Very good start yesterday with our IWAC going in at 10/1. We made a big deal of the sire stats on blog and they paid off, Zebedee offspring now 3/3 over 6f on polytrack and a foal by the same sire also took a race later on the card with a half sibling in behind in 2nd. He is a sire to follow this all wether season over autumn and winter. Anyway we also landed a good lay posted on Twitter but after that the NAP could only manage 3rd and Baars Causeway still can't win so a bit of a disappointing end but more profit and we increased our lead on the tipping blog for August. Rinsed the Kempton card again tomorrow and our thoughts are below.
18.00 - Ajig has won at the course and went close last time but has been beaten a cumulative total of over 30 lengths on her two C/D runs. One or two potential improvers in here but I'm going with the more solid option in the shape of Plucky Dip. The only course and distance winner in the field, the John Ryan trained gelding arguably ran a career best last time in a much higher grade when finishing 2L behind a Haggas horse that has since won on the bridle off a mark of 83. His official mark is 62, though this is a Classified Stakes and he receives 7lbs from the 4yos as do the other 3yos in race. However he may prove a bit better than this grade in time and will hopefully be a nice price when the markets are formed. The jockey booking of in form William Buick also looks significant who had a double here from two rides yesterday. A very solid selection to start the card off I think and today's NAP.
18.30 - Godolphin run two here and I am going to have a chancey play on the white cap Momayyaz. She ran on well when the penny dropped on debut though the stablemate Rapprochement had already flown to win by a devastating 11L. However that horse has since been pitched into Group 3 company at Goodwood when well beaten after being very badly hampered and eased down and interesting to see where he goes next as is clearly highly regarded. Anyway Momayyaz should handle the surface looking at her pedigree and should have come on a lot for the debut run. The capable young rider can claim a very handy 7lbs here which may make the difference and with the trainers 'second strings' beating the first string 37% of the time in the past year, the white cap might be coming home in front of the blue once more for a trainer who has a superb SR of 30% at Kempton. Another interesting stat is his runners who finished second on debut on turf then switched to AW for second run have a 49% SR with 24 of the last 25 runners coming 1st or 2nd, so I think we can at least be hopeful of a run for our money. Just a chancey one though as I have said, forecast price is 6/1 and will at least be a good each way bet to nothing though a few unexposed ones in here.
19.00 - James Fanshawe is a man in form and had a winner and a nose second here yesterday. His handicap debutants perform exceptionally well and in this weak looking race, Swordbearer catches the eye. He ran his best maiden run over C/D and has to be of interest at 15/2 if showing improvement for handicap debut off what could be a very lenient mark of 70. The main danger is Gosden's.
20.30 - Dire Straits makes appeal for a yard in form in the shape of Chris Wall. The young lad in the saddle has also had a great season and the pair have a 33% SR in AW handicaps. He takes off 3lbs meaning this horse has been let loose off 60 and is stepped up significantly in trip from a mile to a mile and a half and being by Teofilo, this is sure to bring about improvement. While having shown little so far this colt is related to AW winners and the surface should suit on his polytrack debut and despite being short enough at 7/1 based on form alone, that price could look silly if today is the day.
21.00 Good race to end and am sure many will be on Sleep Walk who could be well ahead of the handicapper but I fancy taking a chance on a horse that has somehow been priced up at 33/1. Meritocracy is one of two C/D winners in the field but his recent turf form has tailed off slightly. However he has been running in better races of late and returning to the AW will be the key to improved form today I think. He is now off 82, which is 3lb below his last winning mark (over C/D) and his course form reads 311, that 3rd when only going down by a length on debut. The biggest danger is Dinneratmidnight for me, I think there are doubts about the surface for the jolly and needs to improve against horses rated up to 20lb higher though that said, she won very cheekily last time. The unexposed ones worry me a tad but if this horse is sparked by the return to all-weather then this is one of the best 33/1 shots you will find all week.
All today's are chancey to be honest except the NAP which I think is quite solid. A maiden punt and two horses that need to improve for handicap debut could well be hit or miss before finishing with the each way bet of the week, in my humble opinion at least.
18.00 Plucky Dip 3/1 NAP - 3rd
18.30 Momayyaz 6/1 ew - WINNER
19.00 Sword Bearer 10/1 ew - 2nd
20.30 Dire Straits 7/1 ew IWAC
21.00 Meritocracy 33/1 ew NB - 3rd
One from the tracker too in the shape of Mecca's Mirage in the 18.45 but not backing as I am sure I have heard somewhere that she needs a wind op so best left alone until hearing differently though one to maybe monitor in the market anyway just in case.
Good Luck if you follow, gone with smaller stakes today as generally quite speculative selections, so go easy.
THT
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