After a very promising start yesterday, our Lucky 15 ended in disappointment. Hopefully it can be third time Lucky, as we are all very happy with our selections today.
Salisbury 14.00 - Dream Wild @ 10/11 - @kris1179
York 14.45 - Indian Chief @ 3/1 - @tomquinny2
York 15.50 - Polski Max @ 5/1 - @_JamesStevenson
York 16.25 - Parbold @ 3/1 - @THTRacing
A £1 win Lucky 15 returns £559.
Good Luck today.
THT
Thursday 16 May 2013
Tuesday 14 May 2013
Wednesday 15th May
Yesterday was appalling and improvement is clearly needed. The massive rainfall didn't help some runners and one runner burst a blood vessel in his race, though no excuses really. Was praying for a solid start to the new Lucky 15 but it wasn't meant to be though I am still confident that over a few weeks you will see good profit following them as we all know what we are doing. We all fancied some better value today so we recommend a smaller stakes each way Lucky 15 today and the selections are as follows.
York 15.15 - Lethal Force @ 20/1 - @tomquinny2 - (Guest Tipster) - 2nd
York 15.50 - Opera Box @ 15/2 - @kris1179 - Unplaced
York 17.00 - Right Touch @ 8/1 - @_JamesStevenson - Unplaced
Bath 20.40 - Stonecrabstomorrow @ 8/1 - @THTRacing
Pays £5855 for a 25p e/w stake at best prices.
Good Luck.
Decided to back STONECRABSTOMORROW as he will pop up one or two times this summer and I can't see why he doesn't have a great chance to do so tomorrow. He runs pretty well on any ground and overcame a 7 month absence to run very well when unfancied earlier this month. He is sent out again for his second start for his new yard and as he will come on for the last run, he should be going close in what looks a weaker race, despite the number of runners. Backed him as an e/w single as well as in L15 as 8/1 and bookies paying 4 places at 1/4 odds means we will still get a nice 2/1 winner should he only place. Has to be right there in the closing stages and might just stick his neck out.
THT
York 15.15 - Lethal Force @ 20/1 - @tomquinny2 - (Guest Tipster) - 2nd
York 15.50 - Opera Box @ 15/2 - @kris1179 - Unplaced
York 17.00 - Right Touch @ 8/1 - @_JamesStevenson - Unplaced
Bath 20.40 - Stonecrabstomorrow @ 8/1 - @THTRacing
Pays £5855 for a 25p e/w stake at best prices.
Good Luck.
Decided to back STONECRABSTOMORROW as he will pop up one or two times this summer and I can't see why he doesn't have a great chance to do so tomorrow. He runs pretty well on any ground and overcame a 7 month absence to run very well when unfancied earlier this month. He is sent out again for his second start for his new yard and as he will come on for the last run, he should be going close in what looks a weaker race, despite the number of runners. Backed him as an e/w single as well as in L15 as 8/1 and bookies paying 4 places at 1/4 odds means we will still get a nice 2/1 winner should he only place. Has to be right there in the closing stages and might just stick his neck out.
THT
Monday 13 May 2013
Tuesday 14th May
Three seconds yesterday which was very frustrating but nothing we can do now. Even more annoying was that I highlighted both Skytrain and Canyari but didn't back either then watched them both win, but that's racing I suppose.
On to Tuesday where I am delighted to be teaming up with both @kris1179 and @_JamesStevenson who most of you will know from Twitter. In case you don't, Kris is someone who has been on Twitter for a long time and has had great success. He is someone who really knows his stuff and I am always worried when he backs something in the same race as me when I have backed another horse, Kris usually being right! I have only recently seen James on Twitter after he landed some impressive winners at incredible odds. Somewhat of a long-shot specialist, he has taken Twitter by storm in recent weeks and I am delighted that he and Kris have agreed to offer their NAP each day for us. Kris and James and myself will each pick a selection as our NAP and put it forward to make a Lucky 15 along with another guest tipster from Twitter. The guest will be invited to offer their NAP and if successful will then nominate their NAP the next day and so on until one loses. We are all very hopeful you will make plenty of cash by following the Lucky 15 on a daily basis. I am looking forward to working with them both as well as our guests and I have every confidence that we can make this a big success.
The first guest tipster is @TomBullOfficial and we wish him the best of luck.
The selections:
15.10 Beverley - Divertimenti @ 7/4 - @JamesStevenson - 4th
15.30 Sedgefield - Zazamix @ 3/1 - @TomBullOfficial (Guest Tipster) - 4th
16.20 Wincanton - Velator @ 5/2 - @kris1179 - PU
20.10 Chepstow - Headline News @ 6/1 - @THTRacing - NR
We advise a £1 win bet on the Lucky 15 which returns £741.
Good Luck!
Aside from the team's Lucky 15:
ELEGANT OPHELIA looks worth an each way bet in the 19.40 Chepstow. After being given a non-trying ride last time, Kirby has been rightly given the boot and champion jockey Richard Hughes takes over for the first time. EO drops back to her ideal trip, shown by her very close third in her sole start over 10f and is just 1lb higher today with far more capable hands doing the steering. The softer ground wont bother her as shown by her second at Salisbury in very heavy ground and she could run a massive race at a big price. 14/1. Stag Hill may be the chief threat at a big price too, though the forecast softish ground is probably the main reason for his attractive 12/1.
HEADLINE NEWS looks a very generous price at 6/1, though very annoyed I missed 10's - ridiculous price. Her record at this level is 221, the defeats by half a length and a short head. She raced in a much better race last time which was back in September finishing a very creditable 5th at Newmarket just a couple of lengths off the pace. She has the 8 month break to overcome but her close second after a similar length break earlier in her career suggests this won't be a problem, and neither will the softish ground forecast. Chepstow 20.10.
CUSTEROFTHEWEST is a horse that I would not have backed had I not been told to do so by someone very reliable. The first time blinkers, the step down in class and the step up in trip are the three main reasons to why this one is expected to go well tomorrow and connections are hopeful of a big run.
SCHINKEN OTTO is 5lb below his last winning mark which was here at Sedgefield, his favourite racetrack. 7/1 is overpriced and he has to be of e/w interest despite the the fact that he isn't getting any younger. He is back in a lower grade and surely must go close, money coming for the veteran too so get on quick.
Other selections:
15.30 Sedgefield - Schinken Otto @ 7/1 e/w - Unplaced
15.50 Wincanton - Custerofthewest @ 7/1 e/w - Unplaced
19.40 Chepstow - Elegant Ophelia @ 14/1 e/w Unplaced
20.10 Chepstow - Headline News @ 6/1 e/w NR
As well as backing all of these as singles I am also having a tiny e/w Lucky 15 as more of a fun bet. 25p e/w returns a mighty £2910.
Good Luck.
THT
On to Tuesday where I am delighted to be teaming up with both @kris1179 and @_JamesStevenson who most of you will know from Twitter. In case you don't, Kris is someone who has been on Twitter for a long time and has had great success. He is someone who really knows his stuff and I am always worried when he backs something in the same race as me when I have backed another horse, Kris usually being right! I have only recently seen James on Twitter after he landed some impressive winners at incredible odds. Somewhat of a long-shot specialist, he has taken Twitter by storm in recent weeks and I am delighted that he and Kris have agreed to offer their NAP each day for us. Kris and James and myself will each pick a selection as our NAP and put it forward to make a Lucky 15 along with another guest tipster from Twitter. The guest will be invited to offer their NAP and if successful will then nominate their NAP the next day and so on until one loses. We are all very hopeful you will make plenty of cash by following the Lucky 15 on a daily basis. I am looking forward to working with them both as well as our guests and I have every confidence that we can make this a big success.
The first guest tipster is @TomBullOfficial and we wish him the best of luck.
The selections:
15.10 Beverley - Divertimenti @ 7/4 - @JamesStevenson - 4th
15.30 Sedgefield - Zazamix @ 3/1 - @TomBullOfficial (Guest Tipster) - 4th
16.20 Wincanton - Velator @ 5/2 - @kris1179 - PU
20.10 Chepstow - Headline News @ 6/1 - @THTRacing - NR
We advise a £1 win bet on the Lucky 15 which returns £741.
Good Luck!
Aside from the team's Lucky 15:
ELEGANT OPHELIA looks worth an each way bet in the 19.40 Chepstow. After being given a non-trying ride last time, Kirby has been rightly given the boot and champion jockey Richard Hughes takes over for the first time. EO drops back to her ideal trip, shown by her very close third in her sole start over 10f and is just 1lb higher today with far more capable hands doing the steering. The softer ground wont bother her as shown by her second at Salisbury in very heavy ground and she could run a massive race at a big price. 14/1. Stag Hill may be the chief threat at a big price too, though the forecast softish ground is probably the main reason for his attractive 12/1.
HEADLINE NEWS looks a very generous price at 6/1, though very annoyed I missed 10's - ridiculous price. Her record at this level is 221, the defeats by half a length and a short head. She raced in a much better race last time which was back in September finishing a very creditable 5th at Newmarket just a couple of lengths off the pace. She has the 8 month break to overcome but her close second after a similar length break earlier in her career suggests this won't be a problem, and neither will the softish ground forecast. Chepstow 20.10.
CUSTEROFTHEWEST is a horse that I would not have backed had I not been told to do so by someone very reliable. The first time blinkers, the step down in class and the step up in trip are the three main reasons to why this one is expected to go well tomorrow and connections are hopeful of a big run.
SCHINKEN OTTO is 5lb below his last winning mark which was here at Sedgefield, his favourite racetrack. 7/1 is overpriced and he has to be of e/w interest despite the the fact that he isn't getting any younger. He is back in a lower grade and surely must go close, money coming for the veteran too so get on quick.
Other selections:
15.30 Sedgefield - Schinken Otto @ 7/1 e/w - Unplaced
15.50 Wincanton - Custerofthewest @ 7/1 e/w - Unplaced
19.40 Chepstow - Elegant Ophelia @ 14/1 e/w Unplaced
20.10 Chepstow - Headline News @ 6/1 e/w NR
As well as backing all of these as singles I am also having a tiny e/w Lucky 15 as more of a fun bet. 25p e/w returns a mighty £2910.
Good Luck.
THT
Sunday 12 May 2013
Monday 13th May
Shocking week last week, struggled for winners and couldn't get any momentum and some bad luck thrown in for good measure. Today is a new day and a new week and will hopefully come back to form!
RED PALADIN won very gamely on his reappearance from a nine month break under a good ride from Amy Ryan. The pair team up again in a bigger field with the ground to suit perfectly. These races seem somewhat a lottery and RP will need more though he is open to big improvement as he will have come on a bunch for the run last time and can go close here. With bookies paying 4 places and this horse priced up at 9/1, you need to get on quick.
GRANDORIO won well enough last week to suggest he may not have finished winning yet. His in form trainer has sent him back out again before the handicapper penalises him and there looks to be nothing in his way on Monday; 2/1 may look huge come the off as he was merely pushed out last time when he scored with consummate ease.
APACHE GLORY is now 11lb higher than her first win three starts back. She has won two more since then, most impressively at 10f (today's trip) and can go in again on Monday. Andrea Atzeni makes the trip to Doncaster for just this one ride and as she has won off this mark and higher before, her winning run may yet continue. Despite only winning by a narrow margin last time she made up a ton of ground late on to cut them all down late and the extra furlong today will suit her just right, very fair price too, though this race is competitive.
Robert Tart's valuable 5lb claim means BRYNFORD runs off a 1lb lower mark than when he won cosily over track and trip two starts back so has to be right there on Monday. He was upped in trip after that running very well finishing only a couple off the pace in third and the step back today will suit him perfectly. The danger might be well-related Moma Lee should the money talk as she could be potentially very well treated. 9/2 is on the shorter side of what I had hoped but still looks worth the bet. (Moma Lee won)
As you know, backing a debutant is something I rarely do and usually advise against. However the in-form trainer Ralph Beckett has one tomorrow with a pedigree that screams speed. WEISSE SOCKEN which is German for White Socks is by Acclamation out of a 5f two year old winner (RPR 96) and already holds a Super Sprint entry meaning this one must be flying at home. Hannon's horse will be well supported and could well win but I fancy Beckett, who is operating at an impressive £1 level stakes profit of £65 this season, will have this one primed to perfection and in my eyes is very much the one to beat, could be a nice price too, will wait till prices released in the morning, but anything over 2/1 looks good to me. << The big danger is now a non runner and I have decided to back WS at 11/10 as I can't see past him now.
Singles:
15.15 Doncaster - Red Paladin @ 9/1 e/w 2nd
15.50 Doncaster - Grandorio @ 2/1 3rd
16.00 Wolverhampton - Brynford @ 9/2 7th
17.00 Doncaster - Apache Glory @ 11/4 2nd
17.50 Windsor - Weisse Socken @ 11/10 2nd
Double:
Grandorio/Apache Glory @ 10/1
Lucky 15:
Apache Glory, Weisse Socken, Grandorio, Brynford.
Pays £420 for a £1 win stake.
Good Luck all.
THT
RED PALADIN won very gamely on his reappearance from a nine month break under a good ride from Amy Ryan. The pair team up again in a bigger field with the ground to suit perfectly. These races seem somewhat a lottery and RP will need more though he is open to big improvement as he will have come on a bunch for the run last time and can go close here. With bookies paying 4 places and this horse priced up at 9/1, you need to get on quick.
GRANDORIO won well enough last week to suggest he may not have finished winning yet. His in form trainer has sent him back out again before the handicapper penalises him and there looks to be nothing in his way on Monday; 2/1 may look huge come the off as he was merely pushed out last time when he scored with consummate ease.
APACHE GLORY is now 11lb higher than her first win three starts back. She has won two more since then, most impressively at 10f (today's trip) and can go in again on Monday. Andrea Atzeni makes the trip to Doncaster for just this one ride and as she has won off this mark and higher before, her winning run may yet continue. Despite only winning by a narrow margin last time she made up a ton of ground late on to cut them all down late and the extra furlong today will suit her just right, very fair price too, though this race is competitive.
Robert Tart's valuable 5lb claim means BRYNFORD runs off a 1lb lower mark than when he won cosily over track and trip two starts back so has to be right there on Monday. He was upped in trip after that running very well finishing only a couple off the pace in third and the step back today will suit him perfectly. The danger might be well-related Moma Lee should the money talk as she could be potentially very well treated. 9/2 is on the shorter side of what I had hoped but still looks worth the bet. (Moma Lee won)
As you know, backing a debutant is something I rarely do and usually advise against. However the in-form trainer Ralph Beckett has one tomorrow with a pedigree that screams speed. WEISSE SOCKEN which is German for White Socks is by Acclamation out of a 5f two year old winner (RPR 96) and already holds a Super Sprint entry meaning this one must be flying at home. Hannon's horse will be well supported and could well win but I fancy Beckett, who is operating at an impressive £1 level stakes profit of £65 this season, will have this one primed to perfection and in my eyes is very much the one to beat, could be a nice price too, will wait till prices released in the morning, but anything over 2/1 looks good to me. << The big danger is now a non runner and I have decided to back WS at 11/10 as I can't see past him now.
Singles:
15.15 Doncaster - Red Paladin @ 9/1 e/w 2nd
15.50 Doncaster - Grandorio @ 2/1 3rd
16.00 Wolverhampton - Brynford @ 9/2 7th
17.00 Doncaster - Apache Glory @ 11/4 2nd
17.50 Windsor - Weisse Socken @ 11/10 2nd
Double:
Grandorio/Apache Glory @ 10/1
Lucky 15:
Apache Glory, Weisse Socken, Grandorio, Brynford.
Pays £420 for a £1 win stake.
Good Luck all.
THT
Thursday 9 May 2013
Friday 10th May
Hi all, thanks for checking out my blog. Unfortunately very short of time so explanations for my bets very brief, apologies!
The MOOSE goes at Chester and is unlikely to win. However he is always unlikely to win as he is highly tried and always a big price. Usually he out runs his price in a big way, for example his 50/1 second to none other than Sprinter Sacre as well as his massive performance a few weeks ago to land massive 28/1 odds for us. Bloody love him and will always back him till he retires. Flying very high today and hoping he runs well. Placing in this company would be astonishing, unthinkable he could win this, but if anyone can defy the odds it is this fella. I expect him to drift before the off but taken BOG and recommend you do too. 50/1.
REGAL DAN looks overpriced to me at 5's (I have him at about 3's) and looks worth a good e/w bet. This way we can break even for a place, make a good profit for a win. Stepping back in trip today will suit and he run very well on reappearance and can go very close despite a small penalty for his 1 length defeat on return.
After much debate also backed GANDALAK. Should be more to come and though this is competitive, conditions will suit and he looks a very fair price.
13.45 Chester - Gandalak @ 7/2
14.45 Chester - Mad Moose @ 50/1 e/w PLACED
19.40 Ascot - Regal Dan @ 5/1 e/w
Gandalak/Regal Dan double pays 26/1. << Has to be worth a couple of quid at least.
Good Luck. Oh if you are into golf then I am backing Henrik Stenson at 33/1 each way for the Players Champ!
THT
The MOOSE goes at Chester and is unlikely to win. However he is always unlikely to win as he is highly tried and always a big price. Usually he out runs his price in a big way, for example his 50/1 second to none other than Sprinter Sacre as well as his massive performance a few weeks ago to land massive 28/1 odds for us. Bloody love him and will always back him till he retires. Flying very high today and hoping he runs well. Placing in this company would be astonishing, unthinkable he could win this, but if anyone can defy the odds it is this fella. I expect him to drift before the off but taken BOG and recommend you do too. 50/1.
REGAL DAN looks overpriced to me at 5's (I have him at about 3's) and looks worth a good e/w bet. This way we can break even for a place, make a good profit for a win. Stepping back in trip today will suit and he run very well on reappearance and can go very close despite a small penalty for his 1 length defeat on return.
After much debate also backed GANDALAK. Should be more to come and though this is competitive, conditions will suit and he looks a very fair price.
13.45 Chester - Gandalak @ 7/2
14.45 Chester - Mad Moose @ 50/1 e/w PLACED
19.40 Ascot - Regal Dan @ 5/1 e/w
Gandalak/Regal Dan double pays 26/1. << Has to be worth a couple of quid at least.
Good Luck. Oh if you are into golf then I am backing Henrik Stenson at 33/1 each way for the Players Champ!
THT
Tuesday 7 May 2013
Wednesday 8th May
Same old story on Tuesday as we hit 1/2 on a monster 3-figure double. Lost count fo how many times this has happened! Anyway nice to see Danzoe win, a horse I really like and he gave a career best performace to win well at Yarmouth. On to Wednesday.
BUCKLAND I always back as he is a horse I love and always does better than people expect. He is all heart and is probably out of his depth tomorrow over a longer trip than he has ever tried before and will need to improve to land this. Hans Adielsson's stable star, he is a horse that ran seventeen races before finally getting off the mark over 5f at Wolves.He then had to wait another five races before his connections thought he might be suited by a significant step up in trip. This is what made the horse, as he rolled off a four-timer, his first at 1m2f in a Class 5 race, his second at 1m3f in a Class 4 race, his third at 1m4f in a Class 3 race and his forth in a Class 2 race back at 1m3f as he won so convincingly by 5 lengths merely pushed out the time before. He was then stepped up massively in trip to 2m and I must admit I doubted he could win that race and did not back him yet was nearly humbled as he ran a stormer just being nailed on the line, going down by a short head. He was then entered in the Group 3 Sagaro Stakes where he massively out ran his 33/1 SP only just missing out on third place. He has been stepped up again this time to 18f in the Chester Cup and Buick takes the ride. Realistically I can't see him winning though he has good place claims, then again he has surprised us all before and looks a fair price for a horse who is still improving. 14/1.
Was going to leave it at that but I couldn't resist a small e/w bet in the same race on SIMENON who looks overpriced to me. The two time Royal Ascot winner wasn't at his best at all on heavy ground over jumps in Ireland at the end of 2012 but makes the trip over to Chester today for the big race. The break would have freshened him up and Willie Mullins will ensure he is in prime conditions for Tuesday's race. His last flat race was a Group 1 in Ireland where he came a few lengths off the pace in 5th, in ground he isn't as useful on, and was staying on better than anything at the end. He will stay the trip today all week and offers no concerns in that department. His last two flat runs in England he has won, both at Royal Ascot within the space of four days, destroying the field on both occasions on ground he likes. For me he looks the value bet of the race, though many will argue the same with their own picks. Unlike Buckland I can see Simenon winning this and he has solid place claims in my opinion should he be race-fit on his return, though that is never a concern when a horse is trained with WPM. 12/1.
LILY EDGE is ahorse I backed to both her victories, both over today's distance. I backed her again the next time when she drifted like a barge right before the off from 5/2 fav to 7/1 and was ridden to lose. I explained what happened before and won;t dwell on it again but it was a ride that made no sense and the drift spoke volumes. She was upped in class the next time where she ran into plenty of smart ones and fnished last despite me making a case for her then too. She has something to prove now but is back down in grade and is on a C and D hattrick which she may well complete, providing a short break has freshened her up. 10/1 looks massive for 3 places so I am having a decent each way bet on her as she will be flying home late from the rear (if ridden properly!) and might just get her nose up on the line.
The 19.40 at Kempton looks a two horse race between Rivellino and FOXTROT JUBILEE with preference for the latter who is dropped back down in class today and goes for the in-fom Ralph Beckett yard. He won his first three, two over C and D and despite finishing behind Rivellino last time, FJ re-opposes on marginally better terms, though the return to the polytrack will be his main plus point. I fancy him to reverse the running as he has so much more too offer and is likely to improve, especially as his last run would have freshened him up for this one. 7/2.
Chester Stakes (14.45):
Buckland @ 14/1 e/w
Simenon @ 16/1 e/w Placed
Kempton 18.10 - Lily Edge @ 10/1 e/w
Kempton 19.40 - Foxtrot Jubilee @ 7/2
Double:
Kempton 18.40 - Tajheez
Newcastle 19.00 - Shalwa
Pays 8/1.
Good Luck all.
THT
Rolling Accumulator: Bet 1 - £10 on Over 11.5 corners in the Spurs/Chelsea game returns £17.50
BUCKLAND I always back as he is a horse I love and always does better than people expect. He is all heart and is probably out of his depth tomorrow over a longer trip than he has ever tried before and will need to improve to land this. Hans Adielsson's stable star, he is a horse that ran seventeen races before finally getting off the mark over 5f at Wolves.He then had to wait another five races before his connections thought he might be suited by a significant step up in trip. This is what made the horse, as he rolled off a four-timer, his first at 1m2f in a Class 5 race, his second at 1m3f in a Class 4 race, his third at 1m4f in a Class 3 race and his forth in a Class 2 race back at 1m3f as he won so convincingly by 5 lengths merely pushed out the time before. He was then stepped up massively in trip to 2m and I must admit I doubted he could win that race and did not back him yet was nearly humbled as he ran a stormer just being nailed on the line, going down by a short head. He was then entered in the Group 3 Sagaro Stakes where he massively out ran his 33/1 SP only just missing out on third place. He has been stepped up again this time to 18f in the Chester Cup and Buick takes the ride. Realistically I can't see him winning though he has good place claims, then again he has surprised us all before and looks a fair price for a horse who is still improving. 14/1.
Was going to leave it at that but I couldn't resist a small e/w bet in the same race on SIMENON who looks overpriced to me. The two time Royal Ascot winner wasn't at his best at all on heavy ground over jumps in Ireland at the end of 2012 but makes the trip over to Chester today for the big race. The break would have freshened him up and Willie Mullins will ensure he is in prime conditions for Tuesday's race. His last flat race was a Group 1 in Ireland where he came a few lengths off the pace in 5th, in ground he isn't as useful on, and was staying on better than anything at the end. He will stay the trip today all week and offers no concerns in that department. His last two flat runs in England he has won, both at Royal Ascot within the space of four days, destroying the field on both occasions on ground he likes. For me he looks the value bet of the race, though many will argue the same with their own picks. Unlike Buckland I can see Simenon winning this and he has solid place claims in my opinion should he be race-fit on his return, though that is never a concern when a horse is trained with WPM. 12/1.
LILY EDGE is ahorse I backed to both her victories, both over today's distance. I backed her again the next time when she drifted like a barge right before the off from 5/2 fav to 7/1 and was ridden to lose. I explained what happened before and won;t dwell on it again but it was a ride that made no sense and the drift spoke volumes. She was upped in class the next time where she ran into plenty of smart ones and fnished last despite me making a case for her then too. She has something to prove now but is back down in grade and is on a C and D hattrick which she may well complete, providing a short break has freshened her up. 10/1 looks massive for 3 places so I am having a decent each way bet on her as she will be flying home late from the rear (if ridden properly!) and might just get her nose up on the line.
The 19.40 at Kempton looks a two horse race between Rivellino and FOXTROT JUBILEE with preference for the latter who is dropped back down in class today and goes for the in-fom Ralph Beckett yard. He won his first three, two over C and D and despite finishing behind Rivellino last time, FJ re-opposes on marginally better terms, though the return to the polytrack will be his main plus point. I fancy him to reverse the running as he has so much more too offer and is likely to improve, especially as his last run would have freshened him up for this one. 7/2.
Chester Stakes (14.45):
Buckland @ 14/1 e/w
Simenon @ 16/1 e/w Placed
Kempton 18.10 - Lily Edge @ 10/1 e/w
Kempton 19.40 - Foxtrot Jubilee @ 7/2
Double:
Kempton 18.40 - Tajheez
Newcastle 19.00 - Shalwa
Pays 8/1.
Good Luck all.
THT
Rolling Accumulator: Bet 1 - £10 on Over 11.5 corners in the Spurs/Chelsea game returns £17.50
Monday 6 May 2013
Tuesday 7th May
Decent day on Monday, though only small stakes so not too much to shout about. However, always nice to lad some big priced winners and 6/1, 16/1 and 16/1 shots all went in for us. On to Tuesday where again I advise smallish stakes as nothing I would back with 100% confidence, though a few look overpriced and worth a bet.
Annoyed I missed the early price but DANZOE is fantastic value in the 14.50 Yarmouth at 7/1. His trainer runs three in this race and judged on jockey bookings he looks to be the second best chance of the yard as Dan's regular rider prefers Speedyfix at a shortish price. He is the one to beat after some very consistent performances recently though the seconds are mounting up and Darren Egan is well worth his small yet valuable 3lb claim. Danzoe has to be respected back on turf and I had him around 3/1, 4/1 in my mind so seeing that I had missed 8/1 was frustrating but at 7/1 he is worth a decent e/w bet and has to be going close. He is also a C and D winner and has won 2 of his last 3 on turf. This race doesn't look to strong either and he goes well enough fresh and won after a similar length break before and looks nailed on for a place at least.
ORPSIE BOY goes in the 19.10 at Catterick and while he isn't the force of old he looks a little overpriced tomorrow at 12/1. He has won off a mark of 96 before and is now back on his last winning mark which incidentally was over today's course and distance. He is back from a break today and goes well fresh, as shown by his win on reappearance after seven months off. He can be forgiven his last run on soft ground that didn't suit him, at the end of a long season and has to have every chance of going close today. I would have taken around 7/1 - 8/1 on this one and 12/1 looks a lovely little price.
RED LARKSPUR goes in a handicap tomorrow at Kempton (16.40) and looks to have every chance of following up. She won here on his only visit, in only his second ever run hacking up winning as she liked. She was then unsuccessfully tried in higher grades before she was returned to today's level last time when winning at odds on, merely shaken up to go clear in the first time hood and she had plenty left in the tank suggesting his penalty won't defy her from going in again at this grade though there are a few dangers off decent marks. 9/4 looks a great price for this one and will likely go off shorter.
MAGIQUE is an interesting prospect stepping up in trip for his handicap debut. He won with any amount in hand last time eased into the race by Shane Kelly with a typical cool as you like ride. William Buick takes over today for his only ride on Tuesday and she looks set to win at a nice price too. Annoyed to find she was 3/1 earlier but still happy with 2/1 and she will go into a double with our other short priced pick.
The 15.50 at Kempton is a very competitive little race though three stand out for me. Jonnie Skull ran out an easy winner last time under a great Fallon ride and steps down in trip slightly today, Katy's Secret is dangerously well treated and a good price too. Athletic is a model of consistency and is on a lower mark on turf than his recent 22122 form on the A/W. He has also rejoined his former trainer and will go very well under Robert Tart and may be worth a bet in himself. However I have decided to put these three in a multi tri-cast any order bet just tiny stakes as today's fun bet though the Botti newcomer could be anything here in UK.
Singles:
14.50 Yarmouth - Danzoe @ 8/1 e/w WON
15.50 Yarmouth - Athletic @ 8/1 e/w
16.10 Kempton - Magique @ 2/1
16.40 Kempton - Red Larkspur @ 9/4
19.10 Catterick - Orpsie Boy @ 12/1 e/w
Doubles:
Red Larkspur/Magique @ 9/1
Danzoe/Orpsie Boy @ 103/1 e/w
Fun bet:
Any order tri-cast in the 15.50 Yarmouth of Katy's Secret, Athletic and Jonnie Skull.
Good Luck.
THT
Annoyed I missed the early price but DANZOE is fantastic value in the 14.50 Yarmouth at 7/1. His trainer runs three in this race and judged on jockey bookings he looks to be the second best chance of the yard as Dan's regular rider prefers Speedyfix at a shortish price. He is the one to beat after some very consistent performances recently though the seconds are mounting up and Darren Egan is well worth his small yet valuable 3lb claim. Danzoe has to be respected back on turf and I had him around 3/1, 4/1 in my mind so seeing that I had missed 8/1 was frustrating but at 7/1 he is worth a decent e/w bet and has to be going close. He is also a C and D winner and has won 2 of his last 3 on turf. This race doesn't look to strong either and he goes well enough fresh and won after a similar length break before and looks nailed on for a place at least.
ORPSIE BOY goes in the 19.10 at Catterick and while he isn't the force of old he looks a little overpriced tomorrow at 12/1. He has won off a mark of 96 before and is now back on his last winning mark which incidentally was over today's course and distance. He is back from a break today and goes well fresh, as shown by his win on reappearance after seven months off. He can be forgiven his last run on soft ground that didn't suit him, at the end of a long season and has to have every chance of going close today. I would have taken around 7/1 - 8/1 on this one and 12/1 looks a lovely little price.
RED LARKSPUR goes in a handicap tomorrow at Kempton (16.40) and looks to have every chance of following up. She won here on his only visit, in only his second ever run hacking up winning as she liked. She was then unsuccessfully tried in higher grades before she was returned to today's level last time when winning at odds on, merely shaken up to go clear in the first time hood and she had plenty left in the tank suggesting his penalty won't defy her from going in again at this grade though there are a few dangers off decent marks. 9/4 looks a great price for this one and will likely go off shorter.
MAGIQUE is an interesting prospect stepping up in trip for his handicap debut. He won with any amount in hand last time eased into the race by Shane Kelly with a typical cool as you like ride. William Buick takes over today for his only ride on Tuesday and she looks set to win at a nice price too. Annoyed to find she was 3/1 earlier but still happy with 2/1 and she will go into a double with our other short priced pick.
The 15.50 at Kempton is a very competitive little race though three stand out for me. Jonnie Skull ran out an easy winner last time under a great Fallon ride and steps down in trip slightly today, Katy's Secret is dangerously well treated and a good price too. Athletic is a model of consistency and is on a lower mark on turf than his recent 22122 form on the A/W. He has also rejoined his former trainer and will go very well under Robert Tart and may be worth a bet in himself. However I have decided to put these three in a multi tri-cast any order bet just tiny stakes as today's fun bet though the Botti newcomer could be anything here in UK.
Singles:
14.50 Yarmouth - Danzoe @ 8/1 e/w WON
15.50 Yarmouth - Athletic @ 8/1 e/w
16.10 Kempton - Magique @ 2/1
16.40 Kempton - Red Larkspur @ 9/4
19.10 Catterick - Orpsie Boy @ 12/1 e/w
Doubles:
Red Larkspur/Magique @ 9/1
Danzoe/Orpsie Boy @ 103/1 e/w
Fun bet:
Any order tri-cast in the 15.50 Yarmouth of Katy's Secret, Athletic and Jonnie Skull.
Good Luck.
THT
Sunday 5 May 2013
Monday 6th May
As I pointed out on Sunday evening on Twitter, not great racing on the flat on Monday but there are still opportunities worth having a small play on though very small stakes from me as shown. If you fancy singles, or make your own multiples then feel free but I have decided to do two Lucky 15's, one eachway and one to win, as small stakes, big returns are everyone's favourite type of bet and certainly nothing I would advise to lump on today. Good Luck all.
CAPPELANUS is an unlucky horse with quite a confusingly troubled history. He has been tried over many different distances, for many owners and trainers, on every going you can imagine and seems to act well on anything proven by his wins on Heavy, Soft and Standard ground (A/W) though I think he is a good ground horse. After going very close recently; once almost on the bridle in final furlong and cruising when the door was firmly shut on him ruining his chance, once when the jockey seemed to not want to win and once when he went down by a head. 222 on a formbook is off putting but a few key changes today will in my opinion, bring about a change of luck and a well deserved victory. Firstly Shane Kelly. How he has come about this ride I don't know but this has to be a positive thing. Renowned for his masterful rides on tricky customers, he is the man for the job. Whilst Cappelanus isn't a quirky sort as such, he is proving a hard-to-win-with type and we may see another masterclass in horsemanship on Monday and I think this one could be hard on the bridle while others are struggling. That's the plan anyway! ;-) Another big difference is that this is his first flat run on turf since being hammered on heavy ground in Ireland last Summer and the firmer ground today will probably suit as mentioned. His last race was actually at Haydock over the jumps where he was comfortably beaten, but the race was good quality and higher than he has ever contested on the flat. He has been given a short break to freshen him up as he had a busy March (four races) and he looks set to go mightily close today in a weak looking race. Regarding the dangers, nothing stands out particularly though it is a fairly tight market. At 6/1 in a 8 runner race (three places) he looks nailed on for a place and I expect him to be winning this weakish looking race.
FINLODEX is another runner that caught the eye in a desperately weak race at Bath. The lightly raced chestnut ran in a very strong race for the grade last time against three who have won once since and three who have won twice since that race. Therefore six subsequent winners were in that race and Monday should see that rise to seven. Worth noting he finished forth behind one of the dual subsequent winners and two who have gone on to win once since. In other words she had two dual subsequent winners along with another one who has gone on to win again, all behind him. This looks very strong form. Incidentally Shane Kelly is in the saddle again; as I mentioned on Twitter, he has some very interesting rides at Bath on Monday. Aside from the last race I mentioned, he has shaped as though his turn is coming, although admittedly he is a 10 race maiden. He looks ready for a stiff test on good ground on turf and has been off the track for a few months, though this looks to be another advantage as the last time he had a similar break, returning over a mile, he went very close finishing half a length behind a horse owned by The Queen. (thought this was interesting) Another one at a very fair price, 11/2 and he looks another nailed on for a place, and I really fancy he will be going very close indeed in this company, though Spinning Ridge is a massive price and might be worth a small e/w coverbet (16/1)
As you can see by our picks so far, we expect Shane Kelly to have a good day at Bath. Well it doesn't stop there because FOR SHIA AND LULA is overpriced imo and is another horse ridden by him that we fancy. The horse has run some good races though wasn't at his best last time when seventh of seven but that run is easily excused; he was only three lengths behind the winner for a start and secondly as he was in the hands of an apprentice and he can be a tricky ride. I have tracked this horse for a while as I am sure he is capable of much more than he has shown so far. The key to him may be transferring him back on to turf, on which he races off a 10lb lower mark than A/W. In fact, FSAL has never run off a mark this low and is surely ready to strike, despite the favourite looking solid despite a penalty. At worst I expect him to come third, which paying three places at 6/1, you will still show a profit. He just looks one of those horses that the (in form) trainer knows is better than he has shown. You see horses struggling for wins then suddenly three come in three races; he looks like one of those little plots. DM Loughnane is trainer I like actually. He places his horses well, as shown by his 38% strike rate in the last two weeks. He often ends up, whether it is by choice or coincidence, training these quirky types and his primary jockey is the perfect man to do the riding and I will be very disappointed if he doesn't give a very good account of himself in this.
AMOSITE is a horse I have backed before and likely will again. She is a lovely horse and runs at Warwick tomorrow. After winning nicely at Lingfield three starts back she was unsuccessfully tried over a mile, and was quickly reverted back to her ideal 7f. She was going very well and was ready to make her challenge on the re-opposing Maggie Pink when Amosite went wrong and was quickly pulled up. I am certainly not a vet by any means and couldn't find out what went wrong but a burst blood vessel looked the likely cause. Anyway she is fighting fit and back today, raring to go (I hope) over her ideal trip in optimum conditions (good ground) so I expect her to go very well and definitely out-run her massive 16/1 price at time of writing. She has popped up at big prices before (6/1, 16/1, 18/1) and will do again as for some reason people just can't have this horse. Worth noting she was a short head off a 28/1 surprise and twice missed out on a win at 25/1 by a head. So as you can see, she is very unfancied nearly everytime yet almost always out-runs her price in a big way. Assuming she is fully fit she is a very interesting runner, especially with a very eye-catching jockey booking too. Silvestre de Sousa now takes over the reigns though many top jockeys have come and gone so I am not paying too much attention to that. However, she has been with the same trainer from day one over five years ago, and this is something I always like to see. While Monday's race is competitive, expect her to do what she does best and outrun her expectations, a place would be good, a win would be fantastic and I think she has every chance back on turf.
GIN TIME has been an unlucky horse thus far coming second on his three runs. He is weighted to reverse form with Scargill and should do so as he was only nailed on the line last time. Ding Ding might end up being the big threat of those with experience though GT is a fair price and worth one more go before he becomes frustrating, although some may argue he is exactly that already.
SIMPLY A LEGEND is an interesting runner in the bumper at Ffos Las tomorrow. He was well backed last time and at one stage looked all over the winner before a nice prospect took over and won the race infront of an even money shot, with SAL just behind in third. Considering this was his first time at 2m and his massive lack of inexperience, this looks a very good run and with good vibes coming from connections, he should go close for the Alan King/Wayne Hutchinson combination though there will be a Nicky Henderson short priced favourite to overcome yet I fancy he could be the one to beat in this weak looking race.
Despite mentioning on twitter that CLIMAXFORTACKLE looked on the short side, after studying the race I really think he is the one to beat. He is admiraby consistent; finished in top three in last eight runs in a slightly lower grade than this race. Connections obviously feel like he would be better off a low weight in a stronger race than a high weight in a weaker race as he likes to cut them all down late with a powerful surge - great to watch. In fact he is actually 1lb out of the handicap today, and goes off bottom weight, just 8-7, the lightest he has been carrying for a long time. The way he finished last time in a strong race was very eye-catching, especially considering he totally missed the break. He took off like a rocket under apprentice Adam McLean who returns today, meaning with his 7lb claim, CFT runs off a puny weight and should go very very close if he runs up to the standard of his recent runs. In fact, I think he would need to run badly to not win this but I could be wrong, looks solid and a fair price too, despite what I said on Twitter, Ray of Joy being the big danger.
OPEN WATER looks a big price to me tomorrow. When pricing the runners up in my head (something I always do and advise doing yourself) I had OW closely matched with Mean It, with preference for the former as Mean It has only run on softish ground. Was surprised to see Mean It at 6/4 and Open Water at 5/1 and in my head at least this looks well worth taking advantage of. I could be totally wrong but Open Water should be too smart for these as he goes well enough fresh, his yard is in form, he is significantly dropped in grade and he has some really smart form to his name. He flopped last time but likes the quick ground and you feel this C4 race is a stepping stone to bigger things this season, can't see him beaten though may need the run, yet I fancy him to be too classy for the opposition. Was shocked to see he opened at 8/1, that's mad and rightly did not last long, but 5/1 is still great value to me.
Each-Way Lucky 15:
3.10 Bath - Cappelanus @ 7/1
3.40 Warwick - Amosite @ 16/1 WON
4.45 Bath - Finlodex @ 11/2
5.15 Bath - For Shia and Lula @ 6/1 WON
25p e/w pays £2136
Returned £40.75.
Returned £40.75.
Win bet Lucky 15:
2.40 Bath - Gin Time @ 10/3
5.05 Windsor - Open Water @ 5/1
5.20 Kempton - Climaxfortackle @ 3/1
5.25 Ffos Las - Simply a Legend @ 13/2
50p win pays £872
Coverbet single:
4.45 Bath - Spinning Ridge @ 16/1 e/w WON
Be Lucky today.
THT
Friday 3 May 2013
Friday 3rd May
Morning all, in a mad rush as usual on Friday so forgive the lack of explanations. Small stakes today for me as mostly for interest though I really fancy a few of these. Good Luck if you like the look of any of our picks and jump on.
Singles:
2.00 Musselburgh - Salvatore Fury @ 9/1 e/w
3.50 Chepstow - Stonecrabstomorrow @ 14/1 e/w Placed
7.00 Fontwell - Twin Bud @ 9/1 e/w
(also backed all horses in the following bets as win or e/w singles dependant on price)
Lucky 15 (1):
3.40 Lingfield - Rowe Park @ 5/1 Unplaced (Bad run, age catching up with him?)
4.10 Lingfield - Valdaw @ 9/4 Unplaced (Too much to do, didn't pick up too well anyway)
5.10 Lingfield - Fonterutoli @ 4/1
6.30 Fontwell - Fiftyonefiftyone @ 9/4
50p win returns £417
Lucky 15 (2):
3.00 Musselburgh - Gala Casino Star @ 12/1 Placed
3.10 Lingfield - Elegant Ophelia @ 9/1 Unplaced (Kirby gave up when had every chance)
4.10 Lingfield - Commanche @ 10/1 Unplaced (Made up ground but too much to do)
8.40 Dundalk - Johann Bach @ 12/1
25p e/w returns £6720
Good Luck all.
THT
Singles:
2.00 Musselburgh - Salvatore Fury @ 9/1 e/w
3.50 Chepstow - Stonecrabstomorrow @ 14/1 e/w Placed
7.00 Fontwell - Twin Bud @ 9/1 e/w
(also backed all horses in the following bets as win or e/w singles dependant on price)
Lucky 15 (1):
3.40 Lingfield - Rowe Park @ 5/1 Unplaced (Bad run, age catching up with him?)
4.10 Lingfield - Valdaw @ 9/4 Unplaced (Too much to do, didn't pick up too well anyway)
5.10 Lingfield - Fonterutoli @ 4/1
6.30 Fontwell - Fiftyonefiftyone @ 9/4
50p win returns £417
Lucky 15 (2):
3.00 Musselburgh - Gala Casino Star @ 12/1 Placed
3.10 Lingfield - Elegant Ophelia @ 9/1 Unplaced (Kirby gave up when had every chance)
4.10 Lingfield - Commanche @ 10/1 Unplaced (Made up ground but too much to do)
8.40 Dundalk - Johann Bach @ 12/1
25p e/w returns £6720
Good Luck all.
THT
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