There are so many misconceptions amongst the average punter in regards to value in my opinion. Below I give my very simplified take on value for the average punter. First of all what is value? Value for the everday bettor is solely based on an opinion. I.E - is the horse a bigger price than you expected? Does the horse have a greater chance of winning than the price suggests? The way I have always worked out a race is first of all look through the recent form of the runners, yard form, C/D winner etc and everything else in between. I don't look at forecast prices and I don't look at the early markets. I price up the race myself roughly in my head, (sometimes written down if really in the mood!) then I will open up oddschecker and see where we stand. Don't get me wrong, I have literally had entire markets completely upside down but by doing this you can compare your thoughts and the bookmakers and then try and find out why there is such a difference, if any.
There is always this battle of wit between punter and bookmaker, trying to out-smart eachother. Bookies sometimes offer surprisingly big prices and sucking people in (Captain Cat a good recent example) but the thing people forget is that bookmakers make mistakes. They price races up wrong, intentionally or otherwise. Happens everyday, nearly every race, there will always be at least one or two runners whose odds don't reflect anything like the horse's realistic chances of winning the race. Generally a runner catches the eye when first scanning the card and that's the one you concentrate on.
If the horse is a 5/1 poke in your head but a firm are offering 10/1, the first thing to do is ask why? Is there something you have missed? I go back, look again make sure I am happy with my 5/1 evaluation. Sometimes I am, sometimes I see I have missed something huge and the horse is suddenly 20's in my head. The key is being honest with yourself, discipline is the number one necessity in this game. If I can't find any reason why it is available to back at a double figure price, I would likely have a bet as I deem the bet to be good VALUE. I know this is really simplified but I don't want to go on all day.
The above doesn't consider bookies overrounds (approx 115% to 125%) so you have to be careful. You can't just make up your own market at any prices you please. There are various overround calculators out there to keep you on track. Alternitavely, you could use the forecast SP's as a reference. Problem is the person who has done those needs to know what they are talking about, and I have seen forecast SP's of 16/1 open at 5/2 and vice versa. Saying that, for those new to racing and the mathematics of betting, using the forecast SP's as a reference to actual prices available can be a good way to start to understand value.
The other thing worth mentioning is that value is more relevant and noticeable at shorter prices. If you have a horse at 20/1 in your mind but 33/1 is available you may think because there is 13pts difference that you have found a gold mine. Realistically this is not the case. Despite there being a big difference in terms of points, literally a few pounds can move a horse 33/1>>20/1 in the overnight market, and in the seconds before a race bookies can throw a 20/1 poke out to 33/1 in a blink of an eye. At your price and the bookmakers, the horse has a very slim chance of winning anyway, the difference isn't worth reading too much in to. However, if you have one priced at even money in your head and you see 7/4 available, this is the time to seriously consider having a bet. You may not think evs and 7/4 are that much different but see the comparison below.
The maths:
20/1 shot - 4.8% chance of winning
33/1 shot - 2.9% chance of winning
= 1.9% difference
Evs shot - 50% chance of winning
7/4 shot - 36.4% chance of winning
= 13.6% difference
This explains perfectly what I am trying to say. In these examples, the short prices are around seven times more relavant as a % difference than the bigger prices. This is partly because it takes a whole heap of cash to move a horse into even money from 7/4. Obviously the above is assuming you are a good judge, but as I said earlier, value is all about opinion. While opinions can never be right or wrong, you will find they get more accurate the more races you study and as you get a greater understanding of the mathematics behind the markets and bookmaking in general.
Remember a 1/4 shot can still be value. If you think the horse has a higher percentage of winning than his odds suggest, then true value punters should still see this as a betting opportunity. If the horse is a 1/8 poke in your head then there is a 8.9% difference in the bookmaker odds and the odds you think that best reflect the horse's chances. This means that effectively you are getting over four times the VALUE backing this 1/4 shot than you are backing the 33/1 shot in the above example. That hits it home doesn't it. Value doesn't mean the horse is a big price, value can be found at any price and as shown above it is actually at the shorter prices that the real value can be found.
So why is value out there? Partly it is because bookmakers don't spend enough time properly looking through races to find the horse's true chance of winning. Some bookies are lazier than others, but generally the runners are priced up on form. Overnight markets are something I prefer didn't exist, it can literally take a few pounds here and there to completely crush a price and ruin it for everybody. This is because there is no liquidity in the markets and if it were up to me, all prices would be released by all bookmakers at 8am on the morning of the race. However, as this isn't the case, I will try and back horses at the best available prices I can get, as would anyone.
I had a good look through the cards yesterday afternoon and picked out a few potential interesting runners. I roughly priced up the markets for all the races I was interested in, then had a look on oddschecker at the early prices. Below was my thinking process for my three on the blog:
Jupiter Rex - Had this one at about 2/1, race not especially strong, stable in form, somehow dropped 2lbs by the handicapper for reappearance run which he would have come on a lot for, conditions to suit. I said to myself anything over 2/1 I will have a bet. I thought the horse had around a 33.3% chance of winning. Looked at the odds, 10/3 out there (23.1%) which is over 10% difference, safe to say I snapped that up and made Jupiter Rex my NAP - but at that price. He isn't my NAP at 6/4 available now, because 6/4 suggests a 40% chance of winning which I think is too short and doesn't represent VALUE. This is why getting on early is so important.
Xaarcet - Had this one at about 9/2 (18.2%) Race is terrible, yard starting to fire, won at the course, very well handicapped, should go well fresh and conditions to suit. 13/2 was available for this one (13.3%) so I backed it with that 4.9% cushion in mind. Is now around 5/2 which represents no value to me whatsoever. I wouldn't back my NB at 5/2 is what I am saying. (28.6%) I think the price is too short and in my opinion overestimates the horses chances. It was my NB at the price of 13/2.
Brantingham Breeze - I would have backed this one at 4/1. The opening price gave me a little bit of juice at 5/1, but only a small value percentage of 3.3%. If the horse was 10/1, it would have been my NAP as the difference would have been 10.9%, a greater difference than my NAP.
Value % or rating:
Jupiter Rex 10.2 = NAP
Xaarcet 4.9 = NB
Brantingham Breeze 3.3 = IWAC
Double figure differences don't happen that often, so Jupiter Rex was a strong selection for me, worthy of a decent punt. A staking system built on these percentages alone is something I may consider and trial, it's all about trying new things and trying to find an edge and more importantly having fun.
As I have said it is different for everyone, so you have to trust yourself and be honest with yourself, This is just my take, others will completely disagree and have their own opinions, which is why horseracing is such a fantastic sport.
Hope you enjoyed my ramblings and more importantly hope we nail a winner or two today.
THT
Sunday, 23 November 2014
Saturday, 11 October 2014
Racing Debates - Is it possible to fix a race?
Betting scandals and market/race fixing accusations are rarely out of the headlines in racing, it is something the average punter is well aware of. First lets ask the question - what is fixing a race? Is it all jockeys and/or trainers/owners colluding to arrange the outcome of a race for financial gain? Or is it simply entering a horse that has no realistic chance whether that be by connections' choice or the horses' natural ability. This further widens the opening of racing's dark and unexposed underbelly. Is running a horse that is not at full racing fitness a form of race fixing? Lets explore these.
The Non Trier - I am not being a wild and crazed conspiracy theorist here, but the first rule that anyone new to racing and betting on racing should know is this: Not all horses in the race are there to win. If they were, we would all be millionaires because a very simple study of a formbook would tell you all the answers. Horses with race winning ability are run everyday where connections have absolutely no intention of winning. This can be for various reasons including wanting a reduced handicap mark, the race being used as a prep run for another race in near future or day I say it for certain people in the know to make a few quid. Owners and even some trainers and jockeys have been convicted for laying their own horses in the past and wouldn't surprise me if it happened again. Non triers happen every single day, that's not a conspiracy theory, that's a fact. Now lets get back to the original question, is this race fixing? Knowing that the horse you have entered in a race is not there to win. Most will say no, but a few will argue it is and I can see why. However, this will never stop, despite the fact it could be seen as unfair to punters etc, this is part of racing. Without non triers there would be no every day run-of-the-mill racing and I am comfortable with this, otherwise I wouldn't risk my money.
How easy is it to do? Very. Much easier than you would think. Flat jockeys probably have a tougher job as the races are shorter and there are no obstacles to overcome. How many times have you seen a naturally front running horse anchored out the back for a few races then suddenly reverts to front running next time and nothing gets past? This is just one example. In jumps races you can miss the start by a few lengths, take a pull for a few seconds and in a 10-15 runner field you are 30L off the pace from the get go and you realistically have no chance even if you wanted to win, it's worryingly easy though some jockeys are better at it than others! Also those with riding experience will themselves know there are various ways to unsettle a horse, or make out you are trying to push a horse on when actually you are doing the complete opposite. However, the fact is that jockeys have to do this. Their reward? Winners. They pull the horse three times successfully then they get the ride when it's go time, very simple really. That's the way the industry works. Form books are useful, but a book telling you when connections are trying would be even handier!
Horse fitness - Similar to the non trier in the sense that you are sending a horse to a race with no realistic chance of winning as it is not race fit or 'needs the run.' In my mind a horse coming back from a long absence will benefit from a race, of course it will. However, when trainer's say 'will need the run' are they just saying 'I haven't got him fit enough for this race?' I have thought about this for years and a few times the question of whether this 'needs the run' business is actually total nonsense has crossed my mind. That said I don't think it can be called a form of race fixing, after all 'prep runs' are commonplace and there are even designated prep races such as the Prix Niel for the Arc. However, sending a horse to the races mid season that hasn't been up the gallops in three weeks is totally wrong. Trainers have a responsibility to the sport to get their horses to a reasonable standard of fitness for a race, and any trainer that doesn't is being extremely deceitful and unfair in my opinion, especially if the reasoning for the lack of work is to ensure their horse doesn't win. Another form of the non trier, but the jockey can throw everything at the poor animal and it simply can't run to his mark due to the fact that it isn't race fit and shouldn't be running.
The race itself - This one is more alarming. Connections or jockeys conspiring to pre-arrange the result of a race and then riding accordingly. I like to think that this never happens but you look at some races and think that either some of the jockeys are stupid or just downright rubbish or alternatively; it is not possible for seasoned and experienced professionals to have acted in such a way by accident. 'Misjudging the pace' is a common one. We have all seen it before, we saw it earlier today at Chepstow. One horse blazes off in front by 20 odd lengths and the jockeys behind let him go. They presumably expect the leader to come back to them, but like today, sometimes they don't. The panic buttons were pressed behind but the winner had already flown. This is usually seen more in apprentice/amateur races due to lack of race-riding experience but with the likes of Richard Johnson and Barry Geraghty in behind you have to wonder how such professionals can make such a devastating mistake. The likelihood is that despite the price, the Skelton horse was better handicapped than the other jockeys thought, but Dan Skelton is banging in the winners and this should have been something that the other jockeys were thinking. That said it was an enterprising ride from Harry and I am not for one moment suggesting this race was in anyway fixed or pre-determined but such awful misjudgements do make people question integrity of the sport. I think the other jockeys should have to answer for such mistakes though the BHA think differently as no enquiries were made whatsoever. Make of that what you will.
A telephone call between Paul Mulrennan and Martin Dwyer discussing their rides in an upcoming race from 2010 emerged in the summer. Of course jockeys talk but if I remember rightly Dwyer was trying to convince Mulrennan that Mulrennan had no chance on his mount and he was going to back the mount of David Allan and was trying to convince Mulrennan to do the same. Jockeys aren't allowed to bet, so this is one cause for concern but if Mulrennan has backed another horse in the race, he isn't exactly going to be throwing the kitchen sink at his mount is he? David Allan's mount subsequently won the race. Remember that this is just the stuff that has come to light, no doubt there are many things the racing public may never know about. Is this race fixing? Even if Mulrennan's mount had no chance, is this still race fixing? Certainly an interesting argument.
The fact is that people talk. In the build up to a race, jockeys will talk to other jockeys and trainers and half the time any one jockey in a race has ridden for at least one other yard in the same race so they can get a pretty good idea of the likely outcome before a race and with the added knowledge of which horses are likely to be on a 'going day' you can see that it wouldn't be hard to have a pretty good outcome of the potential top three in a race. If the odd jockey is having a bet, which no doubt a few do, or at least their mates are then will they ride accordingly? Is this race fixing?
Sadly corruption does exist and as racing fans we know that. Most will only choose to notice it when their money is involved however, which to be honest makes me quite sad. Racing is our sport, we love it to death. The bad comes with the good like everything and as genuine racing fans, we put up with non triers and dodgy gambles because we could not live without racing, and more notably remember, racing could not live without us, the typical racing fan and punter who fund the industry.
It's a very interesting debate, it all depends what you consider to be race fixing. It has been exposed in many sports, boxing, football, snooker to name a few, all for one reason, money. More and more people in the game forgetting the reason they fell in love with it in the first place - the adrenaline rush of a race, the magnificent animal itself, the thoroughbred, the great people in the industry and the amazing moments and great days out racing can bring to an individual. They forget all of this for a quick buck and this is ironically the greatest 'fix' of them all.
Thanks for taking the time to read my ramblings. Please offer your own views and any future suggestions for 'racing debates' that you want to see discussed on blog.
@THTRacing
Sunday, 14 September 2014
NH horses to follow 2014/2015
The jumps season isn't far away at all and this year I have compiled a list of potentially promising horses to follow throughout the season, some with a little help from some knowledgable folk on Twitter. Some may be duds, some may win a few little races, a couple may make the festival and who knows, maybe one of the names below has the potential to be NH's next superstar. I think we missed one last season, especially with the absence of Sprinter Sacre. Of course we had the festival winners, most notably the unbeaten Faugheen and Vautor - will be exciting to watch their development this year. While the superb festival was marred by the tragic loss of equine life, most notably the very promising Our Conor, it is still the greatest racing spectacle on Earth and I am already counting down the days till we hear that roar in March. Lets hope a few of these make it to Prestbury Park. Have rated them one star to five stars which is just my opinion of their potential, also made a shortlist of must follows at the end.
MA DU FOU ***** - Looked to be struggling at short odds on debut when outpaced 5f out but steadily asserted and ended up storming clear when the penny dropped. Might not have beat much but will come on a ton for that and rates a very interesting prospect to go novice hurdling with over further. Rumoured to be the best Warren has had up his gallops. 32
BLAKLION *** - Looks a nice prospect for the Twiston-Davies yard bolting up on debut beating a well regarded sort by 15L. Showed some guts next time to win, beating a nice horse of McCain's then was put away until recent reappearance when winning in workmanlike but cosy enough fashion at Perth. Should see him at the Festival. 12132
NO DEAL ***** - Last seen in Jan 2013 winning a maiden hurdle at Ayr. A 7yo who has only had three starts due to injury but reportedly making up for lost time at home and being touted
as a potential Grand National horse at some point in the future. Should be ready to strike on overdue reapparance and go on to much better things. 41
VERAWAL *** - Very impressive on debut for top yard, big disappointment next time but can be forgiven; looks a lovely prospect and is one to keep very much on side this campaign and maybe in seasons to come. 3336F0
TELL US MORE ***** - Tanked his way through his sole run slamming his opposition. This son of Scorpion sold for nearly £300k at auction last year and a huge campaign is expected from him this year. 126
TAJ BADALANDABAD *** - Not 100% sure what he has beat so far but nothing has really got close in two starts to date, could be anything for the Pipe team this year. 41144
A VOS GARDES *** - Looks classy and is well regarded at home. Still immature and a big baby but world at his feet. Displayed a good attitude on his two starts to date and can go on to bigger and better things in time. 3122
FLETCHERS FLYER **** - This Harry Fry trained 6yo has only had two starts but looks a stayer judged on his very good runs so far and one to watch as he is gradually stepped up in trip. 3112
SUNTIEP **** - The less said about the ride he recieved at the festival the better but was clearly the best horse in the race and a campaign targetting the Grand National beckons.
KOOLALA *** - I really like this mare and she has always been well thought of at home. Hope to see her at the Festival in March as there is a lot more to come at 3m+ this season. 57
ONE TRACK MIND *** - Another exciting once raced youngster for up and coming trainer Warren Greatrex, always looked the winner and had what could be a few nice types in behind, promising. 1U41
GRANDE ANTARCTIQUE ** - A wildcard from a small yard but one that should be capable of winning races when sent novice hurdling this season, promising running on 2nds in two good soft ground bumpers and exciting for small trainer. U263
RUTHERGLEN *** - Won his first three juvenile hurdles before running a screamer in the Triumph, getting going too late on ground that was on the quick side for him, exciting season ahead.
GAITWAY *** - Green on debut vs experienced rival but showed great battling attitude to win and the pair 35L clear of the third, should go onto better things. 2
GREEN FLAG *** - Convinced this 7yo has a big prize in him this year, 3m2f-4m will be exactly what he wants, a genuine horse still with potential, won or placed in 13/16 of his races and he can win a big one in 2014/2015. Will see him at the festival too come March. 40P
UN ACE ** - Ran a belter at 100/1 in the Supreme in the festival just gone, staying on all too late from miles back. Will be sent chasing this season and will surely win a few races this season. F1120
COYABA **** - An exciting youngster,He was still a big baby last year but won two bumpers before coming up just short in the highest company. Should pick up some nice hurdles races this year for trainer going places. 262
VAGO COLLONGES **** - Ran in a listed and graded bumper in 2013 where he finished 2nd both times. Had last season off due to a few niggles here and there, but reportedly tearing up the Ditcheat gallops and is a serious prospect for novice hurdling this campaign. 22132
LE MERCUREY *** - Unraced in the UK, this frech import is the latest buzz horse at Paul Nicholls yard, probably going to be over-hyped, but one to keep a close eye on all the same this year. 737
Mullins unraced horses to watch out for:
MA DU FOU ***** - Looked to be struggling at short odds on debut when outpaced 5f out but steadily asserted and ended up storming clear when the penny dropped. Might not have beat much but will come on a ton for that and rates a very interesting prospect to go novice hurdling with over further. Rumoured to be the best Warren has had up his gallops. 32
BLAKLION *** - Looks a nice prospect for the Twiston-Davies yard bolting up on debut beating a well regarded sort by 15L. Showed some guts next time to win, beating a nice horse of McCain's then was put away until recent reappearance when winning in workmanlike but cosy enough fashion at Perth. Should see him at the Festival. 12132
NO DEAL ***** - Last seen in Jan 2013 winning a maiden hurdle at Ayr. A 7yo who has only had three starts due to injury but reportedly making up for lost time at home and being touted
as a potential Grand National horse at some point in the future. Should be ready to strike on overdue reapparance and go on to much better things. 41
VERAWAL *** - Very impressive on debut for top yard, big disappointment next time but can be forgiven; looks a lovely prospect and is one to keep very much on side this campaign and maybe in seasons to come. 3336F0
TELL US MORE ***** - Tanked his way through his sole run slamming his opposition. This son of Scorpion sold for nearly £300k at auction last year and a huge campaign is expected from him this year. 126
TAJ BADALANDABAD *** - Not 100% sure what he has beat so far but nothing has really got close in two starts to date, could be anything for the Pipe team this year. 41144
A VOS GARDES *** - Looks classy and is well regarded at home. Still immature and a big baby but world at his feet. Displayed a good attitude on his two starts to date and can go on to bigger and better things in time. 3122
FLETCHERS FLYER **** - This Harry Fry trained 6yo has only had two starts but looks a stayer judged on his very good runs so far and one to watch as he is gradually stepped up in trip. 3112
SUNTIEP **** - The less said about the ride he recieved at the festival the better but was clearly the best horse in the race and a campaign targetting the Grand National beckons.
KOOLALA *** - I really like this mare and she has always been well thought of at home. Hope to see her at the Festival in March as there is a lot more to come at 3m+ this season. 57
ONE TRACK MIND *** - Another exciting once raced youngster for up and coming trainer Warren Greatrex, always looked the winner and had what could be a few nice types in behind, promising. 1U41
GRANDE ANTARCTIQUE ** - A wildcard from a small yard but one that should be capable of winning races when sent novice hurdling this season, promising running on 2nds in two good soft ground bumpers and exciting for small trainer. U263
RUTHERGLEN *** - Won his first three juvenile hurdles before running a screamer in the Triumph, getting going too late on ground that was on the quick side for him, exciting season ahead.
GAITWAY *** - Green on debut vs experienced rival but showed great battling attitude to win and the pair 35L clear of the third, should go onto better things. 2
GREEN FLAG *** - Convinced this 7yo has a big prize in him this year, 3m2f-4m will be exactly what he wants, a genuine horse still with potential, won or placed in 13/16 of his races and he can win a big one in 2014/2015. Will see him at the festival too come March. 40P
UN ACE ** - Ran a belter at 100/1 in the Supreme in the festival just gone, staying on all too late from miles back. Will be sent chasing this season and will surely win a few races this season. F1120
COYABA **** - An exciting youngster,He was still a big baby last year but won two bumpers before coming up just short in the highest company. Should pick up some nice hurdles races this year for trainer going places. 262
VAGO COLLONGES **** - Ran in a listed and graded bumper in 2013 where he finished 2nd both times. Had last season off due to a few niggles here and there, but reportedly tearing up the Ditcheat gallops and is a serious prospect for novice hurdling this campaign. 22132
LE MERCUREY *** - Unraced in the UK, this frech import is the latest buzz horse at Paul Nicholls yard, probably going to be over-hyped, but one to keep a close eye on all the same this year. 737
Mullins unraced horses to watch out for:
TARARE
DOUVAN - 111
STONE HARD - 110
LONG DOG - 2
ARGENTINO - 0619
Must follows:
MA DU FOU - 32
NO DEAL - 41
TELL US MORE - 126
VAGO COLLONGES - 22132
COYABA - 272
Must be a few winners in there! Will be keeping track of results and updating this blog regularly. If you think we have missed one or two then dont hesitate to offer your suggestions @THTRacing
*** Results will be recorded and upated on here from 1st October 2014.***
Must follows:
MA DU FOU - 32
NO DEAL - 41
TELL US MORE - 126
VAGO COLLONGES - 22132
COYABA - 272
Must be a few winners in there! Will be keeping track of results and updating this blog regularly. If you think we have missed one or two then dont hesitate to offer your suggestions @THTRacing
*** Results will be recorded and upated on here from 1st October 2014.***
Tracker Form:
UF13341222323112111436123150U02214126434161112F736110264222132P02371119
Winners:
Blaklion 9/1 (Persian War - Grade 2)
Un Ace 3/1 (Class 3 Novice Chase)
One Track Mind Evs (Class 4 Nov Hdle)
Taj Badalandabad Evs (C4 Nov Hdle)
Fletchers Flyer 11/10 (C2 Nov Hdle)
Tell Us More 1/5 (Maiden Hurdle)
Douvan 8/15 (Novice Hurdle)
Un Ace 8/15 (Class 4 Novice Chase)
Taj Badalandabad 11/10 (C4 Nov Hdle)
Blaklion 9/4 (A' Bartlett Trial - Grade 2)
Stone Hard 4/7 (Bumper)
Fletchers Flyer 11/10 (Class 4 Nov Hdle)
Vago Collonges 2/1 (Class 4 Nov Hdle)
As Vos Gardes 5/1 (Maiden Hurdle)
Douvan 1/3 (Novice Hurdle - Grade 2)
Argentino 7/2 (Maiden Hurdle)
No Deal 2/1 (Class 4 Hcap Chase)
No Deal 2/1 (Class 4 Hcap Chase)
One Track Mind 3/10 (Class 4 Nov Hurdle)
Stone Hard 4/11 (Bumper)
Douvan 2/1 (Supreme Novices - Grade 1)
Stone Hard 4/11 (Bumper)
Douvan 2/1 (Supreme Novices - Grade 1)
LSP Running Total (win): - 2.71pts
Wednesday, 6 August 2014
Thursday 7th August
Not a great deal of time on side to write a detailed blog tonight so will just post selections with main reasons for backing.
IWAC 14.10 - King Of Paradise - 3lb below last winning mark, back in trip and dropped in grade, 14/1 big.
NAP 18.50 - Ventriloquist - Solid form lto, Kirby/Appleby 67% SR in turf maidens with the last four winning.
NB 19.30 - Streetcar To Stars - Getting massive weight allowance from older horses, best run at trip, unexposed, highly regarded, 5/2 on the skinny side but still a bit of value there.
Ed De Giles is a trainer in form and he has four tomorrow with excellent chances, backed them as singles and also in a yankee at small stakes for interest.
14.20 Living It Large 7/1
15.50 Men Don't Cry 8/1
18.15 Twenty One Choice 5/1
19.55 Croquembouche 5/1
Good luck if you follow.
Also there are some dodgy things going on tomorrow, Barney Curley may be connected to two horses returning from 500+ day breaks and they have already been heavily gambled. Keep up to date with what we think on Twitter throughout the day.
THT
IWAC 14.10 - King Of Paradise - 3lb below last winning mark, back in trip and dropped in grade, 14/1 big.
NAP 18.50 - Ventriloquist - Solid form lto, Kirby/Appleby 67% SR in turf maidens with the last four winning.
NB 19.30 - Streetcar To Stars - Getting massive weight allowance from older horses, best run at trip, unexposed, highly regarded, 5/2 on the skinny side but still a bit of value there.
Ed De Giles is a trainer in form and he has four tomorrow with excellent chances, backed them as singles and also in a yankee at small stakes for interest.
14.20 Living It Large 7/1
15.50 Men Don't Cry 8/1
18.15 Twenty One Choice 5/1
19.55 Croquembouche 5/1
Good luck if you follow.
Also there are some dodgy things going on tomorrow, Barney Curley may be connected to two horses returning from 500+ day breaks and they have already been heavily gambled. Keep up to date with what we think on Twitter throughout the day.
THT
Tuesday, 5 August 2014
Wednesday 6th August
Decent enough day yesterday with an impressive performance by our 6/1 winner and some place money at 10/1 and 33/1 to boot. NAP ran okay but really thought it should have won. Swordbearer just ran into one on the day but showed massively improved form, as did Gosden's back in third and they both have made their way into the tracker. Dire Straits did one of the two things I expected; win or come last. Unfotunately for us it was the latter despite it being backed into 3/1 fav from 7/1. I thought our NB had nicked the race as he led for 6.9 furlongs of the 7 but got nailed on the line. However, he held on for third beating the jolly and 33/1 place returns are always welcome. I did actually back the winner at 50.0 on the machine thanks to someone mentioning the form figures on polytrack seconds before the off, so I was a happy chappy anyway! On to today.
Candlelight ran a screamer on her all-weather debut last time only going down by a length to her half sister, the earlier highly tried 3/10 shot Magic Florence after missing the start by a few strides. The pair were over ten lengths clear of the remainder at the finish and in the context of this race that is strong form. Al Fareej is obviously well regarded and rates the main danger but looking at forecast SP's you have to side with this Charlie Hills filly. It's no surprise she stepped up massively on her turf debut when trying the polytrack last time as she is out of Zabedee, the first season all weather wonder stallion! ;-) His stats say 5/13 on the surface but in some races he has had multiple runners so it's actually 5/10 races won where he has had runners, and two of those not included came second. Those five wins have come in the last six races and he is my all-weather sire to follow this autumn and winter for 2yos. Will see what the price opens up at but all things considered, this filly looks to have an outstanding chance for a trainer whose last 18 runners in polytrack maidens have finished in the top four. NB.
Skytrain is another one I really fancy to be very tough to beat. The fact is that he won't be beaten if running up to the form of his last race at Goodwood, especially in this lower grade. He conceded weight to five horses rated up to 7lbs higher than him and beat them all bar the winner Extremity who was rated 84 and recieving 2lbs off Skytrain (78) so effectively he had 8lbs to find with that runner. The second was Buckstay who looks a nice horse, rated 86 and will go on to better things. The gallop was a frenetic one set by the horse that eventually finished tailed off and considering how close he was to the pace, it was a monumental effort to gamely hang on for third from better rated horses in behind. He took up the running a long way out and stayed on really willingly. What I am saying is he ran a race that suggests he is soon to return to winning ways. So how much was he raised for this huge run? 2lbs, 3lbs, 4lbs, maybe even 5lbs? Nope, he was dropped a pound in the handicap and has a mark of 77. With the rider's claim he is effectively off 74. Can you see why I really fancy it now? Not saying this isn't competitive but if the horse runs a simlar race to at Goodwood, nothing gets close. Worth mentioning he should handle the undulations of this unique course as he handled Goodwood just fine. Shame Joe Fanning goes to Pontefract to ride just the one in the maiden (wink wink) as if he was here I would be having one of my biggest bets of the season. However, dropped in grade with perfect conditons and off effectively 4lbs lower, there will be no excuses today as he has won five races off higher marks in the past. Price you ask? 7/4? 9/4? Wrong, 5/1 :O NAP.
TRACKER - Barye is of interest in the 7.40 returning to the All-Weather. He won his maiden in good style at Lingfield over 1f shorter and his sire has a 23% SR at Kempton. He ran a very solid race last time and the return to Polyrack for a yard in superb form makes 7/1 look value each way. Bishop Of Ruscombe is the danger especially as Probert has a 44% SR when riding for owner David Brownlow.
TRACKER - Third Dimension back on slower ground and upped in trip makes strong appeal over in Ireland. He won his maiden on easy ground before being sent to Royal Ascot for the Brittania when far from disgraced off 95. The ground was probably the excuse last time when backed into favouritism and on a slower surface he can recapture form with the step up to 10 furlongs likely to suit.
Two I will be keeping a close eye on in the markets are Poyle Vinnie and Toto Skyllachy. The former was hammered in the betting on stable debut when 3rd, ususally smart money and there may have been one or two faesible excuses and he is still lightly raced. Has the stable jockey on board this time too and at 4/1 might be worth a small punt. Toto Skyllachy makes debut for new yard but is undoubtedly well treated on past exploits. He was heavily punted last time and if in the mood he can do some damage eased in grade off 79. 12/1 opening show looks a fair price indeed. Keep an eye on Twitter as I will update when I can whether I have backed or not, as of this moment I am not offering them as selections, will leave them to you.
Selections:
NAP: 15.50 Skytrain 5/1
NB: 14.00 Candlelight 9/2
Tracker:
IWAC: 19.00 Third Dimension 6/1 ew
19.40 Barye 7/1 ew
Good Luck if you follow and remember to keep an eye on our tweets through the day for any selections, race information or potential lays. You can set up a notification everytime we tweet so you don't miss anything by going on our profile homepage, pressing the settings button which looks like a cog-wheel and pressing 'turn on notiffications.' Then again, why you would want me spamming your phone every five minutes I don't know! Good luck if you go with us today, more profit yesterday and long may it continue.
THT
Candlelight ran a screamer on her all-weather debut last time only going down by a length to her half sister, the earlier highly tried 3/10 shot Magic Florence after missing the start by a few strides. The pair were over ten lengths clear of the remainder at the finish and in the context of this race that is strong form. Al Fareej is obviously well regarded and rates the main danger but looking at forecast SP's you have to side with this Charlie Hills filly. It's no surprise she stepped up massively on her turf debut when trying the polytrack last time as she is out of Zabedee, the first season all weather wonder stallion! ;-) His stats say 5/13 on the surface but in some races he has had multiple runners so it's actually 5/10 races won where he has had runners, and two of those not included came second. Those five wins have come in the last six races and he is my all-weather sire to follow this autumn and winter for 2yos. Will see what the price opens up at but all things considered, this filly looks to have an outstanding chance for a trainer whose last 18 runners in polytrack maidens have finished in the top four. NB.
Skytrain is another one I really fancy to be very tough to beat. The fact is that he won't be beaten if running up to the form of his last race at Goodwood, especially in this lower grade. He conceded weight to five horses rated up to 7lbs higher than him and beat them all bar the winner Extremity who was rated 84 and recieving 2lbs off Skytrain (78) so effectively he had 8lbs to find with that runner. The second was Buckstay who looks a nice horse, rated 86 and will go on to better things. The gallop was a frenetic one set by the horse that eventually finished tailed off and considering how close he was to the pace, it was a monumental effort to gamely hang on for third from better rated horses in behind. He took up the running a long way out and stayed on really willingly. What I am saying is he ran a race that suggests he is soon to return to winning ways. So how much was he raised for this huge run? 2lbs, 3lbs, 4lbs, maybe even 5lbs? Nope, he was dropped a pound in the handicap and has a mark of 77. With the rider's claim he is effectively off 74. Can you see why I really fancy it now? Not saying this isn't competitive but if the horse runs a simlar race to at Goodwood, nothing gets close. Worth mentioning he should handle the undulations of this unique course as he handled Goodwood just fine. Shame Joe Fanning goes to Pontefract to ride just the one in the maiden (wink wink) as if he was here I would be having one of my biggest bets of the season. However, dropped in grade with perfect conditons and off effectively 4lbs lower, there will be no excuses today as he has won five races off higher marks in the past. Price you ask? 7/4? 9/4? Wrong, 5/1 :O NAP.
TRACKER - Barye is of interest in the 7.40 returning to the All-Weather. He won his maiden in good style at Lingfield over 1f shorter and his sire has a 23% SR at Kempton. He ran a very solid race last time and the return to Polyrack for a yard in superb form makes 7/1 look value each way. Bishop Of Ruscombe is the danger especially as Probert has a 44% SR when riding for owner David Brownlow.
TRACKER - Third Dimension back on slower ground and upped in trip makes strong appeal over in Ireland. He won his maiden on easy ground before being sent to Royal Ascot for the Brittania when far from disgraced off 95. The ground was probably the excuse last time when backed into favouritism and on a slower surface he can recapture form with the step up to 10 furlongs likely to suit.
Two I will be keeping a close eye on in the markets are Poyle Vinnie and Toto Skyllachy. The former was hammered in the betting on stable debut when 3rd, ususally smart money and there may have been one or two faesible excuses and he is still lightly raced. Has the stable jockey on board this time too and at 4/1 might be worth a small punt. Toto Skyllachy makes debut for new yard but is undoubtedly well treated on past exploits. He was heavily punted last time and if in the mood he can do some damage eased in grade off 79. 12/1 opening show looks a fair price indeed. Keep an eye on Twitter as I will update when I can whether I have backed or not, as of this moment I am not offering them as selections, will leave them to you.
Selections:
NAP: 15.50 Skytrain 5/1
NB: 14.00 Candlelight 9/2
Tracker:
IWAC: 19.00 Third Dimension 6/1 ew
19.40 Barye 7/1 ew
Good Luck if you follow and remember to keep an eye on our tweets through the day for any selections, race information or potential lays. You can set up a notification everytime we tweet so you don't miss anything by going on our profile homepage, pressing the settings button which looks like a cog-wheel and pressing 'turn on notiffications.' Then again, why you would want me spamming your phone every five minutes I don't know! Good luck if you go with us today, more profit yesterday and long may it continue.
THT
Monday, 4 August 2014
Tuesday 5th August
Very good start yesterday with our IWAC going in at 10/1. We made a big deal of the sire stats on blog and they paid off, Zebedee offspring now 3/3 over 6f on polytrack and a foal by the same sire also took a race later on the card with a half sibling in behind in 2nd. He is a sire to follow this all wether season over autumn and winter. Anyway we also landed a good lay posted on Twitter but after that the NAP could only manage 3rd and Baars Causeway still can't win so a bit of a disappointing end but more profit and we increased our lead on the tipping blog for August. Rinsed the Kempton card again tomorrow and our thoughts are below.
18.00 - Ajig has won at the course and went close last time but has been beaten a cumulative total of over 30 lengths on her two C/D runs. One or two potential improvers in here but I'm going with the more solid option in the shape of Plucky Dip. The only course and distance winner in the field, the John Ryan trained gelding arguably ran a career best last time in a much higher grade when finishing 2L behind a Haggas horse that has since won on the bridle off a mark of 83. His official mark is 62, though this is a Classified Stakes and he receives 7lbs from the 4yos as do the other 3yos in race. However he may prove a bit better than this grade in time and will hopefully be a nice price when the markets are formed. The jockey booking of in form William Buick also looks significant who had a double here from two rides yesterday. A very solid selection to start the card off I think and today's NAP.
18.30 - Godolphin run two here and I am going to have a chancey play on the white cap Momayyaz. She ran on well when the penny dropped on debut though the stablemate Rapprochement had already flown to win by a devastating 11L. However that horse has since been pitched into Group 3 company at Goodwood when well beaten after being very badly hampered and eased down and interesting to see where he goes next as is clearly highly regarded. Anyway Momayyaz should handle the surface looking at her pedigree and should have come on a lot for the debut run. The capable young rider can claim a very handy 7lbs here which may make the difference and with the trainers 'second strings' beating the first string 37% of the time in the past year, the white cap might be coming home in front of the blue once more for a trainer who has a superb SR of 30% at Kempton. Another interesting stat is his runners who finished second on debut on turf then switched to AW for second run have a 49% SR with 24 of the last 25 runners coming 1st or 2nd, so I think we can at least be hopeful of a run for our money. Just a chancey one though as I have said, forecast price is 6/1 and will at least be a good each way bet to nothing though a few unexposed ones in here.
19.00 - James Fanshawe is a man in form and had a winner and a nose second here yesterday. His handicap debutants perform exceptionally well and in this weak looking race, Swordbearer catches the eye. He ran his best maiden run over C/D and has to be of interest at 15/2 if showing improvement for handicap debut off what could be a very lenient mark of 70. The main danger is Gosden's.
20.30 - Dire Straits makes appeal for a yard in form in the shape of Chris Wall. The young lad in the saddle has also had a great season and the pair have a 33% SR in AW handicaps. He takes off 3lbs meaning this horse has been let loose off 60 and is stepped up significantly in trip from a mile to a mile and a half and being by Teofilo, this is sure to bring about improvement. While having shown little so far this colt is related to AW winners and the surface should suit on his polytrack debut and despite being short enough at 7/1 based on form alone, that price could look silly if today is the day.
21.00 Good race to end and am sure many will be on Sleep Walk who could be well ahead of the handicapper but I fancy taking a chance on a horse that has somehow been priced up at 33/1. Meritocracy is one of two C/D winners in the field but his recent turf form has tailed off slightly. However he has been running in better races of late and returning to the AW will be the key to improved form today I think. He is now off 82, which is 3lb below his last winning mark (over C/D) and his course form reads 311, that 3rd when only going down by a length on debut. The biggest danger is Dinneratmidnight for me, I think there are doubts about the surface for the jolly and needs to improve against horses rated up to 20lb higher though that said, she won very cheekily last time. The unexposed ones worry me a tad but if this horse is sparked by the return to all-weather then this is one of the best 33/1 shots you will find all week.
All today's are chancey to be honest except the NAP which I think is quite solid. A maiden punt and two horses that need to improve for handicap debut could well be hit or miss before finishing with the each way bet of the week, in my humble opinion at least.
18.00 Plucky Dip 3/1 NAP - 3rd
18.30 Momayyaz 6/1 ew - WINNER
19.00 Sword Bearer 10/1 ew - 2nd
20.30 Dire Straits 7/1 ew IWAC
21.00 Meritocracy 33/1 ew NB - 3rd
One from the tracker too in the shape of Mecca's Mirage in the 18.45 but not backing as I am sure I have heard somewhere that she needs a wind op so best left alone until hearing differently though one to maybe monitor in the market anyway just in case.
Good Luck if you follow, gone with smaller stakes today as generally quite speculative selections, so go easy.
THT
18.00 - Ajig has won at the course and went close last time but has been beaten a cumulative total of over 30 lengths on her two C/D runs. One or two potential improvers in here but I'm going with the more solid option in the shape of Plucky Dip. The only course and distance winner in the field, the John Ryan trained gelding arguably ran a career best last time in a much higher grade when finishing 2L behind a Haggas horse that has since won on the bridle off a mark of 83. His official mark is 62, though this is a Classified Stakes and he receives 7lbs from the 4yos as do the other 3yos in race. However he may prove a bit better than this grade in time and will hopefully be a nice price when the markets are formed. The jockey booking of in form William Buick also looks significant who had a double here from two rides yesterday. A very solid selection to start the card off I think and today's NAP.
18.30 - Godolphin run two here and I am going to have a chancey play on the white cap Momayyaz. She ran on well when the penny dropped on debut though the stablemate Rapprochement had already flown to win by a devastating 11L. However that horse has since been pitched into Group 3 company at Goodwood when well beaten after being very badly hampered and eased down and interesting to see where he goes next as is clearly highly regarded. Anyway Momayyaz should handle the surface looking at her pedigree and should have come on a lot for the debut run. The capable young rider can claim a very handy 7lbs here which may make the difference and with the trainers 'second strings' beating the first string 37% of the time in the past year, the white cap might be coming home in front of the blue once more for a trainer who has a superb SR of 30% at Kempton. Another interesting stat is his runners who finished second on debut on turf then switched to AW for second run have a 49% SR with 24 of the last 25 runners coming 1st or 2nd, so I think we can at least be hopeful of a run for our money. Just a chancey one though as I have said, forecast price is 6/1 and will at least be a good each way bet to nothing though a few unexposed ones in here.
19.00 - James Fanshawe is a man in form and had a winner and a nose second here yesterday. His handicap debutants perform exceptionally well and in this weak looking race, Swordbearer catches the eye. He ran his best maiden run over C/D and has to be of interest at 15/2 if showing improvement for handicap debut off what could be a very lenient mark of 70. The main danger is Gosden's.
20.30 - Dire Straits makes appeal for a yard in form in the shape of Chris Wall. The young lad in the saddle has also had a great season and the pair have a 33% SR in AW handicaps. He takes off 3lbs meaning this horse has been let loose off 60 and is stepped up significantly in trip from a mile to a mile and a half and being by Teofilo, this is sure to bring about improvement. While having shown little so far this colt is related to AW winners and the surface should suit on his polytrack debut and despite being short enough at 7/1 based on form alone, that price could look silly if today is the day.
21.00 Good race to end and am sure many will be on Sleep Walk who could be well ahead of the handicapper but I fancy taking a chance on a horse that has somehow been priced up at 33/1. Meritocracy is one of two C/D winners in the field but his recent turf form has tailed off slightly. However he has been running in better races of late and returning to the AW will be the key to improved form today I think. He is now off 82, which is 3lb below his last winning mark (over C/D) and his course form reads 311, that 3rd when only going down by a length on debut. The biggest danger is Dinneratmidnight for me, I think there are doubts about the surface for the jolly and needs to improve against horses rated up to 20lb higher though that said, she won very cheekily last time. The unexposed ones worry me a tad but if this horse is sparked by the return to all-weather then this is one of the best 33/1 shots you will find all week.
All today's are chancey to be honest except the NAP which I think is quite solid. A maiden punt and two horses that need to improve for handicap debut could well be hit or miss before finishing with the each way bet of the week, in my humble opinion at least.
18.00 Plucky Dip 3/1 NAP - 3rd
18.30 Momayyaz 6/1 ew - WINNER
19.00 Sword Bearer 10/1 ew - 2nd
20.30 Dire Straits 7/1 ew IWAC
21.00 Meritocracy 33/1 ew NB - 3rd
One from the tracker too in the shape of Mecca's Mirage in the 18.45 but not backing as I am sure I have heard somewhere that she needs a wind op so best left alone until hearing differently though one to maybe monitor in the market anyway just in case.
Good Luck if you follow, gone with smaller stakes today as generally quite speculative selections, so go easy.
THT
Sunday, 3 August 2014
Monday 4th August
Thankfully I went half stakes yesterday as it turned out to be a typical Sunday, don't think I will punt Sunday's anymore unless I am really sweet on something. We are top of the pile on Niall's blog and intend to stay there this month. 8/8 months ended in profit on there and with the bright start to this month we have made it a good chance of 9/9. Tomorrow's selections and the reasoning below. I love punting at Kempton, always seem to do well there and while the card isn't awe inspiring tomorrow I fancy one or two.
The first of those is Spring Loaded in the opening maiden. I don't like guessy punts like this usually and I rarely bet in maidens but this runner catches the eye. Ran below market expectations on debut when well punted finishing a close up last of four. The winner of the race and the 2nd have since ran well again, the 2nd subsequently winning and then running well in a higher grade handicap. This is a maiden but it looks weak and very winnable, especially as the step up to 6f is sure to suit as he wasn't given a hard time by Ryan Moore on debut yet finished well when the penny dropped. However the real reason I am especially sweet on this runner is stats based. Firstly jockey/trainer combination is 29% on the all weather which is eye catching but the sire stats are what got me. 33% SR on the all weather for £1 LSP of £47. He is a first season sire making a big impact on the polytrack and his foals are 2/2 at 6f on the all weather. At a forecasted price of 10/1, with the debut under his belt, step up in trip and tackling a new surface, I will be having a right old bash each way if he opens anything like that.
A nice little handicap is the 15.45. Messila Star is a worthy favourite based on his last run alone behind subsequent listed runner up Tenor, that's good form indeed in the context of this 0-75 race. Anya for Henry Candy will surely be winning soon off 72 but hopefully it isn't today as I'm taking a chance on Lady Cecil's Equitable. This son of Dansili was backed as if defeat was out of the question on debut returning an even money favourite when leading close home after taking a wide course throughout. The way he finished his race was very encouraging. Three horses behind subsequently have won and now rated between 75-80 so off 75 tomorrow you would be hopeful he could do some damage. That said, he actually has a generous 7lbs weight for age allowance meaning his mark is effectively 68 which judged on that debut form, he is very capable of winning off. He has however since ran on turf three times and has ran poorly. I won't make excuses but they were on different ground over a few different trips on turf, but it's the return to the polytrack that has got me interested today. Going right handed shouldn't be a problem as his sire's offspring perform marginally better right handed and the incredible strike rates of the jockey/trainer on the polytrack is what drew me in. Lady Cecil and James Doyle polytrack form reads 13312211242512 for a 36% win SR and 86% place SR. They mean business when they team up on the artifical surface and with this horse returning to the polytrack off a mark he can exploit, 11/1 looks big and I'll be having a little go each way though the favourite is the one to beat.
I think the handicapper has made a terrible mistake only increasing Lady Horatia's handicap rating by a 1lb for her last race. I have had a good look through the form and I am convinced that 85 underestimates this lovely big grey filly. Let's look at the last race. A 0-95 at Newmarket. Despite pulling Dwyer's arms out throughout the first half of a slowly run race, she stayed on well from the midfield to finish a solid third behind Athenian who went up to 96 for that win. She also beat a Godolhin horse rated 94 who has since ran a solid race in the Stewards Cup. The race before she got a good gallop which she probably enjoys and stormed home very well inside the final furlong after being switched and not having the clearest of runs almost catching the winner who went up to 92 for that win and also ran at Goodwood earlier this week. Worth noting that run was after missing the break by five lengths. She is dropped in grade today, is unexposed on the surface (but has run a solid race on it before) and unexposed at 6f and I think she is a cut above this field though we haven't seen the best of one or two of these to be fair. That said she has the best form on offer and if settling a bit better with a decent gallop that hopefully will be set by Bowstar, she has a favourite's chance. I think 9/4 is about fair and maybe even that is generous? 4/1 available in a few places and that is value to me, today's NAP and it's a strong one.
Find it quite miraculous that Baars Causeway hasn't yet managed to win a race. She is again dropped in class and certainly has the right man in the saddle and she really should be shedding her maiden tag in this desperate affair. The two dangers are the handicap debutants but stats for those aren't inspiring and at this level it is always a bit guessy but surely the filly won't find a better opportunity. Her European pedigree is certainly interesting if not inspiring but she ran some huge races as a 2yo. She was 3L behind dual Group 3 winning J Wonder in a maiden at Newbury, finished 2L behind Group 3 winning Amazing Maria as well has having the beating of many horses now rated in the 80's and 90's. She went down by a short head and half a length in two races in her first year but hasn't fired at all in her second season. That short head defeat was here over the 7f in this class and despite running nothing more than an okay race when last here, she is now on a very exploitable mark of 63 with conditions optimum and very beatable opposition. Not having her out the places and I fancy her to win this. 11/1.
Selections:
14.15 Spring Loaded 10/1 ew - WINNER
15.45 Equitable 11/1 ew - NR
17.15 Lady Horatia 4/1 NAP
17.50 Baars Causeway 11/1 NB
Good Luck if you like the look of any of these and take the plunge with us.
THT
The first of those is Spring Loaded in the opening maiden. I don't like guessy punts like this usually and I rarely bet in maidens but this runner catches the eye. Ran below market expectations on debut when well punted finishing a close up last of four. The winner of the race and the 2nd have since ran well again, the 2nd subsequently winning and then running well in a higher grade handicap. This is a maiden but it looks weak and very winnable, especially as the step up to 6f is sure to suit as he wasn't given a hard time by Ryan Moore on debut yet finished well when the penny dropped. However the real reason I am especially sweet on this runner is stats based. Firstly jockey/trainer combination is 29% on the all weather which is eye catching but the sire stats are what got me. 33% SR on the all weather for £1 LSP of £47. He is a first season sire making a big impact on the polytrack and his foals are 2/2 at 6f on the all weather. At a forecasted price of 10/1, with the debut under his belt, step up in trip and tackling a new surface, I will be having a right old bash each way if he opens anything like that.
A nice little handicap is the 15.45. Messila Star is a worthy favourite based on his last run alone behind subsequent listed runner up Tenor, that's good form indeed in the context of this 0-75 race. Anya for Henry Candy will surely be winning soon off 72 but hopefully it isn't today as I'm taking a chance on Lady Cecil's Equitable. This son of Dansili was backed as if defeat was out of the question on debut returning an even money favourite when leading close home after taking a wide course throughout. The way he finished his race was very encouraging. Three horses behind subsequently have won and now rated between 75-80 so off 75 tomorrow you would be hopeful he could do some damage. That said, he actually has a generous 7lbs weight for age allowance meaning his mark is effectively 68 which judged on that debut form, he is very capable of winning off. He has however since ran on turf three times and has ran poorly. I won't make excuses but they were on different ground over a few different trips on turf, but it's the return to the polytrack that has got me interested today. Going right handed shouldn't be a problem as his sire's offspring perform marginally better right handed and the incredible strike rates of the jockey/trainer on the polytrack is what drew me in. Lady Cecil and James Doyle polytrack form reads 13312211242512 for a 36% win SR and 86% place SR. They mean business when they team up on the artifical surface and with this horse returning to the polytrack off a mark he can exploit, 11/1 looks big and I'll be having a little go each way though the favourite is the one to beat.
I think the handicapper has made a terrible mistake only increasing Lady Horatia's handicap rating by a 1lb for her last race. I have had a good look through the form and I am convinced that 85 underestimates this lovely big grey filly. Let's look at the last race. A 0-95 at Newmarket. Despite pulling Dwyer's arms out throughout the first half of a slowly run race, she stayed on well from the midfield to finish a solid third behind Athenian who went up to 96 for that win. She also beat a Godolhin horse rated 94 who has since ran a solid race in the Stewards Cup. The race before she got a good gallop which she probably enjoys and stormed home very well inside the final furlong after being switched and not having the clearest of runs almost catching the winner who went up to 92 for that win and also ran at Goodwood earlier this week. Worth noting that run was after missing the break by five lengths. She is dropped in grade today, is unexposed on the surface (but has run a solid race on it before) and unexposed at 6f and I think she is a cut above this field though we haven't seen the best of one or two of these to be fair. That said she has the best form on offer and if settling a bit better with a decent gallop that hopefully will be set by Bowstar, she has a favourite's chance. I think 9/4 is about fair and maybe even that is generous? 4/1 available in a few places and that is value to me, today's NAP and it's a strong one.
Find it quite miraculous that Baars Causeway hasn't yet managed to win a race. She is again dropped in class and certainly has the right man in the saddle and she really should be shedding her maiden tag in this desperate affair. The two dangers are the handicap debutants but stats for those aren't inspiring and at this level it is always a bit guessy but surely the filly won't find a better opportunity. Her European pedigree is certainly interesting if not inspiring but she ran some huge races as a 2yo. She was 3L behind dual Group 3 winning J Wonder in a maiden at Newbury, finished 2L behind Group 3 winning Amazing Maria as well has having the beating of many horses now rated in the 80's and 90's. She went down by a short head and half a length in two races in her first year but hasn't fired at all in her second season. That short head defeat was here over the 7f in this class and despite running nothing more than an okay race when last here, she is now on a very exploitable mark of 63 with conditions optimum and very beatable opposition. Not having her out the places and I fancy her to win this. 11/1.
Selections:
14.15 Spring Loaded 10/1 ew - WINNER
15.45 Equitable 11/1 ew - NR
17.15 Lady Horatia 4/1 NAP
17.50 Baars Causeway 11/1 NB
Good Luck if you like the look of any of these and take the plunge with us.
THT
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