Tuesday 10 October 2017

NH Season Preview - Fifteen to Follow

With a 25/1 winner kicking off the flat horses to follow, it looked like being a very prosperous summer, but with a few injuries, some very frustrating results and a couple of downright dodgy picks, the LSP didn't really go anywhere and we've finished with a very respectable if not slightly disappointing final total of +20.16pts. That 25/1 success was the biggest priced winner (Danielsflyer) though his season never really kicked on from there. We had thirteen winners at an average SP of just under 11/2 with Lugano and Costa Percy both winning three times but the most frustrating horse I think I've ever kept tabs on was Really Super, trained by Ralph Beckett. I really liked the look of her debut run at two and was very excited to see her out again at three. Form figures this season of 4344232 tells the story; the stuff of nightmares when it comes to a horse to follow - you win some, you lose some.Enable was obviously the highlight of the entire flat season and it was brilliant to hear that sporting connections plan to keep her in training at four.

But it's time to move on now to my preferred code, the jumps. The NH season is now beginning to take center stage and we've already seen some nice prospects over the sea in the shape of Death Duty and Fayonagh. Gordon Elliot has an envious equine battalion to go to war with this season and he's not shy of getting them out early either.

The Cheltenham Festival proved a very profitable one earlier this year and all roads will lead there once again, as is the case every season for nearly every trainer, jockey, owner and racing fan. With that said, not all the horses on this list are Cheltenham horses, some won't be good enough or may have other targets - the point of this list is trying to find horses that will win races throughout the season, hopefully at biggish prices.

Without further ado, here are my fifteen horses to get in your trackers for the season ahead:


Novice Hurdlers:

BLACK OP - 6yo Sandmason gelding trained by Tom George

This facile PTP winner impressed on rules debut when an assertive winner of a Doncaster bumper, defeating subsequent champion bumper third Claimantakinforgan, with the pair pulling clear. It was a taking display, so much so that he started favourite for the Aintree Grade Two bumper, leading a long way out but eventually fading up the run in to finish mid div, beaten about nine lengths. A very respectable run, thrown into the deep end on just his second start under rules. With more patient tactics and another summer on his back, it's very possible that this horse can make a big impact in the novice hurdling division for Tom George this season and for one so lightly raced, it's certain that the best is yet to come.

CHIEF SITTINGBULL - 4yo Indian Haven gelding trained by Neil Mulholland

A big raw horse that would have needed his first runs both physically and mentally but still ran with promise. He looked all at sea on debut around Lingfield on the AW, a course which really wouldn't have suited, but came home nicely in the straight once the penny dropped. His second run was on bottomless ground at Wincanton when running very respectably behind the unbeaten subsequent Newbury bumper winner Sam Brown and subsequent Aintree Grade Two bumper winner Lalor. He was put away after that and has since switched from Emma Lavelle's yard to his current home with Neil Mulholland, which is no bad thing. With a bit of time to have matured physically and mentally, this horse could make up into a smart novice hurdler this season and rates a real dark horse. Chasing will ultimately be his game but he should be able to make an impact over the smaller obstacles this season and I'm looking forward to seeing what new connections can do with him.

COOLANLY - 5yo Flemensfirth gelding trained by Fergal O'Brien

This compact son of Flemensfirth won a maiden point to point at the third time of asking in good style at Durrow in March earlier this year. He was bought by Fergal O'Brien to run for an existing partnership and initial reports are that he has settled in very well at Grange Hill Farm. He's a forward type who has been pleasing his trainer at home and should go close in a bumper at the first time of asking for a yard that excels in that sphere. He holds an entry at Chepstow on Sunday where he can be expected to put up a bold showing.

DEAD RIGHT - 5yo Alflora gelding trained by Neil Mulholland

Unfortunate to run into now 139 rated hurdler De Dollar Man when starting favourite on debut, showing his inexperience but keeping on nicely to the line. Excuse when sent hurdling next time and confirmed debut promise when winning Punchestown bumper in smart fashion, asserting with distinct promise inside the final furlong, firmly putting champion bumper forth Next Destination in his place. Seems versatile ground-wise and rates an exciting prospect sent novice hurdling this season.

ENNISCOFFEY OSCAR - 5yo Oscar gelding trained by Emma Lavelle

Was booked for second in his PTP against subsequent bumper winners Searching For Gold and Truckers Lodge when crashing out at the last, before winning a bumper of his own on the AW at Lingfield. Like so many by Oscar, his willing attitude was very encouraging, fending off two fast-finishing rivals all the way to the line and he duly built on that with a storming late run to get up for second in the Grade Two bumper at Aintree behind Lalor. A stronger pace may well have seen him come out on top, the form is rock-solid and it was a most promising performance for a horse that is bound to have improved greatly for another summer at grass. There is sure to be a lot of excitement about this horse at Bonita Racing Stables and he rates a very good prospect in the novice hurdling division for the season ahead.

GLOBAL STAGE - 6yo Multiplex gelding trained by Fergal O'Brien

Lucky to survive a tired, crashing fall at Warwick back in February, this gorgeous dark bay has been the subject of some very positive schooling reports at home and it's plain to see that we haven't seen the best of him yet. Connections may be eager to exploit a handicap mark of 132 before heading for the Grade One Challow Hurdle at Newbury in December, which has been nominated as a potential target by his trainer. He looks to need soft ground and he should be winning races this season as some of his form (such as his bumper run behind subsequent champion bumper third Claimantakinforgan and his very good run in the Tolworth behind Finian's Oscar) looks very solid.

KALASHNIKOV - 4yo Kalanisi gelding trained by Amy Murphy

This full brother to connections' listed chase winner Kalane ground it out doggedly on debut, displaying a very willing attitude and finding plenty for pressure up the Wetherby home straight to land a bit of a gamble in the process. It was a thoroughly likeable performance - he'll appreciate a stiffer test of stamina in time and will only improve once tackling obstacles. He has reportedly being schooling well at home and rates a decent prospect in the novice hurdling division for his ambitious and talented Newmarket-based handler.

THE DELLERCHECKOUT - 4yo Getaway gelding trained by Paul Nicholls

The latest talking horse at Manor Farm Stables, this forward and mature 4yo by Getaway was purchased for £260k after finishing alone in a five runner PTP in early March. It's very hard to get a handle on the form but reports from home suggest this horse has a sizeable engine and is thriving in his work. Well put together and very straightforward, his professionalism is impressing those close to him and he rates a slightly risky but worthwhile addition to the list for the season ahead, in the hope that he can translate his homework on to the track.

Novice Chasers:

ACTING LASS - 6yo King's Theatre gelding trained by Harry Fry

While the form isn't particularly exciting, the way this horse won on hurdling debut was and he was unlucky to bump into Finian's Oscar conceding 6lbs in a novice hurdle at Hereford four weeks later, though it was encouraging that he was well clear of the third. He signed off with a very respectable run behind Beyond Conceit, Topofthegame and De Dollar Man in a class two at Ascot and was commendably put away soon after, very much with his chasing career in mind. Expected to take advantage of his mark of 135 over hurdles before embarking on his chasing career, this gelding by King's Theatre rates a decent prospect over the larger obstacles this season for the ever-burgeoning Harry Fry operation.

BIG RIVER - 7yo Milan gelding trained by Lucinda Russell

For me this is one of the most exciting staying prospects in training and it would probably be hard to find anyone at Arlary House Stables who disagrees. He has thrived since upped in trip, winning as he liked in super style on his final run last season, hammering the smart Seeyouatmidnight - a really taking performance. He travels well through his races and goes on any ground, though he has shown a liking for a real slog in the heavy stuff. As he was built for chasing, being able to reach a mark of 144 over hurdles is very noteworthy. With One For Arthur ruled out for the year, Big River can lead the way for the Lucinda Russell team this season and blossom into a serious contender for the RSA chase come March, though he looks every inch a thorough stayer and is likely to make up into a credible Grand National contender in seasons to come. I'm very excited by this lad.

GIVEMEACOPPER - 7yo Presenting gelding trained by Paul Nicholls

Fences will very much be the making of this promising staying prospect and he has very much been brought along with his chasing career in mind, as only three outings over hurdles last season would suggest. He ran green on his hurdling debut when odds on, but still pulled clear to win comfortably over nearly three miles on soft Exeter ground. Heavily backed into 5/4fav when upped to Grade Two company next time out, he ran very disappointingly, though he had one or two excuses and could easily be forgiven that run. He signed off on a good note with a battling but ultimately assertive victory over Neptune forth Burbank at Ayr, shaping like a thorough stayer in the making and this well regarded son of Presenting can make his presence felt in the novice staying division this season, with the four-miler at the festival very likely to be the season's main target.

SUTTON PLACE - 6yo Mahler gelding trained by Gordon Elliott

With a small setback causing a delayed seasonal reappearance, novice chasing plans were shelved for this Mahler gelding last season but it may turn out to be a blessing in disguise, as being another year older and wiser can only be to his advantage. Lightly raced for his age, it's very likely that we are yet to see what this horse is fully be capable of, especially now tacking the larger obstacles. A bad knock on his final run of the season at Punchestown had connections fearing the worst, but thankfully he's fully recovered and is now back in full work, reportedly in great order at home. He relishes soft ground and should stay three miles over fences in time, though has the speed for two and a half. He's a Listed, Grade Three and dual Grade Two winner and it's surely a matter of time before he adds a Grade One to his CV. This horse is prominent in the betting for the JLT and RSA at the festival and he has the look of a credible Gold Cup contender in seasons to come.

TOPOFTHEGAME - 5yo Flemensfirth gelding trained by Paul Nicholls

Very possibly the biggest horse in training, this typically large son of Flemensfirth is a real giant and he has a sizeable engine to boot. He was in a different league to the smart No Hassle Hoff in his sole PTP before winning on hurdling debut at Ascot despite idling very badly and almost snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. He travelled like much the best horse and his inexperience showed in the closing stages as he hit the front a long way out and just got lonely on the run-in. He again travelled strongly when a respectable forth in the Grade Two Neptune trial, holding every chance before blundering the last and outpaced thereafter, before signing off with a neck second back at Ascot, once again travelling with a touch of class but just outpaced close home, splitting Beyond Conceit and De Dollar Man. He still looked clumsy, raw and way off the finished article, so to run to such a good level of form over hurdles was most encouraging. With the switch to fences and another summer filling out his huge frame, he can be expected to reach the top level this year, with three miles likely proving his optimum trip. It looks a strong staying novice chasing division this year and this lad may just be the best of the bunch, with the RSA looking firmly on the agenda come March, all being well.

Handicappers to follow:

MELROSE BOY - 5yo Saint Des Saints gelding trained by Harry Fry

The third and final horse to have remained on the list from last season is Melrose Boy, despite his frustrating form figures of 323 last time around. His two-length third behind Mount Mews (now rated 145) at Wetherby, his second place behind River Wylde (now rated 144) at Ludlow and his beating of Zero Grand (now rated 134) at Uttoxeter makes him look especially well treated off 123. He had a tendency to take a keen hold in his races and also showed a tendency to slightly hang left, but I think it's fair to put that down to his immaturity, both mentally and physically. Being put away early in January further supports the argument and I'm left with the distinct impression that this horse could be very well handicapped, with his trainer giving him ample opportunity to grow and strengthen up over the spring and summer. He'll make a chaser later on down the line, but handicap hurdling is on the agenda this season and it will be disappointing if he can't prove to be a good bit ahead of his mark and win a race or two this season.

ROBINTHEAULAD - 6yo Robin Des Champs gelding trained by Sandy Thomson

A well backed winner on his rules debut in a Carlisle bumper, this horse ran respectably in three novice hurdles and a decent class three handicap last season, ending the year on a rating of 106 which looks very exploitable. Despite that, connections are wasting no time in sending him novice chasing and it was all going smoothly on his debut over fences last week, until a crashing fall four out when travelling comfortably on the heels of the 23lbs superior 1/5fav. He is reportedly none the worse for his fall and it's apparent that he has been brought along steadily with chasing in mind. He'll need a trip but should be able to win a few novice races up north before hopefully making a further impression in handicap chases once he's given a mark over fences. I would be very surprised if connections don't find a staying handicap hurdle to take advantage of a very lenient looking mark over the smaller obstacles at some point this season as well and he should reward his trainer's patience and conservative approach with a prosperous campaign.


The List:

Acting Lass - 1
*Big River - 1P
Black Op - 4
Chief Sitting Bull - 9
Coolanly - 12
Dead Right
Enniscoffey Oscar - 4731
*Givemeacopper - U1
Global Stage - 1
Kalashnikov - 11
Melrose Boy - 1
Robintheaulad - FF
Sutton Place
The Dellercheckout - 62
*Topofthegame - F

* = Must Follow (75% SR last season)


Form: 4U171F119F6F3111P14122

Must Follow Form: U1F1P


Winners:

Big River 11/5
Global Stage 2/5
Coolanly 5/2
Kalashnikov 4/1
Givemeacopper 1/3
Melrose Boy 11/4
Acting Lass Evs
Ennicoffey Oscar 6/4
Kalashnikov 4/7


LSP: +2.43pts