Racing Debates - What is Value?

There are so many misconceptions amongst the average punter in regards to value in my opinion. Below I give my very simplified take on value for the average punter. First of all what is value? Value for the everday bettor is solely based on an opinion. I.E - is the horse a bigger price than you expected? Does the horse have a greater chance of winning than the price suggests? The way I have always worked out a race is first of all look through the recent form of the runners, yard form, C/D winner etc and everything else in between. I don't look at forecast prices and I don't look at the early markets. I price up the race myself roughly in my head, (sometimes written down if really in the mood!) then I will open up oddschecker and see where we stand. Don't get me wrong, I have literally had entire markets completely upside down but by doing this you can compare your thoughts and the bookmakers and then try and find out why there is such a difference, if any.

There is always this battle of wit between punter and bookmaker, trying to out-smart eachother. Bookies sometimes offer surprisingly big prices and sucking people in (Captain Cat a good recent example) but the thing people forget is that bookmakers make mistakes. They price races up wrong, intentionally or otherwise. Happens everyday,  nearly every race, there will always be at least one or two runners whose odds don't reflect anything like the horse's realistic chances of winning the race. Generally a runner catches the eye when first scanning the card and that's the one you concentrate on.
If the horse is a 5/1 poke in your head but a firm are offering 10/1, the first thing to do is ask why? Is there something you have missed? I go back, look again make sure I am happy with my 5/1 evaluation. Sometimes I am, sometimes I see I have missed something huge and the horse is suddenly 20's in my head. The key is being honest with yourself, discipline is the number one necessity in this game. If I can't find any reason why it is available to back at a double figure price, I would likely have a bet as I deem the bet to be good VALUE. I know this is really simplified but I don't want to go on all day.

The above doesn't consider bookies overrounds (approx 115% to 125%) so you have to be careful. You can't just make up your own market at any prices you please. There are various overround calculators out there to keep you on track. Alternitavely, you could use the forecast SP's as a reference. Problem is the person who has done those needs to know what they are talking about, and I have seen forecast SP's of 16/1 open at 5/2 and vice versa. Saying that, for those new to racing and the mathematics of betting, using the forecast SP's as a reference to actual prices available can be a good way to start to understand value.

The other thing worth mentioning is that value is more relevant and noticeable at shorter prices. If you have a horse at 20/1 in your mind but 33/1 is available you may think because there is 13pts difference that you have found a gold mine. Realistically this is not the case. Despite there being a big difference in terms of points, literally a few pounds can move a horse 33/1>>20/1  in the overnight market, and in the seconds before a race bookies can throw a 20/1 poke out to 33/1 in a blink of an eye. At your price and the bookmakers, the horse has a very slim chance of winning anyway, the difference isn't worth reading too much in to. However, if you have one priced at even money in your head and you see 7/4 available, this is the time to seriously consider having a bet. You may not think evs and 7/4 are that much different but see the comparison below.

The maths:

20/1 shot - 4.8% chance of winning
33/1 shot - 2.9% chance of winning

= 1.9% difference

Evs shot - 50% chance of winning
7/4 shot - 36.4% chance of winning

= 13.6% difference

This explains perfectly what I am trying to say. In these examples, the short prices are around seven times more relavant as a % difference than the bigger prices. This is partly because it takes a whole heap of cash to move a horse into even money from 7/4. Obviously the above is assuming you are a good judge, but as I said earlier, value is all about opinion. While opinions can never be right or wrong, you will find they get more accurate the more races you study and as you get a greater understanding of the mathematics behind the markets and bookmaking in general.

Remember a 1/4 shot can still be value. If you think the horse has a higher percentage of winning than his odds suggest, then true value punters should still see this as a betting opportunity. If the horse is a 1/8 poke in your head then there is a 8.9% difference in the bookmaker odds and the odds you think that best reflect the horse's chances. This means that effectively you are getting over four times the VALUE backing this 1/4 shot than you are backing the 33/1 shot in the above example. That hits it home doesn't it. Value doesn't mean the horse is a big price, value can be found at any price and as shown above it is actually at the shorter prices that the real value can be found.

So why is value out there? Partly it is because bookmakers don't spend enough time properly looking through races to find the horse's true chance of winning. Some bookies are lazier than others, but generally the runners are priced up on form. Overnight markets are something I prefer didn't exist, it can literally take a few pounds here and there to completely crush a price and ruin it for everybody. This is because there is no liquidity in the markets and if it were up to me, all prices would be released by all bookmakers at 8am on the morning of the race. However, as this isn't the case, I will try and back horses at the best available prices I can get, as would anyone.

I had a good look through the cards yesterday afternoon and picked out a few potential interesting runners. I roughly priced up the markets for all the races I was interested in, then had a look on oddschecker at the early prices. Below was my thinking process for my three on the blog:

Jupiter Rex - Had this one at about 2/1, race not especially strong, stable in form, somehow dropped 2lbs by the handicapper for reappearance run which he would have come on a lot for, conditions to suit. I said to myself anything over 2/1 I will have a bet. I thought the horse had around a 33.3% chance of winning. Looked at the odds, 10/3 out there (23.1%) which is over 10% difference, safe to say I snapped that up and made Jupiter Rex my NAP - but at that price. He isn't my NAP at 6/4 available now, because 6/4 suggests a 40% chance of winning which I think is too short and doesn't represent VALUE. This is why getting on early is so important.

Xaarcet - Had this one at about 9/2 (18.2%) Race is terrible, yard starting to fire, won at the course, very well handicapped, should go well fresh and conditions to suit. 13/2 was available for this one (13.3%) so I backed it with that 4.9% cushion in mind. Is now around 5/2 which represents no value to me whatsoever. I wouldn't back my NB at 5/2 is what I am saying. (28.6%) I think the price is too short and in my opinion overestimates the horses chances. It was my NB at the price of 13/2.

Brantingham Breeze - I would have backed this one at 4/1. The opening price gave me a little bit of juice at 5/1, but only a small value percentage of 3.3%. If the horse was 10/1, it would have been my NAP as the difference would have been 10.9%, a greater difference than my NAP.

Value % or rating:

Jupiter Rex 10.2 = NAP
Xaarcet 4.9 = NB
Brantingham Breeze 3.3 = IWAC

Double figure differences don't happen that often, so Jupiter Rex was a strong selection for me, worthy of a decent punt. A staking system built on these percentages alone is something I may consider and trial, it's all about trying new things and trying to find an edge and more importantly having fun.

As I have said it is different for everyone, so you have to trust yourself and be honest with yourself, This is just my take, others will completely disagree and have their own opinions, which is why horseracing is such a fantastic sport.

Hope you enjoyed my ramblings and more importantly hope we nail a winner or two today.

THT

Racing Debates - Is it possible to fix a race?

Betting scandals and market/race fixing accusations are rarely out of the headlines in racing, it is something the average punter is well aware of. First lets ask the question - what is fixing a race? Is it all jockeys and/or trainers/owners colluding to arrange the outcome of a race for financial gain? Or is it simply entering a horse that has no realistic chance whether that be by connections' choice or the horses' natural ability. This further widens the opening of racing's dark and unexposed underbelly. Is running a horse that is not at full racing fitness a form of race fixing? Lets explore these.

The Non Trier - I am not being a wild and crazed conspiracy theorist here, but the first rule that anyone new to racing and betting on racing should know is this: Not all horses in the race are there to win. If they were, we would all be millionaires because a very simple study of a formbook would tell you all the answers. Horses with race winning ability are run everyday where connections have absolutely no intention of winning. This can be for various reasons including wanting a reduced handicap mark, the race being used as a prep run for another race in near future or day I say it for certain people in the know to make a few quid. Owners and even some trainers and jockeys have been convicted for laying their own horses in the past and wouldn't surprise me if it happened again. Non triers happen every single day, that's not a conspiracy theory, that's a fact. Now lets get back to the original question, is this race fixing? Knowing that the horse you have entered in a race is not there to win. Most will say no, but a few will argue it is and I can see why. However, this will never stop, despite the fact it could be seen as unfair to punters etc, this is part of racing. Without non triers there would be no every day run-of-the-mill racing and I am comfortable with this, otherwise I wouldn't risk my money.

How easy is it to do? Very. Much easier than you would think. Flat jockeys probably have a tougher job as the races are shorter and there are no obstacles to overcome. How many times have you seen a naturally front running horse anchored out the back for a few races then suddenly reverts to front running next time and nothing gets past? This is just one example. In jumps races you can miss the start by a few lengths, take a pull for a few seconds and in a 10-15 runner field you are 30L off the pace from the get go and you realistically have no chance even if you wanted to win, it's worryingly easy though some jockeys are better at it than others! Also those with riding experience will themselves know there are various ways to unsettle a horse, or make out you are trying to push a horse on when actually you are doing the complete opposite. However, the fact is that jockeys have to do this. Their reward? Winners. They pull the horse three times successfully then they get the ride when it's go time, very simple really. That's the way the industry works. Form books are useful, but a book telling you when connections are trying would be even handier!

Horse fitness - Similar to the non trier in the sense that you are sending a horse to a race with no realistic chance of winning as it is not race fit or 'needs the run.' In my mind a horse coming back from a long absence will benefit from a race, of course it will. However, when trainer's say 'will need the run' are they just saying 'I haven't got him fit enough for this race?' I have thought about this for years and a few times the question of whether this 'needs the run' business is actually total nonsense has crossed my mind. That said I don't think it can be called a form of race fixing, after all 'prep runs' are commonplace and there are even designated prep races such as the Prix Niel for the Arc. However, sending a horse to the races mid season that hasn't been up the gallops in three weeks is totally wrong. Trainers have a responsibility to the sport to get their horses to a reasonable standard of fitness for a race, and any trainer that doesn't is being extremely deceitful and unfair in my opinion, especially if the reasoning for the lack of work is to ensure their horse doesn't win. Another form of the non trier, but the jockey can throw everything at the poor animal and it simply can't run to his mark due to the fact that it isn't race fit and shouldn't be running.

The race itself - This one is more alarming. Connections or jockeys conspiring to pre-arrange the result of a race and then riding accordingly. I like to think that this never happens but you look at some races and think that either some of the jockeys are stupid or just downright rubbish or alternatively; it is not possible for seasoned and experienced professionals to have acted in such a way by accident. 'Misjudging the pace' is a common one. We have all seen it before, we saw it earlier today at Chepstow. One horse blazes off in front by 20 odd lengths and the jockeys behind let him go. They presumably expect the leader to come back to them, but like today, sometimes they don't. The panic buttons were pressed behind but the winner had already flown. This is usually seen more in apprentice/amateur races due to lack of race-riding experience but with the likes of Richard Johnson and Barry Geraghty in behind you have to wonder how such professionals can make such a devastating mistake. The likelihood is that despite the price, the Skelton horse was better handicapped than the other jockeys thought, but Dan Skelton is banging in the winners and this should have been something that the other jockeys were thinking. That said it was an enterprising ride from Harry and I am not for one moment suggesting this race was in anyway fixed or pre-determined but such awful misjudgements do make people question integrity of the sport. I think the other jockeys should have to answer for such mistakes though the BHA think differently as no enquiries were made whatsoever. Make of that what you will.

A telephone call between Paul Mulrennan and Martin Dwyer discussing their rides in an upcoming race from 2010 emerged in the summer. Of course jockeys talk but if I remember rightly Dwyer was trying to convince Mulrennan that Mulrennan had no chance on his mount and he was going to back the mount of David Allan and was trying to convince Mulrennan to do the same. Jockeys aren't allowed to bet, so this is one cause for concern but if Mulrennan has backed another horse in the race, he isn't exactly going to be throwing the kitchen sink at his mount is he? David Allan's mount subsequently won the race. Remember that this is just the stuff that has come to light, no doubt there are many things the racing public may never know about. Is this race fixing? Even if Mulrennan's mount had no chance, is this still race fixing? Certainly an interesting argument. 

The fact is that people talk. In the build up to a race, jockeys will talk to other jockeys and trainers and half the time any one jockey in a race has ridden for at least one other yard in the same race so they can get a pretty good idea of the likely outcome before a race and with the added knowledge of which horses are likely to be on a 'going day' you can see that it wouldn't be hard to have a pretty good outcome of the potential top three in a race. If the odd jockey is having a bet, which no doubt a few do, or at least their mates are then will they ride accordingly? Is this race fixing?


Sadly corruption does exist and as racing fans we know that. Most will only choose to notice it when their money is involved however, which to be honest makes me quite sad.  Racing is our sport, we love it to death. The bad comes with the good like everything and as genuine racing fans, we put up with non triers and dodgy gambles because we could not live without racing, and more notably remember, racing could not live without us, the typical racing fan and punter who fund the industry.


It's a very interesting debate, it all depends what you consider to be race fixing. It has been exposed in many sports, boxing, football, snooker to name a few, all for one reason, money. More and more people in the game forgetting the reason they fell in love with it in the first place - the adrenaline rush of a race, the magnificent animal itself, the thoroughbred, the great people in the industry and the amazing moments and great days out racing can bring to an individual. They forget all of this for a quick buck and this is ironically the greatest 'fix' of them all. 

Thanks for taking the time to read my ramblings. Please offer your own views and any future suggestions for 'racing debates' that you want to see discussed on blog.

@THTRacing

NH horses to follow 2014/2015

The jumps season isn't far away at all and this year I have compiled a list of potentially promising horses to follow throughout the season, some with a little help from some knowledgable folk on Twitter. Some may be duds, some may win a few little races, a couple may make the festival and who knows, maybe one of the names below has the potential to be NH's next superstar. I think we missed one last season, especially with the absence of Sprinter Sacre. Of course we had the festival winners, most notably the unbeaten Faugheen and Vautor - will be exciting to watch their development this year. While the superb festival was marred by the tragic loss of equine life, most notably the very promising Our Conor, it is still the greatest racing spectacle on Earth and I am already counting down the days till we hear that roar in March. Lets hope a few of these make it to Prestbury Park. Have rated them one star to five stars which is just my opinion of their potential, also made a shortlist of must follows at the end.

MA DU FOU ***** - Looked to be struggling at short odds on debut when outpaced 5f out but steadily asserted and ended up storming clear when the penny dropped. Might not have beat much but will come on a ton for that and rates a very interesting prospect to go novice hurdling with over further. Rumoured to be the best Warren has had up his gallops. 32

BLAKLION *** - Looks a nice prospect for the Twiston-Davies yard bolting up on debut beating a well regarded sort by 15L. Showed some guts next time to win, beating a nice horse of McCain's then was put away until recent reappearance when winning in workmanlike but cosy enough fashion at Perth. Should see him at the Festival. 12132

NO DEAL ***** - Last seen in Jan 2013 winning a maiden hurdle at Ayr. A 7yo who has only had three starts due to injury but reportedly making up for lost time at home and being touted
as a potential Grand National horse at some point in the future. Should be ready to strike on overdue reapparance and go on to much better things. 41

VERAWAL *** - Very impressive on debut for top yard, big disappointment next time but can be forgiven; looks a lovely prospect and is one to keep very much on side this campaign and maybe in seasons to come. 3336F0

TELL US MORE ***** - Tanked his way through his sole run slamming his opposition. This son of Scorpion sold for nearly £300k at auction last year and a huge campaign is expected from him this year. 126

TAJ BADALANDABAD *** - Not 100% sure what he has beat so far but nothing has really got close in two starts to date, could be anything for the Pipe team this year. 41144

A VOS GARDES *** -  Looks classy and is well regarded at home. Still immature and a big baby but world at his feet. Displayed a good attitude on his two starts to date and can go on to bigger and better things in time. 3122

FLETCHERS FLYER **** - This Harry Fry trained 6yo has only had two starts but looks a stayer judged on his very good runs so far and one to watch as he is gradually stepped up in trip. 3112

SUNTIEP **** - The less said about the ride he recieved at the festival the better but was clearly the best horse in the race and a campaign targetting the Grand National beckons.

KOOLALA *** - I really like this mare and she has always been well thought of at home. Hope to see her at the Festival in March as there is a lot more to come at 3m+ this season. 57

ONE TRACK MIND *** - Another exciting once raced youngster for up and coming trainer Warren Greatrex, always looked the winner and had what could be a few nice types in behind, promising. 1U41

GRANDE ANTARCTIQUE ** - A wildcard from a small yard but one that should be capable of winning races when sent novice hurdling this season, promising running on 2nds in two good soft ground bumpers and exciting for small trainer. U263

RUTHERGLEN *** - Won his first three juvenile hurdles before running a screamer in the Triumph, getting going too late on ground that was on the quick side for him, exciting season ahead.

GAITWAY *** - Green on debut vs experienced rival but showed great battling attitude to win and the pair 35L clear of the third, should go onto better things. 2

GREEN FLAG *** - Convinced this 7yo has a big prize in him this year, 3m2f-4m will be exactly what he wants, a genuine horse still with potential, won or placed in 13/16 of his races and he can win a big one in 2014/2015. Will see him at the festival too come March. 40P

UN ACE ** - Ran a belter at 100/1 in the Supreme in the festival just gone, staying on all too late from miles back. Will be sent chasing this season and will surely win a few races this season. F1120

COYABA **** - An exciting youngster,He was still a big baby last year but won two bumpers before coming up just short in the highest company. Should pick up some nice hurdles races this year for trainer going places. 262

VAGO COLLONGES **** - Ran in a listed and graded bumper in 2013 where he finished 2nd both times. Had last season off due to a few niggles here and there, but reportedly tearing up the Ditcheat gallops and is a serious prospect for novice hurdling this campaign. 22132

LE MERCUREY *** - Unraced in the UK, this frech import is the latest buzz horse at Paul Nicholls yard, probably going to be over-hyped, but one to keep a close eye on all the same this year. 737


Mullins unraced horses to watch out for:

TARARE

DOUVAN - 111

STONE HARD - 110

LONG DOG - 2

ARGENTINO - 0619

Must follows:

MA DU FOU - 32
NO DEAL - 41
TELL US MORE - 126
VAGO COLLONGES - 22132
COYABA - 272

Must be a few winners in there! Will be keeping track of results and updating this blog regularly. If you think we have missed one or two then dont hesitate to offer your suggestions @THTRacing

*** Results will be recorded and upated on here from 1st October 2014.***

Tracker Form:

UF13341222323112111436123150U02214126434161112F736110264222132P02371119

Winners:

Blaklion 9/1 (Persian War - Grade 2)

Un Ace 3/1 (Class 3 Novice Chase)

One Track Mind Evs (Class 4 Nov Hdle)

Taj Badalandabad Evs (C4 Nov Hdle)

Fletchers Flyer 11/10 (C2 Nov Hdle)

Tell Us More 1/5 (Maiden Hurdle)

Douvan 8/15 (Novice Hurdle)

Un Ace 8/15 (Class 4 Novice Chase)

Taj Badalandabad 11/10 (C4 Nov Hdle)

Blaklion 9/4 (A' Bartlett Trial - Grade 2)

Stone Hard 4/7 (Bumper)

Fletchers Flyer 11/10 (Class 4 Nov Hdle)

Vago Collonges 2/1 (Class 4 Nov Hdle)

As Vos Gardes 5/1 (Maiden Hurdle)

Douvan 1/3 (Novice Hurdle - Grade 2)

Argentino 7/2 (Maiden Hurdle)
No Deal 2/1 (Class 4 Hcap Chase)

One Track Mind 3/10 (Class 4 Nov Hurdle)
Stone Hard 4/11 (Bumper)
Douvan 2/1 (Supreme Novices - Grade 1)

LSP Running Total (win): - 2.71pts

Thursday 7th August

Not a great deal of time on side to write a detailed blog tonight so will just post selections with main reasons for backing.

 IWAC 14.10 - King Of Paradise - 3lb below last winning mark, back in trip and dropped in grade, 14/1 big.

NAP 18.50 - Ventriloquist - Solid form lto, Kirby/Appleby 67% SR in turf maidens with the last four winning.

NB 19.30 - Streetcar To Stars - Getting massive weight allowance from older horses, best run at trip, unexposed, highly regarded, 5/2 on the skinny side but still a bit of value there.

Ed De Giles is a trainer in form and he has four tomorrow with excellent chances, backed them as singles and also in a yankee at small stakes for interest.

14.20 Living It Large 7/1
15.50 Men Don't Cry 8/1
18.15 Twenty One Choice 5/1
19.55 Croquembouche 5/1

Good luck if you follow.

Also there are some dodgy things going on tomorrow, Barney Curley may be connected to two horses returning from 500+ day breaks and they have already been heavily gambled. Keep up to date with what we think on Twitter throughout the day.

THT

Wednesday 6th August

Decent enough day yesterday with an impressive performance by our 6/1 winner and some place money at 10/1 and 33/1 to boot. NAP ran okay but really thought it should have won. Swordbearer just ran into one on the day but showed massively improved form, as did Gosden's back in third and they both have made their way into the tracker. Dire Straits did one of the two things I expected; win or come last. Unfotunately for us it was the latter despite it being backed into 3/1 fav from 7/1. I thought our NB had nicked the race as he led for 6.9 furlongs of the 7 but got nailed on the line. However, he held on for third beating the jolly and 33/1 place returns are always welcome. I did actually back the winner at 50.0 on the machine thanks to someone mentioning the form figures on polytrack seconds before the off, so I was a happy chappy anyway! On to today.

Candlelight ran a screamer on her all-weather debut last time only going down by a length to her half sister, the earlier highly tried 3/10 shot Magic Florence after missing the start by a few strides. The pair were over ten lengths clear of the remainder at the finish and in the context of this race that is strong form. Al Fareej is obviously well regarded and rates the main danger but looking at forecast SP's you have to side with this Charlie Hills filly. It's no surprise she stepped up massively on her turf debut when trying the polytrack last time as she is out of Zabedee, the first season all weather wonder stallion! ;-) His stats say 5/13 on the surface but in some races he has had multiple runners so it's actually 5/10 races won where he has had runners, and two of those not included came second. Those five wins have come in the last six races and he is my all-weather sire to follow this autumn and winter for 2yos. Will see what the price opens up at but all things considered, this filly looks to have an outstanding chance for a trainer whose last 18 runners in polytrack maidens have finished in the top four. NB.

Skytrain is another one I really fancy to be very tough to beat. The fact is that he won't be beaten if running up to the form of his last race at Goodwood, especially in this lower grade. He conceded weight to five horses rated up to 7lbs higher than him and beat them all bar the winner Extremity who was rated 84 and recieving 2lbs off Skytrain (78) so effectively he had 8lbs to find with that runner. The second was Buckstay who looks a nice horse, rated 86 and will go on to better things. The gallop was a frenetic one set by the horse that eventually finished tailed off and considering how close he was to the pace, it was a monumental effort to gamely hang on for third from better rated horses in behind. He took up the running a long way out and stayed on really willingly. What I am saying is he ran a race that suggests he is soon to return to winning ways. So how much was he raised for this huge run? 2lbs, 3lbs, 4lbs, maybe even 5lbs? Nope, he was dropped a pound in the handicap and has a mark of 77. With the rider's claim he is effectively off 74. Can you see why I really fancy it now? Not saying this isn't competitive but if the horse runs a simlar race to at Goodwood, nothing gets close. Worth mentioning he should handle the undulations of this unique course as he handled Goodwood just fine. Shame Joe Fanning goes to Pontefract to ride just the one in the maiden (wink wink) as if he was here I would be having one of my biggest bets of the season. However, dropped in grade with perfect conditons and off effectively 4lbs lower, there will be no excuses today as he has won five races off higher marks in the past. Price you ask? 7/4? 9/4? Wrong, 5/1 :O NAP.

TRACKER - Barye is of interest in the 7.40 returning to the All-Weather. He won his maiden in good style at Lingfield over 1f shorter and his sire has a 23% SR at Kempton. He ran a very solid race last time and the return to Polyrack for a yard in superb form makes 7/1 look value each way. Bishop Of Ruscombe is the danger especially as Probert has a 44% SR when riding for owner David Brownlow.

TRACKER - Third Dimension back on slower ground and upped in trip makes strong appeal over in Ireland. He won his maiden on easy ground before being sent to Royal Ascot for the Brittania when far from disgraced off 95. The ground was probably the excuse last time when backed into favouritism and on a slower surface he can recapture form with the step up to 10 furlongs likely to suit.

Two I will be keeping a close eye on in the markets are Poyle Vinnie and Toto Skyllachy. The former was hammered in the betting on stable debut when 3rd, ususally smart money and there may have been one or two faesible excuses and he is still lightly raced. Has the stable jockey on board this time too and at 4/1 might be worth a small punt. Toto Skyllachy makes debut for new yard but is undoubtedly well treated on past exploits. He was heavily punted last time and if in the mood he can do some damage eased in grade off 79. 12/1 opening show looks a fair price indeed. Keep an eye on Twitter as I will update when I can whether I have backed or not, as of this moment I am not offering them as selections, will leave them to you.

Selections:

NAP: 15.50 Skytrain 5/1
NB: 14.00 Candlelight 9/2

Tracker:

IWAC: 19.00 Third Dimension 6/1 ew
19.40 Barye 7/1 ew

Good Luck if you follow and remember to keep an eye on our tweets through the day for any selections, race information or potential lays. You can set up a notification everytime we tweet so you don't miss anything by going on our profile homepage, pressing the settings button which looks like a cog-wheel and pressing 'turn on notiffications.' Then again, why you would want me spamming your phone every five minutes I don't know! Good luck if you go with us today, more profit yesterday and long may it continue.

THT

Tuesday 5th August

Very good start yesterday with our IWAC going in at 10/1. We made a big deal of the sire stats on blog and they paid off, Zebedee offspring now 3/3 over 6f on polytrack and a foal by the same sire also took a race later on the card with a half sibling in behind in 2nd. He is a sire to follow this all wether season over autumn and winter. Anyway we also landed a good lay posted on Twitter but after that the NAP could only manage 3rd and Baars Causeway still can't win so a bit of a disappointing end but more profit and we increased our lead on the tipping blog for August. Rinsed the Kempton card again tomorrow and our thoughts are below.

18.00 - Ajig has won at the course and went close last time but has been beaten a cumulative total of over 30 lengths on her two C/D runs. One or two potential improvers in here but I'm going with the more solid option in the shape of Plucky Dip. The only course and distance winner in the field, the John Ryan trained gelding arguably ran a career best last time in a much higher grade when finishing 2L behind a Haggas horse that has since won on the bridle off a mark of 83. His official mark is 62, though this is a Classified Stakes and he receives 7lbs from the 4yos as do the other 3yos in race. However he may prove a bit better than this grade in time and will hopefully be a nice price when the markets are formed. The jockey booking of in form William Buick also looks significant who had a double here from two rides yesterday. A very solid selection to start the card off I think and today's NAP.

18.30 - Godolphin run two here and I am going to have a chancey play on the white cap Momayyaz. She ran on well when the penny dropped on debut though the stablemate Rapprochement had already flown to win by a devastating 11L. However that horse has since been pitched into Group 3 company at Goodwood when well beaten after being very badly hampered and eased down and interesting to see where he goes next as is clearly highly regarded. Anyway Momayyaz should handle the surface looking at her pedigree and should have come on a lot for the debut run. The capable young rider can claim a very handy 7lbs here which may make the difference and with the trainers 'second strings' beating the first string 37% of the time in the past year, the white cap might be coming home in front of the blue once more for a trainer who has a superb SR of 30% at Kempton. Another interesting stat is his runners who finished second on debut on turf then switched to AW for second run have a 49% SR with 24 of the last 25 runners coming 1st or 2nd, so I think we can at least be hopeful of a run for our money. Just a chancey one though as I have said, forecast price is 6/1 and will at least be a good each way bet to nothing though a few unexposed ones in here.

19.00 - James Fanshawe is a man in form and had a winner and a nose second here yesterday. His handicap debutants perform exceptionally well and in this weak looking race, Swordbearer catches the eye. He ran his best maiden run over C/D and has to be of interest at 15/2 if showing improvement for handicap debut off what could be a very lenient mark of 70. The main danger is Gosden's.

20.30 - Dire Straits makes appeal for a yard in form in the shape of Chris Wall. The young lad in the saddle has also had a great season and the pair have a 33% SR in AW handicaps. He takes off 3lbs meaning this horse has been let loose off 60 and is stepped up significantly in trip from a mile to a mile and a half and being by Teofilo, this is sure to bring about improvement. While having shown little so far this colt is related to AW winners and the surface should suit on his polytrack debut and despite being short enough at 7/1 based on form alone, that price could look silly if today is the day.

21.00 Good race to end and am sure many will be on Sleep Walk who could be well ahead of the handicapper but I fancy taking a chance on a horse that has somehow been priced up at 33/1. Meritocracy is one of two C/D winners in the field but his recent turf form has tailed off slightly. However he has been running in better races of late and returning to the AW will be the key to improved form today I think. He is now off 82, which is 3lb below his last winning mark (over C/D) and his course form reads 311, that 3rd when only going down by a length on debut. The biggest danger is Dinneratmidnight for me, I think there are doubts about the surface for the jolly and needs to improve against horses rated up to 20lb higher though that said, she won very cheekily last time. The unexposed ones worry me a tad but if this horse is sparked by the return to all-weather then this is one of the best 33/1 shots you will find all week.

All today's are chancey to be honest except the NAP which I think is quite solid. A maiden punt and two horses that need to improve for handicap debut could well be hit or miss before finishing with the each way bet of the week, in my humble opinion at least.

18.00 Plucky Dip 3/1 NAP - 3rd
18.30 Momayyaz 6/1 ew - WINNER
19.00 Sword Bearer 10/1 ew - 2nd
20.30 Dire Straits 7/1 ew IWAC
21.00 Meritocracy 33/1 ew NB - 3rd

One from the tracker too in the shape of Mecca's Mirage in the 18.45 but not backing as I am sure I have heard somewhere that she needs a wind op so best left alone until hearing differently though one to maybe monitor in the market anyway just in case.

Good Luck if you follow, gone with smaller stakes today as generally quite speculative selections, so go easy.

THT

Monday 4th August

Thankfully I went half stakes yesterday as it turned out to be a typical Sunday, don't think I will punt Sunday's anymore unless I am really sweet on something. We are top of the pile on Niall's blog and intend to stay there this month. 8/8 months ended in profit on there and with the bright start to this month we have made it a good chance of 9/9. Tomorrow's selections and the reasoning below. I love punting at Kempton, always seem to do well there and while the card isn't awe inspiring tomorrow I fancy one or two.

The first of those is Spring Loaded in the opening maiden. I don't like guessy punts like this usually and I rarely bet in maidens but this runner catches the eye. Ran below market expectations on debut when well punted finishing a close up last of four. The winner of the race and the 2nd have since ran well again, the 2nd subsequently winning and then running well in a higher grade handicap. This is a maiden but it looks weak and very winnable, especially as the step up to 6f is sure to suit as he wasn't given a hard time by Ryan Moore on debut yet finished well when the penny dropped. However the real reason I am especially sweet on this runner is stats based. Firstly jockey/trainer combination is 29% on the all weather which is eye catching but the sire stats are what got me. 33% SR on the all weather for £1 LSP of £47. He is a first season sire making a big impact on the polytrack and his foals are 2/2 at 6f on the all weather. At a forecasted price of 10/1, with the debut under his belt, step up in trip and tackling a new surface, I will be having a right old bash each way if he opens anything like that.

A nice little handicap is the 15.45. Messila Star is a worthy favourite based on his last run alone behind subsequent listed runner up Tenor, that's good form indeed in the context of this 0-75 race. Anya for Henry Candy will surely be winning soon off 72 but hopefully it isn't today as I'm taking a chance on Lady Cecil's Equitable. This son of Dansili was backed as if defeat was out of the question on debut returning an even money favourite when leading close home after taking a wide course throughout. The way he finished his race was very encouraging. Three horses behind subsequently have won and now rated between 75-80 so off 75 tomorrow you would be hopeful he could do some damage. That said, he actually has a generous 7lbs weight for age allowance meaning his mark is effectively 68 which judged on that debut form, he is very capable of winning off. He has however since ran on turf three times and has ran poorly. I won't make excuses but they were on different ground over a few different trips on turf, but it's the return to the polytrack that has got me interested today. Going right handed shouldn't be a problem as his sire's offspring perform marginally better right handed and the incredible strike rates of the jockey/trainer on the polytrack is what drew me in. Lady Cecil and James Doyle polytrack form reads 13312211242512 for a 36% win SR and 86% place SR. They mean business when they team up on the artifical surface and with this horse returning to the polytrack off a mark he can exploit, 11/1 looks big and I'll be having a little go each way though the favourite is the one to beat.

I think the handicapper has made a terrible mistake only increasing Lady Horatia's handicap rating by a 1lb for her last race. I have had a good look through the form and I am convinced that 85 underestimates this lovely big grey filly. Let's look at the last race. A 0-95 at Newmarket. Despite pulling Dwyer's arms out throughout the first half of a slowly run race, she stayed on well from the midfield to finish a solid third behind Athenian who went up to 96 for that win. She also beat a Godolhin horse rated 94 who has since ran a solid race in the Stewards Cup. The race before she got a good gallop which she probably enjoys and stormed home very well inside the final furlong after being switched and not having the clearest of runs almost catching the winner who went up to 92 for that win and also ran at Goodwood earlier this week. Worth noting that run was after missing the break by five lengths. She is dropped in grade today, is unexposed on the surface (but has run a solid race on it before) and unexposed at 6f and I think she is a cut above this field though we haven't seen the best of one or two of these to be fair. That said she has the best form on offer and if settling a bit better with a decent gallop that hopefully will be set by Bowstar, she has a favourite's chance. I think 9/4 is about fair and maybe even that is generous? 4/1 available in a few places and that is value to me, today's NAP and it's a strong one.

Find it quite miraculous that Baars Causeway hasn't yet managed to win a race. She is again dropped in class and certainly has the right man in the saddle and she really should be shedding her maiden tag in this desperate affair. The two dangers are the handicap debutants but stats for those aren't inspiring and at this level it is always a bit guessy but surely the filly won't find a better opportunity. Her European pedigree is certainly interesting if not inspiring but she ran some huge races as a 2yo. She was 3L behind dual Group 3 winning J Wonder in a maiden at Newbury, finished 2L behind Group 3 winning Amazing Maria as well has having the beating of many horses now rated in the 80's and 90's. She went down by a short head and half a length in two races in her first year but hasn't fired at all in her second season. That short head defeat was here over the 7f in this class and despite running nothing more than an okay race when last here, she is now on a very exploitable mark of 63 with conditions optimum and very beatable opposition. Not having her out the places and I fancy her to win this. 11/1.

Selections:

14.15 Spring Loaded 10/1 ew - WINNER
15.45 Equitable 11/1 ew - NR
17.15 Lady Horatia 4/1 NAP
17.50 Baars Causeway 11/1 NB

Good Luck if you like the look of any of these and take the plunge with us.

THT

Sunday 3rd August

Well yesterday was eventful. We started with a much improved run from the IWAC Slip Sliding Away to nab a place for good returns at 28/1. The winner for Nicholls was well backed as has been last twice and finally repayed the faith to many. Then on to 16/1 winner Double Bluff who did it bloody well, nice horse. Hard luck for King's Fete who looks a good animal in behind, just had too much to do but wasn't his day either way. That was the NB landed. Then it was NAP time, and Epsom Hill won by 10L, devastating the field in a monsoon at Thirsk, not many NAP's win that easy but nice when they do, even sweeter at 8/1. So that was the each way treble landed after an hour. We got further winners through the day including the impressive Nassau champion and ended Glorious Goodwood with a bang. Our winners over the festival were at 11/2, 11/1, 16/1, 18/1 and 22/1 with more place money than I care to mention. Overall, it was a great week and topped off with one of my most profitable days punting personally. On the day we had 11/2, 8/1, 11/1 and 16/1 winners with place money at 6/1 and 28/1 to boot.

On to Sunday. No Goodwood sadly but picked out three for the blog. Any new followers and readers please don;t expect miracles. This is a Sunday after all and bookies will be waiting, certainly a day to be cautious with your stakes.

Dinkum Diamond 15.05 arguably ran a career best last time behind Extortionist who has since gone on to win at Goodwood earlier this week. He flew home over 5f and the step back up in trip may be ideal. He is the best horse in the race and 6/1 looks very fair for an each way bet to nothing for a yard that never seem out of form. Sir Maximilian may give him most to think about.

Cool Sky 16.45 was progressive when last seen on the flat when winning on the bridle off 81 at Sandown last year. He went jumping for McCain and won a race so will be fit from that and comes here with a real chance. The ground should be perfect for him and the race looks winnable and if in the same form as when last seen on the flat he will be hard to beat. 6/1 very fair as an each way bet.

Dangerous Age wasn't fully suited by the extended 5 and half furlongs at Bath on comeback run for new trainer last time but at least that would have blown away the cobwebs after a few months off. The horse is back down to last winning mark though that was on the polytrack but this heavily raced sort can run a big race and is still unexposed on turf. The jockey booking is very notable too, I can't ever recall Kirby riding for yard who showed their horses are in rude health with a double at Lingfield last night. As competitive 5f handicaps go, this isn't especially strong and is there for the taking. I think the filly may have a few lbs in hand and I fancy her to be right there at the business end. 9/1 16.25.

Finally I am going to give a chance to Graphene in the 17.25. He won three starts back and just hasn't looked the same horse in last two outings but the reason may have been the ground. His win was on good to soft and if that's what it turns up as today then 12/1 looks appealling. With apprentice find of the season Cam Hardie taking off 5lbs he can run off his last winning mark and may put up a bold showing if beneffiting from a bit of juice underfoot.

Selections:

15.05 Dinkum Diamond 6/1 ew NB
16.25 Dangerous Age 9/1 ew NAP
16.45 Cool Sky 6/1 ew IWAC
17.25 Graphene 12/1 ew

As I say go easy. I have gone half usual stakes as it is very trappy stuff and I am sure there will be better betting opportunities in higher class racing throughout the week. All bookies money after yesterday anyway.

THT

Saturday 2nd August

Not a great deal of time to write a full blog today but will still post selections with quick few reasons for choices. Overall been a very profitable Goodwood so far with 14/1 and 22/1 winners with plenty of place money to boot. Not the best yesterday but expect better today.

Race 1 - Slip Sliding Away 25/1 - 4-7 over C/D, claimer takes off 3lbs putting him back to a mark of 82 which he was rated when losing by a short head over inadequate 5f earlier in season. Up in trip, 3lbs off his back and can run as he was expected earlier in week when backed from 14/1 into 13/2 joint favourite for a trainer that does exceptionally well here. Confessional the danger.

Race 2 - Double Bluff 16/1 - Career best when stepped up to 12f last time in a stronger race lumping 10st. Only beaten by a very progressive horse I really like, probably Sir Mark's best, the gigantic Pallasator. Was clear of the third and stayed on really well after attempting to make all. Mr Fanning on board, dropped in grade and has won at the track, some unexposed ones in here and I have Oasis Fantasy down as the main danger but Double Bluff is the no brainer each way play here for me.

Race 3 - The worst Nassau I can remember for a while. Surprised Sultanina isn't favourite so on that basis she is value to me at 9/2 and wouldn't rule out Amazing Maria back in trip as she is the only course winner in the race. If there were 8 runners I would pile into Sultanina as an each way bet to nothing but as there isn't I doubt I will play though she is my likely winner.

Race 4 - Suprised Muthmir opened at 7/1, and to be honest I am still surprised there is 11/2 out there. Very worthy favourite, looked very good at York didn't he? A rating of 92 surely underestimates him and despite the fact he will need a lot of luck, there are no doubts in my mind that this horse is the one to beat. That said, this is the Stewards Cup with 28 runners, a lot of top class sprinters in the field and a bit of a lottery in all honesty. Discussiontofollow is a horse I have followed all season and I'm not deserting him now so he will have some money each way and I know it's terribly boring but I also like another at the top of the market in Alben Star. Asphan Sam and Seeking Magic also have sound claims at slightly bigger prices so at very small stakes I have backed the first three mentioned each way and some tiny combo forecasts and tricasts with the others too; it's a complete lottery make no mistake about it. If Muthmir gets a clear run however, then he'll be hard to peg back imo.

Race 5 - Secret Brief was well backed on debut when running an encouraging third over 6f at Ripon. The Shamardal colt cost £150,000 and connections could start recouping that here. The horse lost action on debut after about a furlong when in the lead, watched it about five times and still can't work out quite what happened. I think the horse jumped at a shadow and then stumbled but I don't really know, maybe Charlie Johnston can enlighten us on the Morning Line? Anyway the horse lost it's postition before staying on again at the end and from stall two, Joe can grab an early position and hopefully stay there this time providing the horse doesn;t fancy another schooling session at the furlong marker. Depends on price though, forecast is 14/1, can't imagine it will be above 8/1, I will take 6/1, no lower as a speculative ew punt in this maiden.

Race 6 - No Bet.

Race 7 - Outer Space still a maiden but some big runs in top races and 83 looks very workable, showed some promise last time too. Groundworker only C/D winner in field and better expected last time when ran a bit flat, wide open and not one I fancy enough to part with my cash just yet, but these two are ones to have a close look at in the prelims.

Tracker:

15.05 Thirsk - Epsom Hill 8/1 NAP - WINNER (13L clear of the third and was well backed)
17.40 Doncaster - Monarch Maid 6/1 (Heavily gambled last time when improved form but ran into one)
20.30 Lingfield - Orders From Rome 11/2 - Placed (Flew home off declining mark lto, new trip, signif. jock booking)
20.30 Lingfield - Bridge That Gap 6/1 (Stormed home off last winning mark lto, dropped in grade, C/D win)

Backed all of the above each way with a reverse forecast in the 20.30 to boot.

Fahey singles and ew trixie:

2.55 Lacing 16/1 ew
3.05 Bayan Kasirga 18/1 ew
6.15 Triggers Broom 8/1 ew

Goodwood selections and coverbets:

14.05 Slip Sliding Away 28/1 ew IWAC - Placed // Confessional 20/1 ew
14.40 Double Bluff 16/1 ew NB - WINNER // Oasis Fantasy 9/1 ew
15.15 Sultanina 11/2 - WINNER
16.25 Secret Brief 10/1 ew

Tracker not been firing of late but really fancy the ones from it tomorrow, am convinced I have the winner of the 20.30, otherwise I may as well give in! GL if you follow us with any.

THT

Friday 1st August

Blog returned with a bang yesterday with a 22/1 winner in the opening race as Fanning timed his run to perfection on Lyn Valley though the hard luck story was the other Johnston runner who finished second ruining my forecast! We had other each way money through the day at 8/1, 8/1 and 7/1 with two others missing out on places both by a nose at 7/1 and 14/1.

Anyway on to Friday where I have a few fancies at a more competitive looking Goodwood as well as one from the tracker at a huge price who is thrown in and can hopefully do some damage.

The course form showed it's importance yesterday in a big way as shown by the results for previous winners at the track. Whilst I won't be solely concentrating on that today it will of course be an important thing to look out for when studying the card.

Race 1: The opener is arguably the most intriguing of the day. Last year's 2nd favourite for the Derby Battle of Marengo trying to find form, the return of Quest For Peace who is 2/2 at the track and back with Luca Cumani after disappointing in Australia and probably the most interesting of them all, the return of Encke who lowered Camelot's colours in his triple crown bid back in 2012. The St Leger winner is back after his drugs ban and will be interesting to see how he goes, now a 5yo. Just one to watch for me, but will be in the headlines whichever horse wins.

Race 2: Another nice little race here. I backed Shifting Power when 100/1 forth in the Guineas and his subsequesnt form makes him a worthy favourite. Rapprochement, a fascinating runner who demolished his rivals on debut for the prolific Appleby/Kirby partnership may make an impact but not sure what to make of him - clearly needs to be pretty special to trouble the best of these at this stage. Then again he won doing handstands and he doesn't make the trip for no reason, obviously well regarded.

My bet in this race will be the outsider of the field, naturally! A few subsequent winners came out of his impressive win at Epsom two runs back and while the form is ordinary on first glance there are many positives to his chances. He had Lyn Valley behind him that day and that horse has since won at Goodwood just yesterday, our 22/1 winner in fact! I expected What About Carlo to win his next race too when I was there at Newmarket the last day. If I remember rightly the market did too, was heavily backed in from as big as 10/1 if I remember rightly, SP 4/1. However, he ran flat. The jockey told the trainer after the race he didn't feel right and never got going and I believe it was officially registered with the stewards. Why? I don't know, maybe the way the race was run, or the horse had a problem that connections missed. He was hardly given a hard time by Jimmy Fortune either way. Some will say it was the 7lb penatly, but I say give him another chance up in class and down in trip with Mr Moore taking over. Another thing to note is that he is the only runner with a win at the course, over C/D in fact. Furthermore he clearly handles tight, nimble, undulating tracks as he is 1/1 at Epsom and 1/1 here and bringing him back here, down in trip and with the best jockey in the world taking over he can out run his big odds. One or two of these will be tough to beat but with eight runners and a price of 28/1, this well regarded colt can get back on track with a big run. Today's IWAC, and quite a strong one I feel, but the favourite is the one to beat and the Godolphin runner is not one to underestimate.

Race 3: The Betfred Mile next, the most competitive race of the day probably. Velox is the favourite at 7/1 and certainly won well enough last time, my favourite jockey takes over too but I fancy one just that little bit more. Heavy Metal was having his 10th start of the season when winning the Longines just six days ago and surely that run would have taken plenty out of him? Won his last two well but needs more though does have course form but never won over a mile. 50/50 for me but decided not to back, may regret that. One at a bigger price that I have backed is Our Channel for the in form Haggas yard. 20/1 represents great value to me for the only three year old in the field. (3yos won last two runnings) His weight for age allowance means he can run off a mark of  94 here effectively which throws him right into the thick of it. (official rating 101) The least exposed member of the field, he is a truly fascinating contender. His last assignment was in the USA when coming a good second in the American Derby after not staying over 1m4f in the Epsom Derby back in June. This horse won the Derby Trial however, winning very gamely over 10 furlongs under a good ride from Ryan Moore beating most notably Hartnell who is now as short as 5/1 for the St Leger. That is strong form indeed considering he is being let loose off 94 today. Expect a very positive ride from De Sousa who notably has a 36% SR for the yard. 20/1 is mad and won't last I am sure of it. The money from this yard is usually smart, so the more that comes the prettier we will sit. My NAP of the day.

Race 4: I like the best horse in the race here plain and simply. Tropics took his time to get back to form but ran a career best at a whopping 66/1 last time when second behind Slade Power in the July Cup. That's the best form on offer. The drop back to five furlongs is an interesting move and one that I think will work out rasther well. He handles the track as shown by his good Stewards Cup run here last year and if running up to the form of his last run nothing else will get past him. It's competitive, of course it is, Moviesta may be the biggest danger, a horse I really like and took this prize last year but ran nothing like that form this season, but possible a return here could re-kindle the fire. At 7/1 you can't go wrong each way with Tropics, however.

Race 5: Not usually my type of race but couldn't resist a punt on George Bowen in this. He is clearly very highly regarded, being dumped in at the deep end in a Group 2 on only his second start. Not just any Group 2 either, the July Stakes which I think was a very strong batch of two year olds this year, just look at the field. Ivawood, from Jungle Cat as well as The Great War from O'Brien's yard. Strong form indeed in the context of this race. He is still in the Gimcrack and you get the impression that connections were disappointed after his last run. He gets into this nursery off 84 by the way. This is what his trainer had to say: 'He starts his handicaps off a rating of 84 and if he is the colt we think he is, that could be very fair.' 9/1 at time of writing though 37% of the money is on him at the moment, get on fast if you like his chances.

Race 6: No strong opinion here but thought Muteela was fair at 3/1. Worth mentioning that the only horse with course form is course and distance winner Wee Jean for Mick Channon and Ryan Moore.

Race 7: No strong opinion though maybe Art Of War has been judged a bit harshly on last run and 18/1 a little big possibly.

Tracker: Just one from the tracker on Friday and one I fancy. Spiritual Star has finally dropped in grade and also back in trip to the ideal 7f. He also returns to Newmarket, the scene of his sole win (C/D) and has now dropped 16lbs in the handicap since joining the Carsons. Tomorrow is the day handbrake is realeased I think, and the drop in grade and firmer surface should see him run a screamer, especially if ridden more positively from the front. This horse was once rated 109 rightly or wrongly and he ran a huge eycatcher on seasonal debut off 92, a race he could have won if the rider tried a bit harder. Off 83 he will think he has been let loose and might rack up a bit of a sequence if allowed. It's a matter of when not if, and hopefully it can be tomorrow, especially at the prices available, 18/1 could end up looking silly.


Selections:

14.30 - What About Carlo 28/1 ew Non-Runner
15.05 - Our Channel 20/1 ew NAP
15.40 - Tropics 7/1 ew Non-Runner
16.15 - George Bowen 9/1 ew IWAC
19.30 - Spiritual Star 18/1 ew NB

Good luck if you take the plunge with us. All big each way prices as usual.

THT

Thursday 31st July

Don't write a blog often these days, mostly due to being so busy but have a bit of spare time this week and really fancy a few at the unique venue that is Goodwood tomorrow. Been some really good racing there as always already this week, despite the fact the bookies are running out of wheelbarrows to fill up already. On to tomorrow.

Trying something a bit different at Goodwood today. Ignoring the prices and their recent form to an extent and purely going on horses with proven course form. At a track like Wolverhampton, course form means nothing, but the unique style of this particular racetrack can make or break a horse, something which I always think is overlooked by the average punter. And it isn't just the horses, some jockeys just can't ride the track, plain and simple. Jim Crowley has a stinking record there for example with just 3.6% of his mounts finishing first, and just one winner there in the past eighteen months.

A piece here from the goodwoodraces.com website which highlights the nature of the course:

'The track at Goodwood is unusual, with a 6 furlong straight which connects at one end to a triangular loop. Undulating ground and tight irregular bends favour elegant, nimble and well balanced horses. High draws are sometimes preferable over longer distances but expect surprises on a course which is hard to handle, even for top horses and jockeys'

Couldn't have put it better myself!

I suppose it is similar to Epsom, another track where course form more often that not comes into play. In fact, a horse that handles Epsom is likelier to handle Goodwood and any course form there is encouraging if a horse is coming here for the first time.

Race 1 14.05:

Two course winners here. Firstly the unexposed Madeed for the in form Meehan yard. Won his maiden here before below par at Newmarket. Bounced back with big run last time when tongue tie applied when staying on well on the wrong side in the Britannia, this looks less competitive and handles the track, least exposed of the field and also been tipped by Pricewise so get on quick. 8/1.

Lyn Valley is the other course winner in here and at 22/1 I can't resist an each way punt with Mr Fanning on board. Recent form uninspiring but only 1lb higher than when winning here a year ago and may have been campaigned with Goodwood in mind, yard does well here and not one to rule out.

Race 2 14.35:

Just one course winner here and that is Jungle Cat. Ran a big race last time when behind reopposing Ivawood and on 3lb better terms. Still improving and at what looks a big 8/1 is surely the each way bet of the race. With that course form and the small 3lb pull, he may just be a bit harder to pass than the prices suggest. 5/2 in the without Ivawood market and it my book that should be 6/4. Worth mentioning too that Hannon is yet to have winner so far this week...

One other danger could be Brian Meehan's intriguing contender. His usually come on massively for their debuts and his first time out winners are usually smart. Could be one step too soon but Fox Trotter is worthy of a coverbet each way at a generous 14/1.

Race 3 15.10:

Three course winners in this one but I don't fancy the Henderson runner so scratched that one. Brown Panther is the classier of the two and won this race last year. The news that they are watering again is a bonus, he wouldn't want it super quick but is 2/2 at the trip and can get back to winning ways after a near miss in France and being outstayed in the Gold Cup. Have to say I expected a shorter price than the 7/2 out there.

The second and more intriguing runner for me is Whiplash Willie. This Andrew Balding trained 6yo has only finished outside the top three once in his last nine races and ran a huge race when staying on strongly late on behind Brown Panther at Sandown in May when coming from quite some way back. He has come back from his injury better than ever (two and a half years off the track) and the return to this venue may bring out further improvement. Again though, rattling ground may be a concern though you would hope he would have a chance if connections let him take his chance. 22/1 looks big for a horse who is still lightly raced and very much unexposed at this trip.

Ignoring races 3-5 as they are maidens or have no horses with course form.

Race 6 16.50:

None of these have course form and I was going to leave it there but Almargo caught my attention. Presumably Fanning had the choice and this horse has won at Epsom. (see earlier comments) He ran a shocker last time over an inadequate trip and on horrible ground and ignoring that he would be the favourite here. Quick ground ideal and 3/3 in 7f handicaps. Very dangerous to rule out for a trainer who does well here and a horse that has already won five times this season. 7/1 and the each way bet of what looks a very winnable race.

Race 7 17.25:

Mr Portman has his horses in rude health and his Balmoral Castle has to be of interest in his current mood in the finale. He won with plenty in hand last time despite the young lad nearly throwing it away(!) and is one of two course (and distance) winners in this race. Whilst this is a step up in grade, the slight drop back in trip will be ideal though to be fair I think he is short enough for a race like this so a no bet for me but definitely a danger to the following contender.

The more interesting runner for me here, especially at the prices has to be the other C/D winner Weapon Of Choice. He ran his best race of the season last time when bouncing back to fom, being held up at the back in a very steadily run race before being hampered and boxed in until staying on encouragingly toward the business end. Been let loose off same mark today and I think he will be dangerous as he has won off higher marks in the past and seems to enjoy tricky tracks like these (also won at Epsom.) At 12/1 he is the each way bet of the day for me though one negative is that the jockey hasn't ridden a winner here at Goodwood from five tries.

Also got two running from the tracker tomorrow. Not sure what to make of Saoi who was, how do I put this, ridden very gently last time(!!) but hopefully come on a bunch for reappearance. Was held up in rear in muddling affair then tenderley ridden staying on encouragingly to only be beaten two lengths. In my mind it was a prep run though not sure this small field will suit that well. This represents a drop in grade though and is massively unexposed on turf. Was in same race as Weapon Of Choice last time so hopefully can advertise the form a bit before that one runs. See how we go but certainly shouldn't be outsider of the field at 7/1 and in terms of value is one of the better bets of the day.

King Of Macedon has a worryingly high head carriage which suggests he isn't that genuine but I thought he had more in the tank last time. He seems to be a very keen sort and is obviously a very proud animal. I posted a tweet that if reverting to front running in a small field I thought he would be hard to pass and hopefully he can do that tomorrow from the rail draw with exactly those conditions. My only worry is that as he is a big, and possibly ungenuine and difficult horse, the track may not be to his liking but lets see anyway. 7/2.


Selections:

14.05 - Madeed 8/1 ew Placed // Lyn Valley 22/1 ew WINNER
14.35 - Jungle Cat 8/1 ew Placed // Fox Trotter 14/1 ew
15.05 - Brown Panther 7/2 Placed // Whiplash Willie 22/1 ew NR
16.50 - Almargo 7/1 ew Placed
17.25 - Weapon Of Choice 12/1 ew

Tracker:

16.40 Saoi 7/1 ew
18.55 King Of Macedon 7/2

NAP: Weapon of Choice 12/1
NB: Saoi 7/1
IWAC: Jungle Cat 8/1 Placed


Good Luck if you take the plunge, certainly punted plenty which is unlike us. These types of days end up being absolutely fantastic or failing spectacularly on their heads but guess that's the game isn't it? Hope there are a few winners in there, all feedback welcome and hope you enjoyed the read.

THT

Saturday 24th May

Hope everyone is well and want to take this opportunity to say thankyou for reading. Fancy a big day on Saturday and we have a mega scoop 6 to go for so popping the fancies on the blog. Fancies below but please excuse the fact there are no write ups as extremely busy with work at the moment, hence why I have been quiet on Twitter of late. Not spoken to a fair few of the people I am close to on there in a while and I must apologise. Anyway, hope a few winners will sort that out. Good Luck if you jump on with us, also done a few multiples here and there too but just the singles and Scoop 6 below.

Singles:

2.05 Haydock Discussiontofollow NAP (max eachway bet) NR
2.15 Catterick Samoan (tiny ew of interest and hope!) NR
2.50 Catterick Clockmaker NB (decent ew stake)
3.10 Haydock Joyeuse (win) WINNER
3.20 Curragh Shifting Power IWAC 2nd
3.45 Haydock Blimbi (win) Unplaced
4.20 Haydock Moontime (smallish ew loyalty bet) Unplaced

Scoop 6:

2.05 Run With Pride
2.50 Clockmaker/Dr Red Eye
2.55 Wee Jean WINNER
3.10 Joyeuse WINNER
3.25 Day of the Eagle/Khelman
3.45 Blimbi

Others I am as of yet undecided on are:

Cappella Sansavero 2.15 but forecast of 1/5 for the O'Brien hot shot who will be very hard to beat. WINNER.
Windhoek 1.50 but too short I think, will likely let it win without my money on. 2ND
Chapter Seven 5.05 I may back depending on price, hammered in market lto when returning to form. Unplaced
Peace and War 3.30 meant to be nice 2yo, been withdrawn multiple times recently, good chance. NR
Hot Streak I think will win but too short against such classy opposition, 2.40. WINNER

Good Luck if you fancy any, hopefully will be a very profitable day, few multiples in there to be had too. Tell us what you think and your fancies too.

THT

Monday 24th March

Not often I get excited enough to write a blog on a Monday, especially at this horrible time of year in the transition period between the Cheltenham hangover and flat season being just days away. Furthermore it is often advisable that when you fancy plenty of runners, you leave it altogether as you end up backing far too many runners and everything falls apart. However (bear with me!) these are mostly big prices with in my opinion outstanding chances. Lets start on the All-Weather, which has again been in the spotlight recently, mostly amidst allegations of fixed races, horses being stopped, dodgy betting patterns etc leaving punters wondering whether studying the form book is worth their while as only the people on the inside seem to know what's what.

14.40 Climaxfortackle 10/1 - Three times course winner was quietly fancied when last here when finishing a close second off tumbling mark. Was then punted next time at Kempton when arguably unlucky until running no sort of race last time out. Coming back to Wolverhampton in a race likely to be run at a good gallop due to Amosite, which is what she needs and being the only C/D winner in the field, everything looks set for a big big run from 4lb below her last winning mark.

15.10 Sam Spade 12/1 - Still only a 4yo and didn't make the cut at Hannon's so transferred to Derek Shaw. Things not gone to plan so far and only beaten 6 rivals in 5 races, finishing last on three of those occasions. So why will he run better today? Well he is dropped in grade and can race at nearly basement level today and is now 13lb below last winning mark. Ran over a trip he didn't stay last time and dropped 5lb since so can run off 52 today. Is also dropped back significantly in trip to 7f which can prove key and when connections get called into the stewards room for 'apparent improvement in form,' they have the perfect excuse as Sam gets a visor fitted for the first time today. Also backed Piccolo Express as a small ew coverbet as well below lwm and only C/D winner in field.


Moving on to my local track now at Towcester, the most testing track in the country where three runners catch the eye.

14.00 Such A Legend 11/4 - My best bet of the card and best bet of the day probably. The plan is to go chasing next season but he is turned out again quickly after giving odds on shot and highly regarded Kilcooley a scare last time out. I get the impression connections want a win before tucking him away for chasing in winter and this race looks a golden opportunity. The drop back to 2m suited down to the ground last time and he is over that trip again today. He stays further than this, which at Towcester is a massive asset and with man of the moment Tom Scu in the saddle, I'm not having anything getting past him.

15.00 Bull and Bush 3/1 - Found My Miss Lucy too strong in the finish before romping to victory last time putting the race to bed very nicely, beating an odds on Henderson hot-pot in the process. Stepped up in trip today which on breeding suits her and is strongly fancied to be too good for this lot and is very much a horse to follow, whatever happens on her first try at a staying trip today.

15.30 - Bishophill Jack 18/1 - The each way bet of the day is this C/D winner who regularly runs his best races here and looks handicapped to strike after showing some life last time out. Eased in grade and if on a going day could represent mighty value at what looks a generous 18/1. Also 3/5 in Class 5 races and has a change of headgear today too. Small coverbet in the shape of another well handicapped C/D winner, Jolly Boy's Outing who is surely a ticking time bomb despite his advancing years.


Finally off to Taunton where I fancy one runner at a decent price.

15.50 Spanish Optimist 10/1 - A seven runner race which is annoying but this runner intrigues me but to be honest it is a bit chancy. Richard Johnson rides this one instead of the favourite for Phillip Hobbs where Tom O'Brien gets the leg up and can't really work out why. RJ can easily do the weight on Hobbs inmate and has ridden him before. Maybe it is because SO has a better chance? After taking a closer look I saw that Dickie rode Spanish Optimist once before, and won at a similar price to today beating some decent horses in the process. He hasn't taken that well to chasing but is dropped significantly in class today which could be key, and as I say the jockey booking is very interesting. Anyway, worth a small ew bet I thought.


Selections:

14.00 Such A Legend 11/4 -2ND
14.40 Climaxfortackle 10/1 ew
15.00 Bull and Bush 3/1 - WINNER
15.10 Sam Spade 12/1 ew (Piccolo Express 10/1 coverbet - 3rd)
15.30 Bishophill Jack 18/1 ew (Jolly Boy's Outing 18/1 coverbet)
15.50 Spanish Optimist 10/1 ew

If you are feeling lucky then have a small go at this ew L15:

Climaxfortackle, Sam Spade, Spanish Optimist, Bishophill Jack.

25p ew returns £11186 at best prices ;-)


Good Luck if you fancy any of these, and thankyou for reading.


THT

Cheltenham 2014

It's been a fantastic jumps season where old favourites just kept winning and new champions burst on to the scene. In the four days of best jumps action in the world, we will find out which horses make it, and which fall just short of greatness. This season's Cheltenham Festival looks to be as awesome as ever, with arguably the race of the past few seasons on Day One, The 2014 Champion Hurdle. What a belter it is going to be, hopefully we can find a few winners to help enjoy the four day bonanza even more.

Every jumps season revolves around Cheltenham, and from day one we are looking for horses with realistic prospects of winning at Prestbury Park come March. Some horses won't make it, some will, others will end up being a disappointment, a few will impress but then there's that one that gives you that feeling. That feeling that this horse could be anything; when you think you have seen something special. Immediately he or she goes into the notebook for Cheltenham and you have a browse of the ante-post markets in the likely race (if that is your thing) and see a price three times what you expected. You place your bet and now you wait the long wait every AP punter has to endure every year.

I have seen a few performances that have given me this feeling in my gut this year. While not a big ante-post player myself, I understand why people love it. It takes patience (which I have a frustrating lack of) but you have to be prepared to be very disappointed and frustrated. I have had one or two AP plays this season myself, but nothing major.

Will first go through my confident bets in detail, then post some others I fancy, then throw in a few dark horses to keep an eye out for throughout the four days too.

Let's get started.


Supreme Novices Hurdle

The Supreme will kick off the Festival with the famous loud cheer from the Cheltenham terraces. The race is always run at a breakneck gallop over a distance of just over 2m. Last year My Tent Or Yours who this year lines up in the Champion Hurdle was the well fancied favourite for JP McManus, Jonjo O'Neill and AP McCoy in those famous colours. Champagne Fever however was quietly fancied in Ireland and the money arrived by the bucket-load on the morning of the opening race. The grey gamely made all and despite MTOY looking all over the winner when cruising upsides before the last, the brave grey dug in and repelled the McCoy drive; the rest is history. This year he goes for the Arkle, the very next race on the card.

This years Supreme looks as exciting as ever, with some really nice prospects lining up. Irving will be many peoples' idea of the winner as he is unbeaten for Paul Nicholls over hurdles and looks a very smart horse. He is flat bred and has bags of speed - a fascinating contender, especially when you consider he is said to need better ground which he looks likely to get here. That said he hasn't really faced a testing track like Cheltenham just yet. Vautour is the main market rival and was impressive when merely being pushed out to beat odds on shot The Tullow Tank who now doesn't run here due to the Fenton scandal that has come to light. TTT could be a very smart horse so Vautour has to be taken seriously, though at as short as 5/2 would certainly not be for me. Josses Hill is another with good claims and Alan King's smart flat recruit, First Mohican at 33/1 could outrun those odds. The apparent WPM second string also is one to keep an eye on, money has started to arrive for Wicklow Brave and one to keep very much on side. The forgotten horse, however could be The Liquidator, who can put a poor run behind him and might run a big race at 25/1. He has already shown a liking for Cheltenham and can be excused his last run. Not one to rule out, despite the fact his trainer faces a race against time to have him ready.

Stats:

Worth pointing out no favourite or joint favourite has won this race since 2004. Six of the last nine winners have been priced at double figure odds. Irish entrants have a strong record in this race and most winners have shown good form in large fields while being lightly raced. Fourteen of the last sixteen winners won their last race. Eleven of the last thirteen winners had raced at least once in the last 45 days.

I have to say, the way Irving quickened lto to put the race to bed after making a hash of the last really stayed with me - was very impressive and has a great chance but is probably too short now for me, especially as there are one or two niggling doubts. The Liquidator interests me e/w but not as much as my selection for this race, 100/1 shot Un Ace. The way this highly regarded horse travelled on debut for Kim Bailey was very notable and he always looked the winner. That was until a bad mistake 3 out where he pecked on landing and lost all momentum. However, he quickly picked up the bridle and came clear with ease after the last in taking fashion. The strong pace here will suit this horse down to the ground and he could be making up ground late on as they tire ahead. Yes he didn't beat much and he can't afford to make mistakes in this race but if he lines up he could throw a spanner in the works at huge odds as he is a horse with bags of potential.

Selection: UN ACE 100/1 ew

Preview evening notes:

Vaniteux was very well fancied by the panel and Henderson stable jockey Andrew Tinkler opted for Vaniteux as opposed to stablemate Josses Hill. They noted however that the race hasn't always been the intended target, yet money has started to arrive in the past few days or so and he is fancied at home. Most of the panel agreed that Vaniteux will start a single figure price, with suggestions of 6/1-7/1 SP. It was confirmed that Barry Geraghty is likely to ride the horse and Andrew Tinkler made the horse his e/w bet of the festival. For what it's worth Rory nominated Wilde Blue Yonder as his e/w fancy of the race.

Arkle

The Arkle, like the Supreme, is run at a furious pace with a huge emphasis on jumping technique. Market leaders traditionally perform well in this race and always worth keeping an eye on both Alan King and Nicky Henderson horses as both trainers have a good record in this race. Last year the grey Simonsig held off a mighty run from Mouse Morris's Baily Green who looked the winner up the run in when closing him down until the odds on grey asserted close home under Geraghty to win in workmanlike fashion.

Another grey, and current favourite Champagne Fever will be fancied by many to take this year's crown. The horse loves Cheltenham, and as already mentioned is very game and brave but I think there is a big question mark over his jumping, as shown last time when being well beaten by both Trifolium and Defy Logic. The aforementioned Trifolium is an exciting contender for me here. He jumps well, has strong form and there is definitely more to come. He likes Cheltenham too, as shown when 3rd in the Supreme in 2012, just a neck behind the ill fated Darlan and a length or two behind the Donald McCain trained winner. 6/1 a great price I think. Rock On Ruby is one I fancied for a long time and have backed ante-post at a fair price. That said this field looks competitive enoug and he can't afford to make novicey errors though will get his ground. Another worth a mention is Valdez. I love this horse and his big white face and he looks a fair price at 10/1. Alan King who, as mentioned, has a good record in this, is putting enormous faith in him as Kingy's other 2m chasing star Balder Succes will miss Cheltenham. BS put in a rousing jumping display and won with a good bit in hand last time and is very much a horse to follow.

Stats:

Eight of the last ten winners came from the first three in the market. Eight of the last ten winners won their last race. Only two of the last ten favourites have won the race. Nine of the last ten winners aged between 5 and 7. The last eight winners were either first or second in their last three races.

Not one that really stands out for me at a bigger price here and I have already backed Rock On Ruby AP but Trifolium is my selection for Arkle glory. 6/1 looks a very fair price all things considered and I think this horse is still improving. He jumps well, has course form and surely will put up a bold bid. Valdez would be a danger too and I may have a little multi-tricast on the morning on the three mentioned. It's Cheltenham after all! ;-)

Selection: TRIFOLIUM 6/1

Preview evening notes:

Jumping doubts about Champagne Fever but Tinkler says horse deserves to be favourite. Trifolium touted as the wise man's bet of the race. Tony Calvin says Rock on Ruby was never seen as a chaser by Paul Nicholls, the horse has had his breathing issues and at the age of 9, is too short at current price. Ted Veale was Dan Skelton's ew fancy in the race, but each panellist put up a different horse for the race, showing the competitive nature of this year's renewal.


Champion Hurdle

Being dubbed the race of the meeting and for good reason. It looks an absolute belter of a race. The line up is mouthwatering. Reigning champ Hurricane Fly, Twiston Davies stable star The New One, the strong travelling My Tent Or Yours, Our Conor who demolished his rivals in the Triumph last year, the forgotten horse Jezki, as well as Melodic Rendezvous amongst others. What. A. Line-up. Would have been even better with Annie Power but she goes for the World Hurdle (more on that later!)

Last year loyal Hurricane Fly backers had their hearts in their mouths at one stage but the wonder horse who has an astonishing amount of Grade One's to his name showed his bravery running out a comfortable enough winner in the end from Rock on Ruby who made a brave effort from the front. His big heart shone that day and despite people rubbishing the Fly's Grade One victories ("hardly a grade one, only beaten three average handicappers blah blah blah") he has the heart of a lion and is a fantastic beast. By the way if he is beaten this year and the haters come out again, just remind them of the dark day last year at the festival when they layed the Fly with their entire Chelt fund, that will shut them up :-)

This year he lines up again, and is in flying form as ever, twice beating the re-opposing Our Conor and Jezki. As for My Tent Or Yours, you can argue all day and give me all the reasons under the sun why he will go well but let me tell you this. He will not win, he is not good enough, end of. While I admire the horse, I just can't see he has the class to win a Champion Hurdle, especially with a stellar line up like this against him. Nope, not for me at all. I am a huge fan of The New One too and he could come second or third but not my idea of the winner either. Despite blundering the last and throwing the race, he was disappointing last time as I thought he would have the class to recover and get back up. However, he will likely get a good gallop here which will suit down to the ground and should run a big race. Jezki has enough questions to answer and despite the enticing price, hard to think he is good enough though there are one or two bits of money around for him with the MTOY injury scare coming to light. Interesting too that Captain Cee Bee has been supplemented for the race.

Stats:

Only four winners over the age of eight since 1951. 25 of last 30 won their last race. 18 of last 24 had won at Cheltenham before. Irish won 9 of last 15. Two of last seven favourites won. Only one five year old won in 29 years.

The one I strongly fancy for this, despite his young age is Our Conor. While admittedly, the price is skinny in the context of this race, I was really taken with his last run behind the Fly. He travelled so so well throughout the race and took over just after the last. However the Fly dug deep and his big heart won him the day getting back up close home but OC will have again come on for that and remember nothing has ever beaten the Fly at Leopardstown. OC also loves Cheltenham. Undoubtedly the most impressive performance of the 2013 festival was Our Conor's humiliation of his rivals, bounding away on the bridle loving every second of it to win by 15 odd lengths. A performance that truly took the breath away. You can ignore his reappearance run this season  because he 'looked like a hairy goat' and was badly in need of the run. Also, he is a superb jumper of hurdles, which you have to be to win a Champion Hurdle. Dessie Hughes will have him 100% race fit this time and I think he will run a mighty race; the young kid on the block (remember he is only a 5yo - hugely exciting animal!) can teach his more experienced rivals a lesson, at the main expense of the grand old boy, Hurricane Fly. Will be a cracking race either way and I can't wait.

Selection: OUR CONOR 9/2

Festival Preview Notes:

Most of the panel seemed to be on the MTOY/TNO formline but all admit that race is an appalling betting proposition. General consesus is that Hurricane Fly is the one they all have to beat. Tony Calvin makes very good point about Our Conor. Horse was massively weak in market in last race, available at 7/1-8/1 on exchanges and massively outran his market expectations. Suggests that he will improve and Dessie will have him 100% ready on the day, his tentative selection for the race. Tinkler sings MTOY praises, little made of injury scare and is his idea of the winner.


Neptune

The New One was victorious in this race last year, staying on well in the final furlong to win in cosy fashion after taking up the running just before the last. Mullins' Pont Alexandre was many people's idea of banker of the whole four day meeting but ultimately disappointed back in third place at short odds.

Faugheen is the place to start in this. The gelding is unbeaten for Mullins, winning four races from four attempts, all in quite taking fashion. Looks a smart horse indeed though lacks substantial high class form for me, especially at the unappealing price of 11/4 at time of writing. Needs to show he can mix it in top class races and he may well do, but for me is worth finding something with a meatier price, especially as there are one or two concerns over his jumping. Red Sherlock may just be the answer here. What still looks a generous 6/1, a flawless six from six, the chestnut looks well worth a punt. Has course form too, last time winning the trial by 3L from the well touted Rathvinden. That is solid form. The one I see as a viable ew player is Royal Boy who is priced at 14/1 at the time of writing. Just under a length behind Melodic Rendezvous on debut here at Chelt, this horse has since gone on to win the Tolworth Hurdle, beating his better fancied stablemate Josses Hill in the process. His stamina told that day and going back up in trip will be no problem, and does look good value here at the odds.

Stats:

Only two of the last twenty-four winners weren't aged five or six. Nine of the last ten winners finished first or second last time out. Nine out of the last ten winners had won over at least 2m4f over hurdles. Eight out of the last ten have finished first or second in all completed hurdle races.

Have backed two for this myself as mentioned. Firstly David Pipe's unbeaten Red Sherlock. Course form is so important at Cheltenham and he also has more experience in better races than the market leader. Still think the price is generous, you can even profit backing ew at this stage should he only manage a place. Royal Boy has also taken some of my cash e/w. That Tolworth hurdle form over a trip on the sharp side looks strong, stepping back up will suit this horse and has to be a big each way player at the very least. 14/1 looks big and not sure how long that will last as the money is starting to arrive.


Selection: RED SHERLOCK 6/1 and ROYAL BOY 14/1 ew

Preview evening notes:

Andrew Tinkler seemed very optimistic about Royal Boy's chances and suggested that the now deflated price of 7/1 still represents good ew value. Rory has backed Faugheen and Tony Calvin has had his biggest bet in the race in the shape of Un Temps Pour Tout and makes him his e/w bet of the festival. Red Sherlock got a good mention and Lydia really likes Sure Reef for the Coral Cup but he takes his place here instead.


RSA

The competitors who line up in this are all coming to the end of their first season over fences and this race can be their stepping stone to great things as shown by Denman in 2007. The race is over 3m and is one of the more testing races of the festival. Last year Lord Windermere took advantage of a tumbling fall at the death from Boston Bob, who looked to have the race at his mercy. LW held off the late challenge of Lyreen Legend to win by just over a length. A fortunate winner, and the horse hasn't done much since, being well beaten in three graded starts since his RSA triumph.

This year looks a particularly tricky renewal with no obvious winner jumping out of the card. However, one horse I have been waiting for all season is Gordon Elliot's tank of a horse, Don Cossack. The German bred seven year old is an absolute beast, if you are at Cheltenham go and see this horse in the paddock, has a massive presence about him. Ballycasey will start likely favourite but in a race of this competitive nature he really is too short. Annacotty deserves a special mention, one we have followed all year and Corrin Wood certainly looks a player while Many Clouds for me is a bit of a dark horse.

Stats:

The last thirteen winners all ran at least three times over fences. Only two six year olds have won the RSA since 1978. The last three favourites to have won were rated at least 134 over hurdles. The Irish have only won four RSA's since 1985 but those four have all been in the last ten years Seven year olds have won eight of the last ten renewals, including the last seven in a row. 24 of the last 25 winners had either won or been second on their last run.

As I say, Don Cossack is the one I have been waiting for. Going up to 3m for the first time is sure to suit and he should run a big race, at a price too, still 16/1 widely available. Corrin Wood interests me but a tad short in context now for me to really be interested. That said, another horse I simply have to back is Annacotty. The horse improved 22lbs in just three months, as well as giving trainer, jockey and owner their first Grade 1 success when dotting up in the Feltham winning very impressively, especially considering he was the lowest rated horse in the field. That is very strong form, and going back up to 3m will suit this front runner down to the ground. There could even be more to come as he is only a 6yo and he has experience at Cheltenham, a valuable asset which some competitors don't possess, most notably the current favourite. Despite having a key stat against him (age), he looks a likely player. Rule Annacotty out at your peril.

Selection: DON COSSACK 16/1 ew and ANNACOTTY 20/1 ew

Preview evening notes:

Rory says Corrin Wood is being well backed but needs softer ground. Smad Place is Stan James biggest loser in the book. Rory tips up Carlingford Lough ew. Lydia thinks Le Bec is still a massive price and there were doubts expressed about Sam Winner's right trip - connections not sure whether he wants 3m or 4m. Stat mentioned that the last 50 winners had run in the same calendar year. This rules out Morning Assembly. Smad place nominated as the classiest horse in the race, however his confidence and attitude questioned. Dan Skelton puts in a very good word for Many Clouds at a price and everyone against Ballycasey - big deal made of schooling fall.

Champion Chase

Was disappointed like all true racing fans but also very surprised when Nicky Henderson announced that the wonderful Sprinter Sacre was to miss this year's festival. Obviously the heart issue was a lot more serious that some people thought and the right decision has been made for the safety and well being of the horse. Hope to see him back on the track soon and back to his glorious best here again next year. Sprinter Sacre's absence now opens this year's race right up.

Stats:

Biggest price winner since 2000 was 16/1. Only three double figure price winners in last thirteen years. Eleven of the last fourteen winners were 5/1 or less. 21 of the last 28 winners had been previously placed at the Festival. Only five favourites won in last sixteen years.

While Sire De Grugy is a very good horse, he is not my idea of a Champion Chase winner. He much prefers running the other way and his runs here have been disappointing, no not for me, especially at 7/4. Benefficient is one of great interest. Last year's Jewson winner bounced right back to form last time and is a horse with class. He stays 2m very well too. A more interesting contender at the price for me, however is Module. Backed him last time when winning gamely from the Arkle contender, Dodging Bullets. He was headed but his stamina told, and he got back up close home. Staying the 2m well is very important at Chelt. He ran a very good race here last year too, not far behind the previously mentioned Benefficient. Everything happened a bit quickly for him and when the penny finally dropped it was too late. However, at 16/1 he looks well worth an ew play to me if ridden a bit handier and with another year's experience under the belt.

Selection: MODULE 16/1 ew

Preview evening notes:

Rory says Sire De Grugy the one to back by default. Baily Green being well backed and Alderwood has been ruled out for the entire festival. Kid Cassidy likely to place due to the likely way he will be ridden says Lydia. Dan Skelton really fancies Wishfull Thinking and nominates him as his e/w bet of the festival. Lydia and Andrew both opt for Kid Cassidy as likely to be placed, Special Tiara takes Tony's fancy. Rory thinks Sizing Europe is overpriced.

Ryanair

With last year's victor Cue Card now a non runner for the entire meet due to a muscle injury, this race is wide open. He probably would have gone to the Gold Cup anyway but again, while disappointing, the right decision has been made. There could still be some serious horses taking part, the grey Al Ferof, First Lieutenant for Mouse Morris who was 2nd last year and another grey, Dynaste amongst others.

Stats:

Only one of the nine winners priced over 6/1. Only two favourites have won the race. Seven of the nine winners aged eight or over. All winners bar one had previously won at the course.


Dynaste is a horse I like and have backed this season but I missed the bigger price and I have been disappointed by his recent runs and now have decided to jump ship. First Lieutenant is a serious horse and looks a real danger. Benefficient could line up here instead of the champion chase but with SS out will surely opt for the 2m event. Tried to find some value in the race and at first glance I was going to leave it, but after speaking to someone on Twitter I was convinced he was on to something. This horse ran in the Lexus, travelling strongly until tiring up the run in, finishing not far behind some classy horses. He was said by connections to have badly needed the run. He was then bang there in the Hennessey next time until late in the day when tiring again against some proper horses once more as you would expect in such a race. However, the drop back in trip for Lyreen Legend looks a great move and he ran a cracker last year in the RSA. Yes, this horse has really tickled my fancy and can defy the stats and run a massive race at what could turn out to be a massive price at 20/1. << Since writing this Dessie has said that he will likely target the Gold Cup which is very annoying as the Ryanair is there for the taking and Lyreen Legend doesn't stay well enough to win the GC!


Preview evening notes:

All the panel agree that the two greys will fight this out. Tony thinks Al Ferof would have won the Champion Chase if competing but thinks Dynaste is the one to beat at the longer trip. Rory can't see past the top three (including Benefficient) who Lydia says will win this race if lining up. Tinkler thinks Dynaste is worth forgiving his last run and nominates him as likely winner then it is revealed that Dynaste has had a wind op since his last race. Pipe yard keeping it quiet though.

World Hurdle

The World Hurdle is the feature race on day three of the festival. Last year, Solwhit took the glory in the absence of Big Bucks who won it the four years prior. Oscar Whisky was the 9/4 favourite but never really looked happy and ended up not even completing, being pulled up before jumping the last. This year, Big Buck's is back, aiming to win his fifth World Hurdle. Whatever happens here, I am of the opinion that this will be the old fella's last race, though that is by no means a fact. Annie Power is a mouth watering contender and this is being billed as a straight match up. However, the unexposed and hugely exciting More Of That throws a spanner in the works.

Stats:

No 5yo ever won. French bred horses won eight of last twelve runnings. Solwhit was the first Irish trained winner for eighteen years.Only one front runner has held on for a place since 1996. Seventeen of the last twenty winners had run at the previous year's festival. Seven of the last ten runnings have seen the top five in the betting occupy the top three finishing places. Nine of the last ten winners won the race before. No double figure priced winner this century.

Two words for me here. Annie. Power. My biggest fancy of the festival is she. The wonder mare is still yet to be troubled by any horse she has faced, and this won't change in the World Hurdle. I thought she would contest the Champion Hurdle originally (which would have made the race even more special) but that Willie Mullins is a shrewd and wise old man. Coming over to England for a 2m prep race, yeah right was he planning on the Champion Hurdle ;-) All part of the fun! Back to Annie. A perfect 10/10, the step up to 3m will enable her to show even more. The further she goes the better she will be. She recorded her best RPR when running over the greatest distance she has contested; 20f at Cheltenham on heavy ground, making Zarkandar look like the stable cat in the process. Even more impressive perhaps was her Fairyhouse victory last March, again over 20f. She really could be anything, she could be something very very special indeed and I think this is the race that finally makes people say 'whoa, this horse is something else.' She could be scary good. More Of That is exciting, but will need to be something out of this world if he can take this on only his forth start. After this race I think Big Bucks will be seen as a great of the past and Annie Power will be seen as a world beater of the future. Banker.

Selection: ANNIE POWER 3/1 FESTIVAL BANKER


Preview evening notes:

Tony says Nicholls' aim is to get Annie Power beaten and he will try everything to make it a proper staying test. He also says he hasn't seen Nicholls quite as bullish about anything in a while. Celestial Halo nominated as the likely pacemaker, Salubrious nominated as an underrated dark horse. PFN thinks Big Bucks is back to his best and will be 100% ready on the day. Lydia points out that Annie Power can be a bit buzzy and will need to settle early on. When asked which horse he would ride, Tinkler replies 'Definitely Annie Power.' However, he then goes on to stay Big Bucks is the proven stayer, Annie Power has to show she can get the 3m in the hardest race of her life. Dan Skelton sums up race very well. Says the two that beat BB last time would never have dreamed to have got so close, let alone pass him, even considering he needed the run. Says how much do you forgive him for last run and how much will he come on for it. Lydia suggests he might go backward and run a shocker, Dan dismisses that quite readily. Rory says Big Bucks is ready and the Nicholls camp will offer no excuses if he is beaten. All agree it is a two horse race, though as said, Salubrious likely to outrun his price as well.


Triumph Hurdle

The forth and final day of the festival opens with the Triumph Hurdle. This race is for four year old juveniles and is run over a distance of two miles and one furlong. The race was won last year in breathtaking fashion by my Champion Hurdle fancy Our Conor. I urge you to watch last year's demolition again, stunning performance. This year looks a very tricky puzzle with countless chances.

Stats:

No filly won since 2000. Only one favourite obliged since 2000. Eight of last ten winners won last time out. Last nine winners posted an RPR of 132 or more in one or both of their last two runs. Eight of last ten winners had won a hurdles race by at least 7 lengths. Winner came from first four in the betting in eight of last nine runnings. Nine of last ten winners had run on the flat.

I have no strong fancy in this race. I made two ante-post bets but doubtful whether either will run now after disappointing recently. I think Alcala is very highly regarded and very much next season's horse but he had a Triumph entry and was worth an ew tickle at 33/1 I thought. Considering the long break I thought he ran an encouraging race last time behind Activial. I am sure Nicholls said he would put the grey away now till next season but you never know. Another I backed who has been very disappointing is Chocola. This horse is highly regarded but for some reason things are not clicking on the course for him. A doubtful runner now and 50/1 probably the price he ought to be even if he does run. Stranger things have happened though. If neither of these run then I probably won't back anything else, too competitive and nothing I strongly fancy. Just to be clear, I would not advise backing either of these horses now, but just putting up my two AP fancies.

Preview evening notes:

Rory thinks Activial could be pulled from the race if the ground dries out too much. Le Rocher was never seen as a Triumph horse before the trial apparently. He is a stayer in the making and may need quicker ground says Lydia. Tinkler says neither Henderson horse will get the ground they need, he likes Le Rocher. The top three in the market never won on the flat, nine of last ten winners of race had done so. Tony and Rory opt for Le Rocher, Dan Skelton fancies Broughton to place and Lydia throws in Gitane Du Berlais. 'If handles ground, and big if, then could be a huge price.' Points out that she will get the weight allowance, that said no filly won since 2000.

Gold Cup

The feature race of the four day festival is held on the final day. The gruelling 26 furlong trip brings together the best staying chasers in the world to fight it out up that hill for a place in the history books. Last year's race was as eventful as ever. My main Cheltenham fancy, Silviniaco Conti crashed out when travelling oh so well. Would he have won? No one is to know, either way. Bob's Worth looked beat but the little horse's massive heart and determination saw him home and he won quite comfortably in the end. This year he is back to defend his crown, and will likely start a shortish priced favourite. Gallant Long Run was back in third and this year goes to the National, his Gold Cup days are over. Last year's runner up, Sir Des Champs who was my AP fancy this year, unfortunately ruled out through injury some time ago.

Stats:

Last fourteen winners had previously won a Grade 1. Ten of last thirteen either won or finished second at the festival before. Only one 6yo has won in the last 40 years. Only one of the last twenty winners aged ten or older. Twelve of the last thirteen winners rated 166 or higher. Last thirteen winners have been from the top three in the betting.

Not a massive stats man myself but the Gold Cup winner is nearly always prominent in the market. The favourite, Bob's Worth is rightly the price he is. Unbeaten at Cheltenham, and a brave performance in this race last year in a stronger renewal, he is very much the one to beat for me. Silviniaco Conti will have a great chance if getting round and could pose a big threat, many will fancy him, but after last year and considering the shortish price I won't be backing him this time. The worrying thing for backers here is that he has had only two runs at the course, once falling and the other coming third behind Menorah and Cue Card over three years ago. However, he was impressive when winning the King George last time and should run a big race. Last Instalment will be under scrutiny in light of the recent Fenton case. For me, he would be an uncomfortable winner. The sport has already got a bad reputation, and rightly so in some cases, and a horse that could have possibly been subject to steroid use winning one of the most prestigious races of the entire season would leave me feeling uneasy. Of course this isn't fair on the horse, but that is the nature of the beast. However, his Hennessey win was very impressive and is well fancied for this, despite the fact he has never been seen at Cheltenham before though the drying ground is a big worry.

If one was to pop up at a huge price, it may be the rejuvenated and experienced Giant Bolster, or maybe Harry Topper if conditions got very testing which at this stage looks very doubtful. For me I will likely only be watching this year. I think the race lacks the usual magic and spark. Cue Card missing the race is a shame, but I am very sceptical as to whether he would have been good enough to win a Gold Cup, even a watery one like this. (Unfair?) No credit shall be taken away from the winner however, who in my mind is likely to be Bob's Worth once more. If things get very heavy, Harry Topper may have some of my cash each way and if old Giant Bolster looks especially up for it come post time, he may have a few quid from me on the place market.

Preview evening notes:

General consensus that Bob's Worth will retain his Gold Cup crown. Triolo D'alene and Captain Chris put up as each way alternatives. Race seen as a matchup between the top two in the market though most agree their prices should be more closely matched. Point made that this years race looks weaker than the one he won last year. Last Instalment needs softer ground and talk that he could be pulled.



Other preview evening notes:

Rory says Sue Smith is very sweet on the chances of her horse Blakemount in the Albert Bartlett. Lydia has backed King's Palace but Briar Hill was the one they all liked. Concern about absence for KP as well as Tom Scu going off too fast and being overly aggressive. Captain Cutter confirmed for race by Tinkler, the panel agree it is a two horse race and four of the panel favoured Briar Hill over the main market rival with Rory putting him up as his bet of the festival.

Quevega did a blistering piece of work last week and is supposedly as good as ever. Glen's Melody confirmed retired to stud at the end of the season. Swing Bowler only 50/50 for the race with Pipe apparently siding with another race for her. Rory fancies L'Unique as the classiest horse without the favourite and looks big at 25/1. Lydia says one day age will catch up with her and she won't win, and says the French horse the one likely to capitalise if so. Cockney Sparrow written off as not good enough. Andrew agrees with Rory and says Quevega will win and L'Unique will place if good ground. All the panel were conclusive in that they would not lay Quevega.

Lydia really fancies Indian Castle in the Kim Muir and Rory says Donald McCain nominated him as his NAP of the meeting. Rory also shared that he had been told to back Forced Family Fun by John Quinn's son for whichever race he gets into at the festival. Pendra, Mr Mole and Indian Castle all been popular in the markets says Rory. Tony shares with us that PFN thought the handicapper had made a mistake rising Vibrato Valtat by only 1lb for his win. He thought it was an 11lb rise and it was a misprint. He was shocked when the 1lb rise was confirmed as he can't remember one of his horses only going up 1lb for a win. Tony says could be extremely well handicapped. Andrew nominates Dawalan as being well handicapped and could sport headgear for the first time and Ericht has a massive chance if the ground keeps drying out. Tony nominates Present View (NHC) Next Sensation (GA) Tap Night (Byrne) and Goodwood Mirage (FW) as his four handicap good things. Lydia likes Sure Reef as she thinks he is well handicapped and supposedly did a lightning piece of work this week. Dan Skelton says he has been told 'Fingal Bay will win' and adds further meat to the bones about Wishfull Thinking's Champion Chase chances. Discussing Cup Final, Tinkler says he is very nice this year, but next year he will be great. One to stick in the tracker.

After listening to the preview I have selected six horses to take away from it at big prices, you will find them below. Was a great evening and will certainly be going to more of them next year, hope you found what they said as interesting as I did, and hopefully they have given us one or two more winners!

Other bets

One other bet I have already made but not talked about is VENDOR in the Coral Cup at a healthy ew price of 20/1. The French-bred gelding was last seen running a good race in the Grade 3 Betfair Hurdle. Being a hold up horse, he does need a decent pace and things to drop his way which they did in the race before when he won going away at Newbury. He beat a very decent field then, including Saphir Du Rheu who is now rated 158. He also beat a smart horse called Shotavodka as well as some other decent yardsticks. He won't mind the big field either as the grey enjoys running through other horses. The horse ran here at Cheltenham before as well, finishing a good third on only his second start in the UK. The step back up in trip will suit Vendor and while this race is super competitive, I think he can run a very big race for the Alan King yard who won this race last year with Medinas at an even bigger price.

NED BUNTLINE is one I have been made aware of in the final race of the festival. While short enough for a race of this nature at 14/1, he will be bidding to give JP McManus his third success in a row with three different trainers. While having no course form, he has never been out the first three. Always have to be wary of Nicky Henderson runners in this race but the bigger danger could come from the promising Next Sensation, one to keep on side for sure. However Ned is carrying a nice weight and looks well handicapped and should keep his record of never finishing out the places intact.

Aside from the races mentioned, I have noted a few horses below to lookout for. They will likely start at big prices and if everything looks right pre-race I will be having some ew money on them. Just small fancies but definitely horses to look out for for various different reasons. Also below is a summary of my Ante-Post bets as well as a few multiples I have had. Obviously I understand some of the prices mentioned have long gone now but plenty of value still to be had, this is just a blog of my AP bets for the festival :-)


Ante-Post Fancies:

Supreme Novices Hurdle: UN ACE 100/1 ew - Unplaced
Arkle Chase: TRIFOLIUM 6/1 - PLACED
Champion Hurdle: OUR CONOR 9/2 - FELL (Fatally injured :-( )
Neptune: RED SHERLOCK 6/1 - Unplaced
Neptune: ROYAL BOY 14/1 ew NR
RSA: DON COSSACK 16/1 ew FELL
RSA: ANNACOTTY 20/1 ew - Unplaced
Coral Cup: VENDOR 20/1 ew - Unplaced
Champion Chase:  MODULE 20/1 ew PLACED
World Hurdle: ANNIE POWER 3/1 PLACED
Grand Annual: NED BUNTLINE 14/1 ew


Horses to look out for in handicaps and races not mentioned

THE LIQUIDATOR - Supreme Novices 25/1 - Unplaced
ALAIVAN -  County Hurdle - 14/1
MANY CLOUDS - RSA 16/1 FELL
COYABA - Champion Bumper 66/1 - Unplaced
STACK THE DECK - Champion Bumper 50/1 - PU (Fatally injured :-( )
CLONARD LAD - Pertemps 20/1 NR
PRESENT VIEW - Novices Handicap 14/1 WINNER
GREEN FLAG - Festival Handicap 25/1 PLACED
HADRIANS APPROACH - Festival Handicap 12/1 - Unplaced
STAR NEUVILLE - Cross Country - 8/1 - Unplaced

SEA BEAT - Fred Winter 16/1 NR
TAP NIGHT - Byrne Plate 14/1

Horses to take away from preview evening:

VANITEUX - Supreme 12/1 PLACED
WISHFULL THINKING - Champion Chase 33/1 - Unplaced
GITANE DU BERLAIS - Triumph 16/1 NR
UN TEMPS POUR TOUT - Neptune 14/1 NR
FORCED FAMILY FUN - Fred Winter 25/1 NR
VIBRATO VALTAT - County Hurdle 20/1 NR
FINGAL BAY - Pertemps 7/1 WINNER


Multiples


Lucky 15 and doubles:

Annie Power, Trifolium, Our Conor, Red Sherlock. (add Briar Hill for a L31)

Also done various ew L15's and e/w multiples using horses mentioned priced 10/1+

Update:

Bookie buster ew Lucky 31:

Green Flag 16/1, Vendor 14/1, Ned Buntline 12/1, Tap Night 9/1, Stack The Deck 33/1

Returns £466,592 for 25p each way.


Other pointers:

Worth keeping an eye out for the horse that Danny Mullins chooses to ride in the Champion Bumper. Also in same race, the Dermot Weld runner will likely run a big race. Still has two entered, but if only one turns up that could be a big tip in itself.

Hope you enjoyed reading our Cheltenham preview, any comments and RT's of the link on Twitter are greatly appreciated. Good Luck if you like the sound of any of these and have a go yourself. Be lucky at the festival but more importantly make sure you enjoy the four days of best jumps action in the world. I can't wait for it all to start!

Regards,

THT