Another really solid day yesterday with Thunderball the big winner at 16/1, but he was available at 25/1 for the race last week when we tipped him when subsequently the meeting was rescheduled. Two 7/1 winners including the impressive Buckland stormed home and Animal Kingdom won the Dubai World Cup at 11/2, which I mentioned on Twitter. An 8/1 score prediction on the football (2-1 Spurs) also came in so a really good day overall. If only Robin Hood's Bay had managed to win we would have landed a massive 27/1 double too and I regret not backing Loyaute as I thought he would win after backing him the last twice but thought he was a tad short, should have stuck him in the double - hindsight! Anyway on to Sunday; again please excuse the fact there are no write ups I simply have no time to go into detail at the weekends, which is why I rarely used to post my selections on Saturday's and Sunday's!
Singles:
15.50 Musselburgh - Royal Peculiar @ 7/1 e/w
16.00 Plumpton - Balder Success @ 8/1 e/w
Each Way double on two selections above:
Pays at 71/1.
Fairyhouse Double:
14.25 Annie Power
14.55 Defy Logic
Pays at 9/2.
Fairyhouse Treble:
Add Mount Benbulben (16.30).
Pays at 19.5/1.
Multi-Sports Accumulator:
14.10 Towcester - Thinger Licht
14.25 Fairyhouse - Annie Power
14.55 Fairyhouse - Defy Logic
Aston Villa/Liverpool BTTS
St Mirre/Celtic Over 2.5 goals
Pays at 35/1.
Good Luck all, don't usually bet in Ireland but some cracking high class races at Fairyhouse and could not resist.
THT
Saturday, 30 March 2013
Saturday 30th March
Solid day on Thursday with some nice priced winners and plenty of decent place returns. We were agonisingly close to a huge 39/1 double but Ishikawa was just too strong for Exceedexpectations and he came home a close second. Our Martin Keighley double got off to a flyer with the Fox's Decree winning well under a powerful Popham drive at 8/1, for a smaller yard in fine fettle. I was actually more confident with the other selection, Sky Calling but very unfortunately he picked up a small injury on his way to the track which was a huge disappointment as the double would have paid out at 70/1+ should he have gone on to run and win.
But oh well, on to Saturday where there are some great cards to get stuck into. Please excuse the fact there are no write ups, you can find my Doncaster explanations from last week if you scroll far enough down on the blog. We always aim to provide detailed reasoning as it helps followers get an understanding of our selections and the thinking behind the choices. Just have not got the time today and nursing a terrible hangover, but the racing will certainly cheer me up a bit! The selections are as follows, advise smaller stakes if you follow as lots of selections today as you might expect with so much high quality racing going on. Please note some prices are from last week when we first advised them.
13.20 Doncaster - Jamaican Bolt @ 10/1 e/w
13.20 Doncaster - Thunderball @ 25/1 e/w WON
13.50 Doncaster - Nameitwhatyoulike @ 10/1 e/w
14.10 Newton Abbot - Samingarry @ 10/1 e/w
14.30 Doncaster - Captain Ramius @ 7/1 e/w Placed
14.40 Haydock - Cloudy Bob @ 10/1 e/w
14.55 Kempton - Buckland @ 7/1 e/w WON
15.05 Doncaster - Lahaag @ 10/1 e/w
15.05 Doncaster - Bancnuanaheireann @ 33/1 e/w
16.25 Haydock - Liberty Court @ 7/1 e/w
Kempton Double: Robin Hood's Bay (14.20) and Buckland (14.55) pays @ 27/1
Sydney Double: Sydney Paget (15.15) and Carry on Sydney (15.35) @ 35/1
Meydan each way double: Sajjhaa and Shuruq @ 80/1
Each-Way Lucky 15:
Nameitwhatyoulike, Samingarry, Cloudy Bob, Lahaag.
Pays £5k+ for a 0.25 e/w stake.
Good Luck all. Might have a few other fancies that I will mention on twitter later, keep an eye out.
THT
But oh well, on to Saturday where there are some great cards to get stuck into. Please excuse the fact there are no write ups, you can find my Doncaster explanations from last week if you scroll far enough down on the blog. We always aim to provide detailed reasoning as it helps followers get an understanding of our selections and the thinking behind the choices. Just have not got the time today and nursing a terrible hangover, but the racing will certainly cheer me up a bit! The selections are as follows, advise smaller stakes if you follow as lots of selections today as you might expect with so much high quality racing going on. Please note some prices are from last week when we first advised them.
13.20 Doncaster - Jamaican Bolt @ 10/1 e/w
13.20 Doncaster - Thunderball @ 25/1 e/w WON
13.50 Doncaster - Nameitwhatyoulike @ 10/1 e/w
14.10 Newton Abbot - Samingarry @ 10/1 e/w
14.30 Doncaster - Captain Ramius @ 7/1 e/w Placed
14.40 Haydock - Cloudy Bob @ 10/1 e/w
14.55 Kempton - Buckland @ 7/1 e/w WON
15.05 Doncaster - Lahaag @ 10/1 e/w
15.05 Doncaster - Bancnuanaheireann @ 33/1 e/w
16.25 Haydock - Liberty Court @ 7/1 e/w
Kempton Double: Robin Hood's Bay (14.20) and Buckland (14.55) pays @ 27/1
Sydney Double: Sydney Paget (15.15) and Carry on Sydney (15.35) @ 35/1
Meydan each way double: Sajjhaa and Shuruq @ 80/1
Each-Way Lucky 15:
Nameitwhatyoulike, Samingarry, Cloudy Bob, Lahaag.
Pays £5k+ for a 0.25 e/w stake.
Good Luck all. Might have a few other fancies that I will mention on twitter later, keep an eye out.
THT
Thursday, 28 March 2013
Thursday 28th March
A slow start yesterday but things gradually picked up and we ended up with three winners, most impressively the 4/1 shot Compton Silver who bolted up to win as he liked. We also landed each way money on 20/1 shot Desert Strike and more impressively, The Thirsty Bricky returned at 33/1 by running a big race to come third. Our NAP was the last of our picks to turn a decent day into a very profitable one and he looked all over the winner but was caught by the fast finishing Big Sylv who rallied in the late stages to pip our selection right at the line on the nod. Short head the official margin - very frustrating. However, back on track of sorts after a woeful Tuesday which is encouraging. Shame I didn't do the two big prices I mentioned in the each way double, picked the wrong two, but very happy with their runs nonetheless. Makes a big difference when you have jockeys on board that push the horse out like Joe Fanning did on Desert Strike to ensure e/w money for people like us! Anyway on to today.
Not a great deal of inspiration in too many of the cards today but we have found a few good value picks that are worth a few quid, smaller stakes than usual however.
Singles:
14.40 Wolves - Mazij @ 4/1 WON
14.55 Southwell - The Fox's Decree @ 8/1 e/w WON
15.50 Wolves - Beau Select @ 10/1 e/w
16.20 Wolves - Exceedexpectations @ 7/1 e/w Placed
16.20 Wolves (coverbet) - Honey Of A Kitten @ 12/1 e/w
16.55 Wolves - Local Singer @ 11/2 e/w Placed
17.10 Southwell - Sky Calling @ 7/1 e/w NR
Doubles:
16.00 Ffos Las - The Bear Trap and 17.40 Southwell - Dr Livingstone @ 11/2
Martin Keighley each way double: The Fox's Decree (WON)/Sky Calling (NR) @ 71/1
Luke Morris value double: Mazij (WON)/Exceedexpectations (Placed) @ 39/1
Other interesting runners whom I have not decided whether to bet or just watch are:
16.10 Ludlow - Niceonefrankie @ 9/2
16.30 Ffos Las - Nash Point @ 10/1
16.40 Ludlow - Leviathan/Alwaystheoptimist
17.10 Southwell - Dubaianswer @ 5/1
Good Luck today guys, lots of value around.
THT
Not a great deal of inspiration in too many of the cards today but we have found a few good value picks that are worth a few quid, smaller stakes than usual however.
Singles:
14.40 Wolves - Mazij @ 4/1 WON
14.55 Southwell - The Fox's Decree @ 8/1 e/w WON
15.50 Wolves - Beau Select @ 10/1 e/w
16.20 Wolves - Exceedexpectations @ 7/1 e/w Placed
16.20 Wolves (coverbet) - Honey Of A Kitten @ 12/1 e/w
16.55 Wolves - Local Singer @ 11/2 e/w Placed
17.10 Southwell - Sky Calling @ 7/1 e/w NR
Doubles:
16.00 Ffos Las - The Bear Trap and 17.40 Southwell - Dr Livingstone @ 11/2
Martin Keighley each way double: The Fox's Decree (WON)/Sky Calling (NR) @ 71/1
Luke Morris value double: Mazij (WON)/Exceedexpectations (Placed) @ 39/1
Other interesting runners whom I have not decided whether to bet or just watch are:
16.10 Ludlow - Niceonefrankie @ 9/2
16.30 Ffos Las - Nash Point @ 10/1
16.40 Ludlow - Leviathan/Alwaystheoptimist
17.10 Southwell - Dubaianswer @ 5/1
Good Luck today guys, lots of value around.
THT
Wednesday, 27 March 2013
Wednesday 27th March
Surprise surprise an absolute shocker yesterday after a huge day on Monday, always happens. However this one was all the more disappointing as the rides on both our NAP and NB were appalling. I am not a sore loser by any means but it doesn't make sense that Lily Edge was ridden prominently when every race she has come off the back, the massive drift from 5/2 to 7/1 just makes you question it more, as someone mentioned to me on Twitter, it was ran to lose and big time. This goes on all the time all over the country, you just have to hope you don't end up on the wrong side as we did today, but there is nothing we could have done.
I was arguably more frustrated with the ride on our NAP as I have never been a fan of Hayley Turner and mentioned that when explaining the selection and for her to give a ride like that was shocking. I have seen it with her before, even the other day on odds on chance Balatina, she just gives up. Ihtikar could have won that race in my opinion. Basically Hayley just gave him a light slap on the neck on the turn, that was it. A little slap then just pushed him out for the rest of the race when he had every chance, didn't pick up the whip at all. A young inexperienced horse needs a disciplined and professional jockey on board and the jockey has to make the horse know why it is there, to run as fast as he can. I was very angry at the ride and will never back any of her mounts again. Call me a sore loser but I said before the race I don't rate her and to be honest I was foolish for picking one of her rides in the first place.
All that said our other three picks weren't good enough as Desert Donkey looked the winner but the winning post came too late and two fast finishers had already flashed by. He beat the odds on favourite that I was never convinced by pretty well though so he can take credit from the race, a step back in trip may suit him or coming off the pace a bit more rather than riding prominently. Wordiness had a little bit of bad luck in running and to be honest the ride was a bit under par from Robert Tart but the horse wasn't good enough anyway as he went down by a short head, which summed our day up nicely.
However we remain defiant as ever and hope to bounce back today. Four meetings to get stuck into, so here goes:
Lingfield 13.30 - Athletic is the warm favourite for this one but Kempton is more his track and he usually runs over further than this. However he did try 7f a few starts back and won, more comfortably than the winning margin suggests too. However what was he beating? Not much. We prefer Tenbridge who ran a big race last time and is 3lb lower today. He was 50/1 last time over at Wolves, a more similar track to Lingfield than Kempton. The winner, Maggie Pink ran a decent race last time coming 2nd to Putin, okay maybe that isn't so great! However, at 3lb lower and in a weaker race, I think Tenbridge will be hard to beat today at a decent enough price.
Lingfield 14.30 - Homeboy is in the form of his life and loves it at Lingers. This race looks weaker than his recent challenges and he gave Noverre to Go a fright the other day when he got within a length staying on better than the rest. Short, but can't see past him, he should win with something in hand and will go into a multiple or two.
Lingfield 16.05 - Dorothy's Dancing steps up a grade but with Ned Curtis's claim taken into account she is running off a mark of 60 today. She won last time off a mark of 65 but faces higher rated rivals today. You get the impression that the trainer is trying to get one more big run out of her today before the handicapper catches up but in a competitive race she won't be having any of my money on her, though looks the likely winner.
Lingfield 17.15 - Kent Ragstone won as she liked last time beating the field by 6 lenghts or more. Then again what was she racing against really? The fav pulled up injured and the rest were uninspiring. However, today's race doesn't look like it will be beyond her and she will have learned a lot from last week's run. I wouldn't be surprised if she was beaten but then equally I wouldn't be surprised if she bolted up again today. At 4/7, even in a multiple she doesn't look good value for a horse with only one run under her belt.
Southwell 15.10 - Caldercruix has the strongest form by a mile and I am surprised he isn't shorter. If he runs up to the standard of his last run he should be way too good for these. Flying Pickets is overpriced and looks a danger so an e/w on him at 18/1.
Southwell 15.45 - Having a little single on Sewn Up as he is in form, looks overpriced and I would love him to beat Hayley Turner's odds on mount. ;-)
Southwell 16.20 - Okay I was probably wrong the other day about Elusive Hawk but did he win? No, so the lay was a success! ;-) I think he will take all the beating today and will go into a multiple but the front running Desert Strike is a horse I like and is overpriced. Southwell is notoriously hard for horses that like to come with a late swoop from the back and with Joe Fanning up in the saddle today instead of my best pal Hayley Turner he looks a great e/w bet at a very generous 20/1.
Wolves 18.50 - Compton Silver is worth a small win bet in this for me, a very very weak race for a yard bang in form, blinkers tried for the first time too.
Wolves 19.20 - Spark of Genius will be getting back to winning ways today. A first time visor and WTD's claim taken into account makes him look an attractive proposition. Today's track and trip are ideal for her and I will be very surprised if she doesn't win.
Wetherby 4.30 - The Thirsty Bricky will win soon win my mind, not exactly sure why I think that though! Anyway a puny e/w stake on him at 33's for me.
My bets:
Singles:
Ling - 13.30 Tenbridge @ 6/1 Placed
Sout - 15.10 Flying Pickets @ 25/1 (e/w)
Sout - 15.45 Sewn Up @ 9/2 Placed
Sout - 16.20 Desert Strike @ 20/1 (e/w) Placed
Weth - 16.30 The Thirsty Bricky @ 33/1 (e/w) Placed
Wolv - 18.50 Compton Silver @ 4/1 Won
Wolv - 19.20 Spark of Genius @ 2/1 NAP Placed
Doubles:
'Banker' Double - Homeboy and Spark of Genius @ 5/1
Value Double - Tenbridge and Caldercruix @ 17/1
Each Way Longshot Double - Flying Pickets and Desert Strike @ 545/1
Treble:
Homeboy, Spark of Genius, Caldercruix @ 15/1
Four Fold:
Homeboy, Spark of Genius, Caldercruix, Elusive Hawk @ 38/1
No Lucky 15 today as my best four bets are shorter prices than usual and the returns wouldn't be that great. However the treble looks great value and if you are only getting on one of our bets today make it that. Good Luck all, confident today, despite yesterday!
THT
I was arguably more frustrated with the ride on our NAP as I have never been a fan of Hayley Turner and mentioned that when explaining the selection and for her to give a ride like that was shocking. I have seen it with her before, even the other day on odds on chance Balatina, she just gives up. Ihtikar could have won that race in my opinion. Basically Hayley just gave him a light slap on the neck on the turn, that was it. A little slap then just pushed him out for the rest of the race when he had every chance, didn't pick up the whip at all. A young inexperienced horse needs a disciplined and professional jockey on board and the jockey has to make the horse know why it is there, to run as fast as he can. I was very angry at the ride and will never back any of her mounts again. Call me a sore loser but I said before the race I don't rate her and to be honest I was foolish for picking one of her rides in the first place.
All that said our other three picks weren't good enough as Desert Donkey looked the winner but the winning post came too late and two fast finishers had already flashed by. He beat the odds on favourite that I was never convinced by pretty well though so he can take credit from the race, a step back in trip may suit him or coming off the pace a bit more rather than riding prominently. Wordiness had a little bit of bad luck in running and to be honest the ride was a bit under par from Robert Tart but the horse wasn't good enough anyway as he went down by a short head, which summed our day up nicely.
However we remain defiant as ever and hope to bounce back today. Four meetings to get stuck into, so here goes:
Lingfield 13.30 - Athletic is the warm favourite for this one but Kempton is more his track and he usually runs over further than this. However he did try 7f a few starts back and won, more comfortably than the winning margin suggests too. However what was he beating? Not much. We prefer Tenbridge who ran a big race last time and is 3lb lower today. He was 50/1 last time over at Wolves, a more similar track to Lingfield than Kempton. The winner, Maggie Pink ran a decent race last time coming 2nd to Putin, okay maybe that isn't so great! However, at 3lb lower and in a weaker race, I think Tenbridge will be hard to beat today at a decent enough price.
Lingfield 14.30 - Homeboy is in the form of his life and loves it at Lingers. This race looks weaker than his recent challenges and he gave Noverre to Go a fright the other day when he got within a length staying on better than the rest. Short, but can't see past him, he should win with something in hand and will go into a multiple or two.
Lingfield 16.05 - Dorothy's Dancing steps up a grade but with Ned Curtis's claim taken into account she is running off a mark of 60 today. She won last time off a mark of 65 but faces higher rated rivals today. You get the impression that the trainer is trying to get one more big run out of her today before the handicapper catches up but in a competitive race she won't be having any of my money on her, though looks the likely winner.
Lingfield 17.15 - Kent Ragstone won as she liked last time beating the field by 6 lenghts or more. Then again what was she racing against really? The fav pulled up injured and the rest were uninspiring. However, today's race doesn't look like it will be beyond her and she will have learned a lot from last week's run. I wouldn't be surprised if she was beaten but then equally I wouldn't be surprised if she bolted up again today. At 4/7, even in a multiple she doesn't look good value for a horse with only one run under her belt.
Southwell 15.10 - Caldercruix has the strongest form by a mile and I am surprised he isn't shorter. If he runs up to the standard of his last run he should be way too good for these. Flying Pickets is overpriced and looks a danger so an e/w on him at 18/1.
Southwell 15.45 - Having a little single on Sewn Up as he is in form, looks overpriced and I would love him to beat Hayley Turner's odds on mount. ;-)
Southwell 16.20 - Okay I was probably wrong the other day about Elusive Hawk but did he win? No, so the lay was a success! ;-) I think he will take all the beating today and will go into a multiple but the front running Desert Strike is a horse I like and is overpriced. Southwell is notoriously hard for horses that like to come with a late swoop from the back and with Joe Fanning up in the saddle today instead of my best pal Hayley Turner he looks a great e/w bet at a very generous 20/1.
Wolves 18.50 - Compton Silver is worth a small win bet in this for me, a very very weak race for a yard bang in form, blinkers tried for the first time too.
Wolves 19.20 - Spark of Genius will be getting back to winning ways today. A first time visor and WTD's claim taken into account makes him look an attractive proposition. Today's track and trip are ideal for her and I will be very surprised if she doesn't win.
Wetherby 4.30 - The Thirsty Bricky will win soon win my mind, not exactly sure why I think that though! Anyway a puny e/w stake on him at 33's for me.
My bets:
Singles:
Ling - 13.30 Tenbridge @ 6/1 Placed
Sout - 15.10 Flying Pickets @ 25/1 (e/w)
Sout - 15.45 Sewn Up @ 9/2 Placed
Sout - 16.20 Desert Strike @ 20/1 (e/w) Placed
Weth - 16.30 The Thirsty Bricky @ 33/1 (e/w) Placed
Wolv - 18.50 Compton Silver @ 4/1 Won
Wolv - 19.20 Spark of Genius @ 2/1 NAP Placed
Doubles:
'Banker' Double - Homeboy and Spark of Genius @ 5/1
Value Double - Tenbridge and Caldercruix @ 17/1
Each Way Longshot Double - Flying Pickets and Desert Strike @ 545/1
Treble:
Homeboy, Spark of Genius, Caldercruix @ 15/1
Four Fold:
Homeboy, Spark of Genius, Caldercruix, Elusive Hawk @ 38/1
No Lucky 15 today as my best four bets are shorter prices than usual and the returns wouldn't be that great. However the treble looks great value and if you are only getting on one of our bets today make it that. Good Luck all, confident today, despite yesterday!
THT
Monday, 25 March 2013
Tuesday 26th March
What a great day Monday was. Said on Sunday we usually do well on Monday's and we had one of our biggest days yet. A 20/1 winner (yes I know it was lucky but we were definitely due some luck!) was followed by a 31/1 treble we mentioned on twitter. Then after the dust had settled on the racing we turned our attention to the footy where we advised a double of England U21's to keep a clean sheet and BTTS in the Brazil/Russia game which returned at an appealing 3/1. We also landed a 16/1 winner as we advised a 4-0 score prediction in the England game. We fancied 2-2 in the Russia/Brazil game but it only ended 1-1 and our draw no bet mention on Russia at 10/3 returned the stake. Never good to get too carried away but days like Monday are worth savouring, I know a few got on some of the bets but still not as many as I would have liked! As I have said before and will say time and time again, you have to stick with someone and have faith, or you simply can not expect to make long term profit!! Anyway, Tuesday to look forward to now with racing from Fontwell, Lingfield and Southwell to get stuck in to.
Lingfield 2.20 - Gabrial The Duke has run over today's C and D plenty of times and looks the likely winner to me as he has been running against better opposition than most of the rest. The threat from Day In Day Out is slightly worriyng me however and Lady Lunchalot stepping up in trip and priced at 25/1 on betfair at time of writing looks overpriced despite her recent poor run. Brick Rising a danger too. GTD is pretty short though and will be going into some sort of multiple if anything at all.
Lingfield 2.50 - Ihtikar caught my eye in this one as he came fourth in a decent race on debut. The three in front of him that day have all gone on to win since then and he also had a dual subsequent winner well beaten four lengths behind him. For any horse that would look good but as that was Ithikar's debut, that form looks very impressive especially when you also take a closer look at his breeding. He has a nice pedigree that suggests middle distances will suit him well and today's step up in trip might eke out even more improvement. He finished the race well despite being shoved along a fair way out after being bumped around. In my opinion if he runs to that standard he will come out on top here, but with normal improvement expected and the step up in trip sure to suit, he looks an attractive proposition. My one worry would be he has not raced for five months but don't forget that some of these have never raced at all. I am not Hayley Turner's biggest fan but I know plenty rate her very highly and she and the trainer are bang in form of late which is encouraging. Not many prices out at the time of writing but it seems he will open at around 3/1 second fav behind a newcomer from what I can tell so far and he is likely to have some of my money behind him.
Lingfield 3.20 - Hate these types of races, from a betting point of view anyway, no bet for me.
Lingfield 3.50 - Was expecting Desert Donkey to be one of the principals for this one but to see him available at 6/1 was a surprise. He ran very well last time he was here only beaten off by a short head, despite it being a fairly weak race. He has been tried at Kempton twice since, without success but today looks an easier opportunity than either of those. He was well backed on his last run at Lingers and again two races ago and the moves were quite significant if I remember rightly. It is worth keeping an eye on failed gambles as all too often they pop up a race or two later. 6/1 looks like he is worth backing e/w to me as you will still profit even if he places at that price, and has a great chance with the promising apprentice Thomas Brown up in the saddle for the first time.
Lingfield 4.20 - This one looks a really nice race. The only two I am discounting are Storm Runner and King Vahe, the two outsiders! Avertis looks overpriced at 8/1 considering his C and D form reads 113 yet the races look pretty weak, but he has fair place claims. Mafi has become a different horse since dropped down to the mile and is on a C and D hattrick despite finishing 3rd over at Kempton last time out where he finished a short head behind the re-opposing Brocklebank yet Mafi should reverse the running today especially with Thomas Brown's claim taken into account and he looks big at 7's. However Brocklebank saves his best for Lingers so to see him go close wouldn't be a great surprise. Xinbama has one piece of eye catching form, a short head behind Layali Dubai, a horse my long term followers know I love. She then went on to win her next four races beating Xinbama by a bit further once again on one of those occasions. This race looks less competitive so he isn't without a chance, though has been off the track for five months and may not be sharp enough today. Dutch Old Master drops in class for this one and has already at the time of writing been the subject of a gamble. Over 50% of the money so far has been for him. His last run at Lingers he won, although only by the narrowest of margins and a furlong shorter than today's trip almost a year ago. Dutch Old Master didn't run especially well last time however at Kempton only 6 days ago finishing 9th of 13. Ryan Moore in the saddle today so she is expected to go well but I fancy one or two might be too strong for her. As you can see a very competitive race and I haven't even mentioned the favourite yet. Lily Edge is a horse we have backed the last twice when she has ran out the fast finishing winner on both occasions. She still has bags of potential and is likely to keep improving and is worth sticking with once more, despite this being a slightly stiffer test than she has faced before. Last race she had to switch in and out in the last few furlongs (being hampered in running is a worry as she likes to be ridden in the rear) but flew home like usual and won it nicely. What was more impressive though was that she was slightly slow out of the stalls and more so that the race was run at a slow pace. Lily Edge needs a fast pace to see the best of her and she should get that today back at the track where she came 2nd at 66/1 on her debut. I am sticking with Lily as she has made me money before and despite the competitive nature of this race, she is unexposed and there should be even more to come. Mafi looks the chief threat and an e/w cover bet might be worth the while.
Lingfield 4.50 - Tried and tried to find a reason to take on Wordiness in this but I can't see past him in truth. Evens may look big come the end of the race and he is worth adding to a multiple or two. Surprised he isn't odds on, this looks much easier than his recent races.
Lingfield 5.20 - Total Obsession makes a quick re-appearance as connections, like myself obviously fancied his chances the other day when the race didn't go to plan at all. He will go off a bigger price today subsequently. Mentioned all my reasons for backing him then and they remain the same, yet this looks a little weaker, more to beat however. The favourite is likely to be Young Jackie who disappointed last time when Total Obsession finished a couple ahead of him in first place. She should finish closer to the selection this time but I fancy Total Obsession to go well again and feel he has another big race in him providing he doesn't get bad luck in running like last time out when nothing went right. Worth backing each way too at 6/1 as you will still profit should he only manage a place.
Fancy nothing at Southwell whatsoever, looks a pretty weak card to be honest and everything I like at Fontwell is too short. I am sure Orange Nassau is better than he has shown so far though and would not be surprised to see him pop up, no bets at either of the other two meetings for me however.
Singles:
NAP - Lingfield 2.50 - Ihtikar @ 3/1 - (3pt win)
NB - Lingfield 4.20 - Lily Edge @ 5/2 - (2pt win)
Lingfield 3.50 - Desert Donkey @ 6/1 (1pt e/w)
Lingfield 4.20 - Mafi @ 7/1 (1pt e/w)
Lingfield 5.20 - Total Obsession @ 6/1 (1pt e/w) NR (+2pts)
Ihtikar, Lily Edge, Wordiness - 1pt doubles (3pts total)
1pt treble (Lily Edge, Wordiness, Ihtikar) @ 27/1
Lucky 15:
Ihtikar, Lily Edge, Wordiness, Total Obsession (NR) - Replace with Desert Donkey.
Returns £518 for a £1 stake.
Decided to NAP Ihtikar as don't like making my best bet anything at 2/1 or less, though Wordiness isn't getting beaten imo. Nothing screams out massive value to me, as shown by the prices being shorter than the prices we usually back at. Good Luck if you jump on board any of ours today, hoping for another big one!
THT
Lingfield 2.20 - Gabrial The Duke has run over today's C and D plenty of times and looks the likely winner to me as he has been running against better opposition than most of the rest. The threat from Day In Day Out is slightly worriyng me however and Lady Lunchalot stepping up in trip and priced at 25/1 on betfair at time of writing looks overpriced despite her recent poor run. Brick Rising a danger too. GTD is pretty short though and will be going into some sort of multiple if anything at all.
Lingfield 2.50 - Ihtikar caught my eye in this one as he came fourth in a decent race on debut. The three in front of him that day have all gone on to win since then and he also had a dual subsequent winner well beaten four lengths behind him. For any horse that would look good but as that was Ithikar's debut, that form looks very impressive especially when you also take a closer look at his breeding. He has a nice pedigree that suggests middle distances will suit him well and today's step up in trip might eke out even more improvement. He finished the race well despite being shoved along a fair way out after being bumped around. In my opinion if he runs to that standard he will come out on top here, but with normal improvement expected and the step up in trip sure to suit, he looks an attractive proposition. My one worry would be he has not raced for five months but don't forget that some of these have never raced at all. I am not Hayley Turner's biggest fan but I know plenty rate her very highly and she and the trainer are bang in form of late which is encouraging. Not many prices out at the time of writing but it seems he will open at around 3/1 second fav behind a newcomer from what I can tell so far and he is likely to have some of my money behind him.
Lingfield 3.20 - Hate these types of races, from a betting point of view anyway, no bet for me.
Lingfield 3.50 - Was expecting Desert Donkey to be one of the principals for this one but to see him available at 6/1 was a surprise. He ran very well last time he was here only beaten off by a short head, despite it being a fairly weak race. He has been tried at Kempton twice since, without success but today looks an easier opportunity than either of those. He was well backed on his last run at Lingers and again two races ago and the moves were quite significant if I remember rightly. It is worth keeping an eye on failed gambles as all too often they pop up a race or two later. 6/1 looks like he is worth backing e/w to me as you will still profit even if he places at that price, and has a great chance with the promising apprentice Thomas Brown up in the saddle for the first time.
Lingfield 4.20 - This one looks a really nice race. The only two I am discounting are Storm Runner and King Vahe, the two outsiders! Avertis looks overpriced at 8/1 considering his C and D form reads 113 yet the races look pretty weak, but he has fair place claims. Mafi has become a different horse since dropped down to the mile and is on a C and D hattrick despite finishing 3rd over at Kempton last time out where he finished a short head behind the re-opposing Brocklebank yet Mafi should reverse the running today especially with Thomas Brown's claim taken into account and he looks big at 7's. However Brocklebank saves his best for Lingers so to see him go close wouldn't be a great surprise. Xinbama has one piece of eye catching form, a short head behind Layali Dubai, a horse my long term followers know I love. She then went on to win her next four races beating Xinbama by a bit further once again on one of those occasions. This race looks less competitive so he isn't without a chance, though has been off the track for five months and may not be sharp enough today. Dutch Old Master drops in class for this one and has already at the time of writing been the subject of a gamble. Over 50% of the money so far has been for him. His last run at Lingers he won, although only by the narrowest of margins and a furlong shorter than today's trip almost a year ago. Dutch Old Master didn't run especially well last time however at Kempton only 6 days ago finishing 9th of 13. Ryan Moore in the saddle today so she is expected to go well but I fancy one or two might be too strong for her. As you can see a very competitive race and I haven't even mentioned the favourite yet. Lily Edge is a horse we have backed the last twice when she has ran out the fast finishing winner on both occasions. She still has bags of potential and is likely to keep improving and is worth sticking with once more, despite this being a slightly stiffer test than she has faced before. Last race she had to switch in and out in the last few furlongs (being hampered in running is a worry as she likes to be ridden in the rear) but flew home like usual and won it nicely. What was more impressive though was that she was slightly slow out of the stalls and more so that the race was run at a slow pace. Lily Edge needs a fast pace to see the best of her and she should get that today back at the track where she came 2nd at 66/1 on her debut. I am sticking with Lily as she has made me money before and despite the competitive nature of this race, she is unexposed and there should be even more to come. Mafi looks the chief threat and an e/w cover bet might be worth the while.
Lingfield 4.50 - Tried and tried to find a reason to take on Wordiness in this but I can't see past him in truth. Evens may look big come the end of the race and he is worth adding to a multiple or two. Surprised he isn't odds on, this looks much easier than his recent races.
Lingfield 5.20 - Total Obsession makes a quick re-appearance as connections, like myself obviously fancied his chances the other day when the race didn't go to plan at all. He will go off a bigger price today subsequently. Mentioned all my reasons for backing him then and they remain the same, yet this looks a little weaker, more to beat however. The favourite is likely to be Young Jackie who disappointed last time when Total Obsession finished a couple ahead of him in first place. She should finish closer to the selection this time but I fancy Total Obsession to go well again and feel he has another big race in him providing he doesn't get bad luck in running like last time out when nothing went right. Worth backing each way too at 6/1 as you will still profit should he only manage a place.
Fancy nothing at Southwell whatsoever, looks a pretty weak card to be honest and everything I like at Fontwell is too short. I am sure Orange Nassau is better than he has shown so far though and would not be surprised to see him pop up, no bets at either of the other two meetings for me however.
Singles:
NAP - Lingfield 2.50 - Ihtikar @ 3/1 - (3pt win)
NB - Lingfield 4.20 - Lily Edge @ 5/2 - (2pt win)
Lingfield 3.50 - Desert Donkey @ 6/1 (1pt e/w)
Lingfield 4.20 - Mafi @ 7/1 (1pt e/w)
Lingfield 5.20 - Total Obsession @ 6/1 (1pt e/w) NR (+2pts)
Ihtikar, Lily Edge, Wordiness - 1pt doubles (3pts total)
1pt treble (Lily Edge, Wordiness, Ihtikar) @ 27/1
Lucky 15:
Ihtikar, Lily Edge, Wordiness, Total Obsession (NR) - Replace with Desert Donkey.
Returns £518 for a £1 stake.
Decided to NAP Ihtikar as don't like making my best bet anything at 2/1 or less, though Wordiness isn't getting beaten imo. Nothing screams out massive value to me, as shown by the prices being shorter than the prices we usually back at. Good Luck if you jump on board any of ours today, hoping for another big one!
THT
Sunday, 24 March 2013
Monday 25th March
Decent end to the week as our NB went in at 6/1 meaning good profit. 19pts returned from the 2pt e/w stake advised, shame it wasn't a 4pt win! He won really well to and credit has to go to Cathy Gannon, despite her nearly throwing the race by going for a gap that was never there on the inside. She had to switch Al outside which halted his momentum but he stayed on well and won by half a length with plenty of horses putting pressure on right behind. He will probably be worth sticking with next time as he won nicely despite the bad luck in running mentioned. We also gave a mention on Twitter to the 33/1 outsider of the field (66/1 available earlier in the day) as he was wearing headgear for the first time and was the highest rated in the field and he finished second. Had a tiny e/w stake on myself, shame I didn't stick it on the blog as a selection! The race our NAP ran in was a very strange one. He was held up in the back where he likes to be in his races and Beauchamp Xerxes was given an uncontested lead by the field. The slowish pace was against our selection from the off and after BX kicked clear nothing stood a chance. Joey Haynes opted for the inside at first which was a mistake but he could do nothing as everything in front of him was being ridden miles out. He got stuck behind horses that were slowing and when he eventually found space Total Obsession stayed on better than most despite the fast pace he prefers not being there for him to run at. Finished 3rd in the end behind Ann Stokell's horse in 2nd but ahead of the favourite but luckily my cover bet on BX who was dropping down a grade or two came in, yet I was still very disappointed by the way the race was run, especially with Al's Memory winning earlier in the day to kick off the 29/1 double.
Anyway on to Monday where we have just the one card on the all weather at Lingers. For me the card makes for pretty poor reading but there are a fewhorses I think are substantially overpriced. Summary of races and my bets below.
14.10 - Selling stakes are rarely the type of race I bet on, this one no different. No strong opinion at all yet Prince of Burma, significantly dropping in class looks the likeliest winner. Can't imagine many will seriously be betting on him if he starts odds on as expected though.
14.40 - Marmot Bay will likely be called a Non-Runner in the morning. That's all I have to say for this race.
15.10 - One of the better races of the day, plenty with chances. I am firmly against the favourite however as I stated on Twitter. Firstly he can only seem to run well at right handed tracks like Kempton and 7f is not his trip. When he last tried 7f it was actually at his preferred track but he came 12th of 13. If he was running another 6f race on a right handed track he would be of interest but here he looks worth laying and to be honest he isn't the type to follow up anyway, especially with a penalty to contend with. Yankee Storm has claims after his good win last time, but needs a strong pace and isn't one of the likelier types to follow up. 7f is his trip though so he has that going for him. Valdaw is in the form of his life but he does all his racing at 6f, yet he was a close second on his only previous try at 7f in recent months. He has been tried at 1m twice where he wasn't disgraced in his 3rd and 6th placings. Claims, but too short for me as he is unbackable each way at the prices. Satwa Laird and Sannibel look pretty safe to discount yet the latter could easily pop up in the places in a race like this and Satwa Laird is below her last winning mark. Lord of the Dance makes a lot of appeal to me though as does The Happy Hammer as they both offer great value at 16/1 the pair. West Leake should also go close and looks a tad overpriced to me too. LOTD will be winning a race like this soon, and it could be his turn today. He often races at 1m so he will stay out today's trip better than some of these and ran well in defeat last time. He rarely races at Lingfield but I fancy him to run a big race tomorrow. THH, despite being the outsider of the field at time of writing has solid place claims imo. He usually runs in slightly stronger races than today's and has beaten plenty of subsequent winners recently. A C and D winner too, 14/1 looks pretty big as he can be forgiven his run last time at a right handed track and a different trip. Decided to also do a little any order tricast with the the couple we have backed e/w and West Leake as a little fun bet too.
15.40 - The only interesting thing I have to say about this race is what I said on Twitter. Rooknrasbryripple finished three lengths ahead of Catalina's Diamond last time yet is priced 25/1 while Catalina is 9/2. They re-oppose on exactly the same terms including same course and distance.
16.10 - No opinion, no bet.
16.40 - Anything could win this but we go with the ever consistent El Libertador each way at a huge 10/1. This race looks significantly weaker than his recent contests too, so a place is almost guaranteed imo unless he gets terrible luck in running or gets injured. He has a great chance of getting a 1 on the formbook rather than 2's and 3's here and looks massively overpriced.
17.10 - This race looks another decent contest, in the context of a Monday afternoon on the A/W anyway. Mubtadi the worthy favourite but worth taking on I think. This one is competitive and plenty have hopes. Chrissycross has been running perfectly well but does look a tad underpriced, even with Hughes in the saddle. She should be winning soon however and I wouldn't be surprised to see her run a big race. Didn't back Bernisdale last time after seriously considering it then watched him win very comfortably over a longer trip at Wolves. This may be a bit sharp for him though despite the appealing 12/1 on offer. Overall, as I said many with claims but all things considered I think Sail Home looks the best value bet in the race. She won convincingly last time she raced over C and D finishing like a train beating the re-opposing (and shorter priced today) Ogaritmo by 2-3 lengths. She was dropped back in trip to a distance that doesn't suit last time but despite looking outpaced on the turn, stayed on toward the end to finish a decent fourth to subsequent winner Maggie Pink which is pretty good going considering she prefers further. With form of 3431 over C and D and not being beaten by more than two lengths in any defeat over today's track and journey she looks massive at 16/1 and is worth a decent e/w punt. Rivals Understory and Conducting have both beaten her before but the former is inconsistent despite having the recent beating of the latter and I fancy Sail Home will come out top of this trio at the very least.
15.10 Lord of the Dance @ 22/1 - 0.5pts e/w Won (+14.75pts)
15.10 The Happy Hammer @ 20/1 - 0.5pts e/w
16.40 El Libertador @ 10/1 - 1.5pts e/w
17.10 Sail Home @ 22/1 - 1pt e/w
Lay of the Day: 15.10 - Elusive Hawk @ 6/4 - (8/15 not to win) Won (+/- N/A as no stake advised)
As you can see we have gone for value today like usual with our four picks being a minimum price of 10/1. My better two bets would be El Libertador and Sail Home, will be disappointed if they both don't at least place and an each way double at 252/1 has to be worth a few quid! Good Luck all. :-)
Great day as Lord of the Dance won in nice style at 20/1 despite the loose horse which happened to be our other pick, all but ending our lay of the day's chances! Isn't that weird? Anyway we also landed a 31/1 treble that we mentioned on Twitter and glad to hear some got on it but I should have put it on the blog, don't know why I didn't! Another one I mentioned on the Twitter was an any order tricast of the horses that ended the race one two three at 20/1, 20/1 and 13/2, which would have been a huge pay day. Just a shame The Happy Hammer had no one on board!! We also landed a 3/1 double and a 16/1 score prediction on the footy this evening, what a day! Anyway hope you got on board, had great fun, back tomorrow!
THT
Anyway on to Monday where we have just the one card on the all weather at Lingers. For me the card makes for pretty poor reading but there are a fewhorses I think are substantially overpriced. Summary of races and my bets below.
14.10 - Selling stakes are rarely the type of race I bet on, this one no different. No strong opinion at all yet Prince of Burma, significantly dropping in class looks the likeliest winner. Can't imagine many will seriously be betting on him if he starts odds on as expected though.
14.40 - Marmot Bay will likely be called a Non-Runner in the morning. That's all I have to say for this race.
15.10 - One of the better races of the day, plenty with chances. I am firmly against the favourite however as I stated on Twitter. Firstly he can only seem to run well at right handed tracks like Kempton and 7f is not his trip. When he last tried 7f it was actually at his preferred track but he came 12th of 13. If he was running another 6f race on a right handed track he would be of interest but here he looks worth laying and to be honest he isn't the type to follow up anyway, especially with a penalty to contend with. Yankee Storm has claims after his good win last time, but needs a strong pace and isn't one of the likelier types to follow up. 7f is his trip though so he has that going for him. Valdaw is in the form of his life but he does all his racing at 6f, yet he was a close second on his only previous try at 7f in recent months. He has been tried at 1m twice where he wasn't disgraced in his 3rd and 6th placings. Claims, but too short for me as he is unbackable each way at the prices. Satwa Laird and Sannibel look pretty safe to discount yet the latter could easily pop up in the places in a race like this and Satwa Laird is below her last winning mark. Lord of the Dance makes a lot of appeal to me though as does The Happy Hammer as they both offer great value at 16/1 the pair. West Leake should also go close and looks a tad overpriced to me too. LOTD will be winning a race like this soon, and it could be his turn today. He often races at 1m so he will stay out today's trip better than some of these and ran well in defeat last time. He rarely races at Lingfield but I fancy him to run a big race tomorrow. THH, despite being the outsider of the field at time of writing has solid place claims imo. He usually runs in slightly stronger races than today's and has beaten plenty of subsequent winners recently. A C and D winner too, 14/1 looks pretty big as he can be forgiven his run last time at a right handed track and a different trip. Decided to also do a little any order tricast with the the couple we have backed e/w and West Leake as a little fun bet too.
15.40 - The only interesting thing I have to say about this race is what I said on Twitter. Rooknrasbryripple finished three lengths ahead of Catalina's Diamond last time yet is priced 25/1 while Catalina is 9/2. They re-oppose on exactly the same terms including same course and distance.
16.10 - No opinion, no bet.
16.40 - Anything could win this but we go with the ever consistent El Libertador each way at a huge 10/1. This race looks significantly weaker than his recent contests too, so a place is almost guaranteed imo unless he gets terrible luck in running or gets injured. He has a great chance of getting a 1 on the formbook rather than 2's and 3's here and looks massively overpriced.
17.10 - This race looks another decent contest, in the context of a Monday afternoon on the A/W anyway. Mubtadi the worthy favourite but worth taking on I think. This one is competitive and plenty have hopes. Chrissycross has been running perfectly well but does look a tad underpriced, even with Hughes in the saddle. She should be winning soon however and I wouldn't be surprised to see her run a big race. Didn't back Bernisdale last time after seriously considering it then watched him win very comfortably over a longer trip at Wolves. This may be a bit sharp for him though despite the appealing 12/1 on offer. Overall, as I said many with claims but all things considered I think Sail Home looks the best value bet in the race. She won convincingly last time she raced over C and D finishing like a train beating the re-opposing (and shorter priced today) Ogaritmo by 2-3 lengths. She was dropped back in trip to a distance that doesn't suit last time but despite looking outpaced on the turn, stayed on toward the end to finish a decent fourth to subsequent winner Maggie Pink which is pretty good going considering she prefers further. With form of 3431 over C and D and not being beaten by more than two lengths in any defeat over today's track and journey she looks massive at 16/1 and is worth a decent e/w punt. Rivals Understory and Conducting have both beaten her before but the former is inconsistent despite having the recent beating of the latter and I fancy Sail Home will come out top of this trio at the very least.
15.10 Lord of the Dance @ 22/1 - 0.5pts e/w Won (+14.75pts)
15.10 The Happy Hammer @ 20/1 - 0.5pts e/w
16.40 El Libertador @ 10/1 - 1.5pts e/w
17.10 Sail Home @ 22/1 - 1pt e/w
Lay of the Day: 15.10 - Elusive Hawk @ 6/4 - (8/15 not to win) Won (+/- N/A as no stake advised)
As you can see we have gone for value today like usual with our four picks being a minimum price of 10/1. My better two bets would be El Libertador and Sail Home, will be disappointed if they both don't at least place and an each way double at 252/1 has to be worth a few quid! Good Luck all. :-)
Great day as Lord of the Dance won in nice style at 20/1 despite the loose horse which happened to be our other pick, all but ending our lay of the day's chances! Isn't that weird? Anyway we also landed a 31/1 treble that we mentioned on Twitter and glad to hear some got on it but I should have put it on the blog, don't know why I didn't! Another one I mentioned on the Twitter was an any order tricast of the horses that ended the race one two three at 20/1, 20/1 and 13/2, which would have been a huge pay day. Just a shame The Happy Hammer had no one on board!! We also landed a 3/1 double and a 16/1 score prediction on the footy this evening, what a day! Anyway hope you got on board, had great fun, back tomorrow!
THT
Saturday, 23 March 2013
Sunday 24th March
Morning all. What a shame Doncaster and Newbury were called off, really fancied a few of them, hopefully it will be re-scheduled soon enough! Yesterday only one meeting took place in the UK on the fibresand at Southwell. Wasn't going to bet there, like a few people on twitter and ended up backing horses I wasn't 100% confident in as the other meetings were abandoned. Only small stakes though as it is known as a bit of a lottery over there! Anyway, excuse the fact there are no proper write ups, need some sleep after staying up till the early hours only to be disappointed in the morning yesterday and have to be up very early on Sunday morning for work! Decided it would be easiest to do a little preview on each race and will probably do it like this from now on with all my bets included and our NAP, NB and best value each way shout (IWAC) listed at the bottom.
Lingfield 13.40 - Noverre to Go really should be winning this but at odds on no bet for us in this one.
Lingfield 14.10 - Who knows?! Haha.
Lingfield 14.40 - Are people actually going to be backing Balatina at odds on?! Marmot Bay looks the likely winner for me. Will probably have a puny stake but 10/3 looks about right.
Lingfield 15.10 - Competitive little race. I like Beat Route and Llamadas is definitely overpriced at 7/1. Still unsure whether to back both either or neither. Might have a small win bet on both.
Lingfield 15.40 - Feature race and Super Say gets my vote at a very appealing 12/1. Has a great chance and a place looks likely imo.
Lingfield 16.10 - Al's Memory for me at the prices. David Evans has two runners, Kirby on board a rival, Cathy Gannon on Al. This worries me as it is possible one will try and set the race up for the other, which way who knows? 6/1 looks worth a decent size e/w bet though. Rowe Park also gets a small amount of my money e/w as he always runs his race and 18/1 is generous.
Lingfield 16.40 - Bit of a desperate race but I have had a puny each way stake on Sunny Bank as he is overpriced.
Lingfield 17.10 - Total Obsession sprang a surprise over track and journey two starts back beating a smart horse at this level. The jockey used his whip barely if at all and to the naked eye it looks as if the horse was just pushed out. He quickened impressively to cut them down late on. LTO he was unlucky not to win as he had to switch outside while gathering momentum down the inner but stayed on better than anything to finish a length off the pace in a tougher race than both his win and the race today. In fact today's race looks the easiest of the three. Really like this one and can only see Teth causing anything like a problem. 3/1. My NAP of the day I think.
Wincanton 14.25 - The favourite is the most likely winner imo but no bet.
Wincanton 14.55 - See this one between Don Pooleoni and Little Jimmy. The latter likely to complete the four timer with the former the one to chase him home. No bet for me.
Wincanton 15.25 - Musical Wedge is a horse I like but due to a few others being well handicapped I am likely to avoid betting.
Wincanton 15.55 - Nice little race, all with a chance. Had a small flutter on Benbane Head at 10/1 e/w as I like the yard and the horse has experience in higher quality races than this. Big ask to win this, but very good place claims imo.
Wincanton 16.25 - Reginaldho can be forgiven his last run imo and a chance is taken he will go well. At the prices he is a very solid each way claim and would surprise no one if he came out on top.
Wincanton 16.55 - Can't see past the Henderson horse but not betting at that price.
NAP: Ling 17.10 - Total Obsession @ 10/3 - 3pt win
NB: Ling 16.10 - Al's Memory @ 6/1 - 2pts each way
IWAC: Ling 15.40 - Super Say @ 12/1 - 1pt e/w
(All other bets mentioned will be staked at 0.5pts e/w or 1pt win dependant on the prices)
As you can see from the prices of our NAP and NB we tip value. No odds on jollies here! Can't believe tipsters charge people then just tip all the shorties but there you go. For those interested our NAP and NB double pays out at a whopping 29/1. Minimal stakes though on the double as the David Evans jockey situation worries me but hopefully Al will come out on top! Might have an each way treble on those three as it looks a great price at almost 400/1 with Paddy Power at time of writing! Good Luck everyone, Sunday is notoriously a bogey day for myself on the horses but that has to change sooner or later!
THT
Lingfield 13.40 - Noverre to Go really should be winning this but at odds on no bet for us in this one.
Lingfield 14.10 - Who knows?! Haha.
Lingfield 14.40 - Are people actually going to be backing Balatina at odds on?! Marmot Bay looks the likely winner for me. Will probably have a puny stake but 10/3 looks about right.
Lingfield 15.10 - Competitive little race. I like Beat Route and Llamadas is definitely overpriced at 7/1. Still unsure whether to back both either or neither. Might have a small win bet on both.
Lingfield 15.40 - Feature race and Super Say gets my vote at a very appealing 12/1. Has a great chance and a place looks likely imo.
Lingfield 16.10 - Al's Memory for me at the prices. David Evans has two runners, Kirby on board a rival, Cathy Gannon on Al. This worries me as it is possible one will try and set the race up for the other, which way who knows? 6/1 looks worth a decent size e/w bet though. Rowe Park also gets a small amount of my money e/w as he always runs his race and 18/1 is generous.
Lingfield 16.40 - Bit of a desperate race but I have had a puny each way stake on Sunny Bank as he is overpriced.
Lingfield 17.10 - Total Obsession sprang a surprise over track and journey two starts back beating a smart horse at this level. The jockey used his whip barely if at all and to the naked eye it looks as if the horse was just pushed out. He quickened impressively to cut them down late on. LTO he was unlucky not to win as he had to switch outside while gathering momentum down the inner but stayed on better than anything to finish a length off the pace in a tougher race than both his win and the race today. In fact today's race looks the easiest of the three. Really like this one and can only see Teth causing anything like a problem. 3/1. My NAP of the day I think.
Wincanton 14.25 - The favourite is the most likely winner imo but no bet.
Wincanton 14.55 - See this one between Don Pooleoni and Little Jimmy. The latter likely to complete the four timer with the former the one to chase him home. No bet for me.
Wincanton 15.25 - Musical Wedge is a horse I like but due to a few others being well handicapped I am likely to avoid betting.
Wincanton 15.55 - Nice little race, all with a chance. Had a small flutter on Benbane Head at 10/1 e/w as I like the yard and the horse has experience in higher quality races than this. Big ask to win this, but very good place claims imo.
Wincanton 16.25 - Reginaldho can be forgiven his last run imo and a chance is taken he will go well. At the prices he is a very solid each way claim and would surprise no one if he came out on top.
Wincanton 16.55 - Can't see past the Henderson horse but not betting at that price.
NAP: Ling 17.10 - Total Obsession @ 10/3 - 3pt win
NB: Ling 16.10 - Al's Memory @ 6/1 - 2pts each way
IWAC: Ling 15.40 - Super Say @ 12/1 - 1pt e/w
(All other bets mentioned will be staked at 0.5pts e/w or 1pt win dependant on the prices)
As you can see from the prices of our NAP and NB we tip value. No odds on jollies here! Can't believe tipsters charge people then just tip all the shorties but there you go. For those interested our NAP and NB double pays out at a whopping 29/1. Minimal stakes though on the double as the David Evans jockey situation worries me but hopefully Al will come out on top! Might have an each way treble on those three as it looks a great price at almost 400/1 with Paddy Power at time of writing! Good Luck everyone, Sunday is notoriously a bogey day for myself on the horses but that has to change sooner or later!
THT
Friday, 22 March 2013
Saturday 23rd March
Morning all. Our 33/1 longshot couldn't cut it unfortunately. Despite moving menacingly and looking like he was going to mount a serious challenge, the step up in trip ultimately cost him as he weakened in the final furlong to the rear end of the field. Still think he is worth keeping an eye on back at the mile in weakish company, could be a big price. I don't regret backing a 33/1 shot as I honestly thought he had a big chance if seeing out the trip and was genuinely gutted as I know plenty had a few quid on him e/w. Anyway we move on.
The flat season kicked off yesterday in the freezing cold at Doncaster. Some very impressive performances from the likes of Mick's Yer Man trained by Bill Turner who just can't stop winning this race. The horse was named after his great friend and rival trainer Mick Easterby who last year won this race with My Boy Bill, named after Turner. Found this quite interesting myself but each to their own eh? Another impressive winner was Mister Impatience winning for the Johnston yard which has been quiet of late, yet he did get a winner at Wolves yesterday too. The odds on shot, Model Pupil also won very comfortably.
Shotavodka also won at a very decent price all things considered. A few people mentioned it to me on Twitter that he looked an attractive price at 5/2 yet the price never really shortened, in fact it drifted out to 10/3 (I think). However, he still won a competitive race pretty well. The day started badly for favourite backers as the odds on jolly from the out of form Nicholls yard Pay The King was a well beaten third behind 33/1 shot Manballandall. Benny's Mist hacked up as expected for Venetia Williams. The less said about the desperate Wolverhampton card the better but Jamie Spencer continued his rich vein of form bagging a double.
On to Saturday where we head to Donny again for a big day on the flat, providing that it passes it's morning inspection of course, as well as Southwell on the fibresand, and Newbury for some more jumping action. We start at Doncaster. Most of these bets are very small stakes unless specified so if you like the look of one or two and decide to go for them, then I advise minimal stakes. Please excuse the fact I am being very brief today!
Can't say the first race interests me much at all, but the second race is a different story. The value in the race is certainly Thunderball at what looks a very generous 25/1. He has won over course and distance before, beating a few of these in the process. He won't mind the ground either and though competitive 1/4 odds on the first four means he is a very attractive each way proposition. I was going to leave it at that but Jamaican Bolt is another in the race I have decided to back myself. Although stepping up to 6f for this, he has winning form on worse ground at 5f so he should stay this extra trip pretty well despite the testing going today. A close second on his last run here at Donny in soft ground (beating some nice horses) and WTD in the saddle mean 10/1, though a shorter price in the context of this race is worth a solid each way punt.
The next race is just as competitive meaning an abundance of value. Nameitwhatyoulike takes my fancy. Although one of the principals he is still worth backing each way as he is widely available at 9/1 at the time of writing. He is on a hattrick after winning his last two on soft ground which he revels in. He has won here at Doncaster too which is more than can be said for some of today's rivals. In fact he is only one of two horses in today's field with a C and D victory along with Levitate who should also go well. The big danger might be Kieran Fallon's ride, Ocean Tempest yet he has to prove that his narrow success all the way back in July was no fluke.
A good run from Jamaican Bolt will frank the short priced favourite's form in the 15.15. 11/4 does looks short for Jack Dexter in my opinion and some bookies have him at the 9/4 - 2/1 mark already. He can probably be forgiven his poor run last time but I would be looking to take him on given his last two wins were by the narrowest of margins in a slightly lower grade, on ground less testing than today's. Humidor has been racing in high quality races on good ground without success and his chances will depend on how he handles the going. However, I prefer Captain Ramius. He was unsuccessfully sent to Dubai this winter and is now back where he belongs on boggy ground that he adores. He has won at 7f at Doncaster before, yet in my opinion is far more effective at 6f, which is today's distance. He really finishes his races strongly and his recent runs will have him sharper than a few of these. At 7/1 he is worth backing each way too. Captain Ramius, therefore, is the albeit, slightly tentative selection.
The Lincoln is the feature race but I can honestly say I have no strong opinion on it. As you would expect many have good claims but nothing catches the eye so I will sit back and enjoy the race, good luck if you have a flutter though. If someone really really pushed me for a pick I would have a puny stake each way on Dance and Dance as he looks a shade overpriced to me.
The races after the feature don't interest me that much, but I think Canary Wharf should go okay and may have a bit on her if she drifts to a backable e/w price, but that's unlikely to happen.
Off to Newbury now. The 14.20 looks a cracking race and Violin Davis stood out at what looked a generous 6/1. I am sure she will shorten up a bit and despite my heart telling me to back her I go with the head. She concedes weight all round to some decent opposition and despite her upward curve I can't see her holding off all this lot, especially considering she also steps up in trip. If it was 2m 4f today I would back her with a win bet but even at 6/1, the step up in trip worries me. Fentara is a proven stayer beyond today's trip and I wouldn't be surprised if she goes off pretty short as she looks the likely winner. Umming and ahhing with this one, will decide in the morning. In fact I will probably have a tiny e/w double with Harry Fry's other runner mentioned in the next race.
The 14.55 looks another cracker. Will just enjoy watching this one I think although I like Highland Retreat's chances and Queen's Grove could run a big race at a big price as I thick she can be forgiven her last run, yet will need to improve; place claims though. Good Luck if you do have a flutter!
Ballyoliver for me in the 15.30. C and D winner, won't mind conditions at all, consistent, in form trainer, good price. In fact he is even worth backing each way but I fancy he can win this. 7/1 in places looks generous even when you consider the competition. A few of these have a bit to prove at present but the ever consistent Ballyoliver looks to have things in his favour, despite a 7lb penalty. Will probably end up going each way to be safe but I think he will be hard to beat.
Handazan knows how to win and has raced in far tougher races than this in his time. 5/1 is the best price I can find at the time of writing but will be surprised if that lasts too long. Not having the two French imports for a second and Whipcrackaway looks the main threat to the selection. The Alan King trained four year old loves the heavy ground and although stepping up in trip slightly he should have enough stamina to be mounting a serious challenge at the business end of things. For those interested, I am having a small stakes double on both him and Ballyoliver at a juicy 47/1 as well as the main daily double mentioned later. NB
Sustainability is my shortest priced bet of the day at 11/4 but he looks solid. This race looks weaker than his recent contests although Keki Buku has to be respected. Lough Coi could be lively as the bottom weight although steps up in class today. Our second horse trained by Venetia Williams today but what's wrong with that eh? She is after all the handicap queen. The horse has been in good form of late only missing out on wins the last twice by narrow margins. Despite conceding weight all round she should be classy enough as the trip and ground are ideal and her last win came here at Newbury, when despite making a few mistakes at the fences, stayed on well in the closing stages over a slightly longer trip than today. NAP
Nothing at Southwell that leaps off the page for me to be honest so it is just Newbury and Doncaster for us today. Although I have had a few quid on the double already mentioned our daily double and Lucky 15 are the following:
Double of Sustainability and Handazan - pays @ 21.5/1
Lucky 15: Sustainability, Handazan, Ballyoliver, Nameitwhatyoulike - returns £1800+ for a 50p win stake
Well they are my selections for what should be a cracking days racing. Fingers crossed the racing goes ahead! Fairly small stakes advised as a lot of selections. Tell us what you think on Twitter or feel free to comment. Good Luck to everyone, whether you follow any of ours or not.
Edit: After staying all up till the earlier hours studying the form book and race footage both meetings were abandoned, how annoying! Anyway made a few selections at SOuthwell and they are below:
Frontier Fighter/Maggie Pink Double @ 8/1
The Lock Master @ 14/1 e/w
Ryedale Dancer @ 22/1 e/w
THT
The flat season kicked off yesterday in the freezing cold at Doncaster. Some very impressive performances from the likes of Mick's Yer Man trained by Bill Turner who just can't stop winning this race. The horse was named after his great friend and rival trainer Mick Easterby who last year won this race with My Boy Bill, named after Turner. Found this quite interesting myself but each to their own eh? Another impressive winner was Mister Impatience winning for the Johnston yard which has been quiet of late, yet he did get a winner at Wolves yesterday too. The odds on shot, Model Pupil also won very comfortably.
Shotavodka also won at a very decent price all things considered. A few people mentioned it to me on Twitter that he looked an attractive price at 5/2 yet the price never really shortened, in fact it drifted out to 10/3 (I think). However, he still won a competitive race pretty well. The day started badly for favourite backers as the odds on jolly from the out of form Nicholls yard Pay The King was a well beaten third behind 33/1 shot Manballandall. Benny's Mist hacked up as expected for Venetia Williams. The less said about the desperate Wolverhampton card the better but Jamie Spencer continued his rich vein of form bagging a double.
On to Saturday where we head to Donny again for a big day on the flat, providing that it passes it's morning inspection of course, as well as Southwell on the fibresand, and Newbury for some more jumping action. We start at Doncaster. Most of these bets are very small stakes unless specified so if you like the look of one or two and decide to go for them, then I advise minimal stakes. Please excuse the fact I am being very brief today!
Can't say the first race interests me much at all, but the second race is a different story. The value in the race is certainly Thunderball at what looks a very generous 25/1. He has won over course and distance before, beating a few of these in the process. He won't mind the ground either and though competitive 1/4 odds on the first four means he is a very attractive each way proposition. I was going to leave it at that but Jamaican Bolt is another in the race I have decided to back myself. Although stepping up to 6f for this, he has winning form on worse ground at 5f so he should stay this extra trip pretty well despite the testing going today. A close second on his last run here at Donny in soft ground (beating some nice horses) and WTD in the saddle mean 10/1, though a shorter price in the context of this race is worth a solid each way punt.
The next race is just as competitive meaning an abundance of value. Nameitwhatyoulike takes my fancy. Although one of the principals he is still worth backing each way as he is widely available at 9/1 at the time of writing. He is on a hattrick after winning his last two on soft ground which he revels in. He has won here at Doncaster too which is more than can be said for some of today's rivals. In fact he is only one of two horses in today's field with a C and D victory along with Levitate who should also go well. The big danger might be Kieran Fallon's ride, Ocean Tempest yet he has to prove that his narrow success all the way back in July was no fluke.
A good run from Jamaican Bolt will frank the short priced favourite's form in the 15.15. 11/4 does looks short for Jack Dexter in my opinion and some bookies have him at the 9/4 - 2/1 mark already. He can probably be forgiven his poor run last time but I would be looking to take him on given his last two wins were by the narrowest of margins in a slightly lower grade, on ground less testing than today's. Humidor has been racing in high quality races on good ground without success and his chances will depend on how he handles the going. However, I prefer Captain Ramius. He was unsuccessfully sent to Dubai this winter and is now back where he belongs on boggy ground that he adores. He has won at 7f at Doncaster before, yet in my opinion is far more effective at 6f, which is today's distance. He really finishes his races strongly and his recent runs will have him sharper than a few of these. At 7/1 he is worth backing each way too. Captain Ramius, therefore, is the albeit, slightly tentative selection.
The Lincoln is the feature race but I can honestly say I have no strong opinion on it. As you would expect many have good claims but nothing catches the eye so I will sit back and enjoy the race, good luck if you have a flutter though. If someone really really pushed me for a pick I would have a puny stake each way on Dance and Dance as he looks a shade overpriced to me.
The races after the feature don't interest me that much, but I think Canary Wharf should go okay and may have a bit on her if she drifts to a backable e/w price, but that's unlikely to happen.
Off to Newbury now. The 14.20 looks a cracking race and Violin Davis stood out at what looked a generous 6/1. I am sure she will shorten up a bit and despite my heart telling me to back her I go with the head. She concedes weight all round to some decent opposition and despite her upward curve I can't see her holding off all this lot, especially considering she also steps up in trip. If it was 2m 4f today I would back her with a win bet but even at 6/1, the step up in trip worries me. Fentara is a proven stayer beyond today's trip and I wouldn't be surprised if she goes off pretty short as she looks the likely winner. Umming and ahhing with this one, will decide in the morning. In fact I will probably have a tiny e/w double with Harry Fry's other runner mentioned in the next race.
The 14.55 looks another cracker. Will just enjoy watching this one I think although I like Highland Retreat's chances and Queen's Grove could run a big race at a big price as I thick she can be forgiven her last run, yet will need to improve; place claims though. Good Luck if you do have a flutter!
Ballyoliver for me in the 15.30. C and D winner, won't mind conditions at all, consistent, in form trainer, good price. In fact he is even worth backing each way but I fancy he can win this. 7/1 in places looks generous even when you consider the competition. A few of these have a bit to prove at present but the ever consistent Ballyoliver looks to have things in his favour, despite a 7lb penalty. Will probably end up going each way to be safe but I think he will be hard to beat.
Handazan knows how to win and has raced in far tougher races than this in his time. 5/1 is the best price I can find at the time of writing but will be surprised if that lasts too long. Not having the two French imports for a second and Whipcrackaway looks the main threat to the selection. The Alan King trained four year old loves the heavy ground and although stepping up in trip slightly he should have enough stamina to be mounting a serious challenge at the business end of things. For those interested, I am having a small stakes double on both him and Ballyoliver at a juicy 47/1 as well as the main daily double mentioned later. NB
Sustainability is my shortest priced bet of the day at 11/4 but he looks solid. This race looks weaker than his recent contests although Keki Buku has to be respected. Lough Coi could be lively as the bottom weight although steps up in class today. Our second horse trained by Venetia Williams today but what's wrong with that eh? She is after all the handicap queen. The horse has been in good form of late only missing out on wins the last twice by narrow margins. Despite conceding weight all round she should be classy enough as the trip and ground are ideal and her last win came here at Newbury, when despite making a few mistakes at the fences, stayed on well in the closing stages over a slightly longer trip than today. NAP
Nothing at Southwell that leaps off the page for me to be honest so it is just Newbury and Doncaster for us today. Although I have had a few quid on the double already mentioned our daily double and Lucky 15 are the following:
Double of Sustainability and Handazan - pays @ 21.5/1
Lucky 15: Sustainability, Handazan, Ballyoliver, Nameitwhatyoulike - returns £1800+ for a 50p win stake
Well they are my selections for what should be a cracking days racing. Fingers crossed the racing goes ahead! Fairly small stakes advised as a lot of selections. Tell us what you think on Twitter or feel free to comment. Good Luck to everyone, whether you follow any of ours or not.
Edit: After staying all up till the earlier hours studying the form book and race footage both meetings were abandoned, how annoying! Anyway made a few selections at SOuthwell and they are below:
Frontier Fighter/Maggie Pink Double @ 8/1
The Lock Master @ 14/1 e/w
Ryedale Dancer @ 22/1 e/w
THT
Wednesday, 20 March 2013
Thursday 21st March
Morning all. Yesterday was a strange one at Kempton with just the one favourite (odds on) obliging and on reflection as I already mentioned on Twitter I should not have bet. In hindsight the races were competitive, trappy little affairs and any of the runners could have won. So my apologies for that. However Annacotty won which would have been my choice if we were only guaranteed one winner as the horse and his owners/trainers mean something to me personally. I was delighted for them and he looks a really nice prospect. Seymour Eric's 50lb worth of penalties since his winning run started finally caught up with him though I haven't actually seen the race so not sure how far he was beaten. AP found himself smoking a cigar on the favourite again but we all are used to that now.
Melvin the Grate was arguably the most interesting runner for us yesterday as the random text with the 'guaranteed winner' came up trumps as he went in at around the 5/2 mark. I didn't back it as I was sceptical, but I know a few did, so it was worthwhile me sharing what he had sent me at least. Wonder where this will go next, will certainly pay more attention next time if there is a next time, that's for sure.
We move on to today's racing, nothing I fancy really, one of those weird days. Very competitive stuff at Wolves, the 15.05 should be a cracker, will happily watch that one with no money on the line, claims can be made for almost every runner. As I mentioned on Twitter, anyone who picks out the winner of that one in my eyes should take a bow. If I was pushed for a pick I would go with Reginald Claude but only because I have a love for the horse. The way he has to be ridden, in case you don't know is to deliver him very very late on, well inside the final furlong, and he responds like Rachael Kneller presses an accelerator, he flies! Sometimes too late however like in the last few runs he has had. Looking over all his form you see he has been described as running on late or staying on well, or running on strongly but as he is delivered so late his winning margins are very narrow. Quirky character to say the least! Anyway, I will be cheering him on but there are many in the race I have backed before. Might even have a few quid on him each way, especially if he drifts a little! Good Luck if you are brave/foolish enough to try and pick a winner out of that one!
Was going to leave the racing altogether but then I saw the name Icanboogie. Christ knows what attracted me to have a look at his form but I had heard of him and something made me have a look. Anyway I spotted that he has only one recent previous run at Kempton where he finished 2nd. Okay, great, so what? Well the winner of that race was Taxiformissbyron who then went on to win again and then lost by a nose the next time. Hmm I thought pretty good form. By the way this was before I looked at any prices. Then a few names he beat that day caught my eye. Firstly was Poetic Verse. He finished a couple behind Icanboogie but then went on to win his next race, then was second to Gabrial the Duke who then himself went on to win his next race and then a close second the race after. GTD runs earlier in the day at Wolves so him going well will frank the form a little bit more. (Still with me?) Going back to Poetic Verse. After his win and close second after being beaten by Icanboogie he then went on to win another race. But that's not all. Precision Strike, who finished a good five or six lengths behind Icanboogie that day has since gone on to win his last two races, all be it not the strongest of affairs. So I thought it was at least worth checking the prices.
I should point out Robert Tart is on board today, the same jock who was riding in the race I mentioned. You should also note that with the seven pound claim taken into account the horse is effectively a stone lighter than anything else unless I am mistaken and we all know the boy can ride and is well worth his claim. So in my mind the horse should be around a 16/1 shot. I find it is always good to price up the horses in your mind before looking at the actual prices as seeing the prices when picking a horse can influence your judgement. So I went to oddschecker and when I saw he was the outsider of the lot at 33/1 I got a little bit excited, probably too excited actually. After all he is the lowest rated horse in the field.
I know many will think, well you are only looking at one race, what about his recent poor form? I would ask the same question. Firstly I think course form is a lot more important than people think. We saw it at the festival recently, nearly all winners had previous course experience. Kempton is also ran the other way to Lingers and Wolves and while many people think so what, I think it can make a huge difference.
However, we can't get away from his recent bad runs. Last time out was by far his worst run. A tailed off fifth in a weakish sort of race. However, that was his first ever experience on the Southwell fibresand surface and he clearly didn't take a liking to it. We see time and again prolific winners at Kempton/Lingers/Wolves go off to Southwell and end up nowhere and vice-versa. Some horses take to it, some don't. So in my mind I am completely forgiving him that one. So going back to his last race on AW... A new jockey was tried and he came last of four, fairly tailed off but he wasn't being ridden after he was beaten. He was again behind Taxiformissbyron, who missed out by a nose (mentioned earlier) and Byroness who has since gone on to complete a hattrick since then. So again the form is fairly decent. Also we know that Icanboogie can get to a length or so of TFMB so that was not a true reflection in my opinion as TFMB has improved a great deal with experience.
Anyway I could ramble on all morning but will summarize now. Today's race is probably the weakest Icanboogie has contested in. I think he is capable of beating all these except the favourite and I will be surprised if it doesn't start odds on. However, if the favourite runs a bad one I genuinely believe our sole selection could be there at the business end. Remember, all he has to do to outrun his price is not finish last, as he is the outsider of the whole lot and I am very confident he can beat a fair few of these. My point is, is that he is overpriced, in my opinion at least, therefore I will be backing him each way at 33/1. Not often I back a price as big as this on a Thursday evening at Kempton but I think we may be on to something here, I bloody better hope so as this is one of the longest write ups I have ever done for a horse! However I think it was needed to explain why I am picking a 33/1 shot. Anyway, just stick a quid on each way for yourselves and watch it go close, that's the plan anyway! Tart on board, Tart's claimer, stone lower than rivals, solid form, solid course form, weakish race are the positives. The only real negative I can see is the fact that this trip is slightly longer than he has been tried at before, something that I haven't mentioned yet, but this does concern me. However I am still very happy to back at 33's, whether you are or not I don't know! I just hope it doesn't all go to pot, but to be honest I will be delighted if he places and you never know, you won't ever hit a 33/1 winner if you don't back any horses at said price!
20.00 Kempton - Icanboogie @ 33/1 (1pt e/w)
Good Luck all!
THT
Melvin the Grate was arguably the most interesting runner for us yesterday as the random text with the 'guaranteed winner' came up trumps as he went in at around the 5/2 mark. I didn't back it as I was sceptical, but I know a few did, so it was worthwhile me sharing what he had sent me at least. Wonder where this will go next, will certainly pay more attention next time if there is a next time, that's for sure.
We move on to today's racing, nothing I fancy really, one of those weird days. Very competitive stuff at Wolves, the 15.05 should be a cracker, will happily watch that one with no money on the line, claims can be made for almost every runner. As I mentioned on Twitter, anyone who picks out the winner of that one in my eyes should take a bow. If I was pushed for a pick I would go with Reginald Claude but only because I have a love for the horse. The way he has to be ridden, in case you don't know is to deliver him very very late on, well inside the final furlong, and he responds like Rachael Kneller presses an accelerator, he flies! Sometimes too late however like in the last few runs he has had. Looking over all his form you see he has been described as running on late or staying on well, or running on strongly but as he is delivered so late his winning margins are very narrow. Quirky character to say the least! Anyway, I will be cheering him on but there are many in the race I have backed before. Might even have a few quid on him each way, especially if he drifts a little! Good Luck if you are brave/foolish enough to try and pick a winner out of that one!
Was going to leave the racing altogether but then I saw the name Icanboogie. Christ knows what attracted me to have a look at his form but I had heard of him and something made me have a look. Anyway I spotted that he has only one recent previous run at Kempton where he finished 2nd. Okay, great, so what? Well the winner of that race was Taxiformissbyron who then went on to win again and then lost by a nose the next time. Hmm I thought pretty good form. By the way this was before I looked at any prices. Then a few names he beat that day caught my eye. Firstly was Poetic Verse. He finished a couple behind Icanboogie but then went on to win his next race, then was second to Gabrial the Duke who then himself went on to win his next race and then a close second the race after. GTD runs earlier in the day at Wolves so him going well will frank the form a little bit more. (Still with me?) Going back to Poetic Verse. After his win and close second after being beaten by Icanboogie he then went on to win another race. But that's not all. Precision Strike, who finished a good five or six lengths behind Icanboogie that day has since gone on to win his last two races, all be it not the strongest of affairs. So I thought it was at least worth checking the prices.
I should point out Robert Tart is on board today, the same jock who was riding in the race I mentioned. You should also note that with the seven pound claim taken into account the horse is effectively a stone lighter than anything else unless I am mistaken and we all know the boy can ride and is well worth his claim. So in my mind the horse should be around a 16/1 shot. I find it is always good to price up the horses in your mind before looking at the actual prices as seeing the prices when picking a horse can influence your judgement. So I went to oddschecker and when I saw he was the outsider of the lot at 33/1 I got a little bit excited, probably too excited actually. After all he is the lowest rated horse in the field.
I know many will think, well you are only looking at one race, what about his recent poor form? I would ask the same question. Firstly I think course form is a lot more important than people think. We saw it at the festival recently, nearly all winners had previous course experience. Kempton is also ran the other way to Lingers and Wolves and while many people think so what, I think it can make a huge difference.
However, we can't get away from his recent bad runs. Last time out was by far his worst run. A tailed off fifth in a weakish sort of race. However, that was his first ever experience on the Southwell fibresand surface and he clearly didn't take a liking to it. We see time and again prolific winners at Kempton/Lingers/Wolves go off to Southwell and end up nowhere and vice-versa. Some horses take to it, some don't. So in my mind I am completely forgiving him that one. So going back to his last race on AW... A new jockey was tried and he came last of four, fairly tailed off but he wasn't being ridden after he was beaten. He was again behind Taxiformissbyron, who missed out by a nose (mentioned earlier) and Byroness who has since gone on to complete a hattrick since then. So again the form is fairly decent. Also we know that Icanboogie can get to a length or so of TFMB so that was not a true reflection in my opinion as TFMB has improved a great deal with experience.
Anyway I could ramble on all morning but will summarize now. Today's race is probably the weakest Icanboogie has contested in. I think he is capable of beating all these except the favourite and I will be surprised if it doesn't start odds on. However, if the favourite runs a bad one I genuinely believe our sole selection could be there at the business end. Remember, all he has to do to outrun his price is not finish last, as he is the outsider of the whole lot and I am very confident he can beat a fair few of these. My point is, is that he is overpriced, in my opinion at least, therefore I will be backing him each way at 33/1. Not often I back a price as big as this on a Thursday evening at Kempton but I think we may be on to something here, I bloody better hope so as this is one of the longest write ups I have ever done for a horse! However I think it was needed to explain why I am picking a 33/1 shot. Anyway, just stick a quid on each way for yourselves and watch it go close, that's the plan anyway! Tart on board, Tart's claimer, stone lower than rivals, solid form, solid course form, weakish race are the positives. The only real negative I can see is the fact that this trip is slightly longer than he has been tried at before, something that I haven't mentioned yet, but this does concern me. However I am still very happy to back at 33's, whether you are or not I don't know! I just hope it doesn't all go to pot, but to be honest I will be delighted if he places and you never know, you won't ever hit a 33/1 winner if you don't back any horses at said price!
20.00 Kempton - Icanboogie @ 33/1 (1pt e/w)
Good Luck all!
THT
THT Racing
Welcome to the new blog. As many of you will know I have changed my username on Twitter and I am no longer a 'tipster.' I made the decision to just share my thoughts on racing instead of actually tipping for a few reasons. I think it will be more fun as there will be less pressure doing it like this but I can still offer my suggestions as to what I think is the likely winner of a certain race. Furthermore I think we are now more approachable to people as we are now a punter just like most of our followers rather than being a glorified tipster. I hope it is the right decision, and as I say we will still be offering our picks, mostly on a daily basis. I will aim to provide a daily double and a Lucky 15 as I know a lot of people like their multiples as do I myself. I will display all my bets on here, and it will be more of a 'bet share' than actual tipping. I would love to know your thoughts and whether you think you have any good bets yourself, please feel free to comment or give us a mention on Twitter.
I was going to wait until Friday for the beginning of the flat season but after yesterday's relative success, and considering the fact I think we should do really well today, I have decided to start a few days early. Here are all my bets for today's racing.
14.40 Haydock Seymour Eric @ 7/2
15.45 Haydock Robbie @ 3/1
16.50 Haydock Annacotty @ 2/1
18.15 Kempton Scommettitrice @ 13/2
18.45 Kempton Rightcar @ 4/1
20.45 Kempton Rakaan @ 8/1
21.15 Kempton Supa Seeker @ 9/2
Annacotty/Robbie double @ 12/1
Rightcar/Supa Seeker double @ 26.5/1
Haydock Treble @ 55/1
Lucky 15:
Annacotty, Robbie, Supa Seeker, Rightcar.
Returns just over £900 for a £1 stake.
Good Luck all.
Thanks for taking the time to read my blog, as I say, please let me know your thoughts. It's a game of opinions after all!
THT
I was going to wait until Friday for the beginning of the flat season but after yesterday's relative success, and considering the fact I think we should do really well today, I have decided to start a few days early. Here are all my bets for today's racing.
14.40 Haydock Seymour Eric @ 7/2
15.45 Haydock Robbie @ 3/1
16.50 Haydock Annacotty @ 2/1
18.15 Kempton Scommettitrice @ 13/2
18.45 Kempton Rightcar @ 4/1
20.45 Kempton Rakaan @ 8/1
21.15 Kempton Supa Seeker @ 9/2
Annacotty/Robbie double @ 12/1
Rightcar/Supa Seeker double @ 26.5/1
Haydock Treble @ 55/1
Lucky 15:
Annacotty, Robbie, Supa Seeker, Rightcar.
Returns just over £900 for a £1 stake.
Good Luck all.
Thanks for taking the time to read my blog, as I say, please let me know your thoughts. It's a game of opinions after all!
THT
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