Morning all. Yesterday was a strange one at Kempton with just the one favourite (odds on) obliging and on reflection as I already mentioned on Twitter I should not have bet. In hindsight the races were competitive, trappy little affairs and any of the runners could have won. So my apologies for that. However Annacotty won which would have been my choice if we were only guaranteed one winner as the horse and his owners/trainers mean something to me personally. I was delighted for them and he looks a really nice prospect. Seymour Eric's 50lb worth of penalties since his winning run started finally caught up with him though I haven't actually seen the race so not sure how far he was beaten. AP found himself smoking a cigar on the favourite again but we all are used to that now.
Melvin the Grate was arguably the most interesting runner for us yesterday as the random text with the 'guaranteed winner' came up trumps as he went in at around the 5/2 mark. I didn't back it as I was sceptical, but I know a few did, so it was worthwhile me sharing what he had sent me at least. Wonder where this will go next, will certainly pay more attention next time if there is a next time, that's for sure.
We move on to today's racing, nothing I fancy really, one of those weird days. Very competitive stuff at Wolves, the 15.05 should be a cracker, will happily watch that one with no money on the line, claims can be made for almost every runner. As I mentioned on Twitter, anyone who picks out the winner of that one in my eyes should take a bow. If I was pushed for a pick I would go with Reginald Claude but only because I have a love for the horse. The way he has to be ridden, in case you don't know is to deliver him very very late on, well inside the final furlong, and he responds like Rachael Kneller presses an accelerator, he flies! Sometimes too late however like in the last few runs he has had. Looking over all his form you see he has been described as running on late or staying on well, or running on strongly but as he is delivered so late his winning margins are very narrow. Quirky character to say the least! Anyway, I will be cheering him on but there are many in the race I have backed before. Might even have a few quid on him each way, especially if he drifts a little! Good Luck if you are brave/foolish enough to try and pick a winner out of that one!
Was going to leave the racing altogether but then I saw the name Icanboogie. Christ knows what attracted me to have a look at his form but I had heard of him and something made me have a look. Anyway I spotted that he has only one recent previous run at Kempton where he finished 2nd. Okay, great, so what? Well the winner of that race was Taxiformissbyron who then went on to win again and then lost by a nose the next time. Hmm I thought pretty good form. By the way this was before I looked at any prices. Then a few names he beat that day caught my eye. Firstly was Poetic Verse. He finished a couple behind Icanboogie but then went on to win his next race, then was second to Gabrial the Duke who then himself went on to win his next race and then a close second the race after. GTD runs earlier in the day at Wolves so him going well will frank the form a little bit more. (Still with me?) Going back to Poetic Verse. After his win and close second after being beaten by Icanboogie he then went on to win another race. But that's not all. Precision Strike, who finished a good five or six lengths behind Icanboogie that day has since gone on to win his last two races, all be it not the strongest of affairs. So I thought it was at least worth checking the prices.
I should point out Robert Tart is on board today, the same jock who was riding in the race I mentioned. You should also note that with the seven pound claim taken into account the horse is effectively a stone lighter than anything else unless I am mistaken and we all know the boy can ride and is well worth his claim. So in my mind the horse should be around a 16/1 shot. I find it is always good to price up the horses in your mind before looking at the actual prices as seeing the prices when picking a horse can influence your judgement. So I went to oddschecker and when I saw he was the outsider of the lot at 33/1 I got a little bit excited, probably too excited actually. After all he is the lowest rated horse in the field.
I know many will think, well you are only looking at one race, what about his recent poor form? I would ask the same question. Firstly I think course form is a lot more important than people think. We saw it at the festival recently, nearly all winners had previous course experience. Kempton is also ran the other way to Lingers and Wolves and while many people think so what, I think it can make a huge difference.
However, we can't get away from his recent bad runs. Last time out was by far his worst run. A tailed off fifth in a weakish sort of race. However, that was his first ever experience on the Southwell fibresand surface and he clearly didn't take a liking to it. We see time and again prolific winners at Kempton/Lingers/Wolves go off to Southwell and end up nowhere and vice-versa. Some horses take to it, some don't. So in my mind I am completely forgiving him that one. So going back to his last race on AW... A new jockey was tried and he came last of four, fairly tailed off but he wasn't being ridden after he was beaten. He was again behind Taxiformissbyron, who missed out by a nose (mentioned earlier) and Byroness who has since gone on to complete a hattrick since then. So again the form is fairly decent. Also we know that Icanboogie can get to a length or so of TFMB so that was not a true reflection in my opinion as TFMB has improved a great deal with experience.
Anyway I could ramble on all morning but will summarize now. Today's race is probably the weakest Icanboogie has contested in. I think he is capable of beating all these except the favourite and I will be surprised if it doesn't start odds on. However, if the favourite runs a bad one I genuinely believe our sole selection could be there at the business end. Remember, all he has to do to outrun his price is not finish last, as he is the outsider of the whole lot and I am very confident he can beat a fair few of these. My point is, is that he is overpriced, in my opinion at least, therefore I will be backing him each way at 33/1. Not often I back a price as big as this on a Thursday evening at Kempton but I think we may be on to something here, I bloody better hope so as this is one of the longest write ups I have ever done for a horse! However I think it was needed to explain why I am picking a 33/1 shot. Anyway, just stick a quid on each way for yourselves and watch it go close, that's the plan anyway! Tart on board, Tart's claimer, stone lower than rivals, solid form, solid course form, weakish race are the positives. The only real negative I can see is the fact that this trip is slightly longer than he has been tried at before, something that I haven't mentioned yet, but this does concern me. However I am still very happy to back at 33's, whether you are or not I don't know! I just hope it doesn't all go to pot, but to be honest I will be delighted if he places and you never know, you won't ever hit a 33/1 winner if you don't back any horses at said price!
20.00 Kempton - Icanboogie @ 33/1 (1pt e/w)
Good Luck all!
THT
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