Morning all. Our 33/1 longshot couldn't cut it unfortunately. Despite moving menacingly and looking like he was going to mount a serious challenge, the step up in trip ultimately cost him as he weakened in the final furlong to the rear end of the field. Still think he is worth keeping an eye on back at the mile in weakish company, could be a big price. I don't regret backing a 33/1 shot as I honestly thought he had a big chance if seeing out the trip and was genuinely gutted as I know plenty had a few quid on him e/w. Anyway we move on.
The flat season kicked off yesterday in the freezing cold at Doncaster. Some very impressive performances from the likes of Mick's Yer Man trained by Bill Turner who just can't stop winning this race. The horse was named after his great friend and rival trainer Mick Easterby who last year won this race with My Boy Bill, named after Turner. Found this quite interesting myself but each to their own eh? Another impressive winner was Mister Impatience winning for the Johnston yard which has been quiet of late, yet he did get a winner at Wolves yesterday too. The odds on shot, Model Pupil also won very comfortably.
Shotavodka also won at a very decent price all things considered. A few people mentioned it to me on Twitter that he looked an attractive price at 5/2 yet the price never really shortened, in fact it drifted out to 10/3 (I think). However, he still won a competitive race pretty well. The day started badly for favourite backers as the odds on jolly from the out of form Nicholls yard Pay The King was a well beaten third behind 33/1 shot Manballandall. Benny's Mist hacked up as expected for Venetia Williams. The less said about the desperate Wolverhampton card the better but Jamie Spencer continued his rich vein of form bagging a double.
On to Saturday where we head to Donny again for a big day on the flat, providing that it passes it's morning inspection of course, as well as Southwell on the fibresand, and Newbury for some more jumping action. We start at Doncaster. Most of these bets are very small stakes unless specified so if you like the look of one or two and decide to go for them, then I advise minimal stakes. Please excuse the fact I am being very brief today!
Can't say the first race interests me much at all, but the second race is a different story. The value in the race is certainly Thunderball at what looks a very generous 25/1. He has won over course and distance before, beating a few of these in the process. He won't mind the ground either and though competitive 1/4 odds on the first four means he is a very attractive each way proposition. I was going to leave it at that but Jamaican Bolt is another in the race I have decided to back myself. Although stepping up to 6f for this, he has winning form on worse ground at 5f so he should stay this extra trip pretty well despite the testing going today. A close second on his last run here at Donny in soft ground (beating some nice horses) and WTD in the saddle mean 10/1, though a shorter price in the context of this race is worth a solid each way punt.
The next race is just as competitive meaning an abundance of value. Nameitwhatyoulike takes my fancy. Although one of the principals he is still worth backing each way as he is widely available at 9/1 at the time of writing. He is on a hattrick after winning his last two on soft ground which he revels in. He has won here at Doncaster too which is more than can be said for some of today's rivals. In fact he is only one of two horses in today's field with a C and D victory along with Levitate who should also go well. The big danger might be Kieran Fallon's ride, Ocean Tempest yet he has to prove that his narrow success all the way back in July was no fluke.
A good run from Jamaican Bolt will frank the short priced favourite's form in the 15.15. 11/4 does looks short for Jack Dexter in my opinion and some bookies have him at the 9/4 - 2/1 mark already. He can probably be forgiven his poor run last time but I would be looking to take him on given his last two wins were by the narrowest of margins in a slightly lower grade, on ground less testing than today's. Humidor has been racing in high quality races on good ground without success and his chances will depend on how he handles the going. However, I prefer Captain Ramius. He was unsuccessfully sent to Dubai this winter and is now back where he belongs on boggy ground that he adores. He has won at 7f at Doncaster before, yet in my opinion is far more effective at 6f, which is today's distance. He really finishes his races strongly and his recent runs will have him sharper than a few of these. At 7/1 he is worth backing each way too. Captain Ramius, therefore, is the albeit, slightly tentative selection.
The Lincoln is the feature race but I can honestly say I have no strong opinion on it. As you would expect many have good claims but nothing catches the eye so I will sit back and enjoy the race, good luck if you have a flutter though. If someone really really pushed me for a pick I would have a puny stake each way on Dance and Dance as he looks a shade overpriced to me.
The races after the feature don't interest me that much, but I think Canary Wharf should go okay and may have a bit on her if she drifts to a backable e/w price, but that's unlikely to happen.
Off to Newbury now. The 14.20 looks a cracking race and Violin Davis stood out at what looked a generous 6/1. I am sure she will shorten up a bit and despite my heart telling me to back her I go with the head. She concedes weight all round to some decent opposition and despite her upward curve I can't see her holding off all this lot, especially considering she also steps up in trip. If it was 2m 4f today I would back her with a win bet but even at 6/1, the step up in trip worries me. Fentara is a proven stayer beyond today's trip and I wouldn't be surprised if she goes off pretty short as she looks the likely winner. Umming and ahhing with this one, will decide in the morning. In fact I will probably have a tiny e/w double with Harry Fry's other runner mentioned in the next race.
The 14.55 looks another cracker. Will just enjoy watching this one I think although I like Highland Retreat's chances and Queen's Grove could run a big race at a big price as I thick she can be forgiven her last run, yet will need to improve; place claims though. Good Luck if you do have a flutter!
Ballyoliver for me in the 15.30. C and D winner, won't mind conditions at all, consistent, in form trainer, good price. In fact he is even worth backing each way but I fancy he can win this. 7/1 in places looks generous even when you consider the competition. A few of these have a bit to prove at present but the ever consistent Ballyoliver looks to have things in his favour, despite a 7lb penalty. Will probably end up going each way to be safe but I think he will be hard to beat.
Handazan knows how to win and has raced in far tougher races than this in his time. 5/1 is the best price I can find at the time of writing but will be surprised if that lasts too long. Not having the two French imports for a second and Whipcrackaway looks the main threat to the selection. The Alan King trained four year old loves the heavy ground and although stepping up in trip slightly he should have enough stamina to be mounting a serious challenge at the business end of things. For those interested, I am having a small stakes double on both him and Ballyoliver at a juicy 47/1 as well as the main daily double mentioned later. NB
Sustainability is my shortest priced bet of the day at 11/4 but he looks solid. This race looks weaker than his recent contests although Keki Buku has to be respected. Lough Coi could be lively as the bottom weight although steps up in class today. Our second horse trained by Venetia Williams today but what's wrong with that eh? She is after all the handicap queen. The horse has been in good form of late only missing out on wins the last twice by narrow margins. Despite conceding weight all round she should be classy enough as the trip and ground are ideal and her last win came here at Newbury, when despite making a few mistakes at the fences, stayed on well in the closing stages over a slightly longer trip than today. NAP
Nothing at Southwell that leaps off the page for me to be honest so it is just Newbury and Doncaster for us today. Although I have had a few quid on the double already mentioned our daily double and Lucky 15 are the following:
Double of Sustainability and Handazan - pays @ 21.5/1
Lucky 15: Sustainability, Handazan, Ballyoliver, Nameitwhatyoulike - returns £1800+ for a 50p win stake
Well they are my selections for what should be a cracking days racing. Fingers crossed the racing goes ahead! Fairly small stakes advised as a lot of selections. Tell us what you think on Twitter or feel free to comment. Good Luck to everyone, whether you follow any of ours or not.
Edit: After staying all up till the earlier hours studying the form book and race footage both meetings were abandoned, how annoying! Anyway made a few selections at SOuthwell and they are below:
Frontier Fighter/Maggie Pink Double @ 8/1
The Lock Master @ 14/1 e/w
Ryedale Dancer @ 22/1 e/w
THT
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