this time around. With many well handicapped horses in his midst and the odd nice novice, I could see him equalling or pushing past last year's total of three winners over the four days. This lad has shown a record of steady improvement and I really like the look of some of his form. He looked the winner of the Betfair Hurdle before just being outjumped at the last but he should have improved from that and will really appreciate the better ground that is forecast. The two times he has been beaten, the ground was soft and this progressive young novice has to be an each way bet at the 9/1 still on offer at the time of writing. Not one to be overly confident in a trappy Supreme, but he should have the class to be in the shake up in the closing stages.

EDIT - With Movewiththetimes now being a NR as well as Moonracer heading for the Champion Hurdle, I'm going to advise a small each way punt on Pingshou who remains at 50/1 despite the two notable absentees. Ballyandy is probably the one to beat now but in a trappy Supreme that looks like it could throw up a big price, it may be Pingshou that outruns his odds.

Selection - Pingshou 50/1 each way

Arkle

I'm fully convinced that Altior is the best horse in training and despite connections opting not to provide a blockbuster clash with Douvan in the QMCC, he will likely have no problem seeing off what looks like being a fairly depleted field against him. Charbel is a horse I do like and is probably one for the forecast despite the fact I would have loved to have seen him in the JLT but if Altior gets round I can't see anything getting close and a winning distance bet may be the only thing to considerb at an inflated price, if that's your thing.

No bet.

Ultima

This looks like being the best renewal of this race in living memory with a host of big named handicappers set to do battle. Last year's 1-2-3 all look likely to line up again and Holywell off 5lbs lower looks the most appealing to me and I have him backed. With no other obvious targets this season, this looks like being the race they'll have him primed for and he is dangerously well treated considering some of his course form. He is taken to be in the money. Un Temps Pour Tout is entitled to run well again though connections of The Young Master wouldn't want to leave his season behind here with The Grand National just around the corner. In such a competitive race you can't be afraid to throw a couple of darts and that's just what I've done here as off the same mark as when winning this two years ago I can't let The Druids Nephew go unbacked. With positive reports from his trainer in the press and no doubts about his stamina I'm happy to take some 14/1 before it dries up. Some of the Irish contingent look interesting but I fancy one of the English to take it this year and with a bit of luck it will be one of the two selections.

Selections - The Druids Nephew 14/1 each way and Holywell 14/1 each way

Champion Hurdle

JP McManus looks to have one hand on the trophy already with both Yanworth and Buveur D'Air sporting his colours here though it is a very open renewal. With no superstar lining up and holes to be picked in many of the runners, it's there for the taking and a young progressive horse like Brain Power could well be the type of horse that could step up to the plate. His win in the Grade 3 at Ascot was visually impressive and he comes here a fresh horse though I'd want a bit more each way juice to warrant parting with my hard earned. At this stage I haven't backed any of them but if you held a gun to my head then I'd opt for the Henderson second string to step up and be in the first three.

No bet.

Mares Hurdle

There is little doubt that Limini is probably the one to beat here though Apples Jade will certainly throw down a strong challenge with her liking for the track displayed when a close second in last year's triumph. With Vroum Vroum Mag expected to take up her chance in the Champion Hurdle this leaves a very open market excluding the top two and there is an each way opportunity to be had. Plenty in the betting probably won't run but one that looks likely to is Indian Stream. She hasn't been seen since getting the better of Theatre Guide at Wetherby who has since franked the form but her record fresh is a perfect two from two. She is a tremendously consistent mare having finished in the first three on fifteen of her eighteen career starts and with the possibility of plenty more improvement to come I fancy she is wildly overpriced at 66/1. While she would be better suited by fences (rated 10lbs higher over larger obstacles) she showed a liking for the place when trouncing up in a listed mares chase on her only course start and with the front two being very short I'll take a punt on her to outrun her odds.

Selection - Indian Stream 66/1 each way

National Hunt Chase

Bigbadjohn catches the eye in this race as he looks like he'll really benefit from a step up in trip. A progressive young horse with staying potential and some smart form to his name, he ticks plenty of boxes and 16/1 is worth a wager each way. He has yet to face the Cheltenham hill however and showed a tendency to jump left at Ascot, though that shouldn't be a probelm here going left handed. He'll certainly give whoever rides him a good spin round but I'm going double handed again here by also taking some 16/1 about Arpege D'Alene for the Champion trainer. The way he powered clear at Aintree earlier in the season was memorable and he has been outpaced before rallying well on his last two starts, most recently behind the other selection Bigbadjohn. I really feel moving up in trip and the bigger field will see considerable improvement from this grey who holds that precious bit of course form having come a close second in last year's Pertemps. He's taken to reverse the form with John under these different conditions and would be one of my stronger selections over the four days -  I can't see him being out of the frame.

Selections - Bigbadjohn 16/1 each way and Arpege D'Alene* 16/1 each way - placed

Close Brothers Novices Handicap Chase

The final race on day one sees a fiendishly difficult handicap to sort out and it's hard to be overly confident with anything. Foxtail Hill ran a super trial for this when winning impressively over C/D from some decent horses in the Grade 3 Barbados Trophy and he's been understandably well supported since that success for local connections. I've gone with Romain De Senam though, who very nearly won the Fred Winter at last year's meeting and that precious festival form always instills confidence especially when it looks as if one has been targeted for a race all season as this lad looks to have been. The step up in trip and return to Cheltenham promises to suit this unexposed chaser and 10/1 is a big enough price for me to have a go. One that's way down the list for most but who is guaranteed a run is Tom George's in and out novice, Bun Doran. His trainer believes he will improve for some better underfoot conditions and he has always been well thought of at home. If he can put it all together on the day then this strong traveller could well outrun his odds of 33/1 and he's worth a small wager against the main selection.

EDIT - Romain De Senam missed the cut by one, which is pretty gutting. I'll stick with our longshot as the only selection for this race now.

Selection - Bun Doran 33/1 each way

*Day One NAP - Arpege D'Alene 16/1 each way - placed


DAY 2

Neptune

Everything I've heard regarding Neon Wolf says he's very well fancied despite being the type to save his best for the track but there are a few contenders of interest here. Despite the Tolworth Hurdle form being pretty mundane, Finian's Oscar has answered every question put to him so far and it's hard to knock the credentials of an unbeaten horse. Bacardys is of more interest to me at 5/1 and showed a liking for the course when he wasn't beaten far in last year's Champion Bumper. He was travelling strongly when falling on his reappearance but put that right with two wins since, last time in the Grade 1 Deloitte and that form is pretty good. More needed here however and he is more exposed than the two already mentioned so I'm looking for an alternative, though he has as good a chance as any and I would rate him the main danger against my tentative selection. The horse carrying my money here is Ben Pauling's Willoughby Court at what looks an overly generous 16/1. He was beaten on hurdle debut/seasonal reappearance but has put that right twice since, last time winning a Grade 2 when heavily backed, making all. The form looks good and has been franked since; with plenty more to come he looks the standout bet though not the type of race to get too heavily involved with for me. That said, his trainer is convinced that he is in super form at home and with no ground concerns either way he looks the solid bet of the race.

Selection - Willoughby Court 16/1 each way - WINNER

RSA

I don't think I've seen a horse put up as lay of the festival more than Might Bite who remains the antepost favourite for this race at the time of writing. He was going to fizz up in the Feltham before a horrid looking fall at the last - something which can often take the horse some time to get over. He was understandably not as fluent as you may have liked next time out when his victory was a formality in a three runner race, where Ma Du Fou sadly fell and lost his life. This will be a completely different test and I do understand the negatives, especially as I am not a particular fan of his sire, Scorpion. That said, if his jumping holds up he seems to have the class to go very close. It's a wide open race and you can expect a much better performance from Alpha Des Obeaux though it is a great concern that he burst a blood vessel last time out and that's enough to put me off. He does have festival form however, finishing a clear second behind Thistlecrack in last year's World Hurdle. 2014 Coral Cup winner Whisper loves the place and has to be feared while Acapella Bourgeois' recent romp probably shouldn't be taken too literally though he is a young chaser on the up. I've had an each way play in this race at what looks an overly generous 20/1 about Our Kaempfer. He's certainly not a speedball but with a solid fifth (beaten 2L) in last year's Pertemps under his belt as well as an impressive win last time out, he's well worth his place in the field; after all he is only 4lbs lower than the favourite on official ratings. He seems pretty unfussed when it comes to ground conditions and with the horse in good form and with the prospect of more improvement to come, I fancy he is overpriced and well worth an each way bet.

Selection - Our Kaempfer 20/1 each way*

Coral Cup

Notoriously one of the hardest puzzles to solve at the festival with the last winning favourite being in 2003, the Coral Cup is a minefield of well handicapped horses to pick through. With no specific trends in terms of age groups or trainers that target the race, it's the type of race that some punters love, but ultimately it's where the bookmakers are happiest doing business. Finding a well handicapped horse in this race is easy and my pin has dropped on Bleu Et Rouge. With NRNB assurances, if he ends up going elsewhere (only other entry is County Hurdle) it's not the end of the world. Granted, he isn't the most fluent jumper in the world and would likely prefer a bit of juice in the ground but this horse is still fairly unexposed and looks leniently treated off 147. He's had horses like Tombstone, Petit Mouchoir and Belshill behind him in the past and he should enjoy a strongly run race around Prestbury Park. At 20/1 he's worth an each way stab but it really is a race to have a little each way bet in and not expect a lot back. Other contenders include Automated who has been put up by Gordon Elliot and Jack Kennedy as their dark horse, Tombstone who has been backed for this in the last few days but holds other entries and Peregrine Run who looks well treated but may possibly be kept fresh for Punchestown. The rapid-improving Kalondra and last year's Triumph winner Ivanovich Gorbatov are others to consider but it's a wide open race and I'm happy with my selection.

EDIT - Bleu Et Rouge doesn't go so I'm taking a punt on former JLT winner Taquin Du Seuil to out run his odds of 22/1. Some bookmakers are paying six places each way and on his best form he'd have a real shout. His most eyecatching run was his reappearance over hurdles in October and he's clearly been primed for a run at the festival. He is a real class angle of the race and can make his presence felt in a traditionally wide open Coral Cup.

Selection - Taquin Du Seuil 22/1 each way

Champion Chase

This is likely to be a small field and one way traffic barring a mishap. I'm not a big bettor in the W/O the favourite markets so for me it's a watching brief and hopefully Douvan can do something really special, though his likely lack of opposition may mean he won't come far out of second gear.

No bet.

Cross Country

This is a race I don't bet in, though whatever turns up in the green and gold hoops usually goes off favourite and he looks to have a few intriguing contenders this year, especially in the shape of Cause Of Causes. Cantlow is the 9/4 favourite at the time of writing and whilst I enjoy watching the race, there's nothing that stands out. That said, if you want to steal a bit of place money then there'd be worse bets than old boy Any Currency though I won't have any of my hard earned on the line.

No bet.

Fred Winter

Another race I don't get too heavily involved with but I'll probably have a few quid on whatever Paul Nicholls sends here given his impressive recent record in the race. They look likely to be Dolos and Dreamcatching by the looks of things. I'll wait til the day either way anyway.

No bet.

Champion Bumper

The Wednesday is usually a fairly quiet betting day for me as the Champion Bumper is another race I tend to leave alone. With that said, Western Ryder is a big enough price to warrant an each way bet at 10/1 for me this time around. He looks to be the best chance of a British winner and can put his experience to good use against those with less runs under their belt. He's tough, has a good turn of foot and the occasion won't faze him and just looks the solid bet of the race. It would be no shock if one of the lesser exposed rivals improved past him on the day but at the price I'm happy with a little each way play on him.

Selection - Western Ryder 10/1 each way

*Day Two NAP - Our Kaempfer 20/1 each way


DAY 3

JLT

This looks like it'll end up being a pretty small but select field and Yorkhill is the obvious answer given he has only tasted defeat once in his career under rules when feeling the effects of a long season at Punchestown last year. He is a horse with an abundance of ability and after Altior and Douvan, this lad could well be the best horse around over trips shorter than three miles. Dodging Altior wasn't unexpected but I would love to have seen this horse back over two miles where the stronger gallop would just help him settle that bit better. With that being said, the horse is a character to say the least and does have an alarming tendency to jump left and sometimes wildly at his fences. On raw ability alone though, he should be pretty hard to beat here. The opposition includes the small but mightily brave Top Notch who has won his last four but faces a stiffer task bossing this field though could be the one for the forecast as he has previous festival form on the CV. The way the Nicholls camp are talking, Politologue is the next best thing but he didn't get up the hill last year in the Coral Cup and 6/1 doesn't offer much juice each way as he'll need to improve on the bare form of two and three runner races he has been contesting of late. Disko is an improving young chaser but has never visited Cheltenham before though shouldn't be wanting for stamina as he stays further than 2m4f. He is an intriguing contender for Noel Meade and the Gigginstown second string Balko Des Flos is no mug either. For me though, the biggest disappointment for me is that Charbel is not lining up here. Connections obviously feel that 2m is his trip and they'd rather come second to Altior than being unsure whether his stamina would hold out over the extra half a mile but it surely would have been the race to find out in. From a betting perspective, despite the fact I do really rate Yorkhill and think he is the likeliest winner, his temperament and his jumping are enough to have me just watching without shelling out at 7/4. If you are on at bigger prices, well done, but I'm not and happy to just watch this one.

No bet.

Pertemps

It would be great for the remarkable Tobefair to win this for Debra Hamer and his enthusiastic bunch of owners and with form figures of 1111111 you can't really knock him. The only thing you would say is that he will have to improve again though this isn't the type of horse you would be doubting on that front. He deserves his place at the head of the market and it would be a great victory for the 'little guy.' With that being said I want to find a horse ahead of his handicap mark at a bigger price and Impulsive Star looks to have solid claims. He won a decent qualifier at Chepstow in good style and looks assured to run a big race with course form in the book though I'm going to go for something at a meatier price. Like the Coral Cup, it's a minefield and you'll do well to back the winner but For Good Measure is my fancy here. Exclusively raced at Cheltenham this season, he certainly knows his way around the place and was short headed by a stablemate on seasonal debut in a qualifier before never being put in the race next time out in November. He needed a better run to ensure he had a good chance of getting in and he delivered with a good second behind Call To Order before Christmas. He hasn't been seen since and with a protected mark of 138 and this looking the plan all along, he looks a worthy wager at 14/1 each way for a race that both trainer and owner nearly won last year with If In Doubt. He's raced on every type of ground but it may be that the better the ground the better his chance and I'm convinced he won't go off anything like the price he is now.

Selection - For Good Measure 14/1 each way

Ryanair

It's a very open and competitive looking renewal with Un De Sceaux the market leader at 3/1. He's seen to best effect over the bare minimum trip and there will be stronger stayers in the field than him. I'm aware he has run over further in France but a Festival race around Cheltenham being run at Grade 1 pace is a totally different game and there are plenty of alternatives at bigger prices that warrant consideration. I'd fancy 2015 winner Uxizandre to reverse the form for a start as he showed he was as good as ever with a fine reappearance run over an inadequate trip. That was his first start since that Ryanair success and his fine course record enhances his appeal. Bounce factor aside, he appears to have a great shout of being in the shake up with the likely reapplication of headgear another positive. If he was a couple of points bigger he'd be one of the best value each way bets of the week for me. Fox Norton is looking likelier to run here with every day that passes and he would hold place claims while Empire Of Dirt's form is strong and he has a festival win to his name so is hard to knock. Gordon Elliott hasn't been shy in letting people know he'd rather see him in the Gold Cup and it's a shame the owner is the way he is as he'd have been a very interesting contender for the big one. It's possible this will be a bit on the sharp side for him but he'll be coming up the hill better than any and can't be discounted. Overall, despite being a slightly skinnier price than I'd have liked, there's still just enough juice to warrant backing Uxizandre each way and I recommend you do the same at 6/1 before that disappears.

Selection - Uxizandre 6/1 each way

Stayers Hurdle

Cole Harden has finished in the first four on nineteen of his twenty career starts and just doesn't know how to run a bad race. He wants good ground and has had a knee issue but that's now been sorted and he posted his best effort since winning this race in 2015 on his last outing. (Popular theme building here) That run was over this course and distance but on his unpreffered soft ground, beaten less than two lengths by 11/8 favourite Unowhatimeanharry. This is his time of the year and at 9/1 he is a cracking bet each way against the favourite as he has been there and done it and will be tough to pass from the front. The better the ground, the better his chance and while the favourite has incredibly won his last eight, the price difference is way too exaggerated for me and I think these two have it between them though I would love to see Jeki go well too. I can't see Cole Harden out of the frame though; solid.

Selection - Cole Harden 9/1 each way

Brown Advisory Plate

Diamond King has an obvious chance here off what looks a manageable mark based on his Coral Cup win last year but in a race of this nature you want a big price to really get stuck in to. I have actually backed Diamond King antepost at 10/1+ but as he's now 6/1 and this is when I'm posting this blog, I'm not going to sit here and say back him at the current price. (In case the Twitter Police come and find me) This race is probably one for nearer the day in all honesty as with around 100 horses currently in the market it's a minefield of potential NR's.

No bet.

Mares Novices Hurdle

The two Irish mares at the top of the betting look like shaping the market if they both turn up but there's a horse in here for the each way thieves like myself and that horse is La Bague Au Roi. She's unbeaten over hurdles and looked good at Newbury the last day when really sticking to her task and readily asserting up the run in from a decent yardstick of Alan King's. She's not been seen since November but her trainer couldn't hold her in higher regard and better ground will only aid her cause. I think she has a big performance in her and could have the Irish mares in trouble swinging for home and like Cole Harden from the same yard, she could be tough to pass from the front.

Selection - La Bague Au Roi 7/1 each way

Kim Muir

The trickily named Squouateur was the gamble of the festival last year in the Martin Pipe but could never get into the race. This year he is probably the most obvious 'plotjob' going into the festival but off 135 he might struggle to get a run anywhere now. He is being backed for this race however, and must come under consideration if he did sneak in off bottom weight. Mall Dini has been a popular choice in the build up to the race and has been steadily supported into 8/1 favouritsm. Last year's Pertemps winner has posted a string of consistent performances this season over fences but is yet to get his head in front. He'll consequently run off 143 if he turns up and is clearly capable off a mark like that. Doctor Harper is an interesting contender and I really fancied him last year but one who has been confirmed for the race and is undoubtedly well handicapped is Southfield Royale. We all know how good the form of last year's National Hunt Chase is and he was dropped a generous 6lbs for his reappearance run which he would be expected to come on plenty for. That puts him off 141 here, a mark this young progressive chaser looks very well treated off. At 12/1, he represents super each way value and it's not out of the question to see him going off favourite on the day as he did at last year's festival.

Selection - Southfield Royale 12/1 each way*

*Day Three NAP - Southfield Royale 12/1 each way



DAY 4

Triumph

Charli Parcs was still bang there when falling two out at Kempton last month and had previously hammered Master Blueyes over the same C/D. I'm inclined to forgive that and he looks overpriced at 10/1, especially considering the horse he beat on the bridle the time before is shorter at 7/1, though the latter has clearly improved since then. With that being said, it's a poor crop this year on the face of it and it's very likely the green and gold hoops will be carried to success but I suspect it will be by the jockey riding the favourite, Defi Du Seuil, who is probably entitled to be shorter than the 5/2 on offer. He's unbeaten in the UK under rules and just keeps winning so easily, he looks a standout head and shoulders above the field on what we've seen so far. He's 3/3 at the course and can put his experience to good use though this will be the first time he encounters a big field. But is that really a reason to oppose him? Definitely not and he's the shortest priced horse I have backed for this year's festival, by some way too.

Selection - Defi Du Seuil 5/2 - WINNER

Foxhunters

No bet - not a race I have any interest in.

County Hurdle

Mick Jazz had very few of my shillings each way at 20/1 a few weeks ago but having looked at the race again and seen he has been shaved in eight points, I can't say he'd leap off the page now at current price. There a numerous interesting potential contenders here, most of all Peace and Co who won the Triumph here in 2015. Last season was a write off with three below par runs and he hasn't been seen for a year but off 144 and with encouraging reports from home, he could be chucked in here as he's a horse that has a proper engine. He's a keen going sort who has predominantly run on soft ground but he is certainly a horse of interest though a lot has to be taken on trust. The favourite at time of writing is Dan Skelton's North Hill Harvey who hasn't been seen since November when he won the Greatwood, the form of which has been franked left, right and centre. He has plenty of similarities to last year's winner for the same yard and you can expect him to run a big race. Arctic Fire would be another to consider despite top weight but it looks like he may not line up. This is another race to leave til the day I think and I'm happy with my little antepost on Mick for now.

EDIT - with Arctic Fire at 25/1 paying five places, he appeals despite top weight. The absence should be no problem as he'll be fine tuned for this and is the class angle of the race.

Selection - Arctic Fire 25/1 each way - WINNER

Albert Bartlett

This looks a better renewal than usual and the obvious place to start is Death Duty who I put up as a novice hurdler to follow at the start of the season. This is a serious horse who is 4/4 over hurdles this campaign, travels well in his races and then finds plenty for pressure when asked to go and put the race to bed, last time doing so in a Grade 1 at Naas. He'll need more again stepped up in trip on likely different ground and he is the unknown quantity in the race. West Approach has looked the type to have a big race in him and he ran a career best last time behind two leading World Hurdle contenders and on that form he has to be taken very seriously. The reopposing Wholestone had previously beaten him the three times they met, before landing a Grade 2 last time out and he looks the solid horse of the race with the track and ground holding no fears. At 13/2 you could make a case for a decent each way bet. There are interesting contenders at bigger prices too, including Monalee and The Worlds End but I'm not overly confident on anything here to risk putting my money on the line. I'd love to see Death Duty win and win well and if I was pushed I'd probably stay loyal to him with Wholestone as a good each way bet against but I'm going to leave this race for now.

No bet.

Gold Cup

An intriguing and open showcase this year, especially with the absence of Thistlecrack and you could imagine six or seven of these winning the race. The noise behind Djakadam is infectious and he obviously has the form in the book to be a serious contender while I have been coming round to Native River in recent weeks and he probably deserves to be favourite to cap off his fantastic season. Cue Card needs no introduction and he'd be the fairytale winner though he isn't getting any younger and it will have to be now or never you would imagine. Arguably the Ryanair would have suited him nicely and there's no doubt he would have had a better chance but you can't possibly argue with his owners who understandably want to have a shot at a Cheltenham Gold Cup - they may never get the chance again with any horse and good for them that they have gone for it. One horse it would have been nice to see line up is Empire Of Dirt who against his trainer's own desires has been put in the Ryanair. Hard to rule anything out in our sport though and don't be surprised to see him rerouted in the coming days! He'd have to have a proper each way chance if he lines up. I've had two antepost bets in this race though and they aren't any mentioned above. I've gone with the green and gold and dutched More of That and Minella Rocco here. I managed to get a good bit on at 50's and 40's for MOT but he still offers good each way value at 20/1 though I'd equally fancy Minella Rocco and he's a bigger price at 25/1. There's no doubt that he'll come up the hill stronger than anything else and that four miler form is as solid as it comes. The National may be the ultimate aim but he's sure to run a race if cutting out the errors. It's wide open and at current prices I'd only advise a small each way bet on them both but my heart would love to see Cue Card win it.

Selections - Minella Rocco 25/1 each way - placed and More Of That 20/1 each way

Martin Pipe

The 25/1 on offer about The Storyteller in the New Year has long since evaporated and he is the shortest priced horse in the festival handicaps at time of writing. This is probably in part down to the way his trainer has been bigging him up but also down to the good jockey booking of Donagh Meyler as well as the fact that the horse looks well handicapped off 142 and is assured a run. It's not hard to see him running well but at 4/1 he makes no appeal in a race like this to me. This is another contest to wait for the day as plenty aren't guaranteed a run but I'd be keen to back something against the fav at the prices.

No bet.

Grand Annual

This looks like being a decent renewal of the Grand Annual but one names sticks out like a sore thumb to me. Previous festival winner and former Champion Chaser Dodging Bullets isn't the force of old and I know it wasn't an amazing renewal he won but he's shown enough this year (while being minded for this race) to warrant a decent interest at 14/1. A strongly run race with a big field could suit him back over two miles these days and his run behind Altior and Fox Norton last time out was a lovely prep for this. Off 151 you'd hope he can run a big race and paying four places he's a cracking each way proposition for last year's winning stable. Anything in JP's colours must be a danger, considering his recent record in the race but I've had a coverbet on the intriguing L'Ami Serge. Not a horse to put too much trust in, especially with the way he travels before finding a limited amount for pressure, but he has to come into the reckoning. His course record reads 432 (two festival races) and this race could really be run to suit. He'd appreciate a good gallop back over the bare minimum and they've protected his chase mark over the winter with his last three runs being over hurdles with the best of those when beaten a head in the Grade 2 Reelkeel here in January. He won't mind the ground any which way and at 25/1 has to be worth of an each way punt with all of the above considered. He is a horse with bucketloads of raw ability and this could be the day he finally puts it all together - well worth an each way wager against the main selection. Last year's second, Dandridge may be the chief danger as well as anything of JP's.

EDIT - L'Ami Serge NR (nearly nailed my County Hurdle fancy in the end!)

Selections - Dodging Bullets* 14/1 each way

Day Four NAP - Dodging Bullets 14/1 each way


Day One:

Supreme - Pingshou 50/1 ew
Ultima - The Druids Nephew 14/1 ew and Holywell 14/1 ew
Mares - Indian Stream 66/1 ew
NH Chase - Bigbadjohn 16/1 ew and Arpege D'Alene* 16/1 ew - placed
Nov Chase - Bun Doran 33/1 ew

Day Two:

Neptune - Willoughby Court 16/1 ew - WINNER
RSA - Our Kaempfer* 20/1 ew
Coral Cup - Taquin Du Seuil 22/1 ew - placed
Bumper - Western Ryder 10/1 ew

Day Three:

Pertemps - For Good Measure 14/1 ew
Ryanair - Uxizandre 6/1 ew
Stayers - Cole Harden 9/1 ew
Mares Nov - La Bague Au Roi 7/1 ew
Kim Muir - Southfield Royale* 12/1 ew

Day Four:

Triumph - Defi Du Seuil 5/2 - WINNER

County - Arctic Fire 25/1 ew - WINNER
Gold Cup - Minella Rocco 25/1 ew - placed and More Of That 20/1 ew
Grand Annual - Dodging Bullets* 14/1 ew


Each Way NAP's Yankee:

NH Chase - Arpege D'Alene 16/1 - placed
RSA - Our Kaempfer 20/1
Kim Muir - Southfield Royale 12/1
Grand Annual - Dodging Bullets 14/1


All that's left to say is thanks ever so much for taking the time to read my thoughts and any feedback on Twitter is always greatly appreciated. We are now into the latter stages of the countdown to the festival and I for one can't wait.


EDIT - Three winners over the course of the four days at 5/2, 16/1 and 25/1 and three place returns at 16/1, 22/1 and 25/1 mean we end the week in decent profit. £20 each way on all selections (£40 win on Defi Du Seuil) would have seen you return £1620 on a £800 investment for a £820 profit just playing the singles. A decent festival by most standards and already counting down til next year! Hope this preview proved useful for you, and hopefully made you a few quid in the process.

THT

NH 2016/2017 Fifteen To Follow

After a hugely successful flat season for the fifteen to follow, I am very much looking forward to the prospect of the jumps - my preferred code. Here are a few stats from the 15TF this season. (Correct as of 31st October 2016)

14 individual runners
51 individual runs
17 winners (33%SR)
32 placed (63%SR)

LSP: +41.72pts

A £25 win bet on all the selections would have yielded a profit of £1043 at SP. Hopefully the jumpers can be even more successful.

On to the jumps and I'm afraid I am going to have to recycle last year's intro for this blog, so here goes. It's that time of year when us NH fans are looking forward to the proper jumping season getting started again. I love the flat but my passion like many others is the jumps, we see the horses for longer and we can love them for what they are over many seasons. I've said before that NH is more about love and passion while the flat is more of a business, it's what seperates the two. The longevity of the careers of the animal is also much different, we don't get a chance to love the flat horses like we do the jumpers, the great ones aren't around for long enough. The people involved in jumps racing do it because they love it, not because it's profitable to them, because it very rarely is. The horses are generally bigger, braver and stronger and seeing a thoroughbred soar over a big fence - doing something the horse itself loves doing; there is no greater spectacle in racing. I can't wait for it all to kick off again. And despite what many people say, yes, for a lot of people it IS all about Cheltenham Festival and in my mind there is nothing wrong with that at all. A four day bonanza of world class racing with the best jumps horses in the world doing what they do best, it's a great way to bring the curtain down on the jumps season. (Yes I know there is Aintree and Punchestown too!) Cheltenham is where the majority of owners want runners, it's where the trainers want to train a winner and it's where the jockeys want to ride. When a new horse is bought into a yard, the first thing everyone wants to know is will this horse be the one to take them to the festival. Hopefully a few below can do just that for their connections.


Novice Hurdlers:

Gordon Elliott looks to be going into the jumps season with some serious firepower behind his stable-doors. One of his better prospects wasn't even in his yard a few months ago but the Gigginstown/Mullins fallout left him as the main beneficiary and he was lucky enough to be sent BLOW BY BLOW. This gorgeous son of Robin Des Champs has shown an extremely likeable attitude in his four starts to date, culminating in his 3/4L victory from Moonracer in the Grade 1 bumper at the Punchestown Festival. The form of that race is strong and he can take high order in the novice ranks this season. A tilt at the Albert Bartlett could be the likeliest option in Spring with a pedigree full of staying potential and he could be an even better chaser in time.

DEATH DUTY looks every inch a thorough stayer and chasing will be his game long-term. That said, he should have enough about him to make up into a top class novice hurdler this season. He has a similar profile to stablemate Blow By Blow; indeed he finished second behind him in his final bumper at Fairyhouse. His trainer could have a headache when it comes to March as they both look Albert Bartlett types to me. Gordon Elliott thinks an awful lot of this horse and he won as he liked on his reappearance/hurdles debut. It's possible that ground on the softer side would be his ideal conditions underfoot.

If I had cracked on with this blog a bit earlier we would have already had a 10/1 winner to shout about as someone who knows their onions steered me towards the potential of ELEGANT ESCAPE. Colin Tizzard's exciting 4yo came second in one of the stronger PTP's of last season, finishing behind Samcro who is now with Gordon Elliott. This son of American sire Dubai Destination looked green throughout his rules debut and was described as babyish in the prelims - connections expected him to improve considerably for the run. The huge drift out to 10/1 from 10/3 on course said as much, but he was ridden confidently and travelled strongly, only called upon for an effort after the last where he was merely pushed out without use of the stick. He showed a willing attitude and stuck his neck out to snatch an unlikely looking victory as the second (Persian Delight) was travelling so well until he was challenged up the run in. This horse can be expected to improve considerably through the season as he will come on plenty for his hurdles debut and that PTP form is solid.

ESPOIR DE TEILLEE could be a serious horse. He was in the lead and in command when falling at the last in his sole PTP at Athlacca and was bought for £220k by leading owner Roger Brookhouse at the Goffs Spring sale in May. He will start off in a bumper according to his trainer and could make up into a top class prospect for the expanding Neil Mulholland operation. He's the joint favourite for the Champion Bumper at time of writing but you would expect this horse to be jumping sooner rather than later and in time could be a tip-top chaser down the line. Still very early days but certainly one to look out for first time up in the coming months and he rates as a must follow for the season ahead.*

GIVE ME A COPPER is one of the more exciting novices within the champion trainer's ranks this season and he has a couple of novice hurdle entries this week. Another one who will come into his own over the bigger obstacles in time, this 6yo son of Presenting can still be expected to win some good races this Winter over hurdles. A £270k purchase, he'll want to be half decent and the manner in which he won his Cork bumper suggests it's likely he will be. He's settled in well at Ditcheat and his old trainer, Donal Coffey remarked 'The best we've ever had, a right horse. We'd sell anything for the right price but if he isn't sold soon we'll keep him for the Gold Cup!' Obviously these things should be taken light-heartedly but he's clearly held in some regard. Let's hope he can show on the racecourse what he has been at home.

JENKINS won't escape many horses to follow blogs and it's the same story here. His trainer thinks the world of him and he knows a good horse when he sees one. He pulverised the opposition on his debut at Newbury without breaking sweat, pulling well clear of Cash Again who was subsequently clear of the remainder. He was made odds on for his second start over the sea and really should be two from two but was arguably given a misjudged ride, ridden too agressively and pushed clear 2f out before getting tired and being collared close home. He is a big powerful horse who devours the ground but has a real good turn of foot and plenty of toe to boot. The Supreme looks the likely option for me come March and he has been the subject of glowing schooling reports. A summer on his back will have done him the world of good and he can mature into a star novice hurdler this season. You certainly won't miss him in his races with his striking big white blaze.

MELROSE BOY on the contrary, may not feature so prominently in many people's 'horses to follow' notebooks. He was well fancied on debut but was just a bit outpaced once the leaders quickened inside the 2f pole. He ran with promise, is well regarded at home and can show up a lot better once hurdling. Whilst he may lack some of the potential of a few of these on the list, he is sure to win races this season and can improve with experience. Another horse that ran in the same race on debut was CRUISEAWEIGH. Tom George's Oscar gelding was extremely well backed into 9/4 favouritism from double figure prices overnight and he travelled kindly before taking it up 2f out only to be nailed by Movewiththetimes close home, who has subsequently won a fair novice hurdle as he liked. The pair were a good bit clear and he was clearly showing something at home before his very promising debut effort. The fifth placed horse has come out and won since too and I think the form will work out. I've done a bit of probing and tried to find out some more details about this horse but it seems those associated with the horse want to keep their cards close to their chest about him. I get the impression he is very well thought of and he can win a bumper before going novice hurdling. Two dark horses here, but both ready made winners this season for sure.

SAMCRO could be very good indeed. A £335k purchase by Mags O'Toole on behalf of Gigginstown House Stud, this 4yo won the Monksgrange PTP mentioned above (beating Elegant Escape) and I hate to use the phrase but he really 'could be anything.' A son of Germany like Faugheen, he could be minded this season and could stick to bumpers before embarking on a more serious campaign next year but he will be a fascinating horse in time and one to watch out for when he does make an appearance in the coming weeks.*

I've not been able to find out too much about SECRET INVESTOR but he was chasing Espoir De Teillee home for second before being handed the race when his opponent fell at the last. The buyers seem to rate the form and he was picked up for £175k on behalf of Paul Nicholls in May. He has reportedly been doing things nicely at home, showing a willing attitude and schooling with enthusiasm, though he would be a long way off the finished article. Like many Nicholls sales buys, his long-term future will ultimately be over fences but he's one to look out for and is expected to go novice hurdling straightaway.


Novice Chasers:

ANATOL was very well backed beforehand but looked an utterly terrifying ride on his British/Chase/Stable debut a year ago to the day. Despite reaching for one or two down the back straight, he jumped exceptionally, seeing a stride at the wings a few times showing great scope in the process, though I'm not totally convinced his rider had much control throughout! The horse was totally lit up, ran very keen and went off like a scalded cat in front. With all that being said he still led approaching the last and just got tired upon landing after using all his energy early on, finishing a creditable third to two good horses - a great effort under the circumstances. With this being run over 2m3f, I can see this horse being dropped back to the bare two mile minimum and being extremely hard to peg back off a mark of 135 on reappearance. He reminds me of stablemate Marracudja with his running style and clearly has enough pace and class to be winning off his mark back at 2m, though he could stay further if they can settle him down a bit a home. I urge you to take five minutes out of your day to watch a replay of his run at Ascot if you can, can't imagine Nick Schofield's pants came back the same colour as they went out!

BEAT THAT has always been held in the highest regard by his trainer, Nicky Henderson. He's had his problems and has had a very stop-start career and a horse like this will always come with risks attached. However, his hurdles form was very good, winning two Grade 1 novices and he was as short as 10/1 for the 2015 World Hurdle before a suspensory injury scuppered those plans. He has always been seen as a chaser in the making which make his hurdle exploits all the more encouraging and is reportedly back in work, looking fantastic. It's very reasonable to expect him to need his first run after such a long absence and such a significant injury, but this horse could reach the very top over fences. Don't forget he has had horses like Don Poli and Cole Harden behind him and hopefully he can repay his patient owner's faith throughout the course of the season. He could be minded a bit and end up quite lightly raced this year but the RSA would be a possibility, though he did skip the festival for Aintree/Punchestown options in 2014 so it wouldn't be a surprise to see a similar campaign this time around if they can keep him sound.

2m4f looks to be the trip that ROCK THE KASBAH will be campaigned over this season; his first over the bigger obstacles. A Grade 3 winner over hurdles, he was impressive on chase debut when holding off Our Kaempfer, Theinval and the exciting Clan Des Obeaux who himself should come on for the run and improve throughout the season. He seems to go on any ground and this 150-rated hurdler has potential to reach high rank in the novice chasing division this season. A tilt at the JLT could be the long term plan and Richard Johnson (referring to Hobbs yard) has said 'he is as exciting a horse as we've got.' He comes across as an uncomplicated and very straightforward type and there's no reason he can't turn out to be a top class chaser in time.

A forth and final Gordon Elliott horse here in the shape of SUTTON PLACE. There are very high hopes for this horse this season at Cullentra House and the plan is to go novice chasing. He ran a most promising race on debut when an unfancied 50/1 poke rattling home all too late for third behind Anibale Fly who was last seen winning a Grade B Hurdle at the Punchestown Festival off 135. He then won his bumper as he liked before following up in Listed/Grade 2 company back over hurdles. Connections are wasting no time sending him chasing and in time he'll want a trip. He should be seen just before Christmas and the JLT/RSA could well be on the agenda if this lad progresses as those close to the horse think he might. My third and final must follow.*

Handicappers:

My sole handicapper to follow this season is the talented DOUBLE SHUFFLE. A two time winner over hurdles, he was quickly sent novice chasing by connections, running in two hot contests around Cheltenham finishing second behind Art Mauresque and forth behind More Of That. He was eased in grade to gain his first win over fences at Ludlow beating Colin Tizzard's Fourth Act in workmanlike fashion before a superb run at this year's Cheltenham Festival, finishing a five lengths third behind Ballyalton and Bouvreuil in the Listed Novices Handicap Chase. He ran again at Ayr but ran a bit flat and was sent out for his holiday. Another summer on his back would have done him the world of good and despite some blunders he reappeared with a fine effort, again behind old foe Art Mauresque, doing all his best work at the finish, beaten a neck at the line. He can be expected to come on for that run and is being aimed at the Betvictor Gold Cup in just under two weeks time. This Milan 6yo looks to hold an outstanding each way chance off a mark of 145 and should be going close in top handicaps over 2m4f this season.

Ones that got away:

Robinsfirth was a must-follow for me last year but was ruled out through injury. After speaking to someone close to the yard and hearing about his endless list of problems with different injuries, I've decided to not include him this time around. If he makes it to the racecourse I hope he can show the ability he had been at home before his issues but it may be that we never see the horse those close to him once thought he had the potential to be, which is a real shame.

Clan Des Obeaux strikes me as one to keep on side this year. Still very lightly raced and the Triumph Hurdle form is solid enough. They are wasting no time sending him chasing but I was a bit underwhelemed with his debut over the bigger obstacles, despite the fact he would have needed the run. Surely plenty more to come though and one to keep in mind though he doesn't make the final fifteen.

Robin Roe looks one of Dan Skelton's better novice hurdle prospects this season and he'd be my sixteenth if I could have one extra on the list. He was very impressive on hurdles debut when well supported and could take high rank in the novice hurdling division this season. I know he is well regarded, especially by the trainer's brother and he is worth keeping a close eye out for this season as he learns his trade and improves with experience.

Asum is another of Dan Skelton's exciting novices and is clearly well thought of. He was well punted on hurdling debut but got going too late and was quickly put away after finishing second behind Clondaw Cracker in a decent enough looking bumper. Reportedly a keen-goer at home, he should have learnt plenty from his debut and make up into a nice novice hurdler. He has been the subject of good schooling reports and will go hurdling right away,


Fifteen to follow:

Anatol -
Beat That - 6
Blow By Blow -
Cruiseaweigh - 1P73
Death Duty - 111F3
Double Shuffle - P512P
Elegant Escape - 14577
*Espoir De Teillee - 61
Give Me A Copper - 161
Jenkins - 141
Melrose Boy - 323
Rock The Kasbah - 324126
*Samcro - 111
Secret Investor - 2
*Sutton Place - 11P

* = Must Follow


Form: 133P2115311P711214241611651F32277P11111636P

Must follow form: 1161111P

Winners:

Cruiseaweigh 1/1

Elegant Escape 8/1

Samcro 4/9

Jenkins 10/11

Death Duty 11/10
Give Me A Copper 4/6

Death Duty 6/4

Samcro 1/3

Double Shuffle 8/1
Death Duty 4/6
Sutton Place 4/6
Rock The Kasbah 2/1

Sutton Place 4/1

Espoir De Teillee 10/1
Jenkins 1/4
Samcro 8/13

Give Me A Copper 9/4

LSP: +15.23pts

Fifteen Flat Horses to Follow 2016

Below you will find a list of my belated horses to follow this up and coming flat season. The main focus will be on unexposed 2yos and 3yos who are likely to improve and progress throughout the season, few of which can hopefully turn into very smart pattern performers in time. That said, one or two will be typical well handicapped types that are sure to win races at their level as well as the odd curveball chucked in too. These blogs are usually popular and have thankfully been largely successful too. With plenty of bad luck and a couple of the more promising ones ruled out injured, my last horses to follow blog (for the jumps) still managed to churn up seventeen winners from eleven horses that ran last season, ending up with a few points profit once all the dust was settled. Here are the stats:

11 individual horses
45 individual runs
17 winners (38% SR)
31 placed (69% SR)

With a few of those twos and threes turning into ones and a little bit more luck on side, these stats could have easily been all the more impressive, but that's the nature of racing and especially so over obstacles.

Hopefully it will be more of the same for the horses on the level and this list has been compiled from a combination of personal notes, my own form study, trainers comments, word of mouth, the work and recommendations of other knowledgable racing folk and one or two were even put forward by the good people of Twitter-land themselves. From 40+ contenders, I've whittled it down to fifteen horses that are, in my head at least, must follows for the year ahead. If you have a tracker then add the names below, if you don't but would like your own then I find the free 'My Stable' feature on the Sportinglife website to be very easy to use. You can add horses and even trainers/jockeys if you wish and you will get an email the night before they run to let you know they are declared. All you need is a Skybet account and away you go. Furthermore with the Sportinglife website, you can watch race replays, look into form, entries etc - I find myself on there more than Racing Post and Attheraces sites in all honesty. Anyway, on to the selections:

ALJULJALAH - 3yo filly by Exhange Rate/Ruler's Charm - 19

It's still early days for this American bred filly but she knew her job on debut when nicely winning a Newmarket maiden. Atzeni kept things simple having her on the heels of the leaders and letting her do her thing as they approached the furlong marker. She put the race to bed nicely and while the form of that race is yet to really be tested, one horse of Sir Michael Stoute's has subsequently come out and won. Next time she was asked a big question bumped up into Group 3 company. She came there travelling well enough 2f out but didn't have the toe to really ever make much of an impression. The bit of juice in the ground that day would not have suited her and she is better than that, but only being beaten 6L in Group company on only her second career start is nothing to be too disappointed with. She has reportedly been doing some promising homework and will likely be campaigned over a mile. Fast ground is key to this horse and she is likely to start her campaign at York in a listed race next month after a little setback prevented her running in a Guineas trial earlier on in the season. The Roger Varian trained 3yo holds a Coronation Stakes entry too and could well turn out to be an above average filly.

ANDASTRA - 3yo filly by Kamsin/Arpista - 1

This German bred filly put up a very professional performance on debut when making all unchallenged at Nottingham back in September. The form hasn't amounted to much as many behind have since been brought along with handicaps in mind though the third from that race has subsequently won a maiden at the least. The manner which she travelled through the race and put the race to bed is what created a lasting impression and she clocked a decent time in the process. Her pedigree suggests stepping up in trip could bring out the best in her and this is exactly the type of horse Ralph Beckett excels with. She had a bit of a niggle over winter but is back in full work now and heads to the Lingfield Oaks Trial all being well. A bold show there could well see her lining up at Epsom; her trainer has high aspirations for her this season and she is a filly to keep on side through the course of the coming months.

BESS OF HARDWICK - 4yo filly by Dansili/Request - 31

Luca Cumani is a trainer I really like and he has started the season in fine form. This half-sister to Ask could be one of his leading lights this season judged by her two runs last term. Her debut form has worked out very well, with the winner she was beaten 2L by having subsequently won a Listed contest and a Group 2. She also had a horse behind that's now rated 96 as well as a few other horses in her trail who have since come out and won. Despite being markedly green, she came home with an encouraging rattle and might have troubled the winner and the second with another few strides. Bess duly won her maiden next time at short odds beating a subsequent winner on the bridle in the process and was then put away for winter. If she reappears in a handicap she will take some stopping off 87. Whether her trainer saves her for a staying handicap such as the Ebor or whether he cracks on with her right away, I'm not sure, but either way she looks like she'll stay further than the mile and a half and she looks a serious filly in the making. Any amount of improvement to come and despite my slight loathing feeling for the phrase, 'could be anything' does apply here. A must follow.

BROROCCO - 3yo gelding by Shirocco/Lady Brora - 69467

A five race maiden isn't the type of horse you would expect to see on a horses to follow list but bear with me. He was obviously showing something at home as he was put in a Group 3 on his second start but ran too green to do himself justice, running an encouraging race nevertheless. He was then very well fancied on his reappearance/handicap debut (11/10 market leader) but he got a bit upset in the prelims and took off down to the start with his rider and basically lost the race before the off in which he ran far too keen to ever have had much of a chance anyway. Connections tried a hood last time but that didn't work either, he pulled far too hard once more and gave himself no chance of staying the trip. Now rated 5lbs his handicap debut when well backed, he gives the impression that he could be dangerously well handicapped if they find the key to settling him at home. A drop in trip could be on the cards due to his free going nature and he is clearly showing a lot more on the gallops than he is allowing himself to do on the track. He has been called 'high class' and has 'considerable ability' according to his trainer Andrew Balding and is the type to rack up a sequence if they can get inside his head at home. A risky and odd addition to this list I know, but he could be chucked in off 74.

CHESS MASTER - 3yo colt by Sharmardal/Cassandra Go - 3

This son of Sharmardal ran a very encouraging race on debut at Leicester staying on steadily into the money behind subsequent Royal Lodge third Muntazah. Charlie Appleby's usually need their debut run and will often show marked improvement on their second outing and this one can do the same. A maiden should be a formality in the coming weeks and he can make his presence felt in handicaps after he's got a win under his belt. He could progress enough to line up in a big 3yo handicap later in the season and ultimately could be a pattern horse. Positive reports in a recent stable tour only add fuel to the fire and I'm looking forward to seeing this nicely named 3yo back out on the track.

DANCING STAR - 3yo filly by Aqlaam/Strictly Dancing - 417

Another one to follow in run of the mill handicaps this season, this daughter of Aqlaam can make her presence felt off what could be a lenient mark of 75. She came on from her highly encouraging debut run at Windsor to win nicely on her second start at the same track. With the substance of the form yet to be really tested despite a dual subsequent winner finishing in behind it is hard to say quite how well handicapped she could be but the manner of the victory was impressive. Despite reportedly hating the course last time at Chester she was still only beaten four lengths in a Class 2 conditions race and can take advantage of a drop in class when she reappears in a handicap on a better suiting track. She has no entries at the time of writing but the time to catch her could be first time out though she can hopefully rack up a bit of a sequence and progress through the handicap ranks throughout the season.

G K CHESTERTON - 3yo colt by Poet's Voice/Neptune's Bride - 31

When I've seen Charlie Appleby talk about this horse, I've got the impression he holds this son of Poet's Voice in the highest regard. Despite a perfectly nice but fairly unexciting pedigree he ran a cracker on debut to finish 3rd beaten a neck and a head by two nice horses. A neck in front of him was a very exciting filly of Ralph Beckett's called Mountain Bell (rated 95) who hosed up in a maiden at Windsor next time and could turn into a credible Oaks contender as the season develops. A length behind GKC in forth was Ennaadd, a horse that has since completed a hattrick and is now rated 106. This gives the form a very solid look and he duly confirmed his debut promise when winning professionally at Redcar on soft ground. He won comfortably by 5L from a subsequent maiden winner of William Haggas' and was alloted a mark of 89. This looks extremely exploitable and he is one to watch out for on reappearance. His target was meant to be a 0-95 handicap at the Guineas meeting (for which he would have been a cracking bet) but he holds no entry. He can progress from handicap company rather quickly though this season and could be seen racing at up to 1m4f as the year goes on. A must follow and remains in the Derby at the time of writing.

GREAT AND SMALL - 3yo filly by Galileo/Gryada - 8

Finishing a well beaten eighth of ten on debut isn't usually one that screams out as a horse to follow but this filly by the most successful sire in racing history is of interest though admittedly this is a risky addition to the list. She's closely rated to Aiden O'Brien's brilliant stayer Fame And Glory and will be seen to best effect as she gradually steps up in distance herself. It's no secret that this trainer's horses often need their first run and she was a raw backward type last year. Reportedly wintered brilliantly and has come back in looking a different horse and worth watching out for in a maiden in the coming weeks as her work has apparently been pleasing those close to the horse at home. Could progress into a nice handicap prospect later on in the year and should win races.

GREAT ORDER - 3yo colt by Distorted Humour/Michita - 4

Went off favourite on debut in traditionally strong maiden at Newmarket but the penny dropped all too late when storming home from off the pace for a never nearer forth. The form is working out with the winner having since won a Group 3 and a maiden will be a formality on reappearance. He posesses a lovely pedigree as you would expect and can make his presence felt in some decent races this season at a mile and beyond. Could be an exciting prospect for the boys in blue and certainly worthy of an addition to your tracker.

MUTAWAALY - 3yo colt by Cape Cross/Sana Abel - 15

This colt out of a half sister to 2005 Oaks heroine Eswarah won a Wolverhampton maiden back in December and reappeared with a disappointing fifth on his first handicap start when the ground went against him. He needs top of the ground and the soft ground at Newmarket prevented him from rewarding the significant market confidence behind him. (11/10 fav) While his dam is yet unproven, his trainer seems to think plenty of him with a potential trip to Royal Ascot already on the radar despite a current handicap rating of only 85. When he gets his ideal conditions, he should show himself to be a progressive sort and he heads to Chester over 1m4f on May 4th all being well and must hold every chance if the ground comes up right.

NEW WORLD POWER - 3yo colt by Deep Impact/Listen - Unraced

Another Roger Varian inmate, this time the impeccably bred New World Power. His exciting Japanese pedigree points towards this horse staying 1m4f+ in time and he still holds the Derby entry. He is extremely well regarded by his trainer and was given a very positive report in a recent stable tour when mentioned alongsides Choreographer who won impressively on his first career start at Windsor on 25th April. With horses from this outfit usually knowing their job on debut, first time up could be the time to catch him. Exciting horse that should be seen on a racecourse in the next couple of weeks.

RAH RAH - 3yo filly by Lonhro/Rahiyah - 110541

A filly I kept onside last year, I'm a big fan of this Godolphin-owned 3yo. I'm always a little cautious when fillies have had busy 2yo campaigns but Rah Rah showed no ill-effects when winning nicely on her reappearance despite being outpaced in rear and having them all to pass in the straight. She won cosily despite the inadequate trip and is likely to be competing in Group races from now on. There is talk of a potential move up to 7f+ and she holds an eye-catching Coronation Stakes entry at Royal Ascot despite a current mark of only 102. She picked up a niggle after that last run but is back in work and although she has a tempting mark for a big heritage handicap, her likely next race will be the Group 2 Duke of York Clipper Logisitics Stakes in May. As her trainer has said about her, 'the sky's the limit.'

SHADAD - 3yo colt by Zamindar/Tender Morn - 6

Very backward colt who ran a promising debut when not unfancied at two. He was very keen going to post and also refused to settle in the race but wasn't beaten all that far and will have learnt a lot from the experience. Put away for the winter, he's back in full training and has been doing some good homework, showing the benefits of a recent gelding operation. His trainer thinks a bit of him and we are likely to see him racing over 7f-1m. He should be well up to winning a maiden in the coming weeks and can progress through the handicap ranks once he's got his head in front. Not an obvious one but he can win races this season and could be alright with a nice pedigree to boot.

SPANGLED - 4yo filly by Starspangledbanner/Zykina - 71147

The forth Roger Varian inmate on this list, this big imposing filly by Starspangledbanner can make considerable improvement from three to four like the stable's Talmada and Ambivalent have shown in the past. She had an excuse at York and is better than she ran on her final 3yo start at HQ.  With reports of exciting homework it is likely she can make the most of a mark of 97 when she returns which is likely to be in a fillies handicap at Ascot in May. Her trainer is hopeful she can make the jump from handicap to pattern company sooner rather than later and is likely to be kept over 7f-1m. The form of her Newmarket win on handicap debut has worked out well (five subsequent winners behind) and continues to be franked and this filly is sure to improve considerably as the season progresses.

TO BE WILD - 3yo colt by Big Bad Bob/Fire Up - 5

This Al Kazeem relation ran a most encouraging race on debut in a Newmarket maiden, green as grass in rear before powering home once the penny dropped for a never nearer fifth beaten eight or so lengths by Mustajeer, who has since shown himself to be pretty useful finishing second in the Fielden and holding the Dante/Derby entries. In second that day was Linguistic of John Gosden's who won the 200,000 Tatersalls 3yo Trophy on reappearance and himself holds the Dante entry for which he's likely to be prominent in the betting on the day if he lines up. In third was stablemate Mengli Khan who since won a maiden and then ran in the Racing Post Trophy before being beaten 3L in the Fielden on reappearance this season. Muzdawaj was forth that day and he subsequently won a maiden and two horses behind have also since come out and won. In short this was a very decent maiden and with the experience under his belt and a potential step up in trip in order, To Be Wild can shed his tag before progressing to bigger and better things for a trainer on the ascent. One to be excited about.


Fifteen to follow:

Aljuljalah - 208422
Andastra -
*Bess Of Hardwick - 8411
Brorocco - 42311433
Chess Master - 7
Dancing Star - 112119
*G K Chesterton - 57
Great and Small - 9124
Great Order - 31122
Mutawaaly - 8
New World Power - 234
Rah Rah - 90
Shadad - 4210
Spangled - 10511
*To Be Wild - 11

* = Must Follow


Form:

91272048114233212912854803101111142119413420134527121

Winners:

Dancing Star 4/1
Spangled 11/8

Dancing Star 5/2
Shadad 4/1

Dancing Star 7/1

Great Order 11/10

Spangled 5/2

Great and Small 10/1

To Be Wild 4/6

Brorocco 13/2

Dancing Star 9/2

Brorocco 5/4

Great Order 5/2

Spangled 14/1

Bess Of Hardwick 10/3

To Be Wild 6/1
Bess of Hardwick 9/2

LSP (SP):

+41.72pts

Hope you enjoyed the read and should be plenty of winners to be backed from this lot throughout the course of the season. Let me know your thoughts and feedback on Twitter @THTRacing.

THT

Cheltenham Festival Preview 2016

Hello and welcome to my 2016 Cheltenham Festival preview. These blogs have had good success  with main highlight being last years 'festival banker' being large bets on Un De Sceaux at 6/1, 5/1 and 4/1 antepost for the Arkle, - hopefully more of the same this time around. Cheltenham needs no introduction, it's every NH racing fan's favourite four days of the year and as ever, this year's festival looks to be a proper cracker. Below you will find brief analysis of races and runners, ante post fancies, any gossip and likely race targets as well as the usual word from various preview evenings which are held in various locations across the country in the weeks leading up to that roar early Tuesday afternoon mid March. This blog will regularly be updated in the run up to Chelt so keep an eye out on Twitter @THTRacing for any added info or tips.

Supreme Novices Hurdle - Min for the Win?

Last year's winner Douvan looks like he is something very very special indeed. Willie said before the Supreme that 'this is as nice a horse as we have ever taken to Cheltenham' and he has since shown why his trainer said that of him. He is a short priced favourite for the next race on the card and you can't possibly oppose him, he looks an absolute certainty but more about that next. The reason I mention him is due to his extremely similar profile to this year's hotpot, Min. Both 2/2 over here at this stage, both won the Moscow Flyer Grade 2 Novice Hurdle very easily, both were bought from the same connections and both are sired by Walk In The Park. That said, there hasn't been the same superstar hype about him as the last two winners, Vautour and the previously mentioned Douvan. There may be a bit of vulnerability about him, he may not be a real top notcher but he may not have to be as on the face of it this year's Supreme doesn't look overly strong. Tombstone looks the right type for the race and his trainer has always liked him for the Supreme. His latest run where he loomed up looking like the winner before getting tired close home suggests dropping back 2f to the bare 2m in the Supreme will be ideal. He has some of the best form in the line up, certainly a lot stronger than the favourite who is priced on the Mullins/Ricci factor and the manner in which he has beaten relative trees. His last victory, priced at 1/7 he comfortably beat one horse who definitely won't be at Cheltenham and another that is very unlikely to be at Cheltenham, so it is hard to compare. I've always been a fan of backing form over hype and potential and at best priced 13/8, Min makes no appeal whatsoever. Altior is a very interesting alternative. He possesses some encouraging attributes, the first of which is form at Cheltenham. His form isn't overly exciting though and has taken a few knocks but this horse certainly doesn't shy away from a battle. He is a real fighter; really tries and is unbeaten in four over hurdles. He is likely to run his heart out once more. 6/1 is probably about the fair price for him at this stage and doesn't really entice. The manner of stablemate Buveur D'Air's victories has really impressed. He beat Wait For Me as he liked (who has since followed up with two workmanlike victories) before winning again in a bit of a non event where he was 2/11 favourite. He comes into this race as a bit of an unknown quantity and he is priced at 8/1. Two nice darts for the Henderson team though this will be a big step up for Altior and a huge step up for Buveur D'Air. Bleu Et Rouge is also worth mentioning, after all he downed Tombstone over 2m2f in the Grade 1 Deloitte and that victory seemed to come at no surprise to connections. He really battled on well when asked by Geraghty but could he be more of a Neptune type? He is a best priced 16/1 for both races at this stage but if he turns up here he would be a talented second string for Mr Mullins. JP already has the favourite for the Neptune and on that argument maybe you would suggest he is more likely to line up here in which case he represents decent each way value. My final mention goes to Moonracer. He ran out an ultimately impressive (blew the start and made up a lot of ground) winner of the bumper here 12 months ago but his season has had a few niggles and he won't have time to have a prep run, so is being aimed to make a reappearance in the Supreme itself. On the face of it this looks a huge ask but his bumper form has worked out well and he has always been held in the highest regard by connections. He's 25/1 at this stage which is probably about right, but if he's still that price on the day with likely four/five place offers flying around he may tempt some into having a little tickle each way. That said he is a 7yo now (only two 7yos won in past 40 years) and may end up wanting a bit further and have connections possibly got half an eye on Aintree too? Too many doubts to warrant backing him at this stage but I am excited to see him reappear. At this stage, Tombstone is my selection. This is a race to look for some each way value against Min who takes up so much of the book. Tombstone is well regarded, looks the right type, has some very soild form, is definitely going for this race and will be shorter on the day. At a best priced 16/1 with Ladbrokes, he is my sole selection and rates a decent each way proposition in the opener.

Tombstone 16/1 each way (Ladbrokes) 4th

Arkle - Ar you Mad to take on Douvan?

Like the Supreme, the Arkle market revolves around one horse. Unlike the horse at the head of the Supreme market however, Douvan has already proved himself on the big stage. Three of the last four winners of this race have been odds on favourites and it looks extremely likely that at 14.10 on the Tuesday afternoon will see that record improve to four of the last five. As mentioned above, Willie was extremely complimentary about him before he won the Supreme and he has been faultless so far over fences. He hasn't beaten any superstars, but he's beaten everything that other connections were good enough to compete against him, and beaten them merclilessly. The Arkle will be his biggest test to date but this horse looks like he will be extremely hard to beat. Unlike in the Supreme, I don't think there is any point backing something each way against him in the standard books. The w/o Douvan market is of more interest however. L'Ami Serge will line up here instead of the JLT despite running over 2m3f on heavy last time out. (and he wasn't stopping at the end either) He slammed Doctor Harper at Plumpton the time before and that horse has since won again and had been heavily backed for the Centenary Novice Chase before the handicapper gave him a mark of 141 (race is 0-140) L'Ami Serge's Wetherby performance was faultless and a nice prep run for this. He ran a cracker in the Supreme last year, just getting going too late after being badly hampered twice on the way round and though this will be a big step up from his two sets of competition this season, he is a classy horse and for Nicky Henderson has only tasted defeat on that one occasion. It is still hard to say quite how good he is but at 5/2 in the w/o Douvan market he doesn't represent enough value for me. Vaniteux and Ar Mad faced eachother at Kempton two days after Christmas having a right set two up the straight. Vaniteux came to win the race but the tough and loveable Ar Mad didn't know when he was beaten and re-rallied to get back up close home, a real gritty and hardy performance that won the horse many fans, including me. That form has since been boosted when Vaniteux got back to winning ways last time out at Doncaster beating a small but very decent field, including confirming the form with Arzal and Fox Norton who likely skips the festival for Aintree. Ar Mad has improved over 30lbs this year and has been transformed for the removal of the hood and the revert to front running. Whether he will get an easy lead and whether he is as effective going left handed are questions hanging over him but at 7/1 he represents a very good bet in the without Douvan markets each way. He may have more improvement to come and connections are looking to having a prep race round Plumpton in the next week or two. I think the market has this race about right and these four look a class apart from the rest of the field. I think this race might really cut up, nothing stands out at all at bigger prices. Ar Mad in the w/o Douvan market will see some each way profit at the very least but I, like many, expect Douvan to win and win well. EDIT << Ar Mad has since been ruled out of the race with a leg injury so the race may as well be awarded to Douvan now. Big shame for the Moore's and my antepost book! Always one or to casualties when you back horses a month or two in advance but that's the compensation for the much bigger prices you can find. >>

Festival Handicap Chase - The Master Plan all along?

The most competitive race on day one is the Festival Handicap Chase. Last year's winner was The Druids Nephew and his stablemate looks a good place to start this year. The Young Master has been aimed at this race all season (like most who will line up) and has a profile very similar to that of last years winner. Both ran in the Hennessy (if you can call TYM's effort a run) and both had their prep in the Cleeve, both incidentally beaten just over 40 lengths. A prep over hurdles suggests the trainer is happy with the mark going into this race and wants to protect it rather than running over fences again. Furthermore, The Druids Nephew won this last year off 146, and with Sam Waley Cohen's claim taken into account The Young Master will effectively be off the same mark. That last sentence however highlights the one downside to backing him, the jockey - who is now contracted to ride with Daddy having bought half a share. The WC's get involved with horses they see as Grand National types and this horse certianly looks like he'll be lining up in the coming seasons though not this time around. I won't go into much detail about many other runners as 20/1 for The Young Master is my each way fancy. On this season's performances, you'd think twice but with a profile so similar to last year's winner, he rates a very solid each way chance with course form and thorough staying ability in the armoury. Others to mention include the very disappointing Minella Rocco for the ever-shrewd Jonjo O'Neill who knows how to win this race (3 of last 7 renewals) - If they can get him right (genuinely or by 'chance') on the day then 143 may underestimate him despite his wayward jumping. However this race isn't necessarily the target, he has various entries and would be the least exposed and only the third 6yo to ever win this race if he were to be successful. If he lines up on the day and is still around 20/1 you may think about chancing a couple each way. Kings Palace is also worthy of a mention. I never saw the hype around this horse but his trainer has always admired him and he is coming in very much under the radar unlike last year where people were all over him in the RSA. He too is entered in a few races and ran a quiet race in the Paddy Power but he has good form at Cheltenham and has slipped to a mark of 152 which in a competitive handicap like this would be a big ask as he'd carry almost top weight but we'll have to wait and see where he ends up. Minella Foru is the current 14/1 favourite, raised 12lbs to 146 for his win in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown, he can probably still do some damage off that mark and is an interesting runner despite only being a 6yo himself. McManus entrants in this race are often worth a second look and no reason why this lad wont run well if he turns up on the day too, but my preference is for the Neil Mulholland raider. EDIT << With this race the confirmed target for Holywell, he has to be backed at 14/1 for this. With a nice racing weight of 11st 2lbs and course form of 114 including wins in the 2013 Pertemps, this race 2014 and a superb forth in last year's Gold Cup he looks a real standout bet in this race and I can't possibly imagine he'll be a double figure price on the day. I probably fancy him more than my original selection in all honesty. >>

The Young Master 20/1 each way (Paddy Power) 3rd
Holywell 14/1 each way (Ladbrokes, Hills, Boyles) 2nd

Champion Hurdle - Old boy New One to roll back the years?

Faugheen needs little introduction. He's clearly a monster and would be a faultless 13/13 had he not been chinned by his stablemate Nichols Canyon when barely half fit on reappearance. He's since put things right with ruthless displays in the Christmas and Irish Champion Hurdles. In short, he'll win this race, and his price (as short as 1/4 in places) says that it's very likely too. The question is, is there any point backing something each way against him? Arctic Fire was last year's runner up and will likely run well again but he's had a funny old season and is yet to win a two mile graded race over hurdles in seven attempts. At 8/1 for the win and 2/1 in the w/o Faugheen markets I'll look elsewhere. Nichols Canyon is in his own right a very good horse, and forms the third leg of Mullins grip at the head of the Champion Hurdle market. He's in at 12/1 which just isn't enticing enough despite his record of never being out of the first three over hurdles. (when completing) Nevertheless, likely to go well. The one that did half interest me was The New One at what a couple of seasons ago would have looked a ridiculous 25/1. I certainly wouldn't have (the admittedly unexposed) Identity Thief at 14/1 with this lad sitting pretty at 25's. Yes he isn't getting any younger and yes he hangs a bit and yes he sometimes jumps right handed but he is a top class horse. His impressive record of 16 wins from 23 career starts is there for all to see and the furthest he has ever been beaten was 9 lengths. I'm not going to sit here and say he will beat Faugheen because Faugheen is a better horse than him but I do think 25/1 is a bit of an insult for a horse that has won five times at the course and who has finished a very unlucky third and a close up fifth in two stronger renewals of this race. He makes some appeal in the w/o Faugheen market at 8/1 each way as he'll only have to finish in the top four to steal a little bit of profit from this race. Even if Mullins completes an historic follow up 1-2-3 I think this lad looks likeliest to be forth. Admittedly this isn't an ideal long term betting strategy, but all I am saying is that if you really feel the need to have a small half point bet for a bit of fun then The New One in the w/o Faugheen market could be for you. My Tent Or Yours is certainly worthy of a mention. He's the forgotten horse and people forget he was only beaten a neck by Jezki in this race two seasons back. If they manage to sneak a last minute prep run into him to get a bit of freshness out of him he could well go off shorter than 25/1 on offer and there seems to be a little bit of quiet money around for him on the exchange. Overall, I'm not backing anything just yet and to be honest I likely won't, I just hope they run their races and come home safe, unlike poor Our Conor who's horror fall two years back still eats away in the memory. EDIT << With Faugheen ruled out through injury the market has been totally reshaped. The New One is now 10/1 and he still stands out a bit as a decent each way bet. Annie Power could be supplemented for this but I think quotes of 7/4 are a bit tight. This will be her toughest test to date and she will become only the third mare to ever win this race if successful. I think I'm still unlikely to back anything in this race, but if any it will be TNO for a couple of quid each way.>>

No Selection

Mares Hurdle - Third time lucky for Annie?

The market for this one on the face of it is still sorting itself out. You have Annie Power at odds on across the board and a standout 8/11 and she'll be bidding to make it third time lucky at the festival after losing out to More Of That in the World Hurdle 2014 before her devastating fall at the last with the race at her mercy in this event last year. She's the best NH mare in training, no doubt and the lack of prep run is not off putting looking at the way she tanked clear of them last year on her first run for ten months, before meeting her fate in front of the stands. You find yourself saying it a lot for these Mullins favourites, but she will be hard to beat on the day. Vroum Vroum Mag is priced between 9/4 and 8/1 but she looks likelier to head for the Ryanair so we'll ignore her for now. She does play a nice role in ensuring some bigger prices elsewhere though, for the time being at least. Glens Melody, last year's lucky winner doesn't line up which brings me on nicely to my very boring and predictable play in this race, though only a small one. Polly Peachum is still relatively lightly raced for her age but she's tough, she likes Cheltenham and she is sure to run her race again. She got nailed on the line in this race last year after looking the winner after the last and her reappearance defeat over the wrong trip can be overlooked. She returned to winning ways last time and will go there on the day with a solid chance of bringing home a good chunk of the prize money. Bitofapuzzle could have another crack at this race but ran a poor race last time and was reported to have a breathing problem. Whether that can be properly sorted in time, I have my doubts. All things considered, 16/1 is probably no more than fair. The Govaness is a huge price on the exchange so is presumably skipping the festival and Petite Parisienne may be a few points shorter if she wins at the weekend but is unlikely to be good enough to land a blow on the day. Overall, I think and hope that Annie Power will finally have the day she deserves with last year's runner up repeating the feat back in second. EDIT << VVM is now the hot favourite and Annie could be off elsewhere so the market for my selection has now disappeared and can't be backed so I have decided to remove it from this blog. >>

No Selection


National Hunt Steeplechase - Southfield to outstay them?

You are a braver man than I if you are backing Black Hercules at 4/1 and less at this stage of proceedings for the 'four miler.' He was beaten out of sight in the Albert Bartlett here last year when favourite and his recent form is fair but no more than that. With most of his form on heavy ground and doubts about the new trip, he really makes no appeal at a price you wouldn't back each way. Patrick Mullins is also very likely to be on top, and he is responsible for the worst ride in Cheltenham Festival history aboard the ill-fated Suntiep two seasons back. Okay that's probably a bit harsh but crikey it was bad. BH has a run this weekend pencilled in and a bold show could see that price contract even further, even more reason to look elsewhere. Races like this are totally wide open at this stage with many entrants having other races they could easily go for instead across the four days. One who looks more than likely to line up is the handsome white-faced Southfield Royale. He's really thrived for the step up to staying trips over fences and the signs are that he'll be heading here instead of the RSA. While like many, he has to prove himself over an extreme trip such as this, he looks every inch a thorough stayer judged by his ruthless display at Doncaster and his one-paced but keeping on second in the Grade One Feltham last time out. The form has been let down a little since but the extreme test of stamina and going left handed on a testing track like Cheltenham look as if they will suit this lad really well. 11/1 is not to be sniffed at as he may just have that touch of class that some of his likely competition may not possess. Feltham opponent Native River (14/1 for this) shaped in behind as though a test like this would really suit him and further confirmed that impression last time out at Wetherby. With this race being the obvious target, I can see why he would make some appeal at this stage for the Tizzard's who arguably have the best Festival team they have ever gone to war with. However, with the market still assembling and the final field looking hard to pin down, the young and progressive stayer Southfield Royale is the one I'll chance at the price despite the winner of this race usually being a year or two older.

Southfield Royale 11/1 each way (Bet365) 4th

Centenary Novice Chase

Killer Crow has been subject of many a postive report and Bouvreuil has supposedly had this race mapped out for him all season and these two are probably of most interest. However there is nothing that really stands out enough for me to warrant shifting some of my hard earned.

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Neptune Novices Hurdle - Is Yan worth the banker label?

My first instinct when watching Yanworth laugh at unbeaten Shantou Village on the bridle at Trials Day was 'Neptune winner.' Everything since this moment has reinforced this thought in my head. His form has been franked left right and centre and from 7/2 immediately after his romp on Trials Day he is now a best priced 5/4 for this race and you know what? That's a very fair price. He handles any ground, has won at the track and has barely come off the bridle to beat anything this season, he looks a serious weapon for the relentless Alan King yard who are having a fine season. In short, I think this is banker material for the week. I'm not the type of punter to steam into a shortie but I think this lad represents the best value of all the shorties over the four days. Whilst unbeaten, Yorkhill hasn't looked as visually impressive and his form isn't quite the level of Yanworth's and to be honest little else appeals against him so he can't be taken on. Yanworth will feature in the multiples section below and I'm putting him up as my Fez banker.

Yanworth 5/4 (Various) - Festival Banker 2nd

RSA Chase - Heroes a cut above his rivals?

At the start of the season I predicted that this race would be one of the best of the festival. With staying noce chasing prospects such as Un Temps Pour Tout, Value At Risk, Aux Ptits Soins, Minella Rocco, Robinsfirth, More Of That and No More Heroes, I thought we could be in for a mouthwatering contest come March. However a few have disappointed or suffered setbacks and ultimately the 2016 running looks to be quite an average renewal. However, a couple of those mentioned look like lining up thankfully. No More Heroes is the obvious starting point here. He went close to winning the Albert Bartlett last year but chasing was always going to be his game. He has looked faultless in his three starts over fences this season, winning Grade 1's the last twice. He may well end up being a Gold Cup horse in the next few seasons and seems well fancied for this year's RSA. The form of his last two wins is very good and he has been described as 'a cut above' the grade by far wiser men than I, which on the face of it looks a very fair thing to say. At 3/1, he makes plenty of appeal. More Of That looked to have the world at his feet when beating Annie Power here two years ago (breaking my heart in the process) but was hammered on reappearance at Newbury. He was swiftly sent chasing where he has begun to make amends, winning two from two, latterly in a three runner contest as the 1/3f. This form amounts to little compared to the favourite but this horse still has big potential and can only beat what dares to line up against him. All in all he is no more than a fair price in at 9/2 second fav but he is entered up on Saturday and what he does there is likely to effect the RSA market. Moving on and Blaklion certainly has the heart of his animal namesake. A real little fighter, he just keeps improving and keeps surprising people. His win in the Towton took his form to a new level and he appears to get on especially well with the very capable Ryan Hatch. However, he will need to improve again and his run in the Albert Bartlett last season is a little offputting, though he does have course form and is open to more improvement. Seeyouatmidnight will bid to give trainer Sandy Thomson a day to remember if he can pull it off. Beaten 12L in last year's World Hurdle, he has won really nicely on his last two starts over the bigger obstacles, including at Cheltenham when defeating a decent field including the aforementioned Blaklion. A real mud-lover, there are certianly no doubts about his stamina and he will be galloping all the way to the line. Groud without the word 'soft' in the going description would be a concern but he is well worth his place in this field and will make a bold bid to burn them all off from the front. He's lightly raced for an 8yo having just had the nine starts and you would be hopeful he may have a lot more to offer over fences. I wish Sandy and the apple of her eye the very best of luck. The final mention must go to Pont Alexandre. He's a gorgeous but funny old horse. With only six runs under his belt he is arguably open to most improvement of any and is an intriguing runner, especially at a current standout 33/1 on offer with Paddy. He had every chance last time out when making a bad mistake at the last behind Outlander (who is now toward the head of the JLT market) but was also beaten by Monksland who was hammered by No More Heroes the last time they met, showing that this lad needs to up his game. Pont's form is matched closely with Roi De Francs and there has been a bit of money around for that one but it's hard to say who looks the Mullins number one at this stage. With all of that said, I do hate being a favourite backer but simply put; No More Heroes has the best form, has shown he handles the track and looks an exciting staying chaser for the season's to come. I agree he looks a cut above his rivals at the time of writing and it's a confident bet at 3/1 unless More Of That comes out and does something spectacular at the weekend. If he doesn't, that 3/1 may not be around much longer for this lad. Gigginstown to follow up in the race they won last year with loveable rogue Don Poli for me.

No More Heroes 3/1 (Betfair SB) 4th

Coral Cup

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Champion Chase - Stage is set for Un De Sceaux to claim throne

I can already tell you the best bet for this race and that is to place lay Dodging Bullets. Now on to the contenders for the win. My admiration is no secret for the classy teraway front-runner Un De Sceaux. He is one of my favourite horses in training and has never been beaten by anything in training except the odd fence. (He even took a fall, got back up and charged past his rivals up the home straight to win riderless last time!) Despite this fact, people are still out to get him. They still say his form isn't that strong, still say he wouldn't beat a 'fully fit' Sprinter Sacre, still say he can't jump and everything else in between. His last run was arguably his best form to date, cruising clear of former Champion Chaser Sire De Grugy and the very promising but unfortunately injured Traffic Fluide. He won the Arkle last season and ever since has been a short price for this race and rightly so. 5/6 is meaty enough for me to put in a multiple or two. I backed him last year antepost at 6/1, 5/1 and 4/1for Arkle Glory - he was my 'festival banker.' At a shorter price this time around, he may be many people's idea of their 2016 banker but this time for the QMCC. It's unlikely Sire De Grugy can win another Champion Chase, but my personal highlight of the season so far was when he 'came back' in the Tingle Creek. With mixed messages coming from the Moore camp before the race, many thought it might have been game over for Sire but he came out and battled on with the heart of a lion to fend off the attentions of likely reopposer Special Tiara. At 8/1 in the w/o Un De Sceaux market he makes some appeal each way. That said I think I would rather back UDS at 5/6 for the win than play around in this market. The once invincible Sprinter Sacre continued his long ascent back towards reclaiming his throne in the 2m chasing division last time when showing he can really scrap and battle when he needs to. Rarely coming off the bridle in the glory days, the way he found for pressure last time out was something a lot of us had never really seen. If some have the luster has indeed disappeared forever, then at least we know he has a heart as well as an abundance of class. He's in at 5/1, the biggest price he has ever been over fences and in that respect he's a big price. I hope he runs a great race, he is worthy second favourite. Despite his stop-start chasing career and wayward jumping, Josses Hill has always been held in very high regard by his trainer. You get the impression he has a huge run in him somewhere and his standout performance was his fantastic 2nd in the Supreme behind Vautour in 2014. He didn't run badly at all in the Arkle last season, only beaten 8 lengths and one of these days it will all come together for him in a big race. He's out again tomorrow over the longer distance of 2m4f but his best form has been at the bare 2m and I would think it likely that this race is the preference over the Ryanair. With a smidge of 40/1 available, I can see the logic in a small each way punt or a play in the w/o UDS market as he is likely to shorten tomorrow if he is victorious. EDIT - <<After his nice win at Kempton, the Ryanair has been nominated as the likely race for him at the Festival.>> That said, to summarise, I won't be backing anything in this race against Un De Sceaux and 5/6 is a fair price. I wonder if he wins this race impressively, finally people will see him for what he really is: a champion. Probably not...

No Selection

Cross Country Chase

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Fred Winter - Fred glory for Frod?

Usually not a race I would get involved with until the day but I have had a few each way on Frodon for Paul Nicholls at this stage. This horse ran a cracker on British debut off 137 taking on some talented older horses finishing third at Cheltenham at the end of January. He travelled really well throughout and was looming large until he blew up a bit inside the last furlong or two. It was a big eye catcher of a run and with improvement very likely and the handicapper only nudging him up 1lb for that run, you would be hopeful of a bold show in this race against his age group, despite the fact he will be carrying a biggish weight with that mark. Nicholls has done very well with his entrants in this race in recent years; 1st and 2nd 2015, 2nd and 4th 2014 and 2nd and 3rd 2013. With Tommy Silver a likely runner for the yard also, he has a good chance of keeping up his good record, but my preference for this lad at this stage. EDIT << Frodon has since won and will likely now be Triumph bound. However he showed he was well handicapped so Nicholls must have something seriously well handicapped for this year.  I'll be backing whatever he runs now on the day each way and Diego Du Charmil seems to be the horse with a bit of confidence behind him. I've scrapped the multiple slip that was below and put it up without Frodon selected meaning it is now an each way trixie as well as the singles. EDIT(2) << Added the Nicholls runner Diego Du Charmil as mentioned above. >>

Diego Du Charmil 7/1 each way (Various) WINNER

Champion Bumper

Ballyandy's form is solid and not a lot of the field really stand out against. There hasn't been a great deal of hype about any of these and the NTD inmate is sure to run well. Ricci said his Turcagua was a good each way bet for this at a recent Cheltenham Preview night but it's not a race I bet in.

No Selection

JLT Novices Chase - Musketeers the play on day three opener

After writing a detailed review on this race which took a good chunk of my Sunday evening I somehow managed to delete the whole thing but these things happen so we go again! The market for this race was shaken up and reshaped when the news broke that antepost favourite Killultagh Vic was injured, promoting Bristol De Mai to favouritsm and he remains your 7/2 market leader. The grey has won his last three over fences this season, his latest run his best yet when winning a (weak) Grade 1. Despite recent form, people still haven't really warmed to the horse, myself included. I think it's because he gives the impression that he has a high cruising speed but lacks that extra gear and possibly would find little and come out worse if he really had to battle in a finish. He's dominated small fields so far and this will be a different test to try and make all. Furthermore the JLT will be his seventh run of the season and that may just tell in the closing stages up that hill where he won't be as fresh as some of his rivals. At 7/2 he is worth taking on with something each way in a race like this. Garde La Victoire looks destined to run here instead of the Arkle which seemed the plan at the start of the season and it's probably a wise move to switch. (Douvan!!) He has already beaten the favourite for this race twice when they have met before and there is a lot of blue on oddschecker for the Hobbs inmate who has won on his last three visits to Cheltenham. He's unbeaten over fences and looks to have more improvement to come. He should stay the trip no bother (won at 20f here over hurdles) and makes some appeal to the each way players. However, his novice races have lacked depth and the form of his beating of Fox Norton and Calipto in November has been let down a bit since. All in all, 12/1 is probably no more than fair and while it is very possible he can run into a place, there are stronger alternatives. Shaneshill may be one of them. I am convinced there is something lurking in this race at a mad price and this horse may just be the smoking gun. Despite his disappointing run last time out, he was only beaten a length in the Champion Bumper 2014 and ran a cracker last year to only be beaten four lengths by the unstoppable Douvan in the Supreme. That kind of form should have him near favourite in a relatively weak JLT and I think the market may have overreacted to his run last time out. While it was offputting, there were possible excuses and he shaped as though he is ready for this step up to 2m4f. 10/1 is an appealing price if they get him there on the day at a course he clearly relishes. I do think he has a good chance and I totally understand the logic behind backing him. Outlander is the other potential Mullins raider and he has sound claims if lining up. While workmanlike, he finds admirably for pressure and seems to have always been a bit underrated by most. He's 3/3 over fences, including his ultimately decisive win in the Grade 1 Flogas last time at Leopardstown, beating Monksland, Pont Alexandre and Zabana. That's pretty good form in this context and he will stay the trip really well. Fences may be the making of him and he has clearly improved for the switch to the larger obstacles. He is another that is hard to rule out in a competitive though probably below average JLT. Despite this, 6/1 doesn't scream out to me at this stage as being wildly overpriced so he won't be taking my cash. One that I have had a very small each way dabble on is the joint top rated Three Musketeers. He came on for his reappearance run/chase debut when winning the Grade 2 Berkshire Novices Chase at Newbury before running a stinker last time in the Dipper NC. That run looked too bad to be true and his trainer was quick to draw a line through that run and said one or two things had come to light and the heavy ground was another possible factor too. He travelled into the race nicely from the rear but found absolutely nil and was beaten long before his bad blunder at the last. He was the favourite for that race and had looked a high class prospect over fences before that. He is the least exposed runner in the field with only six starts under his belt and at 20/1 is worth a small each way interest as it is very likely we are yet to see the best of him. The Flemensfirth gelding looks the one runner open to most improvement and his trainer seems to hold him in very high regard. Already rated 155 after just three runs over fences, he will stay the trip really well and this race should be a perfect test for him. Just a smallish bet but a worthy one in the JLT for me.

Three Musketeers 20/1 each way (Various) 4th

Pertemps - Missed the best Approach in the Pertemps?

Cup Final landed a gamble on return from 14 months away from the track last time out at Mussleburgh. He realistically needed to win the race to get into this and considering his time away from the track, he did it nice enough. I do think the horse to take away from the race was his stablemate and last year's winner Call The Cops who was clearly just having a little day out before a potential tilt at the double, last completed by David Pipe's Buena Vista in 2010 and 2011. He'll carry a big weight but is still improving and could be up to the task. I'm looking forward to seeing him over a fence next season anyway. Unowhatimeanharry has really improved for the switch to the Harry Fry yard this season. His last run made it 4/4 for the trainer and also ensured a place in the line up for this. He's been backed and if continuing his upward curve, looks to have every chance of running a big race. Missed Approach is a very intriguing runner. His only defeat in four career starts came at the hands of my JLT pick on his final start in 2014. His reappearance run was very impressive when bolting up from a few decent horses who have advertised the form since. That run put him up to 140 which will mean a nice weight in this and probably means this horse is still well handicapped as he is still so unexposed. At 12/1 he makes some appeal and has been subject to very positive reports from his ever complimentary trainer. With better Spring ground likely to aid his cause he looks likely to go well.  At this early stage he is probably the one to have a small tickle on though this is a race to come back to once the weights are out and the line up finalised as this race is no stranger to throwing up winners at huge prices.

Missed Approach 12/1 each way (Various) Unplaced

Ryanair Chase

No Selection

World Hurdle - Stage set for Thistlecrack to confirm his dominance in staying hurdle division

Four of the current top seven in the betting look very unlikely to line up here; Annie Power, Aux Ptits Soins, Vroum Vroum Mag and Nichols Canyon. I'm not a fan of piling into short priced favourites and have never played the game like that, but the favourite Thistlecrack is one of the strongest market leaders of the week in my opinion. If in the hands of more fashionable connections, namely Mr Mullins/Ricci this horse would be more of a similar price to Douvan (4/9) and that price wouldn't be unwarranted. He has developed into the leading light of the staying hurdle division this season and dismissed theories about not liking the track with a bloodless display in the Cleeve last time out, coming away from a decent field on the bridle. He really does look a cut above his main rivals and at 11/10 is still decent value against a field that lacks real depth. He's beaten a lot of these already, namely last year's winner, Cole Harden. The apple of trainer Warren Greatrex's eye, the Westerner gelding has clearly been brought along with this race in mind all season, embarking on a very light campaign to date. He ran a very decent race behind Thistlecrack on reappearance in the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury before being outpaced in the Relkeel on New Years Day on ground that wouldn't have suited. With this horse being fresher than most and the return to 3m to suit, you will likely get a good run for your money if 8/1 tempts you to back him each way. Alpha Des Obeaux for me looks too short. While fairly impressive last time, ikt was only the second win of his career and he was earlier well beaten by progressive and exciting Prince Of Scars (20/1 for this race) Whilst rarely far away (six 2nds from nine starts) he is likely to find Thistlecrack far too hot to handle and despite his best form coming over this trip, he is opposable and doesn't offer much value in my mind. As I've just mentioned, Prince Of Scars on the face of it is a huge price in comparison though a word of warning, he was a NR the other day, and is quite a big price on the exchanges so not quite sure what's going on with him at the moment, one to keep an eye on in the coming weeks. Saphir Du Rheu went off favourite in this last year and ran a very good race to be second. He was sent chasing but that was quickly abandoned after the Hennessy despite two easy wins in novice company at odds on before that. He returned to hurdles last time out when disappointing to be a well beaten 5th in the Long Walk. He's been kept under lock and key since and Nicholls hasn't had a great year but a case can be made for this C/D winner. If you took away the favourite, this race is no stronger than last year's renewal and 16/1 is probably a few points too big. I can see some appeal in backing this horse each way, especially with recent reports of a wind op coming to light. The way to play it though is by taking some 10/1 in the without Thistlecrack market that Paddy Power are offering - that's a big price and one I can't resist throwing a couple at each way. A final mention and one I've also had a small tickle on is last year's Albert Bartlett winner Martello Tower. He ran a quiet but decent enough race in the Christmas Hurdle and the Galmoy, beaten around 10 lengths in both but showed enough to convince that he can be an each way contender here; a race he is very likely to have been primed for. We know he likes the track and he comes here after a very conservative campaign. His career record of 1411112133 (when completed) shows his consistency and at a generous 33/1 offered by Bet365, he is worthy of a small interest bet though the softer the ground the better for him. Just to be clear, despite these two little plays, I am of the belief that Thistlecrack will win the World Hurdle and is included in the multiples section below.

Saphir Du Rheu 10/1 each way w/o Thistlecrack (Paddy Power) Unplaced
Martello Tower 33/1 each way (Bet365) Unplaced

Byrne Plate - Course lover John well handicapped to strike

A minefield with 'plotjobs' galore up and down the card. One such type would be John's Spirit. A standing dish around this course, he's been running solid but quiet races all year in big handicaps, dropping a very handy 12lbs in the process bringing him into this race off a mark of 145 which is a very appealing mark. His last win here was off 147 and his staying on all too late forth in this race in 2014 was off 148. Both these efforts suggest he is going to be very dangerous off 145 and the better ground will only aid his cause (heavy last twice) Hard to be confident in a race like this as you need a lot of luck but he is my handicap each way NAP of the festival at a very meaty 20/1. Worth a decent go at each way. David Pipe's runners are always worth a second look as he's won this race three times in the last six years and Monetaire looks the yard's best hope this time around. He was sent off favourite and ran a cracker for 2nd in this last year off 138 and after two quietish runs this season has slipped back down to the same mark. He can make his presence felt and the yard record in this race means he is worth backing each way too at this stage at the same price as John's Spirit. I can easily see these two going off sub 10/1 jt favs on the day and they are the two standouts at this stage. Darna, last year's winner, will race off 4lbs higher if lining up but has only been seen the once when pulling up in the Paddy Power. He's 25/1 but no idea of his well being or their plans with him and the only back to back winner in the race's history (65 years) was The Tsarevich for Nicky Henderson in 1986. EDIT << Monetaire goes elsewhere which is very frustrating as thought he had a cracking chance here. Maybe this means David Pipe has something even better handicapped, keep an eye out on the day - a race he does well in.

Johns Spirit 20/1 each way (Various) PU

Kim Muir - Doctor Harper for Pipe/Johnson Family double?

The one that interests me here is Doctor Harper lining up off 141 for last year's winning yard and in the same colours. While having a different profile to last year's victor (younger and progressive/older and well handicapped) he looks the standout bet at this stage. A Grade 3 winner over hurdles, he has made a bright start to his chasing career. His first run was a hopeless task against L'Ami Serge before he ran well behind Garde La Victoire over what is sure to turn out to be an inadequate 2m and on ground that wouldn't have been ideal for him. He slaughtered two fairly decent novices last time out and looks to be on a nice mark stepping up in trip for this. While the new trip obviously poses a bit of a question mark, his career best run was over three miles and he gives the impression that he has been campaigned over the inadequate bare minimum to preserve his mark for a tilt at a race like this.

Doctor Harper 12/1 each way (Various) UR

Mares Novices Hurdle

No Selection

Triumph Hurdle

Zubayr is obviously of interest and there was a bit of buzz about him before his impressive debut. He's worthy favourite and should give Nick Schofield a great spin round. However I've been very reliably told from a few people that Who Dares Wins is extremely well fancied in the Alan King yard. Can forgive last run, better ground and faster pace will suit him and at 14/1 there is still a good bit of juice in the price.

Who Dares Wins 14/1 each way (Paddy/Hills)

County Hurdle - Unexposed Wait For Me well in off 139

Wait For Me looks a standout bet to me in this race off 139. He's still unexposed with only the five career runs to his name with his only defeats coming at the hands of Supreme hopeful Buveur D'Air at Newbury and Moonracer/Modus in last years champion bumper. Though unimpressive in his last couple of starts, he still won in workmanlike fashion despite some erratic jumping and him still showing signs of immaturity. With more improvement to come for his good yard, he is the one to side with at a generous 16/1 with this race confirmed as the target. EDIT << I'm also going to put up Montbazon at 25/1. His form at Cheltenham reads 343 including a 2L 4th in the 2012 Supreme and a 1L 3rd in the 2014 running of this race. Eyecatcher when very fresh back from absence last time in the same race used as a prep for this last year and with that run under his belt and a further 2lbs ease in the weights he rates a cracking each way bet off 138 at the price. >>

Wait For Me 16/1 each way (Various)
Montbazon 25/1 each way (Various)

Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle - Shantou to end Hill's unbeaten record

In my mind there has been two clear standout contenders for this race from the New Year onwards. Despite many people's 'shrewd sources' and 'definitely goes Neptune' nonsense, both Barters Hill and Shantou Village have always looked far likelier to line up in this race rather than the 2m5f contest. (Both can be backed at 20/1 for the Neptune if you have scrambled egg for brains) Ben Pauling's stable star just about held on to his unbeaten record when gamely holding off the charge of 18lbs inferior rated Ballydine last time out. He is still described as a big baby, races a bit lazily, often just about doing enough and obviously has a character to him. He is sure to continue to improve and he just keeps on winning so he is hard to knock. However, that last run may have just shown a bit of vulnerability to something top class. He has faced some decent horses but none as good as Shantou Village. The 6yo bay gelding was devastating upped in class at Cheltenham in November when scooting clear of a small but select field, including Champers On Ice who has advertised the form really well since. Shantou Village beat him again last time on Trials day when he looked a bit outpaced before coming home well to finish clear of the rest in second behind the seemingly tip-top Yanworth who has beaten everything he has faced on the bridle over hurdles. This performance suggested the step up in trip to the AB was imminent for the Mulholland novice and the market for this race agreed, squeezing him into 6/1 from 12/1 in the week or two after that run. Yanworth form is being franked everywhere you look and overall Shantou Village has better form than Barters Hill, who has never been raced at Cheltenham. It is understandable that connections of Shantou are keen to avoid Yanworth despite more solid underfoot conditions at the Festival promising to suit. With only four runs under his belt, better ground and the stiffer stamina test to suit, I really do feel this lad is a cracking bet at 6/1 vs the 5/2 fav who still must prove himself against the best novice hurdlers and who doesn't have the benefit of previous course form to his name. I already had him backed minutes after his run in late November (12/1) which I was really taken with and his run last time was further evidence to me that this trip will see him in an even better light. I think this formline is really strong and despite seemingly being held by Shantou, Champers On Ice is far too big at 33/1. He is understandably sure to be backed by the each way thieves and may even be worth a little saver. He could well take Barters Hill on for the lead which should ensure a nice end to end gallop which looks like it should suit my fancy. Despite him now being half the price I've already got him backed at, SV still rates a very good bet, I think he will go off close to favouritsm on the day, I really do. EDIT << With his jumping to come under too much pressure in the Supreme (according to Mullins) and JP McManus having Yanworth in the Neptune, Bleu Et Rouge could well end up in this race along with a few other stablemates. His Deloitte win is very solid form and he wasn't stopping at the end. He is massively unexposed and with the step up in trip potentially bringing about further improvement, I really think 25/1 is far too big for this lad and he is worth a little coverbet against my main bet in the race. >>

Shantou Village 6/1 (Various)
Bleu Et Rouge 25/1 (Betfred)

Cheltenham Gold Cup - Poli to come out on top in Gold Cup cracker

This year's Gold Cup would have been one of the best renewals in living memory if last year's winner Coneygree hadn't been ruled out with injury. Nevertheless, it still looks pretty damn good. The top five in the market are all pretty much the same price, it is totally wide open on the face of it.
The contenders:

Don Cossack - he was the highest rated chaser in training until Cue Card won the King George where this lad would have gone very close if he hadn't come down at the penultimate, though luck never been great around Cheltenham. Strong stayer and likely to run very well if staying on his feet. 9/2.

Vautour - Would have won the King George if the race was a yard shorter and Ruby said he would have done things differently if he could ride the race again. People confused 'didn't stay' with 'outstayed.' There will be stronger stayers in this field, but he probably has the most natural ability and class. Bang there but might need to battle like he has never done before up that hill. 9/2.

Djakadam - Possibly held by Don Cossack when that horse is at his best and fell last time. If none the worse, he is sure to have another good go after his excellent second in this last year when really well backed in the run up. This is a far stronger renewal though and can't imagine Ruby will choose this lad over Vautour. Opposable. 11/2.

Cue Card - Revitalised Betfair Chase and King George winner in line for a £1million bonus for connections if he wins this to land the 'Jumps Triple Crown.' Popular and classy 10yo who is in the best shape of his life. Must run another career best but not impossible and sure to bring the house down if victorious. Won the Champion Bumper and Ryanair and to he deserves to be the favourite here. 13/2.

Don Poli - Loveable rogue is one of my favourite horses in training. Strongest stayer in the field with a touch of class too. Won at the last two festivals though this is the day that will make a man of him. Usually first off the bridle but will never stop galloping, he'll be coming home best of all after becoming outpaced on the turn. 6/1.

Smad Place is also worth a mention but this looks too deep a race for him. If it was last year's field with the grey coming into it in his current form then you certainly would be tempted to back him each way at 12/1. He is sure to be a popular winner if he manages to pull it off but it will be a big achievement for him to even beat one or two of these, let alone all five.

In short, the five market leaders are a class apart and if you ran the race five different times you'd be fairly close to five different results. Nothing at bigger prices is worth considering, the winner has to come from this five and probably the second and third places too. In my mind Cue Card should be favourite and has a fantastic chance - would be great to see him win this and the £1million bonus for the popular Tizzard family and his owners. However, I'm going with heart over head as I always believe you should in life and Don Poli is my selection. He saved my 2014 festival when he won the Martin Pipe and I also had plenty on him for the RSA last year so I'm not going to desert him now on his road to Gold Cup glory. Hard to say who Bryan Cooper will ride but hopefully it's Cossack and if there is a god Davy Russell will ride this lad. While it's billed as the showpeice of the four days, recent renewals of the Gold Cup have lacked the line-up to boot, but this year it is very different. Make no mistake about it, this is going to be one hell of a Gold Cup.

Don Poli 6/1 (Various)

Foxhunters Steeple Chase

No Selection

Martin Pipe Conditional Handicap Hurdle - Qualando to peak for festival follow up

If Qualando gets in (very likely to)  he has to be the bet in this race for me at this stage. It's not a race to go mad in but last years Fred Winter winner looks well treated off 136 and he took a big step back in the right direction last time. Acts round Cheltenham, will love the better ground and with Nicholls horses starting to fire this lad looks like he could be one of the yard's best chances of the Festival. Presumably the very capable Harry Cobden will ride as he was on top last time out when narrowly beaten by the well backed Tizzard fav and 12/1 is a price that has just about enough meat left on the bones to be chewed upon.

Qualando 12/1 each way (Various)

Grand Annual - Next Sensation to double up in finale

Next Sensation has been extremely popular on social media and for good reason. He continues to be backed and is under 8/1 on the exchange and looks likely to go off favourite for the festival curtain closer. He looked the winner of this in 2014 over the last when just tiring close home to be beaten just over a length for fourth off 142 but followed up that effort by winning this race last year off 143. He's been well beaten since but is now back down to 144, a mark that connections declared they were happy with for the follow up bid. He goes straight to the festival as one of the most obvious plots of the season as has to be backed on the back of his last two efforts in the race. Eastlake is a very likely danger racing off 1lb lower than when second in this last year and Minella Present is the improving horse to also consider after his unlucky 2nd last time out over C/D. The most solid option however, is Next Sensation who can burn them all off from the front to follow up last year's success in the finale.

Nex Sensation 12/1 each way (Boyles/BetVictor)


All Selections

I've rated the following from one to three stars to give you an idea of my thinking behind each one. One being a small chancy outsider bet, two being a solid bet, three being a very confident selection.

Supreme - Tombstone 16/1 each way (Ladbrokes) **
Festival H'Cap - The Young Master 20/1 each way (Paddy Power) **
Festival H'Cap - Holywell 14/1 each way (Ladbrokes, Hills, Boyles) **
NH Steeple Chase - Southfield Royale 11/1 each way (Bet365) **
Neptune - Yanworth 5/4 (Various) *****
RSA - No More Heroes 3/1 (Betfair SB) ***

Fred Winter - Diego Du Charmil 7/1 each way (Various)
JLT - Three Musketeers 20/1 each way (Various) *
Pertemps - Missed Approach 12/1 each way (Various) *
WH - Saphir Du Rheu 10/1 each way w/o Thistlecrack (Paddy Power) *
WH - Martello Tower 33/1 each way (Bet365) *
Byrne Plate - Johns Spirit 20/1 each way (Various) ***
Kim Muir - Doctor Harper 12/1 each way (Various) **
Triumph - Who Dares Wins 14/1 each way (Paddy/Hills) **

County Hurdle Wait For Me 16/1 each way (Various) **
County Hudle Montbazon 25/1 eacy way (Various) **
Albert Bartlett - Shantou Village 6/1 (Various) ***
Albert Bartlett - Bleu Et Rouge 25/1 each way (Betfred) **
Gold Cup - Don Poli 6/1 (Various) **
Martin Pipe - Qualando 12/1 each way (Various) **
Grand Annual - Next Sensation 12/1 each way (Boyles/BetVictor) **

Results:

42342414000PUU004F300

Winners: 7/1

Placed: 11/1, 14/1, 20/1, 16/1

Singles LSP at 1pt win and 0.5pt ew: -3.37pts


Banker: Yanworth - 2nd
NAP: No More Heroes - 4th 
NB: Shantou Village - Unplaced
E/W NAP: John's Spirit - PU
E/W NB: Next Sensation - Unplaced


Handicap selections:

Festival Handicap - The Young Master 20/1 3rd
Festival Handicap - Holywell 14/1* 2nd

Fred Winter - Diego Du Charmil 7/1 WINNER
Pertemps - Missed Approach 12/1 Unplaced
Byrne Plate - Johns Spirit 20/1 PU
Kim Muir - Doctor Harper 12/1 UR
County Hurdle - Montbazon 25/1 UR
County Hurdle - Wait For Me 16/1* 4th
Matin Pipe - Qualando 12/1 Unplaced
Grand Annual - Next Sensation 12/1 Unplaced

The * next to the name represents the stronger fancy where there are two selections in one race.


Multiples

Banker/NAP/NB trixie:

Pays 45/1. - Lost


Arkle - Douvan - 1st
Neptune - Yanworth - 2nd
QMCC - Un De Sceaux - 2nd
World Hurdle - Thistlecrack - 1st
RSA - No More Heroes - 4th
Albert Bartlett - Shantou Village - Unplaced

Trebles, 4folds, 5folds, 6 fold.

Pays 208/1. - Lost


Retirement fund each way handicap yankee (1) :

Festival H'Cap - The Young Master 3rd
Byrne Plate - Johns Spirit PU
Kim Muir - Doctor Harper UR
Grand Annual - Next Sensation Unplaced

Pays 47,123/1.


Retirement fund each way handicap yankee (2) :

County Hurdle - Wait For Me 4th

Pertemps - Missed Approach Unplaced

Byrne Plate - Johns Spirit PU

Grand Annual - Next Sensation Unplaced

Pays 60,332/1.


Retirement fund each way handicap yankee (3) :

County Hurdle - Montbazon UR
Grand Annual - Next Sensation Unplaced
Kim Muir - Doctor Harper UR
Martin Pipe - Qualando Unplaced

Pays 48,333/1.


Retirement fund each way handicap yankee (4) :

County Hurdle - Wait For Me 4th
Festival Handicap - Holywell 2nd
Martin Pipe - Squouateur
Byrne Plate - Johns Spirit PU

Pays 28,610/1.


Each Way handicap Trixie (1) :

Triumph - Who Dares Wins Unplaced
Martin Pipe - Squouateur Unplaced
Fred Winter - Diego Du Charmil WINNER

Pays 727/1.


Each Way handicap Trixie (2) :

Pays 4334/1.

Preview Evening Notes

Thursday 25th February - Paddy Power Preview Evening:

Panel: Sir Anthony McCoy (AP), Ruby Walsh (RW), Noel O'Brien (Irish Snr H'capper - NOB).

AP - Weak Supreme, Supasundae good each way chance.
RW - Min is a good thing to kick off the festival.
AP - Yanworth hard to beat and fancies him for the race.
RW - Yorkhill could run but both him and Willie afriad of Yanworth.
NOB - Yanworth outstanding.
RW - Long Dog a fair bit better than Bachasson.
RW - Myska the only thing that could get close to Limini.
AP - Douvan special, RW concurs.
AP - Thinks More of That will win the JLT. 'Bombproof.'
NOB - Facies Outlander, RW confirms he runs here instead of RSA or anywhere else.
RW - More of That 2nd best novice in training behind Douvan, wins wherever he runs.
RW - No More Heroes is beatable, Roi Des Francs good ew alternative.
RW - No standout in Champion Bumper. Augusta Kate is decent but fillies have poor record in race.
AP - Aspen Colorado far from a certain runner.
AP - Cup Final, If In Doubt and Doctor Harper his main three handicap fancies.
NOB - Leave at Dawn big chance after eyecatching run last time.
RW - Likes Children's List, Clondaw Warrior, Blazer, PFN's 2 unraced French horses in Fred Winter.
RW - No Decision on Annie Power yet. Only runs in CH if VVM is in top shape for Mares Hurdle.
RW - Annie not as good as Fly or Faugheen but has enough ability to win weak renewal like this.
AP - My Tent Or Yours in good shape, puts up Nichols Canyon as his bet for Champion Hurdle.
RW - Felix Younger a good ew bet in QMCC but UDS wins if he jumps.
AP - Felix Younger ew shout, UDS hard to beat, Dodging Bullets needs a transformation to compete.
RW - Ryanair weakest race of the festival. Fancies Smashing, Road To Riches too slow.
NOB - Likes Al Ferof, AP fancies Smashing each way like Ruby,
RW - Going to desperately try and persuade Ricci/Mullins to run Vautour in the Ryanair.
AP - Thistlecrack the banker of the meeting.
RW - Prince of Scars better value than Alpha Des Obeaux. Aux Ptits Soins he likes.
RW - Vroum Vroum Mag will definitely not run in the World Hurdle.
AP - Sceau Royale the pick of the brits for the Triumph. Panel agrees it's a weak renewal.
RW - Not decided on Gold Cup ride, will make mind up when they both work at the Curragh one week before.
AP - Vautour not a strong enough stayer, fancies Don Cossack.
RW - Puts up reverse forecast Djakadam/Vautour Gold Cup and Limini/Min/Douvan treble.
AP - More Of That in whatever race he runs in.
AP - Modus likely to go to the County Hurdle.
AP - MTOY will run a big race in the Champion Hurdle but acknowledges it's a huge ask to win.


Thursday 3rd March - Betbright Cheltenham Preview Evening:

Panel: Rich Ricci (RR), Sam Twiston Davies (STD), Paul Kealy (PK), Matt Chapman (MC).

Altior one of the best Nicky has sent to the Supreme for many years, RR points out that he hasn't won it in 24 years.
RR - Min  is our best novice, not as good as Douvan but could be as good as Vautour.
Panel agrees Min will be a bigger price on day and best to wait if you fancy him. Henderson supposedly bullish about Altior and these two beginning to make the market a little bit. Min rated 152, Altior 154.
RR - Douvan something very special, big unit, still improving, best we've ever had.
RR - Thinks Douvan would beat Un De Sceaux if they ran against eachother in the QMCC.
RR - When Faugheen ruled out of Champion Hurdle, entering Douvan did cross his mind.
Vaniteux supposedly schooled incredibly well that morning, one of the best Henderson has ever sent to the Arkle.
PK - Sizing John 4/1 in the w/o Douvan market is 'amazing value.'
Garde La Victoire very likely to run in the JLT. Panel all fancy each way.
Think More of That JLT talk was nonsense, if Jonjo had his way he would be in Gold Cup cause he rates him that highly. Panel agree he is one to beat in RSA except PK who is a long term No More Heroes fan and thinks he has less to prove.
MC - Amazed Yanworth not supplemented for the Champion Hurdle.
RR - Likes Long Dog, tries hard, disappointed if doesn't make the frame though admits Yanworth looks very tough to beat.
MC - Barters Hill the Don Poli of the hurdle world.
Panel generally against him for the AB. Bleu et Rouge popular each way, out and out stayer, serious price.
RR - Thomas Hobson has some flat speed and class, MC says he cant jump.
PK - Likes Shantou Village on better ground and upped in trip, BH hurdling not improved, clumsy.
RR - Thomas Hobson will run a huge race, been schooling intensively and seemed very confident.
More of That put up as one of the bts of the week for the RSA by Irish Expert.
STD - Schofield on Zubayr, Bowen on Frodon, STD likely to ride Clan Des Obeaux after working better than Dodging Bullets at home that morning, says wouldn't take much to switch to Connetable mind.
STD - Diego Du Charmil the bet of the week in the Fred Winter. Nicholls happy with mark and saved him for this race. Worked all over other juveniles at an early season racecourse gallop including Frodon who he came clear of.
PK - Who Dares Wins to go well, better ground and faster pace to suit, quietly fancied.
Panel agree that Ivan Gorb is a terrible price. Won maiden, slammed up in grade and somehow still favourite for the Triumph.
STD - Dad's best chance of a winner is Bristol De Mai. May need it a tad softer but take some passing from the front.
STD - Bouvreuil been laid out for novice chase on day one all season. Nicholls runners always to be feared when targeting a specific race.
RR - Adamant that Annie in the CH is not a done deal. He has to be 100% happy with Vroum Vroum Mag in the days leading up before he'll supplement Annie.
STD - TNO unlucky 2014, bad prep 2015, this year he is as good as ever and couldnt possibly be in better shape. If he finishes 3rd then that's as good as he is now and will never be better,
STD - Chose Saphir Du Rheu because he's been there and done it and had a much more straightforward prep than Aux Ptits Soins who has had lots of training problems.
Nicky Henderson has apparently said that Whisper is his best chance of a festival winner in the World Hurdle. In sensational form and thinks he'll run a huge race.
RR - Great for racing if Sprinter Sacre wins the Champion Chase. (applause)
PK - UK horses not good enough, UDS in a different league for the QMCC.
STD - Dodge in good form and stays the trip really well, will like the strong pace but obviously must improve massively for comeback.
RR - Not seeing the usual spark from Vautour at home in recent weeks but stresses it was the same last year and he suddenly picked up again just before the festival. Stresses he runs in the Gold Cup or stays at home in his box.
Panel agrees that Road To RIches is the one to beat in a weak Ryanair that will cut up, prob go off clear fav.
Ruby is convinced on good-soft or better that Vautour will stay and have an outstanding chance of winning the Gold Cup.
RR - refuses to answer who he prefers of his two GC runners despite persistent questioning but later sides with Vautour as his pick for the race.
PK/MC - Supreme winners don't win Gold Cups.
RR - Djakadam not schooled since his fall and the next time he leaves the ground will be the first fence in the Gold Cup.
STD - Would ride Vautour if he had the choice of any runner in the race.
RR - Turcagua has a very good each way chance in the bumper. Also says Kalkir misses the festival with injury.
MC - Gordon Elliot thinks Desoto County chucked in for the County Hurdle. Killer Crow was put away and wrapped up after been given 136 by the h'capper. Great chance of 136 in the Nov Hcap Chase day 1.
MC - Hobbs told him his best chances were Kruzhlinin, Rock The Kasbah, If in Doubt but especially Wait for Me in the County Hurdle.
PK - Fancies Fingal Bay in race 3 day 1. Good ground, fences what he wants, 2/3 Chelt, 20/1 huge.
Irish expert says Leave At Dawn and Squoateour very well in. Former has sole entry and course form, thinks later could be punted in to a short priced fav closer to the time.
RR - Festival NAP is a banker treble of Limini, VVM and Douvan. Adds Annie for the fourfold.
PK - Festival NAP is Altior.
MC - Festival NAP is Yanworth.
STD - Diego Du Charmil but also mentions looking forward to riding Ballyandy.


Hope you enjoyed the read, give us a shout on Twitter @THTRacing and let me know your thoughts.

THT