What a torrid week it has been for my wallet and I can only apologise to those of you good enough to follow me in, we win together and lose together but I'll stop there or I might end up sounding like King Kris. Today is the day I have been waiting for, and the day connections of a certain horse have been waiting for too. It may be obvious and it may even have a whiff of muggy about it but today's NAP is a strong one and at 16/1 we can make the money back and more if he does the business.
Barnet Fair is the horse in question. This is seemingly the only day in the calendar that matters for this horse this season and you won't have seen a more obvious plot for quite some time. You simply need to look at the replay of his last run to see what I mean, Hughesie never touched him but in the process got to know him and he will have a great chance of a winner on his final day in the saddle. At the end of the day, however it is a 28 runner sprint, so you need a lot of luck. 16/1 paying five places is a bet I can't fathom you not seeing some sort of return on though. He's on the same mark as when winning this last year and despite most riders barely moving on him this season, the most he has been beaten is by 5 lengths. If you are looking for some sort of coverbet then Go Far and Links Drive Lady could both go close both at a huge 40/1 and may be worth tidying your account balance on each way but this will hopefully be Barnet Fair's day.
John Gosden has won the Nassau the last three years and he looks to have a very strong hand with the exciting Bright Appraoch, (albeit chucked into the deep end with her pockets full of stones and her feet tied together) the never nearer Oaks runner Jazzi Top and the Prix De Diane winner Star Of Seville. It is the latter that I really like for this, she has some of the best form and was right there in the Oaks when badly hampered from which recovery was impossible. That trip was too far anyway and 10f is exactly what she wants as shown by her Group 1 win last time. Frankie and John Gosden have had a memorable season to say the least and this filly can add another feather in the cap of the rejuvenated partnership. At 7/1, I struggle to see how that doesn't stand out to the average punter as an extremely appealling each way proposition. Yes the favourite is very classy but she's been beaten the last twice and while the rest of the field are no pushovers, this looks the stable number one and she has the ideal profile for this race. The jockey is unbeaten when riding her and can make it four from four tomorrow and make it four in a row for the Gosden yard in this race in the process.
For a horse to carry top weight to victory in a race like the Stewards Cup, it has to be a Group level performer and that's exactly what Tropics is. It's disappointing to see Pat Cosgrave at Newmarket tomorrow instead of on this lad's back as I thought he gave him an exceptional ride the last day when only beaten a nose in the Group 1 July Cup at a huge price. That said Adam Kirby was successful the only time he was on board so hopefully it will make little difference. I presume the top weight statistics aren't great, they rarely are in a race of this nature but I think this horse has the neccessary talent to defy it. This is his first handicap run in two years, that run being this race two festivals ago when a never nearer sixth. Since then he has won a couple of listed races and a Group 3 and ran a clear career best last time when beaten a whisker by the rapidly improving Muharrar at Newmarket. This was nominated as his target straight after that race and he has to have a serious chance on that form despite shouldering a big weight. Huntsmans Close and especially Ninjago are the likely dangers but it's wide open and at 14/1 paying five places, this lad has to be the bet and is the real class angle on the race.
Ignoring a horse having a 100% course record isn't something I can usually do, especially at a unique track like Goodwood and especially when trained by Mark Johnston. Enlace is the horse in question and goes in the penultimate handicap. She's been well beaten of late, the latest only seven days ago but that gives us the appealling 10/1 price and reverted to her usual front running tactics returned to this course with my favourite jockey in the saddle, I can't not have a few quid each way. Saying that the yard runs three others in the race and knowing my luck this week I've backed completely the wrong one. She's the only course and distance winner in the field and I'm hopeful there may still be a bit of jucie left in her mark, worth a small punt I think.
Selections:
14.00 Barnet Fair 16/1 ew (5 places) NAP
15.10 Star Of Seville 7/1 ew NB
15.45 Tropics 14/1 ew (5 places) IWAC
16.55 Enlace 10/1 ew
It's been a tough week but this was the day I was looking forward to and I am confident we can turn the tables on Goodwood 2015. It's been a very lucky festival for me in the past and hopefully it's been saving a big final day.
Good luck if you follow, hopefully the faith will be rewarded.
THT
Friday 31 July 2015
Thursday 30 July 2015
Glorious Goodwood Day Four
Happy I left yesterday alone, wouldn't have backed any of the winners except possibly the brilliant Shalaa, what an exciting prospect he is for the classics next season. Wednesday was a tough day but the small stakes involved meant it wasn't as painful as it could have been. On to Friday where I have two strong selections that should both take all the beating.
I was torn between two in the feature sprint but I'm siding with Cotai Glory over Moviesta. A classy two year old, he ran a massive race on reappearance where he was said to 'badly need the run' by his trainer only going down by a neck or so to the reopposing Out Do. He would have come on a bunch for that and it will have him absolutely spot on for this race, a welcome return to the course he was successful at last year in the Molecomb. He still has improvement in him and can take this on route to the Nunthorpe at York later in the season. I'll have a little on the RFC with Moviesta too, this race clearly been a target for a while, C/D winner and has every chance, not won for a while though and prefer the progressive younger horse here.
I was torn between two in the feature sprint but I'm siding with Cotai Glory over Moviesta. A classy two year old, he ran a massive race on reappearance where he was said to 'badly need the run' by his trainer only going down by a neck or so to the reopposing Out Do. He would have come on a bunch for that and it will have him absolutely spot on for this race, a welcome return to the course he was successful at last year in the Molecomb. He still has improvement in him and can take this on route to the Nunthorpe at York later in the season. I'll have a little on the RFC with Moviesta too, this race clearly been a target for a while, C/D winner and has every chance, not won for a while though and prefer the progressive younger horse here.
Seven furlongs looks like the perfect trip for Fadhayyil to continue her progression. She flew home last time at Royal Ascot when only going down by half a length to Dutch Connection who has since ran two superb races in Group company. The Barry Hills inmate had earlier ran a very solid race in the Guineas over a trip that now looks to have been too far, that as well as her bandage unravelling inside the final two furlongs which can't have been much help. She is the least exposed runner in this field and will hopefully get a good pace to aim at. She will be coming late and fast and can gain her first deserved success of the season.
Selections:
15.45 Cotai Glory 11/2
16.55 Fadhayyil 11/4
The double pays at 23/1 so having a few on that too.
Best of luck, hoping for a change in fortune.
THT
Selections:
15.45 Cotai Glory 11/2
16.55 Fadhayyil 11/4
The double pays at 23/1 so having a few on that too.
Best of luck, hoping for a change in fortune.
THT
Tuesday 28 July 2015
Glorious Goodwood Day Two
The opening day was a tough one in the end. The NAP didn't get the best of runs at a crucial stage but to be honest it would have only been place returns at best anyway. The NB was frustratingly beaten by his stablemate at a huge price, though not unbacked late on course. The IWAC ran a solid race coming from the back to finish a never nearer 3rd, SP 6/1 so there were a few having a few on each way, backed down from 12/1. Day two looks even tougher so I'm betting light.
The opening handicap is a devil to solve, partly because so many runners are unexposed over extreme trips like this one. One such horse is Aramist, who before his never dangerous tenth last time out in the Northumberland, was a model of consistency hitting the frame six starts in a row including a win at Hamilton a few runs back. Elidor gave his run at Newmarket a boost yesterday running a big race in a stronger heat off 106 and while this is a highish mark Aramist runs off today the new trip might be the difference. Ben Curtis also gets on well with the horse, he has won four times on him from the nine spins and he himself is having a good season in the saddle. Course form is important at Goodwood but the two course winners in the race don't make much appeal off their career high marks though last year's winner will probably run his race with James Doyle up. Aramist is one of those that always seems to do his best work late on and hopefully he can be picking them off late on coming from the rear - there are a few front runners in here, and if Boite goes off in front like he did last time this could be run to suit. At 22/1 paying 5 places with Ladbrokes, he is worth an each way tickle.
I'm takng a chance on Sunny Spirit in the maiden. Winter Rose looks the one to beat on the strength of her debut 3rd but not many of the others have the experience that this filly does. She ran a quiet race on debut held up in rear and never asked to close - a typical type from the yard. She improved on that run with the extra furlong no doubt a help when coming home well after missing the break and being short of room inside the final furlong. The winner of that race is a very highly regarded inmate of Hugo Palmer's and the way she stuck to her task was encouraging late on. There is no doubt she needs a bit more but it's eyecatching to see that the yard won this race last year with a very similar type. Worth also noting the trainer has a higher strike rate here than he does at any other course in the country and with all that considered, she looks well worth chancing at a generous each way price, providing she can put her experience to good use.
Serena Grae is certainly a chancey one and fitness is to be taken on trust after a near 300-day absence. She'd had enough of her long season when finishing ninth of nine on her final start of last season but was previously in great nick winning four of her previous six. She is a buzzy filly, the main reason behind her headgear and she usually likes to bowl along out in front. She might get an easy lead as many of her rivals are hold up types though the Godolphin runner has made the running the last twice. She looks the type to do some damage in handicaps off her mark in the next few months and if she's come on for her holiday and is ready to go, she should be therabouts at the business end. Also worth mentioning she is the only course winner in the field and her stable are in great nick with last five runners finishing 33121. At 16/1 paying four places, I'll chance her for a small stake.
I never like to back horses that have a tendency to hang and Saucy Minx is obviously a tricky customer judging by the hood/blinkers combination. That said I can't resist a small each way punt at 18/1 for a horse with a course record of 3/7. She was entered in a more valuable handicap and a Group 3 later in the week and connections have clearly had this festival in mind in her last few runs when she's been ridden fairly quietly out the back and it's interesting to see they've kept her in this rather than taking up her other entries. She's off a mark I think she can win off and a strongly run 7f could be exactly what she needs. The talented Kieran Shoemark claims a valuable 5lbs which can only aid her cause and she looks well worth chancing for a yard that rarely seems out of form.
Selections:
14.00 Aramist 22/1 ew (5 places with Ladbrokes) NAP
16.20 Sunny Spirit 14/1 ew NB
16.55 Serena Grae 16/1 ew (4 places) IWAC
17.30 Saucy Minx 18/1 ew (4 places)
It's not a day to go mad on by any means but a few quid on the each way singles and a little each way yankee will keep me interested. Better opportunites to come in the next few days. Enjoy the racing and best of luck if you follow.
THT
The opening handicap is a devil to solve, partly because so many runners are unexposed over extreme trips like this one. One such horse is Aramist, who before his never dangerous tenth last time out in the Northumberland, was a model of consistency hitting the frame six starts in a row including a win at Hamilton a few runs back. Elidor gave his run at Newmarket a boost yesterday running a big race in a stronger heat off 106 and while this is a highish mark Aramist runs off today the new trip might be the difference. Ben Curtis also gets on well with the horse, he has won four times on him from the nine spins and he himself is having a good season in the saddle. Course form is important at Goodwood but the two course winners in the race don't make much appeal off their career high marks though last year's winner will probably run his race with James Doyle up. Aramist is one of those that always seems to do his best work late on and hopefully he can be picking them off late on coming from the rear - there are a few front runners in here, and if Boite goes off in front like he did last time this could be run to suit. At 22/1 paying 5 places with Ladbrokes, he is worth an each way tickle.
I'm takng a chance on Sunny Spirit in the maiden. Winter Rose looks the one to beat on the strength of her debut 3rd but not many of the others have the experience that this filly does. She ran a quiet race on debut held up in rear and never asked to close - a typical type from the yard. She improved on that run with the extra furlong no doubt a help when coming home well after missing the break and being short of room inside the final furlong. The winner of that race is a very highly regarded inmate of Hugo Palmer's and the way she stuck to her task was encouraging late on. There is no doubt she needs a bit more but it's eyecatching to see that the yard won this race last year with a very similar type. Worth also noting the trainer has a higher strike rate here than he does at any other course in the country and with all that considered, she looks well worth chancing at a generous each way price, providing she can put her experience to good use.
Serena Grae is certainly a chancey one and fitness is to be taken on trust after a near 300-day absence. She'd had enough of her long season when finishing ninth of nine on her final start of last season but was previously in great nick winning four of her previous six. She is a buzzy filly, the main reason behind her headgear and she usually likes to bowl along out in front. She might get an easy lead as many of her rivals are hold up types though the Godolphin runner has made the running the last twice. She looks the type to do some damage in handicaps off her mark in the next few months and if she's come on for her holiday and is ready to go, she should be therabouts at the business end. Also worth mentioning she is the only course winner in the field and her stable are in great nick with last five runners finishing 33121. At 16/1 paying four places, I'll chance her for a small stake.
I never like to back horses that have a tendency to hang and Saucy Minx is obviously a tricky customer judging by the hood/blinkers combination. That said I can't resist a small each way punt at 18/1 for a horse with a course record of 3/7. She was entered in a more valuable handicap and a Group 3 later in the week and connections have clearly had this festival in mind in her last few runs when she's been ridden fairly quietly out the back and it's interesting to see they've kept her in this rather than taking up her other entries. She's off a mark I think she can win off and a strongly run 7f could be exactly what she needs. The talented Kieran Shoemark claims a valuable 5lbs which can only aid her cause and she looks well worth chancing for a yard that rarely seems out of form.
Selections:
14.00 Aramist 22/1 ew (5 places with Ladbrokes) NAP
16.20 Sunny Spirit 14/1 ew NB
16.55 Serena Grae 16/1 ew (4 places) IWAC
17.30 Saucy Minx 18/1 ew (4 places)
It's not a day to go mad on by any means but a few quid on the each way singles and a little each way yankee will keep me interested. Better opportunites to come in the next few days. Enjoy the racing and best of luck if you follow.
THT
Monday 27 July 2015
Glorious Goodwood - Day 1
It's finally upon us, my favourite flat racing festival of the year. Royal Ascot is all well and good but it's Glorious Goodwood that I most look forward to each and every year on the level. The unique nature of the track and atmosphere, as well as my own punting success there over the last few years is what makes it special for me. My approach on reading the average race is often unorthodox at best and while usually hit and miss it's that style that seems to work here, a peculiar track with unexpected results the norm. Mark Johnston targets this meeting every single year and I fancy a couple of his on the opening day, hopefully he can get off to a good start.
Long term followers will know that Sennockian Star is a horse I have backed several times this year. 12/1 is a huge price and I can't believe he is that big paying four places despite the fact it's a naturally competitive opening race. He won this race last year off 1lb higher and gets on ever so well with Franny Norton with form figures before last run of 14112. He is a course and distance winner, won't mind the ground having won on it before and for the yard renowned for winners at this festival he is the best bet you will find on day one of the festival for me.
Notarised is the only C/D winner in the field in the 3.45 and this makes him of interest despite only fair odds of 8/1. He beat a fair few of these when winning gamely last time meaning he is up in the handicap for that but won well here two starts before and on that form he is porbably just about the one to beat here. He's won three of his last five and could be allowed his own way up front; it's naturally wide open but he's worth a small each way bet at those odds though not one I'm going mad on.
Top Boy really should have won last time and could be the answer to the 16.20 sprint handicap. The favourite has been ultra progressive dropped to 5f this year and did it nicely last time. That said carrying top weight on a totally different track is enough to put you off especially at the likely skinnyish odds. My alternative is from a yard I rarely back but the horseusually runs his race, despite not quite getting his head in front as much as he should. He won a valuable sprint at York last season and is currently in good form and off a very winnable mark. He enjoys a bit of cut in the ground and if the rider can get the fractions right he can go very close here at a double figure price.
Selections:
14.00 Sennockian Star 12/1 ew (4 places) NAP
15.45 Notarised 8/1 ew NB
16.20 Top Boy 12/1 ew IWAC
Long term followers will know that Sennockian Star is a horse I have backed several times this year. 12/1 is a huge price and I can't believe he is that big paying four places despite the fact it's a naturally competitive opening race. He won this race last year off 1lb higher and gets on ever so well with Franny Norton with form figures before last run of 14112. He is a course and distance winner, won't mind the ground having won on it before and for the yard renowned for winners at this festival he is the best bet you will find on day one of the festival for me.
Notarised is the only C/D winner in the field in the 3.45 and this makes him of interest despite only fair odds of 8/1. He beat a fair few of these when winning gamely last time meaning he is up in the handicap for that but won well here two starts before and on that form he is porbably just about the one to beat here. He's won three of his last five and could be allowed his own way up front; it's naturally wide open but he's worth a small each way bet at those odds though not one I'm going mad on.
Top Boy really should have won last time and could be the answer to the 16.20 sprint handicap. The favourite has been ultra progressive dropped to 5f this year and did it nicely last time. That said carrying top weight on a totally different track is enough to put you off especially at the likely skinnyish odds. My alternative is from a yard I rarely back but the horseusually runs his race, despite not quite getting his head in front as much as he should. He won a valuable sprint at York last season and is currently in good form and off a very winnable mark. He enjoys a bit of cut in the ground and if the rider can get the fractions right he can go very close here at a double figure price.
Selections:
14.00 Sennockian Star 12/1 ew (4 places) NAP
15.45 Notarised 8/1 ew NB
16.20 Top Boy 12/1 ew IWAC
I quite fancy these three, especially the NAP. Good luck if you follow, hopefully it will be a profiitable week again.
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