Monday 25th March

Decent end to the week as our NB went in at 6/1 meaning good profit. 19pts returned from the 2pt e/w stake advised, shame it wasn't a 4pt win! He won really well to and credit has to go to Cathy Gannon, despite her nearly throwing the race by going for a gap that was never there on the inside. She had to switch Al outside which halted his momentum but he stayed on well and won by half a length with plenty of horses putting pressure on right behind. He will probably be worth sticking with next time as he won nicely despite the bad luck in running mentioned.  We also gave a mention on Twitter to the 33/1 outsider of the field (66/1 available earlier in the day) as he was wearing headgear for the first time and was the highest rated in the field and he finished second. Had a tiny e/w stake on myself, shame I didn't stick it on the blog as a selection! The race our NAP ran in was a very strange one. He was held up in the back where he likes to be in his races and Beauchamp Xerxes was given an uncontested lead by the field. The slowish pace was against our selection from the off and after BX kicked clear nothing stood a chance. Joey Haynes opted for the inside at first which was a mistake but he could do nothing as everything in front of him was being ridden miles out. He got stuck behind horses that were slowing and when he eventually found space Total Obsession stayed on better than most despite the fast pace he prefers not being there for him to run at. Finished 3rd in the end behind Ann Stokell's horse in 2nd but ahead of the favourite but luckily my cover bet on BX who was dropping down a grade or two came in, yet I was still very disappointed by the way the race was run, especially with Al's Memory winning earlier in the day to kick off the 29/1 double.

Anyway on to Monday where we have just the one card on the all weather at Lingers. For me the card makes for pretty poor reading but there are a fewhorses I think are substantially overpriced. Summary of races and my bets below.

14.10 - Selling stakes are rarely the type of race I bet on, this one no different. No strong opinion at all yet Prince of Burma, significantly dropping in class looks the likeliest winner. Can't imagine many will seriously be betting on him if he starts odds on as expected though.

14.40 - Marmot Bay will likely be called a Non-Runner in the morning. That's all I have to say for this race.

15.10 - One of the better races of the day, plenty with chances.  I am firmly against the favourite however as I stated on Twitter. Firstly he can only seem to run well at right handed tracks like Kempton and 7f is not his trip. When he last tried 7f it was actually at his preferred track but he came 12th of 13.  If he was running another 6f race on a right handed track he would be of interest but here he looks worth laying and to be honest he isn't the type to follow up anyway, especially with a penalty to contend with. Yankee Storm has claims after his good win last time, but needs a strong pace and isn't one of the likelier types to follow up. 7f is his trip though so he has that going for him. Valdaw is in the form of his life but he does all his racing at 6f, yet he was a close second on his only previous try at 7f in recent months. He has been tried at 1m twice where he wasn't disgraced in his 3rd and 6th placings. Claims, but too short for me as he is unbackable each way at the prices. Satwa Laird and Sannibel look pretty safe to discount yet the latter could easily pop up in the places in a race like this and Satwa Laird is below her last winning mark. Lord of the Dance makes a lot of appeal to me though as does The Happy Hammer as they both offer great value at 16/1 the pair. West Leake should also go close and looks a tad overpriced to me too. LOTD will be winning a race like this soon, and it could be his turn today. He often races at 1m so he will stay out today's trip better than some of these and ran well in defeat last time. He rarely races at Lingfield but I fancy him to run a big race tomorrow. THH, despite being the outsider of the field at time of writing has solid place claims imo. He usually runs in slightly stronger races than today's and has beaten plenty of subsequent winners recently. A C and D winner too, 14/1 looks pretty big as he can be forgiven his run last time at a right handed track and a different trip. Decided to also do a little any order tricast with the the couple we have backed e/w and West Leake as a little fun bet too.

15.40 - The only interesting thing I have to say about this race is what I said on Twitter. Rooknrasbryripple finished three lengths ahead of Catalina's Diamond last time yet is priced 25/1 while Catalina is 9/2. They re-oppose on exactly the same terms including same course and distance.

16.10 - No opinion, no bet.

16.40 - Anything could win this but we go with the ever consistent El Libertador each way at a huge 10/1. This race looks significantly weaker than his recent contests too, so a place is almost guaranteed imo unless he gets terrible luck in running or gets injured. He has a great chance of getting a 1 on the formbook rather than 2's and 3's here and looks massively overpriced.

17.10 - This race looks another decent contest, in the context of a Monday afternoon on the A/W anyway. Mubtadi the worthy favourite but worth taking on I think. This one is competitive and plenty have hopes. Chrissycross has been running perfectly well but does look a tad underpriced, even with Hughes in the saddle. She should be winning soon however and I wouldn't be surprised to see her run a big race. Didn't back Bernisdale last time after seriously considering it then watched him win very comfortably over a longer trip at Wolves. This may be a bit sharp for him though despite the appealing 12/1 on offer. Overall, as I said many with claims but all things considered I think Sail Home looks the best value bet in the race. She won convincingly last time she raced over C and D finishing like a train beating the re-opposing (and shorter priced today) Ogaritmo by 2-3 lengths. She was dropped back in trip to a distance that doesn't suit last time but despite looking outpaced on the turn, stayed on toward the end to finish a decent fourth to subsequent winner Maggie Pink which is pretty good going considering she prefers further. With form of 3431 over C and D and not being beaten by more than two lengths in any defeat over today's track and journey she looks massive at 16/1 and is worth a decent e/w punt. Rivals Understory and Conducting have both beaten her before but the former is inconsistent despite having the recent beating of the latter and I fancy Sail Home will come out top of this trio at the very least.


15.10 Lord of the Dance @ 22/1 - 0.5pts e/w Won (+14.75pts)
15.10 The Happy Hammer @ 20/1 - 0.5pts e/w
16.40 El Libertador @ 10/1 - 1.5pts e/w
17.10 Sail Home @ 22/1 - 1pt e/w

Lay of the Day: 15.10 - Elusive Hawk @ 6/4 - (8/15 not to win) Won (+/- N/A as no stake advised)

As you can see we have gone for value today like usual with our four picks being a minimum price of 10/1. My better two bets would be El Libertador and Sail Home, will be disappointed if they both don't at least place and an each way double at 252/1 has to be worth a few quid! Good Luck all. :-)

Great day as Lord of the Dance won in nice style at 20/1 despite the loose horse which happened to be our other pick, all but ending our lay of the day's chances! Isn't that weird? Anyway we also landed a 31/1 treble that we mentioned on Twitter and glad to hear some got on it but I should have put it on the blog, don't know why I didn't! Another one I mentioned on the Twitter was an any order tricast of the horses that ended the race one two three at 20/1, 20/1 and 13/2, which would have been a huge pay day. Just a shame The Happy Hammer had no one on board!! We also landed a 3/1 double and a 16/1 score prediction on the footy this evening, what a day! Anyway hope you got on board, had great fun, back tomorrow!

THT