After making the laughably well handicapped Lastkingofscotland an each way maxbet last time, he flew home for 3rd from a bad draw and being badly hampered at the start for good place profit. This time LKOS will win, let me tell you.
Connor Dore has been handicapping his horses all summer and autumn as we all know by now. Hayley Turner returns to the saddle on the 7yo for the first time since the spring. A timely return too as unbelievably the horse has been dropped another 2lb by the handicapper since his last run. The old boy can now run off 57. He has never been rated this low, a career low mark for him on Friday.
Back over 7f at Wolves is where he wants to be. He has won twice over C and D and this was the course and distance where he took advantage of his tumbling mark under George Baker just under a year ago. He has a decent draw too, and the only danger could be the other Connor Dore runner but you get the impression this race is made for LKOS and I am not having him beat one little bit.
Come on Hayley, send him out front, and bloody well stay there.
Max Bet:
18.25 Lastkingofscotland @ 5/1
Good Luck all.
THT
Thursday 12 December 2013
Wednesday 11 December 2013
Thursday 12th December
Plot, plotjob, non-trier, blatant cheating. We all have our own names we use. A horse tomorrow fits perfectly into this category. Jim Best is hardly a stranger to the notorious plot job. Remember Planetoid? Not quite the perfect example but let's look at the stats.
Rated 85 on the flat - a perfectly decent handicapper. Two flat wins from eight races, not bad at all! Then Jim Best took over training duties from David Lanigan.
Race 1 (maiden): 13/15 - Beaten 138 lengths at 9/1
Race 2 (maiden): 8/13 - Beaten 41 lengths at 33/1
Race 3 (novice): 9/11 - Beaten 200 lengths at 66/1
Race 4 (novice): Fell at 50/1
Race 5 (novice): 7/8 - Beaten 111 lengths at 66/1
Race 6 (novice): 10/11 - Beaten 68 lengths at 100/1.
At this stage, the future didn't look bright over obstacles for the son of Galileo. Oh, wait a minute, let's have a go in handicap company! Given a mark of 85 (incidentally the same as flat mark) Planetoid then made is handicap debut in 0-95 company.
Race 7: (handicap): 1/11 - Won by 5 lengths eased down at 5/6.
Hmm.
The less said about it the better. Or is it? Is it time we, the racing fan, actually did something about this blatant deception and playing of the 'system.' This got me thinking, should we as the punter, really be that concerned? Plenty got on the gamble that day. Don't remember the opening price but it was absolutely hammered in. Surely the concern is more for the bookmakers, not to mention the BHA who we all know by now are generally totally useless. The thing that gets me is how blatantly obvious trainers like Jim Best (though he is certainly not alone) manipulate the system. He knows he can do it, and the BHA won't do a thing. Yes the stewards will 'investigate' the horse's improved form and make their notes and scribble down their ramblings and promise to look into previous race footage. Has anyone ever heard of this resulting in anything? No, me neither. They don't seem to care, or perhaps they have better things to do, like sorting out the ridiculously low levels of prize money, oh wait a minute, they aren't doing that either. What are they doing?! Lol.
The fact Planetoid was given the same mark over jumps as on the flat was laughable anyway, but the BHA took their time and smelt a rat. Usually, like tomorrow's huge gamble, a horse is given a mark after three runs. Anyway, the handicapper was made to look like a total fool and the rest is history. Let's look at tomorrow's example, which is such a perfect example of the non-trier. (unless Ramona Chase really is diabolical over fences of course!)
Race 1 (novice): 12/12 - Beaten 81 lengths at 66/1.
Race 2 (maiden): 14/15 - Beaten 126 lengths at 100/1.
Race 3 (maiden): 12/15 - Beaten 90 lengths at 100/1.
Race 4 (handicap) ???
Ramona Chase was a perfectly decent flat horse and is bred to stay well. He predominantly raced between 10-12f and is related to hurdle winners. Actually quite nicely bred and cost plenty of money. He is rated around 84-85 on the flat. Judged on his first three efforts over hurdles, he has been given one of the most laughable marks I have ever seen in racing. 59. 59?! For a horse rated 25lbs or so better on the flat?! A 85 rated flat horse usually ends up being a 110-130 rated horse over jumps as a rough guide. It's worse than laughable that Ramona Chase is allowed to run off 59 tomorrow, miles out the handicap in 0-95 company. The top rated horse in this race was a career best 70 on the flat, and runs off 95 tomorrow carrying top weight. Ramona Chase 85 on flat, 59 tomorrow carrying bottom weight. Puts that right into perspective. Now can you see why it has been hammered into 7/2 from 16/1 in just a few hours? Buying money, and lots of it if you got on early.
The horse is so well in that I honestly believe it could lap them, it's ridiculous, it's worse than ridiculous. But again it raises the question should we care?
While it does absolutely nothing for the integrity of the sport, perhaps it might take such a ridiculous case such as this for the BHA to introduce some new rules and guidelines. One could be that the handicapper refuses to assess a horse if beaten more than, say 25 lengths? For a horse to establish a mark, it must finish within 25L of the winner 3 times. Sounds like a good idea to me. At least then you know they are trying, a bit anyway.
Oh by the way, Mattie Batchelor was investigated and then banned for 10 days for one of his non-trying rides on RC. Not his fault of course, we all know jockeys all do what they are told.
I wonder what Jim Best's representative will say tomorrow when he is inevitably called into the stewards room at approximately 14.50. He will certainly be earning his bacon anyway. One excuse they might use is the horse 'summered well and was refreshed from the break.' RC been off since the Spring, we will see anyway. The funniest one's are 'could offer no explanation to the horse's improved form.' Ha!
One thing that is becoming more fashionable is being a non-trier on handicap debut. This (theoretically of course) makes the handicapper feel he has not been had, and you never know might even drop another pound or two! This can also enable a bigger price for connections the next time when the horse subsequently destroys the dismal field on the bridle and they have lumped on at an early double figure price. That is always the danger with going in too heavily on these gambles. But let's be honest, we all know Ramona Chase isn't a 59 animal, except the handicapper of course! Lol. The horse has an entry in another four days time, which suggest a quick double is very much on the cards, so this does have all the makings of a massive plotjob. Convenient that the handicapper doesn't act till Tuesday which will enable the follow up under no penalty ;-) Mr Best does know the time of day ha, absolute classic plot. It's all so terribly obvious isn't it? Will be rated a hundred and something this time next week anyway under a massive double penalty.
While it is blatant deception, trainer's will continue to exploit loopholes if the BHA keep their outdated rules and regulations. Me personally, I am not bothered by it one bit, from a punter's point of view. You can spot these a mile off, and if you get your money on early, you will be laughing too at the handicapper/BHA's expense.
Had been waiting for this horse for some time, hence why I managed to get on as soon as Bet 365 made the error of pricing the animal at 14/1 (thankyou very much) The price lasted virtually seconds, but I snuck on for decent money and am fully expecting to be a few hundred pound richer come this time tomorrow. At 7/2, the horse is still overpriced, then again any price is big when it looks as much of a banker as this one. As I say though, maybe it isn't his day tomorrow, maybe the horse falls etc etc. Things can go wrong, but you can guarantee one thing; the horse will be trying tomorrow!
Thanks for reading and enjoy watching RC win by half the track as Jim Best cracks a cheeky smile, knowing he has had one over on the BHA and the handicapper, once again. Here's to many more Jim!
THT
Rated 85 on the flat - a perfectly decent handicapper. Two flat wins from eight races, not bad at all! Then Jim Best took over training duties from David Lanigan.
Race 1 (maiden): 13/15 - Beaten 138 lengths at 9/1
Race 2 (maiden): 8/13 - Beaten 41 lengths at 33/1
Race 3 (novice): 9/11 - Beaten 200 lengths at 66/1
Race 4 (novice): Fell at 50/1
Race 5 (novice): 7/8 - Beaten 111 lengths at 66/1
Race 6 (novice): 10/11 - Beaten 68 lengths at 100/1.
At this stage, the future didn't look bright over obstacles for the son of Galileo. Oh, wait a minute, let's have a go in handicap company! Given a mark of 85 (incidentally the same as flat mark) Planetoid then made is handicap debut in 0-95 company.
Race 7: (handicap): 1/11 - Won by 5 lengths eased down at 5/6.
Hmm.
The less said about it the better. Or is it? Is it time we, the racing fan, actually did something about this blatant deception and playing of the 'system.' This got me thinking, should we as the punter, really be that concerned? Plenty got on the gamble that day. Don't remember the opening price but it was absolutely hammered in. Surely the concern is more for the bookmakers, not to mention the BHA who we all know by now are generally totally useless. The thing that gets me is how blatantly obvious trainers like Jim Best (though he is certainly not alone) manipulate the system. He knows he can do it, and the BHA won't do a thing. Yes the stewards will 'investigate' the horse's improved form and make their notes and scribble down their ramblings and promise to look into previous race footage. Has anyone ever heard of this resulting in anything? No, me neither. They don't seem to care, or perhaps they have better things to do, like sorting out the ridiculously low levels of prize money, oh wait a minute, they aren't doing that either. What are they doing?! Lol.
The fact Planetoid was given the same mark over jumps as on the flat was laughable anyway, but the BHA took their time and smelt a rat. Usually, like tomorrow's huge gamble, a horse is given a mark after three runs. Anyway, the handicapper was made to look like a total fool and the rest is history. Let's look at tomorrow's example, which is such a perfect example of the non-trier. (unless Ramona Chase really is diabolical over fences of course!)
Race 1 (novice): 12/12 - Beaten 81 lengths at 66/1.
Race 2 (maiden): 14/15 - Beaten 126 lengths at 100/1.
Race 3 (maiden): 12/15 - Beaten 90 lengths at 100/1.
Race 4 (handicap) ???
Ramona Chase was a perfectly decent flat horse and is bred to stay well. He predominantly raced between 10-12f and is related to hurdle winners. Actually quite nicely bred and cost plenty of money. He is rated around 84-85 on the flat. Judged on his first three efforts over hurdles, he has been given one of the most laughable marks I have ever seen in racing. 59. 59?! For a horse rated 25lbs or so better on the flat?! A 85 rated flat horse usually ends up being a 110-130 rated horse over jumps as a rough guide. It's worse than laughable that Ramona Chase is allowed to run off 59 tomorrow, miles out the handicap in 0-95 company. The top rated horse in this race was a career best 70 on the flat, and runs off 95 tomorrow carrying top weight. Ramona Chase 85 on flat, 59 tomorrow carrying bottom weight. Puts that right into perspective. Now can you see why it has been hammered into 7/2 from 16/1 in just a few hours? Buying money, and lots of it if you got on early.
The horse is so well in that I honestly believe it could lap them, it's ridiculous, it's worse than ridiculous. But again it raises the question should we care?
While it does absolutely nothing for the integrity of the sport, perhaps it might take such a ridiculous case such as this for the BHA to introduce some new rules and guidelines. One could be that the handicapper refuses to assess a horse if beaten more than, say 25 lengths? For a horse to establish a mark, it must finish within 25L of the winner 3 times. Sounds like a good idea to me. At least then you know they are trying, a bit anyway.
Oh by the way, Mattie Batchelor was investigated and then banned for 10 days for one of his non-trying rides on RC. Not his fault of course, we all know jockeys all do what they are told.
I wonder what Jim Best's representative will say tomorrow when he is inevitably called into the stewards room at approximately 14.50. He will certainly be earning his bacon anyway. One excuse they might use is the horse 'summered well and was refreshed from the break.' RC been off since the Spring, we will see anyway. The funniest one's are 'could offer no explanation to the horse's improved form.' Ha!
One thing that is becoming more fashionable is being a non-trier on handicap debut. This (theoretically of course) makes the handicapper feel he has not been had, and you never know might even drop another pound or two! This can also enable a bigger price for connections the next time when the horse subsequently destroys the dismal field on the bridle and they have lumped on at an early double figure price. That is always the danger with going in too heavily on these gambles. But let's be honest, we all know Ramona Chase isn't a 59 animal, except the handicapper of course! Lol. The horse has an entry in another four days time, which suggest a quick double is very much on the cards, so this does have all the makings of a massive plotjob. Convenient that the handicapper doesn't act till Tuesday which will enable the follow up under no penalty ;-) Mr Best does know the time of day ha, absolute classic plot. It's all so terribly obvious isn't it? Will be rated a hundred and something this time next week anyway under a massive double penalty.
While it is blatant deception, trainer's will continue to exploit loopholes if the BHA keep their outdated rules and regulations. Me personally, I am not bothered by it one bit, from a punter's point of view. You can spot these a mile off, and if you get your money on early, you will be laughing too at the handicapper/BHA's expense.
Had been waiting for this horse for some time, hence why I managed to get on as soon as Bet 365 made the error of pricing the animal at 14/1 (thankyou very much) The price lasted virtually seconds, but I snuck on for decent money and am fully expecting to be a few hundred pound richer come this time tomorrow. At 7/2, the horse is still overpriced, then again any price is big when it looks as much of a banker as this one. As I say though, maybe it isn't his day tomorrow, maybe the horse falls etc etc. Things can go wrong, but you can guarantee one thing; the horse will be trying tomorrow!
Thanks for reading and enjoy watching RC win by half the track as Jim Best cracks a cheeky smile, knowing he has had one over on the BHA and the handicapper, once again. Here's to many more Jim!
THT
Sunday 8 December 2013
Monday 9th December
Got a few I like tomorrow and usually do well on Monday's for some reason so very hopeful. They are all chancey and the nature of the runners means they will either come first or last I think. Anyway, will keep it short and sweet.
Divers is a lovely horse. I just don't think he likes chasing anymore. The lovely grey is back over hurdles today on only his second run for Donald McCain which I think will be the key to a return to form. The Cheltenham Festival race winner has run over hurdles only once this year where he finished 3rd over C and D behind Paul Nicholls' Salubrious who is now rated 153. Despite the rest of the competition looking weak that day, Divers today drops down in class into shallower waters and can run off 123, his lowest mark since late 2010. He has been hammered and pulled up in his three chases since his good hurdles run but he has won over this course and distance before. Also, his last run was after a 7 month break, so he was entitled to need the outing. 12/1 is a great price for an animal of his class and is a good ew fancy, despite some decent opposition.
Uprise drops down in class after showing a return to form last time, finishing 3rd at Kempton in a slightly better race. Handicapper has given him another crack off this mark and the Pivotal gelding should take advantage. He has only won one race; his last start for Michael Stoute at odds on last summer off a mark of 74. Since switching yards the horse has tumbled down the weights and now looks ready to strike off 63 in an uncompetitive race. This will be the first time the horse has run in a Class 6 race. Looks a very generous price at 8/1 and looks nailed on for a place at least imo.
Marciano is a bit of an unknown and is exactly why I mentioned him on Twitter before his last run where he ran a big race considering his odds. SP ended up being a bit shorter at about 25/1 but he looked the winner at one point before just not quite finding enough in the closing stages. He travelled very well and the step back to 6f is absolutely ideal. George Fenton who finished a neck in front of Marciano has since come out and won and with the step back in trip and run under his belt, the bay gelding by Pivotal (another one!) can outrun his huge price in what looks a fairly competitive event. The danger could be the Alan Bailey maiden back from break. Winston won on last two Bailey horses, was scheduled to ride Equitania too the other day but missed ride which would have made it last 3/3! (horse won - annoyingly as was in the tracker and didn't back!!)
Queen Aggie in the Wolves finale is a very interesting candidate. I backed a few times in summer as was so well handicapped but gave up (thankfully as she still hasnt won since!) However I am going back in today. She won her first two starts very impressively and promised to be something special beating some top horses in her early days. However since her Chester win over a year ago, things have gone backward and from once running off 94 in a listed event, she can today run off 72 in a Class 5 handicap. This horse is only three years old by the way. So why is she going to win this time? Well, she ran a very nice race last time on her first ever run over a mile. (been campaigned at 5-7f) She ran on really well late on last time (in a better race) and over the extended mile at Wolverhampton this time, being unexposed at 1m+, she can get back to winning ways off the same mark in this, the weakest handicap she has ever contested. One final penny for your thoughts. Historic form means next to nothing but as a matter of interest she once finished just a length behind Oaks heroine Talent...
14.20 Divers 12/1 e/w
15.30 Uprise 8/1 e/w
15.40 Marciano 14/1 e/w
17.10 Queen Aggie 9/1 ew
Backed all as singles, more on the win doubles and a 50p e/w Lucky 15 paying £13769 at best prices.
Am confident in all of them, if you pushed me for a NAP I would say the filly. In terms of value, Marciano is massively overpriced, but they are all far bigger that they ought to be, in my opinion at least!
Good Luck if you play, as I said, all quite chancey and think will either finish first or last, but if on a going day and we get a bit of luck, could be a day to remember.
**(Also backed Munsarim as backed last time and interesting turned out so quickly - didn't see it was running till looked through Twitter! @PTMAHON made it a mexbet too which is always a good thing! Runs in the 16.40 Wolves - 16/1 e/w single)**
THT
Divers is a lovely horse. I just don't think he likes chasing anymore. The lovely grey is back over hurdles today on only his second run for Donald McCain which I think will be the key to a return to form. The Cheltenham Festival race winner has run over hurdles only once this year where he finished 3rd over C and D behind Paul Nicholls' Salubrious who is now rated 153. Despite the rest of the competition looking weak that day, Divers today drops down in class into shallower waters and can run off 123, his lowest mark since late 2010. He has been hammered and pulled up in his three chases since his good hurdles run but he has won over this course and distance before. Also, his last run was after a 7 month break, so he was entitled to need the outing. 12/1 is a great price for an animal of his class and is a good ew fancy, despite some decent opposition.
Uprise drops down in class after showing a return to form last time, finishing 3rd at Kempton in a slightly better race. Handicapper has given him another crack off this mark and the Pivotal gelding should take advantage. He has only won one race; his last start for Michael Stoute at odds on last summer off a mark of 74. Since switching yards the horse has tumbled down the weights and now looks ready to strike off 63 in an uncompetitive race. This will be the first time the horse has run in a Class 6 race. Looks a very generous price at 8/1 and looks nailed on for a place at least imo.
Marciano is a bit of an unknown and is exactly why I mentioned him on Twitter before his last run where he ran a big race considering his odds. SP ended up being a bit shorter at about 25/1 but he looked the winner at one point before just not quite finding enough in the closing stages. He travelled very well and the step back to 6f is absolutely ideal. George Fenton who finished a neck in front of Marciano has since come out and won and with the step back in trip and run under his belt, the bay gelding by Pivotal (another one!) can outrun his huge price in what looks a fairly competitive event. The danger could be the Alan Bailey maiden back from break. Winston won on last two Bailey horses, was scheduled to ride Equitania too the other day but missed ride which would have made it last 3/3! (horse won - annoyingly as was in the tracker and didn't back!!)
Queen Aggie in the Wolves finale is a very interesting candidate. I backed a few times in summer as was so well handicapped but gave up (thankfully as she still hasnt won since!) However I am going back in today. She won her first two starts very impressively and promised to be something special beating some top horses in her early days. However since her Chester win over a year ago, things have gone backward and from once running off 94 in a listed event, she can today run off 72 in a Class 5 handicap. This horse is only three years old by the way. So why is she going to win this time? Well, she ran a very nice race last time on her first ever run over a mile. (been campaigned at 5-7f) She ran on really well late on last time (in a better race) and over the extended mile at Wolverhampton this time, being unexposed at 1m+, she can get back to winning ways off the same mark in this, the weakest handicap she has ever contested. One final penny for your thoughts. Historic form means next to nothing but as a matter of interest she once finished just a length behind Oaks heroine Talent...
14.20 Divers 12/1 e/w
15.30 Uprise 8/1 e/w
15.40 Marciano 14/1 e/w
17.10 Queen Aggie 9/1 ew
Backed all as singles, more on the win doubles and a 50p e/w Lucky 15 paying £13769 at best prices.
Am confident in all of them, if you pushed me for a NAP I would say the filly. In terms of value, Marciano is massively overpriced, but they are all far bigger that they ought to be, in my opinion at least!
Good Luck if you play, as I said, all quite chancey and think will either finish first or last, but if on a going day and we get a bit of luck, could be a day to remember.
**(Also backed Munsarim as backed last time and interesting turned out so quickly - didn't see it was running till looked through Twitter! @PTMAHON made it a mexbet too which is always a good thing! Runs in the 16.40 Wolves - 16/1 e/w single)**
THT
Tuesday 3 December 2013
Wednesday 4th December
Morning/Afternoon all and thanks for taking the time out your busy days to have a read of the blog. Not done it in ages but as I tweeted on Tuesday afternoon I have a maxbet for Wednesday which doesn't happen very often at all. Lots of people throw the term around loosely, usually on some 8/13 shot that ends up getting beat. Hell I remember someone claimed he had inside knowledge that a race was fixed for a 10/11 shot to win (Hillstar) and he said some ridiculous things like stick your house on it, can't be beaten etc etc. Alas, Hillstar was beaten and his twitter days were over.
A maxbet doesn't mean empty your bank account, it doesn't mean put your life savings on and it doesn't mean the horse will definitely win. All it means is the biggest amount you would be prepared to stake (with the possibility of losing) on something to happen. For some it would be £10, for others it could be £100.
The good thing about Wednesday's maxbet is that the price will be backable ew. Therefore, you will be in profit even if it places which I expect at worse. I really think the horse will win and everything is pointing to a massive run. As I say, I don't often do these but really very confident.
Anyway enough of the rambling. The horse in question is the grand old servant, Lastkingofscotland. He has raced one hundred times, finishing in the top three on forty of those occasions and can make it his fourteenth career victory on Wednesday. Here's why.
The Horse:
Firstly, the horse is now rated 59. This is his lowest ever rating by 4lb. He is not a 59 animal, we all know that. With six wins off marks in the seventies, his highest being 75 in handicap company, he is clearly very well handicapped on Wednesday. That win off 75 was this year, so don't give me the 'regressive' bull crap. Won in 0-75 company very easily (today 0-60) and that was his last win. That last win was over today's course and distance. Returned to the scene of his last win, he can take advantage of his lowly mark.
Worth noting that two runs ago LKOS was hampered badly inside the final furlong. I'm not saying he would have won, course I'm not, as the jockey was told not to win that day. Pushed him along for about five strides and looked like he got himself into trouble in the first instance anyway. But there was hope in this run, especially as it was over wrong trip. Next time he was sent to the front where he should be, though the early effort to get over from the wide draw seemed to tell in the final furlong when he was headed and then it was over. There was significant market support last time by the way, suggesting his turn is near.
The Trainer:
We have been waiting for some time for the Connor Dore Xmas fund to get underway as pretty much all his horses are now so ridiculously well handicapped it's not funny. Or perhaps he can't train any more, who knows ha. There have been glimmers recently, with plenty of 2's 3's and 4's in the formbook and I can just imagine him climbing some sort of high tower at his yard, then playing a motivational warcry on some sort of brass instrument to his workforce and commanding that all handbrakes be released on all his horses. Okay maybe I am going slightly mad but when one goes in they will all follow and might be an idea to have a second look at his runners throughout the festive period.
My Worries:
There are two things which worry me and if the horse wasn't an each way price then I likely wouldn't be making this a max bet. Firstly, the jockey booking. Whether Dore wants to give his apprentice a winner for all his hard work I don't know, but he is usually a trainer who gets a 'proper jockey' on his plots. That said on this particular horse he has never really had an apprentice riding for so many races. (apprentice on board 5 of last 6 runs) So this is only a slight concern, though I would be happier to see a Luke Morris or an Adam Kirby on board.
The main issue is the draw. Being predominantly a front runner, the draw in 8 is unfavourable. That first right turn comes pretty quickly at Kempton and both jockey and horse (who usually breaks very smartly may I add) need to be alert. If he doesn't get to the front, it could be game over for win purposes, though that said he has been held up before when he has won (well) and he is so well handicapped it might not matter tactically, so all hope is certainly not lost, though as I say it is a slight concern.
Oh and another thing I have started to notice. These plotjobs on the AW always seem to be in the last race of the day. A few with Milton Bradley recently, Squance's Diplomatic (a great horse!) and other such gambling stables have come to my attention. Very likely just coincidence, but found it interesting nonetheless and LKOS is in the final race on Wednesday. He was also in the final race the last time he won here and the time before, though as I say, likely means F all.
LKOS will win soon, and could probably win by half the track tomorrow if he was fully let go. Can't remember the last time he ran in such a weak race but the dangers would likely be the 3yo that Crowley is on maybe (?) the two at the bottom of the hcap who were both 2nd last time could go well again I suppose but mainly Dishy Guru who, like LKOS is very well hcapped and I have a coverbet on that one as I have backed that one before, including last time when showed a glimmer on return from a break.
Please don't bet stupidly, a horse is a horse at the end of the day, and the trainer might still be waiting to release the handbrake. If not tomorrow, next time, if not next time, time after but he will win very soon at a price, and then probably rack up a hattrick or more as he is so well in on old (this year's) form. Good Luck all!
19.20 Kempton Lastkingofscotland @12/1
Also had a coverbet and the rfc on Dishy Guru @ 10/1 e/w.
THT
A maxbet doesn't mean empty your bank account, it doesn't mean put your life savings on and it doesn't mean the horse will definitely win. All it means is the biggest amount you would be prepared to stake (with the possibility of losing) on something to happen. For some it would be £10, for others it could be £100.
The good thing about Wednesday's maxbet is that the price will be backable ew. Therefore, you will be in profit even if it places which I expect at worse. I really think the horse will win and everything is pointing to a massive run. As I say, I don't often do these but really very confident.
Anyway enough of the rambling. The horse in question is the grand old servant, Lastkingofscotland. He has raced one hundred times, finishing in the top three on forty of those occasions and can make it his fourteenth career victory on Wednesday. Here's why.
The Horse:
Firstly, the horse is now rated 59. This is his lowest ever rating by 4lb. He is not a 59 animal, we all know that. With six wins off marks in the seventies, his highest being 75 in handicap company, he is clearly very well handicapped on Wednesday. That win off 75 was this year, so don't give me the 'regressive' bull crap. Won in 0-75 company very easily (today 0-60) and that was his last win. That last win was over today's course and distance. Returned to the scene of his last win, he can take advantage of his lowly mark.
Worth noting that two runs ago LKOS was hampered badly inside the final furlong. I'm not saying he would have won, course I'm not, as the jockey was told not to win that day. Pushed him along for about five strides and looked like he got himself into trouble in the first instance anyway. But there was hope in this run, especially as it was over wrong trip. Next time he was sent to the front where he should be, though the early effort to get over from the wide draw seemed to tell in the final furlong when he was headed and then it was over. There was significant market support last time by the way, suggesting his turn is near.
The Trainer:
We have been waiting for some time for the Connor Dore Xmas fund to get underway as pretty much all his horses are now so ridiculously well handicapped it's not funny. Or perhaps he can't train any more, who knows ha. There have been glimmers recently, with plenty of 2's 3's and 4's in the formbook and I can just imagine him climbing some sort of high tower at his yard, then playing a motivational warcry on some sort of brass instrument to his workforce and commanding that all handbrakes be released on all his horses. Okay maybe I am going slightly mad but when one goes in they will all follow and might be an idea to have a second look at his runners throughout the festive period.
My Worries:
There are two things which worry me and if the horse wasn't an each way price then I likely wouldn't be making this a max bet. Firstly, the jockey booking. Whether Dore wants to give his apprentice a winner for all his hard work I don't know, but he is usually a trainer who gets a 'proper jockey' on his plots. That said on this particular horse he has never really had an apprentice riding for so many races. (apprentice on board 5 of last 6 runs) So this is only a slight concern, though I would be happier to see a Luke Morris or an Adam Kirby on board.
The main issue is the draw. Being predominantly a front runner, the draw in 8 is unfavourable. That first right turn comes pretty quickly at Kempton and both jockey and horse (who usually breaks very smartly may I add) need to be alert. If he doesn't get to the front, it could be game over for win purposes, though that said he has been held up before when he has won (well) and he is so well handicapped it might not matter tactically, so all hope is certainly not lost, though as I say it is a slight concern.
Oh and another thing I have started to notice. These plotjobs on the AW always seem to be in the last race of the day. A few with Milton Bradley recently, Squance's Diplomatic (a great horse!) and other such gambling stables have come to my attention. Very likely just coincidence, but found it interesting nonetheless and LKOS is in the final race on Wednesday. He was also in the final race the last time he won here and the time before, though as I say, likely means F all.
LKOS will win soon, and could probably win by half the track tomorrow if he was fully let go. Can't remember the last time he ran in such a weak race but the dangers would likely be the 3yo that Crowley is on maybe (?) the two at the bottom of the hcap who were both 2nd last time could go well again I suppose but mainly Dishy Guru who, like LKOS is very well hcapped and I have a coverbet on that one as I have backed that one before, including last time when showed a glimmer on return from a break.
Please don't bet stupidly, a horse is a horse at the end of the day, and the trainer might still be waiting to release the handbrake. If not tomorrow, next time, if not next time, time after but he will win very soon at a price, and then probably rack up a hattrick or more as he is so well in on old (this year's) form. Good Luck all!
19.20 Kempton Lastkingofscotland @12/1
Also had a coverbet and the rfc on Dishy Guru @ 10/1 e/w.
THT
Tuesday 24 September 2013
Wednesday 25th September
Wanted to put my reasons up for today's picks as I have a week off from work and have the time to write the blog again! Been on a good run of late with 25/1 winner on Saturday followed by a 12/1 winner yesterday amongst plenty of shorter priced winners and longshots placing. Think I have only ever done a maxbet once before and I was going to do one today but there are one or two tiny question marks so it isn't a maxbet but it is my NAP at a very good price.
Goodwood 16.50 - Apricot Sky 15/2 NAP
Apricot Sky is my best bet of the day for Henry Candy and Dane O'Neill. The chestnut gelding has been put away for most of the summer after his game win from a 1/8 shot back in May. The horse in question was a Noseda colt by the name of Ian's Dream. The horse opened at 2/11 that day after finishing a length behind Reckless Abandon the previous race which happened to be the Group 2 Norfolk Stakes. Punters weren't shy next time and the horse was backed into 1/10 at one point before slightly easing back out to an SP of 1/8. Ian's Dream was beaten again at odds on next time then went on to win a maiden at odds on as well as running in Group 3 Jersey Stakes last time out though not very well and was then given a well deserved break and hasn't been seen since. The horse is rated in the high 80's but was once rated 105 and could be a decent proposition for the Noseda yard next season.
Apricot Sky and Ian's Dream pulled well clear from the rest of the field last time, some seven or eight lengths. The key piece of form for me that shows that this horse is very very well in is that the horse that came forth in that race, 7-8 lengths behind Apricot Sky has since gone on to win three times, and is currently on a hattrick. Apricot Sky today runs off a mark of 75, while Green Monkey, the horse in question is now rated 76 and judged on the comfortable nature of his last win, he might even be a bit better than that. On these two pieces of form, Candy's gelding now starts to look like he has plenty in hand on today's rivals and in an average 0-80 handicap this horse should be very very hard to beat.
However there are two concerns, both of which made this a NAP instead of a maxbet. Firstly the ground. He has only raced on good to firm ground and the AW surface so far and the ground is forecast good to soft tomorrow which is a worry. However, there is some hope on the sire's side ground wise as many of his offspring seem to prefer slower ground and you would hope the horse would be pulled if the ground was to be against him. Judged on the form, he might even be good enough on ground that wouldn't suit but I guess we will find out tomorrow. The second concern is the break though hopefully Candy will have him 100% fit for today's race and I think this one will be very tough to get past, and even if he can only manage second or third, at 15/2 you would still be making decent profit backing e/w. The dangers are the current favourite, Slip Sliding Away - effective over C and D and unexposed Dilgura could be well h'capped if improved over the summer but hopefully neither will be anywhere near our Apricot :-)
Redcar 17.30 - Little Jimmy Odsox 7/2 NB
Little Jimmy has dropped into a 0-65 from 0-75 after being dropped another lb by the handicapper after an uninspiring effort last time when there was some market support for him. (including my own money!) Giving him a final chance today and can't have him beat in a very weak race on a desperate Redcar card. Won over C and D a few starts back in a higher grade off a 3lb lower mark and on better ground than he faced last time, it is surely his race to lose. Get a quick start, get to the front, slow them down, wind it up, kick on and make all, that's the plan.
Goodwood 15.05 - Charles Camoin 10/1
Backed this one when winning well on belated reappearance from over a year off at 20/1 two starts back and owes me nothing. Connections have pulled him three or four times in the last week or so and his trainer is keen to look after this gelding that has had several problems over the lastfew years. He can be forgiven his last run and despite only seven runners (paying 2 places) he looks worth an e/w punt stepping up to 1m 4f for only the second time. Sylvester Kirk rates his horse and judged on what he said after his reappearance win, he should be going on to bigger and better things. Very lightly raced and unexposed at the trip, I really like his chances providing he runs. I also think Charles will be suited by the nature of the Goodwood course. Undulating and sharp, just like Epsom where he won on his only visit. Hopefully if he runs he can go very close, but only a small e/w bet and nowhere near as confident with this one as I am with the NAP and NB. Might need it a bit firmer too.
Goodwood 16.50 - Apricot Sky 15/2 NAP
Apricot Sky is my best bet of the day for Henry Candy and Dane O'Neill. The chestnut gelding has been put away for most of the summer after his game win from a 1/8 shot back in May. The horse in question was a Noseda colt by the name of Ian's Dream. The horse opened at 2/11 that day after finishing a length behind Reckless Abandon the previous race which happened to be the Group 2 Norfolk Stakes. Punters weren't shy next time and the horse was backed into 1/10 at one point before slightly easing back out to an SP of 1/8. Ian's Dream was beaten again at odds on next time then went on to win a maiden at odds on as well as running in Group 3 Jersey Stakes last time out though not very well and was then given a well deserved break and hasn't been seen since. The horse is rated in the high 80's but was once rated 105 and could be a decent proposition for the Noseda yard next season.
Apricot Sky and Ian's Dream pulled well clear from the rest of the field last time, some seven or eight lengths. The key piece of form for me that shows that this horse is very very well in is that the horse that came forth in that race, 7-8 lengths behind Apricot Sky has since gone on to win three times, and is currently on a hattrick. Apricot Sky today runs off a mark of 75, while Green Monkey, the horse in question is now rated 76 and judged on the comfortable nature of his last win, he might even be a bit better than that. On these two pieces of form, Candy's gelding now starts to look like he has plenty in hand on today's rivals and in an average 0-80 handicap this horse should be very very hard to beat.
However there are two concerns, both of which made this a NAP instead of a maxbet. Firstly the ground. He has only raced on good to firm ground and the AW surface so far and the ground is forecast good to soft tomorrow which is a worry. However, there is some hope on the sire's side ground wise as many of his offspring seem to prefer slower ground and you would hope the horse would be pulled if the ground was to be against him. Judged on the form, he might even be good enough on ground that wouldn't suit but I guess we will find out tomorrow. The second concern is the break though hopefully Candy will have him 100% fit for today's race and I think this one will be very tough to get past, and even if he can only manage second or third, at 15/2 you would still be making decent profit backing e/w. The dangers are the current favourite, Slip Sliding Away - effective over C and D and unexposed Dilgura could be well h'capped if improved over the summer but hopefully neither will be anywhere near our Apricot :-)
Redcar 17.30 - Little Jimmy Odsox 7/2 NB
Little Jimmy has dropped into a 0-65 from 0-75 after being dropped another lb by the handicapper after an uninspiring effort last time when there was some market support for him. (including my own money!) Giving him a final chance today and can't have him beat in a very weak race on a desperate Redcar card. Won over C and D a few starts back in a higher grade off a 3lb lower mark and on better ground than he faced last time, it is surely his race to lose. Get a quick start, get to the front, slow them down, wind it up, kick on and make all, that's the plan.
Goodwood 15.05 - Charles Camoin 10/1
Backed this one when winning well on belated reappearance from over a year off at 20/1 two starts back and owes me nothing. Connections have pulled him three or four times in the last week or so and his trainer is keen to look after this gelding that has had several problems over the lastfew years. He can be forgiven his last run and despite only seven runners (paying 2 places) he looks worth an e/w punt stepping up to 1m 4f for only the second time. Sylvester Kirk rates his horse and judged on what he said after his reappearance win, he should be going on to bigger and better things. Very lightly raced and unexposed at the trip, I really like his chances providing he runs. I also think Charles will be suited by the nature of the Goodwood course. Undulating and sharp, just like Epsom where he won on his only visit. Hopefully if he runs he can go very close, but only a small e/w bet and nowhere near as confident with this one as I am with the NAP and NB. Might need it a bit firmer too.
*late addition* - 15.40 Goodwood Sugar Boy 9/2
Backed the NAP to place and win, the NB as a win single and both in a double pays 37/1 at best prices. Also had a small trixie and tiny treble, which pays 420/1 for your money! Worth a quid or two e/w :-)
Good Luck! I'm hopeful.
PS. If you are more of a short priced big stakes punter then technically on all known form Batallion can not be beaten in the 16.15 Goodwood but I don't trust Haggas and the price is suspiciously appealing for a horse that should be 1/3, in my mind at least! 11/10 on offer but not touching myself.
THT
Backed the NAP to place and win, the NB as a win single and both in a double pays 37/1 at best prices. Also had a small trixie and tiny treble, which pays 420/1 for your money! Worth a quid or two e/w :-)
Good Luck! I'm hopeful.
PS. If you are more of a short priced big stakes punter then technically on all known form Batallion can not be beaten in the 16.15 Goodwood but I don't trust Haggas and the price is suspiciously appealing for a horse that should be 1/3, in my mind at least! 11/10 on offer but not touching myself.
THT
Sunday 28 July 2013
Monday 29th July
Decided to re-start the blog again as was taking up everyone's timelines with my reasoning for my bets. On to Monday.
Bobbyscott 9/2 - Windsor 20.00 - NAP 2nd at SP 7/4 :-(
Bobbyscot is Monday's best bet in my eyes at a very attractive price. Ryan Moore returned to the saddle last time when Bob hinted at his imminent return to form. He races off a 30lb lower mark than when trained abroad and despite not being the force of old, he is only a 6yo and still has a 0-75 like this well within his grasp. If the handbrake was fully released he would be a different class to these and reverting back to turf with Moore in the driving seat, I can't have this ex group rated horse beat.
Fathsta 7/1 - Wolverhampton 16.15 - NB WON
In his 99 races spanning six years, Fathsta has never run in as low a grade handicap as he does here. Yes, he did run in a seller last time and was a beaten favourite, odds on at that, which admittedly is off-putting. However I am more than happy to forgive him as 5f isn't his trip, shown by the fact he has never won over the minimum and the step up back to the ideal 6f is sure to suit. His return to the AW is also a massive positive, as he seems more at home on the artificial surface these days. The jockey is another plus as man of the moment SDS takes over the reigns and will ensure Fathsta gives his all. This lowly 0-75 grade is well within his grasp and despite his age catching up with him he can score here on his 100th outing at the races. On that note, even if he can only manage a place, you will profit backing the C and D winner e/w at what looks a huge price.
Also worth doing a double here as I am very confident with both. If you are more cautious then go e/w but going for the win double myself at 43/1.
Good Luck if you like the look of either of these or get on the double. Can't see these prices being around for long so get on early if you fancy them.
THT
Bobbyscott 9/2 - Windsor 20.00 - NAP 2nd at SP 7/4 :-(
Bobbyscot is Monday's best bet in my eyes at a very attractive price. Ryan Moore returned to the saddle last time when Bob hinted at his imminent return to form. He races off a 30lb lower mark than when trained abroad and despite not being the force of old, he is only a 6yo and still has a 0-75 like this well within his grasp. If the handbrake was fully released he would be a different class to these and reverting back to turf with Moore in the driving seat, I can't have this ex group rated horse beat.
Fathsta 7/1 - Wolverhampton 16.15 - NB WON
In his 99 races spanning six years, Fathsta has never run in as low a grade handicap as he does here. Yes, he did run in a seller last time and was a beaten favourite, odds on at that, which admittedly is off-putting. However I am more than happy to forgive him as 5f isn't his trip, shown by the fact he has never won over the minimum and the step up back to the ideal 6f is sure to suit. His return to the AW is also a massive positive, as he seems more at home on the artificial surface these days. The jockey is another plus as man of the moment SDS takes over the reigns and will ensure Fathsta gives his all. This lowly 0-75 grade is well within his grasp and despite his age catching up with him he can score here on his 100th outing at the races. On that note, even if he can only manage a place, you will profit backing the C and D winner e/w at what looks a huge price.
Also worth doing a double here as I am very confident with both. If you are more cautious then go e/w but going for the win double myself at 43/1.
Good Luck if you like the look of either of these or get on the double. Can't see these prices being around for long so get on early if you fancy them.
THT
Thursday 16 May 2013
Thursday 16th May
After a very promising start yesterday, our Lucky 15 ended in disappointment. Hopefully it can be third time Lucky, as we are all very happy with our selections today.
Salisbury 14.00 - Dream Wild @ 10/11 - @kris1179
York 14.45 - Indian Chief @ 3/1 - @tomquinny2
York 15.50 - Polski Max @ 5/1 - @_JamesStevenson
York 16.25 - Parbold @ 3/1 - @THTRacing
A £1 win Lucky 15 returns £559.
Good Luck today.
THT
Salisbury 14.00 - Dream Wild @ 10/11 - @kris1179
York 14.45 - Indian Chief @ 3/1 - @tomquinny2
York 15.50 - Polski Max @ 5/1 - @_JamesStevenson
York 16.25 - Parbold @ 3/1 - @THTRacing
A £1 win Lucky 15 returns £559.
Good Luck today.
THT
Tuesday 14 May 2013
Wednesday 15th May
Yesterday was appalling and improvement is clearly needed. The massive rainfall didn't help some runners and one runner burst a blood vessel in his race, though no excuses really. Was praying for a solid start to the new Lucky 15 but it wasn't meant to be though I am still confident that over a few weeks you will see good profit following them as we all know what we are doing. We all fancied some better value today so we recommend a smaller stakes each way Lucky 15 today and the selections are as follows.
York 15.15 - Lethal Force @ 20/1 - @tomquinny2 - (Guest Tipster) - 2nd
York 15.50 - Opera Box @ 15/2 - @kris1179 - Unplaced
York 17.00 - Right Touch @ 8/1 - @_JamesStevenson - Unplaced
Bath 20.40 - Stonecrabstomorrow @ 8/1 - @THTRacing
Pays £5855 for a 25p e/w stake at best prices.
Good Luck.
Decided to back STONECRABSTOMORROW as he will pop up one or two times this summer and I can't see why he doesn't have a great chance to do so tomorrow. He runs pretty well on any ground and overcame a 7 month absence to run very well when unfancied earlier this month. He is sent out again for his second start for his new yard and as he will come on for the last run, he should be going close in what looks a weaker race, despite the number of runners. Backed him as an e/w single as well as in L15 as 8/1 and bookies paying 4 places at 1/4 odds means we will still get a nice 2/1 winner should he only place. Has to be right there in the closing stages and might just stick his neck out.
THT
York 15.15 - Lethal Force @ 20/1 - @tomquinny2 - (Guest Tipster) - 2nd
York 15.50 - Opera Box @ 15/2 - @kris1179 - Unplaced
York 17.00 - Right Touch @ 8/1 - @_JamesStevenson - Unplaced
Bath 20.40 - Stonecrabstomorrow @ 8/1 - @THTRacing
Pays £5855 for a 25p e/w stake at best prices.
Good Luck.
Decided to back STONECRABSTOMORROW as he will pop up one or two times this summer and I can't see why he doesn't have a great chance to do so tomorrow. He runs pretty well on any ground and overcame a 7 month absence to run very well when unfancied earlier this month. He is sent out again for his second start for his new yard and as he will come on for the last run, he should be going close in what looks a weaker race, despite the number of runners. Backed him as an e/w single as well as in L15 as 8/1 and bookies paying 4 places at 1/4 odds means we will still get a nice 2/1 winner should he only place. Has to be right there in the closing stages and might just stick his neck out.
THT
Monday 13 May 2013
Tuesday 14th May
Three seconds yesterday which was very frustrating but nothing we can do now. Even more annoying was that I highlighted both Skytrain and Canyari but didn't back either then watched them both win, but that's racing I suppose.
On to Tuesday where I am delighted to be teaming up with both @kris1179 and @_JamesStevenson who most of you will know from Twitter. In case you don't, Kris is someone who has been on Twitter for a long time and has had great success. He is someone who really knows his stuff and I am always worried when he backs something in the same race as me when I have backed another horse, Kris usually being right! I have only recently seen James on Twitter after he landed some impressive winners at incredible odds. Somewhat of a long-shot specialist, he has taken Twitter by storm in recent weeks and I am delighted that he and Kris have agreed to offer their NAP each day for us. Kris and James and myself will each pick a selection as our NAP and put it forward to make a Lucky 15 along with another guest tipster from Twitter. The guest will be invited to offer their NAP and if successful will then nominate their NAP the next day and so on until one loses. We are all very hopeful you will make plenty of cash by following the Lucky 15 on a daily basis. I am looking forward to working with them both as well as our guests and I have every confidence that we can make this a big success.
The first guest tipster is @TomBullOfficial and we wish him the best of luck.
The selections:
15.10 Beverley - Divertimenti @ 7/4 - @JamesStevenson - 4th
15.30 Sedgefield - Zazamix @ 3/1 - @TomBullOfficial (Guest Tipster) - 4th
16.20 Wincanton - Velator @ 5/2 - @kris1179 - PU
20.10 Chepstow - Headline News @ 6/1 - @THTRacing - NR
We advise a £1 win bet on the Lucky 15 which returns £741.
Good Luck!
Aside from the team's Lucky 15:
ELEGANT OPHELIA looks worth an each way bet in the 19.40 Chepstow. After being given a non-trying ride last time, Kirby has been rightly given the boot and champion jockey Richard Hughes takes over for the first time. EO drops back to her ideal trip, shown by her very close third in her sole start over 10f and is just 1lb higher today with far more capable hands doing the steering. The softer ground wont bother her as shown by her second at Salisbury in very heavy ground and she could run a massive race at a big price. 14/1. Stag Hill may be the chief threat at a big price too, though the forecast softish ground is probably the main reason for his attractive 12/1.
HEADLINE NEWS looks a very generous price at 6/1, though very annoyed I missed 10's - ridiculous price. Her record at this level is 221, the defeats by half a length and a short head. She raced in a much better race last time which was back in September finishing a very creditable 5th at Newmarket just a couple of lengths off the pace. She has the 8 month break to overcome but her close second after a similar length break earlier in her career suggests this won't be a problem, and neither will the softish ground forecast. Chepstow 20.10.
CUSTEROFTHEWEST is a horse that I would not have backed had I not been told to do so by someone very reliable. The first time blinkers, the step down in class and the step up in trip are the three main reasons to why this one is expected to go well tomorrow and connections are hopeful of a big run.
SCHINKEN OTTO is 5lb below his last winning mark which was here at Sedgefield, his favourite racetrack. 7/1 is overpriced and he has to be of e/w interest despite the the fact that he isn't getting any younger. He is back in a lower grade and surely must go close, money coming for the veteran too so get on quick.
Other selections:
15.30 Sedgefield - Schinken Otto @ 7/1 e/w - Unplaced
15.50 Wincanton - Custerofthewest @ 7/1 e/w - Unplaced
19.40 Chepstow - Elegant Ophelia @ 14/1 e/w Unplaced
20.10 Chepstow - Headline News @ 6/1 e/w NR
As well as backing all of these as singles I am also having a tiny e/w Lucky 15 as more of a fun bet. 25p e/w returns a mighty £2910.
Good Luck.
THT
On to Tuesday where I am delighted to be teaming up with both @kris1179 and @_JamesStevenson who most of you will know from Twitter. In case you don't, Kris is someone who has been on Twitter for a long time and has had great success. He is someone who really knows his stuff and I am always worried when he backs something in the same race as me when I have backed another horse, Kris usually being right! I have only recently seen James on Twitter after he landed some impressive winners at incredible odds. Somewhat of a long-shot specialist, he has taken Twitter by storm in recent weeks and I am delighted that he and Kris have agreed to offer their NAP each day for us. Kris and James and myself will each pick a selection as our NAP and put it forward to make a Lucky 15 along with another guest tipster from Twitter. The guest will be invited to offer their NAP and if successful will then nominate their NAP the next day and so on until one loses. We are all very hopeful you will make plenty of cash by following the Lucky 15 on a daily basis. I am looking forward to working with them both as well as our guests and I have every confidence that we can make this a big success.
The first guest tipster is @TomBullOfficial and we wish him the best of luck.
The selections:
15.10 Beverley - Divertimenti @ 7/4 - @JamesStevenson - 4th
15.30 Sedgefield - Zazamix @ 3/1 - @TomBullOfficial (Guest Tipster) - 4th
16.20 Wincanton - Velator @ 5/2 - @kris1179 - PU
20.10 Chepstow - Headline News @ 6/1 - @THTRacing - NR
We advise a £1 win bet on the Lucky 15 which returns £741.
Good Luck!
Aside from the team's Lucky 15:
ELEGANT OPHELIA looks worth an each way bet in the 19.40 Chepstow. After being given a non-trying ride last time, Kirby has been rightly given the boot and champion jockey Richard Hughes takes over for the first time. EO drops back to her ideal trip, shown by her very close third in her sole start over 10f and is just 1lb higher today with far more capable hands doing the steering. The softer ground wont bother her as shown by her second at Salisbury in very heavy ground and she could run a massive race at a big price. 14/1. Stag Hill may be the chief threat at a big price too, though the forecast softish ground is probably the main reason for his attractive 12/1.
HEADLINE NEWS looks a very generous price at 6/1, though very annoyed I missed 10's - ridiculous price. Her record at this level is 221, the defeats by half a length and a short head. She raced in a much better race last time which was back in September finishing a very creditable 5th at Newmarket just a couple of lengths off the pace. She has the 8 month break to overcome but her close second after a similar length break earlier in her career suggests this won't be a problem, and neither will the softish ground forecast. Chepstow 20.10.
CUSTEROFTHEWEST is a horse that I would not have backed had I not been told to do so by someone very reliable. The first time blinkers, the step down in class and the step up in trip are the three main reasons to why this one is expected to go well tomorrow and connections are hopeful of a big run.
SCHINKEN OTTO is 5lb below his last winning mark which was here at Sedgefield, his favourite racetrack. 7/1 is overpriced and he has to be of e/w interest despite the the fact that he isn't getting any younger. He is back in a lower grade and surely must go close, money coming for the veteran too so get on quick.
Other selections:
15.30 Sedgefield - Schinken Otto @ 7/1 e/w - Unplaced
15.50 Wincanton - Custerofthewest @ 7/1 e/w - Unplaced
19.40 Chepstow - Elegant Ophelia @ 14/1 e/w Unplaced
20.10 Chepstow - Headline News @ 6/1 e/w NR
As well as backing all of these as singles I am also having a tiny e/w Lucky 15 as more of a fun bet. 25p e/w returns a mighty £2910.
Good Luck.
THT
Sunday 12 May 2013
Monday 13th May
Shocking week last week, struggled for winners and couldn't get any momentum and some bad luck thrown in for good measure. Today is a new day and a new week and will hopefully come back to form!
RED PALADIN won very gamely on his reappearance from a nine month break under a good ride from Amy Ryan. The pair team up again in a bigger field with the ground to suit perfectly. These races seem somewhat a lottery and RP will need more though he is open to big improvement as he will have come on a bunch for the run last time and can go close here. With bookies paying 4 places and this horse priced up at 9/1, you need to get on quick.
GRANDORIO won well enough last week to suggest he may not have finished winning yet. His in form trainer has sent him back out again before the handicapper penalises him and there looks to be nothing in his way on Monday; 2/1 may look huge come the off as he was merely pushed out last time when he scored with consummate ease.
APACHE GLORY is now 11lb higher than her first win three starts back. She has won two more since then, most impressively at 10f (today's trip) and can go in again on Monday. Andrea Atzeni makes the trip to Doncaster for just this one ride and as she has won off this mark and higher before, her winning run may yet continue. Despite only winning by a narrow margin last time she made up a ton of ground late on to cut them all down late and the extra furlong today will suit her just right, very fair price too, though this race is competitive.
Robert Tart's valuable 5lb claim means BRYNFORD runs off a 1lb lower mark than when he won cosily over track and trip two starts back so has to be right there on Monday. He was upped in trip after that running very well finishing only a couple off the pace in third and the step back today will suit him perfectly. The danger might be well-related Moma Lee should the money talk as she could be potentially very well treated. 9/2 is on the shorter side of what I had hoped but still looks worth the bet. (Moma Lee won)
As you know, backing a debutant is something I rarely do and usually advise against. However the in-form trainer Ralph Beckett has one tomorrow with a pedigree that screams speed. WEISSE SOCKEN which is German for White Socks is by Acclamation out of a 5f two year old winner (RPR 96) and already holds a Super Sprint entry meaning this one must be flying at home. Hannon's horse will be well supported and could well win but I fancy Beckett, who is operating at an impressive £1 level stakes profit of £65 this season, will have this one primed to perfection and in my eyes is very much the one to beat, could be a nice price too, will wait till prices released in the morning, but anything over 2/1 looks good to me. << The big danger is now a non runner and I have decided to back WS at 11/10 as I can't see past him now.
Singles:
15.15 Doncaster - Red Paladin @ 9/1 e/w 2nd
15.50 Doncaster - Grandorio @ 2/1 3rd
16.00 Wolverhampton - Brynford @ 9/2 7th
17.00 Doncaster - Apache Glory @ 11/4 2nd
17.50 Windsor - Weisse Socken @ 11/10 2nd
Double:
Grandorio/Apache Glory @ 10/1
Lucky 15:
Apache Glory, Weisse Socken, Grandorio, Brynford.
Pays £420 for a £1 win stake.
Good Luck all.
THT
RED PALADIN won very gamely on his reappearance from a nine month break under a good ride from Amy Ryan. The pair team up again in a bigger field with the ground to suit perfectly. These races seem somewhat a lottery and RP will need more though he is open to big improvement as he will have come on a bunch for the run last time and can go close here. With bookies paying 4 places and this horse priced up at 9/1, you need to get on quick.
GRANDORIO won well enough last week to suggest he may not have finished winning yet. His in form trainer has sent him back out again before the handicapper penalises him and there looks to be nothing in his way on Monday; 2/1 may look huge come the off as he was merely pushed out last time when he scored with consummate ease.
APACHE GLORY is now 11lb higher than her first win three starts back. She has won two more since then, most impressively at 10f (today's trip) and can go in again on Monday. Andrea Atzeni makes the trip to Doncaster for just this one ride and as she has won off this mark and higher before, her winning run may yet continue. Despite only winning by a narrow margin last time she made up a ton of ground late on to cut them all down late and the extra furlong today will suit her just right, very fair price too, though this race is competitive.
Robert Tart's valuable 5lb claim means BRYNFORD runs off a 1lb lower mark than when he won cosily over track and trip two starts back so has to be right there on Monday. He was upped in trip after that running very well finishing only a couple off the pace in third and the step back today will suit him perfectly. The danger might be well-related Moma Lee should the money talk as she could be potentially very well treated. 9/2 is on the shorter side of what I had hoped but still looks worth the bet. (Moma Lee won)
As you know, backing a debutant is something I rarely do and usually advise against. However the in-form trainer Ralph Beckett has one tomorrow with a pedigree that screams speed. WEISSE SOCKEN which is German for White Socks is by Acclamation out of a 5f two year old winner (RPR 96) and already holds a Super Sprint entry meaning this one must be flying at home. Hannon's horse will be well supported and could well win but I fancy Beckett, who is operating at an impressive £1 level stakes profit of £65 this season, will have this one primed to perfection and in my eyes is very much the one to beat, could be a nice price too, will wait till prices released in the morning, but anything over 2/1 looks good to me. << The big danger is now a non runner and I have decided to back WS at 11/10 as I can't see past him now.
Singles:
15.15 Doncaster - Red Paladin @ 9/1 e/w 2nd
15.50 Doncaster - Grandorio @ 2/1 3rd
16.00 Wolverhampton - Brynford @ 9/2 7th
17.00 Doncaster - Apache Glory @ 11/4 2nd
17.50 Windsor - Weisse Socken @ 11/10 2nd
Double:
Grandorio/Apache Glory @ 10/1
Lucky 15:
Apache Glory, Weisse Socken, Grandorio, Brynford.
Pays £420 for a £1 win stake.
Good Luck all.
THT
Thursday 9 May 2013
Friday 10th May
Hi all, thanks for checking out my blog. Unfortunately very short of time so explanations for my bets very brief, apologies!
The MOOSE goes at Chester and is unlikely to win. However he is always unlikely to win as he is highly tried and always a big price. Usually he out runs his price in a big way, for example his 50/1 second to none other than Sprinter Sacre as well as his massive performance a few weeks ago to land massive 28/1 odds for us. Bloody love him and will always back him till he retires. Flying very high today and hoping he runs well. Placing in this company would be astonishing, unthinkable he could win this, but if anyone can defy the odds it is this fella. I expect him to drift before the off but taken BOG and recommend you do too. 50/1.
REGAL DAN looks overpriced to me at 5's (I have him at about 3's) and looks worth a good e/w bet. This way we can break even for a place, make a good profit for a win. Stepping back in trip today will suit and he run very well on reappearance and can go very close despite a small penalty for his 1 length defeat on return.
After much debate also backed GANDALAK. Should be more to come and though this is competitive, conditions will suit and he looks a very fair price.
13.45 Chester - Gandalak @ 7/2
14.45 Chester - Mad Moose @ 50/1 e/w PLACED
19.40 Ascot - Regal Dan @ 5/1 e/w
Gandalak/Regal Dan double pays 26/1. << Has to be worth a couple of quid at least.
Good Luck. Oh if you are into golf then I am backing Henrik Stenson at 33/1 each way for the Players Champ!
THT
The MOOSE goes at Chester and is unlikely to win. However he is always unlikely to win as he is highly tried and always a big price. Usually he out runs his price in a big way, for example his 50/1 second to none other than Sprinter Sacre as well as his massive performance a few weeks ago to land massive 28/1 odds for us. Bloody love him and will always back him till he retires. Flying very high today and hoping he runs well. Placing in this company would be astonishing, unthinkable he could win this, but if anyone can defy the odds it is this fella. I expect him to drift before the off but taken BOG and recommend you do too. 50/1.
REGAL DAN looks overpriced to me at 5's (I have him at about 3's) and looks worth a good e/w bet. This way we can break even for a place, make a good profit for a win. Stepping back in trip today will suit and he run very well on reappearance and can go very close despite a small penalty for his 1 length defeat on return.
After much debate also backed GANDALAK. Should be more to come and though this is competitive, conditions will suit and he looks a very fair price.
13.45 Chester - Gandalak @ 7/2
14.45 Chester - Mad Moose @ 50/1 e/w PLACED
19.40 Ascot - Regal Dan @ 5/1 e/w
Gandalak/Regal Dan double pays 26/1. << Has to be worth a couple of quid at least.
Good Luck. Oh if you are into golf then I am backing Henrik Stenson at 33/1 each way for the Players Champ!
THT
Tuesday 7 May 2013
Wednesday 8th May
Same old story on Tuesday as we hit 1/2 on a monster 3-figure double. Lost count fo how many times this has happened! Anyway nice to see Danzoe win, a horse I really like and he gave a career best performace to win well at Yarmouth. On to Wednesday.
BUCKLAND I always back as he is a horse I love and always does better than people expect. He is all heart and is probably out of his depth tomorrow over a longer trip than he has ever tried before and will need to improve to land this. Hans Adielsson's stable star, he is a horse that ran seventeen races before finally getting off the mark over 5f at Wolves.He then had to wait another five races before his connections thought he might be suited by a significant step up in trip. This is what made the horse, as he rolled off a four-timer, his first at 1m2f in a Class 5 race, his second at 1m3f in a Class 4 race, his third at 1m4f in a Class 3 race and his forth in a Class 2 race back at 1m3f as he won so convincingly by 5 lengths merely pushed out the time before. He was then stepped up massively in trip to 2m and I must admit I doubted he could win that race and did not back him yet was nearly humbled as he ran a stormer just being nailed on the line, going down by a short head. He was then entered in the Group 3 Sagaro Stakes where he massively out ran his 33/1 SP only just missing out on third place. He has been stepped up again this time to 18f in the Chester Cup and Buick takes the ride. Realistically I can't see him winning though he has good place claims, then again he has surprised us all before and looks a fair price for a horse who is still improving. 14/1.
Was going to leave it at that but I couldn't resist a small e/w bet in the same race on SIMENON who looks overpriced to me. The two time Royal Ascot winner wasn't at his best at all on heavy ground over jumps in Ireland at the end of 2012 but makes the trip over to Chester today for the big race. The break would have freshened him up and Willie Mullins will ensure he is in prime conditions for Tuesday's race. His last flat race was a Group 1 in Ireland where he came a few lengths off the pace in 5th, in ground he isn't as useful on, and was staying on better than anything at the end. He will stay the trip today all week and offers no concerns in that department. His last two flat runs in England he has won, both at Royal Ascot within the space of four days, destroying the field on both occasions on ground he likes. For me he looks the value bet of the race, though many will argue the same with their own picks. Unlike Buckland I can see Simenon winning this and he has solid place claims in my opinion should he be race-fit on his return, though that is never a concern when a horse is trained with WPM. 12/1.
LILY EDGE is ahorse I backed to both her victories, both over today's distance. I backed her again the next time when she drifted like a barge right before the off from 5/2 fav to 7/1 and was ridden to lose. I explained what happened before and won;t dwell on it again but it was a ride that made no sense and the drift spoke volumes. She was upped in class the next time where she ran into plenty of smart ones and fnished last despite me making a case for her then too. She has something to prove now but is back down in grade and is on a C and D hattrick which she may well complete, providing a short break has freshened her up. 10/1 looks massive for 3 places so I am having a decent each way bet on her as she will be flying home late from the rear (if ridden properly!) and might just get her nose up on the line.
The 19.40 at Kempton looks a two horse race between Rivellino and FOXTROT JUBILEE with preference for the latter who is dropped back down in class today and goes for the in-fom Ralph Beckett yard. He won his first three, two over C and D and despite finishing behind Rivellino last time, FJ re-opposes on marginally better terms, though the return to the polytrack will be his main plus point. I fancy him to reverse the running as he has so much more too offer and is likely to improve, especially as his last run would have freshened him up for this one. 7/2.
Chester Stakes (14.45):
Buckland @ 14/1 e/w
Simenon @ 16/1 e/w Placed
Kempton 18.10 - Lily Edge @ 10/1 e/w
Kempton 19.40 - Foxtrot Jubilee @ 7/2
Double:
Kempton 18.40 - Tajheez
Newcastle 19.00 - Shalwa
Pays 8/1.
Good Luck all.
THT
Rolling Accumulator: Bet 1 - £10 on Over 11.5 corners in the Spurs/Chelsea game returns £17.50
BUCKLAND I always back as he is a horse I love and always does better than people expect. He is all heart and is probably out of his depth tomorrow over a longer trip than he has ever tried before and will need to improve to land this. Hans Adielsson's stable star, he is a horse that ran seventeen races before finally getting off the mark over 5f at Wolves.He then had to wait another five races before his connections thought he might be suited by a significant step up in trip. This is what made the horse, as he rolled off a four-timer, his first at 1m2f in a Class 5 race, his second at 1m3f in a Class 4 race, his third at 1m4f in a Class 3 race and his forth in a Class 2 race back at 1m3f as he won so convincingly by 5 lengths merely pushed out the time before. He was then stepped up massively in trip to 2m and I must admit I doubted he could win that race and did not back him yet was nearly humbled as he ran a stormer just being nailed on the line, going down by a short head. He was then entered in the Group 3 Sagaro Stakes where he massively out ran his 33/1 SP only just missing out on third place. He has been stepped up again this time to 18f in the Chester Cup and Buick takes the ride. Realistically I can't see him winning though he has good place claims, then again he has surprised us all before and looks a fair price for a horse who is still improving. 14/1.
Was going to leave it at that but I couldn't resist a small e/w bet in the same race on SIMENON who looks overpriced to me. The two time Royal Ascot winner wasn't at his best at all on heavy ground over jumps in Ireland at the end of 2012 but makes the trip over to Chester today for the big race. The break would have freshened him up and Willie Mullins will ensure he is in prime conditions for Tuesday's race. His last flat race was a Group 1 in Ireland where he came a few lengths off the pace in 5th, in ground he isn't as useful on, and was staying on better than anything at the end. He will stay the trip today all week and offers no concerns in that department. His last two flat runs in England he has won, both at Royal Ascot within the space of four days, destroying the field on both occasions on ground he likes. For me he looks the value bet of the race, though many will argue the same with their own picks. Unlike Buckland I can see Simenon winning this and he has solid place claims in my opinion should he be race-fit on his return, though that is never a concern when a horse is trained with WPM. 12/1.
LILY EDGE is ahorse I backed to both her victories, both over today's distance. I backed her again the next time when she drifted like a barge right before the off from 5/2 fav to 7/1 and was ridden to lose. I explained what happened before and won;t dwell on it again but it was a ride that made no sense and the drift spoke volumes. She was upped in class the next time where she ran into plenty of smart ones and fnished last despite me making a case for her then too. She has something to prove now but is back down in grade and is on a C and D hattrick which she may well complete, providing a short break has freshened her up. 10/1 looks massive for 3 places so I am having a decent each way bet on her as she will be flying home late from the rear (if ridden properly!) and might just get her nose up on the line.
The 19.40 at Kempton looks a two horse race between Rivellino and FOXTROT JUBILEE with preference for the latter who is dropped back down in class today and goes for the in-fom Ralph Beckett yard. He won his first three, two over C and D and despite finishing behind Rivellino last time, FJ re-opposes on marginally better terms, though the return to the polytrack will be his main plus point. I fancy him to reverse the running as he has so much more too offer and is likely to improve, especially as his last run would have freshened him up for this one. 7/2.
Chester Stakes (14.45):
Buckland @ 14/1 e/w
Simenon @ 16/1 e/w Placed
Kempton 18.10 - Lily Edge @ 10/1 e/w
Kempton 19.40 - Foxtrot Jubilee @ 7/2
Double:
Kempton 18.40 - Tajheez
Newcastle 19.00 - Shalwa
Pays 8/1.
Good Luck all.
THT
Rolling Accumulator: Bet 1 - £10 on Over 11.5 corners in the Spurs/Chelsea game returns £17.50
Monday 6 May 2013
Tuesday 7th May
Decent day on Monday, though only small stakes so not too much to shout about. However, always nice to lad some big priced winners and 6/1, 16/1 and 16/1 shots all went in for us. On to Tuesday where again I advise smallish stakes as nothing I would back with 100% confidence, though a few look overpriced and worth a bet.
Annoyed I missed the early price but DANZOE is fantastic value in the 14.50 Yarmouth at 7/1. His trainer runs three in this race and judged on jockey bookings he looks to be the second best chance of the yard as Dan's regular rider prefers Speedyfix at a shortish price. He is the one to beat after some very consistent performances recently though the seconds are mounting up and Darren Egan is well worth his small yet valuable 3lb claim. Danzoe has to be respected back on turf and I had him around 3/1, 4/1 in my mind so seeing that I had missed 8/1 was frustrating but at 7/1 he is worth a decent e/w bet and has to be going close. He is also a C and D winner and has won 2 of his last 3 on turf. This race doesn't look to strong either and he goes well enough fresh and won after a similar length break before and looks nailed on for a place at least.
ORPSIE BOY goes in the 19.10 at Catterick and while he isn't the force of old he looks a little overpriced tomorrow at 12/1. He has won off a mark of 96 before and is now back on his last winning mark which incidentally was over today's course and distance. He is back from a break today and goes well fresh, as shown by his win on reappearance after seven months off. He can be forgiven his last run on soft ground that didn't suit him, at the end of a long season and has to have every chance of going close today. I would have taken around 7/1 - 8/1 on this one and 12/1 looks a lovely little price.
RED LARKSPUR goes in a handicap tomorrow at Kempton (16.40) and looks to have every chance of following up. She won here on his only visit, in only his second ever run hacking up winning as she liked. She was then unsuccessfully tried in higher grades before she was returned to today's level last time when winning at odds on, merely shaken up to go clear in the first time hood and she had plenty left in the tank suggesting his penalty won't defy her from going in again at this grade though there are a few dangers off decent marks. 9/4 looks a great price for this one and will likely go off shorter.
MAGIQUE is an interesting prospect stepping up in trip for his handicap debut. He won with any amount in hand last time eased into the race by Shane Kelly with a typical cool as you like ride. William Buick takes over today for his only ride on Tuesday and she looks set to win at a nice price too. Annoyed to find she was 3/1 earlier but still happy with 2/1 and she will go into a double with our other short priced pick.
The 15.50 at Kempton is a very competitive little race though three stand out for me. Jonnie Skull ran out an easy winner last time under a great Fallon ride and steps down in trip slightly today, Katy's Secret is dangerously well treated and a good price too. Athletic is a model of consistency and is on a lower mark on turf than his recent 22122 form on the A/W. He has also rejoined his former trainer and will go very well under Robert Tart and may be worth a bet in himself. However I have decided to put these three in a multi tri-cast any order bet just tiny stakes as today's fun bet though the Botti newcomer could be anything here in UK.
Singles:
14.50 Yarmouth - Danzoe @ 8/1 e/w WON
15.50 Yarmouth - Athletic @ 8/1 e/w
16.10 Kempton - Magique @ 2/1
16.40 Kempton - Red Larkspur @ 9/4
19.10 Catterick - Orpsie Boy @ 12/1 e/w
Doubles:
Red Larkspur/Magique @ 9/1
Danzoe/Orpsie Boy @ 103/1 e/w
Fun bet:
Any order tri-cast in the 15.50 Yarmouth of Katy's Secret, Athletic and Jonnie Skull.
Good Luck.
THT
Annoyed I missed the early price but DANZOE is fantastic value in the 14.50 Yarmouth at 7/1. His trainer runs three in this race and judged on jockey bookings he looks to be the second best chance of the yard as Dan's regular rider prefers Speedyfix at a shortish price. He is the one to beat after some very consistent performances recently though the seconds are mounting up and Darren Egan is well worth his small yet valuable 3lb claim. Danzoe has to be respected back on turf and I had him around 3/1, 4/1 in my mind so seeing that I had missed 8/1 was frustrating but at 7/1 he is worth a decent e/w bet and has to be going close. He is also a C and D winner and has won 2 of his last 3 on turf. This race doesn't look to strong either and he goes well enough fresh and won after a similar length break before and looks nailed on for a place at least.
ORPSIE BOY goes in the 19.10 at Catterick and while he isn't the force of old he looks a little overpriced tomorrow at 12/1. He has won off a mark of 96 before and is now back on his last winning mark which incidentally was over today's course and distance. He is back from a break today and goes well fresh, as shown by his win on reappearance after seven months off. He can be forgiven his last run on soft ground that didn't suit him, at the end of a long season and has to have every chance of going close today. I would have taken around 7/1 - 8/1 on this one and 12/1 looks a lovely little price.
RED LARKSPUR goes in a handicap tomorrow at Kempton (16.40) and looks to have every chance of following up. She won here on his only visit, in only his second ever run hacking up winning as she liked. She was then unsuccessfully tried in higher grades before she was returned to today's level last time when winning at odds on, merely shaken up to go clear in the first time hood and she had plenty left in the tank suggesting his penalty won't defy her from going in again at this grade though there are a few dangers off decent marks. 9/4 looks a great price for this one and will likely go off shorter.
MAGIQUE is an interesting prospect stepping up in trip for his handicap debut. He won with any amount in hand last time eased into the race by Shane Kelly with a typical cool as you like ride. William Buick takes over today for his only ride on Tuesday and she looks set to win at a nice price too. Annoyed to find she was 3/1 earlier but still happy with 2/1 and she will go into a double with our other short priced pick.
The 15.50 at Kempton is a very competitive little race though three stand out for me. Jonnie Skull ran out an easy winner last time under a great Fallon ride and steps down in trip slightly today, Katy's Secret is dangerously well treated and a good price too. Athletic is a model of consistency and is on a lower mark on turf than his recent 22122 form on the A/W. He has also rejoined his former trainer and will go very well under Robert Tart and may be worth a bet in himself. However I have decided to put these three in a multi tri-cast any order bet just tiny stakes as today's fun bet though the Botti newcomer could be anything here in UK.
Singles:
14.50 Yarmouth - Danzoe @ 8/1 e/w WON
15.50 Yarmouth - Athletic @ 8/1 e/w
16.10 Kempton - Magique @ 2/1
16.40 Kempton - Red Larkspur @ 9/4
19.10 Catterick - Orpsie Boy @ 12/1 e/w
Doubles:
Red Larkspur/Magique @ 9/1
Danzoe/Orpsie Boy @ 103/1 e/w
Fun bet:
Any order tri-cast in the 15.50 Yarmouth of Katy's Secret, Athletic and Jonnie Skull.
Good Luck.
THT
Sunday 5 May 2013
Monday 6th May
As I pointed out on Sunday evening on Twitter, not great racing on the flat on Monday but there are still opportunities worth having a small play on though very small stakes from me as shown. If you fancy singles, or make your own multiples then feel free but I have decided to do two Lucky 15's, one eachway and one to win, as small stakes, big returns are everyone's favourite type of bet and certainly nothing I would advise to lump on today. Good Luck all.
CAPPELANUS is an unlucky horse with quite a confusingly troubled history. He has been tried over many different distances, for many owners and trainers, on every going you can imagine and seems to act well on anything proven by his wins on Heavy, Soft and Standard ground (A/W) though I think he is a good ground horse. After going very close recently; once almost on the bridle in final furlong and cruising when the door was firmly shut on him ruining his chance, once when the jockey seemed to not want to win and once when he went down by a head. 222 on a formbook is off putting but a few key changes today will in my opinion, bring about a change of luck and a well deserved victory. Firstly Shane Kelly. How he has come about this ride I don't know but this has to be a positive thing. Renowned for his masterful rides on tricky customers, he is the man for the job. Whilst Cappelanus isn't a quirky sort as such, he is proving a hard-to-win-with type and we may see another masterclass in horsemanship on Monday and I think this one could be hard on the bridle while others are struggling. That's the plan anyway! ;-) Another big difference is that this is his first flat run on turf since being hammered on heavy ground in Ireland last Summer and the firmer ground today will probably suit as mentioned. His last race was actually at Haydock over the jumps where he was comfortably beaten, but the race was good quality and higher than he has ever contested on the flat. He has been given a short break to freshen him up as he had a busy March (four races) and he looks set to go mightily close today in a weak looking race. Regarding the dangers, nothing stands out particularly though it is a fairly tight market. At 6/1 in a 8 runner race (three places) he looks nailed on for a place and I expect him to be winning this weakish looking race.
FINLODEX is another runner that caught the eye in a desperately weak race at Bath. The lightly raced chestnut ran in a very strong race for the grade last time against three who have won once since and three who have won twice since that race. Therefore six subsequent winners were in that race and Monday should see that rise to seven. Worth noting he finished forth behind one of the dual subsequent winners and two who have gone on to win once since. In other words she had two dual subsequent winners along with another one who has gone on to win again, all behind him. This looks very strong form. Incidentally Shane Kelly is in the saddle again; as I mentioned on Twitter, he has some very interesting rides at Bath on Monday. Aside from the last race I mentioned, he has shaped as though his turn is coming, although admittedly he is a 10 race maiden. He looks ready for a stiff test on good ground on turf and has been off the track for a few months, though this looks to be another advantage as the last time he had a similar break, returning over a mile, he went very close finishing half a length behind a horse owned by The Queen. (thought this was interesting) Another one at a very fair price, 11/2 and he looks another nailed on for a place, and I really fancy he will be going very close indeed in this company, though Spinning Ridge is a massive price and might be worth a small e/w coverbet (16/1)
As you can see by our picks so far, we expect Shane Kelly to have a good day at Bath. Well it doesn't stop there because FOR SHIA AND LULA is overpriced imo and is another horse ridden by him that we fancy. The horse has run some good races though wasn't at his best last time when seventh of seven but that run is easily excused; he was only three lengths behind the winner for a start and secondly as he was in the hands of an apprentice and he can be a tricky ride. I have tracked this horse for a while as I am sure he is capable of much more than he has shown so far. The key to him may be transferring him back on to turf, on which he races off a 10lb lower mark than A/W. In fact, FSAL has never run off a mark this low and is surely ready to strike, despite the favourite looking solid despite a penalty. At worst I expect him to come third, which paying three places at 6/1, you will still show a profit. He just looks one of those horses that the (in form) trainer knows is better than he has shown. You see horses struggling for wins then suddenly three come in three races; he looks like one of those little plots. DM Loughnane is trainer I like actually. He places his horses well, as shown by his 38% strike rate in the last two weeks. He often ends up, whether it is by choice or coincidence, training these quirky types and his primary jockey is the perfect man to do the riding and I will be very disappointed if he doesn't give a very good account of himself in this.
AMOSITE is a horse I have backed before and likely will again. She is a lovely horse and runs at Warwick tomorrow. After winning nicely at Lingfield three starts back she was unsuccessfully tried over a mile, and was quickly reverted back to her ideal 7f. She was going very well and was ready to make her challenge on the re-opposing Maggie Pink when Amosite went wrong and was quickly pulled up. I am certainly not a vet by any means and couldn't find out what went wrong but a burst blood vessel looked the likely cause. Anyway she is fighting fit and back today, raring to go (I hope) over her ideal trip in optimum conditions (good ground) so I expect her to go very well and definitely out-run her massive 16/1 price at time of writing. She has popped up at big prices before (6/1, 16/1, 18/1) and will do again as for some reason people just can't have this horse. Worth noting she was a short head off a 28/1 surprise and twice missed out on a win at 25/1 by a head. So as you can see, she is very unfancied nearly everytime yet almost always out-runs her price in a big way. Assuming she is fully fit she is a very interesting runner, especially with a very eye-catching jockey booking too. Silvestre de Sousa now takes over the reigns though many top jockeys have come and gone so I am not paying too much attention to that. However, she has been with the same trainer from day one over five years ago, and this is something I always like to see. While Monday's race is competitive, expect her to do what she does best and outrun her expectations, a place would be good, a win would be fantastic and I think she has every chance back on turf.
GIN TIME has been an unlucky horse thus far coming second on his three runs. He is weighted to reverse form with Scargill and should do so as he was only nailed on the line last time. Ding Ding might end up being the big threat of those with experience though GT is a fair price and worth one more go before he becomes frustrating, although some may argue he is exactly that already.
SIMPLY A LEGEND is an interesting runner in the bumper at Ffos Las tomorrow. He was well backed last time and at one stage looked all over the winner before a nice prospect took over and won the race infront of an even money shot, with SAL just behind in third. Considering this was his first time at 2m and his massive lack of inexperience, this looks a very good run and with good vibes coming from connections, he should go close for the Alan King/Wayne Hutchinson combination though there will be a Nicky Henderson short priced favourite to overcome yet I fancy he could be the one to beat in this weak looking race.
Despite mentioning on twitter that CLIMAXFORTACKLE looked on the short side, after studying the race I really think he is the one to beat. He is admiraby consistent; finished in top three in last eight runs in a slightly lower grade than this race. Connections obviously feel like he would be better off a low weight in a stronger race than a high weight in a weaker race as he likes to cut them all down late with a powerful surge - great to watch. In fact he is actually 1lb out of the handicap today, and goes off bottom weight, just 8-7, the lightest he has been carrying for a long time. The way he finished last time in a strong race was very eye-catching, especially considering he totally missed the break. He took off like a rocket under apprentice Adam McLean who returns today, meaning with his 7lb claim, CFT runs off a puny weight and should go very very close if he runs up to the standard of his recent runs. In fact, I think he would need to run badly to not win this but I could be wrong, looks solid and a fair price too, despite what I said on Twitter, Ray of Joy being the big danger.
OPEN WATER looks a big price to me tomorrow. When pricing the runners up in my head (something I always do and advise doing yourself) I had OW closely matched with Mean It, with preference for the former as Mean It has only run on softish ground. Was surprised to see Mean It at 6/4 and Open Water at 5/1 and in my head at least this looks well worth taking advantage of. I could be totally wrong but Open Water should be too smart for these as he goes well enough fresh, his yard is in form, he is significantly dropped in grade and he has some really smart form to his name. He flopped last time but likes the quick ground and you feel this C4 race is a stepping stone to bigger things this season, can't see him beaten though may need the run, yet I fancy him to be too classy for the opposition. Was shocked to see he opened at 8/1, that's mad and rightly did not last long, but 5/1 is still great value to me.
Each-Way Lucky 15:
3.10 Bath - Cappelanus @ 7/1
3.40 Warwick - Amosite @ 16/1 WON
4.45 Bath - Finlodex @ 11/2
5.15 Bath - For Shia and Lula @ 6/1 WON
25p e/w pays £2136
Returned £40.75.
Returned £40.75.
Win bet Lucky 15:
2.40 Bath - Gin Time @ 10/3
5.05 Windsor - Open Water @ 5/1
5.20 Kempton - Climaxfortackle @ 3/1
5.25 Ffos Las - Simply a Legend @ 13/2
50p win pays £872
Coverbet single:
4.45 Bath - Spinning Ridge @ 16/1 e/w WON
Be Lucky today.
THT
Friday 3 May 2013
Friday 3rd May
Morning all, in a mad rush as usual on Friday so forgive the lack of explanations. Small stakes today for me as mostly for interest though I really fancy a few of these. Good Luck if you like the look of any of our picks and jump on.
Singles:
2.00 Musselburgh - Salvatore Fury @ 9/1 e/w
3.50 Chepstow - Stonecrabstomorrow @ 14/1 e/w Placed
7.00 Fontwell - Twin Bud @ 9/1 e/w
(also backed all horses in the following bets as win or e/w singles dependant on price)
Lucky 15 (1):
3.40 Lingfield - Rowe Park @ 5/1 Unplaced (Bad run, age catching up with him?)
4.10 Lingfield - Valdaw @ 9/4 Unplaced (Too much to do, didn't pick up too well anyway)
5.10 Lingfield - Fonterutoli @ 4/1
6.30 Fontwell - Fiftyonefiftyone @ 9/4
50p win returns £417
Lucky 15 (2):
3.00 Musselburgh - Gala Casino Star @ 12/1 Placed
3.10 Lingfield - Elegant Ophelia @ 9/1 Unplaced (Kirby gave up when had every chance)
4.10 Lingfield - Commanche @ 10/1 Unplaced (Made up ground but too much to do)
8.40 Dundalk - Johann Bach @ 12/1
25p e/w returns £6720
Good Luck all.
THT
Singles:
2.00 Musselburgh - Salvatore Fury @ 9/1 e/w
3.50 Chepstow - Stonecrabstomorrow @ 14/1 e/w Placed
7.00 Fontwell - Twin Bud @ 9/1 e/w
(also backed all horses in the following bets as win or e/w singles dependant on price)
Lucky 15 (1):
3.40 Lingfield - Rowe Park @ 5/1 Unplaced (Bad run, age catching up with him?)
4.10 Lingfield - Valdaw @ 9/4 Unplaced (Too much to do, didn't pick up too well anyway)
5.10 Lingfield - Fonterutoli @ 4/1
6.30 Fontwell - Fiftyonefiftyone @ 9/4
50p win returns £417
Lucky 15 (2):
3.00 Musselburgh - Gala Casino Star @ 12/1 Placed
3.10 Lingfield - Elegant Ophelia @ 9/1 Unplaced (Kirby gave up when had every chance)
4.10 Lingfield - Commanche @ 10/1 Unplaced (Made up ground but too much to do)
8.40 Dundalk - Johann Bach @ 12/1
25p e/w returns £6720
Good Luck all.
THT
Sunday 28 April 2013
Monday 29th April
The blog is back as I feel I have been a bit lazy recently and I know a lot of people appreciate explanations for the selections. If you like the look of any of these then best of luck to you and thankyou for taking the time to read our thoughts!
JACK OF DIAMONDS is a horse I am a great admirer of as my long term Twitter followers know. He is a horse of massive potential and I expect him to be winning plenty of races this season and is very much my main horse to follow whether he wins today or not. However I am very confident today despite a short priced favourite up against him. His trainer rates him very highly and expect to see this horse in much stronger races than this, this season. He finished a close up second on his reappearance after a 5 month break and went very well flying home late but just failing to catch the winner after suffering bad luck in running with the jockey having to haul him back and switch him outside well inside the final couple of furlongs which scuppered his chances. He will have come on for that run and has the fitness edge over most of these with the recent run under his belt. This race is weaker than the one he contested in last time and Robert Winston is back in the saddle today of which he is 1/2 on the horse, the other run a close up second on a surface he had never been tried on before (fibresand), beating some subsequent winners in the process. When you consider that this horse has finished 3 lengths off the pace in a class 2 race early in his career and just a neck off the pace in a class 3 after a 5 month break and for the other reasons mentioned, he begins to look a very appealing proposition indeed in a weakish class 4 at what looked a massive 9/2. He has been heavily backed and I first mentioned him much earlier today when he was 5/1 and I only managed to get 9/2 myself but he is best priced 4/1 at the time of writing but 3/1 and shortening in other places, so if you are going to back this horse, get on ASAP! The short priced favourite has also recieved some market support and all the money is coming for these two, in fact around 85% of the total money has been for just these two runners so it looks a two horse race. Net Whizz has only been right handed around A/W tracks in his short career and has already been beaten at prices of 5/6 and 13/8. He is however, open to plenty of improvement and obviously rates the main danger with Ryan Moore in the saddle for Jeremy Noseda but would not be taking 6/4 about him for this one. Saying that a few C and D winners in the race may prove good value and could get competitive. Come on Jack! (19.25 Lingfield) NAP
SCEPTICISM is worth another chance in my eyes. He has finished second the last twice which is off-putting, but having faith in yourself and horses you back is what it is all about. I backed him two races ago where he came 2nd at 6/1 but left him last time as I thought he was priced on the short side. Despite nicking 5 lengths out of the field he was caught inside the final furlong and probably went too hard under Joe Fanning in the early stages. He has been stepped back in trip slightly today which looks as if it will suit down to the ground as he weakened when he got lonely last time inside the final few hundred yards. Silvestre de Sousa also takes the ride for the first time so the in form Mark Johnston clearly means business and 7/2 looks a more than fair price for a horse whose turn must be right around the corner. Scepticism is usually prominently ridden and SDS is fantastic from the front; he judges pace really well. He is drawn 6 which isn't ideal but it could be worse and this looks the only concern in a race that he looks set out to win. (19.55 Lingfield) NB
DIOCLES has a tough task to overcome Sleep in First in the 4.10 Kelso tomorrow though I fancy him to end SIF's prolific run as he makes his handicap debut after a small break for the McCain yard who are slowly coming back to form after a quiet start to the year. I think he has shown enough in novice company to warrant a lot of respect off a potentially fair mark despite the fact he is giving a few pounds to the penalised Sleep in First. Jason Maguire won 4 races on Sunday and has a 43% strike rate for the owners of this horse and at the biggest price this horse has ever been available at, looks worth a small bet. 11/2.
STRIKER TORRES is worth a small bet as he is on a winning mark and drops to lowly 0-60 grade for the first time in his long career. Graham Lee in the saddle is certainly no negative and some past form suggests he will go well fresh, back from a four month break for this one. The favourite is getting all the money but at 6/1 ST is worth a small e/w stake as he should go close today and will be winning again soon. (Wolves 13.50)
I was at the races when ROCK SONG took my eye in the paddock after a long break, trying a new trip for his new trainer. He looked glorious and for some reason I didn't back him, knowing in my mind he was one of the best looking horses I had seen for some time. He took his time but got the hang of things beating some improving horses by nailing them all late on, to my displeasure! He will have come on for that run and Graham Lee returns for the ride in what looks a similar looking race, maybe slightly stronger this time but he can improve again and follow up as he will be sharper after his nice win over C and D two weeks ago; looks a very fair price too. (Wolves 15.20)
Despite being outsider of the field in a strong race I can;t ignore the fact that MIDNIGHT DREAM looks a massive price at 33/1. He can be forgiven his last run on turf on softer ground he wouldn't have liked against stronger opposition. (Fallon on board too!) His C and D form reads 222 losing out by 1L, 1/2L and a nose on those occasions. His other run at Wolves resulted in him winning over a trip a few hundred yards shorter than today's and his big price looks mad to me. I expect him to receive some e/w support and go off shorter than this but would be nice if he drifted! A strong race, yes, but forgiving his last run, he is far from a no hoper here and could spring a big shock, in terms of prices anyway. (16.50 Wolves)
IRONS ON FIRE is my final selection on Monday. (Lingfield 18.55) He went close last time on stable debut leading for most of the race until two got past in the final furlong. He responded well in the hood and is now running off a career-low mark and looks ready to strike, especially with Ryan Moore booked for the ride. Two of his three wins have been at this track and he is only one of two course winners in this weak yet open race, and he looks the one to be on at 3/1.
Overall:
NAP: Jack Of Diamonds @ 9/2
NB: Scepticism @ 7/2
NAP and NB double @ 23/1
Singles (small stakes advised):
Diocles @ 11/2 e/w
Striker Torres @ 6/1 e/w
Rock Song @ 11/2
Midnight Dream @ 33/1 e/w
Irons On Fire @ 3/1
Longshot e/w Double (small stake advised):
Diocles and Striker Torres @ 44.5/1
Lucky 15:
Jack Of Diamonds, Scepticism, Rock Song, Irons on Fire.
Returns £1473 for a £1 win stake.
Good Luck all, tell us what you think and tell us your fancies @THTRacing on twitter.
THT
JACK OF DIAMONDS is a horse I am a great admirer of as my long term Twitter followers know. He is a horse of massive potential and I expect him to be winning plenty of races this season and is very much my main horse to follow whether he wins today or not. However I am very confident today despite a short priced favourite up against him. His trainer rates him very highly and expect to see this horse in much stronger races than this, this season. He finished a close up second on his reappearance after a 5 month break and went very well flying home late but just failing to catch the winner after suffering bad luck in running with the jockey having to haul him back and switch him outside well inside the final couple of furlongs which scuppered his chances. He will have come on for that run and has the fitness edge over most of these with the recent run under his belt. This race is weaker than the one he contested in last time and Robert Winston is back in the saddle today of which he is 1/2 on the horse, the other run a close up second on a surface he had never been tried on before (fibresand), beating some subsequent winners in the process. When you consider that this horse has finished 3 lengths off the pace in a class 2 race early in his career and just a neck off the pace in a class 3 after a 5 month break and for the other reasons mentioned, he begins to look a very appealing proposition indeed in a weakish class 4 at what looked a massive 9/2. He has been heavily backed and I first mentioned him much earlier today when he was 5/1 and I only managed to get 9/2 myself but he is best priced 4/1 at the time of writing but 3/1 and shortening in other places, so if you are going to back this horse, get on ASAP! The short priced favourite has also recieved some market support and all the money is coming for these two, in fact around 85% of the total money has been for just these two runners so it looks a two horse race. Net Whizz has only been right handed around A/W tracks in his short career and has already been beaten at prices of 5/6 and 13/8. He is however, open to plenty of improvement and obviously rates the main danger with Ryan Moore in the saddle for Jeremy Noseda but would not be taking 6/4 about him for this one. Saying that a few C and D winners in the race may prove good value and could get competitive. Come on Jack! (19.25 Lingfield) NAP
SCEPTICISM is worth another chance in my eyes. He has finished second the last twice which is off-putting, but having faith in yourself and horses you back is what it is all about. I backed him two races ago where he came 2nd at 6/1 but left him last time as I thought he was priced on the short side. Despite nicking 5 lengths out of the field he was caught inside the final furlong and probably went too hard under Joe Fanning in the early stages. He has been stepped back in trip slightly today which looks as if it will suit down to the ground as he weakened when he got lonely last time inside the final few hundred yards. Silvestre de Sousa also takes the ride for the first time so the in form Mark Johnston clearly means business and 7/2 looks a more than fair price for a horse whose turn must be right around the corner. Scepticism is usually prominently ridden and SDS is fantastic from the front; he judges pace really well. He is drawn 6 which isn't ideal but it could be worse and this looks the only concern in a race that he looks set out to win. (19.55 Lingfield) NB
DIOCLES has a tough task to overcome Sleep in First in the 4.10 Kelso tomorrow though I fancy him to end SIF's prolific run as he makes his handicap debut after a small break for the McCain yard who are slowly coming back to form after a quiet start to the year. I think he has shown enough in novice company to warrant a lot of respect off a potentially fair mark despite the fact he is giving a few pounds to the penalised Sleep in First. Jason Maguire won 4 races on Sunday and has a 43% strike rate for the owners of this horse and at the biggest price this horse has ever been available at, looks worth a small bet. 11/2.
STRIKER TORRES is worth a small bet as he is on a winning mark and drops to lowly 0-60 grade for the first time in his long career. Graham Lee in the saddle is certainly no negative and some past form suggests he will go well fresh, back from a four month break for this one. The favourite is getting all the money but at 6/1 ST is worth a small e/w stake as he should go close today and will be winning again soon. (Wolves 13.50)
I was at the races when ROCK SONG took my eye in the paddock after a long break, trying a new trip for his new trainer. He looked glorious and for some reason I didn't back him, knowing in my mind he was one of the best looking horses I had seen for some time. He took his time but got the hang of things beating some improving horses by nailing them all late on, to my displeasure! He will have come on for that run and Graham Lee returns for the ride in what looks a similar looking race, maybe slightly stronger this time but he can improve again and follow up as he will be sharper after his nice win over C and D two weeks ago; looks a very fair price too. (Wolves 15.20)
Despite being outsider of the field in a strong race I can;t ignore the fact that MIDNIGHT DREAM looks a massive price at 33/1. He can be forgiven his last run on turf on softer ground he wouldn't have liked against stronger opposition. (Fallon on board too!) His C and D form reads 222 losing out by 1L, 1/2L and a nose on those occasions. His other run at Wolves resulted in him winning over a trip a few hundred yards shorter than today's and his big price looks mad to me. I expect him to receive some e/w support and go off shorter than this but would be nice if he drifted! A strong race, yes, but forgiving his last run, he is far from a no hoper here and could spring a big shock, in terms of prices anyway. (16.50 Wolves)
IRONS ON FIRE is my final selection on Monday. (Lingfield 18.55) He went close last time on stable debut leading for most of the race until two got past in the final furlong. He responded well in the hood and is now running off a career-low mark and looks ready to strike, especially with Ryan Moore booked for the ride. Two of his three wins have been at this track and he is only one of two course winners in this weak yet open race, and he looks the one to be on at 3/1.
Overall:
NAP: Jack Of Diamonds @ 9/2
NB: Scepticism @ 7/2
NAP and NB double @ 23/1
Singles (small stakes advised):
Diocles @ 11/2 e/w
Striker Torres @ 6/1 e/w
Rock Song @ 11/2
Midnight Dream @ 33/1 e/w
Irons On Fire @ 3/1
Longshot e/w Double (small stake advised):
Diocles and Striker Torres @ 44.5/1
Lucky 15:
Jack Of Diamonds, Scepticism, Rock Song, Irons on Fire.
Returns £1473 for a £1 win stake.
Good Luck all, tell us what you think and tell us your fancies @THTRacing on twitter.
THT
Monday 15 April 2013
Monday 15th April
Morning all, not too many we like today but quite confident that all of these are overpriced and will be shorter at the off, maybe with the exception of our 25/1 e/w fancy. Get on now, good luck.
Single:
Newcastle 6.00 - Harare @ 25/1 - The veteran makes his comeback in a weak race on a winning mark and looks a massive price, defeinitely worth a a small e/w stake as he won't just be here to make up the numbers.
Lucky 15:
Windsor 2.50 - My Son Max @ 4/1 - Heavily backed when returning to winning ways last time after a string of consistent performances since being dropped to the minimum trip. Sure to go well again on turf as he is on a 2lb lower mark than last race and the useful Robert Tart claim only aids his cause, looks likely to go off favourite, and rightly so, hard to beat.
Redcar 3.40 - Azrael @ 4/1 - Azrael is an admirably consistent performer that always runs his race and was a deserved winner last time at Yarmouth when he made all the running. Despite a penalty he remains well-treated on his best form and looks to have a great chance in today's race despite a big gamble on the likely favourite Destiny Blue.
Windsor 4.50 - Shamir @ 10/1 - This looks a big price and money is coming, he is already 7's or 8's in some places, but 10/1 widely available at time of writing. He runs in high quality races on the all-weather and a fantastic effort last time makes the price look very appealing as he runs off a 14lb lower mark today back on turf which is a massive difference. While he may be better suited on the A/W, he will go very close today and will go off at half this price imo.
Windsor 5.20 - Bernisdale @ 4/1 - Bernisdale ran a great race when eased inside the final furlong under returning jockey Jamie Spencer. He got going too late over a sharper trip last time, staying on strongly close home. He is a C and D winner, winning twice here last year and looks to have a great chance today. The jockey has a 67% strike rate when riding for John Flint and despite Burnham being a big danger, our fancy is sure to be there at the business end.
Single:
Harare @ 25/1 e/w
Lucky 15:
Bernisdale, My Son Max, Azrael, Shamir.
Returns £2850 for a £1 win stake.
Good Luck all.
THT
Single:
Newcastle 6.00 - Harare @ 25/1 - The veteran makes his comeback in a weak race on a winning mark and looks a massive price, defeinitely worth a a small e/w stake as he won't just be here to make up the numbers.
Lucky 15:
Windsor 2.50 - My Son Max @ 4/1 - Heavily backed when returning to winning ways last time after a string of consistent performances since being dropped to the minimum trip. Sure to go well again on turf as he is on a 2lb lower mark than last race and the useful Robert Tart claim only aids his cause, looks likely to go off favourite, and rightly so, hard to beat.
Redcar 3.40 - Azrael @ 4/1 - Azrael is an admirably consistent performer that always runs his race and was a deserved winner last time at Yarmouth when he made all the running. Despite a penalty he remains well-treated on his best form and looks to have a great chance in today's race despite a big gamble on the likely favourite Destiny Blue.
Windsor 4.50 - Shamir @ 10/1 - This looks a big price and money is coming, he is already 7's or 8's in some places, but 10/1 widely available at time of writing. He runs in high quality races on the all-weather and a fantastic effort last time makes the price look very appealing as he runs off a 14lb lower mark today back on turf which is a massive difference. While he may be better suited on the A/W, he will go very close today and will go off at half this price imo.
Windsor 5.20 - Bernisdale @ 4/1 - Bernisdale ran a great race when eased inside the final furlong under returning jockey Jamie Spencer. He got going too late over a sharper trip last time, staying on strongly close home. He is a C and D winner, winning twice here last year and looks to have a great chance today. The jockey has a 67% strike rate when riding for John Flint and despite Burnham being a big danger, our fancy is sure to be there at the business end.
Single:
Harare @ 25/1 e/w
Lucky 15:
Bernisdale, My Son Max, Azrael, Shamir.
Returns £2850 for a £1 win stake.
Good Luck all.
THT
Friday 12 April 2013
Friday 12th April
Morning all, today's selections are as follows:
Singles:
3.00 Lingfield - The Happy Hammer @ 20/1 e/w
4.10 Lingfield - Dishy Guru @ 12/1 e/w
5.20 Lingfield - Tefflah @ 8/1 e/w
7.00 Wolves - Yankee Storm @ 4/1 NB
8.00 Wolves - McBirney @ 8/1 e/w
9.00 Wolves - Restless Bay @ 3/1 NAP
Doubles:
Restless Bay and Purcell @ 15/2
Restless Bay and Yankee Storm @ 19/1
Treble:
Restless Bay, Purcell, Yankee Storm @ 41/1
Good Luck all.
THT
Singles:
3.00 Lingfield - The Happy Hammer @ 20/1 e/w
4.10 Lingfield - Dishy Guru @ 12/1 e/w
5.20 Lingfield - Tefflah @ 8/1 e/w
7.00 Wolves - Yankee Storm @ 4/1 NB
8.00 Wolves - McBirney @ 8/1 e/w
9.00 Wolves - Restless Bay @ 3/1 NAP
Doubles:
Restless Bay and Purcell @ 15/2
Restless Bay and Yankee Storm @ 19/1
Treble:
Restless Bay, Purcell, Yankee Storm @ 41/1
Good Luck all.
THT
Thursday 11 April 2013
Thursday 11th April
Morning all. Today's bets are as follows.
Singles:
19.00 Kempton - Lily Edge @ 25/1 e/w
19.30 Kempton - Icebuster @ 6/1 e/w NAP
Value Double:
19.30 Kempton - Icebuster
20.00 Kempton - Llamadas
Pays 41/1.
£1 Lucky 15:
16.55 Kempton - Officer In Command
19.30 Kempton - Icebuster
20.00 Kempton - Llamadas
20.30 Kempton - Amosite
Pays just over £1600.
Good Luck all.
THT
Singles:
19.00 Kempton - Lily Edge @ 25/1 e/w
19.30 Kempton - Icebuster @ 6/1 e/w NAP
Value Double:
19.30 Kempton - Icebuster
20.00 Kempton - Llamadas
Pays 41/1.
£1 Lucky 15:
16.55 Kempton - Officer In Command
19.30 Kempton - Icebuster
20.00 Kempton - Llamadas
20.30 Kempton - Amosite
Pays just over £1600.
Good Luck all.
THT
Sunday 7 April 2013
Monday 8th April
A couple of nice little cards on the all-weather tracks at Kempton and Wolverhampton on Monday. Going to the races at Wolverhampton for the first time tomorrow and I am delighted with the card, some really nice little races and a few horses I like including my lucky horse Lucky Dan who I will probably back when I get there as I always do. Despite it being a Monday afternoon on the A/W I am still excited and can't wait to get there and hopefully pick some winners. Will save most of my bets for on the course but have already had a few bets and they are below. Will update what I am doing and why from the course tomorrow through the afternoon for those interested!
Horses to Watch:
Some very interesting runners who I will be keeping an eye on tomorrow. I may even have tiny win bets on them, haven't decided yet. They are the following:
Kempton 14.20 - Luv U Honey - This one is a half sister to four winners, most recognisably is probably Luv U Whatever who has been winning some races recently. Could go close on debut as two out of four siblings won as two year olds. Looks like it will open up around the 10/1 mark which could be worth a little e/w bet though only two places paid with the odds on fav likely to fill one of them.
Wolves 16.10 - Gin Time - Most will be familiar with the silks and name of this one. Lager Time and Vodka time are others with similar names for the David Evans team. Gin Time went well on debut and despite being a bit green stayed on towards the end although was a few lengths behind the winner. She is sent out for a try on the all weather today in a weaker race and should have a good chance with normal improvement expected. The likely favourite is another David Evans horse who was third at Kempton last month. Kodafine also stayed on very well, arguably better than anything and an Evans one-two looks likely, thought Vodka Chaser wouldn't surprise anyone if he was good enough on debut. Just interested to see the outcome of this race, not having a bet.
Kempton 16.20 - Poetic Verse - Looking back, this horse was overpriced for his last race when he stayed on better than anything under a powerful Atzeni ride, though easy to say knowing result! That race looks stronger than this one too and despite the fact that everything fell into place for him that day he is probably a little overpriced in this one too given none of the opposition have won over this distance. Huge early money for Botti horse but Poetic Verse has every chance of going close again, this time with Ryan Moore in the saddle. At 6/1 at time of writing, a small each way bet looks worthwhile yet only small stakes.
Wolves 16.40 - Harrogate Fair - Exposed but has won here before and could get involved and ultimately looks a tad overpriced despite only 2 places paid. A tiny e/w bet could be worthwhile but still undecided, yet this horse went in for us at 14/1 a while back so am happy to give another go. 20/1
Kempton 17.20 - Sand Grouse - This Botti horse ran only three days ago when forth in a stronger race over 7f. Connections have sent him out again very quickly at a shorter trip and he looks to be a bit overpriced, which isn't a surprise given he has been a beaten favourite on a few occasions. Not betting but interested to see how he goes. Early indications suggest around a 7/1 - 8/1 pricetag, something like that but can't be sure as limited markets available at time of writing.
Horses to Back:
On to my bets for the day. As I said will update any additions from the course tomorrow but have done a few tonight that you may be interested in.
Sam Spade looks worth another chance as he has been quickly sent back out by connections after being well backed last time and just failing over course and distance. He still has plenty of improvement in him and his last run was his best run yet and Ryan Moore takes over the reigns today. Whether connections weren't happy with his ride by Richard Hughes last time I don't know but a swift reappearance and jockey change mean this could be the case. When a horse is heavily backed and only loses by a neck he is probably worth sticking with and this is another weak looking affair and goes into a multiple or two. Beau Select is a big danger and overpriced as he went very close over track and trip in February and an eachway coverbet on him is something worth doing at 8/1. 15.50 Kempton.
West Leake is an admirably consistent horse and runs in a very competitive race at Kempton tomorrow. One of nine C and D winners in the decent field, he is currently the joint favourite at 5/1. His 2212 form could easily read 1111 as he has only gone down by 3/4L or less on all three occasions in defeat. He stays on well but sometimes gets going slightly too late but is worth a decent each way stake at the prices. I could play it safe and look at the place market but I genuinely think he has a great chance of winning so going for the slightly bigger payout by going e/w. This ensures you get your money back should he only manage a place which I am confident he will unless he runs a shocker or runs into a lot of trouble in-running. Midnight Feast looks a danger as he was a close third off a lowering mark in blinkers last time and a lot of money has come for him already with Luke Morris in the saddle. Connor Dore's horses are in good order and despite some uninspiring form, Satwa Laird could get involved too. 16.50.
Thomas Brown can maintain his astonishing 100% strike rate for Ismail Mohammed tomorrow on likely favourite Admiralty. He won comfortably on his reappearance from a four month winter break and will be even sharper today. He is in cracking form and won the last time he was here. One of only two C and D winners in the race, the other being Guru of Gloom, he has a great chance of completing a hattrick and probably won't be finished at three on the bounce should he achieve that. Threats include the well punted Peace Seeker who shaped well on his return and was heavily backed. He will give Admiralty a race at least but I have every faith Admiralty is the one to beat. I am having a coverbet however, on a horse already mentioned. The Guru of Gloom as I said is the only other C and D winner and looks massive at 16/1 and could run a big race. He has a great chance of running into the places at least in my opinion as he is 1/1 at the course in the past year or so.
Top Trail is one I pondered over as his win last time was nothing that special. Saying that he did beat an odds on favourite by a fair distance and that was his return run from a six month break so actually it may have been more impressive than it looks on paper. He faces similar class opposition on Monday though Hazard Warning is a danger. He has won his last two over C and D and I am surprised his price isn't as closely matched with the favourite yet that shows there is already plenty of market confidence in our pick. Saying that, HW has been raised 17lb in the process of those wins and might just find our fancy too strong today as Top Trail will be a lot sharper for his easy reappearance win. 16.40.
Singles:
Wolves 15.10 - The Guru of Gloom @ 16/1 e/w (coverbet) Placed
Kempton 15.50 - Beau Select @ 8/1 e/w (coverbet) Placed
Double:
Sam Spade and Admiralty @ 5/1 WON
Trebles:
Sam Spade, Admiralty, Top Trail, West Leake.
Be Lucky everyone, will likely have a little flutter on each race as I will be at the track, will update best I can. Good Luck if you fancy any of our picks and decide to do them yourself! You may want to do a forecast with our coverbets or an e/w double but above is just what I have done!
THT
Horses to Watch:
Some very interesting runners who I will be keeping an eye on tomorrow. I may even have tiny win bets on them, haven't decided yet. They are the following:
Kempton 14.20 - Luv U Honey - This one is a half sister to four winners, most recognisably is probably Luv U Whatever who has been winning some races recently. Could go close on debut as two out of four siblings won as two year olds. Looks like it will open up around the 10/1 mark which could be worth a little e/w bet though only two places paid with the odds on fav likely to fill one of them.
Wolves 16.10 - Gin Time - Most will be familiar with the silks and name of this one. Lager Time and Vodka time are others with similar names for the David Evans team. Gin Time went well on debut and despite being a bit green stayed on towards the end although was a few lengths behind the winner. She is sent out for a try on the all weather today in a weaker race and should have a good chance with normal improvement expected. The likely favourite is another David Evans horse who was third at Kempton last month. Kodafine also stayed on very well, arguably better than anything and an Evans one-two looks likely, thought Vodka Chaser wouldn't surprise anyone if he was good enough on debut. Just interested to see the outcome of this race, not having a bet.
Kempton 16.20 - Poetic Verse - Looking back, this horse was overpriced for his last race when he stayed on better than anything under a powerful Atzeni ride, though easy to say knowing result! That race looks stronger than this one too and despite the fact that everything fell into place for him that day he is probably a little overpriced in this one too given none of the opposition have won over this distance. Huge early money for Botti horse but Poetic Verse has every chance of going close again, this time with Ryan Moore in the saddle. At 6/1 at time of writing, a small each way bet looks worthwhile yet only small stakes.
Wolves 16.40 - Harrogate Fair - Exposed but has won here before and could get involved and ultimately looks a tad overpriced despite only 2 places paid. A tiny e/w bet could be worthwhile but still undecided, yet this horse went in for us at 14/1 a while back so am happy to give another go. 20/1
Kempton 17.20 - Sand Grouse - This Botti horse ran only three days ago when forth in a stronger race over 7f. Connections have sent him out again very quickly at a shorter trip and he looks to be a bit overpriced, which isn't a surprise given he has been a beaten favourite on a few occasions. Not betting but interested to see how he goes. Early indications suggest around a 7/1 - 8/1 pricetag, something like that but can't be sure as limited markets available at time of writing.
Horses to Back:
On to my bets for the day. As I said will update any additions from the course tomorrow but have done a few tonight that you may be interested in.
Sam Spade looks worth another chance as he has been quickly sent back out by connections after being well backed last time and just failing over course and distance. He still has plenty of improvement in him and his last run was his best run yet and Ryan Moore takes over the reigns today. Whether connections weren't happy with his ride by Richard Hughes last time I don't know but a swift reappearance and jockey change mean this could be the case. When a horse is heavily backed and only loses by a neck he is probably worth sticking with and this is another weak looking affair and goes into a multiple or two. Beau Select is a big danger and overpriced as he went very close over track and trip in February and an eachway coverbet on him is something worth doing at 8/1. 15.50 Kempton.
West Leake is an admirably consistent horse and runs in a very competitive race at Kempton tomorrow. One of nine C and D winners in the decent field, he is currently the joint favourite at 5/1. His 2212 form could easily read 1111 as he has only gone down by 3/4L or less on all three occasions in defeat. He stays on well but sometimes gets going slightly too late but is worth a decent each way stake at the prices. I could play it safe and look at the place market but I genuinely think he has a great chance of winning so going for the slightly bigger payout by going e/w. This ensures you get your money back should he only manage a place which I am confident he will unless he runs a shocker or runs into a lot of trouble in-running. Midnight Feast looks a danger as he was a close third off a lowering mark in blinkers last time and a lot of money has come for him already with Luke Morris in the saddle. Connor Dore's horses are in good order and despite some uninspiring form, Satwa Laird could get involved too. 16.50.
Thomas Brown can maintain his astonishing 100% strike rate for Ismail Mohammed tomorrow on likely favourite Admiralty. He won comfortably on his reappearance from a four month winter break and will be even sharper today. He is in cracking form and won the last time he was here. One of only two C and D winners in the race, the other being Guru of Gloom, he has a great chance of completing a hattrick and probably won't be finished at three on the bounce should he achieve that. Threats include the well punted Peace Seeker who shaped well on his return and was heavily backed. He will give Admiralty a race at least but I have every faith Admiralty is the one to beat. I am having a coverbet however, on a horse already mentioned. The Guru of Gloom as I said is the only other C and D winner and looks massive at 16/1 and could run a big race. He has a great chance of running into the places at least in my opinion as he is 1/1 at the course in the past year or so.
Top Trail is one I pondered over as his win last time was nothing that special. Saying that he did beat an odds on favourite by a fair distance and that was his return run from a six month break so actually it may have been more impressive than it looks on paper. He faces similar class opposition on Monday though Hazard Warning is a danger. He has won his last two over C and D and I am surprised his price isn't as closely matched with the favourite yet that shows there is already plenty of market confidence in our pick. Saying that, HW has been raised 17lb in the process of those wins and might just find our fancy too strong today as Top Trail will be a lot sharper for his easy reappearance win. 16.40.
Singles:
Wolves 15.10 - The Guru of Gloom @ 16/1 e/w (coverbet) Placed
Kempton 15.50 - Beau Select @ 8/1 e/w (coverbet) Placed
Double:
Sam Spade and Admiralty @ 5/1 WON
Trebles:
Sam Spade, Admiralty, Top Trail, West Leake.
Be Lucky everyone, will likely have a little flutter on each race as I will be at the track, will update best I can. Good Luck if you fancy any of our picks and decide to do them yourself! You may want to do a forecast with our coverbets or an e/w double but above is just what I have done!
THT
Friday 5 April 2013
Saturday 6th April
Morning all. Back very late from work so please once again excuse the fact there are no write ups. You can trust the same amount of effort has gone into the picks as always but I will be up all night if I do a full write up on every race. We haven't got lazy! What I would say though is my long term followers know a horse called Jack Of Diamonds means a lot to me and I have been waiting five months for his return and he is back today!! However he is entered in an ultra competitive race and will have to run to his best to win. He is still very young and has bags of potential and will give it a great go and should go well fresh. Would make my day if he won, but will be happy nonetheless. He is 8/1 at the time of writing so I am backing e/w. He will win plenty of races this flat season and is very much one to follow. Here goes:
Lingfield 14.25 - Tepmokea @ 7/1 e/w
Aintree 14.50 - African Gold @ 9/1 e/w
Lingfield 16.45 - Jack Of Diamonds @ 8/1 e/w
Also having an each way trixie on the three which pays £2539.38 for a £2.50 e/w stake.
Aintree 15.25 - Problema Tic @ 14/1 e/w
The Grand National:
After much debate I have whittled my picks down to three. Backing one of the shorter prices, a middle priced horse and an outsider but also had tiny e/w stakes on Any Currency and Rainbow Hunter for sentimental reasons. Being totally honest the three below are all horses I would love to win for racing reasons or the fact the horses/owners/trainers mean something to me personally. With that in mind you may want to look elsewhere but they are just the three I have backed myself, just thought you should know! There are probably horses with better chances on form etc but there you go, just the way I have decided to do it. My old man keeps telling me Chicago Grey will win though...
Seabass @ 12/1 - Third in this last year and would be great for racing if Katie Walsh could win for her Dad, Ted. As well as making history, the Walsh's sadly lost a horse just two days ago here at this meeting and winning the Grand National would be just brilliant, I want this horse to win so badly, and he is sure to run very well.
Roberto Goldback @ 25/1 - Would be fitting for Nicky Henderson to win the National, something he has never achieved, after the great week he has had. All his horses in top nick, the mighty Sprinter Sacre dominating a class field over a longer distance than he is used to and with the trainers championship heading back to his yard for the first time in god knows how long this would really be the icing on the cake.
Big Fella Thanks @ 60/1. I love this horse and something tells me he can run a massive race. Whether he can really win this I am not so sure, but I think he has fair place claims, and would really love him to go well.
So there you are. Despite the fact we may have backed the horses for the wrong reasons, they are the three picks nonetheless. You must agree, one of theses winning, especially Seabass would be great for racing as a whole. Not as great for racing however, as the 40 brave warriors and their jockeys all coming home safe. Wouldn't that just be a dream? Seabass winning and no fatalities in what in recent years has become the graveyard for some fantastic horses. Please dear God let the jockeys end the night in their own beds and the horses in their own stables. And most of all, enjoy the ultimate test of human and equine stamina, bravery and courage. It is sure to be a cracker. Good Luck all.
NB: A 50p e/w Lucky 15 on our trixie horses and Seabass pays £6k+.
THT
Lingfield 14.25 - Tepmokea @ 7/1 e/w
Aintree 14.50 - African Gold @ 9/1 e/w
Lingfield 16.45 - Jack Of Diamonds @ 8/1 e/w
Also having an each way trixie on the three which pays £2539.38 for a £2.50 e/w stake.
Aintree 15.25 - Problema Tic @ 14/1 e/w
The Grand National:
After much debate I have whittled my picks down to three. Backing one of the shorter prices, a middle priced horse and an outsider but also had tiny e/w stakes on Any Currency and Rainbow Hunter for sentimental reasons. Being totally honest the three below are all horses I would love to win for racing reasons or the fact the horses/owners/trainers mean something to me personally. With that in mind you may want to look elsewhere but they are just the three I have backed myself, just thought you should know! There are probably horses with better chances on form etc but there you go, just the way I have decided to do it. My old man keeps telling me Chicago Grey will win though...
Seabass @ 12/1 - Third in this last year and would be great for racing if Katie Walsh could win for her Dad, Ted. As well as making history, the Walsh's sadly lost a horse just two days ago here at this meeting and winning the Grand National would be just brilliant, I want this horse to win so badly, and he is sure to run very well.
Roberto Goldback @ 25/1 - Would be fitting for Nicky Henderson to win the National, something he has never achieved, after the great week he has had. All his horses in top nick, the mighty Sprinter Sacre dominating a class field over a longer distance than he is used to and with the trainers championship heading back to his yard for the first time in god knows how long this would really be the icing on the cake.
Big Fella Thanks @ 60/1. I love this horse and something tells me he can run a massive race. Whether he can really win this I am not so sure, but I think he has fair place claims, and would really love him to go well.
So there you are. Despite the fact we may have backed the horses for the wrong reasons, they are the three picks nonetheless. You must agree, one of theses winning, especially Seabass would be great for racing as a whole. Not as great for racing however, as the 40 brave warriors and their jockeys all coming home safe. Wouldn't that just be a dream? Seabass winning and no fatalities in what in recent years has become the graveyard for some fantastic horses. Please dear God let the jockeys end the night in their own beds and the horses in their own stables. And most of all, enjoy the ultimate test of human and equine stamina, bravery and courage. It is sure to be a cracker. Good Luck all.
NB: A 50p e/w Lucky 15 on our trixie horses and Seabass pays £6k+.
THT
Thursday 4 April 2013
Friday 5th April
Very frustrating day yesterday for many reasons, would prefer to just move on. Earned plenty of place money and our NAP won at 5/2 but except from that it was certainly not our best day! On to Friday:
Actonetaketwo consistently runs eyecatchers and should have won her last three. She takes his time to get into stride but when she gets going there is no stopping her, she flies home. She has finished third two of the last three runs behind Sand Grouse about half a length on one occasion. However Sand Grouse has had his chances and may have to settle for second best behind this young filly as he was weakeneing while AOTT was closing rapidly. The jockeys' claim further aids her cause and when I saw Sand Grouse was almost evens and our girl was 5/2 I was very surprised. In time a step up in trip will suit, but the trainer has every right and expectation that the C and D winner can get at least one more win at 7f under her belt in this weak looking race.
Free Thinking stands out for me in the flat race at Aintree tomorrow. The Henderson trained 5yo looks overpriced at 10/1 in my opinion. He was beaten by two of these last time but that was on heavy ground which this horse isn't suited by. That said he rallied gamely late on to grab third place some 8 lengths behind todays opposition. The quicker ground will be ideal for this horse as shown by his rout of rivals on his debut on the A/W. He wasn't so convincing the next time on soft ground but still won, gamely holding off a late charge, and he was well fancied that day too and started fairly long odds on. I really fancy him to run a big race tomorrow and at 10/1 is a cracking each way bet.
14.00 Aintree - My Tent or Yous will win but no value in backing him as a win bet. The distance market offers up some value and I fancy over 10L winning distance at 7/2 as he is a class above these.
14.30 Aintree - Dynaste is the obvious strating point for me. Always felt he was a horse with too much hype surrounding him and although second, he was a disappointment to a lot of people who had him down as a banker of the festival. Nicholls horse will go well as will Super Duty, in fact he will probably win as I backed him at Chelt when he went down by a head and not backing him this time. I think Vino Griego is a very fair price at 8/1. He stays the distance well as shown by his powerful finish when beating some good horses on his recent run over 3m. His latest run was at Cheltenham which I know wasn't a great omen on day one but he ran well staying on best but couldn't catch the winner, finishing a creditable second. The ground drying may be a worry but some of his competitors are also better suited by softer going. Worth a small e/w bet of interest anyway imo.
15.05 Aintree - Sprinter Sacre will be winning I pray and hope, mainly for connections sake as I hope they have a long term plan. If they are just seeing whether he can handle another 4f then that is wrong imo, but The King George and maybe the Gold Cup one day seem plausible targets. But who knows we may find out tomorrow. Had a very interesting debate on Twitter last night into the early hourse, enough been said I think. Who will follow him home? Who knows but I will be laughing if it is the Mad Moose as he is one of my favourite horses and have backed him at 250/1 e/w as I always have done and always will. Stranger things have happened, believe it or not! Part of that price is based on whether he refuses to race or not as he can be a tricky customer like when I backed him at Chelt and quietly fancied him to run a big race! Anyway come on Sprinter Sacre, please win.
15.40 Aintree - Races like this are a lottery and I generally avoid but I have been told to back Criqtonic by a reliable source e/w so I have, end of story.
16.15 Aintree - Staying loyal to Master Of The Sea in this one. At Fisher's Cross as short as he wants to be given he is only proven on sfoter going and McCoy loves laying those favourites. MOTS lost nothing in defeat at Cheltenham and won last time he was here. Don't expect him to win this but I think he has a very fair chance of placing and the price looks fair enough.
16.50 Aintree - Kyhber Kim still has a touch of class despite the fact she isn't getting any younger. I like this horse a lot and she has solid e/w claims in a weaker race than she usually contests. She is a C and D winner too and the old girl has another big race in her and Geraghty back on board is a plus. Not having Broadway Buffalo in this race one little bit though Cotton Mill should go much better than recent showings and has a huge chance.
14.00 Aintree - My Tent Or Yours to win by 10L+ @ 7/2
14.30 Aintree - Vino Griego @ 8/1 e/w
15.40 Aintree - Criqtonic @ 25/1 e/w
16.15 Aintree - Master Of The Sea @ 8/1 e/w
16.50 Aintree - Khyber Kim @ 16/1 e/w
17.25 Aintree - Free Thinking @ 10/1 e/w
17.55 Wolves - Actonetaketwo @ 5/2
No value at either A/W meetings for me except the one pick which is about as short as we back for a single. (The Sedgefield card was one of the worst I have ever seen) Plenty of the favs should be winning at Aintree and everyone will have their accumulators on the favs for sure, although if you fancy some value, why not go for the same picks as me? Tell us what you think on Twitter @THTRacing.
THT
Actonetaketwo consistently runs eyecatchers and should have won her last three. She takes his time to get into stride but when she gets going there is no stopping her, she flies home. She has finished third two of the last three runs behind Sand Grouse about half a length on one occasion. However Sand Grouse has had his chances and may have to settle for second best behind this young filly as he was weakeneing while AOTT was closing rapidly. The jockeys' claim further aids her cause and when I saw Sand Grouse was almost evens and our girl was 5/2 I was very surprised. In time a step up in trip will suit, but the trainer has every right and expectation that the C and D winner can get at least one more win at 7f under her belt in this weak looking race.
Free Thinking stands out for me in the flat race at Aintree tomorrow. The Henderson trained 5yo looks overpriced at 10/1 in my opinion. He was beaten by two of these last time but that was on heavy ground which this horse isn't suited by. That said he rallied gamely late on to grab third place some 8 lengths behind todays opposition. The quicker ground will be ideal for this horse as shown by his rout of rivals on his debut on the A/W. He wasn't so convincing the next time on soft ground but still won, gamely holding off a late charge, and he was well fancied that day too and started fairly long odds on. I really fancy him to run a big race tomorrow and at 10/1 is a cracking each way bet.
14.00 Aintree - My Tent or Yous will win but no value in backing him as a win bet. The distance market offers up some value and I fancy over 10L winning distance at 7/2 as he is a class above these.
14.30 Aintree - Dynaste is the obvious strating point for me. Always felt he was a horse with too much hype surrounding him and although second, he was a disappointment to a lot of people who had him down as a banker of the festival. Nicholls horse will go well as will Super Duty, in fact he will probably win as I backed him at Chelt when he went down by a head and not backing him this time. I think Vino Griego is a very fair price at 8/1. He stays the distance well as shown by his powerful finish when beating some good horses on his recent run over 3m. His latest run was at Cheltenham which I know wasn't a great omen on day one but he ran well staying on best but couldn't catch the winner, finishing a creditable second. The ground drying may be a worry but some of his competitors are also better suited by softer going. Worth a small e/w bet of interest anyway imo.
15.05 Aintree - Sprinter Sacre will be winning I pray and hope, mainly for connections sake as I hope they have a long term plan. If they are just seeing whether he can handle another 4f then that is wrong imo, but The King George and maybe the Gold Cup one day seem plausible targets. But who knows we may find out tomorrow. Had a very interesting debate on Twitter last night into the early hourse, enough been said I think. Who will follow him home? Who knows but I will be laughing if it is the Mad Moose as he is one of my favourite horses and have backed him at 250/1 e/w as I always have done and always will. Stranger things have happened, believe it or not! Part of that price is based on whether he refuses to race or not as he can be a tricky customer like when I backed him at Chelt and quietly fancied him to run a big race! Anyway come on Sprinter Sacre, please win.
15.40 Aintree - Races like this are a lottery and I generally avoid but I have been told to back Criqtonic by a reliable source e/w so I have, end of story.
16.15 Aintree - Staying loyal to Master Of The Sea in this one. At Fisher's Cross as short as he wants to be given he is only proven on sfoter going and McCoy loves laying those favourites. MOTS lost nothing in defeat at Cheltenham and won last time he was here. Don't expect him to win this but I think he has a very fair chance of placing and the price looks fair enough.
16.50 Aintree - Kyhber Kim still has a touch of class despite the fact she isn't getting any younger. I like this horse a lot and she has solid e/w claims in a weaker race than she usually contests. She is a C and D winner too and the old girl has another big race in her and Geraghty back on board is a plus. Not having Broadway Buffalo in this race one little bit though Cotton Mill should go much better than recent showings and has a huge chance.
14.00 Aintree - My Tent Or Yours to win by 10L+ @ 7/2
14.30 Aintree - Vino Griego @ 8/1 e/w
15.40 Aintree - Criqtonic @ 25/1 e/w
16.15 Aintree - Master Of The Sea @ 8/1 e/w
16.50 Aintree - Khyber Kim @ 16/1 e/w
17.25 Aintree - Free Thinking @ 10/1 e/w
17.55 Wolves - Actonetaketwo @ 5/2
No value at either A/W meetings for me except the one pick which is about as short as we back for a single. (The Sedgefield card was one of the worst I have ever seen) Plenty of the favs should be winning at Aintree and everyone will have their accumulators on the favs for sure, although if you fancy some value, why not go for the same picks as me? Tell us what you think on Twitter @THTRacing.
THT
Wednesday 3 April 2013
Thursday 4th April
Glad I barely bet yesterday, looking at the cards you were left uninspired and the races looked weakish and trappy. Many little gambles going on, barely any going in however and some odd results. Anyway Thursday is very different with day one of the Aintree meet as well as some decent jumps racing at Taunton and some A/W action to get stuck into too. Tomorrow's selection's are as follows.
Singles:
15.20 Taunton - Hunt Ball @ 5/2 NAP
15.20 Taunton - Alasi @ 8/1 e/w
16.15 Aintree - Astracad @ 10/1 e/w
16.30 Taunton - Inside Dealer @ 25/1 e/w
16.40 Lingfield - Alnoomas @ 4/1 NB
17.55 Wolves - Jezza @ 6/1 e/w
18.25 Wolves - Restless Bay @ 12/1 e/w
19.55 Wolves - One Scoop Or Two @ 8/1 e/w IWAC
20.25 Wolves - Sally's Swansong @ 14/1 e/w
Value Double:
Hunt Ball and Alnoomas @ 16.5/1
Longshot each way double:
Restless Bay and One Scoop Or Two @ 116/1
Lucky 15:
Hunt Ball, Alnoomas, One Scoop or Two, Jezza.
Returns £1188 for a 50p win stake.
Got a good feeling about tomorrow, have a lot of confidence in every selection, despite the big prices as usual. Excited for the start of Aintree but just the one bet for us there tomorrow although I would love to see our gold cup fancy Silviniaco Conti win but he is too short to go near at odds on. Countrywide Flame is another horse I love and would be delighted to see him get the better of well fancied The New One yet I wouldn't begrudge him a win as the race is full of class and very competitive. Good luck to you all and enjoy the racing! Keep an eye out for our Grand National preview which will be on the blog tomorrow evening.
Plenty asking about our Aintree thoughts too so here are a few bets you may or may not be interested in.
Lucky 15 (1):
Irish Saint, Silviniaco Conti, Captain Conan, Countrywide Flame.
Pays £470.
Lucky 15 (2):
Irish Saint, First Lieutenant, The New One, Captain Conan.
Pays £790.
Straight Tricasts:
Countrywide Flame, The New One, Oscar Whisky @ 78/1
The New One, Countrywide Flame, Oscar Whisky @ 71/1
Silviniaco Conti, First Lieutenant, The Giant Bolster @ 15/1
First Lieutenant, Silviniaco Conti, The Giant Bolster @ 27/1
Oscar Whisky looks overpriced to me for the reasons I mentioned on Twitter and an e/w bet on him @ 7/1 looks appealing.
Good Luck all.
THT
Singles:
15.20 Taunton - Hunt Ball @ 5/2 NAP
15.20 Taunton - Alasi @ 8/1 e/w
16.15 Aintree - Astracad @ 10/1 e/w
16.30 Taunton - Inside Dealer @ 25/1 e/w
16.40 Lingfield - Alnoomas @ 4/1 NB
17.55 Wolves - Jezza @ 6/1 e/w
18.25 Wolves - Restless Bay @ 12/1 e/w
19.55 Wolves - One Scoop Or Two @ 8/1 e/w IWAC
20.25 Wolves - Sally's Swansong @ 14/1 e/w
Value Double:
Hunt Ball and Alnoomas @ 16.5/1
Longshot each way double:
Restless Bay and One Scoop Or Two @ 116/1
Lucky 15:
Hunt Ball, Alnoomas, One Scoop or Two, Jezza.
Returns £1188 for a 50p win stake.
Got a good feeling about tomorrow, have a lot of confidence in every selection, despite the big prices as usual. Excited for the start of Aintree but just the one bet for us there tomorrow although I would love to see our gold cup fancy Silviniaco Conti win but he is too short to go near at odds on. Countrywide Flame is another horse I love and would be delighted to see him get the better of well fancied The New One yet I wouldn't begrudge him a win as the race is full of class and very competitive. Good luck to you all and enjoy the racing! Keep an eye out for our Grand National preview which will be on the blog tomorrow evening.
Plenty asking about our Aintree thoughts too so here are a few bets you may or may not be interested in.
Lucky 15 (1):
Irish Saint, Silviniaco Conti, Captain Conan, Countrywide Flame.
Pays £470.
Lucky 15 (2):
Irish Saint, First Lieutenant, The New One, Captain Conan.
Pays £790.
Straight Tricasts:
Countrywide Flame, The New One, Oscar Whisky @ 78/1
The New One, Countrywide Flame, Oscar Whisky @ 71/1
Silviniaco Conti, First Lieutenant, The Giant Bolster @ 15/1
First Lieutenant, Silviniaco Conti, The Giant Bolster @ 27/1
Oscar Whisky looks overpriced to me for the reasons I mentioned on Twitter and an e/w bet on him @ 7/1 looks appealing.
Good Luck all.
THT
Monday 1 April 2013
Tuesday 2nd April
Another good day yesterday with winners at 11/4, 3/1, 10/3 and 8/1 and a 12/1 shot placing for each way returns added to the 3/4 on the Lucky 15 which returned £125 for a £1 stake. My NAP (Zaplamation) NB (Fieldgunner Kirkup) and third best bet (Prodigality) all went in. I was delighted with this but also quite annoyed as I always do a NAP and NB double and very often a treble which yesterday would have paid at 16/1 and 64/1 respectively if I had gone for them. That's racing I suppose! Also just realised this evening I had forgot to label my best bets appropriately and I keep forgetting to do this, won't happen again! Always find it good to make your best chance known as not everyone can back every horse. Anyway we hope to build on another great start to a week (always have good days on Monday's for some reason) with the horses below. I have plenty of time to explain my selections today, been very busy recently, I always try and explain why am backing a horse. Will also make sure I try to post a daily double and Lucky 15 as often as possible as I know some people like to just get involved with the multi bets but I am not advising anything unless I am 100% confident with it. Good Luck if you jump on today.
The 14.40 Exeter is a cracking little race for the grade and I don't think any can be ruled out. Venetia Williams has Saroque, the favourite at the time of writing who won comfortably on boxing day though has a 7lb rise to deal with here. Whether that will be enough to stop her I am not sure but this race certainly looks tougher, so despite the never out of form trainer and the recent improvement shown by the horse I am taking her on. Paul Nicholls has an entry but Watergate Bay hasn't raced since winning last time at Taunton in 2011 so I find it hard to find a reason to back him. The admirably consistent Ballinhow Star looks like he will give another solid account and you cant possibly rule out Lord Protector, Bygones Soveriegn or Shannon Spirit. A competitive race then, but two horses are overpriced for me. Xaarcet being one of them. He won when he was last here, over C and D then went on to complete a hattrick before finding 2m too short last time and coming home third. He is upped in trip again today and despite preferring the ground on the softer side he has his young claimer back on today which will help his cause and should go well. 12/1 looks a very appealing e/w proposition and can't say I would be surprised to see him in the winners enclosure as I believe he still has more to offer. The other one I think will outrun his price is Phone Home. He went in the notebook a month or two ago and despite not winning yet, he will be winning races soon imo. Yes his handicap debut was disappointing but something wasn't right from the very start that day and he was pulled up a fair way out, plus conditions weren't right for him anyway, in a better quality race than this one too. Wayne Hutchinson is an interesting jockey booking too, hinting that he carries some expectation today and as he was a close second to a hot favourite last time he raced here (Over C and D) I am very hopeful. 20/1 looks great e/w value to me.
Bentley should probably be a shorter price in the last at Southwell. 10/1 looks very generous for the Brian Baugh trained C and D winner. He went down by only a nose when heavily supported last time after his encouraging second behind the prolific Our Ivor the time before after a year off the track. He has the beating of a few of these on those two runs alone and his last effort on the quicker polytrack surface can be ignored as fibresand is his much preferred surface. He is sure to go close with Robert Tart in the saddle again and looks a great each way proposition in a weakish sort of race yet the Hans Adielsson trained favourite is very much the one to beat after his rout last time, if taking to this surface of course.
Chella Thriller is just about worth backing each way at the price in the Kempton opener. He is on a hattrick with George Baker in the saddle and should go very close. His below par run can be forgiven last time, and he looks to go better than course specialist Having A Ball judged on recent running with Tenure. CT was ridden in a strange way by a different jockey last time as he was encouraged to take a couple of lengths lead early when he is, in my opinion a better horse coming from the rear with a late swoop. He stays this trip out very well and his lack of Kempton experience looks the only worry, yet he should be going close in this company with Baker back in the saddle.
Divine Rule looks to have a good chance in the 16.30 Kempton tomorrow but he is probably priced about right. Lord of the Dance owes me absolutely nothing after his win at a huge 20/1 recently, though things fell exactly right that day. He is 14/1 in a weaker race today and I am happy to back him again at a double figure price which looks very generous considering he won over C and D in December.
Dishy Guru showed a glimmer of his old form which saw him win back to back races last Spring when six lengths third last time behind Elusive Hawk. Considering he reared in the stalls and was away very slowly he did very well rallying in the closing stages running on better than anything in a decent race with a subsequent 5L winner behind him. He hasn't been far off the pace the few races before that either and it could be his turn today in a competitive yet trappy sort of race. He will get a good pace today too which will suit him but Invigilator looks a threat partnered with Martin Dwyer once more. 11/1 for Dishy looks big though and I think he might go very close.
Below are the selections, 1pt e/w on all singles. Not going to label NAP's and NB's as they are mostly outsiders but Dishy Guru and Bentley would probably be my best value bets.
14.00 Kempton - Chella Thriller @ 6/1 e/w WON
14.40 Exeter - Xaarcet @ 12/1 e/w
14.40 Exeter - Phone Home @ 20/1 e/w
16.30 Kempton - Lord of the Dance @ 14/1 e/w Placed
17.00 Kempton - Dishy Guru @ 11/1 e/w
17.20 Southwell - Bentley @ 10/1 e/w
Longshot each way Lucky 15:
Xaarcet, Bentley, Lord of the Dance, Dishy Guru.
Returns £9750+ for a 25p e/w stake!!
Longshot each way double @ 131/1:
Bentley and Dishy Guru.
Shorties Treble @ 12/1:
15.50 Southwell - Even Stevens NR
16.20 Southwell - Elusive Hawk WON
17.40 Exeter - Jupiter Rex NR
Good Luck all.
THT
The 14.40 Exeter is a cracking little race for the grade and I don't think any can be ruled out. Venetia Williams has Saroque, the favourite at the time of writing who won comfortably on boxing day though has a 7lb rise to deal with here. Whether that will be enough to stop her I am not sure but this race certainly looks tougher, so despite the never out of form trainer and the recent improvement shown by the horse I am taking her on. Paul Nicholls has an entry but Watergate Bay hasn't raced since winning last time at Taunton in 2011 so I find it hard to find a reason to back him. The admirably consistent Ballinhow Star looks like he will give another solid account and you cant possibly rule out Lord Protector, Bygones Soveriegn or Shannon Spirit. A competitive race then, but two horses are overpriced for me. Xaarcet being one of them. He won when he was last here, over C and D then went on to complete a hattrick before finding 2m too short last time and coming home third. He is upped in trip again today and despite preferring the ground on the softer side he has his young claimer back on today which will help his cause and should go well. 12/1 looks a very appealing e/w proposition and can't say I would be surprised to see him in the winners enclosure as I believe he still has more to offer. The other one I think will outrun his price is Phone Home. He went in the notebook a month or two ago and despite not winning yet, he will be winning races soon imo. Yes his handicap debut was disappointing but something wasn't right from the very start that day and he was pulled up a fair way out, plus conditions weren't right for him anyway, in a better quality race than this one too. Wayne Hutchinson is an interesting jockey booking too, hinting that he carries some expectation today and as he was a close second to a hot favourite last time he raced here (Over C and D) I am very hopeful. 20/1 looks great e/w value to me.
Bentley should probably be a shorter price in the last at Southwell. 10/1 looks very generous for the Brian Baugh trained C and D winner. He went down by only a nose when heavily supported last time after his encouraging second behind the prolific Our Ivor the time before after a year off the track. He has the beating of a few of these on those two runs alone and his last effort on the quicker polytrack surface can be ignored as fibresand is his much preferred surface. He is sure to go close with Robert Tart in the saddle again and looks a great each way proposition in a weakish sort of race yet the Hans Adielsson trained favourite is very much the one to beat after his rout last time, if taking to this surface of course.
Chella Thriller is just about worth backing each way at the price in the Kempton opener. He is on a hattrick with George Baker in the saddle and should go very close. His below par run can be forgiven last time, and he looks to go better than course specialist Having A Ball judged on recent running with Tenure. CT was ridden in a strange way by a different jockey last time as he was encouraged to take a couple of lengths lead early when he is, in my opinion a better horse coming from the rear with a late swoop. He stays this trip out very well and his lack of Kempton experience looks the only worry, yet he should be going close in this company with Baker back in the saddle.
Divine Rule looks to have a good chance in the 16.30 Kempton tomorrow but he is probably priced about right. Lord of the Dance owes me absolutely nothing after his win at a huge 20/1 recently, though things fell exactly right that day. He is 14/1 in a weaker race today and I am happy to back him again at a double figure price which looks very generous considering he won over C and D in December.
Dishy Guru showed a glimmer of his old form which saw him win back to back races last Spring when six lengths third last time behind Elusive Hawk. Considering he reared in the stalls and was away very slowly he did very well rallying in the closing stages running on better than anything in a decent race with a subsequent 5L winner behind him. He hasn't been far off the pace the few races before that either and it could be his turn today in a competitive yet trappy sort of race. He will get a good pace today too which will suit him but Invigilator looks a threat partnered with Martin Dwyer once more. 11/1 for Dishy looks big though and I think he might go very close.
Below are the selections, 1pt e/w on all singles. Not going to label NAP's and NB's as they are mostly outsiders but Dishy Guru and Bentley would probably be my best value bets.
14.00 Kempton - Chella Thriller @ 6/1 e/w WON
14.40 Exeter - Xaarcet @ 12/1 e/w
14.40 Exeter - Phone Home @ 20/1 e/w
16.30 Kempton - Lord of the Dance @ 14/1 e/w Placed
17.00 Kempton - Dishy Guru @ 11/1 e/w
17.20 Southwell - Bentley @ 10/1 e/w
Longshot each way Lucky 15:
Xaarcet, Bentley, Lord of the Dance, Dishy Guru.
Returns £9750+ for a 25p e/w stake!!
Longshot each way double @ 131/1:
Bentley and Dishy Guru.
Shorties Treble @ 12/1:
15.50 Southwell - Even Stevens NR
16.20 Southwell - Elusive Hawk WON
17.40 Exeter - Jupiter Rex NR
Good Luck all.
THT
Monday 1st April
Defy Logic losing by a head ruined yesterday and same old story as we backed a horse at 8/1, gets backed off the wall to 3/1 and doesn't place. Ahh well! Today has more quality than quantity but we have picked out a few worth a small wager, but small stakes advised! The feature race being the Irish Grand National. Good Luck all.
14.40 Yarmouth - Diplomatic @ 10/1 e/w
14.50 Warwick - Onewayoranother @ 12/1 e/w
15.00 Redcar - Zaplamation @ 10/3 WON
15.10 Yarmouth - Mumeyez @ 5/1 e/w
15.10 Fairyhouse - Sarabad @ 7/1 e/w
15.20 Warwick - Prodigality @ 11/4 WON
15.40 Yarmouth - The Noble Ord @ 11/1 e/w
16.00 Redcar - Fieldgunner Kirkup @ 3/1 WON
16.05 Plumpton - Lord Singer @ 8/1 e/w
16.10 Yarmouth - Smart Spender @ 4/1
16.20 Warwick - Icanboogie @ 14/1 e/w
16.50 Fairyhouse - Panther Claw @ 12/1 e/w Placed
16.50 Fairhouse - Jadanli @ 40/1 e/w
17.10 Yarmouth - The Ducking Stool @ 8/1 e/w WON
Mullins/Walsh Trixie:
14.40 Fairyhouse - Zaidpour
15.10 Fairyhouse - Sarabad
15.40 Fairyhouse - Tennis Cap
Doubles and the Treble:
14.05 Yarmouth - Munhamer
15.40 Fairyhouse - Tennis Cap
16.00 Redcar - Fieldgunner Kirkup
Lucky 15:
Fieldgunner Kirkup (Won), Prodigality (Won), Zaplamation (Won), Mumeyez
Returned £125 from a £1 stake.
Probably done too many today but can't do anything now! Good Luck all, remember these are just my bets!
THT
14.40 Yarmouth - Diplomatic @ 10/1 e/w
14.50 Warwick - Onewayoranother @ 12/1 e/w
15.00 Redcar - Zaplamation @ 10/3 WON
15.10 Yarmouth - Mumeyez @ 5/1 e/w
15.10 Fairyhouse - Sarabad @ 7/1 e/w
15.20 Warwick - Prodigality @ 11/4 WON
15.40 Yarmouth - The Noble Ord @ 11/1 e/w
16.00 Redcar - Fieldgunner Kirkup @ 3/1 WON
16.05 Plumpton - Lord Singer @ 8/1 e/w
16.10 Yarmouth - Smart Spender @ 4/1
16.20 Warwick - Icanboogie @ 14/1 e/w
16.50 Fairyhouse - Panther Claw @ 12/1 e/w Placed
16.50 Fairhouse - Jadanli @ 40/1 e/w
17.10 Yarmouth - The Ducking Stool @ 8/1 e/w WON
Mullins/Walsh Trixie:
14.40 Fairyhouse - Zaidpour
15.10 Fairyhouse - Sarabad
15.40 Fairyhouse - Tennis Cap
Doubles and the Treble:
14.05 Yarmouth - Munhamer
15.40 Fairyhouse - Tennis Cap
16.00 Redcar - Fieldgunner Kirkup
Lucky 15:
Fieldgunner Kirkup (Won), Prodigality (Won), Zaplamation (Won), Mumeyez
Returned £125 from a £1 stake.
Probably done too many today but can't do anything now! Good Luck all, remember these are just my bets!
THT
Saturday 30 March 2013
Sunday 31st March
Another really solid day yesterday with Thunderball the big winner at 16/1, but he was available at 25/1 for the race last week when we tipped him when subsequently the meeting was rescheduled. Two 7/1 winners including the impressive Buckland stormed home and Animal Kingdom won the Dubai World Cup at 11/2, which I mentioned on Twitter. An 8/1 score prediction on the football (2-1 Spurs) also came in so a really good day overall. If only Robin Hood's Bay had managed to win we would have landed a massive 27/1 double too and I regret not backing Loyaute as I thought he would win after backing him the last twice but thought he was a tad short, should have stuck him in the double - hindsight! Anyway on to Sunday; again please excuse the fact there are no write ups I simply have no time to go into detail at the weekends, which is why I rarely used to post my selections on Saturday's and Sunday's!
Singles:
15.50 Musselburgh - Royal Peculiar @ 7/1 e/w
16.00 Plumpton - Balder Success @ 8/1 e/w
Each Way double on two selections above:
Pays at 71/1.
Fairyhouse Double:
14.25 Annie Power
14.55 Defy Logic
Pays at 9/2.
Fairyhouse Treble:
Add Mount Benbulben (16.30).
Pays at 19.5/1.
Multi-Sports Accumulator:
14.10 Towcester - Thinger Licht
14.25 Fairyhouse - Annie Power
14.55 Fairyhouse - Defy Logic
Aston Villa/Liverpool BTTS
St Mirre/Celtic Over 2.5 goals
Pays at 35/1.
Good Luck all, don't usually bet in Ireland but some cracking high class races at Fairyhouse and could not resist.
THT
Singles:
15.50 Musselburgh - Royal Peculiar @ 7/1 e/w
16.00 Plumpton - Balder Success @ 8/1 e/w
Each Way double on two selections above:
Pays at 71/1.
Fairyhouse Double:
14.25 Annie Power
14.55 Defy Logic
Pays at 9/2.
Fairyhouse Treble:
Add Mount Benbulben (16.30).
Pays at 19.5/1.
Multi-Sports Accumulator:
14.10 Towcester - Thinger Licht
14.25 Fairyhouse - Annie Power
14.55 Fairyhouse - Defy Logic
Aston Villa/Liverpool BTTS
St Mirre/Celtic Over 2.5 goals
Pays at 35/1.
Good Luck all, don't usually bet in Ireland but some cracking high class races at Fairyhouse and could not resist.
THT
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