Blog returned with a bang yesterday with a 22/1 winner in the opening race as Fanning timed his run to perfection on Lyn Valley though the hard luck story was the other Johnston runner who finished second ruining my forecast! We had other each way money through the day at 8/1, 8/1 and 7/1 with two others missing out on places both by a nose at 7/1 and 14/1.
Anyway on to Friday where I have a few fancies at a more competitive looking Goodwood as well as one from the tracker at a huge price who is thrown in and can hopefully do some damage.
The course form showed it's importance yesterday in a big way as shown by the results for previous winners at the track. Whilst I won't be solely concentrating on that today it will of course be an important thing to look out for when studying the card.
Race 1: The opener is arguably the most intriguing of the day. Last year's 2nd favourite for the Derby Battle of Marengo trying to find form, the return of Quest For Peace who is 2/2 at the track and back with Luca Cumani after disappointing in Australia and probably the most interesting of them all, the return of Encke who lowered Camelot's colours in his triple crown bid back in 2012. The St Leger winner is back after his drugs ban and will be interesting to see how he goes, now a 5yo. Just one to watch for me, but will be in the headlines whichever horse wins.
Race 2: Another nice little race here. I backed Shifting Power when 100/1 forth in the Guineas and his subsequesnt form makes him a worthy favourite. Rapprochement, a fascinating runner who demolished his rivals on debut for the prolific Appleby/Kirby partnership may make an impact but not sure what to make of him - clearly needs to be pretty special to trouble the best of these at this stage. Then again he won doing handstands and he doesn't make the trip for no reason, obviously well regarded.
My bet in this race will be the outsider of the field, naturally! A few subsequent winners came out of his impressive win at Epsom two runs back and while the form is ordinary on first glance there are many positives to his chances. He had Lyn Valley behind him that day and that horse has since won at Goodwood just yesterday, our 22/1 winner in fact! I expected What About Carlo to win his next race too when I was there at Newmarket the last day. If I remember rightly the market did too, was heavily backed in from as big as 10/1 if I remember rightly, SP 4/1. However, he ran flat. The jockey told the trainer after the race he didn't feel right and never got going and I believe it was officially registered with the stewards. Why? I don't know, maybe the way the race was run, or the horse had a problem that connections missed. He was hardly given a hard time by Jimmy Fortune either way. Some will say it was the 7lb penatly, but I say give him another chance up in class and down in trip with Mr Moore taking over. Another thing to note is that he is the only runner with a win at the course, over C/D in fact. Furthermore he clearly handles tight, nimble, undulating tracks as he is 1/1 at Epsom and 1/1 here and bringing him back here, down in trip and with the best jockey in the world taking over he can out run his big odds. One or two of these will be tough to beat but with eight runners and a price of 28/1, this well regarded colt can get back on track with a big run. Today's IWAC, and quite a strong one I feel, but the favourite is the one to beat and the Godolphin runner is not one to underestimate.
Race 3: The Betfred Mile next, the most competitive race of the day probably. Velox is the favourite at 7/1 and certainly won well enough last time, my favourite jockey takes over too but I fancy one just that little bit more. Heavy Metal was having his 10th start of the season when winning the Longines just six days ago and surely that run would have taken plenty out of him? Won his last two well but needs more though does have course form but never won over a mile. 50/50 for me but decided not to back, may regret that. One at a bigger price that I have backed is Our Channel for the in form Haggas yard. 20/1 represents great value to me for the only three year old in the field. (3yos won last two runnings) His weight for age allowance means he can run off a mark of 94 here effectively which throws him right into the thick of it. (official rating 101) The least exposed member of the field, he is a truly fascinating contender. His last assignment was in the USA when coming a good second in the American Derby after not staying over 1m4f in the Epsom Derby back in June. This horse won the Derby Trial however, winning very gamely over 10 furlongs under a good ride from Ryan Moore beating most notably Hartnell who is now as short as 5/1 for the St Leger. That is strong form indeed considering he is being let loose off 94 today. Expect a very positive ride from De Sousa who notably has a 36% SR for the yard. 20/1 is mad and won't last I am sure of it. The money from this yard is usually smart, so the more that comes the prettier we will sit. My NAP of the day.
Race 4: I like the best horse in the race here plain and simply. Tropics took his time to get back to form but ran a career best at a whopping 66/1 last time when second behind Slade Power in the July Cup. That's the best form on offer. The drop back to five furlongs is an interesting move and one that I think will work out rasther well. He handles the track as shown by his good Stewards Cup run here last year and if running up to the form of his last run nothing else will get past him. It's competitive, of course it is, Moviesta may be the biggest danger, a horse I really like and took this prize last year but ran nothing like that form this season, but possible a return here could re-kindle the fire. At 7/1 you can't go wrong each way with Tropics, however.
Race 5: Not usually my type of race but couldn't resist a punt on George Bowen in this. He is clearly very highly regarded, being dumped in at the deep end in a Group 2 on only his second start. Not just any Group 2 either, the July Stakes which I think was a very strong batch of two year olds this year, just look at the field. Ivawood, from Jungle Cat as well as The Great War from O'Brien's yard. Strong form indeed in the context of this race. He is still in the Gimcrack and you get the impression that connections were disappointed after his last run. He gets into this nursery off 84 by the way. This is what his trainer had to say: 'He starts his handicaps off a rating of 84 and if he is the colt we think he is, that could be very fair.' 9/1 at time of writing though 37% of the money is on him at the moment, get on fast if you like his chances.
Race 6: No strong opinion here but thought Muteela was fair at 3/1. Worth mentioning that the only horse with course form is course and distance winner Wee Jean for Mick Channon and Ryan Moore.
Race 7: No strong opinion though maybe Art Of War has been judged a bit harshly on last run and 18/1 a little big possibly.
Tracker: Just one from the tracker on Friday and one I fancy. Spiritual Star has finally dropped in grade and also back in trip to the ideal 7f. He also returns to Newmarket, the scene of his sole win (C/D) and has now dropped 16lbs in the handicap since joining the Carsons. Tomorrow is the day handbrake is realeased I think, and the drop in grade and firmer surface should see him run a screamer, especially if ridden more positively from the front. This horse was once rated 109 rightly or wrongly and he ran a huge eycatcher on seasonal debut off 92, a race he could have won if the rider tried a bit harder. Off 83 he will think he has been let loose and might rack up a bit of a sequence if allowed. It's a matter of when not if, and hopefully it can be tomorrow, especially at the prices available, 18/1 could end up looking silly.
Selections:
14.30 - What About Carlo 28/1 ew Non-Runner
15.05 - Our Channel 20/1 ew NAP
15.40 - Tropics 7/1 ew Non-Runner
16.15 - George Bowen 9/1 ew IWAC
19.30 - Spiritual Star 18/1 ew NB
Good luck if you take the plunge with us. All big each way prices as usual.
THT
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