After making the laughably well handicapped Lastkingofscotland an each way maxbet last time, he flew home for 3rd from a bad draw and being badly hampered at the start for good place profit. This time LKOS will win, let me tell you.
Connor Dore has been handicapping his horses all summer and autumn as we all know by now. Hayley Turner returns to the saddle on the 7yo for the first time since the spring. A timely return too as unbelievably the horse has been dropped another 2lb by the handicapper since his last run. The old boy can now run off 57. He has never been rated this low, a career low mark for him on Friday.
Back over 7f at Wolves is where he wants to be. He has won twice over C and D and this was the course and distance where he took advantage of his tumbling mark under George Baker just under a year ago. He has a decent draw too, and the only danger could be the other Connor Dore runner but you get the impression this race is made for LKOS and I am not having him beat one little bit.
Come on Hayley, send him out front, and bloody well stay there.
Max Bet:
18.25 Lastkingofscotland @ 5/1
Good Luck all.
THT
Thursday, 12 December 2013
Wednesday, 11 December 2013
Thursday 12th December
Plot, plotjob, non-trier, blatant cheating. We all have our own names we use. A horse tomorrow fits perfectly into this category. Jim Best is hardly a stranger to the notorious plot job. Remember Planetoid? Not quite the perfect example but let's look at the stats.
Rated 85 on the flat - a perfectly decent handicapper. Two flat wins from eight races, not bad at all! Then Jim Best took over training duties from David Lanigan.
Race 1 (maiden): 13/15 - Beaten 138 lengths at 9/1
Race 2 (maiden): 8/13 - Beaten 41 lengths at 33/1
Race 3 (novice): 9/11 - Beaten 200 lengths at 66/1
Race 4 (novice): Fell at 50/1
Race 5 (novice): 7/8 - Beaten 111 lengths at 66/1
Race 6 (novice): 10/11 - Beaten 68 lengths at 100/1.
At this stage, the future didn't look bright over obstacles for the son of Galileo. Oh, wait a minute, let's have a go in handicap company! Given a mark of 85 (incidentally the same as flat mark) Planetoid then made is handicap debut in 0-95 company.
Race 7: (handicap): 1/11 - Won by 5 lengths eased down at 5/6.
Hmm.
The less said about it the better. Or is it? Is it time we, the racing fan, actually did something about this blatant deception and playing of the 'system.' This got me thinking, should we as the punter, really be that concerned? Plenty got on the gamble that day. Don't remember the opening price but it was absolutely hammered in. Surely the concern is more for the bookmakers, not to mention the BHA who we all know by now are generally totally useless. The thing that gets me is how blatantly obvious trainers like Jim Best (though he is certainly not alone) manipulate the system. He knows he can do it, and the BHA won't do a thing. Yes the stewards will 'investigate' the horse's improved form and make their notes and scribble down their ramblings and promise to look into previous race footage. Has anyone ever heard of this resulting in anything? No, me neither. They don't seem to care, or perhaps they have better things to do, like sorting out the ridiculously low levels of prize money, oh wait a minute, they aren't doing that either. What are they doing?! Lol.
The fact Planetoid was given the same mark over jumps as on the flat was laughable anyway, but the BHA took their time and smelt a rat. Usually, like tomorrow's huge gamble, a horse is given a mark after three runs. Anyway, the handicapper was made to look like a total fool and the rest is history. Let's look at tomorrow's example, which is such a perfect example of the non-trier. (unless Ramona Chase really is diabolical over fences of course!)
Race 1 (novice): 12/12 - Beaten 81 lengths at 66/1.
Race 2 (maiden): 14/15 - Beaten 126 lengths at 100/1.
Race 3 (maiden): 12/15 - Beaten 90 lengths at 100/1.
Race 4 (handicap) ???
Ramona Chase was a perfectly decent flat horse and is bred to stay well. He predominantly raced between 10-12f and is related to hurdle winners. Actually quite nicely bred and cost plenty of money. He is rated around 84-85 on the flat. Judged on his first three efforts over hurdles, he has been given one of the most laughable marks I have ever seen in racing. 59. 59?! For a horse rated 25lbs or so better on the flat?! A 85 rated flat horse usually ends up being a 110-130 rated horse over jumps as a rough guide. It's worse than laughable that Ramona Chase is allowed to run off 59 tomorrow, miles out the handicap in 0-95 company. The top rated horse in this race was a career best 70 on the flat, and runs off 95 tomorrow carrying top weight. Ramona Chase 85 on flat, 59 tomorrow carrying bottom weight. Puts that right into perspective. Now can you see why it has been hammered into 7/2 from 16/1 in just a few hours? Buying money, and lots of it if you got on early.
The horse is so well in that I honestly believe it could lap them, it's ridiculous, it's worse than ridiculous. But again it raises the question should we care?
While it does absolutely nothing for the integrity of the sport, perhaps it might take such a ridiculous case such as this for the BHA to introduce some new rules and guidelines. One could be that the handicapper refuses to assess a horse if beaten more than, say 25 lengths? For a horse to establish a mark, it must finish within 25L of the winner 3 times. Sounds like a good idea to me. At least then you know they are trying, a bit anyway.
Oh by the way, Mattie Batchelor was investigated and then banned for 10 days for one of his non-trying rides on RC. Not his fault of course, we all know jockeys all do what they are told.
I wonder what Jim Best's representative will say tomorrow when he is inevitably called into the stewards room at approximately 14.50. He will certainly be earning his bacon anyway. One excuse they might use is the horse 'summered well and was refreshed from the break.' RC been off since the Spring, we will see anyway. The funniest one's are 'could offer no explanation to the horse's improved form.' Ha!
One thing that is becoming more fashionable is being a non-trier on handicap debut. This (theoretically of course) makes the handicapper feel he has not been had, and you never know might even drop another pound or two! This can also enable a bigger price for connections the next time when the horse subsequently destroys the dismal field on the bridle and they have lumped on at an early double figure price. That is always the danger with going in too heavily on these gambles. But let's be honest, we all know Ramona Chase isn't a 59 animal, except the handicapper of course! Lol. The horse has an entry in another four days time, which suggest a quick double is very much on the cards, so this does have all the makings of a massive plotjob. Convenient that the handicapper doesn't act till Tuesday which will enable the follow up under no penalty ;-) Mr Best does know the time of day ha, absolute classic plot. It's all so terribly obvious isn't it? Will be rated a hundred and something this time next week anyway under a massive double penalty.
While it is blatant deception, trainer's will continue to exploit loopholes if the BHA keep their outdated rules and regulations. Me personally, I am not bothered by it one bit, from a punter's point of view. You can spot these a mile off, and if you get your money on early, you will be laughing too at the handicapper/BHA's expense.
Had been waiting for this horse for some time, hence why I managed to get on as soon as Bet 365 made the error of pricing the animal at 14/1 (thankyou very much) The price lasted virtually seconds, but I snuck on for decent money and am fully expecting to be a few hundred pound richer come this time tomorrow. At 7/2, the horse is still overpriced, then again any price is big when it looks as much of a banker as this one. As I say though, maybe it isn't his day tomorrow, maybe the horse falls etc etc. Things can go wrong, but you can guarantee one thing; the horse will be trying tomorrow!
Thanks for reading and enjoy watching RC win by half the track as Jim Best cracks a cheeky smile, knowing he has had one over on the BHA and the handicapper, once again. Here's to many more Jim!
THT
Rated 85 on the flat - a perfectly decent handicapper. Two flat wins from eight races, not bad at all! Then Jim Best took over training duties from David Lanigan.
Race 1 (maiden): 13/15 - Beaten 138 lengths at 9/1
Race 2 (maiden): 8/13 - Beaten 41 lengths at 33/1
Race 3 (novice): 9/11 - Beaten 200 lengths at 66/1
Race 4 (novice): Fell at 50/1
Race 5 (novice): 7/8 - Beaten 111 lengths at 66/1
Race 6 (novice): 10/11 - Beaten 68 lengths at 100/1.
At this stage, the future didn't look bright over obstacles for the son of Galileo. Oh, wait a minute, let's have a go in handicap company! Given a mark of 85 (incidentally the same as flat mark) Planetoid then made is handicap debut in 0-95 company.
Race 7: (handicap): 1/11 - Won by 5 lengths eased down at 5/6.
Hmm.
The less said about it the better. Or is it? Is it time we, the racing fan, actually did something about this blatant deception and playing of the 'system.' This got me thinking, should we as the punter, really be that concerned? Plenty got on the gamble that day. Don't remember the opening price but it was absolutely hammered in. Surely the concern is more for the bookmakers, not to mention the BHA who we all know by now are generally totally useless. The thing that gets me is how blatantly obvious trainers like Jim Best (though he is certainly not alone) manipulate the system. He knows he can do it, and the BHA won't do a thing. Yes the stewards will 'investigate' the horse's improved form and make their notes and scribble down their ramblings and promise to look into previous race footage. Has anyone ever heard of this resulting in anything? No, me neither. They don't seem to care, or perhaps they have better things to do, like sorting out the ridiculously low levels of prize money, oh wait a minute, they aren't doing that either. What are they doing?! Lol.
The fact Planetoid was given the same mark over jumps as on the flat was laughable anyway, but the BHA took their time and smelt a rat. Usually, like tomorrow's huge gamble, a horse is given a mark after three runs. Anyway, the handicapper was made to look like a total fool and the rest is history. Let's look at tomorrow's example, which is such a perfect example of the non-trier. (unless Ramona Chase really is diabolical over fences of course!)
Race 1 (novice): 12/12 - Beaten 81 lengths at 66/1.
Race 2 (maiden): 14/15 - Beaten 126 lengths at 100/1.
Race 3 (maiden): 12/15 - Beaten 90 lengths at 100/1.
Race 4 (handicap) ???
Ramona Chase was a perfectly decent flat horse and is bred to stay well. He predominantly raced between 10-12f and is related to hurdle winners. Actually quite nicely bred and cost plenty of money. He is rated around 84-85 on the flat. Judged on his first three efforts over hurdles, he has been given one of the most laughable marks I have ever seen in racing. 59. 59?! For a horse rated 25lbs or so better on the flat?! A 85 rated flat horse usually ends up being a 110-130 rated horse over jumps as a rough guide. It's worse than laughable that Ramona Chase is allowed to run off 59 tomorrow, miles out the handicap in 0-95 company. The top rated horse in this race was a career best 70 on the flat, and runs off 95 tomorrow carrying top weight. Ramona Chase 85 on flat, 59 tomorrow carrying bottom weight. Puts that right into perspective. Now can you see why it has been hammered into 7/2 from 16/1 in just a few hours? Buying money, and lots of it if you got on early.
The horse is so well in that I honestly believe it could lap them, it's ridiculous, it's worse than ridiculous. But again it raises the question should we care?
While it does absolutely nothing for the integrity of the sport, perhaps it might take such a ridiculous case such as this for the BHA to introduce some new rules and guidelines. One could be that the handicapper refuses to assess a horse if beaten more than, say 25 lengths? For a horse to establish a mark, it must finish within 25L of the winner 3 times. Sounds like a good idea to me. At least then you know they are trying, a bit anyway.
Oh by the way, Mattie Batchelor was investigated and then banned for 10 days for one of his non-trying rides on RC. Not his fault of course, we all know jockeys all do what they are told.
I wonder what Jim Best's representative will say tomorrow when he is inevitably called into the stewards room at approximately 14.50. He will certainly be earning his bacon anyway. One excuse they might use is the horse 'summered well and was refreshed from the break.' RC been off since the Spring, we will see anyway. The funniest one's are 'could offer no explanation to the horse's improved form.' Ha!
One thing that is becoming more fashionable is being a non-trier on handicap debut. This (theoretically of course) makes the handicapper feel he has not been had, and you never know might even drop another pound or two! This can also enable a bigger price for connections the next time when the horse subsequently destroys the dismal field on the bridle and they have lumped on at an early double figure price. That is always the danger with going in too heavily on these gambles. But let's be honest, we all know Ramona Chase isn't a 59 animal, except the handicapper of course! Lol. The horse has an entry in another four days time, which suggest a quick double is very much on the cards, so this does have all the makings of a massive plotjob. Convenient that the handicapper doesn't act till Tuesday which will enable the follow up under no penalty ;-) Mr Best does know the time of day ha, absolute classic plot. It's all so terribly obvious isn't it? Will be rated a hundred and something this time next week anyway under a massive double penalty.
While it is blatant deception, trainer's will continue to exploit loopholes if the BHA keep their outdated rules and regulations. Me personally, I am not bothered by it one bit, from a punter's point of view. You can spot these a mile off, and if you get your money on early, you will be laughing too at the handicapper/BHA's expense.
Had been waiting for this horse for some time, hence why I managed to get on as soon as Bet 365 made the error of pricing the animal at 14/1 (thankyou very much) The price lasted virtually seconds, but I snuck on for decent money and am fully expecting to be a few hundred pound richer come this time tomorrow. At 7/2, the horse is still overpriced, then again any price is big when it looks as much of a banker as this one. As I say though, maybe it isn't his day tomorrow, maybe the horse falls etc etc. Things can go wrong, but you can guarantee one thing; the horse will be trying tomorrow!
Thanks for reading and enjoy watching RC win by half the track as Jim Best cracks a cheeky smile, knowing he has had one over on the BHA and the handicapper, once again. Here's to many more Jim!
THT
Sunday, 8 December 2013
Monday 9th December
Got a few I like tomorrow and usually do well on Monday's for some reason so very hopeful. They are all chancey and the nature of the runners means they will either come first or last I think. Anyway, will keep it short and sweet.
Divers is a lovely horse. I just don't think he likes chasing anymore. The lovely grey is back over hurdles today on only his second run for Donald McCain which I think will be the key to a return to form. The Cheltenham Festival race winner has run over hurdles only once this year where he finished 3rd over C and D behind Paul Nicholls' Salubrious who is now rated 153. Despite the rest of the competition looking weak that day, Divers today drops down in class into shallower waters and can run off 123, his lowest mark since late 2010. He has been hammered and pulled up in his three chases since his good hurdles run but he has won over this course and distance before. Also, his last run was after a 7 month break, so he was entitled to need the outing. 12/1 is a great price for an animal of his class and is a good ew fancy, despite some decent opposition.
Uprise drops down in class after showing a return to form last time, finishing 3rd at Kempton in a slightly better race. Handicapper has given him another crack off this mark and the Pivotal gelding should take advantage. He has only won one race; his last start for Michael Stoute at odds on last summer off a mark of 74. Since switching yards the horse has tumbled down the weights and now looks ready to strike off 63 in an uncompetitive race. This will be the first time the horse has run in a Class 6 race. Looks a very generous price at 8/1 and looks nailed on for a place at least imo.
Marciano is a bit of an unknown and is exactly why I mentioned him on Twitter before his last run where he ran a big race considering his odds. SP ended up being a bit shorter at about 25/1 but he looked the winner at one point before just not quite finding enough in the closing stages. He travelled very well and the step back to 6f is absolutely ideal. George Fenton who finished a neck in front of Marciano has since come out and won and with the step back in trip and run under his belt, the bay gelding by Pivotal (another one!) can outrun his huge price in what looks a fairly competitive event. The danger could be the Alan Bailey maiden back from break. Winston won on last two Bailey horses, was scheduled to ride Equitania too the other day but missed ride which would have made it last 3/3! (horse won - annoyingly as was in the tracker and didn't back!!)
Queen Aggie in the Wolves finale is a very interesting candidate. I backed a few times in summer as was so well handicapped but gave up (thankfully as she still hasnt won since!) However I am going back in today. She won her first two starts very impressively and promised to be something special beating some top horses in her early days. However since her Chester win over a year ago, things have gone backward and from once running off 94 in a listed event, she can today run off 72 in a Class 5 handicap. This horse is only three years old by the way. So why is she going to win this time? Well, she ran a very nice race last time on her first ever run over a mile. (been campaigned at 5-7f) She ran on really well late on last time (in a better race) and over the extended mile at Wolverhampton this time, being unexposed at 1m+, she can get back to winning ways off the same mark in this, the weakest handicap she has ever contested. One final penny for your thoughts. Historic form means next to nothing but as a matter of interest she once finished just a length behind Oaks heroine Talent...
14.20 Divers 12/1 e/w
15.30 Uprise 8/1 e/w
15.40 Marciano 14/1 e/w
17.10 Queen Aggie 9/1 ew
Backed all as singles, more on the win doubles and a 50p e/w Lucky 15 paying £13769 at best prices.
Am confident in all of them, if you pushed me for a NAP I would say the filly. In terms of value, Marciano is massively overpriced, but they are all far bigger that they ought to be, in my opinion at least!
Good Luck if you play, as I said, all quite chancey and think will either finish first or last, but if on a going day and we get a bit of luck, could be a day to remember.
**(Also backed Munsarim as backed last time and interesting turned out so quickly - didn't see it was running till looked through Twitter! @PTMAHON made it a mexbet too which is always a good thing! Runs in the 16.40 Wolves - 16/1 e/w single)**
THT
Divers is a lovely horse. I just don't think he likes chasing anymore. The lovely grey is back over hurdles today on only his second run for Donald McCain which I think will be the key to a return to form. The Cheltenham Festival race winner has run over hurdles only once this year where he finished 3rd over C and D behind Paul Nicholls' Salubrious who is now rated 153. Despite the rest of the competition looking weak that day, Divers today drops down in class into shallower waters and can run off 123, his lowest mark since late 2010. He has been hammered and pulled up in his three chases since his good hurdles run but he has won over this course and distance before. Also, his last run was after a 7 month break, so he was entitled to need the outing. 12/1 is a great price for an animal of his class and is a good ew fancy, despite some decent opposition.
Uprise drops down in class after showing a return to form last time, finishing 3rd at Kempton in a slightly better race. Handicapper has given him another crack off this mark and the Pivotal gelding should take advantage. He has only won one race; his last start for Michael Stoute at odds on last summer off a mark of 74. Since switching yards the horse has tumbled down the weights and now looks ready to strike off 63 in an uncompetitive race. This will be the first time the horse has run in a Class 6 race. Looks a very generous price at 8/1 and looks nailed on for a place at least imo.
Marciano is a bit of an unknown and is exactly why I mentioned him on Twitter before his last run where he ran a big race considering his odds. SP ended up being a bit shorter at about 25/1 but he looked the winner at one point before just not quite finding enough in the closing stages. He travelled very well and the step back to 6f is absolutely ideal. George Fenton who finished a neck in front of Marciano has since come out and won and with the step back in trip and run under his belt, the bay gelding by Pivotal (another one!) can outrun his huge price in what looks a fairly competitive event. The danger could be the Alan Bailey maiden back from break. Winston won on last two Bailey horses, was scheduled to ride Equitania too the other day but missed ride which would have made it last 3/3! (horse won - annoyingly as was in the tracker and didn't back!!)
Queen Aggie in the Wolves finale is a very interesting candidate. I backed a few times in summer as was so well handicapped but gave up (thankfully as she still hasnt won since!) However I am going back in today. She won her first two starts very impressively and promised to be something special beating some top horses in her early days. However since her Chester win over a year ago, things have gone backward and from once running off 94 in a listed event, she can today run off 72 in a Class 5 handicap. This horse is only three years old by the way. So why is she going to win this time? Well, she ran a very nice race last time on her first ever run over a mile. (been campaigned at 5-7f) She ran on really well late on last time (in a better race) and over the extended mile at Wolverhampton this time, being unexposed at 1m+, she can get back to winning ways off the same mark in this, the weakest handicap she has ever contested. One final penny for your thoughts. Historic form means next to nothing but as a matter of interest she once finished just a length behind Oaks heroine Talent...
14.20 Divers 12/1 e/w
15.30 Uprise 8/1 e/w
15.40 Marciano 14/1 e/w
17.10 Queen Aggie 9/1 ew
Backed all as singles, more on the win doubles and a 50p e/w Lucky 15 paying £13769 at best prices.
Am confident in all of them, if you pushed me for a NAP I would say the filly. In terms of value, Marciano is massively overpriced, but they are all far bigger that they ought to be, in my opinion at least!
Good Luck if you play, as I said, all quite chancey and think will either finish first or last, but if on a going day and we get a bit of luck, could be a day to remember.
**(Also backed Munsarim as backed last time and interesting turned out so quickly - didn't see it was running till looked through Twitter! @PTMAHON made it a mexbet too which is always a good thing! Runs in the 16.40 Wolves - 16/1 e/w single)**
THT
Tuesday, 3 December 2013
Wednesday 4th December
Morning/Afternoon all and thanks for taking the time out your busy days to have a read of the blog. Not done it in ages but as I tweeted on Tuesday afternoon I have a maxbet for Wednesday which doesn't happen very often at all. Lots of people throw the term around loosely, usually on some 8/13 shot that ends up getting beat. Hell I remember someone claimed he had inside knowledge that a race was fixed for a 10/11 shot to win (Hillstar) and he said some ridiculous things like stick your house on it, can't be beaten etc etc. Alas, Hillstar was beaten and his twitter days were over.
A maxbet doesn't mean empty your bank account, it doesn't mean put your life savings on and it doesn't mean the horse will definitely win. All it means is the biggest amount you would be prepared to stake (with the possibility of losing) on something to happen. For some it would be £10, for others it could be £100.
The good thing about Wednesday's maxbet is that the price will be backable ew. Therefore, you will be in profit even if it places which I expect at worse. I really think the horse will win and everything is pointing to a massive run. As I say, I don't often do these but really very confident.
Anyway enough of the rambling. The horse in question is the grand old servant, Lastkingofscotland. He has raced one hundred times, finishing in the top three on forty of those occasions and can make it his fourteenth career victory on Wednesday. Here's why.
The Horse:
Firstly, the horse is now rated 59. This is his lowest ever rating by 4lb. He is not a 59 animal, we all know that. With six wins off marks in the seventies, his highest being 75 in handicap company, he is clearly very well handicapped on Wednesday. That win off 75 was this year, so don't give me the 'regressive' bull crap. Won in 0-75 company very easily (today 0-60) and that was his last win. That last win was over today's course and distance. Returned to the scene of his last win, he can take advantage of his lowly mark.
Worth noting that two runs ago LKOS was hampered badly inside the final furlong. I'm not saying he would have won, course I'm not, as the jockey was told not to win that day. Pushed him along for about five strides and looked like he got himself into trouble in the first instance anyway. But there was hope in this run, especially as it was over wrong trip. Next time he was sent to the front where he should be, though the early effort to get over from the wide draw seemed to tell in the final furlong when he was headed and then it was over. There was significant market support last time by the way, suggesting his turn is near.
The Trainer:
We have been waiting for some time for the Connor Dore Xmas fund to get underway as pretty much all his horses are now so ridiculously well handicapped it's not funny. Or perhaps he can't train any more, who knows ha. There have been glimmers recently, with plenty of 2's 3's and 4's in the formbook and I can just imagine him climbing some sort of high tower at his yard, then playing a motivational warcry on some sort of brass instrument to his workforce and commanding that all handbrakes be released on all his horses. Okay maybe I am going slightly mad but when one goes in they will all follow and might be an idea to have a second look at his runners throughout the festive period.
My Worries:
There are two things which worry me and if the horse wasn't an each way price then I likely wouldn't be making this a max bet. Firstly, the jockey booking. Whether Dore wants to give his apprentice a winner for all his hard work I don't know, but he is usually a trainer who gets a 'proper jockey' on his plots. That said on this particular horse he has never really had an apprentice riding for so many races. (apprentice on board 5 of last 6 runs) So this is only a slight concern, though I would be happier to see a Luke Morris or an Adam Kirby on board.
The main issue is the draw. Being predominantly a front runner, the draw in 8 is unfavourable. That first right turn comes pretty quickly at Kempton and both jockey and horse (who usually breaks very smartly may I add) need to be alert. If he doesn't get to the front, it could be game over for win purposes, though that said he has been held up before when he has won (well) and he is so well handicapped it might not matter tactically, so all hope is certainly not lost, though as I say it is a slight concern.
Oh and another thing I have started to notice. These plotjobs on the AW always seem to be in the last race of the day. A few with Milton Bradley recently, Squance's Diplomatic (a great horse!) and other such gambling stables have come to my attention. Very likely just coincidence, but found it interesting nonetheless and LKOS is in the final race on Wednesday. He was also in the final race the last time he won here and the time before, though as I say, likely means F all.
LKOS will win soon, and could probably win by half the track tomorrow if he was fully let go. Can't remember the last time he ran in such a weak race but the dangers would likely be the 3yo that Crowley is on maybe (?) the two at the bottom of the hcap who were both 2nd last time could go well again I suppose but mainly Dishy Guru who, like LKOS is very well hcapped and I have a coverbet on that one as I have backed that one before, including last time when showed a glimmer on return from a break.
Please don't bet stupidly, a horse is a horse at the end of the day, and the trainer might still be waiting to release the handbrake. If not tomorrow, next time, if not next time, time after but he will win very soon at a price, and then probably rack up a hattrick or more as he is so well in on old (this year's) form. Good Luck all!
19.20 Kempton Lastkingofscotland @12/1
Also had a coverbet and the rfc on Dishy Guru @ 10/1 e/w.
THT
A maxbet doesn't mean empty your bank account, it doesn't mean put your life savings on and it doesn't mean the horse will definitely win. All it means is the biggest amount you would be prepared to stake (with the possibility of losing) on something to happen. For some it would be £10, for others it could be £100.
The good thing about Wednesday's maxbet is that the price will be backable ew. Therefore, you will be in profit even if it places which I expect at worse. I really think the horse will win and everything is pointing to a massive run. As I say, I don't often do these but really very confident.
Anyway enough of the rambling. The horse in question is the grand old servant, Lastkingofscotland. He has raced one hundred times, finishing in the top three on forty of those occasions and can make it his fourteenth career victory on Wednesday. Here's why.
The Horse:
Firstly, the horse is now rated 59. This is his lowest ever rating by 4lb. He is not a 59 animal, we all know that. With six wins off marks in the seventies, his highest being 75 in handicap company, he is clearly very well handicapped on Wednesday. That win off 75 was this year, so don't give me the 'regressive' bull crap. Won in 0-75 company very easily (today 0-60) and that was his last win. That last win was over today's course and distance. Returned to the scene of his last win, he can take advantage of his lowly mark.
Worth noting that two runs ago LKOS was hampered badly inside the final furlong. I'm not saying he would have won, course I'm not, as the jockey was told not to win that day. Pushed him along for about five strides and looked like he got himself into trouble in the first instance anyway. But there was hope in this run, especially as it was over wrong trip. Next time he was sent to the front where he should be, though the early effort to get over from the wide draw seemed to tell in the final furlong when he was headed and then it was over. There was significant market support last time by the way, suggesting his turn is near.
The Trainer:
We have been waiting for some time for the Connor Dore Xmas fund to get underway as pretty much all his horses are now so ridiculously well handicapped it's not funny. Or perhaps he can't train any more, who knows ha. There have been glimmers recently, with plenty of 2's 3's and 4's in the formbook and I can just imagine him climbing some sort of high tower at his yard, then playing a motivational warcry on some sort of brass instrument to his workforce and commanding that all handbrakes be released on all his horses. Okay maybe I am going slightly mad but when one goes in they will all follow and might be an idea to have a second look at his runners throughout the festive period.
My Worries:
There are two things which worry me and if the horse wasn't an each way price then I likely wouldn't be making this a max bet. Firstly, the jockey booking. Whether Dore wants to give his apprentice a winner for all his hard work I don't know, but he is usually a trainer who gets a 'proper jockey' on his plots. That said on this particular horse he has never really had an apprentice riding for so many races. (apprentice on board 5 of last 6 runs) So this is only a slight concern, though I would be happier to see a Luke Morris or an Adam Kirby on board.
The main issue is the draw. Being predominantly a front runner, the draw in 8 is unfavourable. That first right turn comes pretty quickly at Kempton and both jockey and horse (who usually breaks very smartly may I add) need to be alert. If he doesn't get to the front, it could be game over for win purposes, though that said he has been held up before when he has won (well) and he is so well handicapped it might not matter tactically, so all hope is certainly not lost, though as I say it is a slight concern.
Oh and another thing I have started to notice. These plotjobs on the AW always seem to be in the last race of the day. A few with Milton Bradley recently, Squance's Diplomatic (a great horse!) and other such gambling stables have come to my attention. Very likely just coincidence, but found it interesting nonetheless and LKOS is in the final race on Wednesday. He was also in the final race the last time he won here and the time before, though as I say, likely means F all.
LKOS will win soon, and could probably win by half the track tomorrow if he was fully let go. Can't remember the last time he ran in such a weak race but the dangers would likely be the 3yo that Crowley is on maybe (?) the two at the bottom of the hcap who were both 2nd last time could go well again I suppose but mainly Dishy Guru who, like LKOS is very well hcapped and I have a coverbet on that one as I have backed that one before, including last time when showed a glimmer on return from a break.
Please don't bet stupidly, a horse is a horse at the end of the day, and the trainer might still be waiting to release the handbrake. If not tomorrow, next time, if not next time, time after but he will win very soon at a price, and then probably rack up a hattrick or more as he is so well in on old (this year's) form. Good Luck all!
19.20 Kempton Lastkingofscotland @12/1
Also had a coverbet and the rfc on Dishy Guru @ 10/1 e/w.
THT
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