Blog returned with a bang yesterday with a 22/1 winner in the opening race as Fanning timed his run to perfection on Lyn Valley though the hard luck story was the other Johnston runner who finished second ruining my forecast! We had other each way money through the day at 8/1, 8/1 and 7/1 with two others missing out on places both by a nose at 7/1 and 14/1.
Anyway on to Friday where I have a few fancies at a more competitive looking Goodwood as well as one from the tracker at a huge price who is thrown in and can hopefully do some damage.
The course form showed it's importance yesterday in a big way as shown by the results for previous winners at the track. Whilst I won't be solely concentrating on that today it will of course be an important thing to look out for when studying the card.
Race 1: The opener is arguably the most intriguing of the day. Last year's 2nd favourite for the Derby Battle of Marengo trying to find form, the return of Quest For Peace who is 2/2 at the track and back with Luca Cumani after disappointing in Australia and probably the most interesting of them all, the return of Encke who lowered Camelot's colours in his triple crown bid back in 2012. The St Leger winner is back after his drugs ban and will be interesting to see how he goes, now a 5yo. Just one to watch for me, but will be in the headlines whichever horse wins.
Race 2: Another nice little race here. I backed Shifting Power when 100/1 forth in the Guineas and his subsequesnt form makes him a worthy favourite. Rapprochement, a fascinating runner who demolished his rivals on debut for the prolific Appleby/Kirby partnership may make an impact but not sure what to make of him - clearly needs to be pretty special to trouble the best of these at this stage. Then again he won doing handstands and he doesn't make the trip for no reason, obviously well regarded.
My bet in this race will be the outsider of the field, naturally! A few subsequent winners came out of his impressive win at Epsom two runs back and while the form is ordinary on first glance there are many positives to his chances. He had Lyn Valley behind him that day and that horse has since won at Goodwood just yesterday, our 22/1 winner in fact! I expected What About Carlo to win his next race too when I was there at Newmarket the last day. If I remember rightly the market did too, was heavily backed in from as big as 10/1 if I remember rightly, SP 4/1. However, he ran flat. The jockey told the trainer after the race he didn't feel right and never got going and I believe it was officially registered with the stewards. Why? I don't know, maybe the way the race was run, or the horse had a problem that connections missed. He was hardly given a hard time by Jimmy Fortune either way. Some will say it was the 7lb penatly, but I say give him another chance up in class and down in trip with Mr Moore taking over. Another thing to note is that he is the only runner with a win at the course, over C/D in fact. Furthermore he clearly handles tight, nimble, undulating tracks as he is 1/1 at Epsom and 1/1 here and bringing him back here, down in trip and with the best jockey in the world taking over he can out run his big odds. One or two of these will be tough to beat but with eight runners and a price of 28/1, this well regarded colt can get back on track with a big run. Today's IWAC, and quite a strong one I feel, but the favourite is the one to beat and the Godolphin runner is not one to underestimate.
Race 3: The Betfred Mile next, the most competitive race of the day probably. Velox is the favourite at 7/1 and certainly won well enough last time, my favourite jockey takes over too but I fancy one just that little bit more. Heavy Metal was having his 10th start of the season when winning the Longines just six days ago and surely that run would have taken plenty out of him? Won his last two well but needs more though does have course form but never won over a mile. 50/50 for me but decided not to back, may regret that. One at a bigger price that I have backed is Our Channel for the in form Haggas yard. 20/1 represents great value to me for the only three year old in the field. (3yos won last two runnings) His weight for age allowance means he can run off a mark of 94 here effectively which throws him right into the thick of it. (official rating 101) The least exposed member of the field, he is a truly fascinating contender. His last assignment was in the USA when coming a good second in the American Derby after not staying over 1m4f in the Epsom Derby back in June. This horse won the Derby Trial however, winning very gamely over 10 furlongs under a good ride from Ryan Moore beating most notably Hartnell who is now as short as 5/1 for the St Leger. That is strong form indeed considering he is being let loose off 94 today. Expect a very positive ride from De Sousa who notably has a 36% SR for the yard. 20/1 is mad and won't last I am sure of it. The money from this yard is usually smart, so the more that comes the prettier we will sit. My NAP of the day.
Race 4: I like the best horse in the race here plain and simply. Tropics took his time to get back to form but ran a career best at a whopping 66/1 last time when second behind Slade Power in the July Cup. That's the best form on offer. The drop back to five furlongs is an interesting move and one that I think will work out rasther well. He handles the track as shown by his good Stewards Cup run here last year and if running up to the form of his last run nothing else will get past him. It's competitive, of course it is, Moviesta may be the biggest danger, a horse I really like and took this prize last year but ran nothing like that form this season, but possible a return here could re-kindle the fire. At 7/1 you can't go wrong each way with Tropics, however.
Race 5: Not usually my type of race but couldn't resist a punt on George Bowen in this. He is clearly very highly regarded, being dumped in at the deep end in a Group 2 on only his second start. Not just any Group 2 either, the July Stakes which I think was a very strong batch of two year olds this year, just look at the field. Ivawood, from Jungle Cat as well as The Great War from O'Brien's yard. Strong form indeed in the context of this race. He is still in the Gimcrack and you get the impression that connections were disappointed after his last run. He gets into this nursery off 84 by the way. This is what his trainer had to say: 'He starts his handicaps off a rating of 84 and if he is the colt we think he is, that could be very fair.' 9/1 at time of writing though 37% of the money is on him at the moment, get on fast if you like his chances.
Race 6: No strong opinion here but thought Muteela was fair at 3/1. Worth mentioning that the only horse with course form is course and distance winner Wee Jean for Mick Channon and Ryan Moore.
Race 7: No strong opinion though maybe Art Of War has been judged a bit harshly on last run and 18/1 a little big possibly.
Tracker: Just one from the tracker on Friday and one I fancy. Spiritual Star has finally dropped in grade and also back in trip to the ideal 7f. He also returns to Newmarket, the scene of his sole win (C/D) and has now dropped 16lbs in the handicap since joining the Carsons. Tomorrow is the day handbrake is realeased I think, and the drop in grade and firmer surface should see him run a screamer, especially if ridden more positively from the front. This horse was once rated 109 rightly or wrongly and he ran a huge eycatcher on seasonal debut off 92, a race he could have won if the rider tried a bit harder. Off 83 he will think he has been let loose and might rack up a bit of a sequence if allowed. It's a matter of when not if, and hopefully it can be tomorrow, especially at the prices available, 18/1 could end up looking silly.
Selections:
14.30 - What About Carlo 28/1 ew Non-Runner
15.05 - Our Channel 20/1 ew NAP
15.40 - Tropics 7/1 ew Non-Runner
16.15 - George Bowen 9/1 ew IWAC
19.30 - Spiritual Star 18/1 ew NB
Good luck if you take the plunge with us. All big each way prices as usual.
THT
Thursday 31 July 2014
Wednesday 30 July 2014
Thursday 31st July
Don't write a blog often these days, mostly due to being so busy but have a bit of spare time this week and really fancy a few at the unique venue that is Goodwood tomorrow. Been some really good racing there as always already this week, despite the fact the bookies are running out of wheelbarrows to fill up already. On to tomorrow.
Trying something a bit different at Goodwood today. Ignoring the prices and their recent form to an extent and purely going on horses with proven course form. At a track like Wolverhampton, course form means nothing, but the unique style of this particular racetrack can make or break a horse, something which I always think is overlooked by the average punter. And it isn't just the horses, some jockeys just can't ride the track, plain and simple. Jim Crowley has a stinking record there for example with just 3.6% of his mounts finishing first, and just one winner there in the past eighteen months.
A piece here from the goodwoodraces.com website which highlights the nature of the course:
'The track at Goodwood is unusual, with a 6 furlong straight which connects at one end to a triangular loop. Undulating ground and tight irregular bends favour elegant, nimble and well balanced horses. High draws are sometimes preferable over longer distances but expect surprises on a course which is hard to handle, even for top horses and jockeys'
Couldn't have put it better myself!
I suppose it is similar to Epsom, another track where course form more often that not comes into play. In fact, a horse that handles Epsom is likelier to handle Goodwood and any course form there is encouraging if a horse is coming here for the first time.
Race 1 14.05:
Two course winners here. Firstly the unexposed Madeed for the in form Meehan yard. Won his maiden here before below par at Newmarket. Bounced back with big run last time when tongue tie applied when staying on well on the wrong side in the Britannia, this looks less competitive and handles the track, least exposed of the field and also been tipped by Pricewise so get on quick. 8/1.
Lyn Valley is the other course winner in here and at 22/1 I can't resist an each way punt with Mr Fanning on board. Recent form uninspiring but only 1lb higher than when winning here a year ago and may have been campaigned with Goodwood in mind, yard does well here and not one to rule out.
Race 2 14.35:
Just one course winner here and that is Jungle Cat. Ran a big race last time when behind reopposing Ivawood and on 3lb better terms. Still improving and at what looks a big 8/1 is surely the each way bet of the race. With that course form and the small 3lb pull, he may just be a bit harder to pass than the prices suggest. 5/2 in the without Ivawood market and it my book that should be 6/4. Worth mentioning too that Hannon is yet to have winner so far this week...
One other danger could be Brian Meehan's intriguing contender. His usually come on massively for their debuts and his first time out winners are usually smart. Could be one step too soon but Fox Trotter is worthy of a coverbet each way at a generous 14/1.
Race 3 15.10:
Three course winners in this one but I don't fancy the Henderson runner so scratched that one. Brown Panther is the classier of the two and won this race last year. The news that they are watering again is a bonus, he wouldn't want it super quick but is 2/2 at the trip and can get back to winning ways after a near miss in France and being outstayed in the Gold Cup. Have to say I expected a shorter price than the 7/2 out there.
The second and more intriguing runner for me is Whiplash Willie. This Andrew Balding trained 6yo has only finished outside the top three once in his last nine races and ran a huge race when staying on strongly late on behind Brown Panther at Sandown in May when coming from quite some way back. He has come back from his injury better than ever (two and a half years off the track) and the return to this venue may bring out further improvement. Again though, rattling ground may be a concern though you would hope he would have a chance if connections let him take his chance. 22/1 looks big for a horse who is still lightly raced and very much unexposed at this trip.
Ignoring races 3-5 as they are maidens or have no horses with course form.
Race 6 16.50:
None of these have course form and I was going to leave it there but Almargo caught my attention. Presumably Fanning had the choice and this horse has won at Epsom. (see earlier comments) He ran a shocker last time over an inadequate trip and on horrible ground and ignoring that he would be the favourite here. Quick ground ideal and 3/3 in 7f handicaps. Very dangerous to rule out for a trainer who does well here and a horse that has already won five times this season. 7/1 and the each way bet of what looks a very winnable race.
Race 7 17.25:
Mr Portman has his horses in rude health and his Balmoral Castle has to be of interest in his current mood in the finale. He won with plenty in hand last time despite the young lad nearly throwing it away(!) and is one of two course (and distance) winners in this race. Whilst this is a step up in grade, the slight drop back in trip will be ideal though to be fair I think he is short enough for a race like this so a no bet for me but definitely a danger to the following contender.
The more interesting runner for me here, especially at the prices has to be the other C/D winner Weapon Of Choice. He ran his best race of the season last time when bouncing back to fom, being held up at the back in a very steadily run race before being hampered and boxed in until staying on encouragingly toward the business end. Been let loose off same mark today and I think he will be dangerous as he has won off higher marks in the past and seems to enjoy tricky tracks like these (also won at Epsom.) At 12/1 he is the each way bet of the day for me though one negative is that the jockey hasn't ridden a winner here at Goodwood from five tries.
Also got two running from the tracker tomorrow. Not sure what to make of Saoi who was, how do I put this, ridden very gently last time(!!) but hopefully come on a bunch for reappearance. Was held up in rear in muddling affair then tenderley ridden staying on encouragingly to only be beaten two lengths. In my mind it was a prep run though not sure this small field will suit that well. This represents a drop in grade though and is massively unexposed on turf. Was in same race as Weapon Of Choice last time so hopefully can advertise the form a bit before that one runs. See how we go but certainly shouldn't be outsider of the field at 7/1 and in terms of value is one of the better bets of the day.
King Of Macedon has a worryingly high head carriage which suggests he isn't that genuine but I thought he had more in the tank last time. He seems to be a very keen sort and is obviously a very proud animal. I posted a tweet that if reverting to front running in a small field I thought he would be hard to pass and hopefully he can do that tomorrow from the rail draw with exactly those conditions. My only worry is that as he is a big, and possibly ungenuine and difficult horse, the track may not be to his liking but lets see anyway. 7/2.
Selections:
14.05 - Madeed 8/1 ew Placed // Lyn Valley 22/1 ew WINNER
14.35 - Jungle Cat 8/1 ew Placed // Fox Trotter 14/1 ew
15.05 - Brown Panther 7/2 Placed // Whiplash Willie 22/1 ew NR
16.50 - Almargo 7/1 ew Placed
17.25 - Weapon Of Choice 12/1 ew
Tracker:
16.40 Saoi 7/1 ew
18.55 King Of Macedon 7/2
NAP: Weapon of Choice 12/1
NB: Saoi 7/1
IWAC: Jungle Cat 8/1 Placed
Good Luck if you take the plunge, certainly punted plenty which is unlike us. These types of days end up being absolutely fantastic or failing spectacularly on their heads but guess that's the game isn't it? Hope there are a few winners in there, all feedback welcome and hope you enjoyed the read.
THT
Trying something a bit different at Goodwood today. Ignoring the prices and their recent form to an extent and purely going on horses with proven course form. At a track like Wolverhampton, course form means nothing, but the unique style of this particular racetrack can make or break a horse, something which I always think is overlooked by the average punter. And it isn't just the horses, some jockeys just can't ride the track, plain and simple. Jim Crowley has a stinking record there for example with just 3.6% of his mounts finishing first, and just one winner there in the past eighteen months.
A piece here from the goodwoodraces.com website which highlights the nature of the course:
'The track at Goodwood is unusual, with a 6 furlong straight which connects at one end to a triangular loop. Undulating ground and tight irregular bends favour elegant, nimble and well balanced horses. High draws are sometimes preferable over longer distances but expect surprises on a course which is hard to handle, even for top horses and jockeys'
Couldn't have put it better myself!
I suppose it is similar to Epsom, another track where course form more often that not comes into play. In fact, a horse that handles Epsom is likelier to handle Goodwood and any course form there is encouraging if a horse is coming here for the first time.
Race 1 14.05:
Two course winners here. Firstly the unexposed Madeed for the in form Meehan yard. Won his maiden here before below par at Newmarket. Bounced back with big run last time when tongue tie applied when staying on well on the wrong side in the Britannia, this looks less competitive and handles the track, least exposed of the field and also been tipped by Pricewise so get on quick. 8/1.
Lyn Valley is the other course winner in here and at 22/1 I can't resist an each way punt with Mr Fanning on board. Recent form uninspiring but only 1lb higher than when winning here a year ago and may have been campaigned with Goodwood in mind, yard does well here and not one to rule out.
Race 2 14.35:
Just one course winner here and that is Jungle Cat. Ran a big race last time when behind reopposing Ivawood and on 3lb better terms. Still improving and at what looks a big 8/1 is surely the each way bet of the race. With that course form and the small 3lb pull, he may just be a bit harder to pass than the prices suggest. 5/2 in the without Ivawood market and it my book that should be 6/4. Worth mentioning too that Hannon is yet to have winner so far this week...
One other danger could be Brian Meehan's intriguing contender. His usually come on massively for their debuts and his first time out winners are usually smart. Could be one step too soon but Fox Trotter is worthy of a coverbet each way at a generous 14/1.
Race 3 15.10:
Three course winners in this one but I don't fancy the Henderson runner so scratched that one. Brown Panther is the classier of the two and won this race last year. The news that they are watering again is a bonus, he wouldn't want it super quick but is 2/2 at the trip and can get back to winning ways after a near miss in France and being outstayed in the Gold Cup. Have to say I expected a shorter price than the 7/2 out there.
The second and more intriguing runner for me is Whiplash Willie. This Andrew Balding trained 6yo has only finished outside the top three once in his last nine races and ran a huge race when staying on strongly late on behind Brown Panther at Sandown in May when coming from quite some way back. He has come back from his injury better than ever (two and a half years off the track) and the return to this venue may bring out further improvement. Again though, rattling ground may be a concern though you would hope he would have a chance if connections let him take his chance. 22/1 looks big for a horse who is still lightly raced and very much unexposed at this trip.
Ignoring races 3-5 as they are maidens or have no horses with course form.
Race 6 16.50:
None of these have course form and I was going to leave it there but Almargo caught my attention. Presumably Fanning had the choice and this horse has won at Epsom. (see earlier comments) He ran a shocker last time over an inadequate trip and on horrible ground and ignoring that he would be the favourite here. Quick ground ideal and 3/3 in 7f handicaps. Very dangerous to rule out for a trainer who does well here and a horse that has already won five times this season. 7/1 and the each way bet of what looks a very winnable race.
Race 7 17.25:
Mr Portman has his horses in rude health and his Balmoral Castle has to be of interest in his current mood in the finale. He won with plenty in hand last time despite the young lad nearly throwing it away(!) and is one of two course (and distance) winners in this race. Whilst this is a step up in grade, the slight drop back in trip will be ideal though to be fair I think he is short enough for a race like this so a no bet for me but definitely a danger to the following contender.
The more interesting runner for me here, especially at the prices has to be the other C/D winner Weapon Of Choice. He ran his best race of the season last time when bouncing back to fom, being held up at the back in a very steadily run race before being hampered and boxed in until staying on encouragingly toward the business end. Been let loose off same mark today and I think he will be dangerous as he has won off higher marks in the past and seems to enjoy tricky tracks like these (also won at Epsom.) At 12/1 he is the each way bet of the day for me though one negative is that the jockey hasn't ridden a winner here at Goodwood from five tries.
Also got two running from the tracker tomorrow. Not sure what to make of Saoi who was, how do I put this, ridden very gently last time(!!) but hopefully come on a bunch for reappearance. Was held up in rear in muddling affair then tenderley ridden staying on encouragingly to only be beaten two lengths. In my mind it was a prep run though not sure this small field will suit that well. This represents a drop in grade though and is massively unexposed on turf. Was in same race as Weapon Of Choice last time so hopefully can advertise the form a bit before that one runs. See how we go but certainly shouldn't be outsider of the field at 7/1 and in terms of value is one of the better bets of the day.
King Of Macedon has a worryingly high head carriage which suggests he isn't that genuine but I thought he had more in the tank last time. He seems to be a very keen sort and is obviously a very proud animal. I posted a tweet that if reverting to front running in a small field I thought he would be hard to pass and hopefully he can do that tomorrow from the rail draw with exactly those conditions. My only worry is that as he is a big, and possibly ungenuine and difficult horse, the track may not be to his liking but lets see anyway. 7/2.
Selections:
14.05 - Madeed 8/1 ew Placed // Lyn Valley 22/1 ew WINNER
14.35 - Jungle Cat 8/1 ew Placed // Fox Trotter 14/1 ew
15.05 - Brown Panther 7/2 Placed // Whiplash Willie 22/1 ew NR
16.50 - Almargo 7/1 ew Placed
17.25 - Weapon Of Choice 12/1 ew
Tracker:
16.40 Saoi 7/1 ew
18.55 King Of Macedon 7/2
NAP: Weapon of Choice 12/1
NB: Saoi 7/1
IWAC: Jungle Cat 8/1 Placed
Good Luck if you take the plunge, certainly punted plenty which is unlike us. These types of days end up being absolutely fantastic or failing spectacularly on their heads but guess that's the game isn't it? Hope there are a few winners in there, all feedback welcome and hope you enjoyed the read.
THT
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