CAPPELANUS is an unlucky horse with quite a confusingly troubled history. He has been tried over many different distances, for many owners and trainers, on every going you can imagine and seems to act well on anything proven by his wins on Heavy, Soft and Standard ground (A/W) though I think he is a good ground horse. After going very close recently; once almost on the bridle in final furlong and cruising when the door was firmly shut on him ruining his chance, once when the jockey seemed to not want to win and once when he went down by a head. 222 on a formbook is off putting but a few key changes today will in my opinion, bring about a change of luck and a well deserved victory. Firstly Shane Kelly. How he has come about this ride I don't know but this has to be a positive thing. Renowned for his masterful rides on tricky customers, he is the man for the job. Whilst Cappelanus isn't a quirky sort as such, he is proving a hard-to-win-with type and we may see another masterclass in horsemanship on Monday and I think this one could be hard on the bridle while others are struggling. That's the plan anyway! ;-) Another big difference is that this is his first flat run on turf since being hammered on heavy ground in Ireland last Summer and the firmer ground today will probably suit as mentioned. His last race was actually at Haydock over the jumps where he was comfortably beaten, but the race was good quality and higher than he has ever contested on the flat. He has been given a short break to freshen him up as he had a busy March (four races) and he looks set to go mightily close today in a weak looking race. Regarding the dangers, nothing stands out particularly though it is a fairly tight market. At 6/1 in a 8 runner race (three places) he looks nailed on for a place and I expect him to be winning this weakish looking race.
FINLODEX is another runner that caught the eye in a desperately weak race at Bath. The lightly raced chestnut ran in a very strong race for the grade last time against three who have won once since and three who have won twice since that race. Therefore six subsequent winners were in that race and Monday should see that rise to seven. Worth noting he finished forth behind one of the dual subsequent winners and two who have gone on to win once since. In other words she had two dual subsequent winners along with another one who has gone on to win again, all behind him. This looks very strong form. Incidentally Shane Kelly is in the saddle again; as I mentioned on Twitter, he has some very interesting rides at Bath on Monday. Aside from the last race I mentioned, he has shaped as though his turn is coming, although admittedly he is a 10 race maiden. He looks ready for a stiff test on good ground on turf and has been off the track for a few months, though this looks to be another advantage as the last time he had a similar break, returning over a mile, he went very close finishing half a length behind a horse owned by The Queen. (thought this was interesting) Another one at a very fair price, 11/2 and he looks another nailed on for a place, and I really fancy he will be going very close indeed in this company, though Spinning Ridge is a massive price and might be worth a small e/w coverbet (16/1)
As you can see by our picks so far, we expect Shane Kelly to have a good day at Bath. Well it doesn't stop there because FOR SHIA AND LULA is overpriced imo and is another horse ridden by him that we fancy. The horse has run some good races though wasn't at his best last time when seventh of seven but that run is easily excused; he was only three lengths behind the winner for a start and secondly as he was in the hands of an apprentice and he can be a tricky ride. I have tracked this horse for a while as I am sure he is capable of much more than he has shown so far. The key to him may be transferring him back on to turf, on which he races off a 10lb lower mark than A/W. In fact, FSAL has never run off a mark this low and is surely ready to strike, despite the favourite looking solid despite a penalty. At worst I expect him to come third, which paying three places at 6/1, you will still show a profit. He just looks one of those horses that the (in form) trainer knows is better than he has shown. You see horses struggling for wins then suddenly three come in three races; he looks like one of those little plots. DM Loughnane is trainer I like actually. He places his horses well, as shown by his 38% strike rate in the last two weeks. He often ends up, whether it is by choice or coincidence, training these quirky types and his primary jockey is the perfect man to do the riding and I will be very disappointed if he doesn't give a very good account of himself in this.
AMOSITE is a horse I have backed before and likely will again. She is a lovely horse and runs at Warwick tomorrow. After winning nicely at Lingfield three starts back she was unsuccessfully tried over a mile, and was quickly reverted back to her ideal 7f. She was going very well and was ready to make her challenge on the re-opposing Maggie Pink when Amosite went wrong and was quickly pulled up. I am certainly not a vet by any means and couldn't find out what went wrong but a burst blood vessel looked the likely cause. Anyway she is fighting fit and back today, raring to go (I hope) over her ideal trip in optimum conditions (good ground) so I expect her to go very well and definitely out-run her massive 16/1 price at time of writing. She has popped up at big prices before (6/1, 16/1, 18/1) and will do again as for some reason people just can't have this horse. Worth noting she was a short head off a 28/1 surprise and twice missed out on a win at 25/1 by a head. So as you can see, she is very unfancied nearly everytime yet almost always out-runs her price in a big way. Assuming she is fully fit she is a very interesting runner, especially with a very eye-catching jockey booking too. Silvestre de Sousa now takes over the reigns though many top jockeys have come and gone so I am not paying too much attention to that. However, she has been with the same trainer from day one over five years ago, and this is something I always like to see. While Monday's race is competitive, expect her to do what she does best and outrun her expectations, a place would be good, a win would be fantastic and I think she has every chance back on turf.
GIN TIME has been an unlucky horse thus far coming second on his three runs. He is weighted to reverse form with Scargill and should do so as he was only nailed on the line last time. Ding Ding might end up being the big threat of those with experience though GT is a fair price and worth one more go before he becomes frustrating, although some may argue he is exactly that already.
SIMPLY A LEGEND is an interesting runner in the bumper at Ffos Las tomorrow. He was well backed last time and at one stage looked all over the winner before a nice prospect took over and won the race infront of an even money shot, with SAL just behind in third. Considering this was his first time at 2m and his massive lack of inexperience, this looks a very good run and with good vibes coming from connections, he should go close for the Alan King/Wayne Hutchinson combination though there will be a Nicky Henderson short priced favourite to overcome yet I fancy he could be the one to beat in this weak looking race.
Despite mentioning on twitter that CLIMAXFORTACKLE looked on the short side, after studying the race I really think he is the one to beat. He is admiraby consistent; finished in top three in last eight runs in a slightly lower grade than this race. Connections obviously feel like he would be better off a low weight in a stronger race than a high weight in a weaker race as he likes to cut them all down late with a powerful surge - great to watch. In fact he is actually 1lb out of the handicap today, and goes off bottom weight, just 8-7, the lightest he has been carrying for a long time. The way he finished last time in a strong race was very eye-catching, especially considering he totally missed the break. He took off like a rocket under apprentice Adam McLean who returns today, meaning with his 7lb claim, CFT runs off a puny weight and should go very very close if he runs up to the standard of his recent runs. In fact, I think he would need to run badly to not win this but I could be wrong, looks solid and a fair price too, despite what I said on Twitter, Ray of Joy being the big danger.
OPEN WATER looks a big price to me tomorrow. When pricing the runners up in my head (something I always do and advise doing yourself) I had OW closely matched with Mean It, with preference for the former as Mean It has only run on softish ground. Was surprised to see Mean It at 6/4 and Open Water at 5/1 and in my head at least this looks well worth taking advantage of. I could be totally wrong but Open Water should be too smart for these as he goes well enough fresh, his yard is in form, he is significantly dropped in grade and he has some really smart form to his name. He flopped last time but likes the quick ground and you feel this C4 race is a stepping stone to bigger things this season, can't see him beaten though may need the run, yet I fancy him to be too classy for the opposition. Was shocked to see he opened at 8/1, that's mad and rightly did not last long, but 5/1 is still great value to me.
Each-Way Lucky 15:
3.10 Bath - Cappelanus @ 7/1
3.40 Warwick - Amosite @ 16/1 WON
4.45 Bath - Finlodex @ 11/2
5.15 Bath - For Shia and Lula @ 6/1 WON
25p e/w pays £2136
Returned £40.75.
Returned £40.75.
Win bet Lucky 15:
2.40 Bath - Gin Time @ 10/3
5.05 Windsor - Open Water @ 5/1
5.20 Kempton - Climaxfortackle @ 3/1
5.25 Ffos Las - Simply a Legend @ 13/2
50p win pays £872
Coverbet single:
4.45 Bath - Spinning Ridge @ 16/1 e/w WON
Be Lucky today.
THT
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