12 individual horses
44 individual runs
17 winners (39% SR)
26 placed (59% SR)
LSP: +15.23pts
As you can see, it was another successful season over jumps though I'm always looking to improve on the final points total so I'll be making one or two slight tweaks this time around to try and push us towards the 50pt mark which will be an ambitious but hopefully realistic target as the season progresses. In recent seasons I've been concentrating too much on what I perceived to be horses with plenty of ability, rather than well handicapped horses so don't be suprised to see a few extra wildcards thrown in that you'll be unlikely to find on any other 'horses to follow' list this time around.
As you can see, it was another successful season over jumps though I'm always looking to improve on the final points total so I'll be making one or two slight tweaks this time around to try and push us towards the 50pt mark which will be an ambitious but hopefully realistic target as the season progresses. In recent seasons I've been concentrating too much on what I perceived to be horses with plenty of ability, rather than well handicapped horses so don't be suprised to see a few extra wildcards thrown in that you'll be unlikely to find on any other 'horses to follow' list this time around.
AL HAMDANY - 3yo colt by Kodiac/Easy Times trained by Marco Botti - 41212
Despite a very exploitable mark of 97, connections seem keen to waste no time letting Al Hamdany run around for handicap prize money. He holds entries in the Listed Fielden Stakes tomorrow and I'm looking forward to seeing how he gets on. His penultimate run was impressive when well backed and winning comfortably. The form has since been boosted as the second has since come out and bolted up in a maiden and the fifth placed horse also won next time out. He was then stepped up into Listed company and was agonisingly beaten a head after being hampered close home by D'bai who then ran in Group 1 company on his next start, though never got into the race. The form has substance though as the third placed horse has since impressively scored in a conditions race and the forth also won next time out. He may be seen over further and he is a colt with plenty more to give this season.
APRES MIDI - 4yo filly by Galileo/Rose Bonheur trained by Karl Burke - 3221
This filly broke her maiden tag in good style at the forth time of asking after three previous solid runs in defeat. Beautifully bred and now another year wiser, this filly could really progress through the handicap ranks this season starting off on a mark of 81. Several winners have come out of her maiden runs and she looks strikingly well handicapped. I'll be surprised if she doesn't have some black type under her belt before the season is out.
BELLE DIVA* - 3yo filly by Dark Angel/Red Intrigue trained by Ralph Beckett - 61
Despite being a tall but light and weak 2yo, this Dark Angel filly was good enough to get off the mark at her second attempt in September before quickly being put away for the winter. The second, third and forth were dual subsequent winner Hersigh, (80) next time out winner Castellated (73) and next time out winner Choumicha. (83) This makes this filly look extremely well handicapped of 77 with the promise of much more to come this season especially as she was so far from the finished article when winning her maiden. She has a very good pedigree and she could definitely progress to pick up some black type this year. Should be well ahead of her mark and is the type her trainer really excels with. A must follow for me this season.
COSTA PERCY - 3yo gelding by Sir Percy/Costa Brava trained by Karl Burke - 8750
Certainly not an obvious one but he has caught the eye on more than one occasion when running in maiden company and is open to improvement as he steps up in trip and runs on the turf. His first run in handicap company when never involved (dropped 3lbs) should have him spot on to now start putting his best foot forward and he should be more than capable off of a lowly mark of 62. Could be one to rack up a bit of a sequence once he breaks his duck and likely to be a decent price when next seen - worth keeping an eye out for.
DANIELSFLYER - 3yo colt by Dandy Man/Warm Welcome trained by David Barron - 2120
This well thought of sprinter was heavily backed on debut and despite stumbling and running a little green he ran a nice race, ridden to lead 1f out and shaping well before just finding one too strong in the closing stages. The winner hasn't been seen since but he offered plenty of debut promise of which he duly followed up on next time out in an Ayr maiden with minimal fuss, beating plenty of subsequent winners. He was then chucked in the deep end on his third start when contesting the Woodcote Stakes at the Derby meeting, agonisingly going down by a nostril to Legendary Lunch (now rated 105) despite having fought his way to the front inside the final furlong. It was a great effort from this son of Dandy Man on just his third career start and he was very well fancied for the Goffs Premier Yearling Stakes at York next time out. However, things didn't go to plan for him as he missed the break, stumbled very badly during the race and could never get into contention. The very quick ground may have also played a part but he came in lame after the race and that run is best totally forgiven. He is the type to make up into a very useful 3yo and a mark of 93 gives connections options though it is possible that he'll need his first run back.
ENTANGLING - 3yo gelding by Fastnet Rock/Question Times trained by Chris Wall - 639
This horse has caught the eye on all three outings to date, shaping like a horse with much more raw ability than he has currently been able to fully show on the racecourse. He has clearly been brought along with handicaps in mind and has shown that he is well up to winning races. On his first outing behind Surrey Hope he was detached in rear early before keeping on most encouragingly under hands and heels throughout the final two furlongs. He shaped like an improver and duly stepped up next time behind Sabador when travelling powerfully in mid-division with nowhere to go until too late, at which point he was merely pushed out to grab third. With one more run needed for a mark, he was given a very interesting ride to say the least, held up in rear, racing very wide throughout before being nudged along and just keeping on at the one pace once the race was already all over. Expect plenty of improvement next time out and off a mark of 69 from a shrewd yard, he should progress through the handicap ranks as the season wears on.
HORSEPLAY - 3yo filly by Cape Cross/Mischief Maker trained by Andrew Balding - 41
There is no reason why this filly can't progress into a credible Oaks contender (40/1) this season for Andrew Balding and Cliveden Stud. She ran a nice enough race on her first start in an Ascot maiden but typically of her trainer, it wasn't until her second start where we saw a different horse and she was one of the most impressive maiden winners I can recall from last season when proving a different league to her opposition over a mile at Nottingham in soft ground. She mightn't have beaten much, but the manner she pulled away was memorable and the further they went the better she looked. She took a good bit of pulling up after the race too which is always a good sign and there's no doubt that this exciting filly should stay a mile and a half. One of the more talented horses on this list, no doubt.
INSTIGATION* - 3yo filly by Bated Breath/Rainbow's Edge trained by Ed Dunlop - 059
A Newmarket maiden was the first time we saw this Bated Breath filly on the racecourse and she ran like her price suggested, finishing out the back but far from disgraced only being beaten seven lengths. She showed the benefit of that experience, aswell as a switch of surface and step up in trip when running an extremely pleasing and eyecatching fifth over 7f at Kempton. She took a little while to find her stride but kept on stoutly inside the final furlong, really picking up quite well into a never nearer fifth behind some really nice types including Belle Diva mentioned above as well as the three others mentioned now rated 73, 80 and 83. This effort was followed by her final run to get a mark when nonsensically dropped back to 6f and was slowly away and always outpaced thereafter. This got her qualified for handicaps of which she will start life off 64, which I strongly suspect grossly underestimates her ability, especially as she is stepped up in trip. Could be ready to strike at the first time of asking for her trainer who knows the time of day but one to follow thereafter whatever happens on her reappearance. Probably the best handicapped horse on this list so I make her a must follow.
LUGANO - 4yo colt by Galileo/Swiss Lake trained by Sir Mark Prescott - 9471
For 1m4f and 97 yards of this colt's handicap debut over 1m4f and 98 yards, defeat looked certain. When the pace lifted round the Newcastle home turn he completely lost his position and looked woefully one paced as they came down the straight, shuffled back in the pack with seemingly no response despite being hard ridden. With an awkward looking head carriage and a tendency to lug left handed apparent, he looked one to avoid. About 100 yards out however, his stamina kicked in and something clicked in his mind that it was time to run on. And run on he did, somehow getting up in the final stride for a most unlikely victory. I urge you to watch a replay of it, quite remarkable. He was too green/slow in his maidens to show his true worth and in typical fashion of his trainer, a step up in trip did the trick on his first venture into handicap company. Despite winning, he still appeared to be a big raw backward type and interestingly we haven't seen him since this victory which suggests as much but this means he has been given time to mature over the Winter. A 9lbs rise for that success takes him to a revised rating of 69, which given the manner of this victory and the promise of a switch to turf and a step up in trip to bring about plenty more improvement, this is definitely a horse to keep on the right side of this season. Very well handicapped and bucketloads to come - a big staying handicap later in the season could well be on the agenda if he makes the likely progress anticipated.
MACH ONE - 3yo colt by Makfi/Perfect Spirit trained by Clive Cox - 457
Despite his relatively uninspiring form figures, this horse is one I am very much looking forward to seeing now qualified for handicaps. On debut he looked totally clueless and was badly outpaced but did come home quite nicely over a mile at Salisbury, albeit a long way behind the leaders. That said, everything he ran against that day has since won and the winner Salouen subsequently placed in Group 1 company. Next time out he ran in what looks an even stronger maiden, coming home in fifth behind credible Derby candidate Monarch's Glen, the exciting Frankel colt Count Octave as well as a promising type of Ralph Beckett's who also features on this list later on. He showed up well for a long way though and it was a nice improvement from his debut where he appeared a lot more professional, though still some way off the finished article. His final run in maiden company was in another deep contest, this time at Nottingham when sent to the front and showing up well before gradually weakening into seventh, beaten about eight lengths. On the back of his maiden efforts, the handicapper allotted him a mark of 65 which I think is very exploitable indeed. Bearing in mind that it is likely that he will have been brought along with handicaps in mind, I think he rates as a very appealing proposition to follow through the handicap ranks this season as he progresses with his racing.
REALLY SUPER - 3yo filly by Cacique/Sensationally trained by Ralph Beckett - 4
This filly probably went into a couple of notebooks after her very pleasing debut run when staying on eyecatchingly well over 9f at Goodwood last September. Despite showing signs of inexperience and being well back in the field, Really Super picked up very well inside the final couple of furlongs, making relentless progress and going on at the finish. The form looks good too with the winner Monarch's Glen looking like a smart prospect after making a mockery of his opening handicap mark of 87, while the third Count Octave has since won a maiden too. Her pedigree and her debut run suggest she will come into her own over middle distances and she can win a maiden on her reappearance before going on to better things.
RICHIE MCCAW - 4yo gelding by Zamindar/Cochin trained by Ian Williams - 51344
I doubt this horse will have made any horses to follow list this season whatsoever; after all what's the appeal of a 77 rated gelding by Zamindar? That said he was well thought of in his early days with Mark Johnston and won a Chelmsford maiden in decisive fashion beaten a couple of horses now rated in the 80's. After that victory, he could never stay sound and his problems meant he was off the track for nearly a year, in that time being switched to his current trainer. He reappeared with a decent though well beaten third in a 10f handicap at Doncaster before a much improved run over the same distance at Sandown, outpaced before staying on well inside the final furlong to finish a never nearer 4th beaten a length. A step up in trip looked likely next time out but he was kept to 10f when sent off joint favourite, keeping on at the one pace for forth behind some useful types. (rated 88-90) There should be a bit of improvement to come on that basis, especially for one so lightly raced. With the horse having reportedly come back in a much bigger and stronger individual and having got over his niggly problems, he rates as one to keep an eye out for this summer, especially if stepped up in trip which I think could suit. In the care of one of the shrewdest trainers around, this horse is certainly in the right hands to live up to his early promise and any market support would likely be significant on reappearance.
SABADOR* - 3yo gelding by Kendargent/Sabadora trained by Ed Walker - 41
Ed Walker usually leaves his debutants with plenty to work on and this French bred gelding was no different, showing the benefit of his first run at two and a gelding operation when winning in quite taking style in a Kempton maiden on his first 3yo start last month. Despite taking a very keen hold early on, he settled down at halfway before making his move inside the final two furlongs when picking up nicely, quickening and extending throughout the final furlong to win in decisive fashion, going away. He clearly had plenty left in the tank as his rider almost completed another circuit before he could pull him up to return to the winners enclosure. The form has yet to really be tested but has since stood up a bit with the forth placed horse winning on handicap debut next time out and the fifth coming close to doing the same and I really feel Sabador has been let in lightly off 78. The manner of his victory suggests he has plenty more to give and a step up in trip is very likely to bring about further improvement provided he settles a little better. To run as keen as he did early on and then quicken as he did for pressure suggests his mark is very lenient and he is must follow as he climbs through the handicap rankings.
SCUZEME - 3yo gelding by Kheleyf/Barbieri trained by David Barron - 5812
This horse had been showing plenty at home before making his 2yo debut and was well supported into odds on to make a winning start to his racing career. However, he finished tailed off last and it was a similar story next time when the same happened to an even greater extent. He was put away, seemingly too weak and backward to show his true ability on the racecourse. With a holiday under his belt, a gelding operation performed and some physical and mental maturion completed, he returned a totally different proposition when heavily backed and bolting up in a Newcastle maiden. He tanked his way through the race before cruising through and putting the race to bed in a matter of strides when asked to quicken. It was a taking performance and he was allotted a mark of 80 to start his career in handicaps. After three months off the track he reappeared at Nottingham last week, opening at around 2/1 when the markets first went up. By post time he was on offer at an amazing 9/1 - quite the drift and it told, as he was held up in rear and left with plenty to do, never looking like getting to the winner. He still beat the other twelve home and stayed on encouragingly all the way to the line. The betting pre-race and the way he shaped during it suggests he'll really come on for that run and is definitely one to watch out for next time out. Unexposed and plenty of juice in his mark, he's definitely one to add to your tracker for the coming season.
SURREY HOPE - 3yo colt by Lemon Drop Kid/She Be Classy trained by Joseph Tuite - 61
This American bred colt was a 66/1 poke on debut in a Newbury maiden last October when shaping with huge promise, held up in rear, green when first asked for an effort but with the penny dropping late on and him seeing his race out nicely for a never nearer sixth behind a few with previous experience. He was then put away before reappearing with a decisive victory switched to the all-weather at Kempton for his second start over a mile. Keen early but soon settled in nicely behind the leaders, travelling powerfully turning in before being shaken up and sprinting clear inside the final furlong. Visually impressive and well regarded by his trainer, he appeals as a horse with plenty more to come and a mark of 81 could have him let in lightly. He is being aimed at a handicap on Craven day at Newmarket and is likely to give a bold showing. Worth a follow but I have a niggling concern that he may need artificial surfaces to be seen to best effect.
The List:
Al Hamdany - 650752
Apres Midi - 336817
*Belle Diva - 0
Costa Percy - 11231
Danielsflyer - 10085
Entangling - 21
Horseplay - 144
*Instigation -
Lugano - 11135
Mach One - 053
Really Super - 4344232
Richie McCaw - 55
*Sabador - 210
Scuzeme - 67
Surrey Hope - 131
* = Must Follow
Form: 636401125370403111115041681043450328317527231515523213
Winners:
Danielsflyer 25/1
Horseplay 11/2
Sabador 9/4
Costa Percy 8/1
Surrey Hope 8/1
Lugano 2/1
Lugano 1/1
Lugano 4/11
Costa Percy 5/1
Apres Midi 4/1
Costa Percy 7/2
Entangling 4/5
Surrey Hope 11/4
LSP:+20.16 pts
Despite a very exploitable mark of 97, connections seem keen to waste no time letting Al Hamdany run around for handicap prize money. He holds entries in the Listed Fielden Stakes tomorrow and I'm looking forward to seeing how he gets on. His penultimate run was impressive when well backed and winning comfortably. The form has since been boosted as the second has since come out and bolted up in a maiden and the fifth placed horse also won next time out. He was then stepped up into Listed company and was agonisingly beaten a head after being hampered close home by D'bai who then ran in Group 1 company on his next start, though never got into the race. The form has substance though as the third placed horse has since impressively scored in a conditions race and the forth also won next time out. He may be seen over further and he is a colt with plenty more to give this season.
APRES MIDI - 4yo filly by Galileo/Rose Bonheur trained by Karl Burke - 3221
This filly broke her maiden tag in good style at the forth time of asking after three previous solid runs in defeat. Beautifully bred and now another year wiser, this filly could really progress through the handicap ranks this season starting off on a mark of 81. Several winners have come out of her maiden runs and she looks strikingly well handicapped. I'll be surprised if she doesn't have some black type under her belt before the season is out.
BELLE DIVA* - 3yo filly by Dark Angel/Red Intrigue trained by Ralph Beckett - 61
Despite being a tall but light and weak 2yo, this Dark Angel filly was good enough to get off the mark at her second attempt in September before quickly being put away for the winter. The second, third and forth were dual subsequent winner Hersigh, (80) next time out winner Castellated (73) and next time out winner Choumicha. (83) This makes this filly look extremely well handicapped of 77 with the promise of much more to come this season especially as she was so far from the finished article when winning her maiden. She has a very good pedigree and she could definitely progress to pick up some black type this year. Should be well ahead of her mark and is the type her trainer really excels with. A must follow for me this season.
COSTA PERCY - 3yo gelding by Sir Percy/Costa Brava trained by Karl Burke - 8750
Certainly not an obvious one but he has caught the eye on more than one occasion when running in maiden company and is open to improvement as he steps up in trip and runs on the turf. His first run in handicap company when never involved (dropped 3lbs) should have him spot on to now start putting his best foot forward and he should be more than capable off of a lowly mark of 62. Could be one to rack up a bit of a sequence once he breaks his duck and likely to be a decent price when next seen - worth keeping an eye out for.
DANIELSFLYER - 3yo colt by Dandy Man/Warm Welcome trained by David Barron - 2120
This well thought of sprinter was heavily backed on debut and despite stumbling and running a little green he ran a nice race, ridden to lead 1f out and shaping well before just finding one too strong in the closing stages. The winner hasn't been seen since but he offered plenty of debut promise of which he duly followed up on next time out in an Ayr maiden with minimal fuss, beating plenty of subsequent winners. He was then chucked in the deep end on his third start when contesting the Woodcote Stakes at the Derby meeting, agonisingly going down by a nostril to Legendary Lunch (now rated 105) despite having fought his way to the front inside the final furlong. It was a great effort from this son of Dandy Man on just his third career start and he was very well fancied for the Goffs Premier Yearling Stakes at York next time out. However, things didn't go to plan for him as he missed the break, stumbled very badly during the race and could never get into contention. The very quick ground may have also played a part but he came in lame after the race and that run is best totally forgiven. He is the type to make up into a very useful 3yo and a mark of 93 gives connections options though it is possible that he'll need his first run back.
ENTANGLING - 3yo gelding by Fastnet Rock/Question Times trained by Chris Wall - 639
This horse has caught the eye on all three outings to date, shaping like a horse with much more raw ability than he has currently been able to fully show on the racecourse. He has clearly been brought along with handicaps in mind and has shown that he is well up to winning races. On his first outing behind Surrey Hope he was detached in rear early before keeping on most encouragingly under hands and heels throughout the final two furlongs. He shaped like an improver and duly stepped up next time behind Sabador when travelling powerfully in mid-division with nowhere to go until too late, at which point he was merely pushed out to grab third. With one more run needed for a mark, he was given a very interesting ride to say the least, held up in rear, racing very wide throughout before being nudged along and just keeping on at the one pace once the race was already all over. Expect plenty of improvement next time out and off a mark of 69 from a shrewd yard, he should progress through the handicap ranks as the season wears on.
HORSEPLAY - 3yo filly by Cape Cross/Mischief Maker trained by Andrew Balding - 41
There is no reason why this filly can't progress into a credible Oaks contender (40/1) this season for Andrew Balding and Cliveden Stud. She ran a nice enough race on her first start in an Ascot maiden but typically of her trainer, it wasn't until her second start where we saw a different horse and she was one of the most impressive maiden winners I can recall from last season when proving a different league to her opposition over a mile at Nottingham in soft ground. She mightn't have beaten much, but the manner she pulled away was memorable and the further they went the better she looked. She took a good bit of pulling up after the race too which is always a good sign and there's no doubt that this exciting filly should stay a mile and a half. One of the more talented horses on this list, no doubt.
INSTIGATION* - 3yo filly by Bated Breath/Rainbow's Edge trained by Ed Dunlop - 059
A Newmarket maiden was the first time we saw this Bated Breath filly on the racecourse and she ran like her price suggested, finishing out the back but far from disgraced only being beaten seven lengths. She showed the benefit of that experience, aswell as a switch of surface and step up in trip when running an extremely pleasing and eyecatching fifth over 7f at Kempton. She took a little while to find her stride but kept on stoutly inside the final furlong, really picking up quite well into a never nearer fifth behind some really nice types including Belle Diva mentioned above as well as the three others mentioned now rated 73, 80 and 83. This effort was followed by her final run to get a mark when nonsensically dropped back to 6f and was slowly away and always outpaced thereafter. This got her qualified for handicaps of which she will start life off 64, which I strongly suspect grossly underestimates her ability, especially as she is stepped up in trip. Could be ready to strike at the first time of asking for her trainer who knows the time of day but one to follow thereafter whatever happens on her reappearance. Probably the best handicapped horse on this list so I make her a must follow.
LUGANO - 4yo colt by Galileo/Swiss Lake trained by Sir Mark Prescott - 9471
For 1m4f and 97 yards of this colt's handicap debut over 1m4f and 98 yards, defeat looked certain. When the pace lifted round the Newcastle home turn he completely lost his position and looked woefully one paced as they came down the straight, shuffled back in the pack with seemingly no response despite being hard ridden. With an awkward looking head carriage and a tendency to lug left handed apparent, he looked one to avoid. About 100 yards out however, his stamina kicked in and something clicked in his mind that it was time to run on. And run on he did, somehow getting up in the final stride for a most unlikely victory. I urge you to watch a replay of it, quite remarkable. He was too green/slow in his maidens to show his true worth and in typical fashion of his trainer, a step up in trip did the trick on his first venture into handicap company. Despite winning, he still appeared to be a big raw backward type and interestingly we haven't seen him since this victory which suggests as much but this means he has been given time to mature over the Winter. A 9lbs rise for that success takes him to a revised rating of 69, which given the manner of this victory and the promise of a switch to turf and a step up in trip to bring about plenty more improvement, this is definitely a horse to keep on the right side of this season. Very well handicapped and bucketloads to come - a big staying handicap later in the season could well be on the agenda if he makes the likely progress anticipated.
MACH ONE - 3yo colt by Makfi/Perfect Spirit trained by Clive Cox - 457
Despite his relatively uninspiring form figures, this horse is one I am very much looking forward to seeing now qualified for handicaps. On debut he looked totally clueless and was badly outpaced but did come home quite nicely over a mile at Salisbury, albeit a long way behind the leaders. That said, everything he ran against that day has since won and the winner Salouen subsequently placed in Group 1 company. Next time out he ran in what looks an even stronger maiden, coming home in fifth behind credible Derby candidate Monarch's Glen, the exciting Frankel colt Count Octave as well as a promising type of Ralph Beckett's who also features on this list later on. He showed up well for a long way though and it was a nice improvement from his debut where he appeared a lot more professional, though still some way off the finished article. His final run in maiden company was in another deep contest, this time at Nottingham when sent to the front and showing up well before gradually weakening into seventh, beaten about eight lengths. On the back of his maiden efforts, the handicapper allotted him a mark of 65 which I think is very exploitable indeed. Bearing in mind that it is likely that he will have been brought along with handicaps in mind, I think he rates as a very appealing proposition to follow through the handicap ranks this season as he progresses with his racing.
REALLY SUPER - 3yo filly by Cacique/Sensationally trained by Ralph Beckett - 4
This filly probably went into a couple of notebooks after her very pleasing debut run when staying on eyecatchingly well over 9f at Goodwood last September. Despite showing signs of inexperience and being well back in the field, Really Super picked up very well inside the final couple of furlongs, making relentless progress and going on at the finish. The form looks good too with the winner Monarch's Glen looking like a smart prospect after making a mockery of his opening handicap mark of 87, while the third Count Octave has since won a maiden too. Her pedigree and her debut run suggest she will come into her own over middle distances and she can win a maiden on her reappearance before going on to better things.
RICHIE MCCAW - 4yo gelding by Zamindar/Cochin trained by Ian Williams - 51344
I doubt this horse will have made any horses to follow list this season whatsoever; after all what's the appeal of a 77 rated gelding by Zamindar? That said he was well thought of in his early days with Mark Johnston and won a Chelmsford maiden in decisive fashion beaten a couple of horses now rated in the 80's. After that victory, he could never stay sound and his problems meant he was off the track for nearly a year, in that time being switched to his current trainer. He reappeared with a decent though well beaten third in a 10f handicap at Doncaster before a much improved run over the same distance at Sandown, outpaced before staying on well inside the final furlong to finish a never nearer 4th beaten a length. A step up in trip looked likely next time out but he was kept to 10f when sent off joint favourite, keeping on at the one pace for forth behind some useful types. (rated 88-90) There should be a bit of improvement to come on that basis, especially for one so lightly raced. With the horse having reportedly come back in a much bigger and stronger individual and having got over his niggly problems, he rates as one to keep an eye out for this summer, especially if stepped up in trip which I think could suit. In the care of one of the shrewdest trainers around, this horse is certainly in the right hands to live up to his early promise and any market support would likely be significant on reappearance.
SABADOR* - 3yo gelding by Kendargent/Sabadora trained by Ed Walker - 41
Ed Walker usually leaves his debutants with plenty to work on and this French bred gelding was no different, showing the benefit of his first run at two and a gelding operation when winning in quite taking style in a Kempton maiden on his first 3yo start last month. Despite taking a very keen hold early on, he settled down at halfway before making his move inside the final two furlongs when picking up nicely, quickening and extending throughout the final furlong to win in decisive fashion, going away. He clearly had plenty left in the tank as his rider almost completed another circuit before he could pull him up to return to the winners enclosure. The form has yet to really be tested but has since stood up a bit with the forth placed horse winning on handicap debut next time out and the fifth coming close to doing the same and I really feel Sabador has been let in lightly off 78. The manner of his victory suggests he has plenty more to give and a step up in trip is very likely to bring about further improvement provided he settles a little better. To run as keen as he did early on and then quicken as he did for pressure suggests his mark is very lenient and he is must follow as he climbs through the handicap rankings.
SCUZEME - 3yo gelding by Kheleyf/Barbieri trained by David Barron - 5812
This horse had been showing plenty at home before making his 2yo debut and was well supported into odds on to make a winning start to his racing career. However, he finished tailed off last and it was a similar story next time when the same happened to an even greater extent. He was put away, seemingly too weak and backward to show his true ability on the racecourse. With a holiday under his belt, a gelding operation performed and some physical and mental maturion completed, he returned a totally different proposition when heavily backed and bolting up in a Newcastle maiden. He tanked his way through the race before cruising through and putting the race to bed in a matter of strides when asked to quicken. It was a taking performance and he was allotted a mark of 80 to start his career in handicaps. After three months off the track he reappeared at Nottingham last week, opening at around 2/1 when the markets first went up. By post time he was on offer at an amazing 9/1 - quite the drift and it told, as he was held up in rear and left with plenty to do, never looking like getting to the winner. He still beat the other twelve home and stayed on encouragingly all the way to the line. The betting pre-race and the way he shaped during it suggests he'll really come on for that run and is definitely one to watch out for next time out. Unexposed and plenty of juice in his mark, he's definitely one to add to your tracker for the coming season.
SURREY HOPE - 3yo colt by Lemon Drop Kid/She Be Classy trained by Joseph Tuite - 61
This American bred colt was a 66/1 poke on debut in a Newbury maiden last October when shaping with huge promise, held up in rear, green when first asked for an effort but with the penny dropping late on and him seeing his race out nicely for a never nearer sixth behind a few with previous experience. He was then put away before reappearing with a decisive victory switched to the all-weather at Kempton for his second start over a mile. Keen early but soon settled in nicely behind the leaders, travelling powerfully turning in before being shaken up and sprinting clear inside the final furlong. Visually impressive and well regarded by his trainer, he appeals as a horse with plenty more to come and a mark of 81 could have him let in lightly. He is being aimed at a handicap on Craven day at Newmarket and is likely to give a bold showing. Worth a follow but I have a niggling concern that he may need artificial surfaces to be seen to best effect.
The List:
Al Hamdany - 650752
Apres Midi - 336817
*Belle Diva - 0
Costa Percy - 11231
Danielsflyer - 10085
Entangling - 21
Horseplay - 144
*Instigation -
Lugano - 11135
Mach One - 053
Really Super - 4344232
Richie McCaw - 55
*Sabador - 210
Scuzeme - 67
Surrey Hope - 131
* = Must Follow
Form: 636401125370403111115041681043450328317527231515523213
Winners:
Danielsflyer 25/1
Horseplay 11/2
Sabador 9/4
Costa Percy 8/1
Surrey Hope 8/1
Lugano 2/1
Lugano 1/1
Lugano 4/11
Costa Percy 5/1
Apres Midi 4/1
Costa Percy 7/2
Entangling 4/5
Surrey Hope 11/4
LSP:
