Tuesday 26th March

What a great day Monday was. Said on Sunday we usually do well on Monday's and we had one of our biggest days yet. A 20/1 winner (yes I know it was lucky but we were definitely due some luck!) was followed by a 31/1 treble we mentioned on twitter. Then after the dust had settled on the racing we turned our attention to the footy where we advised a double of England U21's to keep a clean sheet and BTTS in the Brazil/Russia game which returned at an appealing 3/1. We also landed a 16/1 winner as we advised a 4-0 score prediction in the England game. We fancied 2-2 in the Russia/Brazil game but it only ended 1-1 and our draw no bet mention on Russia at 10/3 returned the stake. Never good to get too carried away but days like Monday are worth savouring, I know a few got on some of the bets but still not as many as I would have liked! As I have said before and will say time and time again, you have to stick with someone and have faith, or you simply can not expect to make long term profit!! Anyway, Tuesday to look forward to now with racing from Fontwell, Lingfield and Southwell to get stuck in to.

Lingfield 2.20 - Gabrial The Duke has run over today's C and D plenty of times and looks the likely winner to me as he has been running against better opposition than most of the rest. The threat from Day In Day Out is slightly worriyng me however and Lady Lunchalot stepping up in trip and priced at 25/1 on betfair at time of writing looks overpriced despite her recent poor run. Brick Rising a danger too. GTD is pretty short though and will be going into some sort of multiple if anything at all.

Lingfield 2.50 - Ihtikar caught my eye in this one as he came fourth in a decent race on debut. The three in front of him that day have all gone on to win since then and he also had a dual subsequent winner well beaten four lengths behind him. For any horse that would look good but as that was Ithikar's debut, that form looks very impressive especially when you also take a closer look at his breeding. He has a nice pedigree that suggests middle distances will suit him well and today's step up in trip might eke out even more improvement. He finished the race well despite being shoved along a fair way out after being bumped around. In my opinion if he runs to that standard he will come out on top here, but with normal improvement expected and the step up in trip sure to suit, he looks an attractive proposition. My one worry would be he has not raced for five months but don't forget that some of these have never raced at all. I am not Hayley Turner's biggest fan but I know plenty rate her very highly and she and the trainer are bang in form of late which is encouraging. Not many prices out at the time of writing but it seems he will open at around 3/1 second fav behind a newcomer from what I can tell so far and he is likely to have some of my money behind him.

Lingfield 3.20 - Hate these types of races, from a betting point of view anyway, no bet for me.

Lingfield 3.50 - Was expecting Desert Donkey to be one of the principals for this one but to see him available at 6/1 was a surprise. He ran very well last time he was here only beaten off by a short head, despite it being a fairly weak race. He has been tried at Kempton twice since, without success but today looks an easier opportunity than either of those. He was well backed on his last run at Lingers and again two races ago and the moves were quite significant if I remember rightly. It is worth keeping an eye on failed gambles as all too often they pop up a race or two later. 6/1 looks like he is worth backing e/w to me as you will still profit even if he places at that price, and has a great chance with the promising apprentice Thomas Brown up in the saddle for the first time.

Lingfield 4.20 - This one looks a really nice race. The only two I am discounting are Storm Runner and King Vahe, the two outsiders! Avertis looks overpriced at 8/1 considering his C and D form reads 113 yet the races look pretty weak, but he has fair place claims. Mafi has become a different horse since dropped down to the mile and is on a C and D hattrick despite finishing 3rd over at Kempton last time out where he finished a short head behind the re-opposing Brocklebank yet Mafi should reverse the running today especially with Thomas Brown's claim taken into account and he looks big at 7's. However Brocklebank saves his best for Lingers so to see him go close wouldn't be a great surprise. Xinbama has one piece of eye catching form, a short head behind Layali Dubai, a horse my long term followers know I love. She then went on to win her next four races beating Xinbama by a bit further once again on one of those occasions. This race looks less competitive so he isn't without a chance, though has been off the track for five months and may not be sharp enough today. Dutch Old Master drops in class for this one and has already at the time of writing been the subject of a gamble. Over 50% of the money so far has been for him. His last run at Lingers he won, although only by the narrowest of margins and a furlong shorter than today's trip almost a year ago. Dutch Old Master didn't run especially well last time however at Kempton only 6 days ago finishing 9th of 13. Ryan Moore in the saddle today so she is expected to go well but I fancy one or two might be too strong for her. As you can see a very competitive race and I haven't even mentioned the favourite yet. Lily Edge is a horse we have backed the last twice when she has ran out the fast finishing winner on both occasions. She still has bags of potential and is likely to keep improving and is worth sticking with once more, despite this being a slightly stiffer test than she has faced before. Last race she had to switch in and out in the last few furlongs (being hampered in running is a worry as she likes to be ridden in the rear) but flew home like usual and won it nicely. What was more impressive though was that she was slightly slow out of the stalls and more so that the race was run at a slow pace. Lily Edge needs a fast pace to see the best of her and she should get that today back at the track where she came 2nd at 66/1 on her debut. I am sticking with Lily as she has made me money before and despite the competitive nature of this race, she is unexposed and there should be even more to come. Mafi looks the chief threat and an e/w cover bet might be worth the while.

Lingfield 4.50 - Tried and tried to find a reason to take on Wordiness in this but I can't see past him in truth. Evens may look big come the end of the race and he is worth adding to a multiple or two. Surprised he isn't odds on, this looks much easier than his recent races.

Lingfield 5.20 - Total Obsession makes a quick re-appearance as connections, like myself obviously fancied his chances the other day when the race didn't go to plan at all. He will go off a bigger price today subsequently. Mentioned all my reasons for backing him then and they remain the same, yet this looks a little weaker, more to beat however. The favourite is likely to be Young Jackie who disappointed last time when Total Obsession finished a couple ahead of him in first place. She should finish closer to the selection this time but I fancy Total Obsession to go well again and feel he has another big race in him providing he doesn't get bad luck in running like last time out when nothing went right. Worth backing each way too at 6/1 as you will still profit should he only manage a place.

Fancy nothing at Southwell whatsoever, looks a pretty weak card to be honest and everything I like at Fontwell is too short. I am sure Orange Nassau is better than he has shown so far though and would not be surprised to see him pop up, no bets at either of the other two meetings for me however.

Singles:

NAP - Lingfield 2.50 - Ihtikar @ 3/1 - (3pt win)
NB - Lingfield 4.20 - Lily Edge @ 5/2 - (2pt win)

Lingfield 3.50 - Desert Donkey @ 6/1 (1pt e/w)
Lingfield 4.20 - Mafi @ 7/1 (1pt e/w)
Lingfield 5.20 - Total Obsession @ 6/1 (1pt e/w) NR (+2pts)


Ihtikar, Lily Edge, Wordiness - 1pt doubles (3pts total)


1pt treble (Lily Edge, Wordiness, Ihtikar) @ 27/1


Lucky 15:

Ihtikar, Lily Edge, Wordiness, Total Obsession (NR) - Replace with Desert Donkey.

Returns £518 for a £1 stake.


Decided to NAP Ihtikar as don't like making my best bet anything at 2/1 or less, though Wordiness isn't getting beaten imo. Nothing screams out massive value to me, as shown by the prices being shorter than the prices we usually back at. Good Luck if you jump on board any of ours today, hoping for another big one!


THT