Morning/Afternoon all and thanks for taking the time out your busy days to have a read of the blog. Not done it in ages but as I tweeted on Tuesday afternoon I have a maxbet for Wednesday which doesn't happen very often at all. Lots of people throw the term around loosely, usually on some 8/13 shot that ends up getting beat. Hell I remember someone claimed he had inside knowledge that a race was fixed for a 10/11 shot to win (Hillstar) and he said some ridiculous things like stick your house on it, can't be beaten etc etc. Alas, Hillstar was beaten and his twitter days were over.
A maxbet doesn't mean empty your bank account, it doesn't mean put your life savings on and it doesn't mean the horse will definitely win. All it means is the biggest amount you would be prepared to stake (with the possibility of losing) on something to happen. For some it would be £10, for others it could be £100.
The good thing about Wednesday's maxbet is that the price will be backable ew. Therefore, you will be in profit even if it places which I expect at worse. I really think the horse will win and everything is pointing to a massive run. As I say, I don't often do these but really very confident.
Anyway enough of the rambling. The horse in question is the grand old servant, Lastkingofscotland. He has raced one hundred times, finishing in the top three on forty of those occasions and can make it his fourteenth career victory on Wednesday. Here's why.
The Horse:
Firstly, the horse is now rated 59. This is his lowest ever rating by 4lb. He is not a 59 animal, we all know that. With six wins off marks in the seventies, his highest being 75 in handicap company, he is clearly very well handicapped on Wednesday. That win off 75 was this year, so don't give me the 'regressive' bull crap. Won in 0-75 company very easily (today 0-60) and that was his last win. That last win was over today's course and distance. Returned to the scene of his last win, he can take advantage of his lowly mark.
Worth noting that two runs ago LKOS was hampered badly inside the final furlong. I'm not saying he would have won, course I'm not, as the jockey was told not to win that day. Pushed him along for about five strides and looked like he got himself into trouble in the first instance anyway. But there was hope in this run, especially as it was over wrong trip. Next time he was sent to the front where he should be, though the early effort to get over from the wide draw seemed to tell in the final furlong when he was headed and then it was over. There was significant market support last time by the way, suggesting his turn is near.
The Trainer:
We have been waiting for some time for the Connor Dore Xmas fund to get underway as pretty much all his horses are now so ridiculously well handicapped it's not funny. Or perhaps he can't train any more, who knows ha. There have been glimmers recently, with plenty of 2's 3's and 4's in the formbook and I can just imagine him climbing some sort of high tower at his yard, then playing a motivational warcry on some sort of brass instrument to his workforce and commanding that all handbrakes be released on all his horses. Okay maybe I am going slightly mad but when one goes in they will all follow and might be an idea to have a second look at his runners throughout the festive period.
My Worries:
There are two things which worry me and if the horse wasn't an each way price then I likely wouldn't be making this a max bet. Firstly, the jockey booking. Whether Dore wants to give his apprentice a winner for all his hard work I don't know, but he is usually a trainer who gets a 'proper jockey' on his plots. That said on this particular horse he has never really had an apprentice riding for so many races. (apprentice on board 5 of last 6 runs) So this is only a slight concern, though I would be happier to see a Luke Morris or an Adam Kirby on board.
The main issue is the draw. Being predominantly a front runner, the draw in 8 is unfavourable. That first right turn comes pretty quickly at Kempton and both jockey and horse (who usually breaks very smartly may I add) need to be alert. If he doesn't get to the front, it could be game over for win purposes, though that said he has been held up before when he has won (well) and he is so well handicapped it might not matter tactically, so all hope is certainly not lost, though as I say it is a slight concern.
Oh and another thing I have started to notice. These plotjobs on the AW always seem to be in the last race of the day. A few with Milton Bradley recently, Squance's Diplomatic (a great horse!) and other such gambling stables have come to my attention. Very likely just coincidence, but found it interesting nonetheless and LKOS is in the final race on Wednesday. He was also in the final race the last time he won here and the time before, though as I say, likely means F all.
LKOS will win soon, and could probably win by half the track tomorrow if he was fully let go. Can't remember the last time he ran in such a weak race but the dangers would likely be the 3yo that Crowley is on maybe (?) the two at the bottom of the hcap who were both 2nd last time could go well again I suppose but mainly Dishy Guru who, like LKOS is very well hcapped and I have a coverbet on that one as I have backed that one before, including last time when showed a glimmer on return from a break.
Please don't bet stupidly, a horse is a horse at the end of the day, and the trainer might still be waiting to release the handbrake. If not tomorrow, next time, if not next time, time after but he will win very soon at a price, and then probably rack up a hattrick or more as he is so well in on old (this year's) form. Good Luck all!
19.20 Kempton Lastkingofscotland @12/1
Also had a coverbet and the rfc on Dishy Guru @ 10/1 e/w.
THT
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