Not often I get excited enough to write a blog on a Monday, especially at this horrible time of year in the transition period between the Cheltenham hangover and flat season being just days away. Furthermore it is often advisable that when you fancy plenty of runners, you leave it altogether as you end up backing far too many runners and everything falls apart. However (bear with me!) these are mostly big prices with in my opinion outstanding chances. Lets start on the All-Weather, which has again been in the spotlight recently, mostly amidst allegations of fixed races, horses being stopped, dodgy betting patterns etc leaving punters wondering whether studying the form book is worth their while as only the people on the inside seem to know what's what.
14.40 Climaxfortackle 10/1 - Three times course winner was quietly fancied when last here when finishing a close second off tumbling mark. Was then punted next time at Kempton when arguably unlucky until running no sort of race last time out. Coming back to Wolverhampton in a race likely to be run at a good gallop due to Amosite, which is what she needs and being the only C/D winner in the field, everything looks set for a big big run from 4lb below her last winning mark.
15.10 Sam Spade 12/1 - Still only a 4yo and didn't make the cut at Hannon's so transferred to Derek Shaw. Things not gone to plan so far and only beaten 6 rivals in 5 races, finishing last on three of those occasions. So why will he run better today? Well he is dropped in grade and can race at nearly basement level today and is now 13lb below last winning mark. Ran over a trip he didn't stay last time and dropped 5lb since so can run off 52 today. Is also dropped back significantly in trip to 7f which can prove key and when connections get called into the stewards room for 'apparent improvement in form,' they have the perfect excuse as Sam gets a visor fitted for the first time today. Also backed Piccolo Express as a small ew coverbet as well below lwm and only C/D winner in field.
Moving on to my local track now at Towcester, the most testing track in the country where three runners catch the eye.
14.00 Such A Legend 11/4 - My best bet of the card and best bet of the day probably. The plan is to go chasing next season but he is turned out again quickly after giving odds on shot and highly regarded Kilcooley a scare last time out. I get the impression connections want a win before tucking him away for chasing in winter and this race looks a golden opportunity. The drop back to 2m suited down to the ground last time and he is over that trip again today. He stays further than this, which at Towcester is a massive asset and with man of the moment Tom Scu in the saddle, I'm not having anything getting past him.
15.00 Bull and Bush 3/1 - Found My Miss Lucy too strong in the finish before romping to victory last time putting the race to bed very nicely, beating an odds on Henderson hot-pot in the process. Stepped up in trip today which on breeding suits her and is strongly fancied to be too good for this lot and is very much a horse to follow, whatever happens on her first try at a staying trip today.
15.30 - Bishophill Jack 18/1 - The each way bet of the day is this C/D winner who regularly runs his best races here and looks handicapped to strike after showing some life last time out. Eased in grade and if on a going day could represent mighty value at what looks a generous 18/1. Also 3/5 in Class 5 races and has a change of headgear today too. Small coverbet in the shape of another well handicapped C/D winner, Jolly Boy's Outing who is surely a ticking time bomb despite his advancing years.
Finally off to Taunton where I fancy one runner at a decent price.
15.50 Spanish Optimist 10/1 - A seven runner race which is annoying but this runner intrigues me but to be honest it is a bit chancy. Richard Johnson rides this one instead of the favourite for Phillip Hobbs where Tom O'Brien gets the leg up and can't really work out why. RJ can easily do the weight on Hobbs inmate and has ridden him before. Maybe it is because SO has a better chance? After taking a closer look I saw that Dickie rode Spanish Optimist once before, and won at a similar price to today beating some decent horses in the process. He hasn't taken that well to chasing but is dropped significantly in class today which could be key, and as I say the jockey booking is very interesting. Anyway, worth a small ew bet I thought.
Selections:
14.00 Such A Legend 11/4 -2ND
14.40 Climaxfortackle 10/1 ew
15.00 Bull and Bush 3/1 - WINNER
15.10 Sam Spade 12/1 ew (Piccolo Express 10/1 coverbet - 3rd)
15.30 Bishophill Jack 18/1 ew (Jolly Boy's Outing 18/1 coverbet)
15.50 Spanish Optimist 10/1 ew
If you are feeling lucky then have a small go at this ew L15:
Climaxfortackle, Sam Spade, Spanish Optimist, Bishophill Jack.
25p ew returns £11186 at best prices ;-)
Good Luck if you fancy any of these, and thankyou for reading.
THT
Sunday, 23 March 2014
Thursday, 6 March 2014
Cheltenham 2014
It's been a fantastic jumps season where old favourites just kept winning and new champions burst on to the scene. In the four days of best jumps action in the world, we will find out which horses make it, and which fall just short of greatness. This season's Cheltenham Festival looks to be as awesome as ever, with arguably the race of the past few seasons on Day One, The 2014 Champion Hurdle. What a belter it is going to be, hopefully we can find a few winners to help enjoy the four day bonanza even more.
Every jumps season revolves around Cheltenham, and from day one we are looking for horses with realistic prospects of winning at Prestbury Park come March. Some horses won't make it, some will, others will end up being a disappointment, a few will impress but then there's that one that gives you that feeling. That feeling that this horse could be anything; when you think you have seen something special. Immediately he or she goes into the notebook for Cheltenham and you have a browse of the ante-post markets in the likely race (if that is your thing) and see a price three times what you expected. You place your bet and now you wait the long wait every AP punter has to endure every year.
I have seen a few performances that have given me this feeling in my gut this year. While not a big ante-post player myself, I understand why people love it. It takes patience (which I have a frustrating lack of) but you have to be prepared to be very disappointed and frustrated. I have had one or two AP plays this season myself, but nothing major.
Will first go through my confident bets in detail, then post some others I fancy, then throw in a few dark horses to keep an eye out for throughout the four days too.
Let's get started.
Supreme Novices Hurdle
The Supreme will kick off the Festival with the famous loud cheer from the Cheltenham terraces. The race is always run at a breakneck gallop over a distance of just over 2m. Last year My Tent Or Yours who this year lines up in the Champion Hurdle was the well fancied favourite for JP McManus, Jonjo O'Neill and AP McCoy in those famous colours. Champagne Fever however was quietly fancied in Ireland and the money arrived by the bucket-load on the morning of the opening race. The grey gamely made all and despite MTOY looking all over the winner when cruising upsides before the last, the brave grey dug in and repelled the McCoy drive; the rest is history. This year he goes for the Arkle, the very next race on the card.
This years Supreme looks as exciting as ever, with some really nice prospects lining up. Irving will be many peoples' idea of the winner as he is unbeaten for Paul Nicholls over hurdles and looks a very smart horse. He is flat bred and has bags of speed - a fascinating contender, especially when you consider he is said to need better ground which he looks likely to get here. That said he hasn't really faced a testing track like Cheltenham just yet. Vautour is the main market rival and was impressive when merely being pushed out to beat odds on shot The Tullow Tank who now doesn't run here due to the Fenton scandal that has come to light. TTT could be a very smart horse so Vautour has to be taken seriously, though at as short as 5/2 would certainly not be for me. Josses Hill is another with good claims and Alan King's smart flat recruit, First Mohican at 33/1 could outrun those odds. The apparent WPM second string also is one to keep an eye on, money has started to arrive for Wicklow Brave and one to keep very much on side. The forgotten horse, however could be The Liquidator, who can put a poor run behind him and might run a big race at 25/1. He has already shown a liking for Cheltenham and can be excused his last run. Not one to rule out, despite the fact his trainer faces a race against time to have him ready.
Stats:
Worth pointing out no favourite or joint favourite has won this race since 2004. Six of the last nine winners have been priced at double figure odds. Irish entrants have a strong record in this race and most winners have shown good form in large fields while being lightly raced. Fourteen of the last sixteen winners won their last race. Eleven of the last thirteen winners had raced at least once in the last 45 days.
I have to say, the way Irving quickened lto to put the race to bed after making a hash of the last really stayed with me - was very impressive and has a great chance but is probably too short now for me, especially as there are one or two niggling doubts. The Liquidator interests me e/w but not as much as my selection for this race, 100/1 shot Un Ace. The way this highly regarded horse travelled on debut for Kim Bailey was very notable and he always looked the winner. That was until a bad mistake 3 out where he pecked on landing and lost all momentum. However, he quickly picked up the bridle and came clear with ease after the last in taking fashion. The strong pace here will suit this horse down to the ground and he could be making up ground late on as they tire ahead. Yes he didn't beat much and he can't afford to make mistakes in this race but if he lines up he could throw a spanner in the works at huge odds as he is a horse with bags of potential.
Selection: UN ACE 100/1 ew
Preview evening notes:
Vaniteux was very well fancied by the panel and Henderson stable jockey Andrew Tinkler opted for Vaniteux as opposed to stablemate Josses Hill. They noted however that the race hasn't always been the intended target, yet money has started to arrive in the past few days or so and he is fancied at home. Most of the panel agreed that Vaniteux will start a single figure price, with suggestions of 6/1-7/1 SP. It was confirmed that Barry Geraghty is likely to ride the horse and Andrew Tinkler made the horse his e/w bet of the festival. For what it's worth Rory nominated Wilde Blue Yonder as his e/w fancy of the race.
Arkle
The Arkle, like the Supreme, is run at a furious pace with a huge emphasis on jumping technique. Market leaders traditionally perform well in this race and always worth keeping an eye on both Alan King and Nicky Henderson horses as both trainers have a good record in this race. Last year the grey Simonsig held off a mighty run from Mouse Morris's Baily Green who looked the winner up the run in when closing him down until the odds on grey asserted close home under Geraghty to win in workmanlike fashion.
Another grey, and current favourite Champagne Fever will be fancied by many to take this year's crown. The horse loves Cheltenham, and as already mentioned is very game and brave but I think there is a big question mark over his jumping, as shown last time when being well beaten by both Trifolium and Defy Logic. The aforementioned Trifolium is an exciting contender for me here. He jumps well, has strong form and there is definitely more to come. He likes Cheltenham too, as shown when 3rd in the Supreme in 2012, just a neck behind the ill fated Darlan and a length or two behind the Donald McCain trained winner. 6/1 a great price I think. Rock On Ruby is one I fancied for a long time and have backed ante-post at a fair price. That said this field looks competitive enoug and he can't afford to make novicey errors though will get his ground. Another worth a mention is Valdez. I love this horse and his big white face and he looks a fair price at 10/1. Alan King who, as mentioned, has a good record in this, is putting enormous faith in him as Kingy's other 2m chasing star Balder Succes will miss Cheltenham. BS put in a rousing jumping display and won with a good bit in hand last time and is very much a horse to follow.
Stats:
Eight of the last ten winners came from the first three in the market. Eight of the last ten winners won their last race. Only two of the last ten favourites have won the race. Nine of the last ten winners aged between 5 and 7. The last eight winners were either first or second in their last three races.
Not one that really stands out for me at a bigger price here and I have already backed Rock On Ruby AP but Trifolium is my selection for Arkle glory. 6/1 looks a very fair price all things considered and I think this horse is still improving. He jumps well, has course form and surely will put up a bold bid. Valdez would be a danger too and I may have a little multi-tricast on the morning on the three mentioned. It's Cheltenham after all! ;-)
Selection: TRIFOLIUM 6/1
Preview evening notes:
Jumping doubts about Champagne Fever but Tinkler says horse deserves to be favourite. Trifolium touted as the wise man's bet of the race. Tony Calvin says Rock on Ruby was never seen as a chaser by Paul Nicholls, the horse has had his breathing issues and at the age of 9, is too short at current price. Ted Veale was Dan Skelton's ew fancy in the race, but each panellist put up a different horse for the race, showing the competitive nature of this year's renewal.
Champion Hurdle
Being dubbed the race of the meeting and for good reason. It looks an absolute belter of a race. The line up is mouthwatering. Reigning champ Hurricane Fly, Twiston Davies stable star The New One, the strong travelling My Tent Or Yours, Our Conor who demolished his rivals in the Triumph last year, the forgotten horse Jezki, as well as Melodic Rendezvous amongst others. What. A. Line-up. Would have been even better with Annie Power but she goes for the World Hurdle (more on that later!)
Last year loyal Hurricane Fly backers had their hearts in their mouths at one stage but the wonder horse who has an astonishing amount of Grade One's to his name showed his bravery running out a comfortable enough winner in the end from Rock on Ruby who made a brave effort from the front. His big heart shone that day and despite people rubbishing the Fly's Grade One victories ("hardly a grade one, only beaten three average handicappers blah blah blah") he has the heart of a lion and is a fantastic beast. By the way if he is beaten this year and the haters come out again, just remind them of the dark day last year at the festival when they layed the Fly with their entire Chelt fund, that will shut them up :-)
This year he lines up again, and is in flying form as ever, twice beating the re-opposing Our Conor and Jezki. As for My Tent Or Yours, you can argue all day and give me all the reasons under the sun why he will go well but let me tell you this. He will not win, he is not good enough, end of. While I admire the horse, I just can't see he has the class to win a Champion Hurdle, especially with a stellar line up like this against him. Nope, not for me at all. I am a huge fan of The New One too and he could come second or third but not my idea of the winner either. Despite blundering the last and throwing the race, he was disappointing last time as I thought he would have the class to recover and get back up. However, he will likely get a good gallop here which will suit down to the ground and should run a big race. Jezki has enough questions to answer and despite the enticing price, hard to think he is good enough though there are one or two bits of money around for him with the MTOY injury scare coming to light. Interesting too that Captain Cee Bee has been supplemented for the race.
Stats:
Only four winners over the age of eight since 1951. 25 of last 30 won their last race. 18 of last 24 had won at Cheltenham before. Irish won 9 of last 15. Two of last seven favourites won. Only one five year old won in 29 years.
The one I strongly fancy for this, despite his young age is Our Conor. While admittedly, the price is skinny in the context of this race, I was really taken with his last run behind the Fly. He travelled so so well throughout the race and took over just after the last. However the Fly dug deep and his big heart won him the day getting back up close home but OC will have again come on for that and remember nothing has ever beaten the Fly at Leopardstown. OC also loves Cheltenham. Undoubtedly the most impressive performance of the 2013 festival was Our Conor's humiliation of his rivals, bounding away on the bridle loving every second of it to win by 15 odd lengths. A performance that truly took the breath away. You can ignore his reappearance run this season because he 'looked like a hairy goat' and was badly in need of the run. Also, he is a superb jumper of hurdles, which you have to be to win a Champion Hurdle. Dessie Hughes will have him 100% race fit this time and I think he will run a mighty race; the young kid on the block (remember he is only a 5yo - hugely exciting animal!) can teach his more experienced rivals a lesson, at the main expense of the grand old boy, Hurricane Fly. Will be a cracking race either way and I can't wait.
Selection: OUR CONOR 9/2
Festival Preview Notes:
Most of the panel seemed to be on the MTOY/TNO formline but all admit that race is an appalling betting proposition. General consesus is that Hurricane Fly is the one they all have to beat. Tony Calvin makes very good point about Our Conor. Horse was massively weak in market in last race, available at 7/1-8/1 on exchanges and massively outran his market expectations. Suggests that he will improve and Dessie will have him 100% ready on the day, his tentative selection for the race. Tinkler sings MTOY praises, little made of injury scare and is his idea of the winner.
Neptune
The New One was victorious in this race last year, staying on well in the final furlong to win in cosy fashion after taking up the running just before the last. Mullins' Pont Alexandre was many people's idea of banker of the whole four day meeting but ultimately disappointed back in third place at short odds.
Faugheen is the place to start in this. The gelding is unbeaten for Mullins, winning four races from four attempts, all in quite taking fashion. Looks a smart horse indeed though lacks substantial high class form for me, especially at the unappealing price of 11/4 at time of writing. Needs to show he can mix it in top class races and he may well do, but for me is worth finding something with a meatier price, especially as there are one or two concerns over his jumping. Red Sherlock may just be the answer here. What still looks a generous 6/1, a flawless six from six, the chestnut looks well worth a punt. Has course form too, last time winning the trial by 3L from the well touted Rathvinden. That is solid form. The one I see as a viable ew player is Royal Boy who is priced at 14/1 at the time of writing. Just under a length behind Melodic Rendezvous on debut here at Chelt, this horse has since gone on to win the Tolworth Hurdle, beating his better fancied stablemate Josses Hill in the process. His stamina told that day and going back up in trip will be no problem, and does look good value here at the odds.
Stats:
Only two of the last twenty-four winners weren't aged five or six. Nine of the last ten winners finished first or second last time out. Nine out of the last ten winners had won over at least 2m4f over hurdles. Eight out of the last ten have finished first or second in all completed hurdle races.
Have backed two for this myself as mentioned. Firstly David Pipe's unbeaten Red Sherlock. Course form is so important at Cheltenham and he also has more experience in better races than the market leader. Still think the price is generous, you can even profit backing ew at this stage should he only manage a place. Royal Boy has also taken some of my cash e/w. That Tolworth hurdle form over a trip on the sharp side looks strong, stepping back up will suit this horse and has to be a big each way player at the very least. 14/1 looks big and not sure how long that will last as the money is starting to arrive.
Selection: RED SHERLOCK 6/1 and ROYAL BOY 14/1 ew
Preview evening notes:
Andrew Tinkler seemed very optimistic about Royal Boy's chances and suggested that the now deflated price of 7/1 still represents good ew value. Rory has backed Faugheen and Tony Calvin has had his biggest bet in the race in the shape of Un Temps Pour Tout and makes him his e/w bet of the festival. Red Sherlock got a good mention and Lydia really likes Sure Reef for the Coral Cup but he takes his place here instead.
RSA
The competitors who line up in this are all coming to the end of their first season over fences and this race can be their stepping stone to great things as shown by Denman in 2007. The race is over 3m and is one of the more testing races of the festival. Last year Lord Windermere took advantage of a tumbling fall at the death from Boston Bob, who looked to have the race at his mercy. LW held off the late challenge of Lyreen Legend to win by just over a length. A fortunate winner, and the horse hasn't done much since, being well beaten in three graded starts since his RSA triumph.
This year looks a particularly tricky renewal with no obvious winner jumping out of the card. However, one horse I have been waiting for all season is Gordon Elliot's tank of a horse, Don Cossack. The German bred seven year old is an absolute beast, if you are at Cheltenham go and see this horse in the paddock, has a massive presence about him. Ballycasey will start likely favourite but in a race of this competitive nature he really is too short. Annacotty deserves a special mention, one we have followed all year and Corrin Wood certainly looks a player while Many Clouds for me is a bit of a dark horse.
Stats:
The last thirteen winners all ran at least three times over fences. Only two six year olds have won the RSA since 1978. The last three favourites to have won were rated at least 134 over hurdles. The Irish have only won four RSA's since 1985 but those four have all been in the last ten years Seven year olds have won eight of the last ten renewals, including the last seven in a row. 24 of the last 25 winners had either won or been second on their last run.
As I say, Don Cossack is the one I have been waiting for. Going up to 3m for the first time is sure to suit and he should run a big race, at a price too, still 16/1 widely available. Corrin Wood interests me but a tad short in context now for me to really be interested. That said, another horse I simply have to back is Annacotty. The horse improved 22lbs in just three months, as well as giving trainer, jockey and owner their first Grade 1 success when dotting up in the Feltham winning very impressively, especially considering he was the lowest rated horse in the field. That is very strong form, and going back up to 3m will suit this front runner down to the ground. There could even be more to come as he is only a 6yo and he has experience at Cheltenham, a valuable asset which some competitors don't possess, most notably the current favourite. Despite having a key stat against him (age), he looks a likely player. Rule Annacotty out at your peril.
Selection: DON COSSACK 16/1 ew and ANNACOTTY 20/1 ew
Preview evening notes:
Rory says Corrin Wood is being well backed but needs softer ground. Smad Place is Stan James biggest loser in the book. Rory tips up Carlingford Lough ew. Lydia thinks Le Bec is still a massive price and there were doubts expressed about Sam Winner's right trip - connections not sure whether he wants 3m or 4m. Stat mentioned that the last 50 winners had run in the same calendar year. This rules out Morning Assembly. Smad place nominated as the classiest horse in the race, however his confidence and attitude questioned. Dan Skelton puts in a very good word for Many Clouds at a price and everyone against Ballycasey - big deal made of schooling fall.
Champion Chase
Was disappointed like all true racing fans but also very surprised when Nicky Henderson announced that the wonderful Sprinter Sacre was to miss this year's festival. Obviously the heart issue was a lot more serious that some people thought and the right decision has been made for the safety and well being of the horse. Hope to see him back on the track soon and back to his glorious best here again next year. Sprinter Sacre's absence now opens this year's race right up.
Stats:
Biggest price winner since 2000 was 16/1. Only three double figure price winners in last thirteen years. Eleven of the last fourteen winners were 5/1 or less. 21 of the last 28 winners had been previously placed at the Festival. Only five favourites won in last sixteen years.
While Sire De Grugy is a very good horse, he is not my idea of a Champion Chase winner. He much prefers running the other way and his runs here have been disappointing, no not for me, especially at 7/4. Benefficient is one of great interest. Last year's Jewson winner bounced right back to form last time and is a horse with class. He stays 2m very well too. A more interesting contender at the price for me, however is Module. Backed him last time when winning gamely from the Arkle contender, Dodging Bullets. He was headed but his stamina told, and he got back up close home. Staying the 2m well is very important at Chelt. He ran a very good race here last year too, not far behind the previously mentioned Benefficient. Everything happened a bit quickly for him and when the penny finally dropped it was too late. However, at 16/1 he looks well worth an ew play to me if ridden a bit handier and with another year's experience under the belt.
Selection: MODULE 16/1 ew
Preview evening notes:
Rory says Sire De Grugy the one to back by default. Baily Green being well backed and Alderwood has been ruled out for the entire festival. Kid Cassidy likely to place due to the likely way he will be ridden says Lydia. Dan Skelton really fancies Wishfull Thinking and nominates him as his e/w bet of the festival. Lydia and Andrew both opt for Kid Cassidy as likely to be placed, Special Tiara takes Tony's fancy. Rory thinks Sizing Europe is overpriced.
Ryanair
With last year's victor Cue Card now a non runner for the entire meet due to a muscle injury, this race is wide open. He probably would have gone to the Gold Cup anyway but again, while disappointing, the right decision has been made. There could still be some serious horses taking part, the grey Al Ferof, First Lieutenant for Mouse Morris who was 2nd last year and another grey, Dynaste amongst others.
Stats:
Only one of the nine winners priced over 6/1. Only two favourites have won the race. Seven of the nine winners aged eight or over. All winners bar one had previously won at the course.
Dynaste is a horse I like and have backed this season but I missed the bigger price and I have been disappointed by his recent runs and now have decided to jump ship. First Lieutenant is a serious horse and looks a real danger. Benefficient could line up here instead of the champion chase but with SS out will surely opt for the 2m event. Tried to find some value in the race and at first glance I was going to leave it, but after speaking to someone on Twitter I was convinced he was on to something. This horse ran in the Lexus, travelling strongly until tiring up the run in, finishing not far behind some classy horses. He was said by connections to have badly needed the run. He was then bang there in the Hennessey next time until late in the day when tiring again against some proper horses once more as you would expect in such a race. However, the drop back in trip for Lyreen Legend looks a great move and he ran a cracker last year in the RSA. Yes, this horse has really tickled my fancy and can defy the stats and run a massive race at what could turn out to be a massive price at 20/1. << Since writing this Dessie has said that he will likely target the Gold Cup which is very annoying as the Ryanair is there for the taking and Lyreen Legend doesn't stay well enough to win the GC!
Preview evening notes:
All the panel agree that the two greys will fight this out. Tony thinks Al Ferof would have won the Champion Chase if competing but thinks Dynaste is the one to beat at the longer trip. Rory can't see past the top three (including Benefficient) who Lydia says will win this race if lining up. Tinkler thinks Dynaste is worth forgiving his last run and nominates him as likely winner then it is revealed that Dynaste has had a wind op since his last race. Pipe yard keeping it quiet though.
World Hurdle
The World Hurdle is the feature race on day three of the festival. Last year, Solwhit took the glory in the absence of Big Bucks who won it the four years prior. Oscar Whisky was the 9/4 favourite but never really looked happy and ended up not even completing, being pulled up before jumping the last. This year, Big Buck's is back, aiming to win his fifth World Hurdle. Whatever happens here, I am of the opinion that this will be the old fella's last race, though that is by no means a fact. Annie Power is a mouth watering contender and this is being billed as a straight match up. However, the unexposed and hugely exciting More Of That throws a spanner in the works.
Stats:
No 5yo ever won. French bred horses won eight of last twelve runnings. Solwhit was the first Irish trained winner for eighteen years.Only one front runner has held on for a place since 1996. Seventeen of the last twenty winners had run at the previous year's festival. Seven of the last ten runnings have seen the top five in the betting occupy the top three finishing places. Nine of the last ten winners won the race before. No double figure priced winner this century.
Two words for me here. Annie. Power. My biggest fancy of the festival is she. The wonder mare is still yet to be troubled by any horse she has faced, and this won't change in the World Hurdle. I thought she would contest the Champion Hurdle originally (which would have made the race even more special) but that Willie Mullins is a shrewd and wise old man. Coming over to England for a 2m prep race, yeah right was he planning on the Champion Hurdle ;-) All part of the fun! Back to Annie. A perfect 10/10, the step up to 3m will enable her to show even more. The further she goes the better she will be. She recorded her best RPR when running over the greatest distance she has contested; 20f at Cheltenham on heavy ground, making Zarkandar look like the stable cat in the process. Even more impressive perhaps was her Fairyhouse victory last March, again over 20f. She really could be anything, she could be something very very special indeed and I think this is the race that finally makes people say 'whoa, this horse is something else.' She could be scary good. More Of That is exciting, but will need to be something out of this world if he can take this on only his forth start. After this race I think Big Bucks will be seen as a great of the past and Annie Power will be seen as a world beater of the future. Banker.
Selection: ANNIE POWER 3/1 FESTIVAL BANKER
Preview evening notes:
Tony says Nicholls' aim is to get Annie Power beaten and he will try everything to make it a proper staying test. He also says he hasn't seen Nicholls quite as bullish about anything in a while. Celestial Halo nominated as the likely pacemaker, Salubrious nominated as an underrated dark horse. PFN thinks Big Bucks is back to his best and will be 100% ready on the day. Lydia points out that Annie Power can be a bit buzzy and will need to settle early on. When asked which horse he would ride, Tinkler replies 'Definitely Annie Power.' However, he then goes on to stay Big Bucks is the proven stayer, Annie Power has to show she can get the 3m in the hardest race of her life. Dan Skelton sums up race very well. Says the two that beat BB last time would never have dreamed to have got so close, let alone pass him, even considering he needed the run. Says how much do you forgive him for last run and how much will he come on for it. Lydia suggests he might go backward and run a shocker, Dan dismisses that quite readily. Rory says Big Bucks is ready and the Nicholls camp will offer no excuses if he is beaten. All agree it is a two horse race, though as said, Salubrious likely to outrun his price as well.
Triumph Hurdle
The forth and final day of the festival opens with the Triumph Hurdle. This race is for four year old juveniles and is run over a distance of two miles and one furlong. The race was won last year in breathtaking fashion by my Champion Hurdle fancy Our Conor. I urge you to watch last year's demolition again, stunning performance. This year looks a very tricky puzzle with countless chances.
Stats:
No filly won since 2000. Only one favourite obliged since 2000. Eight of last ten winners won last time out. Last nine winners posted an RPR of 132 or more in one or both of their last two runs. Eight of last ten winners had won a hurdles race by at least 7 lengths. Winner came from first four in the betting in eight of last nine runnings. Nine of last ten winners had run on the flat.
I have no strong fancy in this race. I made two ante-post bets but doubtful whether either will run now after disappointing recently. I think Alcala is very highly regarded and very much next season's horse but he had a Triumph entry and was worth an ew tickle at 33/1 I thought. Considering the long break I thought he ran an encouraging race last time behind Activial. I am sure Nicholls said he would put the grey away now till next season but you never know. Another I backed who has been very disappointing is Chocola. This horse is highly regarded but for some reason things are not clicking on the course for him. A doubtful runner now and 50/1 probably the price he ought to be even if he does run. Stranger things have happened though. If neither of these run then I probably won't back anything else, too competitive and nothing I strongly fancy. Just to be clear, I would not advise backing either of these horses now, but just putting up my two AP fancies.
Preview evening notes:
Rory thinks Activial could be pulled from the race if the ground dries out too much. Le Rocher was never seen as a Triumph horse before the trial apparently. He is a stayer in the making and may need quicker ground says Lydia. Tinkler says neither Henderson horse will get the ground they need, he likes Le Rocher. The top three in the market never won on the flat, nine of last ten winners of race had done so. Tony and Rory opt for Le Rocher, Dan Skelton fancies Broughton to place and Lydia throws in Gitane Du Berlais. 'If handles ground, and big if, then could be a huge price.' Points out that she will get the weight allowance, that said no filly won since 2000.
Gold Cup
The feature race of the four day festival is held on the final day. The gruelling 26 furlong trip brings together the best staying chasers in the world to fight it out up that hill for a place in the history books. Last year's race was as eventful as ever. My main Cheltenham fancy, Silviniaco Conti crashed out when travelling oh so well. Would he have won? No one is to know, either way. Bob's Worth looked beat but the little horse's massive heart and determination saw him home and he won quite comfortably in the end. This year he is back to defend his crown, and will likely start a shortish priced favourite. Gallant Long Run was back in third and this year goes to the National, his Gold Cup days are over. Last year's runner up, Sir Des Champs who was my AP fancy this year, unfortunately ruled out through injury some time ago.
Stats:
Last fourteen winners had previously won a Grade 1. Ten of last thirteen either won or finished second at the festival before. Only one 6yo has won in the last 40 years. Only one of the last twenty winners aged ten or older. Twelve of the last thirteen winners rated 166 or higher. Last thirteen winners have been from the top three in the betting.
Not a massive stats man myself but the Gold Cup winner is nearly always prominent in the market. The favourite, Bob's Worth is rightly the price he is. Unbeaten at Cheltenham, and a brave performance in this race last year in a stronger renewal, he is very much the one to beat for me. Silviniaco Conti will have a great chance if getting round and could pose a big threat, many will fancy him, but after last year and considering the shortish price I won't be backing him this time. The worrying thing for backers here is that he has had only two runs at the course, once falling and the other coming third behind Menorah and Cue Card over three years ago. However, he was impressive when winning the King George last time and should run a big race. Last Instalment will be under scrutiny in light of the recent Fenton case. For me, he would be an uncomfortable winner. The sport has already got a bad reputation, and rightly so in some cases, and a horse that could have possibly been subject to steroid use winning one of the most prestigious races of the entire season would leave me feeling uneasy. Of course this isn't fair on the horse, but that is the nature of the beast. However, his Hennessey win was very impressive and is well fancied for this, despite the fact he has never been seen at Cheltenham before though the drying ground is a big worry.
If one was to pop up at a huge price, it may be the rejuvenated and experienced Giant Bolster, or maybe Harry Topper if conditions got very testing which at this stage looks very doubtful. For me I will likely only be watching this year. I think the race lacks the usual magic and spark. Cue Card missing the race is a shame, but I am very sceptical as to whether he would have been good enough to win a Gold Cup, even a watery one like this. (Unfair?) No credit shall be taken away from the winner however, who in my mind is likely to be Bob's Worth once more. If things get very heavy, Harry Topper may have some of my cash each way and if old Giant Bolster looks especially up for it come post time, he may have a few quid from me on the place market.
Preview evening notes:
General consensus that Bob's Worth will retain his Gold Cup crown. Triolo D'alene and Captain Chris put up as each way alternatives. Race seen as a matchup between the top two in the market though most agree their prices should be more closely matched. Point made that this years race looks weaker than the one he won last year. Last Instalment needs softer ground and talk that he could be pulled.
Other preview evening notes:
Rory says Sue Smith is very sweet on the chances of her horse Blakemount in the Albert Bartlett. Lydia has backed King's Palace but Briar Hill was the one they all liked. Concern about absence for KP as well as Tom Scu going off too fast and being overly aggressive. Captain Cutter confirmed for race by Tinkler, the panel agree it is a two horse race and four of the panel favoured Briar Hill over the main market rival with Rory putting him up as his bet of the festival.
Quevega did a blistering piece of work last week and is supposedly as good as ever. Glen's Melody confirmed retired to stud at the end of the season. Swing Bowler only 50/50 for the race with Pipe apparently siding with another race for her. Rory fancies L'Unique as the classiest horse without the favourite and looks big at 25/1. Lydia says one day age will catch up with her and she won't win, and says the French horse the one likely to capitalise if so. Cockney Sparrow written off as not good enough. Andrew agrees with Rory and says Quevega will win and L'Unique will place if good ground. All the panel were conclusive in that they would not lay Quevega.
Lydia really fancies Indian Castle in the Kim Muir and Rory says Donald McCain nominated him as his NAP of the meeting. Rory also shared that he had been told to back Forced Family Fun by John Quinn's son for whichever race he gets into at the festival. Pendra, Mr Mole and Indian Castle all been popular in the markets says Rory. Tony shares with us that PFN thought the handicapper had made a mistake rising Vibrato Valtat by only 1lb for his win. He thought it was an 11lb rise and it was a misprint. He was shocked when the 1lb rise was confirmed as he can't remember one of his horses only going up 1lb for a win. Tony says could be extremely well handicapped. Andrew nominates Dawalan as being well handicapped and could sport headgear for the first time and Ericht has a massive chance if the ground keeps drying out. Tony nominates Present View (NHC) Next Sensation (GA) Tap Night (Byrne) and Goodwood Mirage (FW) as his four handicap good things. Lydia likes Sure Reef as she thinks he is well handicapped and supposedly did a lightning piece of work this week. Dan Skelton says he has been told 'Fingal Bay will win' and adds further meat to the bones about Wishfull Thinking's Champion Chase chances. Discussing Cup Final, Tinkler says he is very nice this year, but next year he will be great. One to stick in the tracker.
After listening to the preview I have selected six horses to take away from it at big prices, you will find them below. Was a great evening and will certainly be going to more of them next year, hope you found what they said as interesting as I did, and hopefully they have given us one or two more winners!
Other bets
One other bet I have already made but not talked about is VENDOR in the Coral Cup at a healthy ew price of 20/1. The French-bred gelding was last seen running a good race in the Grade 3 Betfair Hurdle. Being a hold up horse, he does need a decent pace and things to drop his way which they did in the race before when he won going away at Newbury. He beat a very decent field then, including Saphir Du Rheu who is now rated 158. He also beat a smart horse called Shotavodka as well as some other decent yardsticks. He won't mind the big field either as the grey enjoys running through other horses. The horse ran here at Cheltenham before as well, finishing a good third on only his second start in the UK. The step back up in trip will suit Vendor and while this race is super competitive, I think he can run a very big race for the Alan King yard who won this race last year with Medinas at an even bigger price.
NED BUNTLINE is one I have been made aware of in the final race of the festival. While short enough for a race of this nature at 14/1, he will be bidding to give JP McManus his third success in a row with three different trainers. While having no course form, he has never been out the first three. Always have to be wary of Nicky Henderson runners in this race but the bigger danger could come from the promising Next Sensation, one to keep on side for sure. However Ned is carrying a nice weight and looks well handicapped and should keep his record of never finishing out the places intact.
Aside from the races mentioned, I have noted a few horses below to lookout for. They will likely start at big prices and if everything looks right pre-race I will be having some ew money on them. Just small fancies but definitely horses to look out for for various different reasons. Also below is a summary of my Ante-Post bets as well as a few multiples I have had. Obviously I understand some of the prices mentioned have long gone now but plenty of value still to be had, this is just a blog of my AP bets for the festival :-)
Ante-Post Fancies:
Supreme Novices Hurdle: UN ACE 100/1 ew - Unplaced
Arkle Chase: TRIFOLIUM 6/1 - PLACED
Champion Hurdle: OUR CONOR 9/2 - FELL (Fatally injured :-( )
Neptune: RED SHERLOCK 6/1 - Unplaced
Neptune: ROYAL BOY 14/1 ew NR
RSA: DON COSSACK 16/1 ew FELL
RSA: ANNACOTTY 20/1 ew - Unplaced
Coral Cup: VENDOR 20/1 ew - Unplaced
Champion Chase: MODULE 20/1 ew PLACED
World Hurdle: ANNIE POWER 3/1 PLACED
Grand Annual: NED BUNTLINE 14/1 ew
Horses to look out for in handicaps and races not mentioned
THE LIQUIDATOR - Supreme Novices 25/1 - Unplaced
ALAIVAN - County Hurdle - 14/1
MANY CLOUDS - RSA 16/1 FELL
COYABA - Champion Bumper 66/1 - Unplaced
STACK THE DECK - Champion Bumper 50/1 - PU (Fatally injured :-( )
CLONARD LAD - Pertemps 20/1 NR
PRESENT VIEW - Novices Handicap 14/1 WINNER
GREEN FLAG - Festival Handicap 25/1 PLACED
HADRIANS APPROACH - Festival Handicap 12/1 - Unplaced
STAR NEUVILLE - Cross Country - 8/1 - Unplaced
Every jumps season revolves around Cheltenham, and from day one we are looking for horses with realistic prospects of winning at Prestbury Park come March. Some horses won't make it, some will, others will end up being a disappointment, a few will impress but then there's that one that gives you that feeling. That feeling that this horse could be anything; when you think you have seen something special. Immediately he or she goes into the notebook for Cheltenham and you have a browse of the ante-post markets in the likely race (if that is your thing) and see a price three times what you expected. You place your bet and now you wait the long wait every AP punter has to endure every year.
I have seen a few performances that have given me this feeling in my gut this year. While not a big ante-post player myself, I understand why people love it. It takes patience (which I have a frustrating lack of) but you have to be prepared to be very disappointed and frustrated. I have had one or two AP plays this season myself, but nothing major.
Will first go through my confident bets in detail, then post some others I fancy, then throw in a few dark horses to keep an eye out for throughout the four days too.
Let's get started.
Supreme Novices Hurdle
The Supreme will kick off the Festival with the famous loud cheer from the Cheltenham terraces. The race is always run at a breakneck gallop over a distance of just over 2m. Last year My Tent Or Yours who this year lines up in the Champion Hurdle was the well fancied favourite for JP McManus, Jonjo O'Neill and AP McCoy in those famous colours. Champagne Fever however was quietly fancied in Ireland and the money arrived by the bucket-load on the morning of the opening race. The grey gamely made all and despite MTOY looking all over the winner when cruising upsides before the last, the brave grey dug in and repelled the McCoy drive; the rest is history. This year he goes for the Arkle, the very next race on the card.
This years Supreme looks as exciting as ever, with some really nice prospects lining up. Irving will be many peoples' idea of the winner as he is unbeaten for Paul Nicholls over hurdles and looks a very smart horse. He is flat bred and has bags of speed - a fascinating contender, especially when you consider he is said to need better ground which he looks likely to get here. That said he hasn't really faced a testing track like Cheltenham just yet. Vautour is the main market rival and was impressive when merely being pushed out to beat odds on shot The Tullow Tank who now doesn't run here due to the Fenton scandal that has come to light. TTT could be a very smart horse so Vautour has to be taken seriously, though at as short as 5/2 would certainly not be for me. Josses Hill is another with good claims and Alan King's smart flat recruit, First Mohican at 33/1 could outrun those odds. The apparent WPM second string also is one to keep an eye on, money has started to arrive for Wicklow Brave and one to keep very much on side. The forgotten horse, however could be The Liquidator, who can put a poor run behind him and might run a big race at 25/1. He has already shown a liking for Cheltenham and can be excused his last run. Not one to rule out, despite the fact his trainer faces a race against time to have him ready.
Stats:
Worth pointing out no favourite or joint favourite has won this race since 2004. Six of the last nine winners have been priced at double figure odds. Irish entrants have a strong record in this race and most winners have shown good form in large fields while being lightly raced. Fourteen of the last sixteen winners won their last race. Eleven of the last thirteen winners had raced at least once in the last 45 days.
I have to say, the way Irving quickened lto to put the race to bed after making a hash of the last really stayed with me - was very impressive and has a great chance but is probably too short now for me, especially as there are one or two niggling doubts. The Liquidator interests me e/w but not as much as my selection for this race, 100/1 shot Un Ace. The way this highly regarded horse travelled on debut for Kim Bailey was very notable and he always looked the winner. That was until a bad mistake 3 out where he pecked on landing and lost all momentum. However, he quickly picked up the bridle and came clear with ease after the last in taking fashion. The strong pace here will suit this horse down to the ground and he could be making up ground late on as they tire ahead. Yes he didn't beat much and he can't afford to make mistakes in this race but if he lines up he could throw a spanner in the works at huge odds as he is a horse with bags of potential.
Selection: UN ACE 100/1 ew
Preview evening notes:
Vaniteux was very well fancied by the panel and Henderson stable jockey Andrew Tinkler opted for Vaniteux as opposed to stablemate Josses Hill. They noted however that the race hasn't always been the intended target, yet money has started to arrive in the past few days or so and he is fancied at home. Most of the panel agreed that Vaniteux will start a single figure price, with suggestions of 6/1-7/1 SP. It was confirmed that Barry Geraghty is likely to ride the horse and Andrew Tinkler made the horse his e/w bet of the festival. For what it's worth Rory nominated Wilde Blue Yonder as his e/w fancy of the race.
Arkle
The Arkle, like the Supreme, is run at a furious pace with a huge emphasis on jumping technique. Market leaders traditionally perform well in this race and always worth keeping an eye on both Alan King and Nicky Henderson horses as both trainers have a good record in this race. Last year the grey Simonsig held off a mighty run from Mouse Morris's Baily Green who looked the winner up the run in when closing him down until the odds on grey asserted close home under Geraghty to win in workmanlike fashion.
Another grey, and current favourite Champagne Fever will be fancied by many to take this year's crown. The horse loves Cheltenham, and as already mentioned is very game and brave but I think there is a big question mark over his jumping, as shown last time when being well beaten by both Trifolium and Defy Logic. The aforementioned Trifolium is an exciting contender for me here. He jumps well, has strong form and there is definitely more to come. He likes Cheltenham too, as shown when 3rd in the Supreme in 2012, just a neck behind the ill fated Darlan and a length or two behind the Donald McCain trained winner. 6/1 a great price I think. Rock On Ruby is one I fancied for a long time and have backed ante-post at a fair price. That said this field looks competitive enoug and he can't afford to make novicey errors though will get his ground. Another worth a mention is Valdez. I love this horse and his big white face and he looks a fair price at 10/1. Alan King who, as mentioned, has a good record in this, is putting enormous faith in him as Kingy's other 2m chasing star Balder Succes will miss Cheltenham. BS put in a rousing jumping display and won with a good bit in hand last time and is very much a horse to follow.
Stats:
Eight of the last ten winners came from the first three in the market. Eight of the last ten winners won their last race. Only two of the last ten favourites have won the race. Nine of the last ten winners aged between 5 and 7. The last eight winners were either first or second in their last three races.
Not one that really stands out for me at a bigger price here and I have already backed Rock On Ruby AP but Trifolium is my selection for Arkle glory. 6/1 looks a very fair price all things considered and I think this horse is still improving. He jumps well, has course form and surely will put up a bold bid. Valdez would be a danger too and I may have a little multi-tricast on the morning on the three mentioned. It's Cheltenham after all! ;-)
Selection: TRIFOLIUM 6/1
Preview evening notes:
Jumping doubts about Champagne Fever but Tinkler says horse deserves to be favourite. Trifolium touted as the wise man's bet of the race. Tony Calvin says Rock on Ruby was never seen as a chaser by Paul Nicholls, the horse has had his breathing issues and at the age of 9, is too short at current price. Ted Veale was Dan Skelton's ew fancy in the race, but each panellist put up a different horse for the race, showing the competitive nature of this year's renewal.
Champion Hurdle
Being dubbed the race of the meeting and for good reason. It looks an absolute belter of a race. The line up is mouthwatering. Reigning champ Hurricane Fly, Twiston Davies stable star The New One, the strong travelling My Tent Or Yours, Our Conor who demolished his rivals in the Triumph last year, the forgotten horse Jezki, as well as Melodic Rendezvous amongst others. What. A. Line-up. Would have been even better with Annie Power but she goes for the World Hurdle (more on that later!)
Last year loyal Hurricane Fly backers had their hearts in their mouths at one stage but the wonder horse who has an astonishing amount of Grade One's to his name showed his bravery running out a comfortable enough winner in the end from Rock on Ruby who made a brave effort from the front. His big heart shone that day and despite people rubbishing the Fly's Grade One victories ("hardly a grade one, only beaten three average handicappers blah blah blah") he has the heart of a lion and is a fantastic beast. By the way if he is beaten this year and the haters come out again, just remind them of the dark day last year at the festival when they layed the Fly with their entire Chelt fund, that will shut them up :-)
This year he lines up again, and is in flying form as ever, twice beating the re-opposing Our Conor and Jezki. As for My Tent Or Yours, you can argue all day and give me all the reasons under the sun why he will go well but let me tell you this. He will not win, he is not good enough, end of. While I admire the horse, I just can't see he has the class to win a Champion Hurdle, especially with a stellar line up like this against him. Nope, not for me at all. I am a huge fan of The New One too and he could come second or third but not my idea of the winner either. Despite blundering the last and throwing the race, he was disappointing last time as I thought he would have the class to recover and get back up. However, he will likely get a good gallop here which will suit down to the ground and should run a big race. Jezki has enough questions to answer and despite the enticing price, hard to think he is good enough though there are one or two bits of money around for him with the MTOY injury scare coming to light. Interesting too that Captain Cee Bee has been supplemented for the race.
Stats:
Only four winners over the age of eight since 1951. 25 of last 30 won their last race. 18 of last 24 had won at Cheltenham before. Irish won 9 of last 15. Two of last seven favourites won. Only one five year old won in 29 years.
The one I strongly fancy for this, despite his young age is Our Conor. While admittedly, the price is skinny in the context of this race, I was really taken with his last run behind the Fly. He travelled so so well throughout the race and took over just after the last. However the Fly dug deep and his big heart won him the day getting back up close home but OC will have again come on for that and remember nothing has ever beaten the Fly at Leopardstown. OC also loves Cheltenham. Undoubtedly the most impressive performance of the 2013 festival was Our Conor's humiliation of his rivals, bounding away on the bridle loving every second of it to win by 15 odd lengths. A performance that truly took the breath away. You can ignore his reappearance run this season because he 'looked like a hairy goat' and was badly in need of the run. Also, he is a superb jumper of hurdles, which you have to be to win a Champion Hurdle. Dessie Hughes will have him 100% race fit this time and I think he will run a mighty race; the young kid on the block (remember he is only a 5yo - hugely exciting animal!) can teach his more experienced rivals a lesson, at the main expense of the grand old boy, Hurricane Fly. Will be a cracking race either way and I can't wait.
Selection: OUR CONOR 9/2
Festival Preview Notes:
Most of the panel seemed to be on the MTOY/TNO formline but all admit that race is an appalling betting proposition. General consesus is that Hurricane Fly is the one they all have to beat. Tony Calvin makes very good point about Our Conor. Horse was massively weak in market in last race, available at 7/1-8/1 on exchanges and massively outran his market expectations. Suggests that he will improve and Dessie will have him 100% ready on the day, his tentative selection for the race. Tinkler sings MTOY praises, little made of injury scare and is his idea of the winner.
Neptune
The New One was victorious in this race last year, staying on well in the final furlong to win in cosy fashion after taking up the running just before the last. Mullins' Pont Alexandre was many people's idea of banker of the whole four day meeting but ultimately disappointed back in third place at short odds.
Faugheen is the place to start in this. The gelding is unbeaten for Mullins, winning four races from four attempts, all in quite taking fashion. Looks a smart horse indeed though lacks substantial high class form for me, especially at the unappealing price of 11/4 at time of writing. Needs to show he can mix it in top class races and he may well do, but for me is worth finding something with a meatier price, especially as there are one or two concerns over his jumping. Red Sherlock may just be the answer here. What still looks a generous 6/1, a flawless six from six, the chestnut looks well worth a punt. Has course form too, last time winning the trial by 3L from the well touted Rathvinden. That is solid form. The one I see as a viable ew player is Royal Boy who is priced at 14/1 at the time of writing. Just under a length behind Melodic Rendezvous on debut here at Chelt, this horse has since gone on to win the Tolworth Hurdle, beating his better fancied stablemate Josses Hill in the process. His stamina told that day and going back up in trip will be no problem, and does look good value here at the odds.
Stats:
Only two of the last twenty-four winners weren't aged five or six. Nine of the last ten winners finished first or second last time out. Nine out of the last ten winners had won over at least 2m4f over hurdles. Eight out of the last ten have finished first or second in all completed hurdle races.
Have backed two for this myself as mentioned. Firstly David Pipe's unbeaten Red Sherlock. Course form is so important at Cheltenham and he also has more experience in better races than the market leader. Still think the price is generous, you can even profit backing ew at this stage should he only manage a place. Royal Boy has also taken some of my cash e/w. That Tolworth hurdle form over a trip on the sharp side looks strong, stepping back up will suit this horse and has to be a big each way player at the very least. 14/1 looks big and not sure how long that will last as the money is starting to arrive.
Selection: RED SHERLOCK 6/1 and ROYAL BOY 14/1 ew
Preview evening notes:
Andrew Tinkler seemed very optimistic about Royal Boy's chances and suggested that the now deflated price of 7/1 still represents good ew value. Rory has backed Faugheen and Tony Calvin has had his biggest bet in the race in the shape of Un Temps Pour Tout and makes him his e/w bet of the festival. Red Sherlock got a good mention and Lydia really likes Sure Reef for the Coral Cup but he takes his place here instead.
RSA
The competitors who line up in this are all coming to the end of their first season over fences and this race can be their stepping stone to great things as shown by Denman in 2007. The race is over 3m and is one of the more testing races of the festival. Last year Lord Windermere took advantage of a tumbling fall at the death from Boston Bob, who looked to have the race at his mercy. LW held off the late challenge of Lyreen Legend to win by just over a length. A fortunate winner, and the horse hasn't done much since, being well beaten in three graded starts since his RSA triumph.
This year looks a particularly tricky renewal with no obvious winner jumping out of the card. However, one horse I have been waiting for all season is Gordon Elliot's tank of a horse, Don Cossack. The German bred seven year old is an absolute beast, if you are at Cheltenham go and see this horse in the paddock, has a massive presence about him. Ballycasey will start likely favourite but in a race of this competitive nature he really is too short. Annacotty deserves a special mention, one we have followed all year and Corrin Wood certainly looks a player while Many Clouds for me is a bit of a dark horse.
Stats:
The last thirteen winners all ran at least three times over fences. Only two six year olds have won the RSA since 1978. The last three favourites to have won were rated at least 134 over hurdles. The Irish have only won four RSA's since 1985 but those four have all been in the last ten years Seven year olds have won eight of the last ten renewals, including the last seven in a row. 24 of the last 25 winners had either won or been second on their last run.
As I say, Don Cossack is the one I have been waiting for. Going up to 3m for the first time is sure to suit and he should run a big race, at a price too, still 16/1 widely available. Corrin Wood interests me but a tad short in context now for me to really be interested. That said, another horse I simply have to back is Annacotty. The horse improved 22lbs in just three months, as well as giving trainer, jockey and owner their first Grade 1 success when dotting up in the Feltham winning very impressively, especially considering he was the lowest rated horse in the field. That is very strong form, and going back up to 3m will suit this front runner down to the ground. There could even be more to come as he is only a 6yo and he has experience at Cheltenham, a valuable asset which some competitors don't possess, most notably the current favourite. Despite having a key stat against him (age), he looks a likely player. Rule Annacotty out at your peril.
Selection: DON COSSACK 16/1 ew and ANNACOTTY 20/1 ew
Preview evening notes:
Rory says Corrin Wood is being well backed but needs softer ground. Smad Place is Stan James biggest loser in the book. Rory tips up Carlingford Lough ew. Lydia thinks Le Bec is still a massive price and there were doubts expressed about Sam Winner's right trip - connections not sure whether he wants 3m or 4m. Stat mentioned that the last 50 winners had run in the same calendar year. This rules out Morning Assembly. Smad place nominated as the classiest horse in the race, however his confidence and attitude questioned. Dan Skelton puts in a very good word for Many Clouds at a price and everyone against Ballycasey - big deal made of schooling fall.
Champion Chase
Was disappointed like all true racing fans but also very surprised when Nicky Henderson announced that the wonderful Sprinter Sacre was to miss this year's festival. Obviously the heart issue was a lot more serious that some people thought and the right decision has been made for the safety and well being of the horse. Hope to see him back on the track soon and back to his glorious best here again next year. Sprinter Sacre's absence now opens this year's race right up.
Stats:
Biggest price winner since 2000 was 16/1. Only three double figure price winners in last thirteen years. Eleven of the last fourteen winners were 5/1 or less. 21 of the last 28 winners had been previously placed at the Festival. Only five favourites won in last sixteen years.
While Sire De Grugy is a very good horse, he is not my idea of a Champion Chase winner. He much prefers running the other way and his runs here have been disappointing, no not for me, especially at 7/4. Benefficient is one of great interest. Last year's Jewson winner bounced right back to form last time and is a horse with class. He stays 2m very well too. A more interesting contender at the price for me, however is Module. Backed him last time when winning gamely from the Arkle contender, Dodging Bullets. He was headed but his stamina told, and he got back up close home. Staying the 2m well is very important at Chelt. He ran a very good race here last year too, not far behind the previously mentioned Benefficient. Everything happened a bit quickly for him and when the penny finally dropped it was too late. However, at 16/1 he looks well worth an ew play to me if ridden a bit handier and with another year's experience under the belt.
Selection: MODULE 16/1 ew
Preview evening notes:
Rory says Sire De Grugy the one to back by default. Baily Green being well backed and Alderwood has been ruled out for the entire festival. Kid Cassidy likely to place due to the likely way he will be ridden says Lydia. Dan Skelton really fancies Wishfull Thinking and nominates him as his e/w bet of the festival. Lydia and Andrew both opt for Kid Cassidy as likely to be placed, Special Tiara takes Tony's fancy. Rory thinks Sizing Europe is overpriced.
Ryanair
With last year's victor Cue Card now a non runner for the entire meet due to a muscle injury, this race is wide open. He probably would have gone to the Gold Cup anyway but again, while disappointing, the right decision has been made. There could still be some serious horses taking part, the grey Al Ferof, First Lieutenant for Mouse Morris who was 2nd last year and another grey, Dynaste amongst others.
Stats:
Only one of the nine winners priced over 6/1. Only two favourites have won the race. Seven of the nine winners aged eight or over. All winners bar one had previously won at the course.
Dynaste is a horse I like and have backed this season but I missed the bigger price and I have been disappointed by his recent runs and now have decided to jump ship. First Lieutenant is a serious horse and looks a real danger. Benefficient could line up here instead of the champion chase but with SS out will surely opt for the 2m event. Tried to find some value in the race and at first glance I was going to leave it, but after speaking to someone on Twitter I was convinced he was on to something. This horse ran in the Lexus, travelling strongly until tiring up the run in, finishing not far behind some classy horses. He was said by connections to have badly needed the run. He was then bang there in the Hennessey next time until late in the day when tiring again against some proper horses once more as you would expect in such a race. However, the drop back in trip for Lyreen Legend looks a great move and he ran a cracker last year in the RSA. Yes, this horse has really tickled my fancy and can defy the stats and run a massive race at what could turn out to be a massive price at 20/1. << Since writing this Dessie has said that he will likely target the Gold Cup which is very annoying as the Ryanair is there for the taking and Lyreen Legend doesn't stay well enough to win the GC!
Preview evening notes:
All the panel agree that the two greys will fight this out. Tony thinks Al Ferof would have won the Champion Chase if competing but thinks Dynaste is the one to beat at the longer trip. Rory can't see past the top three (including Benefficient) who Lydia says will win this race if lining up. Tinkler thinks Dynaste is worth forgiving his last run and nominates him as likely winner then it is revealed that Dynaste has had a wind op since his last race. Pipe yard keeping it quiet though.
World Hurdle
The World Hurdle is the feature race on day three of the festival. Last year, Solwhit took the glory in the absence of Big Bucks who won it the four years prior. Oscar Whisky was the 9/4 favourite but never really looked happy and ended up not even completing, being pulled up before jumping the last. This year, Big Buck's is back, aiming to win his fifth World Hurdle. Whatever happens here, I am of the opinion that this will be the old fella's last race, though that is by no means a fact. Annie Power is a mouth watering contender and this is being billed as a straight match up. However, the unexposed and hugely exciting More Of That throws a spanner in the works.
Stats:
No 5yo ever won. French bred horses won eight of last twelve runnings. Solwhit was the first Irish trained winner for eighteen years.Only one front runner has held on for a place since 1996. Seventeen of the last twenty winners had run at the previous year's festival. Seven of the last ten runnings have seen the top five in the betting occupy the top three finishing places. Nine of the last ten winners won the race before. No double figure priced winner this century.
Two words for me here. Annie. Power. My biggest fancy of the festival is she. The wonder mare is still yet to be troubled by any horse she has faced, and this won't change in the World Hurdle. I thought she would contest the Champion Hurdle originally (which would have made the race even more special) but that Willie Mullins is a shrewd and wise old man. Coming over to England for a 2m prep race, yeah right was he planning on the Champion Hurdle ;-) All part of the fun! Back to Annie. A perfect 10/10, the step up to 3m will enable her to show even more. The further she goes the better she will be. She recorded her best RPR when running over the greatest distance she has contested; 20f at Cheltenham on heavy ground, making Zarkandar look like the stable cat in the process. Even more impressive perhaps was her Fairyhouse victory last March, again over 20f. She really could be anything, she could be something very very special indeed and I think this is the race that finally makes people say 'whoa, this horse is something else.' She could be scary good. More Of That is exciting, but will need to be something out of this world if he can take this on only his forth start. After this race I think Big Bucks will be seen as a great of the past and Annie Power will be seen as a world beater of the future. Banker.
Selection: ANNIE POWER 3/1 FESTIVAL BANKER
Preview evening notes:
Tony says Nicholls' aim is to get Annie Power beaten and he will try everything to make it a proper staying test. He also says he hasn't seen Nicholls quite as bullish about anything in a while. Celestial Halo nominated as the likely pacemaker, Salubrious nominated as an underrated dark horse. PFN thinks Big Bucks is back to his best and will be 100% ready on the day. Lydia points out that Annie Power can be a bit buzzy and will need to settle early on. When asked which horse he would ride, Tinkler replies 'Definitely Annie Power.' However, he then goes on to stay Big Bucks is the proven stayer, Annie Power has to show she can get the 3m in the hardest race of her life. Dan Skelton sums up race very well. Says the two that beat BB last time would never have dreamed to have got so close, let alone pass him, even considering he needed the run. Says how much do you forgive him for last run and how much will he come on for it. Lydia suggests he might go backward and run a shocker, Dan dismisses that quite readily. Rory says Big Bucks is ready and the Nicholls camp will offer no excuses if he is beaten. All agree it is a two horse race, though as said, Salubrious likely to outrun his price as well.
Triumph Hurdle
The forth and final day of the festival opens with the Triumph Hurdle. This race is for four year old juveniles and is run over a distance of two miles and one furlong. The race was won last year in breathtaking fashion by my Champion Hurdle fancy Our Conor. I urge you to watch last year's demolition again, stunning performance. This year looks a very tricky puzzle with countless chances.
Stats:
No filly won since 2000. Only one favourite obliged since 2000. Eight of last ten winners won last time out. Last nine winners posted an RPR of 132 or more in one or both of their last two runs. Eight of last ten winners had won a hurdles race by at least 7 lengths. Winner came from first four in the betting in eight of last nine runnings. Nine of last ten winners had run on the flat.
I have no strong fancy in this race. I made two ante-post bets but doubtful whether either will run now after disappointing recently. I think Alcala is very highly regarded and very much next season's horse but he had a Triumph entry and was worth an ew tickle at 33/1 I thought. Considering the long break I thought he ran an encouraging race last time behind Activial. I am sure Nicholls said he would put the grey away now till next season but you never know. Another I backed who has been very disappointing is Chocola. This horse is highly regarded but for some reason things are not clicking on the course for him. A doubtful runner now and 50/1 probably the price he ought to be even if he does run. Stranger things have happened though. If neither of these run then I probably won't back anything else, too competitive and nothing I strongly fancy. Just to be clear, I would not advise backing either of these horses now, but just putting up my two AP fancies.
Preview evening notes:
Rory thinks Activial could be pulled from the race if the ground dries out too much. Le Rocher was never seen as a Triumph horse before the trial apparently. He is a stayer in the making and may need quicker ground says Lydia. Tinkler says neither Henderson horse will get the ground they need, he likes Le Rocher. The top three in the market never won on the flat, nine of last ten winners of race had done so. Tony and Rory opt for Le Rocher, Dan Skelton fancies Broughton to place and Lydia throws in Gitane Du Berlais. 'If handles ground, and big if, then could be a huge price.' Points out that she will get the weight allowance, that said no filly won since 2000.
Gold Cup
The feature race of the four day festival is held on the final day. The gruelling 26 furlong trip brings together the best staying chasers in the world to fight it out up that hill for a place in the history books. Last year's race was as eventful as ever. My main Cheltenham fancy, Silviniaco Conti crashed out when travelling oh so well. Would he have won? No one is to know, either way. Bob's Worth looked beat but the little horse's massive heart and determination saw him home and he won quite comfortably in the end. This year he is back to defend his crown, and will likely start a shortish priced favourite. Gallant Long Run was back in third and this year goes to the National, his Gold Cup days are over. Last year's runner up, Sir Des Champs who was my AP fancy this year, unfortunately ruled out through injury some time ago.
Stats:
Last fourteen winners had previously won a Grade 1. Ten of last thirteen either won or finished second at the festival before. Only one 6yo has won in the last 40 years. Only one of the last twenty winners aged ten or older. Twelve of the last thirteen winners rated 166 or higher. Last thirteen winners have been from the top three in the betting.
Not a massive stats man myself but the Gold Cup winner is nearly always prominent in the market. The favourite, Bob's Worth is rightly the price he is. Unbeaten at Cheltenham, and a brave performance in this race last year in a stronger renewal, he is very much the one to beat for me. Silviniaco Conti will have a great chance if getting round and could pose a big threat, many will fancy him, but after last year and considering the shortish price I won't be backing him this time. The worrying thing for backers here is that he has had only two runs at the course, once falling and the other coming third behind Menorah and Cue Card over three years ago. However, he was impressive when winning the King George last time and should run a big race. Last Instalment will be under scrutiny in light of the recent Fenton case. For me, he would be an uncomfortable winner. The sport has already got a bad reputation, and rightly so in some cases, and a horse that could have possibly been subject to steroid use winning one of the most prestigious races of the entire season would leave me feeling uneasy. Of course this isn't fair on the horse, but that is the nature of the beast. However, his Hennessey win was very impressive and is well fancied for this, despite the fact he has never been seen at Cheltenham before though the drying ground is a big worry.
If one was to pop up at a huge price, it may be the rejuvenated and experienced Giant Bolster, or maybe Harry Topper if conditions got very testing which at this stage looks very doubtful. For me I will likely only be watching this year. I think the race lacks the usual magic and spark. Cue Card missing the race is a shame, but I am very sceptical as to whether he would have been good enough to win a Gold Cup, even a watery one like this. (Unfair?) No credit shall be taken away from the winner however, who in my mind is likely to be Bob's Worth once more. If things get very heavy, Harry Topper may have some of my cash each way and if old Giant Bolster looks especially up for it come post time, he may have a few quid from me on the place market.
Preview evening notes:
General consensus that Bob's Worth will retain his Gold Cup crown. Triolo D'alene and Captain Chris put up as each way alternatives. Race seen as a matchup between the top two in the market though most agree their prices should be more closely matched. Point made that this years race looks weaker than the one he won last year. Last Instalment needs softer ground and talk that he could be pulled.
Other preview evening notes:
Rory says Sue Smith is very sweet on the chances of her horse Blakemount in the Albert Bartlett. Lydia has backed King's Palace but Briar Hill was the one they all liked. Concern about absence for KP as well as Tom Scu going off too fast and being overly aggressive. Captain Cutter confirmed for race by Tinkler, the panel agree it is a two horse race and four of the panel favoured Briar Hill over the main market rival with Rory putting him up as his bet of the festival.
Quevega did a blistering piece of work last week and is supposedly as good as ever. Glen's Melody confirmed retired to stud at the end of the season. Swing Bowler only 50/50 for the race with Pipe apparently siding with another race for her. Rory fancies L'Unique as the classiest horse without the favourite and looks big at 25/1. Lydia says one day age will catch up with her and she won't win, and says the French horse the one likely to capitalise if so. Cockney Sparrow written off as not good enough. Andrew agrees with Rory and says Quevega will win and L'Unique will place if good ground. All the panel were conclusive in that they would not lay Quevega.
Lydia really fancies Indian Castle in the Kim Muir and Rory says Donald McCain nominated him as his NAP of the meeting. Rory also shared that he had been told to back Forced Family Fun by John Quinn's son for whichever race he gets into at the festival. Pendra, Mr Mole and Indian Castle all been popular in the markets says Rory. Tony shares with us that PFN thought the handicapper had made a mistake rising Vibrato Valtat by only 1lb for his win. He thought it was an 11lb rise and it was a misprint. He was shocked when the 1lb rise was confirmed as he can't remember one of his horses only going up 1lb for a win. Tony says could be extremely well handicapped. Andrew nominates Dawalan as being well handicapped and could sport headgear for the first time and Ericht has a massive chance if the ground keeps drying out. Tony nominates Present View (NHC) Next Sensation (GA) Tap Night (Byrne) and Goodwood Mirage (FW) as his four handicap good things. Lydia likes Sure Reef as she thinks he is well handicapped and supposedly did a lightning piece of work this week. Dan Skelton says he has been told 'Fingal Bay will win' and adds further meat to the bones about Wishfull Thinking's Champion Chase chances. Discussing Cup Final, Tinkler says he is very nice this year, but next year he will be great. One to stick in the tracker.
After listening to the preview I have selected six horses to take away from it at big prices, you will find them below. Was a great evening and will certainly be going to more of them next year, hope you found what they said as interesting as I did, and hopefully they have given us one or two more winners!
Other bets
One other bet I have already made but not talked about is VENDOR in the Coral Cup at a healthy ew price of 20/1. The French-bred gelding was last seen running a good race in the Grade 3 Betfair Hurdle. Being a hold up horse, he does need a decent pace and things to drop his way which they did in the race before when he won going away at Newbury. He beat a very decent field then, including Saphir Du Rheu who is now rated 158. He also beat a smart horse called Shotavodka as well as some other decent yardsticks. He won't mind the big field either as the grey enjoys running through other horses. The horse ran here at Cheltenham before as well, finishing a good third on only his second start in the UK. The step back up in trip will suit Vendor and while this race is super competitive, I think he can run a very big race for the Alan King yard who won this race last year with Medinas at an even bigger price.
NED BUNTLINE is one I have been made aware of in the final race of the festival. While short enough for a race of this nature at 14/1, he will be bidding to give JP McManus his third success in a row with three different trainers. While having no course form, he has never been out the first three. Always have to be wary of Nicky Henderson runners in this race but the bigger danger could come from the promising Next Sensation, one to keep on side for sure. However Ned is carrying a nice weight and looks well handicapped and should keep his record of never finishing out the places intact.
Aside from the races mentioned, I have noted a few horses below to lookout for. They will likely start at big prices and if everything looks right pre-race I will be having some ew money on them. Just small fancies but definitely horses to look out for for various different reasons. Also below is a summary of my Ante-Post bets as well as a few multiples I have had. Obviously I understand some of the prices mentioned have long gone now but plenty of value still to be had, this is just a blog of my AP bets for the festival :-)
Ante-Post Fancies:
Supreme Novices Hurdle: UN ACE 100/1 ew - Unplaced
Arkle Chase: TRIFOLIUM 6/1 - PLACED
Champion Hurdle: OUR CONOR 9/2 - FELL (Fatally injured :-( )
Neptune: RED SHERLOCK 6/1 - Unplaced
Neptune: ROYAL BOY 14/1 ew NR
RSA: DON COSSACK 16/1 ew FELL
RSA: ANNACOTTY 20/1 ew - Unplaced
Coral Cup: VENDOR 20/1 ew - Unplaced
Champion Chase: MODULE 20/1 ew PLACED
World Hurdle: ANNIE POWER 3/1 PLACED
Grand Annual: NED BUNTLINE 14/1 ew
Horses to look out for in handicaps and races not mentioned
THE LIQUIDATOR - Supreme Novices 25/1 - Unplaced
ALAIVAN - County Hurdle - 14/1
MANY CLOUDS - RSA 16/1 FELL
COYABA - Champion Bumper 66/1 - Unplaced
STACK THE DECK - Champion Bumper 50/1 - PU (Fatally injured :-( )
CLONARD LAD - Pertemps 20/1 NR
PRESENT VIEW - Novices Handicap 14/1 WINNER
GREEN FLAG - Festival Handicap 25/1 PLACED
HADRIANS APPROACH - Festival Handicap 12/1 - Unplaced
STAR NEUVILLE - Cross Country - 8/1 - Unplaced
SEA BEAT - Fred Winter 16/1 NR
TAP NIGHT - Byrne Plate 14/1
Horses to take away from preview evening:
VANITEUX - Supreme 12/1 PLACED
WISHFULL THINKING - Champion Chase 33/1 - Unplaced
GITANE DU BERLAIS - Triumph 16/1 NR
UN TEMPS POUR TOUT - Neptune 14/1 NR
FORCED FAMILY FUN - Fred Winter 25/1 NR
VIBRATO VALTAT - County Hurdle 20/1 NR
FINGAL BAY - Pertemps 7/1 WINNER
Multiples
Lucky 15 and doubles:
Annie Power, Trifolium, Our Conor, Red Sherlock. (add Briar Hill for a L31)
Also done various ew L15's and e/w multiples using horses mentioned priced 10/1+
Update:
Bookie buster ew Lucky 31:
Green Flag 16/1, Vendor 14/1, Ned Buntline 12/1, Tap Night 9/1, Stack The Deck 33/1
Returns £466,592 for 25p each way.
Other pointers:
Worth keeping an eye out for the horse that Danny Mullins chooses to ride in the Champion Bumper. Also in same race, the Dermot Weld runner will likely run a big race. Still has two entered, but if only one turns up that could be a big tip in itself.
Hope you enjoyed reading our Cheltenham preview, any comments and RT's of the link on Twitter are greatly appreciated. Good Luck if you like the sound of any of these and have a go yourself. Be lucky at the festival but more importantly make sure you enjoy the four days of best jumps action in the world. I can't wait for it all to start!
Regards,
THT
TAP NIGHT - Byrne Plate 14/1
Horses to take away from preview evening:
VANITEUX - Supreme 12/1 PLACED
WISHFULL THINKING - Champion Chase 33/1 - Unplaced
GITANE DU BERLAIS - Triumph 16/1 NR
UN TEMPS POUR TOUT - Neptune 14/1 NR
FORCED FAMILY FUN - Fred Winter 25/1 NR
VIBRATO VALTAT - County Hurdle 20/1 NR
FINGAL BAY - Pertemps 7/1 WINNER
Multiples
Lucky 15 and doubles:
Annie Power, Trifolium, Our Conor, Red Sherlock. (add Briar Hill for a L31)
Also done various ew L15's and e/w multiples using horses mentioned priced 10/1+
Update:
Bookie buster ew Lucky 31:
Green Flag 16/1, Vendor 14/1, Ned Buntline 12/1, Tap Night 9/1, Stack The Deck 33/1
Returns £466,592 for 25p each way.
Other pointers:
Worth keeping an eye out for the horse that Danny Mullins chooses to ride in the Champion Bumper. Also in same race, the Dermot Weld runner will likely run a big race. Still has two entered, but if only one turns up that could be a big tip in itself.
Hope you enjoyed reading our Cheltenham preview, any comments and RT's of the link on Twitter are greatly appreciated. Good Luck if you like the sound of any of these and have a go yourself. Be lucky at the festival but more importantly make sure you enjoy the four days of best jumps action in the world. I can't wait for it all to start!
Regards,
THT
Thursday, 12 December 2013
Friday 13th December
After making the laughably well handicapped Lastkingofscotland an each way maxbet last time, he flew home for 3rd from a bad draw and being badly hampered at the start for good place profit. This time LKOS will win, let me tell you.
Connor Dore has been handicapping his horses all summer and autumn as we all know by now. Hayley Turner returns to the saddle on the 7yo for the first time since the spring. A timely return too as unbelievably the horse has been dropped another 2lb by the handicapper since his last run. The old boy can now run off 57. He has never been rated this low, a career low mark for him on Friday.
Back over 7f at Wolves is where he wants to be. He has won twice over C and D and this was the course and distance where he took advantage of his tumbling mark under George Baker just under a year ago. He has a decent draw too, and the only danger could be the other Connor Dore runner but you get the impression this race is made for LKOS and I am not having him beat one little bit.
Come on Hayley, send him out front, and bloody well stay there.
Max Bet:
18.25 Lastkingofscotland @ 5/1
Good Luck all.
THT
Connor Dore has been handicapping his horses all summer and autumn as we all know by now. Hayley Turner returns to the saddle on the 7yo for the first time since the spring. A timely return too as unbelievably the horse has been dropped another 2lb by the handicapper since his last run. The old boy can now run off 57. He has never been rated this low, a career low mark for him on Friday.
Back over 7f at Wolves is where he wants to be. He has won twice over C and D and this was the course and distance where he took advantage of his tumbling mark under George Baker just under a year ago. He has a decent draw too, and the only danger could be the other Connor Dore runner but you get the impression this race is made for LKOS and I am not having him beat one little bit.
Come on Hayley, send him out front, and bloody well stay there.
Max Bet:
18.25 Lastkingofscotland @ 5/1
Good Luck all.
THT
Wednesday, 11 December 2013
Thursday 12th December
Plot, plotjob, non-trier, blatant cheating. We all have our own names we use. A horse tomorrow fits perfectly into this category. Jim Best is hardly a stranger to the notorious plot job. Remember Planetoid? Not quite the perfect example but let's look at the stats.
Rated 85 on the flat - a perfectly decent handicapper. Two flat wins from eight races, not bad at all! Then Jim Best took over training duties from David Lanigan.
Race 1 (maiden): 13/15 - Beaten 138 lengths at 9/1
Race 2 (maiden): 8/13 - Beaten 41 lengths at 33/1
Race 3 (novice): 9/11 - Beaten 200 lengths at 66/1
Race 4 (novice): Fell at 50/1
Race 5 (novice): 7/8 - Beaten 111 lengths at 66/1
Race 6 (novice): 10/11 - Beaten 68 lengths at 100/1.
At this stage, the future didn't look bright over obstacles for the son of Galileo. Oh, wait a minute, let's have a go in handicap company! Given a mark of 85 (incidentally the same as flat mark) Planetoid then made is handicap debut in 0-95 company.
Race 7: (handicap): 1/11 - Won by 5 lengths eased down at 5/6.
Hmm.
The less said about it the better. Or is it? Is it time we, the racing fan, actually did something about this blatant deception and playing of the 'system.' This got me thinking, should we as the punter, really be that concerned? Plenty got on the gamble that day. Don't remember the opening price but it was absolutely hammered in. Surely the concern is more for the bookmakers, not to mention the BHA who we all know by now are generally totally useless. The thing that gets me is how blatantly obvious trainers like Jim Best (though he is certainly not alone) manipulate the system. He knows he can do it, and the BHA won't do a thing. Yes the stewards will 'investigate' the horse's improved form and make their notes and scribble down their ramblings and promise to look into previous race footage. Has anyone ever heard of this resulting in anything? No, me neither. They don't seem to care, or perhaps they have better things to do, like sorting out the ridiculously low levels of prize money, oh wait a minute, they aren't doing that either. What are they doing?! Lol.
The fact Planetoid was given the same mark over jumps as on the flat was laughable anyway, but the BHA took their time and smelt a rat. Usually, like tomorrow's huge gamble, a horse is given a mark after three runs. Anyway, the handicapper was made to look like a total fool and the rest is history. Let's look at tomorrow's example, which is such a perfect example of the non-trier. (unless Ramona Chase really is diabolical over fences of course!)
Race 1 (novice): 12/12 - Beaten 81 lengths at 66/1.
Race 2 (maiden): 14/15 - Beaten 126 lengths at 100/1.
Race 3 (maiden): 12/15 - Beaten 90 lengths at 100/1.
Race 4 (handicap) ???
Ramona Chase was a perfectly decent flat horse and is bred to stay well. He predominantly raced between 10-12f and is related to hurdle winners. Actually quite nicely bred and cost plenty of money. He is rated around 84-85 on the flat. Judged on his first three efforts over hurdles, he has been given one of the most laughable marks I have ever seen in racing. 59. 59?! For a horse rated 25lbs or so better on the flat?! A 85 rated flat horse usually ends up being a 110-130 rated horse over jumps as a rough guide. It's worse than laughable that Ramona Chase is allowed to run off 59 tomorrow, miles out the handicap in 0-95 company. The top rated horse in this race was a career best 70 on the flat, and runs off 95 tomorrow carrying top weight. Ramona Chase 85 on flat, 59 tomorrow carrying bottom weight. Puts that right into perspective. Now can you see why it has been hammered into 7/2 from 16/1 in just a few hours? Buying money, and lots of it if you got on early.
The horse is so well in that I honestly believe it could lap them, it's ridiculous, it's worse than ridiculous. But again it raises the question should we care?
While it does absolutely nothing for the integrity of the sport, perhaps it might take such a ridiculous case such as this for the BHA to introduce some new rules and guidelines. One could be that the handicapper refuses to assess a horse if beaten more than, say 25 lengths? For a horse to establish a mark, it must finish within 25L of the winner 3 times. Sounds like a good idea to me. At least then you know they are trying, a bit anyway.
Oh by the way, Mattie Batchelor was investigated and then banned for 10 days for one of his non-trying rides on RC. Not his fault of course, we all know jockeys all do what they are told.
I wonder what Jim Best's representative will say tomorrow when he is inevitably called into the stewards room at approximately 14.50. He will certainly be earning his bacon anyway. One excuse they might use is the horse 'summered well and was refreshed from the break.' RC been off since the Spring, we will see anyway. The funniest one's are 'could offer no explanation to the horse's improved form.' Ha!
One thing that is becoming more fashionable is being a non-trier on handicap debut. This (theoretically of course) makes the handicapper feel he has not been had, and you never know might even drop another pound or two! This can also enable a bigger price for connections the next time when the horse subsequently destroys the dismal field on the bridle and they have lumped on at an early double figure price. That is always the danger with going in too heavily on these gambles. But let's be honest, we all know Ramona Chase isn't a 59 animal, except the handicapper of course! Lol. The horse has an entry in another four days time, which suggest a quick double is very much on the cards, so this does have all the makings of a massive plotjob. Convenient that the handicapper doesn't act till Tuesday which will enable the follow up under no penalty ;-) Mr Best does know the time of day ha, absolute classic plot. It's all so terribly obvious isn't it? Will be rated a hundred and something this time next week anyway under a massive double penalty.
While it is blatant deception, trainer's will continue to exploit loopholes if the BHA keep their outdated rules and regulations. Me personally, I am not bothered by it one bit, from a punter's point of view. You can spot these a mile off, and if you get your money on early, you will be laughing too at the handicapper/BHA's expense.
Had been waiting for this horse for some time, hence why I managed to get on as soon as Bet 365 made the error of pricing the animal at 14/1 (thankyou very much) The price lasted virtually seconds, but I snuck on for decent money and am fully expecting to be a few hundred pound richer come this time tomorrow. At 7/2, the horse is still overpriced, then again any price is big when it looks as much of a banker as this one. As I say though, maybe it isn't his day tomorrow, maybe the horse falls etc etc. Things can go wrong, but you can guarantee one thing; the horse will be trying tomorrow!
Thanks for reading and enjoy watching RC win by half the track as Jim Best cracks a cheeky smile, knowing he has had one over on the BHA and the handicapper, once again. Here's to many more Jim!
THT
Rated 85 on the flat - a perfectly decent handicapper. Two flat wins from eight races, not bad at all! Then Jim Best took over training duties from David Lanigan.
Race 1 (maiden): 13/15 - Beaten 138 lengths at 9/1
Race 2 (maiden): 8/13 - Beaten 41 lengths at 33/1
Race 3 (novice): 9/11 - Beaten 200 lengths at 66/1
Race 4 (novice): Fell at 50/1
Race 5 (novice): 7/8 - Beaten 111 lengths at 66/1
Race 6 (novice): 10/11 - Beaten 68 lengths at 100/1.
At this stage, the future didn't look bright over obstacles for the son of Galileo. Oh, wait a minute, let's have a go in handicap company! Given a mark of 85 (incidentally the same as flat mark) Planetoid then made is handicap debut in 0-95 company.
Race 7: (handicap): 1/11 - Won by 5 lengths eased down at 5/6.
Hmm.
The less said about it the better. Or is it? Is it time we, the racing fan, actually did something about this blatant deception and playing of the 'system.' This got me thinking, should we as the punter, really be that concerned? Plenty got on the gamble that day. Don't remember the opening price but it was absolutely hammered in. Surely the concern is more for the bookmakers, not to mention the BHA who we all know by now are generally totally useless. The thing that gets me is how blatantly obvious trainers like Jim Best (though he is certainly not alone) manipulate the system. He knows he can do it, and the BHA won't do a thing. Yes the stewards will 'investigate' the horse's improved form and make their notes and scribble down their ramblings and promise to look into previous race footage. Has anyone ever heard of this resulting in anything? No, me neither. They don't seem to care, or perhaps they have better things to do, like sorting out the ridiculously low levels of prize money, oh wait a minute, they aren't doing that either. What are they doing?! Lol.
The fact Planetoid was given the same mark over jumps as on the flat was laughable anyway, but the BHA took their time and smelt a rat. Usually, like tomorrow's huge gamble, a horse is given a mark after three runs. Anyway, the handicapper was made to look like a total fool and the rest is history. Let's look at tomorrow's example, which is such a perfect example of the non-trier. (unless Ramona Chase really is diabolical over fences of course!)
Race 1 (novice): 12/12 - Beaten 81 lengths at 66/1.
Race 2 (maiden): 14/15 - Beaten 126 lengths at 100/1.
Race 3 (maiden): 12/15 - Beaten 90 lengths at 100/1.
Race 4 (handicap) ???
Ramona Chase was a perfectly decent flat horse and is bred to stay well. He predominantly raced between 10-12f and is related to hurdle winners. Actually quite nicely bred and cost plenty of money. He is rated around 84-85 on the flat. Judged on his first three efforts over hurdles, he has been given one of the most laughable marks I have ever seen in racing. 59. 59?! For a horse rated 25lbs or so better on the flat?! A 85 rated flat horse usually ends up being a 110-130 rated horse over jumps as a rough guide. It's worse than laughable that Ramona Chase is allowed to run off 59 tomorrow, miles out the handicap in 0-95 company. The top rated horse in this race was a career best 70 on the flat, and runs off 95 tomorrow carrying top weight. Ramona Chase 85 on flat, 59 tomorrow carrying bottom weight. Puts that right into perspective. Now can you see why it has been hammered into 7/2 from 16/1 in just a few hours? Buying money, and lots of it if you got on early.
The horse is so well in that I honestly believe it could lap them, it's ridiculous, it's worse than ridiculous. But again it raises the question should we care?
While it does absolutely nothing for the integrity of the sport, perhaps it might take such a ridiculous case such as this for the BHA to introduce some new rules and guidelines. One could be that the handicapper refuses to assess a horse if beaten more than, say 25 lengths? For a horse to establish a mark, it must finish within 25L of the winner 3 times. Sounds like a good idea to me. At least then you know they are trying, a bit anyway.
Oh by the way, Mattie Batchelor was investigated and then banned for 10 days for one of his non-trying rides on RC. Not his fault of course, we all know jockeys all do what they are told.
I wonder what Jim Best's representative will say tomorrow when he is inevitably called into the stewards room at approximately 14.50. He will certainly be earning his bacon anyway. One excuse they might use is the horse 'summered well and was refreshed from the break.' RC been off since the Spring, we will see anyway. The funniest one's are 'could offer no explanation to the horse's improved form.' Ha!
One thing that is becoming more fashionable is being a non-trier on handicap debut. This (theoretically of course) makes the handicapper feel he has not been had, and you never know might even drop another pound or two! This can also enable a bigger price for connections the next time when the horse subsequently destroys the dismal field on the bridle and they have lumped on at an early double figure price. That is always the danger with going in too heavily on these gambles. But let's be honest, we all know Ramona Chase isn't a 59 animal, except the handicapper of course! Lol. The horse has an entry in another four days time, which suggest a quick double is very much on the cards, so this does have all the makings of a massive plotjob. Convenient that the handicapper doesn't act till Tuesday which will enable the follow up under no penalty ;-) Mr Best does know the time of day ha, absolute classic plot. It's all so terribly obvious isn't it? Will be rated a hundred and something this time next week anyway under a massive double penalty.
While it is blatant deception, trainer's will continue to exploit loopholes if the BHA keep their outdated rules and regulations. Me personally, I am not bothered by it one bit, from a punter's point of view. You can spot these a mile off, and if you get your money on early, you will be laughing too at the handicapper/BHA's expense.
Had been waiting for this horse for some time, hence why I managed to get on as soon as Bet 365 made the error of pricing the animal at 14/1 (thankyou very much) The price lasted virtually seconds, but I snuck on for decent money and am fully expecting to be a few hundred pound richer come this time tomorrow. At 7/2, the horse is still overpriced, then again any price is big when it looks as much of a banker as this one. As I say though, maybe it isn't his day tomorrow, maybe the horse falls etc etc. Things can go wrong, but you can guarantee one thing; the horse will be trying tomorrow!
Thanks for reading and enjoy watching RC win by half the track as Jim Best cracks a cheeky smile, knowing he has had one over on the BHA and the handicapper, once again. Here's to many more Jim!
THT
Sunday, 8 December 2013
Monday 9th December
Got a few I like tomorrow and usually do well on Monday's for some reason so very hopeful. They are all chancey and the nature of the runners means they will either come first or last I think. Anyway, will keep it short and sweet.
Divers is a lovely horse. I just don't think he likes chasing anymore. The lovely grey is back over hurdles today on only his second run for Donald McCain which I think will be the key to a return to form. The Cheltenham Festival race winner has run over hurdles only once this year where he finished 3rd over C and D behind Paul Nicholls' Salubrious who is now rated 153. Despite the rest of the competition looking weak that day, Divers today drops down in class into shallower waters and can run off 123, his lowest mark since late 2010. He has been hammered and pulled up in his three chases since his good hurdles run but he has won over this course and distance before. Also, his last run was after a 7 month break, so he was entitled to need the outing. 12/1 is a great price for an animal of his class and is a good ew fancy, despite some decent opposition.
Uprise drops down in class after showing a return to form last time, finishing 3rd at Kempton in a slightly better race. Handicapper has given him another crack off this mark and the Pivotal gelding should take advantage. He has only won one race; his last start for Michael Stoute at odds on last summer off a mark of 74. Since switching yards the horse has tumbled down the weights and now looks ready to strike off 63 in an uncompetitive race. This will be the first time the horse has run in a Class 6 race. Looks a very generous price at 8/1 and looks nailed on for a place at least imo.
Marciano is a bit of an unknown and is exactly why I mentioned him on Twitter before his last run where he ran a big race considering his odds. SP ended up being a bit shorter at about 25/1 but he looked the winner at one point before just not quite finding enough in the closing stages. He travelled very well and the step back to 6f is absolutely ideal. George Fenton who finished a neck in front of Marciano has since come out and won and with the step back in trip and run under his belt, the bay gelding by Pivotal (another one!) can outrun his huge price in what looks a fairly competitive event. The danger could be the Alan Bailey maiden back from break. Winston won on last two Bailey horses, was scheduled to ride Equitania too the other day but missed ride which would have made it last 3/3! (horse won - annoyingly as was in the tracker and didn't back!!)
Queen Aggie in the Wolves finale is a very interesting candidate. I backed a few times in summer as was so well handicapped but gave up (thankfully as she still hasnt won since!) However I am going back in today. She won her first two starts very impressively and promised to be something special beating some top horses in her early days. However since her Chester win over a year ago, things have gone backward and from once running off 94 in a listed event, she can today run off 72 in a Class 5 handicap. This horse is only three years old by the way. So why is she going to win this time? Well, she ran a very nice race last time on her first ever run over a mile. (been campaigned at 5-7f) She ran on really well late on last time (in a better race) and over the extended mile at Wolverhampton this time, being unexposed at 1m+, she can get back to winning ways off the same mark in this, the weakest handicap she has ever contested. One final penny for your thoughts. Historic form means next to nothing but as a matter of interest she once finished just a length behind Oaks heroine Talent...
14.20 Divers 12/1 e/w
15.30 Uprise 8/1 e/w
15.40 Marciano 14/1 e/w
17.10 Queen Aggie 9/1 ew
Backed all as singles, more on the win doubles and a 50p e/w Lucky 15 paying £13769 at best prices.
Am confident in all of them, if you pushed me for a NAP I would say the filly. In terms of value, Marciano is massively overpriced, but they are all far bigger that they ought to be, in my opinion at least!
Good Luck if you play, as I said, all quite chancey and think will either finish first or last, but if on a going day and we get a bit of luck, could be a day to remember.
**(Also backed Munsarim as backed last time and interesting turned out so quickly - didn't see it was running till looked through Twitter! @PTMAHON made it a mexbet too which is always a good thing! Runs in the 16.40 Wolves - 16/1 e/w single)**
THT
Divers is a lovely horse. I just don't think he likes chasing anymore. The lovely grey is back over hurdles today on only his second run for Donald McCain which I think will be the key to a return to form. The Cheltenham Festival race winner has run over hurdles only once this year where he finished 3rd over C and D behind Paul Nicholls' Salubrious who is now rated 153. Despite the rest of the competition looking weak that day, Divers today drops down in class into shallower waters and can run off 123, his lowest mark since late 2010. He has been hammered and pulled up in his three chases since his good hurdles run but he has won over this course and distance before. Also, his last run was after a 7 month break, so he was entitled to need the outing. 12/1 is a great price for an animal of his class and is a good ew fancy, despite some decent opposition.
Uprise drops down in class after showing a return to form last time, finishing 3rd at Kempton in a slightly better race. Handicapper has given him another crack off this mark and the Pivotal gelding should take advantage. He has only won one race; his last start for Michael Stoute at odds on last summer off a mark of 74. Since switching yards the horse has tumbled down the weights and now looks ready to strike off 63 in an uncompetitive race. This will be the first time the horse has run in a Class 6 race. Looks a very generous price at 8/1 and looks nailed on for a place at least imo.
Marciano is a bit of an unknown and is exactly why I mentioned him on Twitter before his last run where he ran a big race considering his odds. SP ended up being a bit shorter at about 25/1 but he looked the winner at one point before just not quite finding enough in the closing stages. He travelled very well and the step back to 6f is absolutely ideal. George Fenton who finished a neck in front of Marciano has since come out and won and with the step back in trip and run under his belt, the bay gelding by Pivotal (another one!) can outrun his huge price in what looks a fairly competitive event. The danger could be the Alan Bailey maiden back from break. Winston won on last two Bailey horses, was scheduled to ride Equitania too the other day but missed ride which would have made it last 3/3! (horse won - annoyingly as was in the tracker and didn't back!!)
Queen Aggie in the Wolves finale is a very interesting candidate. I backed a few times in summer as was so well handicapped but gave up (thankfully as she still hasnt won since!) However I am going back in today. She won her first two starts very impressively and promised to be something special beating some top horses in her early days. However since her Chester win over a year ago, things have gone backward and from once running off 94 in a listed event, she can today run off 72 in a Class 5 handicap. This horse is only three years old by the way. So why is she going to win this time? Well, she ran a very nice race last time on her first ever run over a mile. (been campaigned at 5-7f) She ran on really well late on last time (in a better race) and over the extended mile at Wolverhampton this time, being unexposed at 1m+, she can get back to winning ways off the same mark in this, the weakest handicap she has ever contested. One final penny for your thoughts. Historic form means next to nothing but as a matter of interest she once finished just a length behind Oaks heroine Talent...
14.20 Divers 12/1 e/w
15.30 Uprise 8/1 e/w
15.40 Marciano 14/1 e/w
17.10 Queen Aggie 9/1 ew
Backed all as singles, more on the win doubles and a 50p e/w Lucky 15 paying £13769 at best prices.
Am confident in all of them, if you pushed me for a NAP I would say the filly. In terms of value, Marciano is massively overpriced, but they are all far bigger that they ought to be, in my opinion at least!
Good Luck if you play, as I said, all quite chancey and think will either finish first or last, but if on a going day and we get a bit of luck, could be a day to remember.
**(Also backed Munsarim as backed last time and interesting turned out so quickly - didn't see it was running till looked through Twitter! @PTMAHON made it a mexbet too which is always a good thing! Runs in the 16.40 Wolves - 16/1 e/w single)**
THT
Tuesday, 3 December 2013
Wednesday 4th December
Morning/Afternoon all and thanks for taking the time out your busy days to have a read of the blog. Not done it in ages but as I tweeted on Tuesday afternoon I have a maxbet for Wednesday which doesn't happen very often at all. Lots of people throw the term around loosely, usually on some 8/13 shot that ends up getting beat. Hell I remember someone claimed he had inside knowledge that a race was fixed for a 10/11 shot to win (Hillstar) and he said some ridiculous things like stick your house on it, can't be beaten etc etc. Alas, Hillstar was beaten and his twitter days were over.
A maxbet doesn't mean empty your bank account, it doesn't mean put your life savings on and it doesn't mean the horse will definitely win. All it means is the biggest amount you would be prepared to stake (with the possibility of losing) on something to happen. For some it would be £10, for others it could be £100.
The good thing about Wednesday's maxbet is that the price will be backable ew. Therefore, you will be in profit even if it places which I expect at worse. I really think the horse will win and everything is pointing to a massive run. As I say, I don't often do these but really very confident.
Anyway enough of the rambling. The horse in question is the grand old servant, Lastkingofscotland. He has raced one hundred times, finishing in the top three on forty of those occasions and can make it his fourteenth career victory on Wednesday. Here's why.
The Horse:
Firstly, the horse is now rated 59. This is his lowest ever rating by 4lb. He is not a 59 animal, we all know that. With six wins off marks in the seventies, his highest being 75 in handicap company, he is clearly very well handicapped on Wednesday. That win off 75 was this year, so don't give me the 'regressive' bull crap. Won in 0-75 company very easily (today 0-60) and that was his last win. That last win was over today's course and distance. Returned to the scene of his last win, he can take advantage of his lowly mark.
Worth noting that two runs ago LKOS was hampered badly inside the final furlong. I'm not saying he would have won, course I'm not, as the jockey was told not to win that day. Pushed him along for about five strides and looked like he got himself into trouble in the first instance anyway. But there was hope in this run, especially as it was over wrong trip. Next time he was sent to the front where he should be, though the early effort to get over from the wide draw seemed to tell in the final furlong when he was headed and then it was over. There was significant market support last time by the way, suggesting his turn is near.
The Trainer:
We have been waiting for some time for the Connor Dore Xmas fund to get underway as pretty much all his horses are now so ridiculously well handicapped it's not funny. Or perhaps he can't train any more, who knows ha. There have been glimmers recently, with plenty of 2's 3's and 4's in the formbook and I can just imagine him climbing some sort of high tower at his yard, then playing a motivational warcry on some sort of brass instrument to his workforce and commanding that all handbrakes be released on all his horses. Okay maybe I am going slightly mad but when one goes in they will all follow and might be an idea to have a second look at his runners throughout the festive period.
My Worries:
There are two things which worry me and if the horse wasn't an each way price then I likely wouldn't be making this a max bet. Firstly, the jockey booking. Whether Dore wants to give his apprentice a winner for all his hard work I don't know, but he is usually a trainer who gets a 'proper jockey' on his plots. That said on this particular horse he has never really had an apprentice riding for so many races. (apprentice on board 5 of last 6 runs) So this is only a slight concern, though I would be happier to see a Luke Morris or an Adam Kirby on board.
The main issue is the draw. Being predominantly a front runner, the draw in 8 is unfavourable. That first right turn comes pretty quickly at Kempton and both jockey and horse (who usually breaks very smartly may I add) need to be alert. If he doesn't get to the front, it could be game over for win purposes, though that said he has been held up before when he has won (well) and he is so well handicapped it might not matter tactically, so all hope is certainly not lost, though as I say it is a slight concern.
Oh and another thing I have started to notice. These plotjobs on the AW always seem to be in the last race of the day. A few with Milton Bradley recently, Squance's Diplomatic (a great horse!) and other such gambling stables have come to my attention. Very likely just coincidence, but found it interesting nonetheless and LKOS is in the final race on Wednesday. He was also in the final race the last time he won here and the time before, though as I say, likely means F all.
LKOS will win soon, and could probably win by half the track tomorrow if he was fully let go. Can't remember the last time he ran in such a weak race but the dangers would likely be the 3yo that Crowley is on maybe (?) the two at the bottom of the hcap who were both 2nd last time could go well again I suppose but mainly Dishy Guru who, like LKOS is very well hcapped and I have a coverbet on that one as I have backed that one before, including last time when showed a glimmer on return from a break.
Please don't bet stupidly, a horse is a horse at the end of the day, and the trainer might still be waiting to release the handbrake. If not tomorrow, next time, if not next time, time after but he will win very soon at a price, and then probably rack up a hattrick or more as he is so well in on old (this year's) form. Good Luck all!
19.20 Kempton Lastkingofscotland @12/1
Also had a coverbet and the rfc on Dishy Guru @ 10/1 e/w.
THT
A maxbet doesn't mean empty your bank account, it doesn't mean put your life savings on and it doesn't mean the horse will definitely win. All it means is the biggest amount you would be prepared to stake (with the possibility of losing) on something to happen. For some it would be £10, for others it could be £100.
The good thing about Wednesday's maxbet is that the price will be backable ew. Therefore, you will be in profit even if it places which I expect at worse. I really think the horse will win and everything is pointing to a massive run. As I say, I don't often do these but really very confident.
Anyway enough of the rambling. The horse in question is the grand old servant, Lastkingofscotland. He has raced one hundred times, finishing in the top three on forty of those occasions and can make it his fourteenth career victory on Wednesday. Here's why.
The Horse:
Firstly, the horse is now rated 59. This is his lowest ever rating by 4lb. He is not a 59 animal, we all know that. With six wins off marks in the seventies, his highest being 75 in handicap company, he is clearly very well handicapped on Wednesday. That win off 75 was this year, so don't give me the 'regressive' bull crap. Won in 0-75 company very easily (today 0-60) and that was his last win. That last win was over today's course and distance. Returned to the scene of his last win, he can take advantage of his lowly mark.
Worth noting that two runs ago LKOS was hampered badly inside the final furlong. I'm not saying he would have won, course I'm not, as the jockey was told not to win that day. Pushed him along for about five strides and looked like he got himself into trouble in the first instance anyway. But there was hope in this run, especially as it was over wrong trip. Next time he was sent to the front where he should be, though the early effort to get over from the wide draw seemed to tell in the final furlong when he was headed and then it was over. There was significant market support last time by the way, suggesting his turn is near.
The Trainer:
We have been waiting for some time for the Connor Dore Xmas fund to get underway as pretty much all his horses are now so ridiculously well handicapped it's not funny. Or perhaps he can't train any more, who knows ha. There have been glimmers recently, with plenty of 2's 3's and 4's in the formbook and I can just imagine him climbing some sort of high tower at his yard, then playing a motivational warcry on some sort of brass instrument to his workforce and commanding that all handbrakes be released on all his horses. Okay maybe I am going slightly mad but when one goes in they will all follow and might be an idea to have a second look at his runners throughout the festive period.
My Worries:
There are two things which worry me and if the horse wasn't an each way price then I likely wouldn't be making this a max bet. Firstly, the jockey booking. Whether Dore wants to give his apprentice a winner for all his hard work I don't know, but he is usually a trainer who gets a 'proper jockey' on his plots. That said on this particular horse he has never really had an apprentice riding for so many races. (apprentice on board 5 of last 6 runs) So this is only a slight concern, though I would be happier to see a Luke Morris or an Adam Kirby on board.
The main issue is the draw. Being predominantly a front runner, the draw in 8 is unfavourable. That first right turn comes pretty quickly at Kempton and both jockey and horse (who usually breaks very smartly may I add) need to be alert. If he doesn't get to the front, it could be game over for win purposes, though that said he has been held up before when he has won (well) and he is so well handicapped it might not matter tactically, so all hope is certainly not lost, though as I say it is a slight concern.
Oh and another thing I have started to notice. These plotjobs on the AW always seem to be in the last race of the day. A few with Milton Bradley recently, Squance's Diplomatic (a great horse!) and other such gambling stables have come to my attention. Very likely just coincidence, but found it interesting nonetheless and LKOS is in the final race on Wednesday. He was also in the final race the last time he won here and the time before, though as I say, likely means F all.
LKOS will win soon, and could probably win by half the track tomorrow if he was fully let go. Can't remember the last time he ran in such a weak race but the dangers would likely be the 3yo that Crowley is on maybe (?) the two at the bottom of the hcap who were both 2nd last time could go well again I suppose but mainly Dishy Guru who, like LKOS is very well hcapped and I have a coverbet on that one as I have backed that one before, including last time when showed a glimmer on return from a break.
Please don't bet stupidly, a horse is a horse at the end of the day, and the trainer might still be waiting to release the handbrake. If not tomorrow, next time, if not next time, time after but he will win very soon at a price, and then probably rack up a hattrick or more as he is so well in on old (this year's) form. Good Luck all!
19.20 Kempton Lastkingofscotland @12/1
Also had a coverbet and the rfc on Dishy Guru @ 10/1 e/w.
THT
Tuesday, 24 September 2013
Wednesday 25th September
Wanted to put my reasons up for today's picks as I have a week off from work and have the time to write the blog again! Been on a good run of late with 25/1 winner on Saturday followed by a 12/1 winner yesterday amongst plenty of shorter priced winners and longshots placing. Think I have only ever done a maxbet once before and I was going to do one today but there are one or two tiny question marks so it isn't a maxbet but it is my NAP at a very good price.
Goodwood 16.50 - Apricot Sky 15/2 NAP
Apricot Sky is my best bet of the day for Henry Candy and Dane O'Neill. The chestnut gelding has been put away for most of the summer after his game win from a 1/8 shot back in May. The horse in question was a Noseda colt by the name of Ian's Dream. The horse opened at 2/11 that day after finishing a length behind Reckless Abandon the previous race which happened to be the Group 2 Norfolk Stakes. Punters weren't shy next time and the horse was backed into 1/10 at one point before slightly easing back out to an SP of 1/8. Ian's Dream was beaten again at odds on next time then went on to win a maiden at odds on as well as running in Group 3 Jersey Stakes last time out though not very well and was then given a well deserved break and hasn't been seen since. The horse is rated in the high 80's but was once rated 105 and could be a decent proposition for the Noseda yard next season.
Apricot Sky and Ian's Dream pulled well clear from the rest of the field last time, some seven or eight lengths. The key piece of form for me that shows that this horse is very very well in is that the horse that came forth in that race, 7-8 lengths behind Apricot Sky has since gone on to win three times, and is currently on a hattrick. Apricot Sky today runs off a mark of 75, while Green Monkey, the horse in question is now rated 76 and judged on the comfortable nature of his last win, he might even be a bit better than that. On these two pieces of form, Candy's gelding now starts to look like he has plenty in hand on today's rivals and in an average 0-80 handicap this horse should be very very hard to beat.
However there are two concerns, both of which made this a NAP instead of a maxbet. Firstly the ground. He has only raced on good to firm ground and the AW surface so far and the ground is forecast good to soft tomorrow which is a worry. However, there is some hope on the sire's side ground wise as many of his offspring seem to prefer slower ground and you would hope the horse would be pulled if the ground was to be against him. Judged on the form, he might even be good enough on ground that wouldn't suit but I guess we will find out tomorrow. The second concern is the break though hopefully Candy will have him 100% fit for today's race and I think this one will be very tough to get past, and even if he can only manage second or third, at 15/2 you would still be making decent profit backing e/w. The dangers are the current favourite, Slip Sliding Away - effective over C and D and unexposed Dilgura could be well h'capped if improved over the summer but hopefully neither will be anywhere near our Apricot :-)
Redcar 17.30 - Little Jimmy Odsox 7/2 NB
Little Jimmy has dropped into a 0-65 from 0-75 after being dropped another lb by the handicapper after an uninspiring effort last time when there was some market support for him. (including my own money!) Giving him a final chance today and can't have him beat in a very weak race on a desperate Redcar card. Won over C and D a few starts back in a higher grade off a 3lb lower mark and on better ground than he faced last time, it is surely his race to lose. Get a quick start, get to the front, slow them down, wind it up, kick on and make all, that's the plan.
Goodwood 15.05 - Charles Camoin 10/1
Backed this one when winning well on belated reappearance from over a year off at 20/1 two starts back and owes me nothing. Connections have pulled him three or four times in the last week or so and his trainer is keen to look after this gelding that has had several problems over the lastfew years. He can be forgiven his last run and despite only seven runners (paying 2 places) he looks worth an e/w punt stepping up to 1m 4f for only the second time. Sylvester Kirk rates his horse and judged on what he said after his reappearance win, he should be going on to bigger and better things. Very lightly raced and unexposed at the trip, I really like his chances providing he runs. I also think Charles will be suited by the nature of the Goodwood course. Undulating and sharp, just like Epsom where he won on his only visit. Hopefully if he runs he can go very close, but only a small e/w bet and nowhere near as confident with this one as I am with the NAP and NB. Might need it a bit firmer too.
Goodwood 16.50 - Apricot Sky 15/2 NAP
Apricot Sky is my best bet of the day for Henry Candy and Dane O'Neill. The chestnut gelding has been put away for most of the summer after his game win from a 1/8 shot back in May. The horse in question was a Noseda colt by the name of Ian's Dream. The horse opened at 2/11 that day after finishing a length behind Reckless Abandon the previous race which happened to be the Group 2 Norfolk Stakes. Punters weren't shy next time and the horse was backed into 1/10 at one point before slightly easing back out to an SP of 1/8. Ian's Dream was beaten again at odds on next time then went on to win a maiden at odds on as well as running in Group 3 Jersey Stakes last time out though not very well and was then given a well deserved break and hasn't been seen since. The horse is rated in the high 80's but was once rated 105 and could be a decent proposition for the Noseda yard next season.
Apricot Sky and Ian's Dream pulled well clear from the rest of the field last time, some seven or eight lengths. The key piece of form for me that shows that this horse is very very well in is that the horse that came forth in that race, 7-8 lengths behind Apricot Sky has since gone on to win three times, and is currently on a hattrick. Apricot Sky today runs off a mark of 75, while Green Monkey, the horse in question is now rated 76 and judged on the comfortable nature of his last win, he might even be a bit better than that. On these two pieces of form, Candy's gelding now starts to look like he has plenty in hand on today's rivals and in an average 0-80 handicap this horse should be very very hard to beat.
However there are two concerns, both of which made this a NAP instead of a maxbet. Firstly the ground. He has only raced on good to firm ground and the AW surface so far and the ground is forecast good to soft tomorrow which is a worry. However, there is some hope on the sire's side ground wise as many of his offspring seem to prefer slower ground and you would hope the horse would be pulled if the ground was to be against him. Judged on the form, he might even be good enough on ground that wouldn't suit but I guess we will find out tomorrow. The second concern is the break though hopefully Candy will have him 100% fit for today's race and I think this one will be very tough to get past, and even if he can only manage second or third, at 15/2 you would still be making decent profit backing e/w. The dangers are the current favourite, Slip Sliding Away - effective over C and D and unexposed Dilgura could be well h'capped if improved over the summer but hopefully neither will be anywhere near our Apricot :-)
Redcar 17.30 - Little Jimmy Odsox 7/2 NB
Little Jimmy has dropped into a 0-65 from 0-75 after being dropped another lb by the handicapper after an uninspiring effort last time when there was some market support for him. (including my own money!) Giving him a final chance today and can't have him beat in a very weak race on a desperate Redcar card. Won over C and D a few starts back in a higher grade off a 3lb lower mark and on better ground than he faced last time, it is surely his race to lose. Get a quick start, get to the front, slow them down, wind it up, kick on and make all, that's the plan.
Goodwood 15.05 - Charles Camoin 10/1
Backed this one when winning well on belated reappearance from over a year off at 20/1 two starts back and owes me nothing. Connections have pulled him three or four times in the last week or so and his trainer is keen to look after this gelding that has had several problems over the lastfew years. He can be forgiven his last run and despite only seven runners (paying 2 places) he looks worth an e/w punt stepping up to 1m 4f for only the second time. Sylvester Kirk rates his horse and judged on what he said after his reappearance win, he should be going on to bigger and better things. Very lightly raced and unexposed at the trip, I really like his chances providing he runs. I also think Charles will be suited by the nature of the Goodwood course. Undulating and sharp, just like Epsom where he won on his only visit. Hopefully if he runs he can go very close, but only a small e/w bet and nowhere near as confident with this one as I am with the NAP and NB. Might need it a bit firmer too.
*late addition* - 15.40 Goodwood Sugar Boy 9/2
Backed the NAP to place and win, the NB as a win single and both in a double pays 37/1 at best prices. Also had a small trixie and tiny treble, which pays 420/1 for your money! Worth a quid or two e/w :-)
Good Luck! I'm hopeful.
PS. If you are more of a short priced big stakes punter then technically on all known form Batallion can not be beaten in the 16.15 Goodwood but I don't trust Haggas and the price is suspiciously appealing for a horse that should be 1/3, in my mind at least! 11/10 on offer but not touching myself.
THT
Backed the NAP to place and win, the NB as a win single and both in a double pays 37/1 at best prices. Also had a small trixie and tiny treble, which pays 420/1 for your money! Worth a quid or two e/w :-)
Good Luck! I'm hopeful.
PS. If you are more of a short priced big stakes punter then technically on all known form Batallion can not be beaten in the 16.15 Goodwood but I don't trust Haggas and the price is suspiciously appealing for a horse that should be 1/3, in my mind at least! 11/10 on offer but not touching myself.
THT
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