Wednesday 8th May

Same old story on Tuesday as we hit 1/2 on a monster 3-figure double. Lost count fo how many times this has happened! Anyway nice to see Danzoe win, a horse I really like and he gave a career best performace to win well at Yarmouth. On to Wednesday.

BUCKLAND I always back as he is a horse I love and always does better than people expect. He is all heart and is probably out of his depth tomorrow over a longer trip than he has ever tried before and will need to improve to land this. Hans Adielsson's stable star, he is a horse that ran seventeen races before finally getting off the mark over 5f at Wolves.He then had to wait another five races before his connections thought he might be suited by a significant step up in trip. This is what made the horse, as he rolled off a four-timer, his first at 1m2f in a Class 5 race, his second at 1m3f in a Class 4 race, his third at 1m4f in a Class 3 race and his forth in a Class 2 race back at 1m3f as he won so convincingly by 5 lengths merely pushed out the time before. He was then stepped up massively in trip to 2m and I must admit I doubted he could win that race and did not back him yet was nearly humbled as he ran a stormer just being nailed on the line, going down by a short head. He was then entered in the Group 3 Sagaro Stakes where he massively out ran his 33/1 SP only just missing out on third place. He has been stepped up again this time to 18f in the Chester Cup and Buick takes the ride. Realistically I can't see him winning though he has good place claims, then again he has surprised us all before and looks a fair price for a horse who is still improving. 14/1.

Was going to leave it at that but I couldn't resist a small e/w bet in the same race on SIMENON who looks overpriced to me. The two time Royal Ascot winner wasn't at his best at all on heavy ground over jumps in Ireland at the end of 2012 but makes the trip over to Chester today for the big race. The break would have freshened him up and Willie Mullins will ensure he is in prime conditions for Tuesday's race. His last flat race was a Group 1 in Ireland where he came a few lengths off the pace in 5th, in ground he isn't as useful on, and was staying on better than anything at the end. He will stay the trip today all week and offers no concerns in that department. His last two flat runs in England he has won, both at Royal Ascot within the space of four days, destroying the field on both occasions on ground he likes. For me he looks the value bet of the race, though many will argue the same with their own picks. Unlike Buckland I can see Simenon winning this and he has solid place claims in my opinion should he be race-fit on his return, though that is never a concern when a horse is trained with WPM. 12/1.

LILY EDGE is ahorse I backed to both her victories, both over today's distance. I backed her again the next time when she drifted like a barge right before the off from 5/2 fav to 7/1 and was ridden to lose. I explained what happened before and won;t dwell on it again but it was a ride that made no sense and the drift spoke volumes. She was upped in class the next time where she ran into plenty of smart ones and fnished last despite me making a case for her then too. She has something to prove now but is back down in grade and is on a C and D hattrick which she may well complete, providing a short break has freshened her up. 10/1 looks massive for 3 places so I am having a decent each way bet on her as she will be flying home late from the rear (if ridden properly!) and might just get her nose up on the line.

The 19.40 at Kempton looks a two horse race between Rivellino and FOXTROT JUBILEE with preference for the latter who is dropped back down in class today and goes for the in-fom Ralph Beckett yard. He won his first three, two over C and D and despite finishing behind Rivellino last time, FJ re-opposes on marginally better terms, though the return to the polytrack will be his main plus point. I fancy him to reverse the running as he has so much more too offer and is likely to improve, especially as his last run would have freshened him up for this one. 7/2.


Chester Stakes (14.45):

Buckland @ 14/1 e/w
Simenon @ 16/1 e/w Placed

Kempton 18.10 - Lily Edge @ 10/1 e/w
Kempton 19.40 - Foxtrot Jubilee @ 7/2


Double:

Kempton 18.40 - Tajheez
Newcastle 19.00 - Shalwa

Pays 8/1.

Good Luck all.

THT

Rolling Accumulator: Bet 1 - £10 on Over 11.5 corners in the Spurs/Chelsea game returns £17.50