Decent enough day yesterday with an impressive performance by our 6/1 winner and some place money at 10/1 and 33/1 to boot. NAP ran okay but really thought it should have won. Swordbearer just ran into one on the day but showed massively improved form, as did Gosden's back in third and they both have made their way into the tracker. Dire Straits did one of the two things I expected; win or come last. Unfotunately for us it was the latter despite it being backed into 3/1 fav from 7/1. I thought our NB had nicked the race as he led for 6.9 furlongs of the 7 but got nailed on the line. However, he held on for third beating the jolly and 33/1 place returns are always welcome. I did actually back the winner at 50.0 on the machine thanks to someone mentioning the form figures on polytrack seconds before the off, so I was a happy chappy anyway! On to today.
Candlelight ran a screamer on her all-weather debut last time only going down by a length to her half sister, the earlier highly tried 3/10 shot Magic Florence after missing the start by a few strides. The pair were over ten lengths clear of the remainder at the finish and in the context of this race that is strong form. Al Fareej is obviously well regarded and rates the main danger but looking at forecast SP's you have to side with this Charlie Hills filly. It's no surprise she stepped up massively on her turf debut when trying the polytrack last time as she is out of Zabedee, the first season all weather wonder stallion! ;-) His stats say 5/13 on the surface but in some races he has had multiple runners so it's actually 5/10 races won where he has had runners, and two of those not included came second. Those five wins have come in the last six races and he is my all-weather sire to follow this autumn and winter for 2yos. Will see what the price opens up at but all things considered, this filly looks to have an outstanding chance for a trainer whose last 18 runners in polytrack maidens have finished in the top four. NB.
Skytrain is another one I really fancy to be very tough to beat. The fact is that he won't be beaten if running up to the form of his last race at Goodwood, especially in this lower grade. He conceded weight to five horses rated up to 7lbs higher than him and beat them all bar the winner Extremity who was rated 84 and recieving 2lbs off Skytrain (78) so effectively he had 8lbs to find with that runner. The second was Buckstay who looks a nice horse, rated 86 and will go on to better things. The gallop was a frenetic one set by the horse that eventually finished tailed off and considering how close he was to the pace, it was a monumental effort to gamely hang on for third from better rated horses in behind. He took up the running a long way out and stayed on really willingly. What I am saying is he ran a race that suggests he is soon to return to winning ways. So how much was he raised for this huge run? 2lbs, 3lbs, 4lbs, maybe even 5lbs? Nope, he was dropped a pound in the handicap and has a mark of 77. With the rider's claim he is effectively off 74. Can you see why I really fancy it now? Not saying this isn't competitive but if the horse runs a simlar race to at Goodwood, nothing gets close. Worth mentioning he should handle the undulations of this unique course as he handled Goodwood just fine. Shame Joe Fanning goes to Pontefract to ride just the one in the maiden (wink wink) as if he was here I would be having one of my biggest bets of the season. However, dropped in grade with perfect conditons and off effectively 4lbs lower, there will be no excuses today as he has won five races off higher marks in the past. Price you ask? 7/4? 9/4? Wrong, 5/1 :O NAP.
TRACKER - Barye is of interest in the 7.40 returning to the All-Weather. He won his maiden in good style at Lingfield over 1f shorter and his sire has a 23% SR at Kempton. He ran a very solid race last time and the return to Polyrack for a yard in superb form makes 7/1 look value each way. Bishop Of Ruscombe is the danger especially as Probert has a 44% SR when riding for owner David Brownlow.
TRACKER - Third Dimension back on slower ground and upped in trip makes strong appeal over in Ireland. He won his maiden on easy ground before being sent to Royal Ascot for the Brittania when far from disgraced off 95. The ground was probably the excuse last time when backed into favouritism and on a slower surface he can recapture form with the step up to 10 furlongs likely to suit.
Two I will be keeping a close eye on in the markets are Poyle Vinnie and Toto Skyllachy. The former was hammered in the betting on stable debut when 3rd, ususally smart money and there may have been one or two faesible excuses and he is still lightly raced. Has the stable jockey on board this time too and at 4/1 might be worth a small punt. Toto Skyllachy makes debut for new yard but is undoubtedly well treated on past exploits. He was heavily punted last time and if in the mood he can do some damage eased in grade off 79. 12/1 opening show looks a fair price indeed. Keep an eye on Twitter as I will update when I can whether I have backed or not, as of this moment I am not offering them as selections, will leave them to you.
Selections:
NAP: 15.50 Skytrain 5/1
NB: 14.00 Candlelight 9/2
Tracker:
IWAC: 19.00 Third Dimension 6/1 ew
19.40 Barye 7/1 ew
Good Luck if you follow and remember to keep an eye on our tweets through the day for any selections, race information or potential lays. You can set up a notification everytime we tweet so you don't miss anything by going on our profile homepage, pressing the settings button which looks like a cog-wheel and pressing 'turn on notiffications.' Then again, why you would want me spamming your phone every five minutes I don't know! Good luck if you go with us today, more profit yesterday and long may it continue.
THT
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