The blog is back as I feel I have been a bit lazy recently and I know a lot of people appreciate explanations for the selections. If you like the look of any of these then best of luck to you and thankyou for taking the time to read our thoughts!
JACK OF DIAMONDS is a horse I am a great admirer of as my long term Twitter followers know. He is a horse of massive potential and I expect him to be winning plenty of races this season and is very much my main horse to follow whether he wins today or not. However I am very confident today despite a short priced favourite up against him. His trainer rates him very highly and expect to see this horse in much stronger races than this, this season. He finished a close up second on his reappearance after a 5 month break and went very well flying home late but just failing to catch the winner after suffering bad luck in running with the jockey having to haul him back and switch him outside well inside the final couple of furlongs which scuppered his chances. He will have come on for that run and has the fitness edge over most of these with the recent run under his belt. This race is weaker than the one he contested in last time and Robert Winston is back in the saddle today of which he is 1/2 on the horse, the other run a close up second on a surface he had never been tried on before (fibresand), beating some subsequent winners in the process. When you consider that this horse has finished 3 lengths off the pace in a class 2 race early in his career and just a neck off the pace in a class 3 after a 5 month break and for the other reasons mentioned, he begins to look a very appealing proposition indeed in a weakish class 4 at what looked a massive 9/2. He has been heavily backed and I first mentioned him much earlier today when he was 5/1 and I only managed to get 9/2 myself but he is best priced 4/1 at the time of writing but 3/1 and shortening in other places, so if you are going to back this horse, get on ASAP! The short priced favourite has also recieved some market support and all the money is coming for these two, in fact around 85% of the total money has been for just these two runners so it looks a two horse race. Net Whizz has only been right handed around A/W tracks in his short career and has already been beaten at prices of 5/6 and 13/8. He is however, open to plenty of improvement and obviously rates the main danger with Ryan Moore in the saddle for Jeremy Noseda but would not be taking 6/4 about him for this one. Saying that a few C and D winners in the race may prove good value and could get competitive. Come on Jack! (19.25 Lingfield) NAP
SCEPTICISM is worth another chance in my eyes. He has finished second the last twice which is off-putting, but having faith in yourself and horses you back is what it is all about. I backed him two races ago where he came 2nd at 6/1 but left him last time as I thought he was priced on the short side. Despite nicking 5 lengths out of the field he was caught inside the final furlong and probably went too hard under Joe Fanning in the early stages. He has been stepped back in trip slightly today which looks as if it will suit down to the ground as he weakened when he got lonely last time inside the final few hundred yards. Silvestre de Sousa also takes the ride for the first time so the in form Mark Johnston clearly means business and 7/2 looks a more than fair price for a horse whose turn must be right around the corner. Scepticism is usually prominently ridden and SDS is fantastic from the front; he judges pace really well. He is drawn 6 which isn't ideal but it could be worse and this looks the only concern in a race that he looks set out to win. (19.55 Lingfield) NB
DIOCLES has a tough task to overcome Sleep in First in the 4.10 Kelso tomorrow though I fancy him to end SIF's prolific run as he makes his handicap debut after a small break for the McCain yard who are slowly coming back to form after a quiet start to the year. I think he has shown enough in novice company to warrant a lot of respect off a potentially fair mark despite the fact he is giving a few pounds to the penalised Sleep in First. Jason Maguire won 4 races on Sunday and has a 43% strike rate for the owners of this horse and at the biggest price this horse has ever been available at, looks worth a small bet. 11/2.
STRIKER TORRES is worth a small bet as he is on a winning mark and drops to lowly 0-60 grade for the first time in his long career. Graham Lee in the saddle is certainly no negative and some past form suggests he will go well fresh, back from a four month break for this one. The favourite is getting all the money but at 6/1 ST is worth a small e/w stake as he should go close today and will be winning again soon. (Wolves 13.50)
I was at the races when ROCK SONG took my eye in the paddock after a long break, trying a new trip for his new trainer. He looked glorious and for some reason I didn't back him, knowing in my mind he was one of the best looking horses I had seen for some time. He took his time but got the hang of things beating some improving horses by nailing them all late on, to my displeasure! He will have come on for that run and Graham Lee returns for the ride in what looks a similar looking race, maybe slightly stronger this time but he can improve again and follow up as he will be sharper after his nice win over C and D two weeks ago; looks a very fair price too. (Wolves 15.20)
Despite being outsider of the field in a strong race I can;t ignore the fact that MIDNIGHT DREAM looks a massive price at 33/1. He can be forgiven his last run on turf on softer ground he wouldn't have liked against stronger opposition. (Fallon on board too!) His C and D form reads 222 losing out by 1L, 1/2L and a nose on those occasions. His other run at Wolves resulted in him winning over a trip a few hundred yards shorter than today's and his big price looks mad to me. I expect him to receive some e/w support and go off shorter than this but would be nice if he drifted! A strong race, yes, but forgiving his last run, he is far from a no hoper here and could spring a big shock, in terms of prices anyway. (16.50 Wolves)
IRONS ON FIRE is my final selection on Monday. (Lingfield 18.55) He went close last time on stable debut leading for most of the race until two got past in the final furlong. He responded well in the hood and is now running off a career-low mark and looks ready to strike, especially with Ryan Moore booked for the ride. Two of his three wins have been at this track and he is only one of two course winners in this weak yet open race, and he looks the one to be on at 3/1.
Overall:
NAP: Jack Of Diamonds @ 9/2
NB: Scepticism @ 7/2
NAP and NB double @ 23/1
Singles (small stakes advised):
Diocles @ 11/2 e/w
Striker Torres @ 6/1 e/w
Rock Song @ 11/2
Midnight Dream @ 33/1 e/w
Irons On Fire @ 3/1
Longshot e/w Double (small stake advised):
Diocles and Striker Torres @ 44.5/1
Lucky 15:
Jack Of Diamonds, Scepticism, Rock Song, Irons on Fire.
Returns £1473 for a £1 win stake.
Good Luck all, tell us what you think and tell us your fancies @THTRacing on twitter.
THT
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