Wednesday 25th September

Wanted to put my reasons up for today's picks as I have a week off from work and have the time to write the blog again! Been on a good run of late with 25/1 winner on Saturday followed by a 12/1 winner yesterday amongst plenty of shorter priced winners and longshots placing. Think I have only ever done a maxbet once before and I was going to do one today but there are one or two tiny question marks so it isn't a maxbet but it is my NAP at a very good price.

Goodwood 16.50 - Apricot Sky 15/2 NAP

Apricot Sky is my best bet of the day for Henry Candy and Dane O'Neill. The chestnut gelding has been put away for most of the summer after his game win from a 1/8 shot back in May. The horse in question was a Noseda colt by the name of Ian's Dream. The horse opened at 2/11 that day after finishing a length behind Reckless Abandon the previous race which happened to be the Group 2 Norfolk Stakes. Punters weren't shy next time and the horse was backed into 1/10 at one point before slightly easing back out to an SP of 1/8. Ian's Dream was beaten again at odds on next time then went on to win a maiden at odds on as well as running in Group 3 Jersey Stakes last time out though not very well and was then given a well deserved break and hasn't been seen since. The horse is rated in the high 80's but was once rated 105 and could be a decent proposition for the Noseda yard next season.

Apricot Sky and Ian's Dream pulled well clear from the rest of the field last time, some seven or eight lengths. The key piece of form for me that shows that this horse is very very well in is that the horse that came forth in that race, 7-8 lengths behind Apricot Sky has since gone on to win three times, and is currently on a hattrick. Apricot Sky today runs off a mark of 75, while Green Monkey, the horse in question is now rated 76 and judged on the comfortable nature of his last win, he might even be a bit better than that. On these two pieces of form, Candy's gelding now starts to look like he has plenty in hand on today's rivals and in an average 0-80 handicap this horse should be very very hard to beat.

However there are two concerns, both of which made this a NAP instead of a maxbet. Firstly the ground. He has only raced on good to firm ground and the AW surface so far and the ground is forecast good to soft tomorrow which is a worry. However, there is some hope on the sire's side ground wise as many of his offspring seem to prefer slower ground and you would hope the horse would be pulled if the ground was to be against him. Judged on the form, he might even be good enough on ground that wouldn't suit but I guess we will find out tomorrow. The second concern is the break though hopefully Candy will have him 100% fit for today's race and I think this one will be very tough to get past, and even if he can only manage second or third, at 15/2 you would still be making decent profit backing e/w. The dangers are the current favourite, Slip Sliding Away - effective over C and D and unexposed Dilgura could be well h'capped if improved over the summer but hopefully neither will be anywhere near our Apricot :-)


Redcar 17.30 - Little Jimmy Odsox 7/2 NB

Little Jimmy has dropped into a 0-65 from 0-75 after being dropped another lb by the handicapper after an uninspiring effort last time when there was some market support for him. (including my own money!) Giving him a final chance today and can't have him beat in a very weak race on a desperate Redcar card. Won over C and D a few starts back in a higher grade off a 3lb lower mark and on better ground than he faced last time, it is surely his race to lose. Get a quick start, get to the front, slow them down, wind it up, kick on and make all, that's the plan.


Goodwood 15.05 - Charles Camoin 10/1

Backed this one when winning well on belated reappearance from over a year off at 20/1 two starts back and owes me nothing. Connections have pulled him three or four times in the last week or so and his trainer is keen to look after this gelding that has had several problems over the lastfew years. He can be forgiven his last run and despite only seven runners (paying 2 places) he looks worth an e/w punt stepping up to 1m 4f for only the second time. Sylvester Kirk rates his horse and judged on what he said after his reappearance win, he should be going on to bigger and better things. Very lightly raced and unexposed at the trip, I really like his chances providing he runs. I also think Charles will be suited by the nature of the Goodwood course. Undulating and sharp, just like Epsom where he won on his only visit. Hopefully if he runs he can go very close, but only a small e/w bet and nowhere near as confident with this one as I am with the NAP and NB. Might need it a bit firmer too.

*late addition* - 15.40 Goodwood Sugar Boy 9/2

Backed the NAP to place and win, the NB as a win single and both in a double pays 37/1 at best prices. Also had a small trixie and tiny treble, which pays 420/1 for your money! Worth a quid or two e/w :-)

Good Luck! I'm hopeful.

PS. If you are more of a short priced big stakes punter then technically on all known form Batallion can not be beaten in the 16.15 Goodwood but I don't trust Haggas and the price is suspiciously appealing for a horse that should be 1/3, in my mind at least! 11/10 on offer but not touching myself.

THT

Monday 29th July

Decided to re-start the blog again as was taking up everyone's timelines with my reasoning for my bets. On to Monday.

Bobbyscott 9/2 - Windsor 20.00 - NAP 2nd at SP 7/4 :-(

Bobbyscot is Monday's best bet in my eyes at a very attractive price. Ryan Moore returned to the saddle last time when Bob hinted at his imminent return to form. He races off a 30lb lower mark than when trained abroad and despite not being the force of old, he is only a 6yo and still has a 0-75 like this well within his grasp. If the handbrake was fully released he would be a different class to these and reverting back to turf with Moore in the driving seat, I can't have this ex group rated horse beat.

Fathsta 7/1 - Wolverhampton 16.15 - NB WON

In his 99 races spanning six years, Fathsta has never run in as low a grade handicap as he does here. Yes, he did run in a seller last time and was a beaten favourite, odds on at that, which admittedly is off-putting. However I am more than happy to forgive him as 5f isn't his trip, shown by the fact he has never won over the minimum and the step up back to the ideal 6f is sure to suit. His return to the AW is also a massive positive, as he seems more at home on the artificial surface these days. The jockey is another plus as man of the moment SDS takes over the reigns and will ensure Fathsta gives his all. This lowly 0-75 grade is well within his grasp and despite his age catching up with him he can score here on his 100th outing at the races. On that note, even if he can only manage a place, you will profit backing the C and D winner e/w at what looks a huge price.

Also worth doing a double here as I am very confident with both. If you are more cautious then go e/w but going for the win double myself at 43/1.

Good Luck if you like the look of either of these or get on the double. Can't see these prices being around for long so get on early if you fancy them.

THT

Thursday 16th May

After a very promising start yesterday, our Lucky 15 ended in disappointment. Hopefully it can be third time Lucky, as we are all very happy with our selections today.


Salisbury 14.00 - Dream Wild @ 10/11 - @kris1179

York 14.45 - Indian Chief @ 3/1 - @tomquinny2

York 15.50 - Polski Max @ 5/1 - @_JamesStevenson

York 16.25 - Parbold @ 3/1 - @THTRacing


A £1 win Lucky 15 returns £559.


Good Luck today.

THT

Wednesday 15th May

Yesterday was appalling and improvement is clearly needed. The massive rainfall didn't help some runners and one runner burst a blood vessel in his race, though no excuses really. Was praying for a solid start to the new Lucky 15 but it wasn't meant to be though I am still confident that over a few weeks you will see good profit following them as we all know what we are doing. We all fancied some better value today so we recommend a smaller stakes each way Lucky 15 today and the selections are as follows.


York 15.15 - Lethal Force @ 20/1 - @tomquinny2 - (Guest Tipster) - 2nd

York 15.50 - Opera Box @ 15/2 - @kris1179 - Unplaced

York 17.00 - Right Touch @ 8/1 - @_JamesStevenson - Unplaced

Bath 20.40 - Stonecrabstomorrow @ 8/1 - @THTRacing


Pays £5855 for a 25p e/w stake at best prices.


Good Luck.


Decided to back STONECRABSTOMORROW as he will pop up one or two times this summer and I can't see why he doesn't have a great chance to do so tomorrow. He runs pretty well on any ground and overcame a 7 month absence to run very well when unfancied earlier this month. He is sent out again for his second start for his new yard and as he will come on for the last run, he should be going close in what looks a weaker race, despite the number of runners. Backed him as an e/w single as well as in L15 as 8/1 and bookies paying 4 places at 1/4 odds means we will still get a nice 2/1 winner should he only place. Has to be right there in the closing stages and might just stick his neck out.


THT

Tuesday 14th May

Three seconds yesterday which was very frustrating but nothing we can do now. Even more annoying was that I highlighted both Skytrain and Canyari but didn't back either then watched them both win, but that's racing I suppose.

On to Tuesday where I am delighted to be teaming up with both @kris1179 and @_JamesStevenson who most of you will know from Twitter. In case you don't, Kris is someone who has been on Twitter for a long time and has had great success. He is someone who really knows his stuff and I am always worried when he backs something in the same race as me when I have backed another horse, Kris usually being right! I have only recently seen James on Twitter after he landed some impressive winners at incredible odds. Somewhat of a long-shot specialist, he has taken Twitter by storm in recent weeks and I am delighted that he and Kris have agreed to offer their NAP each day for us. Kris and James and myself will each pick a selection as our NAP and put it forward to make a Lucky 15 along with another guest tipster from Twitter. The guest will be invited to offer their NAP and if successful will then nominate their NAP the next day and so on until one loses. We are all very hopeful you will make plenty of cash by following the Lucky 15 on a daily basis. I am looking forward to working with them both as well as our guests and I have every confidence that we can make this a big success.

The first guest tipster is @TomBullOfficial and we wish him the best of luck.


The selections:

15.10 Beverley - Divertimenti @ 7/4 - @JamesStevenson - 4th

15.30 Sedgefield - Zazamix @ 3/1 - @TomBullOfficial (Guest Tipster) - 4th

16.20 Wincanton - Velator @ 5/2  - @kris1179 - PU

20.10 Chepstow - Headline News @ 6/1 - @THTRacing - NR


We advise a £1 win bet on the Lucky 15 which returns £741.

Good Luck!


Aside from the team's Lucky 15:

ELEGANT OPHELIA looks worth an each way bet in the 19.40 Chepstow. After being given a non-trying ride last time, Kirby has been rightly given the boot and champion jockey Richard Hughes takes over for the first time. EO drops back to her ideal trip, shown by her very close third in her sole start over 10f and is just 1lb higher today with far more capable hands doing the steering. The softer ground wont bother her as shown by her second at Salisbury in very heavy ground and she could run a massive race at a big price. 14/1. Stag Hill may be the chief threat at a big price too, though the forecast softish ground is probably the main reason for his attractive 12/1.

HEADLINE NEWS looks a very generous price at 6/1, though very annoyed I missed 10's - ridiculous price. Her record at this level is 221, the defeats by half a length and a short head. She raced in a much better race last time which was back in September finishing a very creditable 5th at Newmarket just a couple of lengths off the pace. She has the 8 month break to overcome but her close second after a similar length break earlier in her career suggests this won't be a problem, and neither will the softish ground forecast. Chepstow 20.10.

CUSTEROFTHEWEST is a horse that I would not have backed had I not been told to do so by someone very reliable. The first time blinkers, the step down in class and the step up in trip are the three main reasons to why this one is expected to go well tomorrow and connections are hopeful of a big run.

SCHINKEN OTTO is 5lb below his last winning mark which was here at Sedgefield, his favourite racetrack. 7/1 is overpriced and he has to be of e/w interest despite the the fact that he isn't getting any younger. He is back in a lower grade and surely must go close, money coming for the veteran too so get on quick.

Other selections:

15.30 Sedgefield - Schinken Otto @ 7/1 e/w - Unplaced
15.50 Wincanton - Custerofthewest @ 7/1 e/w - Unplaced
19.40 Chepstow - Elegant Ophelia @ 14/1 e/w Unplaced
20.10 Chepstow - Headline News @ 6/1 e/w NR

As well as backing all of these as singles I am also having a tiny e/w Lucky 15 as more of a fun bet. 25p e/w returns a mighty £2910.

Good Luck.

THT

Monday 13th May

Shocking week last week, struggled for winners and couldn't get any momentum and some bad luck thrown in for good measure. Today is a new day and a new week and will hopefully come back to form!

RED PALADIN won very gamely on his reappearance from a nine month break under a good ride from Amy Ryan. The pair team up again in a bigger field with the ground to suit perfectly. These races seem somewhat a lottery and RP will need more though he is open to big improvement as he will have come on a bunch for the run last time and can go close here. With bookies paying 4 places and this horse priced up at 9/1, you need to get on quick.

GRANDORIO won well enough last week to suggest he may not have finished winning yet. His in form trainer has sent him back out again before the handicapper penalises him and there looks to be nothing in his way on Monday; 2/1 may look huge come the off as he was merely pushed out last time when he scored with consummate ease.

APACHE GLORY is now 11lb higher than her first win three starts back. She has won two more since then, most impressively at 10f (today's trip) and can go in again on Monday. Andrea Atzeni makes the trip to Doncaster for just this one ride and as she has won off this mark and higher before, her winning run may yet continue. Despite only winning by a narrow margin last time she made up a ton of ground late on to cut them all down late and the extra furlong today will suit her just right, very fair price too, though this race is competitive.

Robert Tart's valuable 5lb claim means BRYNFORD runs off a 1lb lower mark than when he won cosily over track and trip two starts back so has to be right there on Monday. He was upped in trip after that running very well finishing only a couple off the pace in third and the step back today will suit him perfectly. The danger might be well-related Moma Lee should the money talk as she could be potentially very well treated. 9/2 is on the shorter side of what I had hoped but still looks worth the bet. (Moma Lee won)

As you know, backing a debutant is something I rarely do and usually advise against. However the in-form trainer Ralph Beckett has one tomorrow with a pedigree that screams speed. WEISSE SOCKEN which is German for White Socks is by Acclamation out of a 5f two year old winner (RPR 96) and already holds a Super Sprint entry meaning this one must be flying at home. Hannon's horse will be well supported and could well win but I fancy Beckett, who is operating at an impressive £1 level stakes profit of £65 this season, will have this one primed to perfection and in my eyes is very much the one to beat, could be a nice price too, will wait till prices released in the morning, but anything over 2/1 looks good to me. << The big danger is now a non runner and I have decided to back WS at 11/10 as I can't see past him now.


Singles:

15.15 Doncaster - Red Paladin @ 9/1 e/w 2nd
15.50 Doncaster - Grandorio @ 2/1 3rd
16.00 Wolverhampton - Brynford @ 9/2 7th
17.00 Doncaster - Apache Glory @ 11/4 2nd
17.50 Windsor - Weisse Socken @ 11/10 2nd


Double:

Grandorio/Apache Glory @ 10/1


Lucky 15:

Apache Glory, Weisse Socken, Grandorio, Brynford.

Pays £420 for a £1 win stake.


Good Luck all.

THT

Friday 10th May

Hi all, thanks for checking out my blog. Unfortunately very short of time so explanations for my bets very brief, apologies!

The MOOSE goes at Chester and is unlikely to win. However he is always unlikely to win as he is highly tried and always a big price. Usually he out runs his price in a big way, for example his 50/1 second to none other than Sprinter Sacre as well as his massive performance a few weeks ago to land massive 28/1 odds for us. Bloody love him and will always back him till he retires. Flying very high today and hoping he runs well. Placing in this company would be astonishing, unthinkable he could win this, but if anyone can defy the odds it is this fella. I expect him to drift before the off but taken BOG and recommend you do too. 50/1.

REGAL DAN looks overpriced to me at 5's (I have him at about 3's) and looks worth a good e/w bet. This way we can break even for a place, make a good profit for a win. Stepping back in trip today will suit and he run very well on reappearance and can go very close despite a small penalty for his 1 length defeat on return.

After much debate also backed GANDALAK. Should be more to come and though this is competitive, conditions will suit and he looks a very fair price.


13.45 Chester - Gandalak @ 7/2
14.45 Chester - Mad Moose @ 50/1 e/w PLACED
19.40 Ascot - Regal Dan @ 5/1 e/w


Gandalak/Regal Dan double pays 26/1. << Has to be worth a couple of quid at least.


Good Luck. Oh if you are into golf then I am backing Henrik Stenson at 33/1 each way for the Players Champ!

THT