Not a great deal of time on side to write a detailed blog tonight so will just post selections with main reasons for backing.
IWAC 14.10 - King Of Paradise - 3lb below last winning mark, back in trip and dropped in grade, 14/1 big.
NAP 18.50 - Ventriloquist - Solid form lto, Kirby/Appleby 67% SR in turf maidens with the last four winning.
NB 19.30 - Streetcar To Stars - Getting massive weight allowance from older horses, best run at trip, unexposed, highly regarded, 5/2 on the skinny side but still a bit of value there.
Ed De Giles is a trainer in form and he has four tomorrow with excellent chances, backed them as singles and also in a yankee at small stakes for interest.
14.20 Living It Large 7/1
15.50 Men Don't Cry 8/1
18.15 Twenty One Choice 5/1
19.55 Croquembouche 5/1
Good luck if you follow.
Also there are some dodgy things going on tomorrow, Barney Curley may be connected to two horses returning from 500+ day breaks and they have already been heavily gambled. Keep up to date with what we think on Twitter throughout the day.
THT
Wednesday 6 August 2014
Tuesday 5 August 2014
Wednesday 6th August
Decent enough day yesterday with an impressive performance by our 6/1 winner and some place money at 10/1 and 33/1 to boot. NAP ran okay but really thought it should have won. Swordbearer just ran into one on the day but showed massively improved form, as did Gosden's back in third and they both have made their way into the tracker. Dire Straits did one of the two things I expected; win or come last. Unfotunately for us it was the latter despite it being backed into 3/1 fav from 7/1. I thought our NB had nicked the race as he led for 6.9 furlongs of the 7 but got nailed on the line. However, he held on for third beating the jolly and 33/1 place returns are always welcome. I did actually back the winner at 50.0 on the machine thanks to someone mentioning the form figures on polytrack seconds before the off, so I was a happy chappy anyway! On to today.
Candlelight ran a screamer on her all-weather debut last time only going down by a length to her half sister, the earlier highly tried 3/10 shot Magic Florence after missing the start by a few strides. The pair were over ten lengths clear of the remainder at the finish and in the context of this race that is strong form. Al Fareej is obviously well regarded and rates the main danger but looking at forecast SP's you have to side with this Charlie Hills filly. It's no surprise she stepped up massively on her turf debut when trying the polytrack last time as she is out of Zabedee, the first season all weather wonder stallion! ;-) His stats say 5/13 on the surface but in some races he has had multiple runners so it's actually 5/10 races won where he has had runners, and two of those not included came second. Those five wins have come in the last six races and he is my all-weather sire to follow this autumn and winter for 2yos. Will see what the price opens up at but all things considered, this filly looks to have an outstanding chance for a trainer whose last 18 runners in polytrack maidens have finished in the top four. NB.
Skytrain is another one I really fancy to be very tough to beat. The fact is that he won't be beaten if running up to the form of his last race at Goodwood, especially in this lower grade. He conceded weight to five horses rated up to 7lbs higher than him and beat them all bar the winner Extremity who was rated 84 and recieving 2lbs off Skytrain (78) so effectively he had 8lbs to find with that runner. The second was Buckstay who looks a nice horse, rated 86 and will go on to better things. The gallop was a frenetic one set by the horse that eventually finished tailed off and considering how close he was to the pace, it was a monumental effort to gamely hang on for third from better rated horses in behind. He took up the running a long way out and stayed on really willingly. What I am saying is he ran a race that suggests he is soon to return to winning ways. So how much was he raised for this huge run? 2lbs, 3lbs, 4lbs, maybe even 5lbs? Nope, he was dropped a pound in the handicap and has a mark of 77. With the rider's claim he is effectively off 74. Can you see why I really fancy it now? Not saying this isn't competitive but if the horse runs a simlar race to at Goodwood, nothing gets close. Worth mentioning he should handle the undulations of this unique course as he handled Goodwood just fine. Shame Joe Fanning goes to Pontefract to ride just the one in the maiden (wink wink) as if he was here I would be having one of my biggest bets of the season. However, dropped in grade with perfect conditons and off effectively 4lbs lower, there will be no excuses today as he has won five races off higher marks in the past. Price you ask? 7/4? 9/4? Wrong, 5/1 :O NAP.
TRACKER - Barye is of interest in the 7.40 returning to the All-Weather. He won his maiden in good style at Lingfield over 1f shorter and his sire has a 23% SR at Kempton. He ran a very solid race last time and the return to Polyrack for a yard in superb form makes 7/1 look value each way. Bishop Of Ruscombe is the danger especially as Probert has a 44% SR when riding for owner David Brownlow.
TRACKER - Third Dimension back on slower ground and upped in trip makes strong appeal over in Ireland. He won his maiden on easy ground before being sent to Royal Ascot for the Brittania when far from disgraced off 95. The ground was probably the excuse last time when backed into favouritism and on a slower surface he can recapture form with the step up to 10 furlongs likely to suit.
Two I will be keeping a close eye on in the markets are Poyle Vinnie and Toto Skyllachy. The former was hammered in the betting on stable debut when 3rd, ususally smart money and there may have been one or two faesible excuses and he is still lightly raced. Has the stable jockey on board this time too and at 4/1 might be worth a small punt. Toto Skyllachy makes debut for new yard but is undoubtedly well treated on past exploits. He was heavily punted last time and if in the mood he can do some damage eased in grade off 79. 12/1 opening show looks a fair price indeed. Keep an eye on Twitter as I will update when I can whether I have backed or not, as of this moment I am not offering them as selections, will leave them to you.
Selections:
NAP: 15.50 Skytrain 5/1
NB: 14.00 Candlelight 9/2
Tracker:
IWAC: 19.00 Third Dimension 6/1 ew
19.40 Barye 7/1 ew
Good Luck if you follow and remember to keep an eye on our tweets through the day for any selections, race information or potential lays. You can set up a notification everytime we tweet so you don't miss anything by going on our profile homepage, pressing the settings button which looks like a cog-wheel and pressing 'turn on notiffications.' Then again, why you would want me spamming your phone every five minutes I don't know! Good luck if you go with us today, more profit yesterday and long may it continue.
THT
Candlelight ran a screamer on her all-weather debut last time only going down by a length to her half sister, the earlier highly tried 3/10 shot Magic Florence after missing the start by a few strides. The pair were over ten lengths clear of the remainder at the finish and in the context of this race that is strong form. Al Fareej is obviously well regarded and rates the main danger but looking at forecast SP's you have to side with this Charlie Hills filly. It's no surprise she stepped up massively on her turf debut when trying the polytrack last time as she is out of Zabedee, the first season all weather wonder stallion! ;-) His stats say 5/13 on the surface but in some races he has had multiple runners so it's actually 5/10 races won where he has had runners, and two of those not included came second. Those five wins have come in the last six races and he is my all-weather sire to follow this autumn and winter for 2yos. Will see what the price opens up at but all things considered, this filly looks to have an outstanding chance for a trainer whose last 18 runners in polytrack maidens have finished in the top four. NB.
Skytrain is another one I really fancy to be very tough to beat. The fact is that he won't be beaten if running up to the form of his last race at Goodwood, especially in this lower grade. He conceded weight to five horses rated up to 7lbs higher than him and beat them all bar the winner Extremity who was rated 84 and recieving 2lbs off Skytrain (78) so effectively he had 8lbs to find with that runner. The second was Buckstay who looks a nice horse, rated 86 and will go on to better things. The gallop was a frenetic one set by the horse that eventually finished tailed off and considering how close he was to the pace, it was a monumental effort to gamely hang on for third from better rated horses in behind. He took up the running a long way out and stayed on really willingly. What I am saying is he ran a race that suggests he is soon to return to winning ways. So how much was he raised for this huge run? 2lbs, 3lbs, 4lbs, maybe even 5lbs? Nope, he was dropped a pound in the handicap and has a mark of 77. With the rider's claim he is effectively off 74. Can you see why I really fancy it now? Not saying this isn't competitive but if the horse runs a simlar race to at Goodwood, nothing gets close. Worth mentioning he should handle the undulations of this unique course as he handled Goodwood just fine. Shame Joe Fanning goes to Pontefract to ride just the one in the maiden (wink wink) as if he was here I would be having one of my biggest bets of the season. However, dropped in grade with perfect conditons and off effectively 4lbs lower, there will be no excuses today as he has won five races off higher marks in the past. Price you ask? 7/4? 9/4? Wrong, 5/1 :O NAP.
TRACKER - Barye is of interest in the 7.40 returning to the All-Weather. He won his maiden in good style at Lingfield over 1f shorter and his sire has a 23% SR at Kempton. He ran a very solid race last time and the return to Polyrack for a yard in superb form makes 7/1 look value each way. Bishop Of Ruscombe is the danger especially as Probert has a 44% SR when riding for owner David Brownlow.
TRACKER - Third Dimension back on slower ground and upped in trip makes strong appeal over in Ireland. He won his maiden on easy ground before being sent to Royal Ascot for the Brittania when far from disgraced off 95. The ground was probably the excuse last time when backed into favouritism and on a slower surface he can recapture form with the step up to 10 furlongs likely to suit.
Two I will be keeping a close eye on in the markets are Poyle Vinnie and Toto Skyllachy. The former was hammered in the betting on stable debut when 3rd, ususally smart money and there may have been one or two faesible excuses and he is still lightly raced. Has the stable jockey on board this time too and at 4/1 might be worth a small punt. Toto Skyllachy makes debut for new yard but is undoubtedly well treated on past exploits. He was heavily punted last time and if in the mood he can do some damage eased in grade off 79. 12/1 opening show looks a fair price indeed. Keep an eye on Twitter as I will update when I can whether I have backed or not, as of this moment I am not offering them as selections, will leave them to you.
Selections:
NAP: 15.50 Skytrain 5/1
NB: 14.00 Candlelight 9/2
Tracker:
IWAC: 19.00 Third Dimension 6/1 ew
19.40 Barye 7/1 ew
Good Luck if you follow and remember to keep an eye on our tweets through the day for any selections, race information or potential lays. You can set up a notification everytime we tweet so you don't miss anything by going on our profile homepage, pressing the settings button which looks like a cog-wheel and pressing 'turn on notiffications.' Then again, why you would want me spamming your phone every five minutes I don't know! Good luck if you go with us today, more profit yesterday and long may it continue.
THT
Monday 4 August 2014
Tuesday 5th August
Very good start yesterday with our IWAC going in at 10/1. We made a big deal of the sire stats on blog and they paid off, Zebedee offspring now 3/3 over 6f on polytrack and a foal by the same sire also took a race later on the card with a half sibling in behind in 2nd. He is a sire to follow this all wether season over autumn and winter. Anyway we also landed a good lay posted on Twitter but after that the NAP could only manage 3rd and Baars Causeway still can't win so a bit of a disappointing end but more profit and we increased our lead on the tipping blog for August. Rinsed the Kempton card again tomorrow and our thoughts are below.
18.00 - Ajig has won at the course and went close last time but has been beaten a cumulative total of over 30 lengths on her two C/D runs. One or two potential improvers in here but I'm going with the more solid option in the shape of Plucky Dip. The only course and distance winner in the field, the John Ryan trained gelding arguably ran a career best last time in a much higher grade when finishing 2L behind a Haggas horse that has since won on the bridle off a mark of 83. His official mark is 62, though this is a Classified Stakes and he receives 7lbs from the 4yos as do the other 3yos in race. However he may prove a bit better than this grade in time and will hopefully be a nice price when the markets are formed. The jockey booking of in form William Buick also looks significant who had a double here from two rides yesterday. A very solid selection to start the card off I think and today's NAP.
18.30 - Godolphin run two here and I am going to have a chancey play on the white cap Momayyaz. She ran on well when the penny dropped on debut though the stablemate Rapprochement had already flown to win by a devastating 11L. However that horse has since been pitched into Group 3 company at Goodwood when well beaten after being very badly hampered and eased down and interesting to see where he goes next as is clearly highly regarded. Anyway Momayyaz should handle the surface looking at her pedigree and should have come on a lot for the debut run. The capable young rider can claim a very handy 7lbs here which may make the difference and with the trainers 'second strings' beating the first string 37% of the time in the past year, the white cap might be coming home in front of the blue once more for a trainer who has a superb SR of 30% at Kempton. Another interesting stat is his runners who finished second on debut on turf then switched to AW for second run have a 49% SR with 24 of the last 25 runners coming 1st or 2nd, so I think we can at least be hopeful of a run for our money. Just a chancey one though as I have said, forecast price is 6/1 and will at least be a good each way bet to nothing though a few unexposed ones in here.
19.00 - James Fanshawe is a man in form and had a winner and a nose second here yesterday. His handicap debutants perform exceptionally well and in this weak looking race, Swordbearer catches the eye. He ran his best maiden run over C/D and has to be of interest at 15/2 if showing improvement for handicap debut off what could be a very lenient mark of 70. The main danger is Gosden's.
20.30 - Dire Straits makes appeal for a yard in form in the shape of Chris Wall. The young lad in the saddle has also had a great season and the pair have a 33% SR in AW handicaps. He takes off 3lbs meaning this horse has been let loose off 60 and is stepped up significantly in trip from a mile to a mile and a half and being by Teofilo, this is sure to bring about improvement. While having shown little so far this colt is related to AW winners and the surface should suit on his polytrack debut and despite being short enough at 7/1 based on form alone, that price could look silly if today is the day.
21.00 Good race to end and am sure many will be on Sleep Walk who could be well ahead of the handicapper but I fancy taking a chance on a horse that has somehow been priced up at 33/1. Meritocracy is one of two C/D winners in the field but his recent turf form has tailed off slightly. However he has been running in better races of late and returning to the AW will be the key to improved form today I think. He is now off 82, which is 3lb below his last winning mark (over C/D) and his course form reads 311, that 3rd when only going down by a length on debut. The biggest danger is Dinneratmidnight for me, I think there are doubts about the surface for the jolly and needs to improve against horses rated up to 20lb higher though that said, she won very cheekily last time. The unexposed ones worry me a tad but if this horse is sparked by the return to all-weather then this is one of the best 33/1 shots you will find all week.
All today's are chancey to be honest except the NAP which I think is quite solid. A maiden punt and two horses that need to improve for handicap debut could well be hit or miss before finishing with the each way bet of the week, in my humble opinion at least.
18.00 Plucky Dip 3/1 NAP - 3rd
18.30 Momayyaz 6/1 ew - WINNER
19.00 Sword Bearer 10/1 ew - 2nd
20.30 Dire Straits 7/1 ew IWAC
21.00 Meritocracy 33/1 ew NB - 3rd
One from the tracker too in the shape of Mecca's Mirage in the 18.45 but not backing as I am sure I have heard somewhere that she needs a wind op so best left alone until hearing differently though one to maybe monitor in the market anyway just in case.
Good Luck if you follow, gone with smaller stakes today as generally quite speculative selections, so go easy.
THT
18.00 - Ajig has won at the course and went close last time but has been beaten a cumulative total of over 30 lengths on her two C/D runs. One or two potential improvers in here but I'm going with the more solid option in the shape of Plucky Dip. The only course and distance winner in the field, the John Ryan trained gelding arguably ran a career best last time in a much higher grade when finishing 2L behind a Haggas horse that has since won on the bridle off a mark of 83. His official mark is 62, though this is a Classified Stakes and he receives 7lbs from the 4yos as do the other 3yos in race. However he may prove a bit better than this grade in time and will hopefully be a nice price when the markets are formed. The jockey booking of in form William Buick also looks significant who had a double here from two rides yesterday. A very solid selection to start the card off I think and today's NAP.
18.30 - Godolphin run two here and I am going to have a chancey play on the white cap Momayyaz. She ran on well when the penny dropped on debut though the stablemate Rapprochement had already flown to win by a devastating 11L. However that horse has since been pitched into Group 3 company at Goodwood when well beaten after being very badly hampered and eased down and interesting to see where he goes next as is clearly highly regarded. Anyway Momayyaz should handle the surface looking at her pedigree and should have come on a lot for the debut run. The capable young rider can claim a very handy 7lbs here which may make the difference and with the trainers 'second strings' beating the first string 37% of the time in the past year, the white cap might be coming home in front of the blue once more for a trainer who has a superb SR of 30% at Kempton. Another interesting stat is his runners who finished second on debut on turf then switched to AW for second run have a 49% SR with 24 of the last 25 runners coming 1st or 2nd, so I think we can at least be hopeful of a run for our money. Just a chancey one though as I have said, forecast price is 6/1 and will at least be a good each way bet to nothing though a few unexposed ones in here.
19.00 - James Fanshawe is a man in form and had a winner and a nose second here yesterday. His handicap debutants perform exceptionally well and in this weak looking race, Swordbearer catches the eye. He ran his best maiden run over C/D and has to be of interest at 15/2 if showing improvement for handicap debut off what could be a very lenient mark of 70. The main danger is Gosden's.
20.30 - Dire Straits makes appeal for a yard in form in the shape of Chris Wall. The young lad in the saddle has also had a great season and the pair have a 33% SR in AW handicaps. He takes off 3lbs meaning this horse has been let loose off 60 and is stepped up significantly in trip from a mile to a mile and a half and being by Teofilo, this is sure to bring about improvement. While having shown little so far this colt is related to AW winners and the surface should suit on his polytrack debut and despite being short enough at 7/1 based on form alone, that price could look silly if today is the day.
21.00 Good race to end and am sure many will be on Sleep Walk who could be well ahead of the handicapper but I fancy taking a chance on a horse that has somehow been priced up at 33/1. Meritocracy is one of two C/D winners in the field but his recent turf form has tailed off slightly. However he has been running in better races of late and returning to the AW will be the key to improved form today I think. He is now off 82, which is 3lb below his last winning mark (over C/D) and his course form reads 311, that 3rd when only going down by a length on debut. The biggest danger is Dinneratmidnight for me, I think there are doubts about the surface for the jolly and needs to improve against horses rated up to 20lb higher though that said, she won very cheekily last time. The unexposed ones worry me a tad but if this horse is sparked by the return to all-weather then this is one of the best 33/1 shots you will find all week.
All today's are chancey to be honest except the NAP which I think is quite solid. A maiden punt and two horses that need to improve for handicap debut could well be hit or miss before finishing with the each way bet of the week, in my humble opinion at least.
18.00 Plucky Dip 3/1 NAP - 3rd
18.30 Momayyaz 6/1 ew - WINNER
19.00 Sword Bearer 10/1 ew - 2nd
20.30 Dire Straits 7/1 ew IWAC
21.00 Meritocracy 33/1 ew NB - 3rd
One from the tracker too in the shape of Mecca's Mirage in the 18.45 but not backing as I am sure I have heard somewhere that she needs a wind op so best left alone until hearing differently though one to maybe monitor in the market anyway just in case.
Good Luck if you follow, gone with smaller stakes today as generally quite speculative selections, so go easy.
THT
Sunday 3 August 2014
Monday 4th August
Thankfully I went half stakes yesterday as it turned out to be a typical Sunday, don't think I will punt Sunday's anymore unless I am really sweet on something. We are top of the pile on Niall's blog and intend to stay there this month. 8/8 months ended in profit on there and with the bright start to this month we have made it a good chance of 9/9. Tomorrow's selections and the reasoning below. I love punting at Kempton, always seem to do well there and while the card isn't awe inspiring tomorrow I fancy one or two.
The first of those is Spring Loaded in the opening maiden. I don't like guessy punts like this usually and I rarely bet in maidens but this runner catches the eye. Ran below market expectations on debut when well punted finishing a close up last of four. The winner of the race and the 2nd have since ran well again, the 2nd subsequently winning and then running well in a higher grade handicap. This is a maiden but it looks weak and very winnable, especially as the step up to 6f is sure to suit as he wasn't given a hard time by Ryan Moore on debut yet finished well when the penny dropped. However the real reason I am especially sweet on this runner is stats based. Firstly jockey/trainer combination is 29% on the all weather which is eye catching but the sire stats are what got me. 33% SR on the all weather for £1 LSP of £47. He is a first season sire making a big impact on the polytrack and his foals are 2/2 at 6f on the all weather. At a forecasted price of 10/1, with the debut under his belt, step up in trip and tackling a new surface, I will be having a right old bash each way if he opens anything like that.
A nice little handicap is the 15.45. Messila Star is a worthy favourite based on his last run alone behind subsequent listed runner up Tenor, that's good form indeed in the context of this 0-75 race. Anya for Henry Candy will surely be winning soon off 72 but hopefully it isn't today as I'm taking a chance on Lady Cecil's Equitable. This son of Dansili was backed as if defeat was out of the question on debut returning an even money favourite when leading close home after taking a wide course throughout. The way he finished his race was very encouraging. Three horses behind subsequently have won and now rated between 75-80 so off 75 tomorrow you would be hopeful he could do some damage. That said, he actually has a generous 7lbs weight for age allowance meaning his mark is effectively 68 which judged on that debut form, he is very capable of winning off. He has however since ran on turf three times and has ran poorly. I won't make excuses but they were on different ground over a few different trips on turf, but it's the return to the polytrack that has got me interested today. Going right handed shouldn't be a problem as his sire's offspring perform marginally better right handed and the incredible strike rates of the jockey/trainer on the polytrack is what drew me in. Lady Cecil and James Doyle polytrack form reads 13312211242512 for a 36% win SR and 86% place SR. They mean business when they team up on the artifical surface and with this horse returning to the polytrack off a mark he can exploit, 11/1 looks big and I'll be having a little go each way though the favourite is the one to beat.
I think the handicapper has made a terrible mistake only increasing Lady Horatia's handicap rating by a 1lb for her last race. I have had a good look through the form and I am convinced that 85 underestimates this lovely big grey filly. Let's look at the last race. A 0-95 at Newmarket. Despite pulling Dwyer's arms out throughout the first half of a slowly run race, she stayed on well from the midfield to finish a solid third behind Athenian who went up to 96 for that win. She also beat a Godolhin horse rated 94 who has since ran a solid race in the Stewards Cup. The race before she got a good gallop which she probably enjoys and stormed home very well inside the final furlong after being switched and not having the clearest of runs almost catching the winner who went up to 92 for that win and also ran at Goodwood earlier this week. Worth noting that run was after missing the break by five lengths. She is dropped in grade today, is unexposed on the surface (but has run a solid race on it before) and unexposed at 6f and I think she is a cut above this field though we haven't seen the best of one or two of these to be fair. That said she has the best form on offer and if settling a bit better with a decent gallop that hopefully will be set by Bowstar, she has a favourite's chance. I think 9/4 is about fair and maybe even that is generous? 4/1 available in a few places and that is value to me, today's NAP and it's a strong one.
Find it quite miraculous that Baars Causeway hasn't yet managed to win a race. She is again dropped in class and certainly has the right man in the saddle and she really should be shedding her maiden tag in this desperate affair. The two dangers are the handicap debutants but stats for those aren't inspiring and at this level it is always a bit guessy but surely the filly won't find a better opportunity. Her European pedigree is certainly interesting if not inspiring but she ran some huge races as a 2yo. She was 3L behind dual Group 3 winning J Wonder in a maiden at Newbury, finished 2L behind Group 3 winning Amazing Maria as well has having the beating of many horses now rated in the 80's and 90's. She went down by a short head and half a length in two races in her first year but hasn't fired at all in her second season. That short head defeat was here over the 7f in this class and despite running nothing more than an okay race when last here, she is now on a very exploitable mark of 63 with conditions optimum and very beatable opposition. Not having her out the places and I fancy her to win this. 11/1.
Selections:
14.15 Spring Loaded 10/1 ew - WINNER
15.45 Equitable 11/1 ew - NR
17.15 Lady Horatia 4/1 NAP
17.50 Baars Causeway 11/1 NB
Good Luck if you like the look of any of these and take the plunge with us.
THT
The first of those is Spring Loaded in the opening maiden. I don't like guessy punts like this usually and I rarely bet in maidens but this runner catches the eye. Ran below market expectations on debut when well punted finishing a close up last of four. The winner of the race and the 2nd have since ran well again, the 2nd subsequently winning and then running well in a higher grade handicap. This is a maiden but it looks weak and very winnable, especially as the step up to 6f is sure to suit as he wasn't given a hard time by Ryan Moore on debut yet finished well when the penny dropped. However the real reason I am especially sweet on this runner is stats based. Firstly jockey/trainer combination is 29% on the all weather which is eye catching but the sire stats are what got me. 33% SR on the all weather for £1 LSP of £47. He is a first season sire making a big impact on the polytrack and his foals are 2/2 at 6f on the all weather. At a forecasted price of 10/1, with the debut under his belt, step up in trip and tackling a new surface, I will be having a right old bash each way if he opens anything like that.
A nice little handicap is the 15.45. Messila Star is a worthy favourite based on his last run alone behind subsequent listed runner up Tenor, that's good form indeed in the context of this 0-75 race. Anya for Henry Candy will surely be winning soon off 72 but hopefully it isn't today as I'm taking a chance on Lady Cecil's Equitable. This son of Dansili was backed as if defeat was out of the question on debut returning an even money favourite when leading close home after taking a wide course throughout. The way he finished his race was very encouraging. Three horses behind subsequently have won and now rated between 75-80 so off 75 tomorrow you would be hopeful he could do some damage. That said, he actually has a generous 7lbs weight for age allowance meaning his mark is effectively 68 which judged on that debut form, he is very capable of winning off. He has however since ran on turf three times and has ran poorly. I won't make excuses but they were on different ground over a few different trips on turf, but it's the return to the polytrack that has got me interested today. Going right handed shouldn't be a problem as his sire's offspring perform marginally better right handed and the incredible strike rates of the jockey/trainer on the polytrack is what drew me in. Lady Cecil and James Doyle polytrack form reads 13312211242512 for a 36% win SR and 86% place SR. They mean business when they team up on the artifical surface and with this horse returning to the polytrack off a mark he can exploit, 11/1 looks big and I'll be having a little go each way though the favourite is the one to beat.
I think the handicapper has made a terrible mistake only increasing Lady Horatia's handicap rating by a 1lb for her last race. I have had a good look through the form and I am convinced that 85 underestimates this lovely big grey filly. Let's look at the last race. A 0-95 at Newmarket. Despite pulling Dwyer's arms out throughout the first half of a slowly run race, she stayed on well from the midfield to finish a solid third behind Athenian who went up to 96 for that win. She also beat a Godolhin horse rated 94 who has since ran a solid race in the Stewards Cup. The race before she got a good gallop which she probably enjoys and stormed home very well inside the final furlong after being switched and not having the clearest of runs almost catching the winner who went up to 92 for that win and also ran at Goodwood earlier this week. Worth noting that run was after missing the break by five lengths. She is dropped in grade today, is unexposed on the surface (but has run a solid race on it before) and unexposed at 6f and I think she is a cut above this field though we haven't seen the best of one or two of these to be fair. That said she has the best form on offer and if settling a bit better with a decent gallop that hopefully will be set by Bowstar, she has a favourite's chance. I think 9/4 is about fair and maybe even that is generous? 4/1 available in a few places and that is value to me, today's NAP and it's a strong one.
Find it quite miraculous that Baars Causeway hasn't yet managed to win a race. She is again dropped in class and certainly has the right man in the saddle and she really should be shedding her maiden tag in this desperate affair. The two dangers are the handicap debutants but stats for those aren't inspiring and at this level it is always a bit guessy but surely the filly won't find a better opportunity. Her European pedigree is certainly interesting if not inspiring but she ran some huge races as a 2yo. She was 3L behind dual Group 3 winning J Wonder in a maiden at Newbury, finished 2L behind Group 3 winning Amazing Maria as well has having the beating of many horses now rated in the 80's and 90's. She went down by a short head and half a length in two races in her first year but hasn't fired at all in her second season. That short head defeat was here over the 7f in this class and despite running nothing more than an okay race when last here, she is now on a very exploitable mark of 63 with conditions optimum and very beatable opposition. Not having her out the places and I fancy her to win this. 11/1.
Selections:
14.15 Spring Loaded 10/1 ew - WINNER
15.45 Equitable 11/1 ew - NR
17.15 Lady Horatia 4/1 NAP
17.50 Baars Causeway 11/1 NB
Good Luck if you like the look of any of these and take the plunge with us.
THT
Saturday 2 August 2014
Sunday 3rd August
Well yesterday was eventful. We started with a much improved run from the IWAC Slip Sliding Away to nab a place for good returns at 28/1. The winner for Nicholls was well backed as has been last twice and finally repayed the faith to many. Then on to 16/1 winner Double Bluff who did it bloody well, nice horse. Hard luck for King's Fete who looks a good animal in behind, just had too much to do but wasn't his day either way. That was the NB landed. Then it was NAP time, and Epsom Hill won by 10L, devastating the field in a monsoon at Thirsk, not many NAP's win that easy but nice when they do, even sweeter at 8/1. So that was the each way treble landed after an hour. We got further winners through the day including the impressive Nassau champion and ended Glorious Goodwood with a bang. Our winners over the festival were at 11/2, 11/1, 16/1, 18/1 and 22/1 with more place money than I care to mention. Overall, it was a great week and topped off with one of my most profitable days punting personally. On the day we had 11/2, 8/1, 11/1 and 16/1 winners with place money at 6/1 and 28/1 to boot.
On to Sunday. No Goodwood sadly but picked out three for the blog. Any new followers and readers please don;t expect miracles. This is a Sunday after all and bookies will be waiting, certainly a day to be cautious with your stakes.
Dinkum Diamond 15.05 arguably ran a career best last time behind Extortionist who has since gone on to win at Goodwood earlier this week. He flew home over 5f and the step back up in trip may be ideal. He is the best horse in the race and 6/1 looks very fair for an each way bet to nothing for a yard that never seem out of form. Sir Maximilian may give him most to think about.
Cool Sky 16.45 was progressive when last seen on the flat when winning on the bridle off 81 at Sandown last year. He went jumping for McCain and won a race so will be fit from that and comes here with a real chance. The ground should be perfect for him and the race looks winnable and if in the same form as when last seen on the flat he will be hard to beat. 6/1 very fair as an each way bet.
Dangerous Age wasn't fully suited by the extended 5 and half furlongs at Bath on comeback run for new trainer last time but at least that would have blown away the cobwebs after a few months off. The horse is back down to last winning mark though that was on the polytrack but this heavily raced sort can run a big race and is still unexposed on turf. The jockey booking is very notable too, I can't ever recall Kirby riding for yard who showed their horses are in rude health with a double at Lingfield last night. As competitive 5f handicaps go, this isn't especially strong and is there for the taking. I think the filly may have a few lbs in hand and I fancy her to be right there at the business end. 9/1 16.25.
Finally I am going to give a chance to Graphene in the 17.25. He won three starts back and just hasn't looked the same horse in last two outings but the reason may have been the ground. His win was on good to soft and if that's what it turns up as today then 12/1 looks appealling. With apprentice find of the season Cam Hardie taking off 5lbs he can run off his last winning mark and may put up a bold showing if beneffiting from a bit of juice underfoot.
Selections:
15.05 Dinkum Diamond 6/1 ew NB
16.25 Dangerous Age 9/1 ew NAP
16.45 Cool Sky 6/1 ew IWAC
17.25 Graphene 12/1 ew
As I say go easy. I have gone half usual stakes as it is very trappy stuff and I am sure there will be better betting opportunities in higher class racing throughout the week. All bookies money after yesterday anyway.
THT
On to Sunday. No Goodwood sadly but picked out three for the blog. Any new followers and readers please don;t expect miracles. This is a Sunday after all and bookies will be waiting, certainly a day to be cautious with your stakes.
Dinkum Diamond 15.05 arguably ran a career best last time behind Extortionist who has since gone on to win at Goodwood earlier this week. He flew home over 5f and the step back up in trip may be ideal. He is the best horse in the race and 6/1 looks very fair for an each way bet to nothing for a yard that never seem out of form. Sir Maximilian may give him most to think about.
Cool Sky 16.45 was progressive when last seen on the flat when winning on the bridle off 81 at Sandown last year. He went jumping for McCain and won a race so will be fit from that and comes here with a real chance. The ground should be perfect for him and the race looks winnable and if in the same form as when last seen on the flat he will be hard to beat. 6/1 very fair as an each way bet.
Dangerous Age wasn't fully suited by the extended 5 and half furlongs at Bath on comeback run for new trainer last time but at least that would have blown away the cobwebs after a few months off. The horse is back down to last winning mark though that was on the polytrack but this heavily raced sort can run a big race and is still unexposed on turf. The jockey booking is very notable too, I can't ever recall Kirby riding for yard who showed their horses are in rude health with a double at Lingfield last night. As competitive 5f handicaps go, this isn't especially strong and is there for the taking. I think the filly may have a few lbs in hand and I fancy her to be right there at the business end. 9/1 16.25.
Finally I am going to give a chance to Graphene in the 17.25. He won three starts back and just hasn't looked the same horse in last two outings but the reason may have been the ground. His win was on good to soft and if that's what it turns up as today then 12/1 looks appealling. With apprentice find of the season Cam Hardie taking off 5lbs he can run off his last winning mark and may put up a bold showing if beneffiting from a bit of juice underfoot.
Selections:
15.05 Dinkum Diamond 6/1 ew NB
16.25 Dangerous Age 9/1 ew NAP
16.45 Cool Sky 6/1 ew IWAC
17.25 Graphene 12/1 ew
As I say go easy. I have gone half usual stakes as it is very trappy stuff and I am sure there will be better betting opportunities in higher class racing throughout the week. All bookies money after yesterday anyway.
THT
Friday 1 August 2014
Saturday 2nd August
Not a great deal of time to write a full blog today but will still post selections with quick few reasons for choices. Overall been a very profitable Goodwood so far with 14/1 and 22/1 winners with plenty of place money to boot. Not the best yesterday but expect better today.
Race 1 - Slip Sliding Away 25/1 - 4-7 over C/D, claimer takes off 3lbs putting him back to a mark of 82 which he was rated when losing by a short head over inadequate 5f earlier in season. Up in trip, 3lbs off his back and can run as he was expected earlier in week when backed from 14/1 into 13/2 joint favourite for a trainer that does exceptionally well here. Confessional the danger.
Race 2 - Double Bluff 16/1 - Career best when stepped up to 12f last time in a stronger race lumping 10st. Only beaten by a very progressive horse I really like, probably Sir Mark's best, the gigantic Pallasator. Was clear of the third and stayed on really well after attempting to make all. Mr Fanning on board, dropped in grade and has won at the track, some unexposed ones in here and I have Oasis Fantasy down as the main danger but Double Bluff is the no brainer each way play here for me.
Race 3 - The worst Nassau I can remember for a while. Surprised Sultanina isn't favourite so on that basis she is value to me at 9/2 and wouldn't rule out Amazing Maria back in trip as she is the only course winner in the race. If there were 8 runners I would pile into Sultanina as an each way bet to nothing but as there isn't I doubt I will play though she is my likely winner.
Race 4 - Suprised Muthmir opened at 7/1, and to be honest I am still surprised there is 11/2 out there. Very worthy favourite, looked very good at York didn't he? A rating of 92 surely underestimates him and despite the fact he will need a lot of luck, there are no doubts in my mind that this horse is the one to beat. That said, this is the Stewards Cup with 28 runners, a lot of top class sprinters in the field and a bit of a lottery in all honesty. Discussiontofollow is a horse I have followed all season and I'm not deserting him now so he will have some money each way and I know it's terribly boring but I also like another at the top of the market in Alben Star. Asphan Sam and Seeking Magic also have sound claims at slightly bigger prices so at very small stakes I have backed the first three mentioned each way and some tiny combo forecasts and tricasts with the others too; it's a complete lottery make no mistake about it. If Muthmir gets a clear run however, then he'll be hard to peg back imo.
Race 5 - Secret Brief was well backed on debut when running an encouraging third over 6f at Ripon. The Shamardal colt cost £150,000 and connections could start recouping that here. The horse lost action on debut after about a furlong when in the lead, watched it about five times and still can't work out quite what happened. I think the horse jumped at a shadow and then stumbled but I don't really know, maybe Charlie Johnston can enlighten us on the Morning Line? Anyway the horse lost it's postition before staying on again at the end and from stall two, Joe can grab an early position and hopefully stay there this time providing the horse doesn;t fancy another schooling session at the furlong marker. Depends on price though, forecast is 14/1, can't imagine it will be above 8/1, I will take 6/1, no lower as a speculative ew punt in this maiden.
Race 6 - No Bet.
Race 7 - Outer Space still a maiden but some big runs in top races and 83 looks very workable, showed some promise last time too. Groundworker only C/D winner in field and better expected last time when ran a bit flat, wide open and not one I fancy enough to part with my cash just yet, but these two are ones to have a close look at in the prelims.
Tracker:
15.05 Thirsk - Epsom Hill 8/1 NAP - WINNER (13L clear of the third and was well backed)
17.40 Doncaster - Monarch Maid 6/1 (Heavily gambled last time when improved form but ran into one)
20.30 Lingfield - Orders From Rome 11/2 - Placed (Flew home off declining mark lto, new trip, signif. jock booking)
20.30 Lingfield - Bridge That Gap 6/1 (Stormed home off last winning mark lto, dropped in grade, C/D win)
Backed all of the above each way with a reverse forecast in the 20.30 to boot.
Fahey singles and ew trixie:
2.55 Lacing 16/1 ew
3.05 Bayan Kasirga 18/1 ew
6.15 Triggers Broom 8/1 ew
Goodwood selections and coverbets:
14.05 Slip Sliding Away 28/1 ew IWAC - Placed // Confessional 20/1 ew
14.40 Double Bluff 16/1 ew NB - WINNER // Oasis Fantasy 9/1 ew
15.15 Sultanina 11/2 - WINNER
16.25 Secret Brief 10/1 ew
Tracker not been firing of late but really fancy the ones from it tomorrow, am convinced I have the winner of the 20.30, otherwise I may as well give in! GL if you follow us with any.
THT
Race 1 - Slip Sliding Away 25/1 - 4-7 over C/D, claimer takes off 3lbs putting him back to a mark of 82 which he was rated when losing by a short head over inadequate 5f earlier in season. Up in trip, 3lbs off his back and can run as he was expected earlier in week when backed from 14/1 into 13/2 joint favourite for a trainer that does exceptionally well here. Confessional the danger.
Race 2 - Double Bluff 16/1 - Career best when stepped up to 12f last time in a stronger race lumping 10st. Only beaten by a very progressive horse I really like, probably Sir Mark's best, the gigantic Pallasator. Was clear of the third and stayed on really well after attempting to make all. Mr Fanning on board, dropped in grade and has won at the track, some unexposed ones in here and I have Oasis Fantasy down as the main danger but Double Bluff is the no brainer each way play here for me.
Race 3 - The worst Nassau I can remember for a while. Surprised Sultanina isn't favourite so on that basis she is value to me at 9/2 and wouldn't rule out Amazing Maria back in trip as she is the only course winner in the race. If there were 8 runners I would pile into Sultanina as an each way bet to nothing but as there isn't I doubt I will play though she is my likely winner.
Race 4 - Suprised Muthmir opened at 7/1, and to be honest I am still surprised there is 11/2 out there. Very worthy favourite, looked very good at York didn't he? A rating of 92 surely underestimates him and despite the fact he will need a lot of luck, there are no doubts in my mind that this horse is the one to beat. That said, this is the Stewards Cup with 28 runners, a lot of top class sprinters in the field and a bit of a lottery in all honesty. Discussiontofollow is a horse I have followed all season and I'm not deserting him now so he will have some money each way and I know it's terribly boring but I also like another at the top of the market in Alben Star. Asphan Sam and Seeking Magic also have sound claims at slightly bigger prices so at very small stakes I have backed the first three mentioned each way and some tiny combo forecasts and tricasts with the others too; it's a complete lottery make no mistake about it. If Muthmir gets a clear run however, then he'll be hard to peg back imo.
Race 5 - Secret Brief was well backed on debut when running an encouraging third over 6f at Ripon. The Shamardal colt cost £150,000 and connections could start recouping that here. The horse lost action on debut after about a furlong when in the lead, watched it about five times and still can't work out quite what happened. I think the horse jumped at a shadow and then stumbled but I don't really know, maybe Charlie Johnston can enlighten us on the Morning Line? Anyway the horse lost it's postition before staying on again at the end and from stall two, Joe can grab an early position and hopefully stay there this time providing the horse doesn;t fancy another schooling session at the furlong marker. Depends on price though, forecast is 14/1, can't imagine it will be above 8/1, I will take 6/1, no lower as a speculative ew punt in this maiden.
Race 6 - No Bet.
Race 7 - Outer Space still a maiden but some big runs in top races and 83 looks very workable, showed some promise last time too. Groundworker only C/D winner in field and better expected last time when ran a bit flat, wide open and not one I fancy enough to part with my cash just yet, but these two are ones to have a close look at in the prelims.
Tracker:
15.05 Thirsk - Epsom Hill 8/1 NAP - WINNER (13L clear of the third and was well backed)
17.40 Doncaster - Monarch Maid 6/1 (Heavily gambled last time when improved form but ran into one)
20.30 Lingfield - Orders From Rome 11/2 - Placed (Flew home off declining mark lto, new trip, signif. jock booking)
20.30 Lingfield - Bridge That Gap 6/1 (Stormed home off last winning mark lto, dropped in grade, C/D win)
Backed all of the above each way with a reverse forecast in the 20.30 to boot.
Fahey singles and ew trixie:
2.55 Lacing 16/1 ew
3.05 Bayan Kasirga 18/1 ew
6.15 Triggers Broom 8/1 ew
Goodwood selections and coverbets:
14.05 Slip Sliding Away 28/1 ew IWAC - Placed // Confessional 20/1 ew
14.40 Double Bluff 16/1 ew NB - WINNER // Oasis Fantasy 9/1 ew
15.15 Sultanina 11/2 - WINNER
16.25 Secret Brief 10/1 ew
Tracker not been firing of late but really fancy the ones from it tomorrow, am convinced I have the winner of the 20.30, otherwise I may as well give in! GL if you follow us with any.
THT
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