Another good day yesterday with winners at 11/4, 3/1, 10/3 and 8/1 and a 12/1 shot placing for each way returns added to the 3/4 on the Lucky 15 which returned £125 for a £1 stake. My NAP (Zaplamation) NB (Fieldgunner Kirkup) and third best bet (Prodigality) all went in. I was delighted with this but also quite annoyed as I always do a NAP and NB double and very often a treble which yesterday would have paid at 16/1 and 64/1 respectively if I had gone for them. That's racing I suppose! Also just realised this evening I had forgot to label my best bets appropriately and I keep forgetting to do this, won't happen again! Always find it good to make your best chance known as not everyone can back every horse. Anyway we hope to build on another great start to a week (always have good days on Monday's for some reason) with the horses below. I have plenty of time to explain my selections today, been very busy recently, I always try and explain why am backing a horse. Will also make sure I try to post a daily double and Lucky 15 as often as possible as I know some people like to just get involved with the multi bets but I am not advising anything unless I am 100% confident with it. Good Luck if you jump on today.
The 14.40 Exeter is a cracking little race for the grade and I don't think any can be ruled out. Venetia Williams has Saroque, the favourite at the time of writing who won comfortably on boxing day though has a 7lb rise to deal with here. Whether that will be enough to stop her I am not sure but this race certainly looks tougher, so despite the never out of form trainer and the recent improvement shown by the horse I am taking her on. Paul Nicholls has an entry but Watergate Bay hasn't raced since winning last time at Taunton in 2011 so I find it hard to find a reason to back him. The admirably consistent Ballinhow Star looks like he will give another solid account and you cant possibly rule out Lord Protector, Bygones Soveriegn or Shannon Spirit. A competitive race then, but two horses are overpriced for me. Xaarcet being one of them. He won when he was last here, over C and D then went on to complete a hattrick before finding 2m too short last time and coming home third. He is upped in trip again today and despite preferring the ground on the softer side he has his young claimer back on today which will help his cause and should go well. 12/1 looks a very appealing e/w proposition and can't say I would be surprised to see him in the winners enclosure as I believe he still has more to offer. The other one I think will outrun his price is Phone Home. He went in the notebook a month or two ago and despite not winning yet, he will be winning races soon imo. Yes his handicap debut was disappointing but something wasn't right from the very start that day and he was pulled up a fair way out, plus conditions weren't right for him anyway, in a better quality race than this one too. Wayne Hutchinson is an interesting jockey booking too, hinting that he carries some expectation today and as he was a close second to a hot favourite last time he raced here (Over C and D) I am very hopeful. 20/1 looks great e/w value to me.
Bentley should probably be a shorter price in the last at Southwell. 10/1 looks very generous for the Brian Baugh trained C and D winner. He went down by only a nose when heavily supported last time after his encouraging second behind the prolific Our Ivor the time before after a year off the track. He has the beating of a few of these on those two runs alone and his last effort on the quicker polytrack surface can be ignored as fibresand is his much preferred surface. He is sure to go close with Robert Tart in the saddle again and looks a great each way proposition in a weakish sort of race yet the Hans Adielsson trained favourite is very much the one to beat after his rout last time, if taking to this surface of course.
Chella Thriller is just about worth backing each way at the price in the Kempton opener. He is on a hattrick with George Baker in the saddle and should go very close. His below par run can be forgiven last time, and he looks to go better than course specialist Having A Ball judged on recent running with Tenure. CT was ridden in a strange way by a different jockey last time as he was encouraged to take a couple of lengths lead early when he is, in my opinion a better horse coming from the rear with a late swoop. He stays this trip out very well and his lack of Kempton experience looks the only worry, yet he should be going close in this company with Baker back in the saddle.
Divine Rule looks to have a good chance in the 16.30 Kempton tomorrow but he is probably priced about right. Lord of the Dance owes me absolutely nothing after his win at a huge 20/1 recently, though things fell exactly right that day. He is 14/1 in a weaker race today and I am happy to back him again at a double figure price which looks very generous considering he won over C and D in December.
Dishy Guru showed a glimmer of his old form which saw him win back to back races last Spring when six lengths third last time behind Elusive Hawk. Considering he reared in the stalls and was away very slowly he did very well rallying in the closing stages running on better than anything in a decent race with a subsequent 5L winner behind him. He hasn't been far off the pace the few races before that either and it could be his turn today in a competitive yet trappy sort of race. He will get a good pace today too which will suit him but Invigilator looks a threat partnered with Martin Dwyer once more. 11/1 for Dishy looks big though and I think he might go very close.
Below are the selections, 1pt e/w on all singles. Not going to label NAP's and NB's as they are mostly outsiders but Dishy Guru and Bentley would probably be my best value bets.
14.00 Kempton - Chella Thriller @ 6/1 e/w WON
14.40 Exeter - Xaarcet @ 12/1 e/w
14.40 Exeter - Phone Home @ 20/1 e/w
16.30 Kempton - Lord of the Dance @ 14/1 e/w Placed
17.00 Kempton - Dishy Guru @ 11/1 e/w
17.20 Southwell - Bentley @ 10/1 e/w
Longshot each way Lucky 15:
Xaarcet, Bentley, Lord of the Dance, Dishy Guru.
Returns £9750+ for a 25p e/w stake!!
Longshot each way double @ 131/1:
Bentley and Dishy Guru.
Shorties Treble @ 12/1:
15.50 Southwell - Even Stevens NR
16.20 Southwell - Elusive Hawk WON
17.40 Exeter - Jupiter Rex NR
Good Luck all.
THT
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