Thankfully I went half stakes yesterday as it turned out to be a typical Sunday, don't think I will punt Sunday's anymore unless I am really sweet on something. We are top of the pile on Niall's blog and intend to stay there this month. 8/8 months ended in profit on there and with the bright start to this month we have made it a good chance of 9/9. Tomorrow's selections and the reasoning below. I love punting at Kempton, always seem to do well there and while the card isn't awe inspiring tomorrow I fancy one or two.
The first of those is Spring Loaded in the opening maiden. I don't like guessy punts like this usually and I rarely bet in maidens but this runner catches the eye. Ran below market expectations on debut when well punted finishing a close up last of four. The winner of the race and the 2nd have since ran well again, the 2nd subsequently winning and then running well in a higher grade handicap. This is a maiden but it looks weak and very winnable, especially as the step up to 6f is sure to suit as he wasn't given a hard time by Ryan Moore on debut yet finished well when the penny dropped. However the real reason I am especially sweet on this runner is stats based. Firstly jockey/trainer combination is 29% on the all weather which is eye catching but the sire stats are what got me. 33% SR on the all weather for £1 LSP of £47. He is a first season sire making a big impact on the polytrack and his foals are 2/2 at 6f on the all weather. At a forecasted price of 10/1, with the debut under his belt, step up in trip and tackling a new surface, I will be having a right old bash each way if he opens anything like that.
A nice little handicap is the 15.45. Messila Star is a worthy favourite based on his last run alone behind subsequent listed runner up Tenor, that's good form indeed in the context of this 0-75 race. Anya for Henry Candy will surely be winning soon off 72 but hopefully it isn't today as I'm taking a chance on Lady Cecil's Equitable. This son of Dansili was backed as if defeat was out of the question on debut returning an even money favourite when leading close home after taking a wide course throughout. The way he finished his race was very encouraging. Three horses behind subsequently have won and now rated between 75-80 so off 75 tomorrow you would be hopeful he could do some damage. That said, he actually has a generous 7lbs weight for age allowance meaning his mark is effectively 68 which judged on that debut form, he is very capable of winning off. He has however since ran on turf three times and has ran poorly. I won't make excuses but they were on different ground over a few different trips on turf, but it's the return to the polytrack that has got me interested today. Going right handed shouldn't be a problem as his sire's offspring perform marginally better right handed and the incredible strike rates of the jockey/trainer on the polytrack is what drew me in. Lady Cecil and James Doyle polytrack form reads 13312211242512 for a 36% win SR and 86% place SR. They mean business when they team up on the artifical surface and with this horse returning to the polytrack off a mark he can exploit, 11/1 looks big and I'll be having a little go each way though the favourite is the one to beat.
I think the handicapper has made a terrible mistake only increasing Lady Horatia's handicap rating by a 1lb for her last race. I have had a good look through the form and I am convinced that 85 underestimates this lovely big grey filly. Let's look at the last race. A 0-95 at Newmarket. Despite pulling Dwyer's arms out throughout the first half of a slowly run race, she stayed on well from the midfield to finish a solid third behind Athenian who went up to 96 for that win. She also beat a Godolhin horse rated 94 who has since ran a solid race in the Stewards Cup. The race before she got a good gallop which she probably enjoys and stormed home very well inside the final furlong after being switched and not having the clearest of runs almost catching the winner who went up to 92 for that win and also ran at Goodwood earlier this week. Worth noting that run was after missing the break by five lengths. She is dropped in grade today, is unexposed on the surface (but has run a solid race on it before) and unexposed at 6f and I think she is a cut above this field though we haven't seen the best of one or two of these to be fair. That said she has the best form on offer and if settling a bit better with a decent gallop that hopefully will be set by Bowstar, she has a favourite's chance. I think 9/4 is about fair and maybe even that is generous? 4/1 available in a few places and that is value to me, today's NAP and it's a strong one.
Find it quite miraculous that Baars Causeway hasn't yet managed to win a race. She is again dropped in class and certainly has the right man in the saddle and she really should be shedding her maiden tag in this desperate affair. The two dangers are the handicap debutants but stats for those aren't inspiring and at this level it is always a bit guessy but surely the filly won't find a better opportunity. Her European pedigree is certainly interesting if not inspiring but she ran some huge races as a 2yo. She was 3L behind dual Group 3 winning J Wonder in a maiden at Newbury, finished 2L behind Group 3 winning Amazing Maria as well has having the beating of many horses now rated in the 80's and 90's. She went down by a short head and half a length in two races in her first year but hasn't fired at all in her second season. That short head defeat was here over the 7f in this class and despite running nothing more than an okay race when last here, she is now on a very exploitable mark of 63 with conditions optimum and very beatable opposition. Not having her out the places and I fancy her to win this. 11/1.
Selections:
14.15 Spring Loaded 10/1 ew - WINNER
15.45 Equitable 11/1 ew - NR
17.15 Lady Horatia 4/1 NAP
17.50 Baars Causeway 11/1 NB
Good Luck if you like the look of any of these and take the plunge with us.
THT
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