Don't write a blog often these days, mostly due to being so busy but have a bit of spare time this week and really fancy a few at the unique venue that is Goodwood tomorrow. Been some really good racing there as always already this week, despite the fact the bookies are running out of wheelbarrows to fill up already. On to tomorrow.
Trying something a bit different at Goodwood today. Ignoring the prices and their recent form to an extent and purely going on horses with proven course form. At a track like Wolverhampton, course form means nothing, but the unique style of this particular racetrack can make or break a horse, something which I always think is overlooked by the average punter. And it isn't just the horses, some jockeys just can't ride the track, plain and simple. Jim Crowley has a stinking record there for example with just 3.6% of his mounts finishing first, and just one winner there in the past eighteen months.
A piece here from the goodwoodraces.com website which highlights the nature of the course:
'The track at Goodwood is unusual, with a 6 furlong straight which connects at one end to a triangular loop. Undulating ground and tight irregular bends favour elegant, nimble and well balanced horses. High draws are sometimes preferable over longer distances but expect surprises on a course which is hard to handle, even for top horses and jockeys'
Couldn't have put it better myself!
I suppose it is similar to Epsom, another track where course form more often that not comes into play. In fact, a horse that handles Epsom is likelier to handle Goodwood and any course form there is encouraging if a horse is coming here for the first time.
Race 1 14.05:
Two course winners here. Firstly the unexposed Madeed for the in form Meehan yard. Won his maiden here before below par at Newmarket. Bounced back with big run last time when tongue tie applied when staying on well on the wrong side in the Britannia, this looks less competitive and handles the track, least exposed of the field and also been tipped by Pricewise so get on quick. 8/1.
Lyn Valley is the other course winner in here and at 22/1 I can't resist an each way punt with Mr Fanning on board. Recent form uninspiring but only 1lb higher than when winning here a year ago and may have been campaigned with Goodwood in mind, yard does well here and not one to rule out.
Race 2 14.35:
Just one course winner here and that is Jungle Cat. Ran a big race last time when behind reopposing Ivawood and on 3lb better terms. Still improving and at what looks a big 8/1 is surely the each way bet of the race. With that course form and the small 3lb pull, he may just be a bit harder to pass than the prices suggest. 5/2 in the without Ivawood market and it my book that should be 6/4. Worth mentioning too that Hannon is yet to have winner so far this week...
One other danger could be Brian Meehan's intriguing contender. His usually come on massively for their debuts and his first time out winners are usually smart. Could be one step too soon but Fox Trotter is worthy of a coverbet each way at a generous 14/1.
Race 3 15.10:
Three course winners in this one but I don't fancy the Henderson runner so scratched that one. Brown Panther is the classier of the two and won this race last year. The news that they are watering again is a bonus, he wouldn't want it super quick but is 2/2 at the trip and can get back to winning ways after a near miss in France and being outstayed in the Gold Cup. Have to say I expected a shorter price than the 7/2 out there.
The second and more intriguing runner for me is Whiplash Willie. This Andrew Balding trained 6yo has only finished outside the top three once in his last nine races and ran a huge race when staying on strongly late on behind Brown Panther at Sandown in May when coming from quite some way back. He has come back from his injury better than ever (two and a half years off the track) and the return to this venue may bring out further improvement. Again though, rattling ground may be a concern though you would hope he would have a chance if connections let him take his chance. 22/1 looks big for a horse who is still lightly raced and very much unexposed at this trip.
Ignoring races 3-5 as they are maidens or have no horses with course form.
Race 6 16.50:
None of these have course form and I was going to leave it there but Almargo caught my attention. Presumably Fanning had the choice and this horse has won at Epsom. (see earlier comments) He ran a shocker last time over an inadequate trip and on horrible ground and ignoring that he would be the favourite here. Quick ground ideal and 3/3 in 7f handicaps. Very dangerous to rule out for a trainer who does well here and a horse that has already won five times this season. 7/1 and the each way bet of what looks a very winnable race.
Race 7 17.25:
Mr Portman has his horses in rude health and his Balmoral Castle has to be of interest in his current mood in the finale. He won with plenty in hand last time despite the young lad nearly throwing it away(!) and is one of two course (and distance) winners in this race. Whilst this is a step up in grade, the slight drop back in trip will be ideal though to be fair I think he is short enough for a race like this so a no bet for me but definitely a danger to the following contender.
The more interesting runner for me here, especially at the prices has to be the other C/D winner Weapon Of Choice. He ran his best race of the season last time when bouncing back to fom, being held up at the back in a very steadily run race before being hampered and boxed in until staying on encouragingly toward the business end. Been let loose off same mark today and I think he will be dangerous as he has won off higher marks in the past and seems to enjoy tricky tracks like these (also won at Epsom.) At 12/1 he is the each way bet of the day for me though one negative is that the jockey hasn't ridden a winner here at Goodwood from five tries.
Also got two running from the tracker tomorrow. Not sure what to make of Saoi who was, how do I put this, ridden very gently last time(!!) but hopefully come on a bunch for reappearance. Was held up in rear in muddling affair then tenderley ridden staying on encouragingly to only be beaten two lengths. In my mind it was a prep run though not sure this small field will suit that well. This represents a drop in grade though and is massively unexposed on turf. Was in same race as Weapon Of Choice last time so hopefully can advertise the form a bit before that one runs. See how we go but certainly shouldn't be outsider of the field at 7/1 and in terms of value is one of the better bets of the day.
King Of Macedon has a worryingly high head carriage which suggests he isn't that genuine but I thought he had more in the tank last time. He seems to be a very keen sort and is obviously a very proud animal. I posted a tweet that if reverting to front running in a small field I thought he would be hard to pass and hopefully he can do that tomorrow from the rail draw with exactly those conditions. My only worry is that as he is a big, and possibly ungenuine and difficult horse, the track may not be to his liking but lets see anyway. 7/2.
Selections:
14.05 - Madeed 8/1 ew Placed // Lyn Valley 22/1 ew WINNER
14.35 - Jungle Cat 8/1 ew Placed // Fox Trotter 14/1 ew
15.05 - Brown Panther 7/2 Placed // Whiplash Willie 22/1 ew NR
16.50 - Almargo 7/1 ew Placed
17.25 - Weapon Of Choice 12/1 ew
Tracker:
16.40 Saoi 7/1 ew
18.55 King Of Macedon 7/2
NAP: Weapon of Choice 12/1
NB: Saoi 7/1
IWAC: Jungle Cat 8/1 Placed
Good Luck if you take the plunge, certainly punted plenty which is unlike us. These types of days end up being absolutely fantastic or failing spectacularly on their heads but guess that's the game isn't it? Hope there are a few winners in there, all feedback welcome and hope you enjoyed the read.
THT
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