Well what a frustrating, yet profitable day yesterday was. All three selections came 2nd at each way prices, beaten under a length in total between them. The Grey Gatsby was definitely the most unlucky, boxed in by Dettori on the Gosden runner until mercifully, the gap came and the Kevin Ryan stable star chased after Free Eagle who had got first run. The line came a stride too soon, and Spencer will certainly have been venting his frustrations in the weighing room no doubt! Before that, Fadhayill ran a screamer in the Jersey stakes, beaten half a length by the trainer's son, who led home a Hills family 1-2 in the opener. Later on in the card, Temptress showed her potential, quietly weaving her way through the field on the far side but just getting done close home by GM Hopkins of the never out of form Gosden yard and yet another winner for Ryan Moore who doubled up on the day. The Charlton filly is certainly one to keep in your notebooks, she will be plying her trade in pattern company from now on. All in all another very solid day, that's four placed and one winner from six selections so far, all at each way prices, hopefully more of the same going on into the later part of the week.
The Ribblesdale and indeed the entire day three card looks very competitive and pretty tricky to solve. The progressive Curvy now has the services of Ryan Moore and at 8/1 I can totally understand those siding with her in the each way market. The Irish 1000 winner does look very much the one to beat however, and looks likely though far from certain to stay. The Cumani filly is the exact type of horse the trainer excels with and that one looks likely to run a big race but I'm siding with Pandora, at a bigger price than all those mentioned above. I won't be going mad, but her last run took a huge boost when Star Of Seville won a very competitive Prix De Diane in France the other day and she is certainly no 12/1 shot here with further improvement expected. Connections had once considered the Oaks but have really had this race lined up ever since her run in the Musidora. She is a big filly, is expected to improve for the step up in trip and can give Charlie Hills his second winner at this year's Royal Meeting.
There is a bit of a gamble brewing on War Envoy in the Britannia and I can sort of understand why. There are plenty of improving and unexposed types elsewhere and it is an utter minefield so just a small each way punt for me. Rotherwick can go well to boost that Jack Hobbs/Stravagante formline even more but one I like at a bigger price is one of the Godolphin foursome. Emirates Airline had two runs as a two year old, both disappointing efforts considering his price in the market on both occasions. The summer break/gelding operation and step up in trip from sprinting seemed to work the magic when he won with any amount in hand in a Chelmsford handicap on reappearance. He has since ran once more, finishing a length behind Dissolution, who is favourite for the race after this at time of writing and that form could turn out to be okay. This is before you consider that the 10f trip stretched him that day and he was far too keen - a strongly run race over this trip could be exactly what this horse needs to be shown to best effect. He also gets a hood first time which can only help his cause and should help him to settle a little better. If everything comes together he could run a very big race under Harry Bentley - backing his mounts would have you operating at a very impressive £85 LSP this season. As I say, just a small bet and you need a lot of luck but paying 6 places at 28/1 he is worth a play. (33/1 available but only 4 places)
The closing handicap on Day 3 has the aforementioned Dissolution as favourite and he has already been popular and no longer an each way price for me. He has solid claims stepping up in trip but at 11/1 so does Scottish. He was only just nailed by Mr Singh of Gosden's yard two starts back, who runs in a Group 2 later in the week. He improved from that run to make all last time beating off another Gosden inmate who has since made a mockery of a mark of 86 making Socttish look fairly treated off 91, especially now moving up in trip which looks sure to suit. The worry in a field of this size is that the competition for the lead may be fierce but I don't think he has to lead to be seen to best effect. This is a step up in class but the Balding inmate is open to improvement and the jockey nominated him as one of his best rides of the week (already had a winner) Paying four places, he looks worth an each way play at 11/1 in the finale.
A note of caution - a very trappy day today so I'm playing at half stakes and done a little each way trixie as well as each way singles - don't give all the profit we've made in the last two days straight back to the bookies! Much better racing later in the week to wait for.
Selections:
15.40 Ribblesdale - Pandora 12/1 each way
17.00 Britannia - Emirates Airline 28/1 each way (six places)
17.35 King George V - Scottish 11/1 each way (four places) 2ND
THT
Wednesday, 17 June 2015
Tuesday, 16 June 2015
Royal Ascot - Day 2
Cracking opening day at Ascot. Ryan Moore stole the show with a treble but arguably the most impressive perofmance of the day was Buratino who we made our NAP in the Coventry. Always travelling well, he hit the front at the furlong pole and Buick needn't have carried his stick, hugely exciting horse going forward. Sole Power just had too much to do and his ageing legs couldn't make up the ground quick enough in the Kings Stand, but he ran creditably finishing a close enough 5th. Noble Silk was the IWAC and ran a very good race to finish fourth in the Ascot Stakes, landing some tidy each way profit at early price of 33/1. All in all, a very solid start. On to day two.
Ivawood is the red hot favourite in the opener and Richard Hughes has called him the banker of the week. While he obviously has a leading chance, I'm keen to take him on with a solid each way alternative. Two of the last five runnings have been won by fillies and with FADHAYILL coming back in trip to 7f, it may be another that takes the Jersey stakes this year. She was only beaten a length by Lucida on her final 2yo start and reappeared with a huge run in the Guineas to finish 5th, this despite a front bandage causing all sorts of problems in the final furlong. She drops in class and drops in trip and has always been very well regarded, she can run into a place at the very least here and may give the favourite most to think about, Grab 10/1 while you can, it won't last.
It's always nice to get a big price about a runner with the best form going into a race (like Buratino yesterday) and it's the case again tomorrow in the Prince Of Wales Stakes. Kevin Ryan has often said that THE GREY GATSBY doesn't get the credit he deserves, and judged by the fact you can get 13/2 about a multiple Group 1 winner who is rated 6lbs higher than his nearest rival in the race, suggests he may be right. Yesterday Solow boosted the form of his 2nd In Meydan two starts back and while his run in Ireland was underwhelming, he was only beaten two lengths. Jamie Spencer can be hit and miss but will hopefully get it right tomorrow, he is very possibly the each way bet of the entire meeting and I certainly wouldn't put you off a sizeable each way punt. That said I'm backing him for the win - on 2014 form he would be different gravy to these, it isn't the strongest renewal, and while Free Eagle is an unknown quantity, 11/4 makes no appeal compared to the grey, no brainer for me and my NAP on day 2.
A 30 runner handicap is the type of race I barely even look at but when you feel there is a potential Group level horse running off near bottom weight, you have to have a play. TEMPTRESS is the horse in question. She absolutely dotted up on reappearance over C/D of which she is 2/2. She was only raised 7lbs for that performace which is a huge underestimation in my eyes. Roger Charlton's filly looks to have really come on over winter and he was quoted as saying 'we will definitely be looking to get some bacak type with her,' in a recent stable tour. This is a (very competitive) handicap and she looks sure to run well before going on to bigger and brighter things later in the season. She's the least exposed runner in the field and highly progressive, the ideal profile for a race like this, she'll be coming late and fast. The progressive Speculative Bid is the main worry but going back up to 1m may be his undoing in ths stronger race and at a smidgen bigger, I'm happy to side with Temptress at 14/1.
Selections:
14.30 Jersey Stakes - Fadhayill 10/1 each way 2ND
16.20 Prince Of Wales - The Grey Gatsby 13/2 2ND
17.00 Royal Hunt Cup - Temptress 14/1 each way (5 places) 2ND
THT
Ivawood is the red hot favourite in the opener and Richard Hughes has called him the banker of the week. While he obviously has a leading chance, I'm keen to take him on with a solid each way alternative. Two of the last five runnings have been won by fillies and with FADHAYILL coming back in trip to 7f, it may be another that takes the Jersey stakes this year. She was only beaten a length by Lucida on her final 2yo start and reappeared with a huge run in the Guineas to finish 5th, this despite a front bandage causing all sorts of problems in the final furlong. She drops in class and drops in trip and has always been very well regarded, she can run into a place at the very least here and may give the favourite most to think about, Grab 10/1 while you can, it won't last.
It's always nice to get a big price about a runner with the best form going into a race (like Buratino yesterday) and it's the case again tomorrow in the Prince Of Wales Stakes. Kevin Ryan has often said that THE GREY GATSBY doesn't get the credit he deserves, and judged by the fact you can get 13/2 about a multiple Group 1 winner who is rated 6lbs higher than his nearest rival in the race, suggests he may be right. Yesterday Solow boosted the form of his 2nd In Meydan two starts back and while his run in Ireland was underwhelming, he was only beaten two lengths. Jamie Spencer can be hit and miss but will hopefully get it right tomorrow, he is very possibly the each way bet of the entire meeting and I certainly wouldn't put you off a sizeable each way punt. That said I'm backing him for the win - on 2014 form he would be different gravy to these, it isn't the strongest renewal, and while Free Eagle is an unknown quantity, 11/4 makes no appeal compared to the grey, no brainer for me and my NAP on day 2.
A 30 runner handicap is the type of race I barely even look at but when you feel there is a potential Group level horse running off near bottom weight, you have to have a play. TEMPTRESS is the horse in question. She absolutely dotted up on reappearance over C/D of which she is 2/2. She was only raised 7lbs for that performace which is a huge underestimation in my eyes. Roger Charlton's filly looks to have really come on over winter and he was quoted as saying 'we will definitely be looking to get some bacak type with her,' in a recent stable tour. This is a (very competitive) handicap and she looks sure to run well before going on to bigger and brighter things later in the season. She's the least exposed runner in the field and highly progressive, the ideal profile for a race like this, she'll be coming late and fast. The progressive Speculative Bid is the main worry but going back up to 1m may be his undoing in ths stronger race and at a smidgen bigger, I'm happy to side with Temptress at 14/1.
Selections:
14.30 Jersey Stakes - Fadhayill 10/1 each way 2ND
16.20 Prince Of Wales - The Grey Gatsby 13/2 2ND
17.00 Royal Hunt Cup - Temptress 14/1 each way (5 places) 2ND
THT
Monday, 15 June 2015
Royal Ascot - Day 1
A scintillating five days racing are in order with several of the world's best horses on show. Filled with mouthwatering clashes, potential superstars and multiple Group 1 winning performers strutting their stuff - it is sure to live up to it's reputation yet again. Here are my selections for Day 1 of the best flat racing festival in the world.
Godolphin have a strong hand on the opening day of the festival with Night Of Thunder and the more intriguing Steady Pace hoping to give the boys in blue a better time of it than last year with just the one winner over the five days in a handicap. That said, I was really taken aback with Buratino's performace in the Woodcote at the Derby meeting, especially as he missed the break and was then a little keen early on. Despite that race not usually being associated with Coventry winners, he has always been held in the highest regard by his trainer who has an exceptional bunch of 2yos at his disposal. The way he travelled and then sprinted clear was very much in the style of a Coventry winner in my mind. Ascot, is of course a very different track but he ran well here on his second start and also won well at Newmarket so he should handle it just fine. The market for this race is formed upon hype and potential, but this fellow has arguably the best form on offer and can improve further still. At 8/1, he rates the best each way bet on Day 1 to me.
Sole Power can make history by winning the sprint for a third time, and with 4/1 still available in a place or two, he is well worth backing to do just that. Despite being an 8yo now, he is still one of the fastest horses in the world and looks too classy for the rest of these. You can completely ignore his reappearance run, 6f on soft ground was never going to suit him and he wasn't knocked about either. 5f on rattling ground is ideal and he loves Ascot, in my mind he's a 9/4 shot and even that's being generous. Muthmir ran a career best last time and he looks the only real danger, though hasn't run here before and has flopped on big wide open tracks in the past - it's Sole Power's to lose.
Noble Silk has always promised a big handicap prize and this could be his day in the 2m4f Ascot Stakes. He shapes as if this new trip will bring the best out of him, usually galloping on strongly in the closing stages from well off the pace. He will come on a bunch for his reappearance when he wasn't knocked about and that will have him set up perfectly for this. Oisin Murphy has ridden him twice before, winning last time he was in the saddle. He has course form too having come 3rd over an inadequate trip doing all his best work at the finish. He likes to weave his way through a big field and this race should really suit him. He will be coming through the field late, and at a general 25/1 but still 33/1 in a place, he rates a cracking each way proposition with firms paying four places. Fun Mac may be the one to be most wary of judged by his demolition job on reappearance - this new trip could help him too but at 7/1 vs this fella at 33/1, it's a no brainer.
Selections:
3.05 Coventry Stakes: Buratino 8/1 each way - WINNER
3.40 King's Stand Stakes: Sole Power 4/1
5.00 Ascot Stakes: Noble Silk 33/1 each way (4 places) PLACED
THT
Saturday, 17 January 2015
Cheltenham Ramblings
There are so many numbers, horses and races going through my head that I felt the need to get some of it written down. This won't be detailed or structured in any way, hence the title. I'll just share what I hear about potential race targets etc and will also be updating it frequently. Long term followers will know that I believe doing the rounds on the Cheltenham Festival preview evenings is invaluable and will be doing so again this year. More than anything they are a great laugh and you always hear a few exclusives and a bit of inside information or the odd anecdote or two from a member of the panel, typically filled with jockeys, trainers and tipsters, all good fun. All of the good bits will be posted below. I have only made a few decent sized ante-post bets but have dotted the cash around here and there on a few others. Will use this space to ramble on like I am already doing and we haven't even started. Please feel free to get involved on Twitter @THTRacing - I love hearing everyone's views and thoughts, usually far more sturctured and accurate than my own. Cheers for reading, hope what follows comes in useful or is at least an interesting read. Please keep checking every week or so, it will be updated all the way up to the night before the Festival kicks off.
Starting with the opening race of the meeting and Douvan looks all the rage. We heard about him before he had seen a racetrack for Mullins and put him up on our NH horses to follow 2015. He has since won both of his starts without coming out of second gear but at 5/2-9/4 makes no appeal whatsoever to me. I have heard on Twitter that certain people paid to know this stuff believe that the JP McManus owned Alvisio Ville is just as good if not just that little bit better than Douvan and I have backed him at 10/1 as there shouldn't be such a difference in price. He will be seen again before the festival so we will see where we stand after his next run but at 5/2 Douvan and 10/1 for the lesser exposed Alvisio Ville, it's a no brainer for me. There has been a midweek plunge on Alvisio Ville for the Neptune so looks like I have backed him for the wrong race. The perils of antepost betting! After disappointing last run I'm binning this slip and tbh won't be expecting much back from Neptune bet either. L'Ami Serge really impressed me last time. He didn't beat many horses but Dan Skelton's Shelford is no mug and Harry Fry's horse could be nice and he made them both look very very average. Whether he will like the hustle and bustle of a big field and a blistering pace, as well as the stiff finish, is a different matter but certainly looks a nice weapon for Simon Munir, who has a few exciting novices this year. I am on LS for a few quid at 14/1, he is around the 5/1 mark at time of writing. War Sound made a very impressive start to his career at Exeter and looks to be held in the highest regard. He is 33/1 for the Supreme and Neptune at the time of writing, if he beats Emerging Talent, especially if impressive he could come right to the fore of the markets. Has to be worth an each way tickle for interest in both just in case he is the real deal. Has the name of a proper horse too. Ran very disappointingly but race wasn't run to suit and the huge delay before the race can't have been ideal for such an inexperienced horse. Potentially worth another chance but needs to learn to settle, a strongly run Supreme or Neptune will suit if he goes to the Festival. Now looks a NR for the Supreme so another slip in the bin!! Alvisio Ville now back on track for this race. Seen suggestions he ran out of puff last time whereas I originally thought he had been outpaced. Either way he is probably worth another chance and I'll have a bit of 20/1 before that disappears to go with earlier slips. A place would be great, more bets riding on him than I thought.
Ante-post bets:
L'Ami Serge 14/1 - unplaced
Alvisio Ville 20/1 - unplaced
Alvisio Ville 20/1 - unplaced
The Arkle is an interesting one and my main ante-post bet will hopefully be in the line up. Un De Sceaux has beaten everything asked of him in impressive fashion apart from when he fell, though the substance of the form is yet to be tested. There are rumours he will be off to France instead but I hope they aren't true, would love to see him at the festival, and so would my wallet! He is now the 9/4 fav and I can't say I would back him at that price now. It doesn't look the best renewal but Gilgamboa and Josses Hill are very worthy of their place, the latter is a slightly bigger price than I expected at 12/1 despite being unimpressive last time. Vibrato Valtat is a horse I have backed plenty before but would only imagine a place at best for that one. I would be very disappointed if he could handle the likes of Un De Sceaux anyway. I did hear that Vautour is being aimed at this race from someone usually very reliable. Problem is one man says one thing and another says JLT and there will even be one or two suggesting QMCC still. I hope he goes to the JLT to leave this for UDS but if UDS does go to France then Vautour looks huge at 8/1 if he is coming here. There has been a few quid for him and is as short as 5's with a few firms. He is also that price for JLT, so if you aren't sure you could always back him for both. Will hold a favourites chance wherever he ends up. Gilgamboa is also shorter price for the JLT than this so not really sure what to make of it all at the moment. I just hope UDS runs because he will pay for the week in just the second race of the four day festival. Clarcam worth a mention too, looked a different horse since his wind operation and this is his likely target, being backed too. Screw the rest, after his unreal performance at Leopardstown he showed how good he really was and if he gets there fit and well on the morning he just needs a clear round to win it. He had a turn of foot like a world class horse and made some serious horses look very ordinary. What can beat him? The occasion possibly, he wears earplugs anyway and can get worked up. This is my only concern and it's very minor. He will go off in front and won't be troubled, Ruby couldn't pull him up at the end of the last run and he stayed 20f on heavy over hurdles in France so claims of 'won't get up the hill' are total nonsense. There are zero serious reasons to oppose this horse. He just has to jump, like all the rest I suppose. Banker.
Ante-post bets:
Un De Sceaux 6/1, 5/1, 4/1 - Winner
The Champion Hurdle doesn't look the best renewal in the world but maybe that's unfair as last year's was such a cracker. Will be great to see TNO vs Jezki vs Faugheen up the hill though. Faugheen could take some pegging back mind. Nothing else should get involved unless The Fly runs again in which case I'll be cheering the old boy on. No bet. I just wish poor Our Conor was still here, that ruined the festival for me last year losing him, smashing horse, great looker too. I have decided to have a little ante-post punt, but it is a small one. As I said above this is a race to watch but Arctic Fire may still be a little underestimated in the market and Mullins' comments in the RP caught the eye. Probably only place money and wouldn't be my strongest bet but little tickle anyway for some interest. Promises to be a cracker.
Ante-post bets:
Arctic Fire 20/1 - placed
Ante-post bets:
Arctic Fire 20/1 - placed
Mares Hurdle looks to be Annie Power's to lose if she is fit and if she runs. I'm on Aurore D'Estruval for a few quid at 9/1 after she impressed me earlier in the season, I'm happy where I stand here but if Annie Power runs I will be collecting each way money only I think. Wouldn't back her at current price mind. Since been ruled out due to injury.
The Neptune at time of writing is wide open. It's 8/1 the field and it's anybody's guess but one horse I have backed at this stage is Tell Us More. Got nailed on the line by stablemate Mckinley earlier in the year suggesting a potential drop in trip which brings the Supreme into play. (20/1) People saying TUM has more speed than Douvan etc but in my opinion Tell Us More is the Mullins main Neptune horse. Excuses were made for his defeat to his stablemate but we will see what TUM has to offer in March. That said 25/1 does look fair enough for Mckinley. Don't be suprised if the trainer makes some unexpected and drastic moves though. I can't resist a punt on Our Sam either for Henderson. His stable debut form is bulletproof and he is out again today with a leading chance, as the Neptune is so wide open he could be the new favourite if he does something special later on. Despite winning his race they aren't planning on a tilt at the Neptune as I understand. Therefore am scratching my bet. Of course I'll still have the slip just in case things change but very likely they won't. He is a potential for the Albert Bartlett too but skipping the festival looks the likely option at this stage. Despite completely missing the plunge on Alvisio Ville, 8/1 is still a fair price in a wide open Neptune. As I mentioned above, he is apparently the real deal, so i'll have a little on him for this race. Still 8/1 the field but won't be if he wins today. Ran disappointingly and now 20/1 again, will have a couple on that in case they find something wrong but Albert Bartlett a potential possibly? << Since been confirmed he goes to the Supreme so that mad plunge on him before he ran last time was cash down the drain. Nichols Canyon now heads the market but it's still wide open, Outlander has to have a great chance too and the Neptune is said to be right up his street and more to come from him. Tell Us More has hit a few funny prices on the machine and isn't working that well at home either supposedly. Looks like another one down the drain but will still keep hoping for now. Supreme bound!
Not backed anything in the RSA but if Don Poli heads there he will hold every chance. 5/1 for both him and King's Palace make limited appeal however. Coneygree is a horse I have followed this year and I would love him to run well but whether he quite has the class to win an RSA I am not so sure. What a performance from Coneygree at the weekend, looks the real deal to me. Looks as if the Gold Cup cpuld now be on the cards after jumping and travelling supremely well. Hope he runs a big one, lovely horse. Looks a cracker and I have now included Don Poli in a few multiples here and there. He is the one they all have to beat but I won't be playing anything as a single in this with any great confidence.
The QMCC laregley revolves around one animal. The magnificent Sprinter Sacre not been seen since pulling up with an apparent heart murmur. Due to run today and is as short as 10/11 which offers no value to me at all. IF they have him back to his best and IF he still retains his ability and that heart problem hasn't hindered his exuberance or jumping prowess then fair enough. But they are big if's and I won't listen to any argument suggesting that to be value. The second favourite for the QMCC Sire De Grugy is biggish at 5/1 but then he has had his injury problems too. If SS doesn't run, that 5/1 will quickly become 5/2 and probably shorter. The one I will chance despite never personally warming to the horse is Champagne Fever. Despite being tried in the King George (and running very respectably) 2 miles is his optimum trip and with doubts about the front two he has to be value at 10/1 despite the fact he is also entered up and well fancied by some for the Ryanair. Al Ferof would be a fascinating contender and it could be the day everything falls right for him but nothing else should be classy enough to win. If Dodging Bullets or Uxizandre can win a QMCC then it is a weak renewal, fact. The two greys are the interesting runners, but I couldn't put you off taking some 5/1 about Sire De Grugy too. Sprinter Sacre ran a good race on reappearance despite not winning and you would be a fool to rule him out. He will come on for the run an awful lot and Barry wasn't overly hard on him. Whether he is quite the same horse I don't know, we will find out on the day. He is a juicy price IF they get him back. Sire De Grugy was probably about 80% fit on reappearance from a serious injury but still travelled with menace before unseating Jamie Moore a few from home. He will come on a lot for that, and connections won't mind what happened yesterday. He will be 100% on QMCC day and 7/1 now makes him extremely backable each way at least. Could boil down to a two horse race with the mighty Sprinter Sacre because at both these horses' best, they are a class apart, but I'll take some 7/1 about SDG at the bigger price and with less to prove. Since showed he is still top class with some unreal leaps and despite conceding lumps of weight his class shone through. You won't find that 7/1 now and with SDG and Champagne Fever on side, I can't see how I won't see a return on this race.
Ante Post bets:
Champagne Fever 10/1 - NR
Sire De Grugy 7/1 - unplaced
I am ashamed to admit I have backed three horses all trained by one man in the Champion Bumper. Bellshill, Bordini and at a huge price a few of my hard earned on Fulham Road. (NR) Looking over this blog again it looks like I have backed everything of Mullins' but looking at his record at the fesitval this could be no bad thing. In race like this I just back what I am told by people who know better than me so that's what I have done, am sure you will have picked out your own. Just three little plays more for interest for me tbh, not a race I play heavily in. Let's just hope they all come home safe which very sadly they didn't last year. I did the same then too, backing a horse I was told to back. Stack The Deck was held in the highest regard but broke down in the race and was put to sleep, a huge loss to the yard. The cruel irony being that it is the one and only flat race of the week. Christ knows what he beat but you need some engine to do what See The World did on racecourse debut. The stiff finish at Cheltenham will suit and if following a straighter course he surely has to be bang there. He was well regarded anyway and they are good judges over there. No concrete plans yet but it will certainly be in the pipeline and 25/1 looks huge with Paddy Power when you watch this back: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=BL7zEXIboW0 - Now a NR after scoping badly. Shame, but still a fascinating prospect. Just an update on Bellshill. I keep hearing things every week that make me put another few quid on each way and as it stands he would be my best result of the festival. This was the main one I was given months back by someone in the know who says forget the markets or the media, Bellshill is the Mullins number one. With things I am hearing weekly he isn't wrong, I will be investing a few quid each week or everytime I put up a winner. Still a huge price.
Ante-post bets:
Belshill 25/1 (best bet) - unplaced
Bordini 16/1 - unplaced
The JLT is the biggest puzzle for me at the moment. Everyone has their own thoughts and opinions but mine are the following. I think Valseur Lido won't run unless he fails to stay his first try at 3m this Sunday. I think Vautour is a huge price if he does run which seems to be looking likelier and likelier now. Close Touch is one to keep on side. He is right up there with the best of Henderson's Novices and came back from injury with a facile success last time. He lines up again today and I think he is the real deal and this is his target race. 12/1 won't exist come 1pm I don't think and he's my main play each way. One other horse that has slipped under the radar is Vroum Vroum Mag. The mare looks smart, another weapon in the Ricci artillery and at 16/1 is worthy of a few quid each way as she looks likely to line up and will have a handy mares allowance too. Not a massive bet at this stage, can't wait to see how the Mullins team is deployed for this one but if VL goes RSA and Vautour goes for the Arkle then VVM will be the yard's number one on the day and 16/1 will be long gone. Small each way, Close Touch my main bet. Close Touch ran a stinker finishing last of four but he lost a shoe, was hampered and never travelled that well plus bounce factor could also have played a part. Worth another chance I think especially if ground turns up soft and is now out to 25/1 which is worth a few extra quid each way. Gilgamboa is my latest addition and is a replacement for Vroum Vroum Mag as she now looks unlikely to line up. This race now looks the surefire target for Gilgamboa after being outpaced in UDS race at Leopardstown. He wasn't given a hard time and the greater stamina test should suit. Vautour looks hard to beat but this race isn't strong and standout 14/1 with Paddy Power offers plenty of each way profit at the least. Seems I got Close Touch all wrong. Awful and pretty hopeless run last time, still think a bigger field and softer ground could see him in better light but has to be unlikely to turn up now so binning this slip. Gilgamboa also beaten so a terrible day for my JLT bets, the perils of AP betting. Gilgamboa is a top class horse and Cheltenham will suit him. Now out to 25/1 and in a weak looking JLT I am going to keep the faith for a good run for my money. << Since been scratched and I can see why tbh. Completely ballsed the JLT up ante-post, hope I have better luck on the day!
One of my favourite horses in training looks likely to be heading to the Ryanair and I can't not back him at a standout 8/1. (Cut to 6/1 after beating Champagne Fever) Please take the opportunity to go and see him in the paddock if you are at the festival this year, some brute. Dynaste will run his race as always, Cue Card could place but he's not the same horse he was a year or two ago and the next few in the market are either not good enough or aren't running in this race. With Dynaste ruled out for the season I had to look at this race again. Don Cossack is now the favourite but wanted to find another at a big each way price. Ummed and ahhed until someone I really respect on Twitter made a case for Ballynagour. Trip too far last time, very effective when fresh and bolted up here last year in the Byrne Plate. With the stablemate out this horse now looks Pipe's number one and at a huge 33/1 he has to be an each way play dropping back down in trip, with this race looking the likely target.
Ante-post bets:
Don Cossack 8/1 - placed
Ballynagour 33/1 - NR
More of That is quite tempting at 4/1 but the World Hurdle makes limited appeal to me at this stage from a betting proposition. That said the favourite will be half that price or shorter if he turns up on the day so from that perspective he offers a bit of ante-post value I suppose. Race blown wide open now the fav looks unlikely to run. Probably won't bet in this race even on the day, one to watch.
Had two AP plays in the Triumph and won't be playing anything else unless something on the day looks as amazing as Tiger Roll did last year in the paddock. Peace and Co looked like something from another planet when destroying some okay horses on debut for Nicky Henderson. He pulled his rider's arms out all the way round and the jockey was still taking a pull as he cruised into the lead while everything else was under the pump. He might not have beaten too much but he made them look very moderate and this horse could be anything. I took some 8/1, you now won't find much better than 11/4. Exciting horse and I'm sold. The other one I backed ages ago, probably my first AP Cheltenham bet (hence why i forgot it probably) is Kalkir for Ricci and Mullins at 14/1, only a smidgen shorter now. These two will go off fav and second fav I think so I'm delighted with my book for this race. Also added Dicosimo to my ante-post plays, 33/1 too big, I had heard very good reports and he asserted very impressively last time and the step up in trip sure to suit. Peace and Co confirmed he was a good thing at Cheltenham. He was very keen early held up this time in a ploy to help him learn to settle. He wasn't overly impressive and needs to improve a tad but the stronger pace will suit him in March and he travelled extremely strongly. Karezak was only 3L behind and it's mad that he is 25/1 while P&C is now as short as 6/4. Kalkir was a disappointing 2nd behind stablemate Petite Parisienne last time but may surprise a few.
Ante-post bets:
Peace and Co 8/1 - Winner
Kalkir 16/1 - unplaced
Dicosimo 33/1 - unplaced
Backed a few for the Albert Bartlett. Black Hercules is the Mullins number one I think and has got a bit of my cash at 10/1 but No More Heroes is the one I am keener on. He won his maiden hurdle on reappearance without coming out of first gear but was then dumped in the deep end in a Grade 2 Novice Hurdle at Navan. He assetively beat the Mullins jolly, Shaneshill, and the way he stayed on in the closing stages really stayed with me and he looks a proper stayer in the making. The Cheltenham hill and going up in trip to 3m look to be perfect. I am on at 8/1, but couldn't put you off having a go at current best price of 6/1, worthy favourite and sure to be a lot shorter on the day. Another I somehow forgot. Only remembered as he is running today (Jan 23rd) If it turns up soft then Zeroeshadesofgrey has to be a serious player on the day, hugely progressive and you won't hear the trainer say a bad word about him. I am close to backing half the field here but heard this evening that Value At Risk is likely to be aimed at the Albert Bartlett. 14/1 won't be available if he wins tomorrow, small go each way in case he is as serious as his trainer thinks he is Didn't win but lost nothing in defeat and was out to 20/1 for a short time but now been backed in again. No More Heroes ran a below par race and can now be backed at 14/1 which is madness, going in again. I'll forgive him the run as he jumped poorly and the stamina test moving up in trip at Cheltenham will suit him better. It is a small possibility he could miss this festival but in my mind he is a likely runner. Zeroeshadesofgrey is now a non runner so scratching him. Can't not have a small each way on Out Sam too. His form is serious and I had originally punted him for the Neptune. At 20/1 he is worth an each way bet and I think there is some confidence behind him. Backed four for this race now, VAR probably being my best but only just. If I don't see a return on this race I'll close my account.
Antepost bets:
Black Hercules 10/1 - unplaced
No More Heroes 14/1 - placed
Value at Risk 14/1 - unplaced
Out Sam 20/1 - fell
The Gold Cup market has Silviniaco Conti as worthy favourite. I haven't backed him outright but couldn't put you off , 3/1 is fair. I am on a KG/GC double with him though as I mentioned on Twitter before he won so easily at Kempton. People say he doesn't like Cheltenham need to stop betting and use their brains. He has ran there three times. A staying on third behind Menorah and Cue Card in 2010, a fall when going best in the 2013 Gold Cup and a two length forth in this last year when beating the favourite and title holder Bob's Worth after they got racing way too early. He deserves to win and I hope he wins. If you are moronic enough to believe 'he doesn't like that hill' then just block me now tbh, I love opinions but stupidity does get boring after a while. Rant over and moving on - I was so happy to see Road To Riches win so well beating some proper horses in the Lexus. He really asserted well in the closing stages and has to be a serious Gold Cup contender now. I backed him on the day and also advised jumping on him at 20/1 for the festival feature before he ran. That 20/1 is gone, 8/1 now best price. Finally I must mention Holywell again as I have so many times on Twitter. Jonjo horses not been running great and neither has this lad this year. His jumping has gone to pot but if anyone is a master of getting a horse ready for one day, for one big performance, it's Jonjo. If everything falls right he can win a Gold Cup I believe. You won't see the blinkers reapplied till Gold Cup day and that day is the only day that matters. Seen so many people writing him off but no lay slips for some reason?! 14/1 he gets some of my cash each way and I hope he runs a mighty race. Think I have got a strong hand in the GC antepost market when you factor in a decent double if the favourite wins too. Have decided to back Silviniaco Conti for the Gold Cup outright as 7/2 shoule be 9/4 and I think he will be very well backed on the day. He is the one they all have to beat and looks worth a bet.
Antepost bets:
Holywell 14/1 - unplaced
Road To Riches 20/1 - placed
Silviniaco Conti 7/2 - unplaced
Without Balthazar King, Any Currency is surely going to be going off a lot shorter than 6/1 available now. Looks one of the each way bets of the meeting as he jumps so well, stays all day and loves the cross country course at Cheltenham. Only beaten a nose last year, front two well clear. Looks a cracking bet paying 4 places at 1/4 odds. The biggest danger could be Quantitative Easing and he may be worth a small ew coverbet on the day.
Any Currency 6/1 - placed
Handicap and minor race bets:
Others I will be backing wherever they run will be the grey Dawalan - tonnes of ability and some funny races he has ran this year, was hammered in the betting at last year's festival but didn't run his race, can get his revenge this time, potentially in the Coral Cup. Since won very nicely on first try at 3m which brings the Pertemps into play. I hope they bite the bullet and supplement him for a World Hurdle crack but that might be next year now. Really classy animal and I am a big fan of his, can you tell? He has a stone or two in hand, I am sure and is being plotted for a festival win in my mind. Robinsfirth is another horse of immense ability but still not exactly sure where he will go. He is a big 3m chaser in the making and anything he does this season a bonus but one to keep very much on side. (misses festival) Finally Ericht is worth a mention. Another who is very good on his day, likes to be up with the pace when seen to best, been quietly dropping in the handicap after being ridden in rear this season, one to keep an eye out for in one of the festival handicaps. Green Flag is another one to add to the list. Ran a huge eyecatcher at the Festival last year when outpaced but flew home and been campaigned this year with the festival in mind, will have a cracking chance wherever he ends up. (Grand National bound) Olofi is another horse that has been very highly tried and showed himself in very good light these past few months. He is always overpriced in the market and we will finally see just how much talent he has in one of the lesser races at the festival. (No entries) I was convinced Alaivan was a Jonjo plot horse last year and he ran a good race but not quite what I expected. He is better than his mark and could be interesting going up in trip. One to look out for in March. Edeymi recieved a questionable ride to say the least and is probably the most obvious 'plot' horse going into the festival. Indian Castle is crying out for a drop back in trip and ran a very encouraging prep run. Tap Night may not get in but if he does he is very well handicapped and will be off a very low weight. He needed a good tun last time when falling but now we just have to wait and see. 3m may have been preferable but he'll be lucky to sneak in. Dell Arca has a big one in him and he looks like a Cheltenham plot. The yard will want to win the race at it's named after the trainers father and 25/1 needs to be snapped up before it disappears. That said just seen Mckinley entered as connections want to make most of his mark rather than run in Supreme or Neptune. He's absolutely fired in here and has to have outstanding chance at 16/1, mad price.
Tracker:
Dawalan (14/1 Pertemps) - unplaced
Ericht (40/1 Byrne) - unplaced
Alaivan - NR
Edeymi (12/1 Pertemps) - unplaced
Indian Castle (25/1 Hcap Chase) - placed
Tap Night (16/1 Byrne) - unplaced
Dell Arca (25/1 Coral Cup) - fell
McKinley (16/1 Martin Pipe) - unplaced
Three other potential handicap good things could be a trio of classy horses that have to have a sound chance if connections decide to go the handicap route:
Taquin Du Seuil (goes Ryanair)
Thomas Crapper (16/1 Nov Hcap Chase) - placed
Un Ace (14/1 Byrne Plate) - unplaced
Any additional notes or updates will be added above in bold. Information and stories from various Cheltenham Festival Preview evenings will be added below.
Multiples:
Everyone will have their own ideas of a life changing bet and every year at least one or two people land a proper biggy. I've had various all over the place but my best few would probably be below. They are using current prices at time of writing.
Doubles/trebles/accumulators:
Don Cossack 4/1 - placed
Don Poli 4/1 -Winner
Sire De Grugy 4/1 - unplaced
Multiples:
Everyone will have their own ideas of a life changing bet and every year at least one or two people land a proper biggy. I've had various all over the place but my best few would probably be below. They are using current prices at time of writing.
Doubles/trebles/accumulators:
Don Cossack 4/1 - placed
Don Poli 4/1 -Winner
Sire De Grugy 4/1 - unplaced
Silviniaco Conti 7/2 - unplaced
Any Currency 6/1 - placed
EW doubles/trebles/accumulators:
Bellshill 20/1 - unplaced
Alvisio Ville 20/1 - unplaced
Value At Risk 14/1 - unplaced
Dicosimo 16/1 - unplaced
Dawalan 14/1 - unplaced
McKinley 16/1 - unplaced
^^ went well!!
Handicap good things ew Lucky 15:
Dawalan 14/1 Pertemps - unplaced
Un Ace 14/1 Byrne Plate - unplaced
Thomas Crapper 16/1 Nov Chase - placed
Mckinley 16/1 Martin Pipe - unplaced
Preview evening quotes and gossip:
Question to Value at Risk Owner/Breeder: Should we back him? - 'Yes and for RSA next year'
'Don Cossack is now the horse we always thought he could be' - Davy Russell
Apparently Barry Geraghty has been telling everyone that Sprinter Sacre is back and will win the Champion Chase.
'If Bradstock runs Coneygree in the Gold Cup they should take his trainer's license off him, he'll win the RSA' - Davy Russell
'If Un De Sceaux gets to the start without getting worked up, your money is safe' - Davy Russell
'Douvan is a machine' - nearly everybody!!
'He's a bit special, knew going to the start the last day that something was off' - Bryan Cooper on No More Heroes
'If Vautour ran in Arkle he would be 2nd' - Katie Walsh talking about Un De Sceaux and Vautour.
Michael O'Leary (Gigginstown) apparently told Bryan Cooper that he won't leave him in the weighing room while Patrick Mullins has a nice ride in the four miler, regarding Don Poli. RSA bound.
'Don Poli as much of a certainty as Douvan' - Katie Walsh
'The faster Coneygree goes, the further Don Poli will beat him' - Katie Walsh
'5/4 Faugheen is ridiculous' - Katie Walsh
'No such thing as a good thing at Cheltenham but Don Cossack is one of the best rides I have' - Bryan Cooper
'Definite hopes of first three' - Bryan Cooper regarding Road To Riches
'Annie won't come off the bridle' - Katie Walsh
Cheers for reading, please get involved and tweet me your fancies and longshots @THTRacing.
THT
Sunday, 23 November 2014
Racing Debates - What is Value?
There are so many misconceptions amongst the average punter in regards to value in my opinion. Below I give my very simplified take on value for the average punter. First of all what is value? Value for the everday bettor is solely based on an opinion. I.E - is the horse a bigger price than you expected? Does the horse have a greater chance of winning than the price suggests? The way I have always worked out a race is first of all look through the recent form of the runners, yard form, C/D winner etc and everything else in between. I don't look at forecast prices and I don't look at the early markets. I price up the race myself roughly in my head, (sometimes written down if really in the mood!) then I will open up oddschecker and see where we stand. Don't get me wrong, I have literally had entire markets completely upside down but by doing this you can compare your thoughts and the bookmakers and then try and find out why there is such a difference, if any.
There is always this battle of wit between punter and bookmaker, trying to out-smart eachother. Bookies sometimes offer surprisingly big prices and sucking people in (Captain Cat a good recent example) but the thing people forget is that bookmakers make mistakes. They price races up wrong, intentionally or otherwise. Happens everyday, nearly every race, there will always be at least one or two runners whose odds don't reflect anything like the horse's realistic chances of winning the race. Generally a runner catches the eye when first scanning the card and that's the one you concentrate on.
If the horse is a 5/1 poke in your head but a firm are offering 10/1, the first thing to do is ask why? Is there something you have missed? I go back, look again make sure I am happy with my 5/1 evaluation. Sometimes I am, sometimes I see I have missed something huge and the horse is suddenly 20's in my head. The key is being honest with yourself, discipline is the number one necessity in this game. If I can't find any reason why it is available to back at a double figure price, I would likely have a bet as I deem the bet to be good VALUE. I know this is really simplified but I don't want to go on all day.
The above doesn't consider bookies overrounds (approx 115% to 125%) so you have to be careful. You can't just make up your own market at any prices you please. There are various overround calculators out there to keep you on track. Alternitavely, you could use the forecast SP's as a reference. Problem is the person who has done those needs to know what they are talking about, and I have seen forecast SP's of 16/1 open at 5/2 and vice versa. Saying that, for those new to racing and the mathematics of betting, using the forecast SP's as a reference to actual prices available can be a good way to start to understand value.
The other thing worth mentioning is that value is more relevant and noticeable at shorter prices. If you have a horse at 20/1 in your mind but 33/1 is available you may think because there is 13pts difference that you have found a gold mine. Realistically this is not the case. Despite there being a big difference in terms of points, literally a few pounds can move a horse 33/1>>20/1 in the overnight market, and in the seconds before a race bookies can throw a 20/1 poke out to 33/1 in a blink of an eye. At your price and the bookmakers, the horse has a very slim chance of winning anyway, the difference isn't worth reading too much in to. However, if you have one priced at even money in your head and you see 7/4 available, this is the time to seriously consider having a bet. You may not think evs and 7/4 are that much different but see the comparison below.
The maths:
20/1 shot - 4.8% chance of winning
33/1 shot - 2.9% chance of winning
= 1.9% difference
Evs shot - 50% chance of winning
7/4 shot - 36.4% chance of winning
= 13.6% difference
This explains perfectly what I am trying to say. In these examples, the short prices are around seven times more relavant as a % difference than the bigger prices. This is partly because it takes a whole heap of cash to move a horse into even money from 7/4. Obviously the above is assuming you are a good judge, but as I said earlier, value is all about opinion. While opinions can never be right or wrong, you will find they get more accurate the more races you study and as you get a greater understanding of the mathematics behind the markets and bookmaking in general.
Remember a 1/4 shot can still be value. If you think the horse has a higher percentage of winning than his odds suggest, then true value punters should still see this as a betting opportunity. If the horse is a 1/8 poke in your head then there is a 8.9% difference in the bookmaker odds and the odds you think that best reflect the horse's chances. This means that effectively you are getting over four times the VALUE backing this 1/4 shot than you are backing the 33/1 shot in the above example. That hits it home doesn't it. Value doesn't mean the horse is a big price, value can be found at any price and as shown above it is actually at the shorter prices that the real value can be found.
So why is value out there? Partly it is because bookmakers don't spend enough time properly looking through races to find the horse's true chance of winning. Some bookies are lazier than others, but generally the runners are priced up on form. Overnight markets are something I prefer didn't exist, it can literally take a few pounds here and there to completely crush a price and ruin it for everybody. This is because there is no liquidity in the markets and if it were up to me, all prices would be released by all bookmakers at 8am on the morning of the race. However, as this isn't the case, I will try and back horses at the best available prices I can get, as would anyone.
I had a good look through the cards yesterday afternoon and picked out a few potential interesting runners. I roughly priced up the markets for all the races I was interested in, then had a look on oddschecker at the early prices. Below was my thinking process for my three on the blog:
Jupiter Rex - Had this one at about 2/1, race not especially strong, stable in form, somehow dropped 2lbs by the handicapper for reappearance run which he would have come on a lot for, conditions to suit. I said to myself anything over 2/1 I will have a bet. I thought the horse had around a 33.3% chance of winning. Looked at the odds, 10/3 out there (23.1%) which is over 10% difference, safe to say I snapped that up and made Jupiter Rex my NAP - but at that price. He isn't my NAP at 6/4 available now, because 6/4 suggests a 40% chance of winning which I think is too short and doesn't represent VALUE. This is why getting on early is so important.
Xaarcet - Had this one at about 9/2 (18.2%) Race is terrible, yard starting to fire, won at the course, very well handicapped, should go well fresh and conditions to suit. 13/2 was available for this one (13.3%) so I backed it with that 4.9% cushion in mind. Is now around 5/2 which represents no value to me whatsoever. I wouldn't back my NB at 5/2 is what I am saying. (28.6%) I think the price is too short and in my opinion overestimates the horses chances. It was my NB at the price of 13/2.
Brantingham Breeze - I would have backed this one at 4/1. The opening price gave me a little bit of juice at 5/1, but only a small value percentage of 3.3%. If the horse was 10/1, it would have been my NAP as the difference would have been 10.9%, a greater difference than my NAP.
Value % or rating:
Jupiter Rex 10.2 = NAP
Xaarcet 4.9 = NB
Brantingham Breeze 3.3 = IWAC
Double figure differences don't happen that often, so Jupiter Rex was a strong selection for me, worthy of a decent punt. A staking system built on these percentages alone is something I may consider and trial, it's all about trying new things and trying to find an edge and more importantly having fun.
As I have said it is different for everyone, so you have to trust yourself and be honest with yourself, This is just my take, others will completely disagree and have their own opinions, which is why horseracing is such a fantastic sport.
Hope you enjoyed my ramblings and more importantly hope we nail a winner or two today.
THT
There is always this battle of wit between punter and bookmaker, trying to out-smart eachother. Bookies sometimes offer surprisingly big prices and sucking people in (Captain Cat a good recent example) but the thing people forget is that bookmakers make mistakes. They price races up wrong, intentionally or otherwise. Happens everyday, nearly every race, there will always be at least one or two runners whose odds don't reflect anything like the horse's realistic chances of winning the race. Generally a runner catches the eye when first scanning the card and that's the one you concentrate on.
If the horse is a 5/1 poke in your head but a firm are offering 10/1, the first thing to do is ask why? Is there something you have missed? I go back, look again make sure I am happy with my 5/1 evaluation. Sometimes I am, sometimes I see I have missed something huge and the horse is suddenly 20's in my head. The key is being honest with yourself, discipline is the number one necessity in this game. If I can't find any reason why it is available to back at a double figure price, I would likely have a bet as I deem the bet to be good VALUE. I know this is really simplified but I don't want to go on all day.
The above doesn't consider bookies overrounds (approx 115% to 125%) so you have to be careful. You can't just make up your own market at any prices you please. There are various overround calculators out there to keep you on track. Alternitavely, you could use the forecast SP's as a reference. Problem is the person who has done those needs to know what they are talking about, and I have seen forecast SP's of 16/1 open at 5/2 and vice versa. Saying that, for those new to racing and the mathematics of betting, using the forecast SP's as a reference to actual prices available can be a good way to start to understand value.
The other thing worth mentioning is that value is more relevant and noticeable at shorter prices. If you have a horse at 20/1 in your mind but 33/1 is available you may think because there is 13pts difference that you have found a gold mine. Realistically this is not the case. Despite there being a big difference in terms of points, literally a few pounds can move a horse 33/1>>20/1 in the overnight market, and in the seconds before a race bookies can throw a 20/1 poke out to 33/1 in a blink of an eye. At your price and the bookmakers, the horse has a very slim chance of winning anyway, the difference isn't worth reading too much in to. However, if you have one priced at even money in your head and you see 7/4 available, this is the time to seriously consider having a bet. You may not think evs and 7/4 are that much different but see the comparison below.
The maths:
20/1 shot - 4.8% chance of winning
33/1 shot - 2.9% chance of winning
= 1.9% difference
Evs shot - 50% chance of winning
7/4 shot - 36.4% chance of winning
= 13.6% difference
This explains perfectly what I am trying to say. In these examples, the short prices are around seven times more relavant as a % difference than the bigger prices. This is partly because it takes a whole heap of cash to move a horse into even money from 7/4. Obviously the above is assuming you are a good judge, but as I said earlier, value is all about opinion. While opinions can never be right or wrong, you will find they get more accurate the more races you study and as you get a greater understanding of the mathematics behind the markets and bookmaking in general.
Remember a 1/4 shot can still be value. If you think the horse has a higher percentage of winning than his odds suggest, then true value punters should still see this as a betting opportunity. If the horse is a 1/8 poke in your head then there is a 8.9% difference in the bookmaker odds and the odds you think that best reflect the horse's chances. This means that effectively you are getting over four times the VALUE backing this 1/4 shot than you are backing the 33/1 shot in the above example. That hits it home doesn't it. Value doesn't mean the horse is a big price, value can be found at any price and as shown above it is actually at the shorter prices that the real value can be found.
So why is value out there? Partly it is because bookmakers don't spend enough time properly looking through races to find the horse's true chance of winning. Some bookies are lazier than others, but generally the runners are priced up on form. Overnight markets are something I prefer didn't exist, it can literally take a few pounds here and there to completely crush a price and ruin it for everybody. This is because there is no liquidity in the markets and if it were up to me, all prices would be released by all bookmakers at 8am on the morning of the race. However, as this isn't the case, I will try and back horses at the best available prices I can get, as would anyone.
I had a good look through the cards yesterday afternoon and picked out a few potential interesting runners. I roughly priced up the markets for all the races I was interested in, then had a look on oddschecker at the early prices. Below was my thinking process for my three on the blog:
Jupiter Rex - Had this one at about 2/1, race not especially strong, stable in form, somehow dropped 2lbs by the handicapper for reappearance run which he would have come on a lot for, conditions to suit. I said to myself anything over 2/1 I will have a bet. I thought the horse had around a 33.3% chance of winning. Looked at the odds, 10/3 out there (23.1%) which is over 10% difference, safe to say I snapped that up and made Jupiter Rex my NAP - but at that price. He isn't my NAP at 6/4 available now, because 6/4 suggests a 40% chance of winning which I think is too short and doesn't represent VALUE. This is why getting on early is so important.
Xaarcet - Had this one at about 9/2 (18.2%) Race is terrible, yard starting to fire, won at the course, very well handicapped, should go well fresh and conditions to suit. 13/2 was available for this one (13.3%) so I backed it with that 4.9% cushion in mind. Is now around 5/2 which represents no value to me whatsoever. I wouldn't back my NB at 5/2 is what I am saying. (28.6%) I think the price is too short and in my opinion overestimates the horses chances. It was my NB at the price of 13/2.
Brantingham Breeze - I would have backed this one at 4/1. The opening price gave me a little bit of juice at 5/1, but only a small value percentage of 3.3%. If the horse was 10/1, it would have been my NAP as the difference would have been 10.9%, a greater difference than my NAP.
Value % or rating:
Jupiter Rex 10.2 = NAP
Xaarcet 4.9 = NB
Brantingham Breeze 3.3 = IWAC
Double figure differences don't happen that often, so Jupiter Rex was a strong selection for me, worthy of a decent punt. A staking system built on these percentages alone is something I may consider and trial, it's all about trying new things and trying to find an edge and more importantly having fun.
As I have said it is different for everyone, so you have to trust yourself and be honest with yourself, This is just my take, others will completely disagree and have their own opinions, which is why horseracing is such a fantastic sport.
Hope you enjoyed my ramblings and more importantly hope we nail a winner or two today.
THT
Saturday, 11 October 2014
Racing Debates - Is it possible to fix a race?
Betting scandals and market/race fixing accusations are rarely out of the headlines in racing, it is something the average punter is well aware of. First lets ask the question - what is fixing a race? Is it all jockeys and/or trainers/owners colluding to arrange the outcome of a race for financial gain? Or is it simply entering a horse that has no realistic chance whether that be by connections' choice or the horses' natural ability. This further widens the opening of racing's dark and unexposed underbelly. Is running a horse that is not at full racing fitness a form of race fixing? Lets explore these.
The Non Trier - I am not being a wild and crazed conspiracy theorist here, but the first rule that anyone new to racing and betting on racing should know is this: Not all horses in the race are there to win. If they were, we would all be millionaires because a very simple study of a formbook would tell you all the answers. Horses with race winning ability are run everyday where connections have absolutely no intention of winning. This can be for various reasons including wanting a reduced handicap mark, the race being used as a prep run for another race in near future or day I say it for certain people in the know to make a few quid. Owners and even some trainers and jockeys have been convicted for laying their own horses in the past and wouldn't surprise me if it happened again. Non triers happen every single day, that's not a conspiracy theory, that's a fact. Now lets get back to the original question, is this race fixing? Knowing that the horse you have entered in a race is not there to win. Most will say no, but a few will argue it is and I can see why. However, this will never stop, despite the fact it could be seen as unfair to punters etc, this is part of racing. Without non triers there would be no every day run-of-the-mill racing and I am comfortable with this, otherwise I wouldn't risk my money.
How easy is it to do? Very. Much easier than you would think. Flat jockeys probably have a tougher job as the races are shorter and there are no obstacles to overcome. How many times have you seen a naturally front running horse anchored out the back for a few races then suddenly reverts to front running next time and nothing gets past? This is just one example. In jumps races you can miss the start by a few lengths, take a pull for a few seconds and in a 10-15 runner field you are 30L off the pace from the get go and you realistically have no chance even if you wanted to win, it's worryingly easy though some jockeys are better at it than others! Also those with riding experience will themselves know there are various ways to unsettle a horse, or make out you are trying to push a horse on when actually you are doing the complete opposite. However, the fact is that jockeys have to do this. Their reward? Winners. They pull the horse three times successfully then they get the ride when it's go time, very simple really. That's the way the industry works. Form books are useful, but a book telling you when connections are trying would be even handier!
Horse fitness - Similar to the non trier in the sense that you are sending a horse to a race with no realistic chance of winning as it is not race fit or 'needs the run.' In my mind a horse coming back from a long absence will benefit from a race, of course it will. However, when trainer's say 'will need the run' are they just saying 'I haven't got him fit enough for this race?' I have thought about this for years and a few times the question of whether this 'needs the run' business is actually total nonsense has crossed my mind. That said I don't think it can be called a form of race fixing, after all 'prep runs' are commonplace and there are even designated prep races such as the Prix Niel for the Arc. However, sending a horse to the races mid season that hasn't been up the gallops in three weeks is totally wrong. Trainers have a responsibility to the sport to get their horses to a reasonable standard of fitness for a race, and any trainer that doesn't is being extremely deceitful and unfair in my opinion, especially if the reasoning for the lack of work is to ensure their horse doesn't win. Another form of the non trier, but the jockey can throw everything at the poor animal and it simply can't run to his mark due to the fact that it isn't race fit and shouldn't be running.
The race itself - This one is more alarming. Connections or jockeys conspiring to pre-arrange the result of a race and then riding accordingly. I like to think that this never happens but you look at some races and think that either some of the jockeys are stupid or just downright rubbish or alternatively; it is not possible for seasoned and experienced professionals to have acted in such a way by accident. 'Misjudging the pace' is a common one. We have all seen it before, we saw it earlier today at Chepstow. One horse blazes off in front by 20 odd lengths and the jockeys behind let him go. They presumably expect the leader to come back to them, but like today, sometimes they don't. The panic buttons were pressed behind but the winner had already flown. This is usually seen more in apprentice/amateur races due to lack of race-riding experience but with the likes of Richard Johnson and Barry Geraghty in behind you have to wonder how such professionals can make such a devastating mistake. The likelihood is that despite the price, the Skelton horse was better handicapped than the other jockeys thought, but Dan Skelton is banging in the winners and this should have been something that the other jockeys were thinking. That said it was an enterprising ride from Harry and I am not for one moment suggesting this race was in anyway fixed or pre-determined but such awful misjudgements do make people question integrity of the sport. I think the other jockeys should have to answer for such mistakes though the BHA think differently as no enquiries were made whatsoever. Make of that what you will.
A telephone call between Paul Mulrennan and Martin Dwyer discussing their rides in an upcoming race from 2010 emerged in the summer. Of course jockeys talk but if I remember rightly Dwyer was trying to convince Mulrennan that Mulrennan had no chance on his mount and he was going to back the mount of David Allan and was trying to convince Mulrennan to do the same. Jockeys aren't allowed to bet, so this is one cause for concern but if Mulrennan has backed another horse in the race, he isn't exactly going to be throwing the kitchen sink at his mount is he? David Allan's mount subsequently won the race. Remember that this is just the stuff that has come to light, no doubt there are many things the racing public may never know about. Is this race fixing? Even if Mulrennan's mount had no chance, is this still race fixing? Certainly an interesting argument.
The fact is that people talk. In the build up to a race, jockeys will talk to other jockeys and trainers and half the time any one jockey in a race has ridden for at least one other yard in the same race so they can get a pretty good idea of the likely outcome before a race and with the added knowledge of which horses are likely to be on a 'going day' you can see that it wouldn't be hard to have a pretty good outcome of the potential top three in a race. If the odd jockey is having a bet, which no doubt a few do, or at least their mates are then will they ride accordingly? Is this race fixing?
Sadly corruption does exist and as racing fans we know that. Most will only choose to notice it when their money is involved however, which to be honest makes me quite sad. Racing is our sport, we love it to death. The bad comes with the good like everything and as genuine racing fans, we put up with non triers and dodgy gambles because we could not live without racing, and more notably remember, racing could not live without us, the typical racing fan and punter who fund the industry.
It's a very interesting debate, it all depends what you consider to be race fixing. It has been exposed in many sports, boxing, football, snooker to name a few, all for one reason, money. More and more people in the game forgetting the reason they fell in love with it in the first place - the adrenaline rush of a race, the magnificent animal itself, the thoroughbred, the great people in the industry and the amazing moments and great days out racing can bring to an individual. They forget all of this for a quick buck and this is ironically the greatest 'fix' of them all.
Thanks for taking the time to read my ramblings. Please offer your own views and any future suggestions for 'racing debates' that you want to see discussed on blog.
@THTRacing
Sunday, 14 September 2014
NH horses to follow 2014/2015
The jumps season isn't far away at all and this year I have compiled a list of potentially promising horses to follow throughout the season, some with a little help from some knowledgable folk on Twitter. Some may be duds, some may win a few little races, a couple may make the festival and who knows, maybe one of the names below has the potential to be NH's next superstar. I think we missed one last season, especially with the absence of Sprinter Sacre. Of course we had the festival winners, most notably the unbeaten Faugheen and Vautor - will be exciting to watch their development this year. While the superb festival was marred by the tragic loss of equine life, most notably the very promising Our Conor, it is still the greatest racing spectacle on Earth and I am already counting down the days till we hear that roar in March. Lets hope a few of these make it to Prestbury Park. Have rated them one star to five stars which is just my opinion of their potential, also made a shortlist of must follows at the end.
MA DU FOU ***** - Looked to be struggling at short odds on debut when outpaced 5f out but steadily asserted and ended up storming clear when the penny dropped. Might not have beat much but will come on a ton for that and rates a very interesting prospect to go novice hurdling with over further. Rumoured to be the best Warren has had up his gallops. 32
BLAKLION *** - Looks a nice prospect for the Twiston-Davies yard bolting up on debut beating a well regarded sort by 15L. Showed some guts next time to win, beating a nice horse of McCain's then was put away until recent reappearance when winning in workmanlike but cosy enough fashion at Perth. Should see him at the Festival. 12132
NO DEAL ***** - Last seen in Jan 2013 winning a maiden hurdle at Ayr. A 7yo who has only had three starts due to injury but reportedly making up for lost time at home and being touted
as a potential Grand National horse at some point in the future. Should be ready to strike on overdue reapparance and go on to much better things. 41
VERAWAL *** - Very impressive on debut for top yard, big disappointment next time but can be forgiven; looks a lovely prospect and is one to keep very much on side this campaign and maybe in seasons to come. 3336F0
TELL US MORE ***** - Tanked his way through his sole run slamming his opposition. This son of Scorpion sold for nearly £300k at auction last year and a huge campaign is expected from him this year. 126
TAJ BADALANDABAD *** - Not 100% sure what he has beat so far but nothing has really got close in two starts to date, could be anything for the Pipe team this year. 41144
A VOS GARDES *** - Looks classy and is well regarded at home. Still immature and a big baby but world at his feet. Displayed a good attitude on his two starts to date and can go on to bigger and better things in time. 3122
FLETCHERS FLYER **** - This Harry Fry trained 6yo has only had two starts but looks a stayer judged on his very good runs so far and one to watch as he is gradually stepped up in trip. 3112
SUNTIEP **** - The less said about the ride he recieved at the festival the better but was clearly the best horse in the race and a campaign targetting the Grand National beckons.
KOOLALA *** - I really like this mare and she has always been well thought of at home. Hope to see her at the Festival in March as there is a lot more to come at 3m+ this season. 57
ONE TRACK MIND *** - Another exciting once raced youngster for up and coming trainer Warren Greatrex, always looked the winner and had what could be a few nice types in behind, promising. 1U41
GRANDE ANTARCTIQUE ** - A wildcard from a small yard but one that should be capable of winning races when sent novice hurdling this season, promising running on 2nds in two good soft ground bumpers and exciting for small trainer. U263
RUTHERGLEN *** - Won his first three juvenile hurdles before running a screamer in the Triumph, getting going too late on ground that was on the quick side for him, exciting season ahead.
GAITWAY *** - Green on debut vs experienced rival but showed great battling attitude to win and the pair 35L clear of the third, should go onto better things. 2
GREEN FLAG *** - Convinced this 7yo has a big prize in him this year, 3m2f-4m will be exactly what he wants, a genuine horse still with potential, won or placed in 13/16 of his races and he can win a big one in 2014/2015. Will see him at the festival too come March. 40P
UN ACE ** - Ran a belter at 100/1 in the Supreme in the festival just gone, staying on all too late from miles back. Will be sent chasing this season and will surely win a few races this season. F1120
COYABA **** - An exciting youngster,He was still a big baby last year but won two bumpers before coming up just short in the highest company. Should pick up some nice hurdles races this year for trainer going places. 262
VAGO COLLONGES **** - Ran in a listed and graded bumper in 2013 where he finished 2nd both times. Had last season off due to a few niggles here and there, but reportedly tearing up the Ditcheat gallops and is a serious prospect for novice hurdling this campaign. 22132
LE MERCUREY *** - Unraced in the UK, this frech import is the latest buzz horse at Paul Nicholls yard, probably going to be over-hyped, but one to keep a close eye on all the same this year. 737
Mullins unraced horses to watch out for:
MA DU FOU ***** - Looked to be struggling at short odds on debut when outpaced 5f out but steadily asserted and ended up storming clear when the penny dropped. Might not have beat much but will come on a ton for that and rates a very interesting prospect to go novice hurdling with over further. Rumoured to be the best Warren has had up his gallops. 32
BLAKLION *** - Looks a nice prospect for the Twiston-Davies yard bolting up on debut beating a well regarded sort by 15L. Showed some guts next time to win, beating a nice horse of McCain's then was put away until recent reappearance when winning in workmanlike but cosy enough fashion at Perth. Should see him at the Festival. 12132
NO DEAL ***** - Last seen in Jan 2013 winning a maiden hurdle at Ayr. A 7yo who has only had three starts due to injury but reportedly making up for lost time at home and being touted
as a potential Grand National horse at some point in the future. Should be ready to strike on overdue reapparance and go on to much better things. 41
VERAWAL *** - Very impressive on debut for top yard, big disappointment next time but can be forgiven; looks a lovely prospect and is one to keep very much on side this campaign and maybe in seasons to come. 3336F0
TELL US MORE ***** - Tanked his way through his sole run slamming his opposition. This son of Scorpion sold for nearly £300k at auction last year and a huge campaign is expected from him this year. 126
TAJ BADALANDABAD *** - Not 100% sure what he has beat so far but nothing has really got close in two starts to date, could be anything for the Pipe team this year. 41144
A VOS GARDES *** - Looks classy and is well regarded at home. Still immature and a big baby but world at his feet. Displayed a good attitude on his two starts to date and can go on to bigger and better things in time. 3122
FLETCHERS FLYER **** - This Harry Fry trained 6yo has only had two starts but looks a stayer judged on his very good runs so far and one to watch as he is gradually stepped up in trip. 3112
SUNTIEP **** - The less said about the ride he recieved at the festival the better but was clearly the best horse in the race and a campaign targetting the Grand National beckons.
KOOLALA *** - I really like this mare and she has always been well thought of at home. Hope to see her at the Festival in March as there is a lot more to come at 3m+ this season. 57
ONE TRACK MIND *** - Another exciting once raced youngster for up and coming trainer Warren Greatrex, always looked the winner and had what could be a few nice types in behind, promising. 1U41
GRANDE ANTARCTIQUE ** - A wildcard from a small yard but one that should be capable of winning races when sent novice hurdling this season, promising running on 2nds in two good soft ground bumpers and exciting for small trainer. U263
RUTHERGLEN *** - Won his first three juvenile hurdles before running a screamer in the Triumph, getting going too late on ground that was on the quick side for him, exciting season ahead.
GAITWAY *** - Green on debut vs experienced rival but showed great battling attitude to win and the pair 35L clear of the third, should go onto better things. 2
GREEN FLAG *** - Convinced this 7yo has a big prize in him this year, 3m2f-4m will be exactly what he wants, a genuine horse still with potential, won or placed in 13/16 of his races and he can win a big one in 2014/2015. Will see him at the festival too come March. 40P
UN ACE ** - Ran a belter at 100/1 in the Supreme in the festival just gone, staying on all too late from miles back. Will be sent chasing this season and will surely win a few races this season. F1120
COYABA **** - An exciting youngster,He was still a big baby last year but won two bumpers before coming up just short in the highest company. Should pick up some nice hurdles races this year for trainer going places. 262
VAGO COLLONGES **** - Ran in a listed and graded bumper in 2013 where he finished 2nd both times. Had last season off due to a few niggles here and there, but reportedly tearing up the Ditcheat gallops and is a serious prospect for novice hurdling this campaign. 22132
LE MERCUREY *** - Unraced in the UK, this frech import is the latest buzz horse at Paul Nicholls yard, probably going to be over-hyped, but one to keep a close eye on all the same this year. 737
Mullins unraced horses to watch out for:
TARARE
DOUVAN - 111
STONE HARD - 110
LONG DOG - 2
ARGENTINO - 0619
Must follows:
MA DU FOU - 32
NO DEAL - 41
TELL US MORE - 126
VAGO COLLONGES - 22132
COYABA - 272
Must be a few winners in there! Will be keeping track of results and updating this blog regularly. If you think we have missed one or two then dont hesitate to offer your suggestions @THTRacing
*** Results will be recorded and upated on here from 1st October 2014.***
Must follows:
MA DU FOU - 32
NO DEAL - 41
TELL US MORE - 126
VAGO COLLONGES - 22132
COYABA - 272
Must be a few winners in there! Will be keeping track of results and updating this blog regularly. If you think we have missed one or two then dont hesitate to offer your suggestions @THTRacing
*** Results will be recorded and upated on here from 1st October 2014.***
Tracker Form:
UF13341222323112111436123150U02214126434161112F736110264222132P02371119
Winners:
Blaklion 9/1 (Persian War - Grade 2)
Un Ace 3/1 (Class 3 Novice Chase)
One Track Mind Evs (Class 4 Nov Hdle)
Taj Badalandabad Evs (C4 Nov Hdle)
Fletchers Flyer 11/10 (C2 Nov Hdle)
Tell Us More 1/5 (Maiden Hurdle)
Douvan 8/15 (Novice Hurdle)
Un Ace 8/15 (Class 4 Novice Chase)
Taj Badalandabad 11/10 (C4 Nov Hdle)
Blaklion 9/4 (A' Bartlett Trial - Grade 2)
Stone Hard 4/7 (Bumper)
Fletchers Flyer 11/10 (Class 4 Nov Hdle)
Vago Collonges 2/1 (Class 4 Nov Hdle)
As Vos Gardes 5/1 (Maiden Hurdle)
Douvan 1/3 (Novice Hurdle - Grade 2)
Argentino 7/2 (Maiden Hurdle)
No Deal 2/1 (Class 4 Hcap Chase)
No Deal 2/1 (Class 4 Hcap Chase)
One Track Mind 3/10 (Class 4 Nov Hurdle)
Stone Hard 4/11 (Bumper)
Douvan 2/1 (Supreme Novices - Grade 1)
Stone Hard 4/11 (Bumper)
Douvan 2/1 (Supreme Novices - Grade 1)
LSP Running Total (win): - 2.71pts
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