14 individual runners
51 individual runs
17 winners (33%SR)
32 placed (63%SR)
LSP: +41.72pts
A £25 win bet on all the selections would have yielded a profit of £1043 at SP. Hopefully the jumpers can be even more successful.
On to the jumps and I'm afraid I am going to have to recycle last year's intro for this blog, so here goes. It's that time of year when us NH fans are looking forward to the proper jumping season getting started again. I love the flat but my passion like many others is the jumps, we see the horses for longer and we can love them for what they are over many seasons. I've said before that NH is more about love and passion while the flat is more of a business, it's what seperates the two. The longevity of the careers of the animal is also much different, we don't get a chance to love the flat horses like we do the jumpers, the great ones aren't around for long enough. The people involved in jumps racing do it because they love it, not because it's profitable to them, because it very rarely is. The horses are generally bigger, braver and stronger and seeing a thoroughbred soar over a big fence - doing something the horse itself loves doing; there is no greater spectacle in racing. I can't wait for it all to kick off again. And despite what many people say, yes, for a lot of people it IS all about Cheltenham Festival and in my mind there is nothing wrong with that at all. A four day bonanza of world class racing with the best jumps horses in the world doing what they do best, it's a great way to bring the curtain down on the jumps season. (Yes I know there is Aintree and Punchestown too!) Cheltenham is where the majority of owners want runners, it's where the trainers want to train a winner and it's where the jockeys want to ride. When a new horse is bought into a yard, the first thing everyone wants to know is will this horse be the one to take them to the festival. Hopefully a few below can do just that for their connections.
Novice Hurdlers:
Gordon Elliott looks to be going into the jumps season with some serious firepower behind his stable-doors. One of his better prospects wasn't even in his yard a few months ago but the Gigginstown/Mullins fallout left him as the main beneficiary and he was lucky enough to be sent BLOW BY BLOW. This gorgeous son of Robin Des Champs has shown an extremely likeable attitude in his four starts to date, culminating in his 3/4L victory from Moonracer in the Grade 1 bumper at the Punchestown Festival. The form of that race is strong and he can take high order in the novice ranks this season. A tilt at the Albert Bartlett could be the likeliest option in Spring with a pedigree full of staying potential and he could be an even better chaser in time.
DEATH DUTY looks every inch a thorough stayer and chasing will be his game long-term. That said, he should have enough about him to make up into a top class novice hurdler this season. He has a similar profile to stablemate Blow By Blow; indeed he finished second behind him in his final bumper at Fairyhouse. His trainer could have a headache when it comes to March as they both look Albert Bartlett types to me. Gordon Elliott thinks an awful lot of this horse and he won as he liked on his reappearance/hurdles debut. It's possible that ground on the softer side would be his ideal conditions underfoot.
If I had cracked on with this blog a bit earlier we would have already had a 10/1 winner to shout about as someone who knows their onions steered me towards the potential of ELEGANT ESCAPE. Colin Tizzard's exciting 4yo came second in one of the stronger PTP's of last season, finishing behind Samcro who is now with Gordon Elliott. This son of American sire Dubai Destination looked green throughout his rules debut and was described as babyish in the prelims - connections expected him to improve considerably for the run. The huge drift out to 10/1 from 10/3 on course said as much, but he was ridden confidently and travelled strongly, only called upon for an effort after the last where he was merely pushed out without use of the stick. He showed a willing attitude and stuck his neck out to snatch an unlikely looking victory as the second (Persian Delight) was travelling so well until he was challenged up the run in. This horse can be expected to improve considerably through the season as he will come on plenty for his hurdles debut and that PTP form is solid.
ESPOIR DE TEILLEE could be a serious horse. He was in the lead and in command when falling at the last in his sole PTP at Athlacca and was bought for £220k by leading owner Roger Brookhouse at the Goffs Spring sale in May. He will start off in a bumper according to his trainer and could make up into a top class prospect for the expanding Neil Mulholland operation. He's the joint favourite for the Champion Bumper at time of writing but you would expect this horse to be jumping sooner rather than later and in time could be a tip-top chaser down the line. Still very early days but certainly one to look out for first time up in the coming months and he rates as a must follow for the season ahead.*
GIVE ME A COPPER is one of the more exciting novices within the champion trainer's ranks this season and he has a couple of novice hurdle entries this week. Another one who will come into his own over the bigger obstacles in time, this 6yo son of Presenting can still be expected to win some good races this Winter over hurdles. A £270k purchase, he'll want to be half decent and the manner in which he won his Cork bumper suggests it's likely he will be. He's settled in well at Ditcheat and his old trainer, Donal Coffey remarked 'The best we've ever had, a right horse. We'd sell anything for the right price but if he isn't sold soon we'll keep him for the Gold Cup!' Obviously these things should be taken light-heartedly but he's clearly held in some regard. Let's hope he can show on the racecourse what he has been at home.
JENKINS won't escape many horses to follow blogs and it's the same story here. His trainer thinks the world of him and he knows a good horse when he sees one. He pulverised the opposition on his debut at Newbury without breaking sweat, pulling well clear of Cash Again who was subsequently clear of the remainder. He was made odds on for his second start over the sea and really should be two from two but was arguably given a misjudged ride, ridden too agressively and pushed clear 2f out before getting tired and being collared close home. He is a big powerful horse who devours the ground but has a real good turn of foot and plenty of toe to boot. The Supreme looks the likely option for me come March and he has been the subject of glowing schooling reports. A summer on his back will have done him the world of good and he can mature into a star novice hurdler this season. You certainly won't miss him in his races with his striking big white blaze.
MELROSE BOY on the contrary, may not feature so prominently in many people's 'horses to follow' notebooks. He was well fancied on debut but was just a bit outpaced once the leaders quickened inside the 2f pole. He ran with promise, is well regarded at home and can show up a lot better once hurdling. Whilst he may lack some of the potential of a few of these on the list, he is sure to win races this season and can improve with experience. Another horse that ran in the same race on debut was CRUISEAWEIGH. Tom George's Oscar gelding was extremely well backed into 9/4 favouritism from double figure prices overnight and he travelled kindly before taking it up 2f out only to be nailed by Movewiththetimes close home, who has subsequently won a fair novice hurdle as he liked. The pair were a good bit clear and he was clearly showing something at home before his very promising debut effort. The fifth placed horse has come out and won since too and I think the form will work out. I've done a bit of probing and tried to find out some more details about this horse but it seems those associated with the horse want to keep their cards close to their chest about him. I get the impression he is very well thought of and he can win a bumper before going novice hurdling. Two dark horses here, but both ready made winners this season for sure.
SAMCRO could be very good indeed. A £335k purchase by Mags O'Toole on behalf of Gigginstown House Stud, this 4yo won the Monksgrange PTP mentioned above (beating Elegant Escape) and I hate to use the phrase but he really 'could be anything.' A son of Germany like Faugheen, he could be minded this season and could stick to bumpers before embarking on a more serious campaign next year but he will be a fascinating horse in time and one to watch out for when he does make an appearance in the coming weeks.*
I've not been able to find out too much about SECRET INVESTOR but he was chasing Espoir De Teillee home for second before being handed the race when his opponent fell at the last. The buyers seem to rate the form and he was picked up for £175k on behalf of Paul Nicholls in May. He has reportedly been doing things nicely at home, showing a willing attitude and schooling with enthusiasm, though he would be a long way off the finished article. Like many Nicholls sales buys, his long-term future will ultimately be over fences but he's one to look out for and is expected to go novice hurdling straightaway.
Novice Chasers:
ANATOL was very well backed beforehand but looked an utterly terrifying ride on his British/Chase/Stable debut a year ago to the day. Despite reaching for one or two down the back straight, he jumped exceptionally, seeing a stride at the wings a few times showing great scope in the process, though I'm not totally convinced his rider had much control throughout! The horse was totally lit up, ran very keen and went off like a scalded cat in front. With all that being said he still led approaching the last and just got tired upon landing after using all his energy early on, finishing a creditable third to two good horses - a great effort under the circumstances. With this being run over 2m3f, I can see this horse being dropped back to the bare two mile minimum and being extremely hard to peg back off a mark of 135 on reappearance. He reminds me of stablemate Marracudja with his running style and clearly has enough pace and class to be winning off his mark back at 2m, though he could stay further if they can settle him down a bit a home. I urge you to take five minutes out of your day to watch a replay of his run at Ascot if you can, can't imagine Nick Schofield's pants came back the same colour as they went out!
BEAT THAT has always been held in the highest regard by his trainer, Nicky Henderson. He's had his problems and has had a very stop-start career and a horse like this will always come with risks attached. However, his hurdles form was very good, winning two Grade 1 novices and he was as short as 10/1 for the 2015 World Hurdle before a suspensory injury scuppered those plans. He has always been seen as a chaser in the making which make his hurdle exploits all the more encouraging and is reportedly back in work, looking fantastic. It's very reasonable to expect him to need his first run after such a long absence and such a significant injury, but this horse could reach the very top over fences. Don't forget he has had horses like Don Poli and Cole Harden behind him and hopefully he can repay his patient owner's faith throughout the course of the season. He could be minded a bit and end up quite lightly raced this year but the RSA would be a possibility, though he did skip the festival for Aintree/Punchestown options in 2014 so it wouldn't be a surprise to see a similar campaign this time around if they can keep him sound.
2m4f looks to be the trip that ROCK THE KASBAH will be campaigned over this season; his first over the bigger obstacles. A Grade 3 winner over hurdles, he was impressive on chase debut when holding off Our Kaempfer, Theinval and the exciting Clan Des Obeaux who himself should come on for the run and improve throughout the season. He seems to go on any ground and this 150-rated hurdler has potential to reach high rank in the novice chasing division this season. A tilt at the JLT could be the long term plan and Richard Johnson (referring to Hobbs yard) has said 'he is as exciting a horse as we've got.' He comes across as an uncomplicated and very straightforward type and there's no reason he can't turn out to be a top class chaser in time.
A forth and final Gordon Elliott horse here in the shape of SUTTON PLACE. There are very high hopes for this horse this season at Cullentra House and the plan is to go novice chasing. He ran a most promising race on debut when an unfancied 50/1 poke rattling home all too late for third behind Anibale Fly who was last seen winning a Grade B Hurdle at the Punchestown Festival off 135. He then won his bumper as he liked before following up in Listed/Grade 2 company back over hurdles. Connections are wasting no time sending him chasing and in time he'll want a trip. He should be seen just before Christmas and the JLT/RSA could well be on the agenda if this lad progresses as those close to the horse think he might. My third and final must follow.*
Handicappers:
My sole handicapper to follow this season is the talented DOUBLE SHUFFLE. A two time winner over hurdles, he was quickly sent novice chasing by connections, running in two hot contests around Cheltenham finishing second behind Art Mauresque and forth behind More Of That. He was eased in grade to gain his first win over fences at Ludlow beating Colin Tizzard's Fourth Act in workmanlike fashion before a superb run at this year's Cheltenham Festival, finishing a five lengths third behind Ballyalton and Bouvreuil in the Listed Novices Handicap Chase. He ran again at Ayr but ran a bit flat and was sent out for his holiday. Another summer on his back would have done him the world of good and despite some blunders he reappeared with a fine effort, again behind old foe Art Mauresque, doing all his best work at the finish, beaten a neck at the line. He can be expected to come on for that run and is being aimed at the Betvictor Gold Cup in just under two weeks time. This Milan 6yo looks to hold an outstanding each way chance off a mark of 145 and should be going close in top handicaps over 2m4f this season.
Ones that got away:
Robinsfirth was a must-follow for me last year but was ruled out through injury. After speaking to someone close to the yard and hearing about his endless list of problems with different injuries, I've decided to not include him this time around. If he makes it to the racecourse I hope he can show the ability he had been at home before his issues but it may be that we never see the horse those close to him once thought he had the potential to be, which is a real shame.
Clan Des Obeaux strikes me as one to keep on side this year. Still very lightly raced and the Triumph Hurdle form is solid enough. They are wasting no time sending him chasing but I was a bit underwhelemed with his debut over the bigger obstacles, despite the fact he would have needed the run. Surely plenty more to come though and one to keep in mind though he doesn't make the final fifteen.
Robin Roe looks one of Dan Skelton's better novice hurdle prospects this season and he'd be my sixteenth if I could have one extra on the list. He was very impressive on hurdles debut when well supported and could take high rank in the novice hurdling division this season. I know he is well regarded, especially by the trainer's brother and he is worth keeping a close eye out for this season as he learns his trade and improves with experience.
Asum is another of Dan Skelton's exciting novices and is clearly well thought of. He was well punted on hurdling debut but got going too late and was quickly put away after finishing second behind Clondaw Cracker in a decent enough looking bumper. Reportedly a keen-goer at home, he should have learnt plenty from his debut and make up into a nice novice hurdler. He has been the subject of good schooling reports and will go hurdling right away,
Fifteen to follow:
Anatol -
Beat That - 6
Blow By Blow -
Cruiseaweigh - 1P73
Death Duty - 111F3
Double Shuffle - P512P
Elegant Escape - 14577
*Espoir De Teillee - 61
Give Me A Copper - 161
Jenkins - 141
Melrose Boy - 323
Rock The Kasbah - 324126
*Samcro - 111
Secret Investor - 2
*Sutton Place - 11P
* = Must Follow
Form: 133P2115311P711214241611651F32277P11111636P
Must follow form: 1161111P
Winners:
LSP:+15.23pts
Winners:
Cruiseaweigh 1/1
Elegant Escape 8/1
Samcro 4/9
Jenkins 10/11
Death Duty 11/10
Give Me A Copper 4/6
Give Me A Copper 4/6
Death Duty 6/4
Samcro 1/3
Double Shuffle 8/1
Death Duty 4/6
Sutton Place 4/6
Rock The Kasbah 2/1
Death Duty 4/6
Sutton Place 4/6
Rock The Kasbah 2/1
Sutton Place 4/1
Espoir De Teillee 10/1
Jenkins 1/4
Samcro 8/13
Jenkins 1/4
Samcro 8/13
Give Me A Copper 9/4
LSP:
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