Every jumps season revolves around Cheltenham, and from day one we are looking for horses with realistic prospects of winning at Prestbury Park come March. Some horses won't make it, some will, others will end up being a disappointment, a few will impress but then there's that one that gives you that feeling. That feeling that this horse could be anything; when you think you have seen something special. Immediately he or she goes into the notebook for Cheltenham and you have a browse of the ante-post markets in the likely race (if that is your thing) and see a price three times what you expected. You place your bet and now you wait the long wait every AP punter has to endure every year.
I have seen a few performances that have given me this feeling in my gut this year. While not a big ante-post player myself, I understand why people love it. It takes patience (which I have a frustrating lack of) but you have to be prepared to be very disappointed and frustrated. I have had one or two AP plays this season myself, but nothing major.
Will first go through my confident bets in detail, then post some others I fancy, then throw in a few dark horses to keep an eye out for throughout the four days too.
Let's get started.
Supreme Novices Hurdle
The Supreme will kick off the Festival with the famous loud cheer from the Cheltenham terraces. The race is always run at a breakneck gallop over a distance of just over 2m. Last year My Tent Or Yours who this year lines up in the Champion Hurdle was the well fancied favourite for JP McManus, Jonjo O'Neill and AP McCoy in those famous colours. Champagne Fever however was quietly fancied in Ireland and the money arrived by the bucket-load on the morning of the opening race. The grey gamely made all and despite MTOY looking all over the winner when cruising upsides before the last, the brave grey dug in and repelled the McCoy drive; the rest is history. This year he goes for the Arkle, the very next race on the card.
This years Supreme looks as exciting as ever, with some really nice prospects lining up. Irving will be many peoples' idea of the winner as he is unbeaten for Paul Nicholls over hurdles and looks a very smart horse. He is flat bred and has bags of speed - a fascinating contender, especially when you consider he is said to need better ground which he looks likely to get here. That said he hasn't really faced a testing track like Cheltenham just yet. Vautour is the main market rival and was impressive when merely being pushed out to beat odds on shot The Tullow Tank who now doesn't run here due to the Fenton scandal that has come to light. TTT could be a very smart horse so Vautour has to be taken seriously, though at as short as 5/2 would certainly not be for me. Josses Hill is another with good claims and Alan King's smart flat recruit, First Mohican at 33/1 could outrun those odds. The apparent WPM second string also is one to keep an eye on, money has started to arrive for Wicklow Brave and one to keep very much on side. The forgotten horse, however could be The Liquidator, who can put a poor run behind him and might run a big race at 25/1. He has already shown a liking for Cheltenham and can be excused his last run. Not one to rule out, despite the fact his trainer faces a race against time to have him ready.
Stats:
Worth pointing out no favourite or joint favourite has won this race since 2004. Six of the last nine winners have been priced at double figure odds. Irish entrants have a strong record in this race and most winners have shown good form in large fields while being lightly raced. Fourteen of the last sixteen winners won their last race. Eleven of the last thirteen winners had raced at least once in the last 45 days.
I have to say, the way Irving quickened lto to put the race to bed after making a hash of the last really stayed with me - was very impressive and has a great chance but is probably too short now for me, especially as there are one or two niggling doubts. The Liquidator interests me e/w but not as much as my selection for this race, 100/1 shot Un Ace. The way this highly regarded horse travelled on debut for Kim Bailey was very notable and he always looked the winner. That was until a bad mistake 3 out where he pecked on landing and lost all momentum. However, he quickly picked up the bridle and came clear with ease after the last in taking fashion. The strong pace here will suit this horse down to the ground and he could be making up ground late on as they tire ahead. Yes he didn't beat much and he can't afford to make mistakes in this race but if he lines up he could throw a spanner in the works at huge odds as he is a horse with bags of potential.
Selection: UN ACE 100/1 ew
Preview evening notes:
Vaniteux was very well fancied by the panel and Henderson stable jockey Andrew Tinkler opted for Vaniteux as opposed to stablemate Josses Hill. They noted however that the race hasn't always been the intended target, yet money has started to arrive in the past few days or so and he is fancied at home. Most of the panel agreed that Vaniteux will start a single figure price, with suggestions of 6/1-7/1 SP. It was confirmed that Barry Geraghty is likely to ride the horse and Andrew Tinkler made the horse his e/w bet of the festival. For what it's worth Rory nominated Wilde Blue Yonder as his e/w fancy of the race.
Arkle
The Arkle, like the Supreme, is run at a furious pace with a huge emphasis on jumping technique. Market leaders traditionally perform well in this race and always worth keeping an eye on both Alan King and Nicky Henderson horses as both trainers have a good record in this race. Last year the grey Simonsig held off a mighty run from Mouse Morris's Baily Green who looked the winner up the run in when closing him down until the odds on grey asserted close home under Geraghty to win in workmanlike fashion.
Another grey, and current favourite Champagne Fever will be fancied by many to take this year's crown. The horse loves Cheltenham, and as already mentioned is very game and brave but I think there is a big question mark over his jumping, as shown last time when being well beaten by both Trifolium and Defy Logic. The aforementioned Trifolium is an exciting contender for me here. He jumps well, has strong form and there is definitely more to come. He likes Cheltenham too, as shown when 3rd in the Supreme in 2012, just a neck behind the ill fated Darlan and a length or two behind the Donald McCain trained winner. 6/1 a great price I think. Rock On Ruby is one I fancied for a long time and have backed ante-post at a fair price. That said this field looks competitive enoug and he can't afford to make novicey errors though will get his ground. Another worth a mention is Valdez. I love this horse and his big white face and he looks a fair price at 10/1. Alan King who, as mentioned, has a good record in this, is putting enormous faith in him as Kingy's other 2m chasing star Balder Succes will miss Cheltenham. BS put in a rousing jumping display and won with a good bit in hand last time and is very much a horse to follow.
Stats:
Eight of the last ten winners came from the first three in the market. Eight of the last ten winners won their last race. Only two of the last ten favourites have won the race. Nine of the last ten winners aged between 5 and 7. The last eight winners were either first or second in their last three races.
Not one that really stands out for me at a bigger price here and I have already backed Rock On Ruby AP but Trifolium is my selection for Arkle glory. 6/1 looks a very fair price all things considered and I think this horse is still improving. He jumps well, has course form and surely will put up a bold bid. Valdez would be a danger too and I may have a little multi-tricast on the morning on the three mentioned. It's Cheltenham after all! ;-)
Selection: TRIFOLIUM 6/1
Preview evening notes:
Jumping doubts about Champagne Fever but Tinkler says horse deserves to be favourite. Trifolium touted as the wise man's bet of the race. Tony Calvin says Rock on Ruby was never seen as a chaser by Paul Nicholls, the horse has had his breathing issues and at the age of 9, is too short at current price. Ted Veale was Dan Skelton's ew fancy in the race, but each panellist put up a different horse for the race, showing the competitive nature of this year's renewal.
Champion Hurdle
Being dubbed the race of the meeting and for good reason. It looks an absolute belter of a race. The line up is mouthwatering. Reigning champ Hurricane Fly, Twiston Davies stable star The New One, the strong travelling My Tent Or Yours, Our Conor who demolished his rivals in the Triumph last year, the forgotten horse Jezki, as well as Melodic Rendezvous amongst others. What. A. Line-up. Would have been even better with Annie Power but she goes for the World Hurdle (more on that later!)
Last year loyal Hurricane Fly backers had their hearts in their mouths at one stage but the wonder horse who has an astonishing amount of Grade One's to his name showed his bravery running out a comfortable enough winner in the end from Rock on Ruby who made a brave effort from the front. His big heart shone that day and despite people rubbishing the Fly's Grade One victories ("hardly a grade one, only beaten three average handicappers blah blah blah") he has the heart of a lion and is a fantastic beast. By the way if he is beaten this year and the haters come out again, just remind them of the dark day last year at the festival when they layed the Fly with their entire Chelt fund, that will shut them up :-)
This year he lines up again, and is in flying form as ever, twice beating the re-opposing Our Conor and Jezki. As for My Tent Or Yours, you can argue all day and give me all the reasons under the sun why he will go well but let me tell you this. He will not win, he is not good enough, end of. While I admire the horse, I just can't see he has the class to win a Champion Hurdle, especially with a stellar line up like this against him. Nope, not for me at all. I am a huge fan of The New One too and he could come second or third but not my idea of the winner either. Despite blundering the last and throwing the race, he was disappointing last time as I thought he would have the class to recover and get back up. However, he will likely get a good gallop here which will suit down to the ground and should run a big race. Jezki has enough questions to answer and despite the enticing price, hard to think he is good enough though there are one or two bits of money around for him with the MTOY injury scare coming to light. Interesting too that Captain Cee Bee has been supplemented for the race.
Stats:
Only four winners over the age of eight since 1951. 25 of last 30 won their last race. 18 of last 24 had won at Cheltenham before. Irish won 9 of last 15. Two of last seven favourites won. Only one five year old won in 29 years.
The one I strongly fancy for this, despite his young age is Our Conor. While admittedly, the price is skinny in the context of this race, I was really taken with his last run behind the Fly. He travelled so so well throughout the race and took over just after the last. However the Fly dug deep and his big heart won him the day getting back up close home but OC will have again come on for that and remember nothing has ever beaten the Fly at Leopardstown. OC also loves Cheltenham. Undoubtedly the most impressive performance of the 2013 festival was Our Conor's humiliation of his rivals, bounding away on the bridle loving every second of it to win by 15 odd lengths. A performance that truly took the breath away. You can ignore his reappearance run this season because he 'looked like a hairy goat' and was badly in need of the run. Also, he is a superb jumper of hurdles, which you have to be to win a Champion Hurdle. Dessie Hughes will have him 100% race fit this time and I think he will run a mighty race; the young kid on the block (remember he is only a 5yo - hugely exciting animal!) can teach his more experienced rivals a lesson, at the main expense of the grand old boy, Hurricane Fly. Will be a cracking race either way and I can't wait.
Selection: OUR CONOR 9/2
Festival Preview Notes:
Most of the panel seemed to be on the MTOY/TNO formline but all admit that race is an appalling betting proposition. General consesus is that Hurricane Fly is the one they all have to beat. Tony Calvin makes very good point about Our Conor. Horse was massively weak in market in last race, available at 7/1-8/1 on exchanges and massively outran his market expectations. Suggests that he will improve and Dessie will have him 100% ready on the day, his tentative selection for the race. Tinkler sings MTOY praises, little made of injury scare and is his idea of the winner.
Neptune
The New One was victorious in this race last year, staying on well in the final furlong to win in cosy fashion after taking up the running just before the last. Mullins' Pont Alexandre was many people's idea of banker of the whole four day meeting but ultimately disappointed back in third place at short odds.
Faugheen is the place to start in this. The gelding is unbeaten for Mullins, winning four races from four attempts, all in quite taking fashion. Looks a smart horse indeed though lacks substantial high class form for me, especially at the unappealing price of 11/4 at time of writing. Needs to show he can mix it in top class races and he may well do, but for me is worth finding something with a meatier price, especially as there are one or two concerns over his jumping. Red Sherlock may just be the answer here. What still looks a generous 6/1, a flawless six from six, the chestnut looks well worth a punt. Has course form too, last time winning the trial by 3L from the well touted Rathvinden. That is solid form. The one I see as a viable ew player is Royal Boy who is priced at 14/1 at the time of writing. Just under a length behind Melodic Rendezvous on debut here at Chelt, this horse has since gone on to win the Tolworth Hurdle, beating his better fancied stablemate Josses Hill in the process. His stamina told that day and going back up in trip will be no problem, and does look good value here at the odds.
Stats:
Only two of the last twenty-four winners weren't aged five or six. Nine of the last ten winners finished first or second last time out. Nine out of the last ten winners had won over at least 2m4f over hurdles. Eight out of the last ten have finished first or second in all completed hurdle races.
Have backed two for this myself as mentioned. Firstly David Pipe's unbeaten Red Sherlock. Course form is so important at Cheltenham and he also has more experience in better races than the market leader. Still think the price is generous, you can even profit backing ew at this stage should he only manage a place. Royal Boy has also taken some of my cash e/w. That Tolworth hurdle form over a trip on the sharp side looks strong, stepping back up will suit this horse and has to be a big each way player at the very least. 14/1 looks big and not sure how long that will last as the money is starting to arrive.
Selection: RED SHERLOCK 6/1 and ROYAL BOY 14/1 ew
Preview evening notes:
Andrew Tinkler seemed very optimistic about Royal Boy's chances and suggested that the now deflated price of 7/1 still represents good ew value. Rory has backed Faugheen and Tony Calvin has had his biggest bet in the race in the shape of Un Temps Pour Tout and makes him his e/w bet of the festival. Red Sherlock got a good mention and Lydia really likes Sure Reef for the Coral Cup but he takes his place here instead.
RSA
The competitors who line up in this are all coming to the end of their first season over fences and this race can be their stepping stone to great things as shown by Denman in 2007. The race is over 3m and is one of the more testing races of the festival. Last year Lord Windermere took advantage of a tumbling fall at the death from Boston Bob, who looked to have the race at his mercy. LW held off the late challenge of Lyreen Legend to win by just over a length. A fortunate winner, and the horse hasn't done much since, being well beaten in three graded starts since his RSA triumph.
This year looks a particularly tricky renewal with no obvious winner jumping out of the card. However, one horse I have been waiting for all season is Gordon Elliot's tank of a horse, Don Cossack. The German bred seven year old is an absolute beast, if you are at Cheltenham go and see this horse in the paddock, has a massive presence about him. Ballycasey will start likely favourite but in a race of this competitive nature he really is too short. Annacotty deserves a special mention, one we have followed all year and Corrin Wood certainly looks a player while Many Clouds for me is a bit of a dark horse.
Stats:
The last thirteen winners all ran at least three times over fences. Only two six year olds have won the RSA since 1978. The last three favourites to have won were rated at least 134 over hurdles. The Irish have only won four RSA's since 1985 but those four have all been in the last ten years Seven year olds have won eight of the last ten renewals, including the last seven in a row. 24 of the last 25 winners had either won or been second on their last run.
As I say, Don Cossack is the one I have been waiting for. Going up to 3m for the first time is sure to suit and he should run a big race, at a price too, still 16/1 widely available. Corrin Wood interests me but a tad short in context now for me to really be interested. That said, another horse I simply have to back is Annacotty. The horse improved 22lbs in just three months, as well as giving trainer, jockey and owner their first Grade 1 success when dotting up in the Feltham winning very impressively, especially considering he was the lowest rated horse in the field. That is very strong form, and going back up to 3m will suit this front runner down to the ground. There could even be more to come as he is only a 6yo and he has experience at Cheltenham, a valuable asset which some competitors don't possess, most notably the current favourite. Despite having a key stat against him (age), he looks a likely player. Rule Annacotty out at your peril.
Selection: DON COSSACK 16/1 ew and ANNACOTTY 20/1 ew
Preview evening notes:
Rory says Corrin Wood is being well backed but needs softer ground. Smad Place is Stan James biggest loser in the book. Rory tips up Carlingford Lough ew. Lydia thinks Le Bec is still a massive price and there were doubts expressed about Sam Winner's right trip - connections not sure whether he wants 3m or 4m. Stat mentioned that the last 50 winners had run in the same calendar year. This rules out Morning Assembly. Smad place nominated as the classiest horse in the race, however his confidence and attitude questioned. Dan Skelton puts in a very good word for Many Clouds at a price and everyone against Ballycasey - big deal made of schooling fall.
Champion Chase
Was disappointed like all true racing fans but also very surprised when Nicky Henderson announced that the wonderful Sprinter Sacre was to miss this year's festival. Obviously the heart issue was a lot more serious that some people thought and the right decision has been made for the safety and well being of the horse. Hope to see him back on the track soon and back to his glorious best here again next year. Sprinter Sacre's absence now opens this year's race right up.
Stats:
Biggest price winner since 2000 was 16/1. Only three double figure price winners in last thirteen years. Eleven of the last fourteen winners were 5/1 or less. 21 of the last 28 winners had been previously placed at the Festival. Only five favourites won in last sixteen years.
While Sire De Grugy is a very good horse, he is not my idea of a Champion Chase winner. He much prefers running the other way and his runs here have been disappointing, no not for me, especially at 7/4. Benefficient is one of great interest. Last year's Jewson winner bounced right back to form last time and is a horse with class. He stays 2m very well too. A more interesting contender at the price for me, however is Module. Backed him last time when winning gamely from the Arkle contender, Dodging Bullets. He was headed but his stamina told, and he got back up close home. Staying the 2m well is very important at Chelt. He ran a very good race here last year too, not far behind the previously mentioned Benefficient. Everything happened a bit quickly for him and when the penny finally dropped it was too late. However, at 16/1 he looks well worth an ew play to me if ridden a bit handier and with another year's experience under the belt.
Selection: MODULE 16/1 ew
Preview evening notes:
Rory says Sire De Grugy the one to back by default. Baily Green being well backed and Alderwood has been ruled out for the entire festival. Kid Cassidy likely to place due to the likely way he will be ridden says Lydia. Dan Skelton really fancies Wishfull Thinking and nominates him as his e/w bet of the festival. Lydia and Andrew both opt for Kid Cassidy as likely to be placed, Special Tiara takes Tony's fancy. Rory thinks Sizing Europe is overpriced.
Ryanair
With last year's victor Cue Card now a non runner for the entire meet due to a muscle injury, this race is wide open. He probably would have gone to the Gold Cup anyway but again, while disappointing, the right decision has been made. There could still be some serious horses taking part, the grey Al Ferof, First Lieutenant for Mouse Morris who was 2nd last year and another grey, Dynaste amongst others.
Stats:
Only one of the nine winners priced over 6/1. Only two favourites have won the race. Seven of the nine winners aged eight or over. All winners bar one had previously won at the course.
Dynaste is a horse I like and have backed this season but I missed the bigger price and I have been disappointed by his recent runs and now have decided to jump ship. First Lieutenant is a serious horse and looks a real danger. Benefficient could line up here instead of the champion chase but with SS out will surely opt for the 2m event. Tried to find some value in the race and at first glance I was going to leave it, but after speaking to someone on Twitter I was convinced he was on to something. This horse ran in the Lexus, travelling strongly until tiring up the run in, finishing not far behind some classy horses. He was said by connections to have badly needed the run. He was then bang there in the Hennessey next time until late in the day when tiring again against some proper horses once more as you would expect in such a race. However, the drop back in trip for Lyreen Legend looks a great move and he ran a cracker last year in the RSA. Yes, this horse has really tickled my fancy and can defy the stats and run a massive race at what could turn out to be a massive price at 20/1. << Since writing this Dessie has said that he will likely target the Gold Cup which is very annoying as the Ryanair is there for the taking and Lyreen Legend doesn't stay well enough to win the GC!
Preview evening notes:
All the panel agree that the two greys will fight this out. Tony thinks Al Ferof would have won the Champion Chase if competing but thinks Dynaste is the one to beat at the longer trip. Rory can't see past the top three (including Benefficient) who Lydia says will win this race if lining up. Tinkler thinks Dynaste is worth forgiving his last run and nominates him as likely winner then it is revealed that Dynaste has had a wind op since his last race. Pipe yard keeping it quiet though.
World Hurdle
The World Hurdle is the feature race on day three of the festival. Last year, Solwhit took the glory in the absence of Big Bucks who won it the four years prior. Oscar Whisky was the 9/4 favourite but never really looked happy and ended up not even completing, being pulled up before jumping the last. This year, Big Buck's is back, aiming to win his fifth World Hurdle. Whatever happens here, I am of the opinion that this will be the old fella's last race, though that is by no means a fact. Annie Power is a mouth watering contender and this is being billed as a straight match up. However, the unexposed and hugely exciting More Of That throws a spanner in the works.
Stats:
No 5yo ever won. French bred horses won eight of last twelve runnings. Solwhit was the first Irish trained winner for eighteen years.Only one front runner has held on for a place since 1996. Seventeen of the last twenty winners had run at the previous year's festival. Seven of the last ten runnings have seen the top five in the betting occupy the top three finishing places. Nine of the last ten winners won the race before. No double figure priced winner this century.
Two words for me here. Annie. Power. My biggest fancy of the festival is she. The wonder mare is still yet to be troubled by any horse she has faced, and this won't change in the World Hurdle. I thought she would contest the Champion Hurdle originally (which would have made the race even more special) but that Willie Mullins is a shrewd and wise old man. Coming over to England for a 2m prep race, yeah right was he planning on the Champion Hurdle ;-) All part of the fun! Back to Annie. A perfect 10/10, the step up to 3m will enable her to show even more. The further she goes the better she will be. She recorded her best RPR when running over the greatest distance she has contested; 20f at Cheltenham on heavy ground, making Zarkandar look like the stable cat in the process. Even more impressive perhaps was her Fairyhouse victory last March, again over 20f. She really could be anything, she could be something very very special indeed and I think this is the race that finally makes people say 'whoa, this horse is something else.' She could be scary good. More Of That is exciting, but will need to be something out of this world if he can take this on only his forth start. After this race I think Big Bucks will be seen as a great of the past and Annie Power will be seen as a world beater of the future. Banker.
Selection: ANNIE POWER 3/1 FESTIVAL BANKER
Preview evening notes:
Tony says Nicholls' aim is to get Annie Power beaten and he will try everything to make it a proper staying test. He also says he hasn't seen Nicholls quite as bullish about anything in a while. Celestial Halo nominated as the likely pacemaker, Salubrious nominated as an underrated dark horse. PFN thinks Big Bucks is back to his best and will be 100% ready on the day. Lydia points out that Annie Power can be a bit buzzy and will need to settle early on. When asked which horse he would ride, Tinkler replies 'Definitely Annie Power.' However, he then goes on to stay Big Bucks is the proven stayer, Annie Power has to show she can get the 3m in the hardest race of her life. Dan Skelton sums up race very well. Says the two that beat BB last time would never have dreamed to have got so close, let alone pass him, even considering he needed the run. Says how much do you forgive him for last run and how much will he come on for it. Lydia suggests he might go backward and run a shocker, Dan dismisses that quite readily. Rory says Big Bucks is ready and the Nicholls camp will offer no excuses if he is beaten. All agree it is a two horse race, though as said, Salubrious likely to outrun his price as well.
Triumph Hurdle
The forth and final day of the festival opens with the Triumph Hurdle. This race is for four year old juveniles and is run over a distance of two miles and one furlong. The race was won last year in breathtaking fashion by my Champion Hurdle fancy Our Conor. I urge you to watch last year's demolition again, stunning performance. This year looks a very tricky puzzle with countless chances.
Stats:
No filly won since 2000. Only one favourite obliged since 2000. Eight of last ten winners won last time out. Last nine winners posted an RPR of 132 or more in one or both of their last two runs. Eight of last ten winners had won a hurdles race by at least 7 lengths. Winner came from first four in the betting in eight of last nine runnings. Nine of last ten winners had run on the flat.
I have no strong fancy in this race. I made two ante-post bets but doubtful whether either will run now after disappointing recently. I think Alcala is very highly regarded and very much next season's horse but he had a Triumph entry and was worth an ew tickle at 33/1 I thought. Considering the long break I thought he ran an encouraging race last time behind Activial. I am sure Nicholls said he would put the grey away now till next season but you never know. Another I backed who has been very disappointing is Chocola. This horse is highly regarded but for some reason things are not clicking on the course for him. A doubtful runner now and 50/1 probably the price he ought to be even if he does run. Stranger things have happened though. If neither of these run then I probably won't back anything else, too competitive and nothing I strongly fancy. Just to be clear, I would not advise backing either of these horses now, but just putting up my two AP fancies.
Preview evening notes:
Rory thinks Activial could be pulled from the race if the ground dries out too much. Le Rocher was never seen as a Triumph horse before the trial apparently. He is a stayer in the making and may need quicker ground says Lydia. Tinkler says neither Henderson horse will get the ground they need, he likes Le Rocher. The top three in the market never won on the flat, nine of last ten winners of race had done so. Tony and Rory opt for Le Rocher, Dan Skelton fancies Broughton to place and Lydia throws in Gitane Du Berlais. 'If handles ground, and big if, then could be a huge price.' Points out that she will get the weight allowance, that said no filly won since 2000.
Gold Cup
The feature race of the four day festival is held on the final day. The gruelling 26 furlong trip brings together the best staying chasers in the world to fight it out up that hill for a place in the history books. Last year's race was as eventful as ever. My main Cheltenham fancy, Silviniaco Conti crashed out when travelling oh so well. Would he have won? No one is to know, either way. Bob's Worth looked beat but the little horse's massive heart and determination saw him home and he won quite comfortably in the end. This year he is back to defend his crown, and will likely start a shortish priced favourite. Gallant Long Run was back in third and this year goes to the National, his Gold Cup days are over. Last year's runner up, Sir Des Champs who was my AP fancy this year, unfortunately ruled out through injury some time ago.
Stats:
Last fourteen winners had previously won a Grade 1. Ten of last thirteen either won or finished second at the festival before. Only one 6yo has won in the last 40 years. Only one of the last twenty winners aged ten or older. Twelve of the last thirteen winners rated 166 or higher. Last thirteen winners have been from the top three in the betting.
Not a massive stats man myself but the Gold Cup winner is nearly always prominent in the market. The favourite, Bob's Worth is rightly the price he is. Unbeaten at Cheltenham, and a brave performance in this race last year in a stronger renewal, he is very much the one to beat for me. Silviniaco Conti will have a great chance if getting round and could pose a big threat, many will fancy him, but after last year and considering the shortish price I won't be backing him this time. The worrying thing for backers here is that he has had only two runs at the course, once falling and the other coming third behind Menorah and Cue Card over three years ago. However, he was impressive when winning the King George last time and should run a big race. Last Instalment will be under scrutiny in light of the recent Fenton case. For me, he would be an uncomfortable winner. The sport has already got a bad reputation, and rightly so in some cases, and a horse that could have possibly been subject to steroid use winning one of the most prestigious races of the entire season would leave me feeling uneasy. Of course this isn't fair on the horse, but that is the nature of the beast. However, his Hennessey win was very impressive and is well fancied for this, despite the fact he has never been seen at Cheltenham before though the drying ground is a big worry.
If one was to pop up at a huge price, it may be the rejuvenated and experienced Giant Bolster, or maybe Harry Topper if conditions got very testing which at this stage looks very doubtful. For me I will likely only be watching this year. I think the race lacks the usual magic and spark. Cue Card missing the race is a shame, but I am very sceptical as to whether he would have been good enough to win a Gold Cup, even a watery one like this. (Unfair?) No credit shall be taken away from the winner however, who in my mind is likely to be Bob's Worth once more. If things get very heavy, Harry Topper may have some of my cash each way and if old Giant Bolster looks especially up for it come post time, he may have a few quid from me on the place market.
Preview evening notes:
General consensus that Bob's Worth will retain his Gold Cup crown. Triolo D'alene and Captain Chris put up as each way alternatives. Race seen as a matchup between the top two in the market though most agree their prices should be more closely matched. Point made that this years race looks weaker than the one he won last year. Last Instalment needs softer ground and talk that he could be pulled.
Other preview evening notes:
Rory says Sue Smith is very sweet on the chances of her horse Blakemount in the Albert Bartlett. Lydia has backed King's Palace but Briar Hill was the one they all liked. Concern about absence for KP as well as Tom Scu going off too fast and being overly aggressive. Captain Cutter confirmed for race by Tinkler, the panel agree it is a two horse race and four of the panel favoured Briar Hill over the main market rival with Rory putting him up as his bet of the festival.
Quevega did a blistering piece of work last week and is supposedly as good as ever. Glen's Melody confirmed retired to stud at the end of the season. Swing Bowler only 50/50 for the race with Pipe apparently siding with another race for her. Rory fancies L'Unique as the classiest horse without the favourite and looks big at 25/1. Lydia says one day age will catch up with her and she won't win, and says the French horse the one likely to capitalise if so. Cockney Sparrow written off as not good enough. Andrew agrees with Rory and says Quevega will win and L'Unique will place if good ground. All the panel were conclusive in that they would not lay Quevega.
Lydia really fancies Indian Castle in the Kim Muir and Rory says Donald McCain nominated him as his NAP of the meeting. Rory also shared that he had been told to back Forced Family Fun by John Quinn's son for whichever race he gets into at the festival. Pendra, Mr Mole and Indian Castle all been popular in the markets says Rory. Tony shares with us that PFN thought the handicapper had made a mistake rising Vibrato Valtat by only 1lb for his win. He thought it was an 11lb rise and it was a misprint. He was shocked when the 1lb rise was confirmed as he can't remember one of his horses only going up 1lb for a win. Tony says could be extremely well handicapped. Andrew nominates Dawalan as being well handicapped and could sport headgear for the first time and Ericht has a massive chance if the ground keeps drying out. Tony nominates Present View (NHC) Next Sensation (GA) Tap Night (Byrne) and Goodwood Mirage (FW) as his four handicap good things. Lydia likes Sure Reef as she thinks he is well handicapped and supposedly did a lightning piece of work this week. Dan Skelton says he has been told 'Fingal Bay will win' and adds further meat to the bones about Wishfull Thinking's Champion Chase chances. Discussing Cup Final, Tinkler says he is very nice this year, but next year he will be great. One to stick in the tracker.
After listening to the preview I have selected six horses to take away from it at big prices, you will find them below. Was a great evening and will certainly be going to more of them next year, hope you found what they said as interesting as I did, and hopefully they have given us one or two more winners!
Other bets
One other bet I have already made but not talked about is VENDOR in the Coral Cup at a healthy ew price of 20/1. The French-bred gelding was last seen running a good race in the Grade 3 Betfair Hurdle. Being a hold up horse, he does need a decent pace and things to drop his way which they did in the race before when he won going away at Newbury. He beat a very decent field then, including Saphir Du Rheu who is now rated 158. He also beat a smart horse called Shotavodka as well as some other decent yardsticks. He won't mind the big field either as the grey enjoys running through other horses. The horse ran here at Cheltenham before as well, finishing a good third on only his second start in the UK. The step back up in trip will suit Vendor and while this race is super competitive, I think he can run a very big race for the Alan King yard who won this race last year with Medinas at an even bigger price.
NED BUNTLINE is one I have been made aware of in the final race of the festival. While short enough for a race of this nature at 14/1, he will be bidding to give JP McManus his third success in a row with three different trainers. While having no course form, he has never been out the first three. Always have to be wary of Nicky Henderson runners in this race but the bigger danger could come from the promising Next Sensation, one to keep on side for sure. However Ned is carrying a nice weight and looks well handicapped and should keep his record of never finishing out the places intact.
Aside from the races mentioned, I have noted a few horses below to lookout for. They will likely start at big prices and if everything looks right pre-race I will be having some ew money on them. Just small fancies but definitely horses to look out for for various different reasons. Also below is a summary of my Ante-Post bets as well as a few multiples I have had. Obviously I understand some of the prices mentioned have long gone now but plenty of value still to be had, this is just a blog of my AP bets for the festival :-)
Ante-Post Fancies:
Supreme Novices Hurdle: UN ACE 100/1 ew - Unplaced
Arkle Chase: TRIFOLIUM 6/1 - PLACED
Champion Hurdle: OUR CONOR 9/2 - FELL (Fatally injured :-( )
Neptune: RED SHERLOCK 6/1 - Unplaced
Neptune: ROYAL BOY 14/1 ew NR
RSA: DON COSSACK 16/1 ew FELL
RSA: ANNACOTTY 20/1 ew - Unplaced
Coral Cup: VENDOR 20/1 ew - Unplaced
Champion Chase: MODULE 20/1 ew PLACED
World Hurdle: ANNIE POWER 3/1 PLACED
Grand Annual: NED BUNTLINE 14/1 ew
Horses to look out for in handicaps and races not mentioned
THE LIQUIDATOR - Supreme Novices 25/1 - Unplaced
ALAIVAN - County Hurdle - 14/1
MANY CLOUDS - RSA 16/1 FELL
COYABA - Champion Bumper 66/1 - Unplaced
STACK THE DECK - Champion Bumper 50/1 - PU (Fatally injured :-( )
CLONARD LAD - Pertemps 20/1 NR
PRESENT VIEW - Novices Handicap 14/1 WINNER
GREEN FLAG - Festival Handicap 25/1 PLACED
HADRIANS APPROACH - Festival Handicap 12/1 - Unplaced
STAR NEUVILLE - Cross Country - 8/1 - Unplaced
SEA BEAT - Fred Winter 16/1 NR
TAP NIGHT - Byrne Plate 14/1
Horses to take away from preview evening:
VANITEUX - Supreme 12/1 PLACED
WISHFULL THINKING - Champion Chase 33/1 - Unplaced
GITANE DU BERLAIS - Triumph 16/1 NR
UN TEMPS POUR TOUT - Neptune 14/1 NR
FORCED FAMILY FUN - Fred Winter 25/1 NR
VIBRATO VALTAT - County Hurdle 20/1 NR
FINGAL BAY - Pertemps 7/1 WINNER
Multiples
Lucky 15 and doubles:
Annie Power, Trifolium, Our Conor, Red Sherlock. (add Briar Hill for a L31)
Also done various ew L15's and e/w multiples using horses mentioned priced 10/1+
Update:
Bookie buster ew Lucky 31:
Green Flag 16/1, Vendor 14/1, Ned Buntline 12/1, Tap Night 9/1, Stack The Deck 33/1
Returns £466,592 for 25p each way.
Other pointers:
Worth keeping an eye out for the horse that Danny Mullins chooses to ride in the Champion Bumper. Also in same race, the Dermot Weld runner will likely run a big race. Still has two entered, but if only one turns up that could be a big tip in itself.
Hope you enjoyed reading our Cheltenham preview, any comments and RT's of the link on Twitter are greatly appreciated. Good Luck if you like the sound of any of these and have a go yourself. Be lucky at the festival but more importantly make sure you enjoy the four days of best jumps action in the world. I can't wait for it all to start!
Regards,
THT
TAP NIGHT - Byrne Plate 14/1
Horses to take away from preview evening:
VANITEUX - Supreme 12/1 PLACED
WISHFULL THINKING - Champion Chase 33/1 - Unplaced
GITANE DU BERLAIS - Triumph 16/1 NR
UN TEMPS POUR TOUT - Neptune 14/1 NR
FORCED FAMILY FUN - Fred Winter 25/1 NR
VIBRATO VALTAT - County Hurdle 20/1 NR
FINGAL BAY - Pertemps 7/1 WINNER
Multiples
Lucky 15 and doubles:
Annie Power, Trifolium, Our Conor, Red Sherlock. (add Briar Hill for a L31)
Also done various ew L15's and e/w multiples using horses mentioned priced 10/1+
Update:
Bookie buster ew Lucky 31:
Green Flag 16/1, Vendor 14/1, Ned Buntline 12/1, Tap Night 9/1, Stack The Deck 33/1
Returns £466,592 for 25p each way.
Other pointers:
Worth keeping an eye out for the horse that Danny Mullins chooses to ride in the Champion Bumper. Also in same race, the Dermot Weld runner will likely run a big race. Still has two entered, but if only one turns up that could be a big tip in itself.
Hope you enjoyed reading our Cheltenham preview, any comments and RT's of the link on Twitter are greatly appreciated. Good Luck if you like the sound of any of these and have a go yourself. Be lucky at the festival but more importantly make sure you enjoy the four days of best jumps action in the world. I can't wait for it all to start!
Regards,
THT
Excellent read.thank you
ReplyDeleteKind of you to say, thanks for reading, enjoy the festival!
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