Wednesday 25th September

Wanted to put my reasons up for today's picks as I have a week off from work and have the time to write the blog again! Been on a good run of late with 25/1 winner on Saturday followed by a 12/1 winner yesterday amongst plenty of shorter priced winners and longshots placing. Think I have only ever done a maxbet once before and I was going to do one today but there are one or two tiny question marks so it isn't a maxbet but it is my NAP at a very good price.

Goodwood 16.50 - Apricot Sky 15/2 NAP

Apricot Sky is my best bet of the day for Henry Candy and Dane O'Neill. The chestnut gelding has been put away for most of the summer after his game win from a 1/8 shot back in May. The horse in question was a Noseda colt by the name of Ian's Dream. The horse opened at 2/11 that day after finishing a length behind Reckless Abandon the previous race which happened to be the Group 2 Norfolk Stakes. Punters weren't shy next time and the horse was backed into 1/10 at one point before slightly easing back out to an SP of 1/8. Ian's Dream was beaten again at odds on next time then went on to win a maiden at odds on as well as running in Group 3 Jersey Stakes last time out though not very well and was then given a well deserved break and hasn't been seen since. The horse is rated in the high 80's but was once rated 105 and could be a decent proposition for the Noseda yard next season.

Apricot Sky and Ian's Dream pulled well clear from the rest of the field last time, some seven or eight lengths. The key piece of form for me that shows that this horse is very very well in is that the horse that came forth in that race, 7-8 lengths behind Apricot Sky has since gone on to win three times, and is currently on a hattrick. Apricot Sky today runs off a mark of 75, while Green Monkey, the horse in question is now rated 76 and judged on the comfortable nature of his last win, he might even be a bit better than that. On these two pieces of form, Candy's gelding now starts to look like he has plenty in hand on today's rivals and in an average 0-80 handicap this horse should be very very hard to beat.

However there are two concerns, both of which made this a NAP instead of a maxbet. Firstly the ground. He has only raced on good to firm ground and the AW surface so far and the ground is forecast good to soft tomorrow which is a worry. However, there is some hope on the sire's side ground wise as many of his offspring seem to prefer slower ground and you would hope the horse would be pulled if the ground was to be against him. Judged on the form, he might even be good enough on ground that wouldn't suit but I guess we will find out tomorrow. The second concern is the break though hopefully Candy will have him 100% fit for today's race and I think this one will be very tough to get past, and even if he can only manage second or third, at 15/2 you would still be making decent profit backing e/w. The dangers are the current favourite, Slip Sliding Away - effective over C and D and unexposed Dilgura could be well h'capped if improved over the summer but hopefully neither will be anywhere near our Apricot :-)


Redcar 17.30 - Little Jimmy Odsox 7/2 NB

Little Jimmy has dropped into a 0-65 from 0-75 after being dropped another lb by the handicapper after an uninspiring effort last time when there was some market support for him. (including my own money!) Giving him a final chance today and can't have him beat in a very weak race on a desperate Redcar card. Won over C and D a few starts back in a higher grade off a 3lb lower mark and on better ground than he faced last time, it is surely his race to lose. Get a quick start, get to the front, slow them down, wind it up, kick on and make all, that's the plan.


Goodwood 15.05 - Charles Camoin 10/1

Backed this one when winning well on belated reappearance from over a year off at 20/1 two starts back and owes me nothing. Connections have pulled him three or four times in the last week or so and his trainer is keen to look after this gelding that has had several problems over the lastfew years. He can be forgiven his last run and despite only seven runners (paying 2 places) he looks worth an e/w punt stepping up to 1m 4f for only the second time. Sylvester Kirk rates his horse and judged on what he said after his reappearance win, he should be going on to bigger and better things. Very lightly raced and unexposed at the trip, I really like his chances providing he runs. I also think Charles will be suited by the nature of the Goodwood course. Undulating and sharp, just like Epsom where he won on his only visit. Hopefully if he runs he can go very close, but only a small e/w bet and nowhere near as confident with this one as I am with the NAP and NB. Might need it a bit firmer too.

*late addition* - 15.40 Goodwood Sugar Boy 9/2

Backed the NAP to place and win, the NB as a win single and both in a double pays 37/1 at best prices. Also had a small trixie and tiny treble, which pays 420/1 for your money! Worth a quid or two e/w :-)

Good Luck! I'm hopeful.

PS. If you are more of a short priced big stakes punter then technically on all known form Batallion can not be beaten in the 16.15 Goodwood but I don't trust Haggas and the price is suspiciously appealing for a horse that should be 1/3, in my mind at least! 11/10 on offer but not touching myself.

THT