Monday 8th April

A couple of nice little cards on the all-weather tracks at Kempton and Wolverhampton on Monday. Going to the races at Wolverhampton for the first time tomorrow and I am delighted with the card, some really nice little races and a few horses I like including my lucky horse Lucky Dan who I will probably back when I get there as I always do. Despite it being a Monday afternoon on the A/W I am still excited and can't wait to get there and hopefully pick some winners. Will save most of my bets for on the course but have already had a few bets and they are below. Will update what I am doing and why from the course tomorrow through the afternoon for those interested!

Horses to Watch:

Some very interesting runners who I will be keeping an eye on tomorrow. I may even have tiny win bets on them, haven't decided yet. They are the following:

Kempton 14.20 - Luv U Honey - This one is a half sister to four winners, most recognisably is probably Luv U Whatever who has been winning some races recently. Could go close on debut as two out of four siblings won as two year olds. Looks like it will open up around the 10/1 mark which could be worth a little e/w bet though only two places paid with the odds on fav likely to fill one of them.

Wolves 16.10 - Gin Time - Most will be familiar with the silks and name of this one. Lager Time and Vodka time are others with similar names for the David Evans team. Gin Time went well on debut and despite being a bit green stayed on towards the end although was a few lengths behind the winner. She is sent out for a try on the all weather today in a weaker race and should have a good chance with normal improvement expected. The likely favourite is another David Evans horse who was third at Kempton last month. Kodafine also stayed on very well, arguably better than anything and an Evans one-two looks likely, thought Vodka Chaser wouldn't surprise anyone if he was good enough on debut. Just interested to see the outcome of this race, not having a bet.

Kempton 16.20 - Poetic Verse - Looking back, this horse was overpriced for his last race when he stayed on better than anything under a powerful Atzeni ride, though easy to say knowing result! That race looks stronger than this one too and despite the fact that everything fell into place for him that day he is probably a little overpriced in this one too given none of the opposition have won over this distance. Huge early money for Botti horse but Poetic Verse has every chance of going close again, this time with Ryan Moore in the saddle.  At 6/1 at time of writing, a small each way bet looks worthwhile yet only small stakes.

Wolves 16.40 - Harrogate Fair - Exposed but has won here before and could get involved and ultimately looks a tad overpriced despite only 2 places paid. A tiny e/w bet could be worthwhile but still undecided, yet this horse went in for us at 14/1 a while back so am happy to give another go. 20/1

Kempton 17.20 - Sand Grouse - This Botti horse ran only three days ago when forth in a stronger race over 7f. Connections have sent him out again very quickly at a shorter trip and he looks to be a bit overpriced, which isn't a surprise given he has been a beaten favourite on a few occasions. Not betting but interested to see how he goes. Early indications suggest around a 7/1 - 8/1 pricetag, something like that but can't be sure as limited markets available at time of writing.


Horses to Back:

On to my bets for the day. As I said will update any additions from the course tomorrow but have done a few tonight that you may be interested in.

Sam Spade looks worth another chance as he has been quickly sent back out by connections after being well backed last time and just failing over course and distance. He still has plenty of improvement in him and his last run was his best run yet and Ryan Moore takes over the reigns today. Whether connections weren't happy with his ride by Richard Hughes last time I don't know but a swift reappearance and jockey change mean this could be the case. When a horse is heavily backed and only loses by a neck he is probably worth sticking with and this is another weak looking affair and goes into a multiple or two. Beau Select is a big danger and overpriced as he went very close over track and trip in February and an eachway coverbet on him is something worth doing at 8/1. 15.50 Kempton.

West Leake is an admirably consistent horse and runs in a very competitive race at Kempton tomorrow. One of nine C and D winners in the decent field, he is currently the joint favourite at 5/1. His 2212 form could easily read 1111 as he has only gone down by 3/4L or less on all three occasions in defeat. He stays on well but sometimes gets going slightly too late but is worth a decent each way stake at the prices. I could play it safe and look at the place market but I genuinely think he has a great chance of winning so going for the slightly bigger payout by going e/w. This ensures you get your money back should he only manage a place which I am confident he will unless he runs a shocker or runs into a lot of trouble in-running. Midnight Feast looks a danger as he was a close third off a lowering mark in blinkers last time and a lot of money has come for him already with Luke Morris in the saddle. Connor Dore's horses are in good order and despite some uninspiring form, Satwa Laird could get involved too. 16.50.

Thomas Brown can maintain his astonishing 100% strike rate for Ismail Mohammed tomorrow on likely favourite Admiralty. He won comfortably on his reappearance from a four month winter break and will be even sharper today. He is in cracking form and won the last time he was here. One of only two C and D winners in the race, the other being Guru of Gloom, he has a great chance of completing a hattrick and probably won't be finished at three on the bounce should he achieve that. Threats include the well punted Peace Seeker who shaped well on his return and was heavily backed. He will give Admiralty a race at least but I have every faith Admiralty is the one to beat. I am having a coverbet however, on a horse already mentioned. The Guru of Gloom as I said is the only other C and D winner and looks massive at 16/1 and could run a big race. He has a great chance of running into the places at least in my opinion as he is 1/1 at the course in the past year or so.

Top Trail is one I pondered over as his win last time was nothing that special. Saying that he did beat an odds on favourite by a fair distance and that was his return run from a six month break so actually it may have been more impressive than it looks on paper. He faces similar class opposition on Monday though Hazard Warning is a danger. He has won his last two over C and D and I am surprised his price isn't as closely matched with the favourite yet that shows there is already plenty of market confidence in our pick. Saying that, HW has been raised 17lb in the process of those wins and might just find our fancy too strong today as Top Trail will be a lot sharper for his easy reappearance win. 16.40.


Singles:

Wolves 15.10 - The Guru of Gloom @ 16/1 e/w (coverbet) Placed
Kempton 15.50 - Beau Select @ 8/1 e/w (coverbet) Placed


Double:

Sam Spade and Admiralty @ 5/1 WON


Trebles:

Sam Spade, Admiralty, Top Trail, West Leake.


Be Lucky everyone, will likely have a little flutter on each race as I will be at the track, will update best I can. Good Luck if you fancy any of our picks and decide to do them yourself! You may want to do a forecast with our coverbets or an e/w double but above is just what I have done!

THT