Friday 1 August 2014

Saturday 2nd August

Not a great deal of time to write a full blog today but will still post selections with quick few reasons for choices. Overall been a very profitable Goodwood so far with 14/1 and 22/1 winners with plenty of place money to boot. Not the best yesterday but expect better today.

Race 1 - Slip Sliding Away 25/1 - 4-7 over C/D, claimer takes off 3lbs putting him back to a mark of 82 which he was rated when losing by a short head over inadequate 5f earlier in season. Up in trip, 3lbs off his back and can run as he was expected earlier in week when backed from 14/1 into 13/2 joint favourite for a trainer that does exceptionally well here. Confessional the danger.

Race 2 - Double Bluff 16/1 - Career best when stepped up to 12f last time in a stronger race lumping 10st. Only beaten by a very progressive horse I really like, probably Sir Mark's best, the gigantic Pallasator. Was clear of the third and stayed on really well after attempting to make all. Mr Fanning on board, dropped in grade and has won at the track, some unexposed ones in here and I have Oasis Fantasy down as the main danger but Double Bluff is the no brainer each way play here for me.

Race 3 - The worst Nassau I can remember for a while. Surprised Sultanina isn't favourite so on that basis she is value to me at 9/2 and wouldn't rule out Amazing Maria back in trip as she is the only course winner in the race. If there were 8 runners I would pile into Sultanina as an each way bet to nothing but as there isn't I doubt I will play though she is my likely winner.

Race 4 - Suprised Muthmir opened at 7/1, and to be honest I am still surprised there is 11/2 out there. Very worthy favourite, looked very good at York didn't he? A rating of 92 surely underestimates him and despite the fact he will need a lot of luck, there are no doubts in my mind that this horse is the one to beat. That said, this is the Stewards Cup with 28 runners, a lot of top class sprinters in the field and a bit of a lottery in all honesty. Discussiontofollow is a horse I have followed all season and I'm not deserting him now so he will have some money each way and I know it's terribly boring but I also like another at the top of the market in Alben Star. Asphan Sam and Seeking Magic also have sound claims at slightly bigger prices so at very small stakes I have backed the first three mentioned each way and some tiny combo forecasts and tricasts with the others too; it's a complete lottery make no mistake about it. If Muthmir gets a clear run however, then he'll be hard to peg back imo.

Race 5 - Secret Brief was well backed on debut when running an encouraging third over 6f at Ripon. The Shamardal colt cost £150,000 and connections could start recouping that here. The horse lost action on debut after about a furlong when in the lead, watched it about five times and still can't work out quite what happened. I think the horse jumped at a shadow and then stumbled but I don't really know, maybe Charlie Johnston can enlighten us on the Morning Line? Anyway the horse lost it's postition before staying on again at the end and from stall two, Joe can grab an early position and hopefully stay there this time providing the horse doesn;t fancy another schooling session at the furlong marker. Depends on price though, forecast is 14/1, can't imagine it will be above 8/1, I will take 6/1, no lower as a speculative ew punt in this maiden.

Race 6 - No Bet.

Race 7 - Outer Space still a maiden but some big runs in top races and 83 looks very workable, showed some promise last time too. Groundworker only C/D winner in field and better expected last time when ran a bit flat, wide open and not one I fancy enough to part with my cash just yet, but these two are ones to have a close look at in the prelims.

Tracker:

15.05 Thirsk - Epsom Hill 8/1 NAP - WINNER (13L clear of the third and was well backed)
17.40 Doncaster - Monarch Maid 6/1 (Heavily gambled last time when improved form but ran into one)
20.30 Lingfield - Orders From Rome 11/2 - Placed (Flew home off declining mark lto, new trip, signif. jock booking)
20.30 Lingfield - Bridge That Gap 6/1 (Stormed home off last winning mark lto, dropped in grade, C/D win)

Backed all of the above each way with a reverse forecast in the 20.30 to boot.

Fahey singles and ew trixie:

2.55 Lacing 16/1 ew
3.05 Bayan Kasirga 18/1 ew
6.15 Triggers Broom 8/1 ew

Goodwood selections and coverbets:

14.05 Slip Sliding Away 28/1 ew IWAC - Placed // Confessional 20/1 ew
14.40 Double Bluff 16/1 ew NB - WINNER // Oasis Fantasy 9/1 ew
15.15 Sultanina 11/2 - WINNER
16.25 Secret Brief 10/1 ew

Tracker not been firing of late but really fancy the ones from it tomorrow, am convinced I have the winner of the 20.30, otherwise I may as well give in! GL if you follow us with any.

THT

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