There are so many misconceptions amongst the average punter in regards to value in my opinion. Below I give my very simplified take on value for the average punter. First of all what is value? Value for the everday bettor is solely based on an opinion. I.E - is the horse a bigger price than you expected? Does the horse have a greater chance of winning than the price suggests? The way I have always worked out a race is first of all look through the recent form of the runners, yard form, C/D winner etc and everything else in between. I don't look at forecast prices and I don't look at the early markets. I price up the race myself roughly in my head, (sometimes written down if really in the mood!) then I will open up oddschecker and see where we stand. Don't get me wrong, I have literally had entire markets completely upside down but by doing this you can compare your thoughts and the bookmakers and then try and find out why there is such a difference, if any.
There is always this battle of wit between punter and bookmaker, trying to out-smart eachother. Bookies sometimes offer surprisingly big prices and sucking people in (Captain Cat a good recent example) but the thing people forget is that bookmakers make mistakes. They price races up wrong, intentionally or otherwise. Happens everyday, nearly every race, there will always be at least one or two runners whose odds don't reflect anything like the horse's realistic chances of winning the race. Generally a runner catches the eye when first scanning the card and that's the one you concentrate on.
If the horse is a 5/1 poke in your head but a firm are offering 10/1, the first thing to do is ask why? Is there something you have missed? I go back, look again make sure I am happy with my 5/1 evaluation. Sometimes I am, sometimes I see I have missed something huge and the horse is suddenly 20's in my head. The key is being honest with yourself, discipline is the number one necessity in this game. If I can't find any reason why it is available to back at a double figure price, I would likely have a bet as I deem the bet to be good VALUE. I know this is really simplified but I don't want to go on all day.
The above doesn't consider bookies overrounds (approx 115% to 125%) so you have to be careful. You can't just make up your own market at any prices you please. There are various overround calculators out there to keep you on track. Alternitavely, you could use the forecast SP's as a reference. Problem is the person who has done those needs to know what they are talking about, and I have seen forecast SP's of 16/1 open at 5/2 and vice versa. Saying that, for those new to racing and the mathematics of betting, using the forecast SP's as a reference to actual prices available can be a good way to start to understand value.
The other thing worth mentioning is that value is more relevant and noticeable at shorter prices. If you have a horse at 20/1 in your mind but 33/1 is available you may think because there is 13pts difference that you have found a gold mine. Realistically this is not the case. Despite there being a big difference in terms of points, literally a few pounds can move a horse 33/1>>20/1 in the overnight market, and in the seconds before a race bookies can throw a 20/1 poke out to 33/1 in a blink of an eye. At your price and the bookmakers, the horse has a very slim chance of winning anyway, the difference isn't worth reading too much in to. However, if you have one priced at even money in your head and you see 7/4 available, this is the time to seriously consider having a bet. You may not think evs and 7/4 are that much different but see the comparison below.
The maths:
20/1 shot - 4.8% chance of winning
33/1 shot - 2.9% chance of winning
= 1.9% difference
Evs shot - 50% chance of winning
7/4 shot - 36.4% chance of winning
= 13.6% difference
This explains perfectly what I am trying to say. In these examples, the short prices are around seven times more relavant as a % difference than the bigger prices. This is partly because it takes a whole heap of cash to move a horse into even money from 7/4. Obviously the above is assuming you are a good judge, but as I said earlier, value is all about opinion. While opinions can never be right or wrong, you will find they get more accurate the more races you study and as you get a greater understanding of the mathematics behind the markets and bookmaking in general.
Remember a 1/4 shot can still be value. If you think the horse has a higher percentage of winning than his odds suggest, then true value punters should still see this as a betting opportunity. If the horse is a 1/8 poke in your head then there is a 8.9% difference in the bookmaker odds and the odds you think that best reflect the horse's chances. This means that effectively you are getting over four times the VALUE backing this 1/4 shot than you are backing the 33/1 shot in the above example. That hits it home doesn't it. Value doesn't mean the horse is a big price, value can be found at any price and as shown above it is actually at the shorter prices that the real value can be found.
So why is value out there? Partly it is because bookmakers don't spend enough time properly looking through races to find the horse's true chance of winning. Some bookies are lazier than others, but generally the runners are priced up on form. Overnight markets are something I prefer didn't exist, it can literally take a few pounds here and there to completely crush a price and ruin it for everybody. This is because there is no liquidity in the markets and if it were up to me, all prices would be released by all bookmakers at 8am on the morning of the race. However, as this isn't the case, I will try and back horses at the best available prices I can get, as would anyone.
I had a good look through the cards yesterday afternoon and picked out a few potential interesting runners. I roughly priced up the markets for all the races I was interested in, then had a look on oddschecker at the early prices. Below was my thinking process for my three on the blog:
Jupiter Rex - Had this one at about 2/1, race not especially strong, stable in form, somehow dropped 2lbs by the handicapper for reappearance run which he would have come on a lot for, conditions to suit. I said to myself anything over 2/1 I will have a bet. I thought the horse had around a 33.3% chance of winning. Looked at the odds, 10/3 out there (23.1%) which is over 10% difference, safe to say I snapped that up and made Jupiter Rex my NAP - but at that price. He isn't my NAP at 6/4 available now, because 6/4 suggests a 40% chance of winning which I think is too short and doesn't represent VALUE. This is why getting on early is so important.
Xaarcet - Had this one at about 9/2 (18.2%) Race is terrible, yard starting to fire, won at the course, very well handicapped, should go well fresh and conditions to suit. 13/2 was available for this one (13.3%) so I backed it with that 4.9% cushion in mind. Is now around 5/2 which represents no value to me whatsoever. I wouldn't back my NB at 5/2 is what I am saying. (28.6%) I think the price is too short and in my opinion overestimates the horses chances. It was my NB at the price of 13/2.
Brantingham Breeze - I would have backed this one at 4/1. The opening price gave me a little bit of juice at 5/1, but only a small value percentage of 3.3%. If the horse was 10/1, it would have been my NAP as the difference would have been 10.9%, a greater difference than my NAP.
Value % or rating:
Jupiter Rex 10.2 = NAP
Xaarcet 4.9 = NB
Brantingham Breeze 3.3 = IWAC
Double figure differences don't happen that often, so Jupiter Rex was a strong selection for me, worthy of a decent punt. A staking system built on these percentages alone is something I may consider and trial, it's all about trying new things and trying to find an edge and more importantly having fun.
As I have said it is different for everyone, so you have to trust yourself and be honest with yourself, This is just my take, others will completely disagree and have their own opinions, which is why horseracing is such a fantastic sport.
Hope you enjoyed my ramblings and more importantly hope we nail a winner or two today.
THT
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